SSL4 Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)

[Football Critic]

some more thoughts from an outsider:

For you new guys, drafting only 5 WRs is often a death knell in these things especially if two or more share a bye week. Does anyone know if a team with only 5 WRs has ever won? 6-7 seems to be the sweet spot here. I often try to get 8 in the 20 rounders.

On LHUCKS:

I think 3 RBs are ok as long as RB2 and RB3 will see significant time. I don't understand the love for Helu though LHUCKS. The guy is big so he is hard to bring down but his footwork is pretty awful and gets tripped up at the line too much. It also takes him awhile to get up to speed. He needs to be 8 yards back to really get up to full speed and if he has to change direction then the the play is pretty much over. He could have 8-10 TDs in goal line duty but I don't see the value outside of that. Otherwise I like the Gore and JStew combo, but man that's a long injury history between those two. If either of them miss time this season, I can't see you recovering from that.

To Football Critic:

It's pretty clear you have some knowledge and a passion for the hobby, but man you need to calm down. We know how you feel about LHUCKS so you don't need to reply to every one of his posts and repeat those feelings. As a newer guy, your arrogance is a bit off putting and it's not a good way to get us vets on your good side (not that you seem to care about that). Finally, you should really re-read your posts before submitting. All the simple misspellings and grammatical errors really take the wind out of a lot of your posts. I'm not the grammar gestapo but it seems you spell words like "tier" differently every time you type it.

I'm not here to make friends, just want to gain and give football knowledge.As far as spelling, I really could careless how I spell. I'm not the best typer and most of my responses are from a Blackberry, and the keys are small. I do my best, but really not concerned, nor hate on others for spelling, as its very moot to me. Mispelled words prove the same point.

But thank you!

 

[Football Critic]

only other thing is that I don't mind hearing other guys opinions even if they aren't "backed up" by anything....we can all go look up stats, etc and once they are thrown out there it doesn't matter really since they don't change....so while it's nice to have stats to back up an opinion I don't think it is completely neccessary and often it can actually be misleading when we look to the future and what to expect....so while just a simple comment like "average" or "below avearge" doesn't really help a whole lot without some discussion about why a guy feels that way.....I don't neccessarily think it needs to be backed up by some statistical analysis.....I like to get a feel on how people that pay a ton of attention to the NFL from a fantasy perspective see things shaping up, not how well they break down stats from the last few years....basically I'm cool with more of the from the gut type stuff even if I don't agree with it, cause I can go break down stats all I want by myself......a little mixed in here and there does help though....

lol, its neccessary when everything a guy posts is about opinion. Just once I would like to see a fact, instead of his rhetoric or opinion. Its a message board everyone is allowed to have an opinion, however. I Would just like to see reasoning, for instance...Why he "thinks" Witten will have a down year. If he has no reasoning, his word is just that, without reason. Everyone has an opinion, but people with knowledge and an opinion matter more.Witten was third in the league in receptions last year, not just for TEs, in catches period....as well as having 94+ catches 3 of his last 4 years. He has had over 1000 yards in 3 of his last 4 years, an 2 seasons with 7+ Tds. His targets have gone up each of the last 3 years (121, 124, 128). Romo and Kitna both love him, and as an added bonus, he has only missed one game in his career. So I would just like to see reasoning...other than opinion.If you want my opinion, just ask, I back it up with reasoning.

 

[BassNBrew]

only other thing is that I don't mind hearing other guys opinions even if they aren't "backed up" by anything....

we can all go look up stats, etc and once they are thrown out there it doesn't matter really since they don't change....so while it's nice to have stats to back up an opinion I don't think it is completely neccessary and often it can actually be misleading when we look to the future and what to expect....

so while just a simple comment like "average" or "below avearge" doesn't really help a whole lot without some discussion about why a guy feels that way.....I don't neccessarily think it needs to be backed up by some statistical analysis.....I like to get a feel on how people that pay a ton of attention to the NFL from a fantasy perspective see things shaping up, not how well they break down stats from the last few years....

basically I'm cool with more of the from the gut type stuff even if I don't agree with it, cause I can go break down stats all I want by myself......a little mixed in here and there does help though....

lol, its neccessary when everything a guy posts is about opinion. Just once I would like to see a fact, instead of his rhetoric or opinion. Its a message board everyone is allowed to have an opinion, however. I Would just like to see reasoning, for instance...Why he "thinks" Witten will have a down year. If he has no reasoning, his word is just that, without reason. Everyone has an opinion, but people with knowledge and an opinion matter more.Witten was third in the league in receptions last year, not just for TEs, in catches period....as well as having 94+ catches 3 of his last 4 years. He has had over 1000 yards in 3 of his last 4 years, an 2 seasons with 7+ Tds. His targets have gone up each of the last 3 years (121, 124, 128). Romo and Kitna both love him, and as an added bonus, he has only missed one game in his career. So I would just like to see reasoning...other than opinion.

If you want my opinion, just ask, I back it up with reasoning.

I guess he's due to miss time.

 

[Football Critic]

only other thing is that I don't mind hearing other guys opinions even if they aren't "backed up" by anything....

we can all go look up stats, etc and once they are thrown out there it doesn't matter really since they don't change....so while it's nice to have stats to back up an opinion I don't think it is completely neccessary and often it can actually be misleading when we look to the future and what to expect....

so while just a simple comment like "average" or "below avearge" doesn't really help a whole lot without some discussion about why a guy feels that way.....I don't neccessarily think it needs to be backed up by some statistical analysis.....I like to get a feel on how people that pay a ton of attention to the NFL from a fantasy perspective see things shaping up, not how well they break down stats from the last few years....

basically I'm cool with more of the from the gut type stuff even if I don't agree with it, cause I can go break down stats all I want by myself......a little mixed in here and there does help though....

lol, its neccessary when everything a guy posts is about opinion. Just once I would like to see a fact, instead of his rhetoric or opinion. Its a message board everyone is allowed to have an opinion, however. I Would just like to see reasoning, for instance...Why he "thinks" Witten will have a down year. If he has no reasoning, his word is just that, without reason. Everyone has an opinion, but people with knowledge and an opinion matter more.Witten was third in the league in receptions last year, not just for TEs, in catches period....as well as having 94+ catches 3 of his last 4 years. He has had over 1000 yards in 3 of his last 4 years, an 2 seasons with 7+ Tds. His targets have gone up each of the last 3 years (121, 124, 128). Romo and Kitna both love him, and as an added bonus, he has only missed one game in his career. So I would just like to see reasoning...other than opinion.

If you want my opinion, just ask, I back it up with reasoning.

I guess he's due to miss time.

I sure hope not!

 

[BassNBrew]

some more thoughts from an outsider:For you new guys, drafting only 5 WRs is often a death knell in these things especially if two or more share a bye week. Does anyone know if a team with only 5 WRs has ever won? 6-7 seems to be the sweet spot here. I often try to get 8 in the 20 rounders.

I recall winning one year with only 5 WRs and one of the guys was out for most of the year and another missed several games. I had a long stretch with only 3 WRs scoring pts. As I recall, I went Big Ben/Batch solo at QB, took Alexander and his 27 tds in the 1st and hit on LJ and his 2000/21 in the middle rounds. My WRs put up ok points but SA/LJ pretty much steam rolled the competition the second have of the year.That said, I agree with your philosphy. I recall leaving the draft with 5 guys that I thought would match up against anyone and then having to sweat bye weeks and the injuries most of the year.

 

[LHUCKS]

lol, its neccessary when everything a guy posts is about opinion. Just once I would like to see a fact, instead of his rhetoric or opinion. Its a message board everyone is allowed to have an opinion, however. I Would just like to see reasoning, for instance...Why he "thinks" Witten will have a down year.

There is a Jason Witten thread in the shark pool where I posted my projections and reasoning. Witten's numbers were underwhelming with Romo at QB last year(you can look up the stats). Also, I believe the emergence of Dez Bryant will negatively impact Witten's numbers as there are only so many targets to go around between Bryant, Miles, Williams and Witten.If you want to know details about why I feel a certain way about a player or group of players you just have to ask.

 

[LHUCKS]

some more thoughts from an outsider:For you new guys, drafting only 5 WRs is often a death knell in these things especially if two or more share a bye week. Does anyone know if a team with only 5 WRs has ever won? 6-7 seems to be the sweet spot here. I often try to get 8 in the 20 rounders.

I recall winning one year with only 5 WRs and one of the guys was out for most of the year and another missed several games. I had a long stretch with only 3 WRs scoring pts. As I recall, I went Big Ben/Batch solo at QB, took Alexander and his 27 tds in the 1st and hit on LJ and his 2000/21 in the middle rounds. My WRs put up ok points but SA/LJ pretty much steam rolled the competition the second have of the year.That said, I agree with your philosphy. I recall leaving the draft with 5 guys that I thought would match up against anyone and then having to sweat bye weeks and the injuries most of the year.

Exactly, it's not impossible to win with just 5 WRs, particularly if you drafted dependable WRs, but in general it's not a recommended practice. I think it's an obvious mistake to draft 3QBs instead of 6WRs.

 

[Football Critic]

lol, its neccessary when everything a guy posts is about opinion. Just once I would like to see a fact, instead of his rhetoric or opinion. Its a message board everyone is allowed to have an opinion, however. I Would just like to see reasoning, for instance...Why he "thinks" Witten will have a down year.

There is a Jason Witten thread in the shark pool where I posted my projections and reasoning. Witten's numbers were underwhelming with Romo at QB last year(you can look up the stats). Also, I believe the emergence of Dez Bryant will negatively impact Witten's numbers as there are only so many targets to go around between Bryant, Miles, Williams and Witten.

If you want to know details about why I feel a certain way about a player or group of players you just have to ask.

I'm down on Witten this year due to increased competition for targets and what I expect to be an improved Dalas Defense under new HC Garret. Witten is going way too early in drafts. 80 receptions, 880 yards, 5 TDs

Do yourself a favor pass on Witten this year and draft Kellen Winslow several rounds later to get the exact same production, if not better.

A) You are correct, I'm projecting a down year for Witten (as noted above) and I'm projecting an up year for Winslow.

B) I did not mean to imply that Winslow was "consistently on par" with Witten...we all know Witten's impressive recent track record.

This is how you win fantasy championships, you avoide guys that could be headed into a down year(Witten) and you nab value like Winslow, much later in the draft. That is outdrafting your competition 101.

I will elaborate more on Winslow when you open up the spotlight thread. For now, let's just say I disagree with the ADP discrepancy between Winslow and Witten.

Those BOLDED are your only 2 posts from that thread, where is your reasoning again? At no point to you tell us why he will have a down year. Increased competition for targets is all you got? Avoid guys like Witten? Hardly insight or reason, lol

I'm not trying to hate, just trying to understand why you think he will have such a bad year. But if thats your reasoning, thats your reasoning. Not a good reason to think he will perform worse than Winslow tho, IMHO.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

lol, its neccessary when everything a guy posts is about opinion. Just once I would like to see a fact, instead of his rhetoric or opinion. Its a message board everyone is allowed to have an opinion, however. I Would just like to see reasoning, for instance...Why he "thinks" Witten will have a down year.

There is a Jason Witten thread in the shark pool where I posted my projections and reasoning. Witten's numbers were underwhelming with Romo at QB last year(you can look up the stats). Also, I believe the emergence of Dez Bryant will negatively impact Witten's numbers as there are only so many targets to go around between Bryant, Miles, Williams and Witten.

If you want to know details about why I feel a certain way about a player or group of players you just have to ask.

I'm down on Witten this year due to increased competition for targets and what I expect to be an improved Dalas Defense under new HC Garret. Witten is going way too early in drafts. 80 receptions, 880 yards, 5 TDs

Do yourself a favor pass on Witten this year and draft Kellen Winslow several rounds later to get the exact same production, if not better.

A) You are correct, I'm projecting a down year for Witten (as noted above) and I'm projecting an up year for Winslow.

B) I did not mean to imply that Winslow was "consistently on par" with Witten...we all know Witten's impressive recent track record.

This is how you win fantasy championships, you avoide guys that could be headed into a down year(Witten) and you nab value like Winslow, much later in the draft. That is outdrafting your competition 101.

I will elaborate more on Winslow when you open up the spotlight thread. For now, let's just say I disagree with the ADP discrepancy between Winslow and Witten.

Those BOLDED are your only 2 posts from that thread, where is your reasoning again? At no point to you tell us why he will have a down year. Increased competition for targets is all you got? Avoid guys like Witten? Hardly insight or reason, lol

I'm not trying to hate, just trying to understand why you think he will have such a bad year. But if thats your reasoning, thats your reasoning. Not a good reason to think he will perform worse than Winslow tho, IMHO.

Witten had a career high TD's last year with Romo out a lot of the season. A lot of times, your backup and young QB's tend to rely heavily on TE's, especially those as good as Witten. Td's are very hard to predict for someone like Witten, but I think it's not hard to predict that he won't surpass his career high Td mark of last year.The other fact is that Dallas ran the ball quite a bit more with Garrett as the head coach rather than Phillips. With Dallas using their 2nd round pick for yet another RB tells me they plan on trying to pound the ball this year compared to years past with Romo at the helm.

A lot of my theory/observation depends on their ability to play better defense this year. I do love the addition of Ryan as defensive coordinator in Big D and hoping they play to what we thought their potential was heading into last year.

Those are a few reasons why I think Witten's numbers will be a little lower than they normally are. It's not really a knock on Witten for me because the guy can do it all but in terms of strictly talking about fantasy football numbers, I think those that draft him as the No. 2 and 3 TE will be a little disappointed.

 

[LHUCKS]

Those are your only 2 posts from that thread, where is your reasoning again? At no point to you tell us why he will have a down year.

reread the post, because there are two reasons there.A) Decrease in targetsB) Better Dalas D, resulting in less total targets for the teamThose are reasons. You may not like them, but those are the reasons I'm using to bump Witten down a bit. Now if you want to discuss A or B more, we can dive into that if you'd like but you're going to have to tone it down.

 

[Football Critic]

Those are your only 2 posts from that thread, where is your reasoning again? At no point to you tell us why he will have a down year.

reread the post, because there are two reasons there.A) Decrease in targetsB) Better Dalas D, resulting in less total targets for the teamThose are reasons. You may not like them, but those are the reasons I'm using to bump Witten down a bit. Now if you want to discuss A or B more, we can dive into that if you'd like but you're going to have to tone it down.

Here comes the "tone it down crap"How can I tone down typed words? again...if your reading it in a bad tone, its because your reading it in your own tone your feeling. I can not help how your read in tones.Also, decreased targets, nothing has shown that he is in a decline. 10, 5, 7, 10, 8, 4 are the catches he made in the last 6 games of the year with a TD in his last 5. So no reason to think Garrett dont like to use him. And as far as Kitna to romo ratio. Explain why he had 94 catches the year before? also if you recall, T.O. even cried about the relationship tony and Jason have. I understand that you think you have provided reasons. but their is no proof but just your "hunch" that he will decrease in production. Sorry I'm not gonna not project a guy as an elite TE because you think he will decrease, when every statistical fact points to him staying elite. Rise in targets ;ast 3 years, consistant yards last 3 years, and TDs are always a crap shoot every year. Anyone who thinks Witten is in line for a decline shocks me, as if you study fantasy, his projections can only be at the elite level.decreased targets? what proof, he has gone up 3 years in a row.drafted a runner? They had MB3, Choice, and Jones...what will be different with Murray? he is far from a superstar at this point.Better Dallas D? Sorry, but I fail to see how a defense can cost targets for a player directly? Maybe the D can make some better plays, but to assume they will just be so much better is just not smart. And if they are better that would leave more time for the offense on the field, and that Oline still aint the best at the run. Nothing convincing to persuade me from believing that Witten would do anything but perform.

 

[RaiderBones]

Those are your only 2 posts from that thread, where is your reasoning again? At no point to you tell us why he will have a down year.

reread the post, because there are two reasons there.A) Decrease in targetsB) Better Dalas D, resulting in less total targets for the teamThose are reasons. You may not like them, but those are the reasons I'm using to bump Witten down a bit. Now if you want to discuss A or B more, we can dive into that if you'd like but you're going to have to tone it down.

Here comes the "tone it down crap"How can I tone down typed words? again...if your reading it in a bad tone, its because your reading it in your own tone your feeling. I can not help how your read in tones.Also, decreased targets, nothing has shown that he is in a decline. 10, 5, 7, 10, 8, 4 are the catches he made in the last 6 games of the year with a TD in his last 5. So no reason to think Garrett dont like to use him. And as far as Kitna to romo ratio. Explain why he had 94 catches the year before? also if you recall, T.O. even cried about the relationship tony and Jason have. I understand that you think you have provided reasons. but their is no proof but just your "hunch" that he will decrease in production. Sorry I'm not gonna not project a guy as an elite TE because you think he will decrease, when every statistical fact points to him staying elite. Rise in targets ;ast 3 years, consistant yards last 3 years, and TDs are always a crap shoot every year. Anyone who thinks Witten is in line for a decline shocks me, as if you study fantasy, his projections can only be at the elite level.decreased targets? what proof, he has gone up 3 years in a row.drafted a runner? They had MB3, Choice, and Jones...what will be different with Murray? he is far from a superstar at this point.Better Dallas D? Sorry, but I fail to see how a defense can cost targets for a player directly? Maybe the D can make some better plays, but to assume they will just be so much better is just not smart. And if they are better that would leave more time for the offense on the field, and that Oline still aint the best at the run. Nothing convincing to persuade me from believing that Witten would do anything but perform.

I think LHUCKS has provided some excellent arguments to why Witten will have less receptions then last year. Just because you don't want to hear them doesn't make them good arguments. Couple things to take into consideration. With a better defense the offense won't have too score as much which could mean that the team will run more to run out the clock. That could hurt Wittens receptions a little bit, probably not much or at all but it could. Now take into consideration that Dez Bryant missed the last four games of the season. You pointed out that Witten had a lot of receptions and TD's at the end of the seaon, that could be a direct result of Bryant being injured at the end of the season. With a healthy Bryant, a tougher defense, and maybe a renewed effort to get the running game going, could lead one to believe that Wittens production will come down some. Who knows how much if at all but I can see the argument for it.

 

[BroadwayG]

Call me crazy, but I think 80/880 is pretty elite for a TE.

 

[Football Critic]

Those are your only 2 posts from that thread, where is your reasoning again? At no point to you tell us why he will have a down year.

reread the post, because there are two reasons there.A) Decrease in targetsB) Better Dalas D, resulting in less total targets for the teamThose are reasons. You may not like them, but those are the reasons I'm using to bump Witten down a bit. Now if you want to discuss A or B more, we can dive into that if you'd like but you're going to have to tone it down.

Here comes the "tone it down crap"How can I tone down typed words? again...if your reading it in a bad tone, its because your reading it in your own tone your feeling. I can not help how your read in tones.Also, decreased targets, nothing has shown that he is in a decline. 10, 5, 7, 10, 8, 4 are the catches he made in the last 6 games of the year with a TD in his last 5. So no reason to think Garrett dont like to use him. And as far as Kitna to romo ratio. Explain why he had 94 catches the year before? also if you recall, T.O. even cried about the relationship tony and Jason have. I understand that you think you have provided reasons. but their is no proof but just your "hunch" that he will decrease in production. Sorry I'm not gonna not project a guy as an elite TE because you think he will decrease, when every statistical fact points to him staying elite. Rise in targets ;ast 3 years, consistant yards last 3 years, and TDs are always a crap shoot every year. Anyone who thinks Witten is in line for a decline shocks me, as if you study fantasy, his projections can only be at the elite level.decreased targets? what proof, he has gone up 3 years in a row.drafted a runner? They had MB3, Choice, and Jones...what will be different with Murray? he is far from a superstar at this point.Better Dallas D? Sorry, but I fail to see how a defense can cost targets for a player directly? Maybe the D can make some better plays, but to assume they will just be so much better is just not smart. And if they are better that would leave more time for the offense on the field, and that Oline still aint the best at the run. Nothing convincing to persuade me from believing that Witten would do anything but perform.

I think LHUCKS has provided some excellent arguments to why Witten will have less receptions then last year. Just because you don't want to hear them doesn't make them good arguments. Couple things to take into consideration. With a better defense the offense won't have too score as much which could mean that the team will run more to run out the clock. That could hurt Wittens receptions a little bit, probably not much or at all but it could. Now take into consideration that Dez Bryant missed the last four games of the season. You pointed out that Witten had a lot of receptions and TD's at the end of the seaon, that could be a direct result of Bryant being injured at the end of the season. With a healthy Bryant, a tougher defense, and maybe a renewed effort to get the running game going, could lead one to believe that Wittens production will come down some. Who knows how much if at all but I can see the argument for it.

I'm sorry, just sayin "You Think" is far from an argument or a legit reason.You can "think" what you want, as its your right, but it dont make it true. Also, you have no basis or real argument to assume Witten will have a down year.I just dont see what you guys are seeing to say Witten will have a down year. His targets rise, and catches over 90 for 3 years, no sign of him declining, none what so ever. And if he does decline in production 80+ catches is still elite from a TE in my eyes.With the reasons you state with a rookie runner and a "better" defense causing his decline, Kinda sounds like...."Drew Brees will have a down year because they drafted a runner and got a better defense, so they dont need Brees anymore or as much...his stats should decrease" lol, here how dumb that sounds? yeah, my thoughts exactly.Also, I think ADP will have a down year, they got a rookie QB, he is useless. Also I think Brady will have a down year, they drafted a runner and some defense, they dont need to pass anymore.IMHO, you need a better argument then "YOU THINK", or else its just an uneducated opinion.If "YOU THINK" Witten will lose targets because of a rookie RB and a few rookie defensive pieces, your mistaken. There is much more to fantasy football insight, rankings, and projections, then "YOU THINK".

 

[Crippler]

some more thoughts from an outsider:For you new guys, drafting only 5 WRs is often a death knell in these things especially if two or more share a bye week. Does anyone know if a team with only 5 WRs has ever won? 6-7 seems to be the sweet spot here. I often try to get 8 in the 20 rounders.

I won last year with basically 4. I drafted 6 but lost 2 before the season even began. So it was Andre, Boldin, Breaston and James Jones for me. The other 2 was Dillard and Torrey Holt who did not play a down. I was the Rivers-Roe combo which scored huge. Got lucky with McCoy to go with Forte and a couple more lower RB's in Thomas Jones, Kevin Smith, Nice D with Pitt and Wash, 2 okay PK's. I was still the top scoring team in my league so no fluke to win. So yes. You can get away with 4 WR's especially if studs and I did not consider outside of Andre, this group to be huge studs last year. I dont mind 5 if you went early on getting a couple of studs.

 

[Football Critic]

some more thoughts from an outsider:For you new guys, drafting only 5 WRs is often a death knell in these things especially if two or more share a bye week. Does anyone know if a team with only 5 WRs has ever won? 6-7 seems to be the sweet spot here. I often try to get 8 in the 20 rounders.

I won last year with basically 4. I drafted 6 but lost 2 before the season even began. So it was Andre, Boldin, Breaston and James Jones for me. The other 2 was Dillard and Torrey Holt who did not play a down. I was the Rivers-Roe combo which scored huge. Got lucky with McCoy to go with Forte and a couple more lower RB's in Thomas Jones, Kevin Smith, Nice D with Pitt and Wash, 2 okay PK's. I was still the top scoring team in my league so no fluke to win. So yes. You can get away with 4 WR's especially if studs and I did not consider outside of Andre, this group to be huge studs last year. I dont mind 5 if you went early on getting a couple of studs.

You can win with any strategy, you just increase your chances by drafting a more balanced team, IMHO.

 

[RaiderBones]

Those are your only 2 posts from that thread, where is your reasoning again? At no point to you tell us why he will have a down year.

reread the post, because there are two reasons there.A) Decrease in targetsB) Better Dalas D, resulting in less total targets for the teamThose are reasons. You may not like them, but those are the reasons I'm using to bump Witten down a bit. Now if you want to discuss A or B more, we can dive into that if you'd like but you're going to have to tone it down.

Here comes the "tone it down crap"How can I tone down typed words? again...if your reading it in a bad tone, its because your reading it in your own tone your feeling. I can not help how your read in tones.Also, decreased targets, nothing has shown that he is in a decline. 10, 5, 7, 10, 8, 4 are the catches he made in the last 6 games of the year with a TD in his last 5. So no reason to think Garrett dont like to use him. And as far as Kitna to romo ratio. Explain why he had 94 catches the year before? also if you recall, T.O. even cried about the relationship tony and Jason have. I understand that you think you have provided reasons. but their is no proof but just your "hunch" that he will decrease in production. Sorry I'm not gonna not project a guy as an elite TE because you think he will decrease, when every statistical fact points to him staying elite. Rise in targets ;ast 3 years, consistant yards last 3 years, and TDs are always a crap shoot every year. Anyone who thinks Witten is in line for a decline shocks me, as if you study fantasy, his projections can only be at the elite level.decreased targets? what proof, he has gone up 3 years in a row.drafted a runner? They had MB3, Choice, and Jones...what will be different with Murray? he is far from a superstar at this point.Better Dallas D? Sorry, but I fail to see how a defense can cost targets for a player directly? Maybe the D can make some better plays, but to assume they will just be so much better is just not smart. And if they are better that would leave more time for the offense on the field, and that Oline still aint the best at the run. Nothing convincing to persuade me from believing that Witten would do anything but perform.

I think LHUCKS has provided some excellent arguments to why Witten will have less receptions then last year. Just because you don't want to hear them doesn't make them good arguments. Couple things to take into consideration. With a better defense the offense won't have too score as much which could mean that the team will run more to run out the clock. That could hurt Wittens receptions a little bit, probably not much or at all but it could. Now take into consideration that Dez Bryant missed the last four games of the season. You pointed out that Witten had a lot of receptions and TD's at the end of the seaon, that could be a direct result of Bryant being injured at the end of the season. With a healthy Bryant, a tougher defense, and maybe a renewed effort to get the running game going, could lead one to believe that Wittens production will come down some. Who knows how much if at all but I can see the argument for it.

I'm sorry, just sayin "You Think" is far from an argument or a legit reason.You can "think" what you want, as its your right, but it dont make it true. Also, you have no basis or real argument to assume Witten will have a down year.I just dont see what you guys are seeing to say Witten will have a down year. His targets rise, and catches over 90 for 3 years, no sign of him declining, none what so ever. And if he does decline in production 80+ catches is still elite from a TE in my eyes.With the reasons you state with a rookie runner and a "better" defense causing his decline, Kinda sounds like...."Drew Brees will have a down year because they drafted a runner and got a better defense, so they dont need Brees anymore or as much...his stats should decrease" lol, here how dumb that sounds? yeah, my thoughts exactly.Also, I think ADP will have a down year, they got a rookie QB, he is useless. Also I think Brady will have a down year, they drafted a runner and some defense, they dont need to pass anymore.IMHO, you need a better argument then "YOU THINK", or else its just an uneducated opinion.If "YOU THINK" Witten will lose targets because of a rookie RB and a few rookie defensive pieces, your mistaken. There is much more to fantasy football insight, rankings, and projections, then "YOU THINK".

LOL , you crack me up Football critic. I like how you pinpointed how I talked about how a defense could affect him, which I clearly stated that it probably wouldn't if at all. I also love how you didn't even mention the fact that I pointed out that with Dez Bryant missing the last four games of the season probably helped Wittens number. I would also like to add that I never once didn't say that Witten wasn't an elite TE. I could easly see him getting anywhere from 80-95 receptoins. I was looking at Witten in the 2nd round myself but decided in another direction because I think(oops I used that phrase I think again)that Fitzgerald will have a bounce back year with a new QB. I actually have Witten as my #2 TE so well worth the late 2nd round pick you got him at.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

think.....hmmmmm

"past performance does not guarantee future success"

while fantasy football this time of year does involve statistical analysis, breakdown of trends, etc it is also about opinion, speculation, guessing, projections, and thoughts on how certain other changes might affect things......

it is impossible to put an exact figure or "points per game" on how the addition of Ingram might affect Bress or how the addition of McDaniels might affect Steven Jackson.....or how a better defense/Murray might affect Witten....or a healthy Hardesty and Tate affect Hillis and Foster...all we can really do at this point is speculate and give an opionion....

like...I don't really think there is any reason think that Witten's stat line will decrease based on what has been going on in DAL so far this off season.....however, I do think that Brees's stat line could show a decline based on the fact that they have brought in what many thought was one of the top 3 down workhorse backs in the draft and in doing so NO may look to try and run the ball a little more than they have in the past so Brees's attempts may go down slightly affecting his bottom line....do I have any statistical reasoning to back that up.....?...none whatsoever....in fact (I don't know, I haven't looked) but for all I know Brees's attempts, yards, TD's, etc may have all increased over the last few years, so based on that "trend" or whatever someone could say his stats should keep going up.....thats what they have been doing so it has to continue right...?

part of the reason we participate in this wonderful hobby is that when we all sit down at our drafts we hope that we know more than the other 11 or so guys in the room.....if everything was based strictly on statistical analysis, trends and reasoning, everybody would have the exact same draft sheet and players would be picked in a predetremined order....

take Lhucks opinions or ignore them.......but reading through someone continually slamming on his opinions and lack of reasoning is more useless than reading his opionions in the first place....

 

[Football Critic]

think.....hmmmmm

"past performance does not guarantee future success"

while fantasy football this time of year does involve statistical analysis, breakdown of trends, etc it is also about opinion, speculation, guessing, projections, and thoughts on how certain other changes might affect things......

it is impossible to put an exact figure or "points per game" on how the addition of Ingram might affect Bress or how the addition of McDaniels might affect Steven Jackson.....or how a better defense/Murray might affect Witten....or a healthy Hardesty and Tate affect Hillis and Foster...all we can really do at this point is speculate and give an opionion....

like...I don't really think there is any reason think that Witten's stat line will decrease based on what has been going on in DAL so far this off season.....however, I do think that Brees's stat line could show a decline based on the fact that they have brought in what many thought was one of the top 3 down workhorse backs in the draft and in doing so NO may look to try and run the ball a little more than they have in the past so Brees's attempts may go down slightly affecting his bottom line....do I have any statistical reasoning to back that up.....?...none whatsoever....in fact (I don't know, I haven't looked) but for all I know Brees's attempts, yards, TD's, etc may have all increased over the last few years, so based on that "trend" or whatever someone could say his stats should keep going up.....thats what they have been doing so it has to continue right...?

part of the reason we participate in this wonderful hobby is that when we all sit down at our drafts we hope that we know more than the other 11 or so guys in the room.....if everything was based strictly on statistical analysis, trends and reasoning, everybody would have the exact same draft sheet and players would be picked in a predetremined order....

take Lhucks opinions or ignore them.......but reading through someone continually slamming on his opinions and lack of reasoning is more useless than reading his opionions in the first place....

K again, these forums are for debate...take the debate or leave it, you dont have to join in Ref. You just hate on everything I say, if you agree or not, so your beyond bias! Practice what you preech, "take my opinions, or ignore them" and thats a quote from you as bolded above!And as far as KRSone, I love how you think its about you, but I was talking to Hucks as this debate is with him and his reasoning for why Witten will decline. Now feel free to chime in, as you already are. But again, on a football forum, sorry to ask for a little more in depth analysis then "I THINK".

And as far as insight for the upcoming year, everyone has thier thoughts on what they think, but I'll take educated thought with statistical backing and analysis over some dude saying "His stats will decrease, they got a rookie runner and a better defense, so he will not get targets."

You know what, nevermind, you convinced me...Witten should suck because of those reasons. His talent and ability to be a safety net dont matter anymore, neither does the fact that his targets have not gone down with Barber, Jones, or Choice, so your right, someone like Murray should matter much more. They got that rookie runner! Glad its solved!

Oh also, before Bryant was hurt for the last 4 games, Witten had 2 games with 10 catches and one with 9 catches...so your Bryant argument is not convincing at all either!

Fact : Witten is an elite tight end and his stats and track record prove it with no sign of falling back.

Opinion: Wittens targets will decrease, no proof or legit reason to assume.

I'll just stick to the facts.

If Witten had shown signs of a decline I would not feel this way, but he has not.

 

[valence]

Was just going to post the same Ref. I'm pretty sure earlier in this thread Critic said something about not using last years stats as the sole means of predicting future success, but now it seems that he only finds an opinion valuable if it is backed up by those very stats.

Nobody knows when a given player is going to fall off a cliff and past production is not a 100% guarantee of future success especially in situations where things will be completely different the following year. Case in point with Ref's example of Hardesty/Hillis.

No one is arguing that Witten isn't an elite TE. However, if you can get similar production a few rounds later then there is no reason to blow that 2nd rounder on Witten. That seems to be LHUCKS argument as he believes that Winslow will offer around the same production as Witten at a much cheaper price. Whether he is right or wrong we won't know until it plays out, but if everyone valued players the same then this would be a pretty boring hobby.

Whether or not you want to admit it, gut feeling is a big part of making your projections. We all of examples of grabbing players in a round that other people thought was "way too early". If you drafted Foster in the 7-10th round range like I did in a few leagues then you were probably pretty happy with your "reach".

Maybe you don't do your own projections and just do whatever the DD or your favorite FF magazine tells you to do though, I don't know.

 

[LHUCKS]

Was just going to post the same Ref. I'm pretty sure earlier in this thread Critic said something about not using last years stats as the sole means of predicting future success, but now it seems that he only finds an opinion valuable if it is backed up by those very stats. Nobody knows when a given player is going to fall off a cliff and past production is not a 100% guarantee of future success especially in situations where things will be completely different the following year. Case in point with Ref's example of Hardesty/Hillis.No one is arguing that Witten isn't an elite TE. However, if you can get similar production a few rounds later then there is no reason to blow that 2nd rounder on Witten. That seems to be LHUCKS argument as he believes that Winslow will offer around the same production as Witten at a much cheaper price. Whether he is right or wrong we won't know until it plays out, but if everyone valued players the same then this would be a pretty boring hobby. Whether or not you want to admit it, gut feeling is a big part of making your projections. We all of examples of grabbing players in a round that other people thought was "way too early". If you drafted Foster in the 7-10th round range like I did in a few leagues then you were probably pretty happy with your "reach".Maybe you don't do your own projections and just do whatever the DD or your favorite FF magazine tells you to do though, I don't know.

 

[BroadwayG]

But again, on a football forum, sorry to ask for a little more in depth analysis then "I THINK".

I asked you for that and you put me on ignore.

 

[BassNBrew]

IMO lhucks brought some decent arguments to the table in this debate which was nice for a change.

 

[LHUCKS]

IMO lhucks brought some decent arguments to the table in this debate which was nice for a change.

Don't be mad because I outdrafted you in both WSL and SSL this year.

 

[Football Critic]

IMO lhucks brought some decent arguments to the table in this debate which was nice for a change.

Don't be mad because I outdrafted you in both WSL and SSL this year.

If thinking that his targets will decrease because they drafted ANOTHER RUNNER, and because they will have a BETTER DEFENSE, are good arguments...all I can say is wow! Why didnt his targets go down when they drafted Felix? or Choice? Oh and why did the stud defnese not perform up to expectations last year? Because they are not good, even with a few new players.

You cant always go off last year as far as stats go, but you can use it to show growth or direction, good or bad.

This whole thing has been about attacking the messanger not the message.

Fantasy is a science at points, sorry you fail to see that, not always played off hunches!

To say that Witten is going to have a down year, is off of thought only, no proof backs that up. People brought up Garrett will matter, I showed statistical proof that he wont. then people said Dez being out had an impact, more stats say that is not the case. Then people say they drafted a runner... Felix, Choice, and MB3 didnt matter, why will Murray? Oh, then people said the defense will get better. Have you seen them play since they sucked last year? No. So, my point is you only have stats and key personal and reputation to go off. Those are what matter to me, not someone I never met saying "I think" when they have a bad track record as it is.

So yes, in a debate you need to provide more then just what you think.

Debate or debating is a formal method of interactive and representational argument. Debate is a broader form of argument than logical argument, which only examines consistency from axiom, and factual argument, which only examines what is or isn't the case or rhetoric which is a technique of persuasion. Though logical consistency, factual accuracy and some degree of emotional appeal to the audience are important elements of the art of persuasion, in debating, one side often prevails over the other side by presenting a superior "context" and/or framework of the issue, which is far more subtle and strategic.

Also, according to everyone who bashed Hucks before say he is not reliable, why believe him now on just his "Thoughts", ahh because more times then not...its not about football, its about attacking the poster.

But it dont matter how many good points I make and backup with stats and reason, you guys see the name Critic and bash. That gives me more joy then you agreeing with me!!!

 

[Football Critic]

Was just going to post the same Ref. I'm pretty sure earlier in this thread Critic said something about not using last years stats as the sole means of predicting future success, but now it seems that he only finds an opinion valuable if it is backed up by those very stats. Nobody knows when a given player is going to fall off a cliff and past production is not a 100% guarantee of future success especially in situations where things will be completely different the following year. Case in point with Ref's example of Hardesty/Hillis.

No one is arguing that Witten isn't an elite TE. However, if you can get similar production a few rounds later then there is no reason to blow that 2nd rounder on Witten. That seems to be LHUCKS argument as he believes that Winslow will offer around the same production as Witten at a much cheaper price. Whether he is right or wrong we won't know until it plays out, but if everyone valued players the same then this would be a pretty boring hobby.

Whether or not you want to admit it, gut feeling is a big part of making your projections. We all of examples of grabbing players in a round that other people thought was "way too early". If you drafted Foster in the 7-10th round range like I did in a few leagues then you were probably pretty happy with your "reach".

Maybe you don't do your own projections and just do whatever the DD or your favorite FF magazine tells you to do though, I don't know.

Please quote me, as I looked back thru this whole thread, and said nothing of the sort....Just further proves your barking up the wrong tree with uneducated comments like that.

To misquote someone is bad in the journalism world, hows that look for you. Looks just like someone starting trouble with an uneducated comment.

So anything else you say after that has no credibility...to me!

An outsider huh? Maybe just another LHucks alias?

 

[LHUCKS]

An outsider huh? Maybe just another LHucks alias?

valence has been around longer than you'll ever be...chief.

 

[Football Critic]

An outsider huh? Maybe just another LHucks alias?

valence has been around longer than you'll ever be...chief.

Then if he has been here so long, maybe he hould learn to quote people more accuratly.Just like you Hucks, avoid everything I'm saying about Witten, as you cant answer my questions?Why did his targets not decrease when they drafted Jones or Choice?And what has Dallas done to make the defense SO much better, that it will effect Witten? A new DC, I like Ryan, but he really wasnt that good with the Browns?I'm sure I'll get no response except "I THINK"I'm tryin to stick to the Witten debate, but when you have no points, I guess you have to come at me!This is getting nowhere doing what this thread is meant for. Discussing and debating!

 

[LHUCKS]

I have decided Football Critic is an obvious alias created for the sole purpose of fishing, primarily for me.

Unfortunately for him, I'm a bit too bright for that.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

An outsider huh? Maybe just another LHucks alias?

valence has been around longer than you'll ever be...chief.

Then if he has been here so long, maybe he hould learn to quote people more accuratly.Just like you Hucks, avoid everything I'm saying about Witten, as you cant answer my questions?

Why did his targets not decrease when they drafted Jones or Choice?

And what has Dallas done to make the defense SO much better, that it will effect Witten? A new DC, I like Ryan, but he really wasnt that good with the Browns?

I'm sure I'll get no response except "I THINK"

I'm tryin to stick to the Witten debate, but when you have no points, I guess you have to come at me!

This is getting nowhere doing what this thread is meant for. Discussing and debating!

kind of like when you said I had a history of complaining about draft list on the first page not being updated in a timely manner.....oh and that you affect my blood pressure....

 

[Football Critic]

An outsider huh? Maybe just another LHucks alias?

valence has been around longer than you'll ever be...chief.

Then if he has been here so long, maybe he hould learn to quote people more accuratly.Just like you Hucks, avoid everything I'm saying about Witten, as you cant answer my questions?

Why did his targets not decrease when they drafted Jones or Choice?

And what has Dallas done to make the defense SO much better, that it will effect Witten? A new DC, I like Ryan, but he really wasnt that good with the Browns?

I'm sure I'll get no response except "I THINK"

I'm tryin to stick to the Witten debate, but when you have no points, I guess you have to come at me!

This is getting nowhere doing what this thread is meant for. Discussing and debating!

kind of like when you said I had a history of complaining about draft list on the first page not being updated in a timely manner.....oh and that you affect my blood pressure....

LOL, Ref we get it you dont like me, and all your comments have nothing to do with football just attacks on me. If I do not get your blood pressure boiling, why do you respond with no football info and just hate towards a fellow poster on anything I say?You dont like how I say my opinion, or respond to others weak opinion...if u dont like it, oh well, get over yourself. I notice you never respond to the education i give you in the PMs and just come here for rhetoric, If i was you with no point, i would to.

So why do you keep stiring the pot, people like you are the real problems. Not people like me who just try to talk football and get the best analysis possible.

Stinking, as you said in your PM, all your doing is trying to get me suspended, keep up the good work as a respectable person on fbg that you are.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

you're right dude....I offer very little to these things....my bad...

 

[Stinkin Ref]

whoa....I now see that last part you added about you saying all I was trying to do was get you suspended....you're crazy....I never said that....in fact it was you that said that with all your blood pressure talk....something about "I'll get you so mad and your blood pressure so high you'll say something and get suspended"....

you're barking up the wrong tree with that noise.....I actually find you very entertaining....and it wasn't me that reported you for suspension....

good try though.....

 

[BroadwayG]

 

[Football Critic]

you're right dude....I offer very little to these things....my bad...

I meant currently to this discussion, sorry for the confusion on that part and if you took me out of context.Ref I see you break down teams, I respect it...but I'm not going after you personally every second I can get, like you drool to look for holes in everything I said.With every post I make, I am zoned into football talk only. I really dont like having to but heads, but when people dont like you, they miss the message all together. Obviously thats what happened here yet again.You dont have to agree, listen, or trust in anything I say. But I enjoy posting here to discuss football, i hate to see debate lead to attacks on people. attack my knowledge of the game all you like, but just hating a person for how they share their opinion on a forum, no matter what the tone is crazy.And as far as a suspension talk, you said it, but maybe i took it out of context...that stuff happens as we so frequently see here.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

you're right dude....I offer very little to these things....my bad...

I meant currently to this discussion, sorry for the confusion on that part and if you took me out of context.Ref I see you break down teams, I respect it...but I'm not going after you personally every second I can get, like you drool to look for holes in everything I said.

With every post I make, I am zoned into football talk only. I really dont like having to but heads, but when people dont like you, they miss the message all together. Obviously thats what happened here yet again.

You dont have to agree, listen, or trust in anything I say. But I enjoy posting here to discuss football, i hate to see debate lead to attacks on people. attack my knowledge of the game all you like, but just hating a person for how they share their opinion on a forum, no matter what the tone is crazy.

And as far as a suspension talk, you said it, but maybe i took it out of context...that stuff happens as we so frequently see here.

I didn't say it....not even anything close....and in fact, the odds are that you probably have me confused with one of the other guys you went a few rounds with.....possibly the one that actually reported you....

 

[Football Critic]

you're right dude....I offer very little to these things....my bad...

I meant currently to this discussion, sorry for the confusion on that part and if you took me out of context.Ref I see you break down teams, I respect it...but I'm not going after you personally every second I can get, like you drool to look for holes in everything I said.

With every post I make, I am zoned into football talk only. I really dont like having to but heads, but when people dont like you, they miss the message all together. Obviously thats what happened here yet again.

You dont have to agree, listen, or trust in anything I say. But I enjoy posting here to discuss football, i hate to see debate lead to attacks on people. attack my knowledge of the game all you like, but just hating a person for how they share their opinion on a forum, no matter what the tone is crazy.

And as far as a suspension talk, you said it, but maybe i took it out of context...that stuff happens as we so frequently see here.

I didn't say it....not even anything close....and in fact, the odds are that you probably have me confused with one of the other guys you went a few rounds with.....possibly the one that actually reported you....

Agree to disagree....I just really want to talk football!

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

you're right dude....I offer very little to these things....my bad...

I meant currently to this discussion, sorry for the confusion on that part and if you took me out of context.Ref I see you break down teams, I respect it...but I'm not going after you personally every second I can get, like you drool to look for holes in everything I said.

With every post I make, I am zoned into football talk only. I really dont like having to but heads, but when people dont like you, they miss the message all together. Obviously thats what happened here yet again.

You dont have to agree, listen, or trust in anything I say. But I enjoy posting here to discuss football, i hate to see debate lead to attacks on people. attack my knowledge of the game all you like, but just hating a person for how they share their opinion on a forum, no matter what the tone is crazy.

And as far as a suspension talk, you said it, but maybe i took it out of context...that stuff happens as we so frequently see here.

I didn't say it....not even anything close....and in fact, the odds are that you probably have me confused with one of the other guys you went a few rounds with.....possibly the one that actually reported you....

Agree to disagree....I just really want to talk football!

Football Critic, I haven't quite figured you out. You know something about football, but you are very impatient and lack polish. I think you have a lot of potential to be a quality poster and hope you continue to progress in that direction. I can see you going in either direction at this point, a flash in the pan type poster who says a lot of things for a short while and you never hear from them again or someone who learns how to curb their emotions when writing and is able to use their wisdom to make an intelligent point without insulting the other side.

 

[valence]

jeez dude I didn't quote you. I said "i'm pretty sure". Which means, I think I vaguely remember that but can't be bothered to go back through 4 billion posts to actually use the quote function on the board.

And yes I'm definitely a lhucks alias. A zookeeper alias created eight years ago to torment you during the 2011 fantasy football offseason.

You proved yourself to be a true message board troll when you completely ignored the rest of the post in which I presented logical reasoning for you as to where lhucks was coming from. I also questioned lhuck's strong opinion on Roy Helu without insulting him; instead attempting to educate you how to create a confrontational point without insulting the other poster.

Instead of commenting on any of that you chose to pick out a meaningless point of contention that didn't add anything to the discussion.

sorry but I'm not paying your bridge toll.

 

[Football Critic]

jeez dude I didn't quote you. I said "i'm pretty sure". Which means, I think I vaguely remember that but can't be bothered to go back through 4 billion posts to actually use the quote function on the board.And yes I'm definitely a lhucks alias. A zookeeper alias created eight years ago to torment you during the 2011 fantasy football offseason.You proved yourself to be a true message board troll when you completely ignored the rest of the post in which I presented logical reasoning for you as to where lhucks was coming from. I also questioned lhuck's strong opinion on Roy Helu without insulting him; instead attempting to educate you how to create a confrontational point without insulting the other poster. Instead of commenting on any of that you chose to pick out a meaningless point of contention that didn't add anything to the discussion.sorry but I'm not paying your bridge toll.

Sorry I was to busy defending myself of being wrongly accused of my credibility. Hate my tone and way of showing it all you like, but dont say things that you are not sure of, just any rule of thumb anywhere. And another reason I didnt respond to your other remarks, was you made decent points, I wasnt gonna dispute with much.

 

[Football Critic]

you're right dude....I offer very little to these things....my bad...

I meant currently to this discussion, sorry for the confusion on that part and if you took me out of context.Ref I see you break down teams, I respect it...but I'm not going after you personally every second I can get, like you drool to look for holes in everything I said.

With every post I make, I am zoned into football talk only. I really dont like having to but heads, but when people dont like you, they miss the message all together. Obviously thats what happened here yet again.

You dont have to agree, listen, or trust in anything I say. But I enjoy posting here to discuss football, i hate to see debate lead to attacks on people. attack my knowledge of the game all you like, but just hating a person for how they share their opinion on a forum, no matter what the tone is crazy.

And as far as a suspension talk, you said it, but maybe i took it out of context...that stuff happens as we so frequently see here.

I didn't say it....not even anything close....and in fact, the odds are that you probably have me confused with one of the other guys you went a few rounds with.....possibly the one that actually reported you....

Agree to disagree....I just really want to talk football!

Football Critic, I haven't quite figured you out. You know something about football, but you are very impatient and lack polish. I think you have a lot of potential to be a quality poster and hope you continue to progress in that direction. I can see you going in either direction at this point, a flash in the pan type poster who says a lot of things for a short while and you never hear from them again or someone who learns how to curb their emotions when writing and is able to use their wisdom to make an intelligent point without insulting the other side.

I'm tough to understand! I assure you, 90% of my somewhat abbrasive posts to others and how they see them, is not really how it sounds. Its tough to convey in text, but trust me all my talk of ignorance, or uneducation is all football related. There are many very smart people, who just dont understand football as much as they think they do. I have strong feelings and passion, and take this very seriously, more serious then many. I may sound abbrasive, but I'm just here to talk football. I assume people dont take things personally, maybe thats my fault...I'm sorry!But since a post was directed at me, I figured I would respond....honestly I much rather talk Football!

 

[gandalas]

Draft thread and all team rosters now updated. Sorry for the delay! I was

 

[Football Critic]

Draft thread and all team rosters now updated. Sorry for the delay! I was

Good work, thx for maintaining it...if no one else tells u!

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

Thanks for all the work you did on our draft. I appreciate your efforts and I'm sure others in SSL4 are grateful for the work you put forth. Much obliged partner

 

[gandalas]

Now I just have to win!

Honestly, I will feel lucky to finish in the top half. This is my first go-around, and I think it is definitely a learning experience for me.

 

[gandalas]

Revisiting my team before the start of the season, 3 months later:

Draft Spot 7 - gandalas

QB: Drew Brees QB5

QB: Carson Palmer QB30

QB: Christian Ponder QB33

At QB, I seem to only have 1 starter now. Still, that starter is Drew Brees, so he should be good for a while. The concern is that he has a week 11 bye, which is both good and bad. Good in that I will last until week 11, bad that the only teams left that late will be pretty good. Well, maybe Ponder will be starting by then...

RB: Maurice Jones-Drew RB7

RB: DeAngelo Williams RB22

RB: Beanie Wells RB39

RB: Tim Hightower RB60

What a GREAT 3 months for my RB situation. I went from having 2 studs to 4 definite starters to begin the season. This will be a strength for my team, for sure.

WR: Brandon Marshall WR13

WR: Brandon Lloyd WR23

WR: Anthony Armstrong WR46

WR: Robert Meachem WR53

WR: Jerrico Cotchery WR72

Armstrong went from Starter to backup, so I could have some depth issues here. Still, Orton still being there can only help Lloyd. Cotchery on the steelers could be good or bad - they pass more than the Jets, but he is not even WR3 yet.

TE: Dustin Keller TE12

TE: Marcedes Lewis TE14

This position is about the same as when I drafted it. Decent week-to-week upside

DEF: Chicago Bears Defense DEF14

DEF: Denver Broncos DEF30

Nothing major happening here

PK: Neil Rackers PK7

PK: Jay Feeley PK28

I Still feel that rackers should be a top-5 K when it is said and done, and Feeley should do just fine as well.

All in all, although my RB situation improved DRAMATICALLY in the past 3 months, my lack of depth at QB and WR could cost me. We shall see how far I can go!

 

[gandalas]

Week 1:

QB - Brees 39.25

RB - Wells 20.20

RB - Hightower 18.70

WR - Meachem - 18.00

WR - Armstrong - 10.40

WR3 - ??? (Brandon Marshall and Brandon Lloyd still to play)

TE - Keller - 22.10

K - Rackers - 10.00

DEF - Bears - 18.00 (Broncos Still to play)

I am in 2nd place with 156.65 points with my top 2 WRs still to go. I am hopeful of getting top score and the all-important amnesty for next week.

 

[BassNBrew]

QB: B+ Cam will play and his running stats will help. Volek would be a wasted pick on a thin roster.

You would rather have Phillip Rivers and Cam Newton than Bradford and Schaub??

Rivers and Newton.Last year Rivers outscored the Schuab/Bradford 8 of 16 weeks - push.

Last year Rivers scored 423 (included Clausen's 11 pts in wk 10 for River's bye) v. S/B total of 404 - advantage Rivers.

Last year posted 20 or more points in 12 wks v. 12 for the S/B combo - push.

Last year adding Bradford to Schaub netted you 6 (wk 1) + 2 (3) + 3 (4) + 21 (7 Schaub bye) + 9 (8) + 5 (11) + 13 (12) + 2 (16). Tossing out the bye week, that's only 40 pts Bradford added over 15 weeks.

Bradford should improve but adding Newton to the equation should offset this.

Just for discussion, Bradford would have helped River's by 32 points (excluding bye) and Schaub would have helped Rivers by 54 pts.

Adding that second QB when your primary doesn't get hurt usually doesn't add many points. I did this excerise earlier for addig Flacco to Brees and as I recall Flacco improved the total by 15 points.

Anyway, that's why you got a B- (4-5 teams will outscore you) and he got a B+ (2-3 teams will outscore him). A B- is a high grade in my book.

I disagree, I would much rather have Bradford and Schaub as a duo compared to Rivers and Newton. I think your logic is faulty at best. Your lucky if Newton will help 1 or 2 weeks this year, Panthers are a very bad team. Where as Bradford could easly help out half the scoring weeks. You are way underestimating Bradfords value in my opinion.

Please provide details where my logic is faulty. Everytime I run the numbers, the second QB is marginalized. At QB, a stud and a dog getting reps always out performs two average to slightly above average qbs.Some thoughts...

1. If Bradford helps out in half the scoring weeks, then Schaub was drafted too high.

2. QB is a unique position. A bad week for good QBs is 200 yd and 1 td. When your base is 16 pts it's hard for a backup to be a big contributor. Much easier to shut down a WR/TE and then RB in these leagues. Even when you have a stud like Foster or AJ from last year, your backup has another roster spot or two to shoot at surpassing.

3. Newton's role should only be 1-2 weeks given where Rivers was drafted and his past performance.

To answer number 1. Not necessarily. Bradford and Schaub could both be playing at a high level and they switch off back and forth each week, giving a person a damn good score each week. Plus I would rather have Bradford covering my main QB's bye week over a rookie QB on a bad team in a lockout year.

 

[RaiderBones]

QB: B+ Cam will play and his running stats will help. Volek would be a wasted pick on a thin roster.

You would rather have Phillip Rivers and Cam Newton than Bradford and Schaub??

Rivers and Newton.Last year Rivers outscored the Schuab/Bradford 8 of 16 weeks - push.

Last year Rivers scored 423 (included Clausen's 11 pts in wk 10 for River's bye) v. S/B total of 404 - advantage Rivers.

Last year posted 20 or more points in 12 wks v. 12 for the S/B combo - push.

Last year adding Bradford to Schaub netted you 6 (wk 1) + 2 (3) + 3 (4) + 21 (7 Schaub bye) + 9 (8) + 5 (11) + 13 (12) + 2 (16). Tossing out the bye week, that's only 40 pts Bradford added over 15 weeks.

Bradford should improve but adding Newton to the equation should offset this.

Just for discussion, Bradford would have helped River's by 32 points (excluding bye) and Schaub would have helped Rivers by 54 pts.

Adding that second QB when your primary doesn't get hurt usually doesn't add many points. I did this excerise earlier for addig Flacco to Brees and as I recall Flacco improved the total by 15 points.

Anyway, that's why you got a B- (4-5 teams will outscore you) and he got a B+ (2-3 teams will outscore him). A B- is a high grade in my book.

I disagree, I would much rather have Bradford and Schaub as a duo compared to Rivers and Newton. I think your logic is faulty at best. Your lucky if Newton will help 1 or 2 weeks this year, Panthers are a very bad team. Where as Bradford could easly help out half the scoring weeks. You are way underestimating Bradfords value in my opinion.

Please provide details where my logic is faulty. Everytime I run the numbers, the second QB is marginalized. At QB, a stud and a dog getting reps always out performs two average to slightly above average qbs.Some thoughts...

1. If Bradford helps out in half the scoring weeks, then Schaub was drafted too high.

2. QB is a unique position. A bad week for good QBs is 200 yd and 1 td. When your base is 16 pts it's hard for a backup to be a big contributor. Much easier to shut down a WR/TE and then RB in these leagues. Even when you have a stud like Foster or AJ from last year, your backup has another roster spot or two to shoot at surpassing.

3. Newton's role should only be 1-2 weeks given where Rivers was drafted and his past performance.

To answer number 1. Not necessarily. Bradford and Schaub could both be playing at a high level and they switch off back and forth each week, giving a person a damn good score each week. Plus I would rather have Bradford covering my main QB's bye week over a rookie QB on a bad team in a lockout year.

He had one good game against a bad defense. If he does the same thing against a good defense like the Ravens, then I will admit I was wrong.

 

[gandalas]

Week 1 Scores (for those too lazy to wait on his site to load...)

gandalas 182.05

MrTwo94 180.70

by_the_sea_wannabe 175.60

Go Blue 167.55

Jackal King 155.80

Iwannabeacowboybaby! 149.15

HitNRun 149.00

BusMan 146.80

snellman 145.45

Broadway G 145.15

Football Critic 126.65

krsone21 120.20

LHUCKS 118.90

Ghost of Bill Walsh 118.30

CommuterMan 112.60

Go Pack 107.95

Go Pack is OUT

Despite a 31.05 point Effort from Michael Vick, Pack was let down by his lack of RB scoring, with CJ Spiller leading the way with 9.10 points. Ingram only had 4.00 as his second RB. Holmes and Moss both scored over 13, but that was it at WR. TE and PK were both decent, with 11.90 and 12.00 points, but he only got 6 points from his defense.

Gandalas wins Amnesty for Week 2

39.25 from Drew Brees, 20.20 and 18.70 from Beanie and Hightower. 20.90 from Marshall, 18.00 from Meachem, and 14.90 from Lloyd. 22.10 from Keller at TE, 10.00 from Neil Rackers, and 18.00 from the Bears defense. Great scoring all around - I hope I didn't use all my mojo up in week 1.