SotT Dynasty Rankings Runningback (2009) (1 Viewer)

[FreeBaGeL]

Does this number apply to RB's in their first year as a full time back?Ive never really bought into that theory to begin with. So if a RB has 370 carries, he is more likely to be a bust the following year than a RB who only had 350 carries?

You raise a good point. I don't buy that 370 is a "magic number," but there's no denying that the RB highway is littered with guys who have hit that number.

So if one time I looked at an apple tree and an apple fell, does that mean I caused it? Or maybe if I only choose to remember the times I saw an apple fall I'll be convinced it only happens when I look at it.Here's to hoping Turner only gets 369 carries this year so I can feel good about him next season.

If over a 10 year period 95% of the time you looked at an apple, that particular apple fell from the tree then yeah, you might want to check your midiclorian count.I realize correlation does not necessarily equal causation, but when something continues to be correlated over and over and over again over a long period of time you have to wonder if you've found one of the cases where it does.

 

[iSnitch]

Then what are the guys who came up with this theory think the reason is for it?

A lot of carries = a lot of hits = wear & tear. Body breaks down and future injuries are incurred.

I think that is the simple explanation. If a guy had 370 carries last year, he's going to get a lot this year and that leads to more opportunities to get hurt.

The more carries you receive the more likely you are to get hurt. In my opinion this whole theory is absolute nonsense. Correlation does not equal causation.

Unless you care to explain to me how LJ getting a fat lineman rolling on his leg had anything to do with the number of carries he had the season before.

Also, I don't remember Sjax getting 370 carries last year. How many did Marion Barber have? Earnest Graham, Fred Taylor, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Marshawn Lynch, Brian Westbrook, Brandon Jacobs...if any of these players fit into this mythical 370 carry breakdown number, many posters would be screaming about the accuracy of this theory. Instead, they're just called injury prone or some other reason for them getting hurt crops up.

The fact of the matter is, football is a violent sport and running back is an incredibly violent position. With each and every carry a rb takes there is a chance they are going to get hurt. The more carries, the more chances to get hurt.

As far as Turner getting lots of carries being a bad thing, all I can say is WHAT??? A coach who builds a team into a smashmouth football team, gives his starting rb 20+ carries per game, all the goal line work...and we're not drooling over this guy because why? If you look at the recent games it appears they may be getting Turner involved in the passing game as well.

 

[puckalicious]

Does this number apply to RB's in their first year as a full time back?Ive never really bought into that theory to begin with. So if a RB has 370 carries, he is more likely to be a bust the following year than a RB who only had 350 carries?

You raise a good point. I don't buy that 370 is a "magic number," but there's no denying that the RB highway is littered with guys who have hit that number.

So if one time I looked at an apple tree and an apple fell, does that mean I caused it? Or maybe if I only choose to remember the times I saw an apple fall I'll be convinced it only happens when I look at it.Here's to hoping Turner only gets 369 carries this year so I can feel good about him next season.

If over a 10 year period 95% of the time you looked at an apple, that particular apple fell from the tree then yeah, you might want to check your midiclorian count.I realize correlation does not necessarily equal causation, but when something continues to be correlated over and over and over again over a long period of time you have to wonder if you've found one of the cases where it does.

I think what you are missing is that RB's get injured every year regardless of carries. Sure the "hit rate" appears higher as you pick a higher cutoff point but the sample size dramatically decreases and the standard deviation dramatically increases. There is no statistical confidence in this theory. For every RB you "predict" will have a bad season there are probably twice as many with a bad season you did not "predict". I'm not attacking you personally so please don't take this the wrong way.I'll agree that an increased # of carries will raise the risk of injury. But no 2 players are alike, and no 2 situations are alike so I don't put much stock into "x carries = y% risk" types of theories.

 

[Max Power]

not to throw water on the fire here, but is Steven Jackson really worthy of the #2 spot?! how so?

lets see now, aside from one good year , 2006, where he rushed for 1528 yards and 13 tds , 4.4 avg, and another 90 receptions, he's been very plain jane in every other NFL season in which he's played.

2004, 134 att, 673 yards 4 tds. 5.0 avg.

2005, 254 att,1046 yards, 8 td, 4.1 avg per carry.., 43 rec for 320 yards. 2 rec td.

2007, 237/1002/5, 38/271/1, 4.2 avg

2008, 192/774/5, 34/314/1, 4.0 avg.



given the state of the Rams at this time, I wouldn't touch Sjax if you paid me..I can sort of see your point about his

ability if it wasn't for his a) injuries, b) lousy, aging offensive players around him, c) has had only 1 good season and only 1 pro bowl visit.

hate to say it, but, big guys that run upright don't last long in the NFL.

Sjax is really nothing special, I wouldn't even rank him among the top 20 RB's..

Sjax is kind of like the Andre Johnson of RBs. He's put up great numbers only once, but outside of that he's been in some of the worst situations possibly imaginable and still put up solid numbers.Remember how bad of shape the Rams were in in 2007? They had what, 8 offensive linemen out with injuries, were down to their 3rd string QB, missing both WRs for a few games, and even had a backup COACH in there? Not to mention that on top of all that, Sjax was hurt himself, yet he STILL put up respectable numbers and was strong down the stretch.

This year, the Rams team has an offense around Sjax that can't pick up a first down to keep a drive going if their life depends on it, and a defense that can't keep them into the game if their life depended on it. They just broke a streak of a month worth of games without being in the redzone once on offense, and they fall behind so quickly that they have to abandon the run game by halftime. Sjax himself has been gimpy on top of all that, and pretty much any drive that he doesn't single-handidly take care of all by himself ends in a quick punt.

The Rams the last two years have been two of the most awful situations for a fantasy football RB in recent memory. There's just no way anyone could put up even mediocre numbers in that situation. Yet Sjax has.

This is a dynasty we're talking about here. I'm sure the #2 ranking of Sjax is banking on the Rams at some point turning things around at least a little bit. This is the NFL we're talking about here, teams don't generally stay in this bad of shape for very long anymore. With Sjax putting up the numbers he has in the worst possible fantasy football RB situation imaginable, just imagine what he could do if the Rams were even MEDIOCRE. Now imagine if 2 or 3 years from now they're actually good.

So many RBs are dependent on their situation. Sjax's can't possibly get any worse. We know his floor, because the people around him couldn't get worse if they decided to start a bunch of pop warner players.

The concern is that this is his prime. 2-3 years down the road what type of back is going be? The 2009 draft will be huge for Sjax's value. STL has the choice of grabbing a stud OL or future QB. Rams take an OL, I like his prospects to produce much more than if they decide to rebuild

 

[Boone22]

not to throw water on the fire here, but is Steven Jackson really worthy of the #2 spot?! how so?

lets see now, aside from one good year , 2006, where he rushed for 1528 yards and 13 tds , 4.4 avg, and another 90 receptions, he's been very plain jane in every other NFL season in which he's played.

2004, 134 att, 673 yards 4 tds. 5.0 avg.

2005, 254 att,1046 yards, 8 td, 4.1 avg per carry.., 43 rec for 320 yards. 2 rec td.

2007, 237/1002/5, 38/271/1, 4.2 avg

2008, 192/774/5, 34/314/1, 4.0 avg.



given the state of the Rams at this time, I wouldn't touch Sjax if you paid me..I can sort of see your point about his

ability if it wasn't for his a) injuries, b) lousy, aging offensive players around him, c) has had only 1 good season and only 1 pro bowl visit.

hate to say it, but, big guys that run upright don't last long in the NFL.

Sjax is really nothing special, I wouldn't even rank him among the top 20 RB's..

Sjax is kind of like the Andre Johnson of RBs. He's put up great numbers only once, but outside of that he's been in some of the worst situations possibly imaginable and still put up solid numbers.Remember how bad of shape the Rams were in in 2007? They had what, 8 offensive linemen out with injuries, were down to their 3rd string QB, missing both WRs for a few games, and even had a backup COACH in there? Not to mention that on top of all that, Sjax was hurt himself, yet he STILL put up respectable numbers and was strong down the stretch.

This year, the Rams team has an offense around Sjax that can't pick up a first down to keep a drive going if their life depends on it, and a defense that can't keep them into the game if their life depended on it. They just broke a streak of a month worth of games without being in the redzone once on offense, and they fall behind so quickly that they have to abandon the run game by halftime. Sjax himself has been gimpy on top of all that, and pretty much any drive that he doesn't single-handidly take care of all by himself ends in a quick punt.

The Rams the last two years have been two of the most awful situations for a fantasy football RB in recent memory. There's just no way anyone could put up even mediocre numbers in that situation. Yet Sjax has.

This is a dynasty we're talking about here. I'm sure the #2 ranking of Sjax is banking on the Rams at some point turning things around at least a little bit. This is the NFL we're talking about here, teams don't generally stay in this bad of shape for very long anymore. With Sjax putting up the numbers he has in the worst possible fantasy football RB situation imaginable, just imagine what he could do if the Rams were even MEDIOCRE. Now imagine if 2 or 3 years from now they're actually good.

So many RBs are dependent on their situation. Sjax's can't possibly get any worse. We know his floor, because the people around him couldn't get worse if they decided to start a bunch of pop warner players.

I don't disagree with many of your points but going by this arguement, if SJax is RB#2 then Kevin Smith is WAAAY too low at #25. You could replace S Jax with Kevin Smith and the Rams with Detroit in about 95% of the reasons you mentioned and still be correct. Sure Smith hasn't had 1 great season and he's got Calvin Johnson to take some heat off him but SJax has/had Holt too.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Does this number apply to RB's in their first year as a full time back?Ive never really bought into that theory to begin with. So if a RB has 370 carries, he is more likely to be a bust the following year than a RB who only had 350 carries?

You raise a good point. I don't buy that 370 is a "magic number," but there's no denying that the RB highway is littered with guys who have hit that number.

So if one time I looked at an apple tree and an apple fell, does that mean I caused it? Or maybe if I only choose to remember the times I saw an apple fall I'll be convinced it only happens when I look at it.Here's to hoping Turner only gets 369 carries this year so I can feel good about him next season.

If over a 10 year period 95% of the time you looked at an apple, that particular apple fell from the tree then yeah, you might want to check your midiclorian count.I realize correlation does not necessarily equal causation, but when something continues to be correlated over and over and over again over a long period of time you have to wonder if you've found one of the cases where it does.

I think what you are missing is that RB's get injured every year regardless of carries. Sure the "hit rate" appears higher as you pick a higher cutoff point but the sample size dramatically decreases and the standard deviation dramatically increases. There is no statistical confidence in this theory. For every RB you "predict" will have a bad season there are probably twice as many with a bad season you did not "predict". I'm not attacking you personally so please don't take this the wrong way.I'll agree that an increased # of carries will raise the risk of injury. But no 2 players are alike, and no 2 situations are alike so I don't put much stock into "x carries = y% risk" types of theories.

This guy knows things.

 

[loose circuits]

Pierre Thomas - Looking beastly this season. Why can't he be the next Michael Turner? Again, you've got the nagging questions about opportunity. Otherwise he might be viable as a top 10 pick.

Why has Thomas looked so awful early in the season and during the pre-season and so good late in the year as a spot starter? Is he a better player when the defenses are thin and tired? I am not saying he hasn't looked good, maybe even real good, at times but he sure hasn't been consistent. I don't know that opportunity is his problem, I think it's consistency. With Deuce possibly on the way out and Bush's inability to take over as an every down back, not to mention a penchant for nagging injuries, Thomas should once again have an opportunity to show what he is capable of next year in camp.

I haven't looked at this closely, but I'm guessing Reggie Bush plays into this. Thomas has shown to be a very capable receiver. I think he's misused if they just put him in a Duece style power running mode. Thomas seems to play better when he's involved in every aspect of the game. Again, I haven't looked, but my hunch is Thomas is less consistent when he's getting spot carries in power running situations.

I've watched a lot of Saint football this year and I think you hit it on the head. Pierre is more of a complete back that can run in between the tackles effectively, but is by no means a bruiser. Using him inside/out seems to be more productive and keeps defenses off balance especially when you consider Brees and the passing game already having them on their heels. I'd take him over Reggie Bush at this point as he's proven to be the more capable 3 down back.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Does this number apply to RB's in their first year as a full time back?Ive never really bought into that theory to begin with. So if a RB has 370 carries, he is more likely to be a bust the following year than a RB who only had 350 carries?

You raise a good point. I don't buy that 370 is a "magic number," but there's no denying that the RB highway is littered with guys who have hit that number.

So if one time I looked at an apple tree and an apple fell, does that mean I caused it? Or maybe if I only choose to remember the times I saw an apple fall I'll be convinced it only happens when I look at it.Here's to hoping Turner only gets 369 carries this year so I can feel good about him next season.

If over a 10 year period 95% of the time you looked at an apple, that particular apple fell from the tree then yeah, you might want to check your midiclorian count.I realize correlation does not necessarily equal causation, but when something continues to be correlated over and over and over again over a long period of time you have to wonder if you've found one of the cases where it does.

I think what you are missing is that RB's get injured every year regardless of carries. Sure the "hit rate" appears higher as you pick a higher cutoff point but the sample size dramatically decreases and the standard deviation dramatically increases. There is no statistical confidence in this theory. For every RB you "predict" will have a bad season there are probably twice as many with a bad season you did not "predict". I'm not attacking you personally so please don't take this the wrong way.I'll agree that an increased # of carries will raise the risk of injury. But no 2 players are alike, and no 2 situations are alike so I don't put much stock into "x carries = y% risk" types of theories.

I don't think the theory has anything to do with a player with a lot of carries being more likely to get injured the next year, just more likely to be a bust. I don't know what the actual theory is, I don't even follow it so I'm not really sure while I'm arguing for it here, but I'm just saying that just because correlation does not equal causation doesn't mean that correlation never equals causation, and the data seems to be pretty tight here.In LJ's case, he was a colossal bust long before his injury the year after his 400 carry season. He was averaging 69 yards and 0.37 TDs rushing per game at 3.5ypc even before the injury, down from 112yds and 1.1 TDs per game the year before. This year, his YPC is back up almost a full yard (4.4ypc) over what it was in '07.Also, in 2007 when he got hurt he was only on pace to nab 300 carries for the season, so it wasn't a matter of "he's getting tons more carries, so that increases risk of injury". He was on pace to finish with far fewer carries than he had had in any of his other 2 seasons as a starter.Again, I'm not trying to vehemently argue on the behalf of the theory because I don't really even follow it myself, but some of the assumptions being made against it seem incorrect.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

not to throw water on the fire here, but is Steven Jackson really worthy of the #2 spot?! how so?

lets see now, aside from one good year , 2006, where he rushed for 1528 yards and 13 tds , 4.4 avg, and another 90 receptions, he's been very plain jane in every other NFL season in which he's played.

2004, 134 att, 673 yards 4 tds. 5.0 avg.

2005, 254 att,1046 yards, 8 td, 4.1 avg per carry.., 43 rec for 320 yards. 2 rec td.

2007, 237/1002/5, 38/271/1, 4.2 avg

2008, 192/774/5, 34/314/1, 4.0 avg.



given the state of the Rams at this time, I wouldn't touch Sjax if you paid me..I can sort of see your point about his

ability if it wasn't for his a) injuries, b) lousy, aging offensive players around him, c) has had only 1 good season and only 1 pro bowl visit.

hate to say it, but, big guys that run upright don't last long in the NFL.

Sjax is really nothing special, I wouldn't even rank him among the top 20 RB's..

Sjax is kind of like the Andre Johnson of RBs. He's put up great numbers only once, but outside of that he's been in some of the worst situations possibly imaginable and still put up solid numbers.Remember how bad of shape the Rams were in in 2007? They had what, 8 offensive linemen out with injuries, were down to their 3rd string QB, missing both WRs for a few games, and even had a backup COACH in there? Not to mention that on top of all that, Sjax was hurt himself, yet he STILL put up respectable numbers and was strong down the stretch.

This year, the Rams team has an offense around Sjax that can't pick up a first down to keep a drive going if their life depends on it, and a defense that can't keep them into the game if their life depended on it. They just broke a streak of a month worth of games without being in the redzone once on offense, and they fall behind so quickly that they have to abandon the run game by halftime. Sjax himself has been gimpy on top of all that, and pretty much any drive that he doesn't single-handidly take care of all by himself ends in a quick punt.

The Rams the last two years have been two of the most awful situations for a fantasy football RB in recent memory. There's just no way anyone could put up even mediocre numbers in that situation. Yet Sjax has.

This is a dynasty we're talking about here. I'm sure the #2 ranking of Sjax is banking on the Rams at some point turning things around at least a little bit. This is the NFL we're talking about here, teams don't generally stay in this bad of shape for very long anymore. With Sjax putting up the numbers he has in the worst possible fantasy football RB situation imaginable, just imagine what he could do if the Rams were even MEDIOCRE. Now imagine if 2 or 3 years from now they're actually good.

So many RBs are dependent on their situation. Sjax's can't possibly get any worse. We know his floor, because the people around him couldn't get worse if they decided to start a bunch of pop warner players.

I don't disagree with many of your points but going by this arguement, if SJax is RB#2 then Kevin Smith is WAAAY too low at #25. You could replace S Jax with Kevin Smith and the Rams with Detroit in about 95% of the reasons you mentioned and still be correct. Sure Smith hasn't had 1 great season and he's got Calvin Johnson to take some heat off him but SJax has/had Holt too.

I don't think that's really a fair comparison. Both franchises have been bad, but Detroit's offense has always been fine, if not above average in fantasy football terms. To the contrary, Detroit is considered a pretty good situation for fantasy purposes right now, not a putrid one. The only recent reasonable comparisons to St. Louis would be Oakland, but their defense actually keeps them in games sometimes.The Rams offensive and defense woes the last couple seasons are something that hasn't been matched in quite some time.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Lendale White still gets no respect with a 36 ranking? The TD's he gets in the Tenn offense and the fact he's not even 25 years old, you've got to put him at least in the top 20 somewhere regardless of scoring system. In a TD heavy scoring system, he's top 10 material.

All in all I think this is the best dynasty ranking list out there. Here are my other opinions on guys that seem ranked quite off:

Mendenhall = too high...should be 10 spots lower...in the 30's somewhere

Leon Washington = too low...should be 10 spots higher...in the 20's somewhere

Turner should be top 5 RB next year based on young age and great 2008 performance

I'd bump Slaton up a few notches after a great rookie year but at #16 I can live with it.

I don't quite understand how Steven Jackson gets the #2 ranking for the 2 year in a row after St. Loius's dismal 2008 season.

Everything else seems reasonable.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Lendale White still gets no respect with a 36 ranking? The TD's he gets in the Tenn offense and the fact he's not even 25 years old, you've got to put him at least in the top 20 somewhere regardless of scoring system. In a TD heavy scoring system, he's top 10 material.All in all I think this is the best dynasty ranking list out there. Here are my other opinions on guys that seem ranked quite off:Mendenhall = too high...should be 10 spots lower...in the 30's somewhereLeon Washington = too low...should be 10 spots higher...in the 20's somewhereTurner should be top 5 RB next year based on young age and great 2008 performanceI'd bump Slaton up a few notches after a great rookie year but at #16 I can live with it.I don't quite understand how Steven Jackson gets the #2 ranking for the 2 year in a row after St. Loius's dismal 2008 season.Everything else seems reasonable.

I agree with most of your suggestions here, but Lendale White is right where he should be. He is too dependant on short TD's and mop up duty at the end of the game. Fotrtunately for him, the Titans D has given him plenty of both situatuons this year, but no way would i want to count on him as my #2 RB going forward. Which means he has to at least be out of the top 24, but probably even lower, as i doubt i would even be comfortable with him as my #3.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

What kind of contract does SJax have? I assume he's not in his rookie contract anymore and is signed to a long term deal?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Re: the S-Jax discussion. Similar players over the past year and a half: Calvin Johnson, MJD, Adrian Peterson, Andre Johnson.

I've had all of those guys ranked as studs even when they weren't producing stud numbers, and I got a ton of flack for it at the time. Now guys tell me I have MJD & Calvin too low. Yeah, where were you last year when I had them higher than anyone else did?

S-Jax is a stud. If you're not on board now, that's OK. I'm sure you'll tell me I'm not high enough on him by this time next year.

Oh, and at the "big guys that run upright don't last long in the NFL." comment. Come on. You gotta do better than that. It's the exact same argument everybody used against Adrian Peterson when he came into the league. If you're going to rag on S-Jax, you better have Peterson down at about No. 10 on your rankings b/c he's a big guy who runs upright.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't disagree with many of your points but going by this arguement, if SJax is RB#2 then Kevin Smith is WAAAY too low at #25. You could replace S Jax with Kevin Smith and the Rams with Detroit in about 95% of the reasons you mentioned and still be correct. Sure Smith hasn't had 1 great season and he's got Calvin Johnson to take some heat off him but SJax has/had Holt too.

Preposterous.

 

[thatguy]

I see no signs of Turner tiring as the season goes on, so i have no reason to think after 7 months off he will be broken down to start the 2009 season.

I'm not sure that's part of the criteria for the 370 theory.

Maybe tiring was the wrong term, but either way, if the 370 carries was going to make him fall apart next year, i think we would see some signs as the season came to an end.

Not to mention, Turner gets almost zero love in the passing game, so his number of carries is nearly equal to his number of total touches. And as far as total touches go, he's probably lower than, or in the same range as, quite a few other top RB's.

 

[Boone22]

I don't disagree with many of your points but going by this arguement, if SJax is RB#2 then Kevin Smith is WAAAY too low at #25. You could replace S Jax with Kevin Smith and the Rams with Detroit in about 95% of the reasons you mentioned and still be correct. Sure Smith hasn't had 1 great season and he's got Calvin Johnson to take some heat off him but SJax has/had Holt too.

Preposterous.

Why? You have Forte ranked at #6 right now and yet Kevin Smith is outperforming Forte on a per touch basis. The only reason Forte has the top 10 ranking he has is because the Chicago offense runs through him. So in one case you're ranking Forte in the top 10 because of situation and in the other case your ranking SJax #2 because of talent despite situation. So why shouldn't Kevin Smith be ranked in the 15-20 range??? He's RB #19 in my league right now despite splitting the first half of the season with Rudi Johnson. He's on a horrible Detroit team with no QB and no defense. If his talent is allowing him to produce despite these things why shouldn't he be higher? Do you see him splitting time again next year? Do you think his situation in Detroit could actually get any worse than a winless season, on a team with no defense that has to abandon the run early?

 

[Burning Sensation]

I don't disagree with many of your points but going by this arguement, if SJax is RB#2 then Kevin Smith is WAAAY too low at #25. You could replace S Jax with Kevin Smith and the Rams with Detroit in about 95% of the reasons you mentioned and still be correct. Sure Smith hasn't had 1 great season and he's got Calvin Johnson to take some heat off him but SJax has/had Holt too.

Preposterous.

Why? You have Forte ranked at #6 right now and yet Kevin Smith is outperforming Forte on a per touch basis. The only reason Forte has the top 10 ranking he has is because the Chicago offense runs through him. So in one case you're ranking Forte in the top 10 because of situation and in the other case your ranking SJax #2 because of talent despite situation. So why shouldn't Kevin Smith be ranked in the 15-20 range??? He's RB #19 in my league right now despite splitting the first half of the season with Rudi Johnson. He's on a horrible Detroit team with no QB and no defense. If his talent is allowing him to produce despite these things why shouldn't he be higher? Do you see him splitting time again next year? Do you think his situation in Detroit could actually get any worse than a winless season, on a team with no defense that has to abandon the run early?

These are some good points. I agree that Smith should be in the 15-20 range.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't disagree with many of your points but going by this arguement, if SJax is RB#2 then Kevin Smith is WAAAY too low at #25. You could replace S Jax with Kevin Smith and the Rams with Detroit in about 95% of the reasons you mentioned and still be correct. Sure Smith hasn't had 1 great season and he's got Calvin Johnson to take some heat off him but SJax has/had Holt too.

Preposterous.

Why? You have Forte ranked at #6 right now and yet Kevin Smith is outperforming Forte on a per touch basis. The only reason Forte has the top 10 ranking he has is because the Chicago offense runs through him. So in one case you're ranking Forte in the top 10 because of situation and in the other case your ranking SJax #2 because of talent despite situation. So why shouldn't Kevin Smith be ranked in the 15-20 range??? He's RB #19 in my league right now despite splitting the first half of the season with Rudi Johnson. He's on a horrible Detroit team with no QB and no defense. If his talent is allowing him to produce despite these things why shouldn't he be higher? Do you see him splitting time again next year? Do you think his situation in Detroit could actually get any worse than a winless season, on a team with no defense that has to abandon the run early?

Jerome Harrison is outperforming Forte on a per touch basis too. I'm ranking Forte Top-10 because he's producing like a stud and has shown no weaknesses in his game. Let me know when Kevin Smith is producing like a stud week-in and week-out.The "preposterous" statement was in the attempt to put S-Jax and Kevin Smith in the same basket because they play on lousy teams. S-Jax is a Top 2 or 3 talent and a stud. I like Kevin Smith, but he's a just a guy playing RB for the Lions.

 

[Boone22]

I don't disagree with many of your points but going by this arguement, if SJax is RB#2 then Kevin Smith is WAAAY too low at #25. You could replace S Jax with Kevin Smith and the Rams with Detroit in about 95% of the reasons you mentioned and still be correct. Sure Smith hasn't had 1 great season and he's got Calvin Johnson to take some heat off him but SJax has/had Holt too.

Preposterous.

Why? You have Forte ranked at #6 right now and yet Kevin Smith is outperforming Forte on a per touch basis. The only reason Forte has the top 10 ranking he has is because the Chicago offense runs through him. So in one case you're ranking Forte in the top 10 because of situation and in the other case your ranking SJax #2 because of talent despite situation. So why shouldn't Kevin Smith be ranked in the 15-20 range??? He's RB #19 in my league right now despite splitting the first half of the season with Rudi Johnson. He's on a horrible Detroit team with no QB and no defense. If his talent is allowing him to produce despite these things why shouldn't he be higher? Do you see him splitting time again next year? Do you think his situation in Detroit could actually get any worse than a winless season, on a team with no defense that has to abandon the run early?

Jerome Harrison is outperforming Forte on a per touch basis too. I'm ranking Forte Top-10 because he's producing like a stud and has shown no weaknesses in his game. Let me know when Kevin Smith is producing like a stud week-in and week-out.The "preposterous" statement was in the attempt to put S-Jax and Kevin Smith in the same basket because they play on lousy teams. S-Jax is a Top 2 or 3 talent and a stud. I like Kevin Smith, but he's a just a guy playing RB for the Lions.

BIG difference between Jerome Harrison with his wopping 42 touches so far this season as a 3rd down back and Kevin Smith with his 220+ touches, who is being used as an every down back. If Forte has no weakness in his game then can you please explain to me Kevin Smith's weaknesses because I don't see them... Other than playing on a crappy Detroit team that gets behind early and has to abandon the run?As far as lumping Kevin Smith and S Jax in the same basket. You misunderstand me. I wasn't. I was just explaining that if the other poster can use the "poor team" excuse for SJax in St. Louis, then why can't it be used for other RBs who are performing "well" this year on a crappy team? I'm not saying Kevin Smith is even close to SJax's league but I am saying that if you can justify ranking SJax as the #2 RB in Fantasy Football because he puts up decent stats on a crappy team then the same can apply for a guy like Kevin Smith who is ALSO putting up decent stats on a crappy team. Let's put it this way...I feel MUCH more comfortable saying Kevin Smith will be a top 15-20 fantasy RB next year then I would saying SJax will be a top #2 Fantasy RB next year. That's the only point I was trying to make.edited to add... If Kevin Smith was just "a guy" playing for the Lions then wouldn't his YPC be closer to Rudi Johnson's 3.1 than his actual YPC of 4.2? Which also happens to be 0.2 ypc better than SJax

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't disagree with many of your points but going by this arguement, if SJax is RB#2 then Kevin Smith is WAAAY too low at #25. You could replace S Jax with Kevin Smith and the Rams with Detroit in about 95% of the reasons you mentioned and still be correct. Sure Smith hasn't had 1 great season and he's got Calvin Johnson to take some heat off him but SJax has/had Holt too.

Preposterous.

Why? You have Forte ranked at #6 right now and yet Kevin Smith is outperforming Forte on a per touch basis. The only reason Forte has the top 10 ranking he has is because the Chicago offense runs through him. So in one case you're ranking Forte in the top 10 because of situation and in the other case your ranking SJax #2 because of talent despite situation. So why shouldn't Kevin Smith be ranked in the 15-20 range??? He's RB #19 in my league right now despite splitting the first half of the season with Rudi Johnson. He's on a horrible Detroit team with no QB and no defense. If his talent is allowing him to produce despite these things why shouldn't he be higher? Do you see him splitting time again next year? Do you think his situation in Detroit could actually get any worse than a winless season, on a team with no defense that has to abandon the run early?

Jerome Harrison is outperforming Forte on a per touch basis too. I'm ranking Forte Top-10 because he's producing like a stud and has shown no weaknesses in his game. Let me know when Kevin Smith is producing like a stud week-in and week-out.The "preposterous" statement was in the attempt to put S-Jax and Kevin Smith in the same basket because they play on lousy teams. S-Jax is a Top 2 or 3 talent and a stud. I like Kevin Smith, but he's a just a guy playing RB for the Lions.

BIG difference between Jerome Harrison with his wopping 42 touches so far this season as a 3rd down back and Kevin Smith with his 220+ touches, who is being used as an every down back. If Forte has no weakness in his game then can you please explain to me Kevin Smith's weaknesses because I don't see them... Other than playing on a crappy Detroit team?As far as lumping Kevin Smith and S Jax in the same basket. You misunderstand me. I wasn't. I was just explaining that if the other poster can use the "poor team" excuse for SJax in St. Louis, then why can't it be used for other RBs who are performing "well" this year on a crappy team? I'm not saying Kevin Smith is even close to SJax's league but I am saying that if you can justify ranking SJax as the #2 RB in Fantasy Football because he puts up decent stats on a crappy team then the same can apply for a guy like Kevin Smith who is ALSO putting up decent stats on a crappy team. Let's put it this way...I feel MUCH more comfortable saying Kevin Smith will be a top 15-20 fantasy RB next year then I would saying SJax will be a top #2 Fantasy RB next year. That's the only point I was trying to make.

Alright, I get what you're saying. You've made some very good points.To be clear, I'm not calling S-Jax the #2 RB in Fantasy Football. I'm calling him the #2 Dynasty RB.

 

[Boone22]

I don't disagree with many of your points but going by this arguement, if SJax is RB#2 then Kevin Smith is WAAAY too low at #25. You could replace S Jax with Kevin Smith and the Rams with Detroit in about 95% of the reasons you mentioned and still be correct. Sure Smith hasn't had 1 great season and he's got Calvin Johnson to take some heat off him but SJax has/had Holt too.

Preposterous.

Why? You have Forte ranked at #6 right now and yet Kevin Smith is outperforming Forte on a per touch basis. The only reason Forte has the top 10 ranking he has is because the Chicago offense runs through him. So in one case you're ranking Forte in the top 10 because of situation and in the other case your ranking SJax #2 because of talent despite situation. So why shouldn't Kevin Smith be ranked in the 15-20 range??? He's RB #19 in my league right now despite splitting the first half of the season with Rudi Johnson. He's on a horrible Detroit team with no QB and no defense. If his talent is allowing him to produce despite these things why shouldn't he be higher? Do you see him splitting time again next year? Do you think his situation in Detroit could actually get any worse than a winless season, on a team with no defense that has to abandon the run early?

Jerome Harrison is outperforming Forte on a per touch basis too. I'm ranking Forte Top-10 because he's producing like a stud and has shown no weaknesses in his game. Let me know when Kevin Smith is producing like a stud week-in and week-out.The "preposterous" statement was in the attempt to put S-Jax and Kevin Smith in the same basket because they play on lousy teams. S-Jax is a Top 2 or 3 talent and a stud. I like Kevin Smith, but he's a just a guy playing RB for the Lions.

BIG difference between Jerome Harrison with his wopping 42 touches so far this season as a 3rd down back and Kevin Smith with his 220+ touches, who is being used as an every down back. If Forte has no weakness in his game then can you please explain to me Kevin Smith's weaknesses because I don't see them... Other than playing on a crappy Detroit team?As far as lumping Kevin Smith and S Jax in the same basket. You misunderstand me. I wasn't. I was just explaining that if the other poster can use the "poor team" excuse for SJax in St. Louis, then why can't it be used for other RBs who are performing "well" this year on a crappy team? I'm not saying Kevin Smith is even close to SJax's league but I am saying that if you can justify ranking SJax as the #2 RB in Fantasy Football because he puts up decent stats on a crappy team then the same can apply for a guy like Kevin Smith who is ALSO putting up decent stats on a crappy team. Let's put it this way...I feel MUCH more comfortable saying Kevin Smith will be a top 15-20 fantasy RB next year then I would saying SJax will be a top #2 Fantasy RB next year. That's the only point I was trying to make.

Alright, I get what you're saying. You've made some very good points.To be clear, I'm not calling S-Jax the #2 RB in Fantasy Football. I'm calling him the #2 Dynasty RB.

Gotcha! I wasn't trying to be an ### I was just hoping for some clarification on your perposterous comment. I thought maybe you were seeing some huge flaw in Smith's game that I wasn't to justify his #25 ranking in your list.

 

[stevegamer]

Is it time to question Marion Barber's ranking?

1. His GM/Owner has called him out for being soft.

2. He was a pick of the prior "regime" - aka Parcells.

3. Jones drafted 2 RB's this year - including one from his alma mater in the first round.

I've got a feeling that Barber isn't long for Dallas - which may be a good thing for him.

 

[treat88]

I've got a feeling that Barber isn't long for Dallas - which may be a good thing for him.

Even Jerra won't eat what's left of his 7 year 45 million dollar contract and outright cut him.And, with that deal on the books, he's untradeable.Dallas has an embarrassment of riches with Barber, Choice, and Jones. When all three are healthy it looks like FF hell in Dallas for the foreseeable future.

 

[stevegamer]

I've got a feeling that Barber isn't long for Dallas - which may be a good thing for him.

Even Jerra won't eat what's left of his 7 year 45 million dollar contract and outright cut him.And, with that deal on the books, he's untradeable.Dallas has an embarrassment of riches with Barber, Choice, and Jones. When all three are healthy it looks like FF hell in Dallas for the foreseeable future.

The thing is, how much of that is guaranteed money? Also, Dallas metro area is barely big enough to hold the egos of Cuban & Jones at the same time, so we'll see what happens.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Is it time to question Marion Barber's ranking?

1. His GM/Owner has called him out for being soft.

2. He was a pick of the prior "regime" - aka Parcells.

3. Jones drafted 2 RB's this year - including one from his alma mater in the first round.

I've got a feeling that Barber isn't long for Dallas - which may be a good thing for him.

I doubt it, he is a good player, but he is the beneficiary of a great supporting cast.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Is it time to question Marion Barber's ranking?1. His GM/Owner has called him out for being soft.

 

[Max Power]

After last weekend I feel much better about your #2 overall SJax ranking. Lets only hope STL grabs one of those OTs in the draft.

I'd probably still put MJD ahead of him though.

 

[Banger]

I respect F&L big time but I'm just not a SJax guy. Another 12 game season averaging 4.1 ypc. Yes, their line was horrible, QB situation is horrible, and while he may be talented his situation is terrible. I was down on Jackson the last two years due to the team factors and his constant injury issues and I'll continue to be until there's reason for optimism.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

In one of the worst situations imaginable, Sjax averaged 128 total yards and 0.72 TDs per game when healthy.

Over a 16 game season that projects out to 2000 yards and 12 TDs.

I know that projecting out over a full season is shaky ground, but keep in mind that he did this in the worst situation imaginable and was still on pace to put up those numbers. Adrian Peterson when for 1900 yards and 10 TDs behind 3 pro-bowl offensive linemen and he's considered practically the end-all be-all of FF RBs in non-ppr leagues. His per game numbers were actually worse than SJax's, in an infinitely better situation.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

I would be comfortable with Jackson at #4 or #5 dyansty ranking going into next season but giving him the #2 slot for the 2nd year in a row is just too high considering another dismal situation and another year of injury trends to account for in the evaluation. He's officially "mid-career" as well now so we're looking at another 4-5 year stud performance window max.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Here's my vision of dynasty rankings for the top groupings:

ADP - when you run that good without any hint of a Minnesota passing game to keep defenses honest, you're #1

Turner - great situation in Atlanta and yes he's a stud

Forte - see ADP above. Biggest surprise of the rookie RB corp in '08, but could have sophmore slump. Longterm outlook looks bright.

Jackson - still a total beast at RB but recent trends in St. Louis and injury trends are knocking him back a few

DiAngelo Williams - Best overall fantasy player in 2008 but is it a one year wonder? Will Stewart vulture more TD's in the future?

Steve Slaton - Young stud, but is a sophmore slump awaiting? Houston has a history of 1 and done RB's.

Brandon Jacobs - TD machine and great O-line to run behind

Chris Johnson - Fastest guy in NFL but FatDale White vultures alot of Tenn TD's

MJD - proving to be a safe bet and consistently a top 10 RB despite Jacksonville's situation. Little chance at being #1 but one of the safest bets for being in the top 10.

Westbrook - Non-punishing running style should keep him highly productive for 2-3 more seasons

Barber - Jerry Jones flakiness and deep RB depth is holding him back a few notches

Lynch/Gore (tie)- 2 Stud RB's that need to find the endzone more plus they are on struggling offensive systems.

Portis - lot of wear and tear on the tires...starting to resemble a late-career Eddie George

LenDale White - see Jacobs comments above, but fact is White isn't a great RB, just in a great fantasy producting situation.

Wildcards (RB's who actually have potential at top 10 next year if the situations work out, but just as well could be out of the top 20 or even worse)

...Joseph Addai, Thomas Jones, Felix Jones, Kevin Smith, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Darren McFadden ...a couple rookie RB's (as always)

 

[lyon812]

Steve Slaton - Young stud, but is a sophmore slump awaiting? Houston has a history of 1 and done RB's.

To be fair, Domanick Williams/Davis wasn't 1-and-done.

 

[renesauz]

Alright, I get what you're saying. You've made some very good points.To be clear, I'm not calling S-Jax the #2 RB in Fantasy Football. I'm calling him the #2 Dynasty RB.

The window for RB's is too small to think this way. It's one thing to put a guy like Stewart or Mendenhall in the top 25 because of talent and a potentially studly future...they aren't getting beat to hell on a bad team but riding pine. It's quite another to put an every-down back at #2 who (for whatever reason, including sucky team) may well struggle to break into the top 10. As an every down back, the chance of his career being over within two years are actually HIGHER then the odds of a Stewart/Mendenhall being done.When dealing with young up-and-comers, the future matters a lot. When you're talking about mid-career every-down RB's, it's a HUGE mistake to look much further then next year.For that reason, S-Jax is way too high at #2, even if he's the second best REAL NFL back. I could see him in the 5-7 range based on long term upside, with an ealry 09 redraft ranking around 8-9.Count me in the group that believes in Slaton. He reminds me in many ways of a younger Westbrook, but a hair stronger (and perhaps not quite as sick in the open field). He doesn't take a ton of big hits and should be good for 20-23 touches/game.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Alright, I get what you're saying. You've made some very good points.

To be clear, I'm not calling S-Jax the #2 RB in Fantasy Football. I'm calling him the #2 Dynasty RB.

The window for RB's is too small to think this way. It's one thing to put a guy like Stewart or Mendenhall in the top 25 because of talent and a potentially studly future...they aren't getting beat to hell on a bad team but riding pine. It's quite another to put an every-down back at #2 who (for whatever reason, including sucky team) may well struggle to break into the top 10. As an every down back, the chance of his career being over within two years are actually HIGHER then the odds of a Stewart/Mendenhall being done.

You can say the exact same thing for every non-Adrian Peterson RB. Name me a RB that is a lock to finish in the Top-10 next season. You know, kind of like how Joseph Addai was a lock going into this season. There aren't any. They all have question marks.

S-Jax is an ultra-talented every-down playmaking stud, and he's yet to turn 26-years-old. If the fluke injuries and the surrounding talent scare you off, that's fine. But I believe he's easily a Top-5 back and probably even better than that.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Does this number apply to RB's in their first year as a full time back?

Ive never really bought into that theory to begin with. So if a RB has 370 carries, he is more likely to be a bust the following year than a RB who only had 350 carries?

You raise a good point. I don't buy that 370 is a "magic number," but there's no denying that the RB highway is littered with guys who have hit that number.

The running back highway is littered with even more guys that didn't hit that number. See Cadillac Williams and any Denver RB this year.

 

[renesauz]

Alright, I get what you're saying. You've made some very good points.

To be clear, I'm not calling S-Jax the #2 RB in Fantasy Football. I'm calling him the #2 Dynasty RB.

The window for RB's is too small to think this way. It's one thing to put a guy like Stewart or Mendenhall in the top 25 because of talent and a potentially studly future...they aren't getting beat to hell on a bad team but riding pine. It's quite another to put an every-down back at #2 who (for whatever reason, including sucky team) may well struggle to break into the top 10. As an every down back, the chance of his career being over within two years are actually HIGHER then the odds of a Stewart/Mendenhall being done.

You can say the exact same thing for every non-Adrian Peterson RB. Name me a RB that is a lock to finish in the Top-10 next season. You know, kind of like how Joseph Addai was a lock going into this season. There aren't any. They all have question marks.

S-Jax is an ultra-talented every-down playmaking stud, and he's yet to turn 26-years-old. If the fluke injuries and the surrounding talent scare you off, that's fine. But I believe he's easily a Top-5 back and probably even better than that.

They don't scare me off...they only downgrade him a few spots. You missed the point of my post completely. You yourself said he's not #2 for 2009, but for dynasty. My argument is that for every-down RB's, it's foolish to look much beyond this year (or 09 since this year is all but done). If he's #7 for redraft, he shouldn't be any higher then #5 or so for dynasty. Obviously, this argument only stands for every down backs. If you honestly see him as the #3 or 4 back for 09 (many here will disagree with that based on current info), and believe in his talent (which few will disagree with), then stick to your guns.OTOH...if you believe he's more likely to fall in the RB7-9 area (as many of us are), he's too high.

Never denied the talent. The situation doesn't get much worse. The comparison to Smith is justified (not in talent, but in ranking philosophy).

 

[benm3218]

Alright, I get what you're saying. You've made some very good points.

To be clear, I'm not calling S-Jax the #2 RB in Fantasy Football. I'm calling him the #2 Dynasty RB.

The window for RB's is too small to think this way. It's one thing to put a guy like Stewart or Mendenhall in the top 25 because of talent and a potentially studly future...they aren't getting beat to hell on a bad team but riding pine. It's quite another to put an every-down back at #2 who (for whatever reason, including sucky team) may well struggle to break into the top 10. As an every down back, the chance of his career being over within two years are actually HIGHER then the odds of a Stewart/Mendenhall being done.

You can say the exact same thing for every non-Adrian Peterson RB. Name me a RB that is a lock to finish in the Top-10 next season. You know, kind of like how Joseph Addai was a lock going into this season. There aren't any. They all have question marks.

S-Jax is an ultra-talented every-down playmaking stud, and he's yet to turn 26-years-old. If the fluke injuries and the surrounding talent scare you off, that's fine. But I believe he's easily a Top-5 back and probably even better than that.

They don't scare me off...they only downgrade him a few spots. You missed the point of my post completely. You yourself said he's not #2 for 2009, but for dynasty. My argument is that for every-down RB's, it's foolish to look much beyond this year (or 09 since this year is all but done). If he's #7 for redraft, he shouldn't be any higher then #5 or so for dynasty. Obviously, this argument only stands for every down backs. If you honestly see him as the #3 or 4 back for 09 (many here will disagree with that based on current info), and believe in his talent (which few will disagree with), then stick to your guns.OTOH...if you believe he's more likely to fall in the RB7-9 area (as many of us are), he's too high.

Never denied the talent. The situation doesn't get much worse. The comparison to Smith is justified (not in talent, but in ranking philosophy).

This doesn't make much sense... In a dynasty league you look longterm at talent and rank things differently than redraft. It is not foolish to look beyond this year in dynasty, that is the whole point of these type of rankings. Anybody can go buy a fantasy mag for 09, these threads are for discussing players for 09 and BEYOND.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Alright, I get what you're saying. You've made some very good points.

To be clear, I'm not calling S-Jax the #2 RB in Fantasy Football. I'm calling him the #2 Dynasty RB.

The window for RB's is too small to think this way. It's one thing to put a guy like Stewart or Mendenhall in the top 25 because of talent and a potentially studly future...they aren't getting beat to hell on a bad team but riding pine. It's quite another to put an every-down back at #2 who (for whatever reason, including sucky team) may well struggle to break into the top 10. As an every down back, the chance of his career being over within two years are actually HIGHER then the odds of a Stewart/Mendenhall being done.When dealing with young up-and-comers, the future matters a lot. When you're talking about mid-career every-down RB's, it's a HUGE mistake to look much further then next year.

For that reason, S-Jax is way too high at #2, even if he's the second best REAL NFL back. I could see him in the 5-7 range based on long term upside, with an ealry 09 redraft ranking around 8-9.

Count me in the group that believes in Slaton. He reminds me in many ways of a younger Westbrook, but a hair stronger (and perhaps not quite as sick in the open field). He doesn't take a ton of big hits and should be good for 20-23 touches/game.

I suppose that's where we differ. I see Slaton as MUCH more likely to be a guy that's completely worthless in 2-3 years than Sjax. If anything, Sjax has a safer future in years 2-3 from now than any of those guys you mentioned do. Just because he's a 25 year old every down back doesn't mean you ignore 2-3 years from now, because his security in those years over the boom or bust rookies is a big part of his value.

 

[renesauz]

Alright, I get what you're saying. You've made some very good points.

To be clear, I'm not calling S-Jax the #2 RB in Fantasy Football. I'm calling him the #2 Dynasty RB.

The window for RB's is too small to think this way. It's one thing to put a guy like Stewart or Mendenhall in the top 25 because of talent and a potentially studly future...they aren't getting beat to hell on a bad team but riding pine. It's quite another to put an every-down back at #2 who (for whatever reason, including sucky team) may well struggle to break into the top 10. As an every down back, the chance of his career being over within two years are actually HIGHER then the odds of a Stewart/Mendenhall being done.When dealing with young up-and-comers, the future matters a lot. When you're talking about mid-career every-down RB's, it's a HUGE mistake to look much further then next year.

For that reason, S-Jax is way too high at #2, even if he's the second best REAL NFL back. I could see him in the 5-7 range based on long term upside, with an ealry 09 redraft ranking around 8-9.

Count me in the group that believes in Slaton. He reminds me in many ways of a younger Westbrook, but a hair stronger (and perhaps not quite as sick in the open field). He doesn't take a ton of big hits and should be good for 20-23 touches/game.

I suppose that's where we differ. I see Slaton as MUCH more likely to be a guy that's completely worthless in 2-3 years than Sjax. If anything, Sjax has a safer future in years 2-3 from now than any of those guys you mentioned do. Just because he's a 25 year old every down back doesn't mean you ignore 2-3 years from now, because his security in those years over the boom or bust rookies is a big part of his value.

Nobody's trying to argue that Slaton is the #2 dynasty Rb either.

 

[renesauz]

Alright, I get what you're saying. You've made some very good points.

To be clear, I'm not calling S-Jax the #2 RB in Fantasy Football. I'm calling him the #2 Dynasty RB.

The window for RB's is too small to think this way. It's one thing to put a guy like Stewart or Mendenhall in the top 25 because of talent and a potentially studly future...they aren't getting beat to hell on a bad team but riding pine. It's quite another to put an every-down back at #2 who (for whatever reason, including sucky team) may well struggle to break into the top 10. As an every down back, the chance of his career being over within two years are actually HIGHER then the odds of a Stewart/Mendenhall being done.

You can say the exact same thing for every non-Adrian Peterson RB. Name me a RB that is a lock to finish in the Top-10 next season. You know, kind of like how Joseph Addai was a lock going into this season. There aren't any. They all have question marks.

S-Jax is an ultra-talented every-down playmaking stud, and he's yet to turn 26-years-old. If the fluke injuries and the surrounding talent scare you off, that's fine. But I believe he's easily a Top-5 back and probably even better than that.

They don't scare me off...they only downgrade him a few spots. You missed the point of my post completely. You yourself said he's not #2 for 2009, but for dynasty. My argument is that for every-down RB's, it's foolish to look much beyond this year (or 09 since this year is all but done). If he's #7 for redraft, he shouldn't be any higher then #5 or so for dynasty. Obviously, this argument only stands for every down backs. If you honestly see him as the #3 or 4 back for 09 (many here will disagree with that based on current info), and believe in his talent (which few will disagree with), then stick to your guns.OTOH...if you believe he's more likely to fall in the RB7-9 area (as many of us are), he's too high.

Never denied the talent. The situation doesn't get much worse. The comparison to Smith is justified (not in talent, but in ranking philosophy).

This doesn't make much sense... In a dynasty league you look longterm at talent and rank things differently than redraft. It is not foolish to look beyond this year in dynasty, that is the whole point of these type of rankings. Anybody can go buy a fantasy mag for 09, these threads are for discussing players for 09 and BEYOND.

Please re-read what I wrote. Moving a guy from #20 (09 redraft ranking) to #13 (dynasty) based on future potential/percieved skill is one thing. Moving a guy from redraft ranking #8 to dynasty #2 based on future potential/percieved skill is another. for one, the points differential between #20 and #13in a given year is usually not a big deal. The differential (not to mention the necessary investment!!) between #8 and #2 is much more significant.I'm not spending #2 money on a player whose outlook for next year is "will crack top ten if he stays healthy. Would be higher if his team were any good, but hey...they might improve for 2010."

Also, once again...if you believe S-Jax is a lock for top five in 09...then this argument does not apply to you.

I'm arguing ranking methodology more then the specific rank. For every down starting RB's, current expected production (as shown by a redraft type ranking) should far, FAR outweigh year2+ expectations.

My S-Jax expectations for S-Jax in 09 are in the RB 8-10 area. No way I'd pay more then an RB5 pricetag with my current expectations.

Am I the only one seeing him as Rb8 or so for 09? Based on comments in this (and other) threads, I don't think so.

ETA: Many experianced and successful dynasty league players contend that it's foolish to project and use RB expectations beyond 2 years anyway! If he's #8 for 09, and expected #2 for 2010...how could he be better then #5 overall?

 

[benm3218]

Alright, I get what you're saying. You've made some very good points.

To be clear, I'm not calling S-Jax the #2 RB in Fantasy Football. I'm calling him the #2 Dynasty RB.

The window for RB's is too small to think this way. It's one thing to put a guy like Stewart or Mendenhall in the top 25 because of talent and a potentially studly future...they aren't getting beat to hell on a bad team but riding pine. It's quite another to put an every-down back at #2 who (for whatever reason, including sucky team) may well struggle to break into the top 10. As an every down back, the chance of his career being over within two years are actually HIGHER then the odds of a Stewart/Mendenhall being done.

You can say the exact same thing for every non-Adrian Peterson RB. Name me a RB that is a lock to finish in the Top-10 next season. You know, kind of like how Joseph Addai was a lock going into this season. There aren't any. They all have question marks.

S-Jax is an ultra-talented every-down playmaking stud, and he's yet to turn 26-years-old. If the fluke injuries and the surrounding talent scare you off, that's fine. But I believe he's easily a Top-5 back and probably even better than that.

They don't scare me off...they only downgrade him a few spots. You missed the point of my post completely. You yourself said he's not #2 for 2009, but for dynasty. My argument is that for every-down RB's, it's foolish to look much beyond this year (or 09 since this year is all but done). If he's #7 for redraft, he shouldn't be any higher then #5 or so for dynasty. Obviously, this argument only stands for every down backs. If you honestly see him as the #3 or 4 back for 09 (many here will disagree with that based on current info), and believe in his talent (which few will disagree with), then stick to your guns.OTOH...if you believe he's more likely to fall in the RB7-9 area (as many of us are), he's too high.

Never denied the talent. The situation doesn't get much worse. The comparison to Smith is justified (not in talent, but in ranking philosophy).

This doesn't make much sense... In a dynasty league you look longterm at talent and rank things differently than redraft. It is not foolish to look beyond this year in dynasty, that is the whole point of these type of rankings. Anybody can go buy a fantasy mag for 09, these threads are for discussing players for 09 and BEYOND.

Please re-read what I wrote. Moving a guy from #20 (09 redraft ranking) to #13 (dynasty) based on future potential/percieved skill is one thing. Moving a guy from redraft ranking #8 to dynasty #2 based on future potential/percieved skill is another. for one, the points differential between #20 and #13in a given year is usually not a big deal. The differential (not to mention the necessary investment!!) between #8 and #2 is much more significant.I'm not spending #2 money on a player whose outlook for next year is "will crack top ten if he stays healthy. Would be higher if his team were any good, but hey...they might improve for 2010."

Also, once again...if you believe S-Jax is a lock for top five in 09...then this argument does not apply to you.

I'm arguing ranking methodology more then the specific rank. For every down starting RB's, current expected production (as shown by a redraft type ranking) should far, FAR outweigh year2+ expectations.

My S-Jax expectations for S-Jax in 09 are in the RB 8-10 area. No way I'd pay more then an RB5 pricetag with my current expectations.

Am I the only one seeing him as Rb8 or so for 09? Based on comments in this (and other) threads, I don't think so.

ETA: Many experianced and successful dynasty league players contend that it's foolish to project and use RB expectations beyond 2 years anyway! If he's #8 for 09, and expected #2 for 2010...how could he be better then #5 overall?

You dont play in dynasty leagues do you? For the most part the rankings are used to trade or very rarely bid on a dropped player. When you can own a player for life it is completely normal to rank a guy like Sjax as #2 regardless of where he placed this year. This is a concept that a redrafter will not understand.ETA: the fact that you said, "If he's #8 for 09, and expected #2 for 2010...how could he be better then #5 overall?" shows that you do not really know what you are talking about. It isn't even 09 yet... What crystal ball tells you he is only ranked 9th for 09'? Due to his talent and ability he is ranked high for most dynasty players. If you do not play in dynasty leagues then stop arguing and move along.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

They don't scare me off...they only downgrade him a few spots. You missed the point of my post completely. You yourself said he's not #2 for 2009, but for dynasty. My argument is that for every-down RB's, it's foolish to look much beyond this year (or 09 since this year is all but done). If he's #7 for redraft, he shouldn't be any higher then #5 or so for dynasty. Obviously, this argument only stands for every down backs. If you honestly see him as the #3 or 4 back for 09 (many here will disagree with that based on current info), and believe in his talent (which few will disagree with), then stick to your guns.

OTOH...if you believe he's more likely to fall in the RB7-9 area (as many of us are), he's too high.

Never denied the talent. The situation doesn't get much worse. The comparison to Smith is justified (not in talent, but in ranking philosophy).

Who's missing whose point here? I said S-Jax isn't the #2 RB in fantasy football -- meaning he didn't finish No. 2 in '08, and he won't be ranked by redrafters as No. 2 going into '09. But that's OK. Redrafters are easy to beat b/c they always put way too much stock in what happened the year before at the expense of talent, situation, and previous track record.As an ultra-talented every down back, S-Jax could very easily finish as the No. 1 back in 2009.

For the record, I do honestly see him as a #3 or #4 back for '09, and I have stuck to my guns. I have never come close to saying I believe he'll finish in the RB7-9 area next season.

Situation doesn't matter quite as much for running backs, and it never has. Talented RBs have been producing great seasons on crappy teams forever.

 

[renesauz]

You dont play in dynasty leagues do you? For the most part the rankings are used to trade or very rarely bid on a dropped player. When you can own a player for life it is completely normal to rank a guy like Sjax as #2 regardless of where he placed this year. This is a concept that a redrafter will not understand.

ETA: the fact that you said, "If he's #8 for 09, and expected #2 for 2010...how could he be better then #5 overall?" shows that you do not really know what you are talking about. It isn't even 09 yet... What crystal ball tells you he is only ranked 9th for 09'? Due to his talent and ability he is ranked high for most dynasty players. If you do not play in dynasty leagues then stop arguing and move along.

Yes...I do, and with success. What I'm saying is that the window of success is so short for every down backs that it's foolish to look beyond 2 years if a guy is already an every down back. Think over the last 5 years. How many "top ten backs" aren't even playing just 3 years later, regardless of age? Of those still playing, how many are still top 10?With that in mind, dynasty rankings (at least at the top) should never look significantly differant from redraft rankings. Too many RB's have huge injuries or otherwise fall by the wayside. NOTE: The further down the rankings you go, and particularly when trying to insert/rank young players still awaiting their chance, the more different from redraft the rankings will be.

F&L: I fully understand and appreciate anyone who still considers Jackson a top 3 pick. I simply disagree, and I don't think I am alone. Saint Louis is a mess, the O-line is a mess, and Jackson has shown a propensity towards injury. It's impossible to deny his talent and his potential to perform as a top 2-3 fantasy RB, but all of the talent in the world won't carry him there in a hideous offense, even if he stays healthy. Talent is the only reason he's even discussed as a top ten RB at this point, because it sure as hell isn't his situation.

 

[renesauz]

For the record, I do honestly see him as a #3 or #4 back for '09, and I have stuck to my guns. I have never come close to saying I believe he'll finish in the RB7-9 area next season.

Situation doesn't matter quite as much for running backs, and it never has. Talented RBs have been producing great seasons on crappy teams forever.

True enough...but not fantasy #1 seasons. Only a uber-talented back can even break top-ten on a truly hideous team.....and that's what St. Louis has become.If you see him at #3 or #4 for 09...then #2 is fair for dynasty. (we can agree to disagree on it)

 

[thriftyrocker]

True enough...but not fantasy #1 seasons. Only a uber-talented back can even break top-ten on a truly hideous team.....and that's what St. Louis has become.

Exhibit A: LT '03 17 TDs, 2370 total yards, 100 receptions, 4-12

 

[renesauz]

True enough...but not fantasy #1 seasons. Only a uber-talented back can even break top-ten on a truly hideous team.....and that's what St. Louis has become.

Exhibit A: LT '03 17 TDs, 2370 total yards, 100 receptions, 4-12

Was that Charger team as hideous as this Rams team? Were so many games unbalanced, was their defense as bad, was the O-line as bad? Did LT already exhibit a tendency towards injury (No to this one for sure)?I honestly don't know the answers to all of those questions...but I suspect not. Also...are you suggesting that Jackson is capable of being a 100 catch, 1000 yard recieving threat (which was a huge part of why LT put up those types of numbers on that team.) Heck...did that Charger team even have another legit reciever?

To project a back at #2 when the only thing he has going for him is talent is, at least IMHO, foolish. I agree talent is the #1 predicator for success, but it is NOT the only one.

Please realize we're splitting hairs. We aren't talking about #2 vs. #15, but #2 vs. #7 or 8.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Alright, I get what you're saying. You've made some very good points.

To be clear, I'm not calling S-Jax the #2 RB in Fantasy Football. I'm calling him the #2 Dynasty RB.

The window for RB's is too small to think this way. It's one thing to put a guy like Stewart or Mendenhall in the top 25 because of talent and a potentially studly future...they aren't getting beat to hell on a bad team but riding pine. It's quite another to put an every-down back at #2 who (for whatever reason, including sucky team) may well struggle to break into the top 10. As an every down back, the chance of his career being over within two years are actually HIGHER then the odds of a Stewart/Mendenhall being done.

You can say the exact same thing for every non-Adrian Peterson RB. Name me a RB that is a lock to finish in the Top-10 next season. You know, kind of like how Joseph Addai was a lock going into this season. There aren't any. They all have question marks.

S-Jax is an ultra-talented every-down playmaking stud, and he's yet to turn 26-years-old. If the fluke injuries and the surrounding talent scare you off, that's fine. But I believe he's easily a Top-5 back and probably even better than that.

See my earlier comments/post. I believe MJD is the safest bet to be a top 10 RB next season (after ADP). Jackson finished 16th in my league's RB fantasy scoring this season and finished 20th in 2007. No way I can rank him #2 dynasty RB next year based on a 2 year trend of out of the top 10.

 

[Q-Bert]

True enough...but not fantasy #1 seasons. Only a uber-talented back can even break top-ten on a truly hideous team.....and that's what St. Louis has become.

Exhibit A: LT '03 17 TDs, 2370 total yards, 100 receptions, 4-12

Was that Charger team as hideous as this Rams team? Were so many games unbalanced, was their defense as bad, was the O-line as bad? Did LT already exhibit a tendency towards injury (No to this one for sure)?I honestly don't know the answers to all of those questions...but I suspect not. Also...are you suggesting that Jackson is capable of being a 100 catch, 1000 yard recieving threat (which was a huge part of why LT put up those types of numbers on that team.) Heck...did that Charger team even have another legit reciever?

To project a back at #2 when the only thing he has going for him is talent is, at least IMHO, foolish. I agree talent is the #1 predicator for success, but it is NOT the only one.

Please realize we're splitting hairs. We aren't talking about #2 vs. #15, but #2 vs. #7 or 8.

200690 catches

806 receiving yards

 

[biggamer3]

If Hightower plays the role he played the first 6 weeks of backup RB who plays in the 20 he could have some value again.

But as of now he is a late late round pick

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Great discussion here guys. Thanks!

For the record, I see what renesauz is saying, but I just think he's taking it too far. I would say that taking a shorter term approach to workhorse RBs makes sense, but not that redraft should be way, way more important that 2+ years out for them, which is what I think you said.

FWIW, I own Jackson and would only trade him for ADP, MJD and maybe Turner. But he's ahead of Forte, DeAngelo and everyone else for the next 2-3 years, IMO.