What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Stock Thread (7 Viewers)

I'm glad I sold ATIP shortly after it converted. It has been heavily touted by Uncle Bruce (he loves SPACs) and is headed to $3 today. It is spooking me off the entire SPAC spectrum, tbh. 

 
Had an 11% gain in AMZN, but have round-tripped. Now I'm with GrouperNGuinness. :rant:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
JB Breakfast Club said:
I'm glad I sold ATIP shortly after it converted. It has been heavily touted by Uncle Bruce (he loves SPACs) and is headed to $3 today. It is spooking me off the entire SPAC spectrum, tbh. 
Click to expand...
That SPAC run was fun but it was as insane as the meme stuff. Historically, SPACs are terrible investments so big premiums on all of them made no sense since something like 80% lose a lot OC value. They are companies that don’t go through the rigors of auditing that happens on IPOs. Stuff like ATIP isn’t a surprise. RIDE isn’t a surprise or NKLA. I think the new rules exposed some of these and will help them not be as much of a crap shoot. Still some good companies but don’t be surprised as more go belly up. 

 
Capella said:
Figured that -7% for amazon would drift back to -3 or something when the market opened. I am surprised by that. 
Click to expand...
Me too. The one that shocks me a bit is TEAM. Up 24%? It had a nice beat but no better than a lot of recent tech stocks. AMZN beat just as well the past two quarters. I’ve been watching TEAMS for a while, but they are really richly valued now. TWLO has higher revenue, is growing faster and beat on top and bottom but is down 3%. TEAM is even more expensive than DOCU.

 
caustic said:
Portfolio has been on autopilot lately, which has probably been a good thing given my track record with trades in 2021. The one thing I've still been checking periodically is HGEN, are we still going to get rich off that thing? 
Click to expand...
I remain extremely confident. Bought more the other day. 

 
$COST has just been a rock for me since I started my position. $ABNB up a little, $DCBO and $DOCN up a little, and, of course, the greatest stock of all time $GLBE is up over 2% on no news and hit another ATH. I've trimmed enough so I'm just strapped in for the rug pull. 

 
I posted this in the Options thread but in the spirit of spreading around the schadenfreude, got completely creamed today on the back of an AMZN August call and several PINS calls. Biggest one-day drop in my accounts which will happen when you trade options. Went on tilt just a smidge to buy more PINS calls, one more AMZN call, and a SAVA call for good measure. I'll be at the bar drinking heavily.

 
I have 125,000 in AMZN, and I'm not buying anymore today, mostly because I'm honestly too overweight even though I bought years ago and have a great return to date. I'm also not selling at the moment. That said, that report spooked me a bit. AWS is the only thing really driving the boat, as has been the case for a while now. I like the ad numbers too, but the combination of low margins and slowing rev growth I have to consider what is it really worth, and 60 PE isn't exactly a value unless it consistently crushes. 

Another thing that concerns me is their cost of labor. They have 1.3 million employees, as many employees as the state of Maine has people. All labor, especially technical labor, isn't getting any cheaper, ever. That is a huge variable cost going forward.

On the positive side, the bottom line was solid. I realized rev comps were going to be tougher to beat going forward, and (unfortunately) COVID is far from "over" and online everything is here to stay.

I do think the bears case makes more sense to me today than it did a week ago. One thing I don't see the bears taking into consideration in their arguments is innovation. AMZN is still spending a lot on R&D and building out efficiencies that historically has proven to be rev drivers in the future. Who knows what they can come up with next, but they'll need to come up with something.

My greatest fear is that they become considered slow growth "old tech" and wander the tech desert like IBM did for 8 years. In theory I like that Bezos left control with the AWS guy since that is what pays the bills, but until I get a sense of "what's next" for AMZN, I'm nervous about the next few years and have reset my expectations a bit. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Spooked me a bit too. I don’t think it’s hitting 4k this year now and may not even finish at 3500. But while today is hard to look at in my account I’m holding it at least another 15-20 years so it ultimately doesn’t matter. 
 

If I were trading it I’d be spooked a little for sure. They took a step back yesterday, first time I can remember thinking that in forever. 

 
kevzilla said:
My only green stocks today are QS and STMH  :loco:
Click to expand...
These two are locked in a grim struggle for the bottom. Whichever one falls so far that it'll only cost me $1k to double down, I'll do it. Will it be 50 shares of QS or 5000 shares of STMH? Stay tuned!

 
@ericttspikes @Capella

I’m not worried but I do think my $4k prediction may be tough, depends on Q3. I think low margin retail hurt them, probably expected too much but profit looks solid. I am certainly not thinking IBM here, I mean come on, 27% revenue growth isn’t IBM. IBM’s 2020 revenue was 8% lower than 2017 and Amazon’s revenue is 117% higher over the same period. IBM and Amazon aren’t in the same universe. That’s overreaction to a quarter that missed on top line growth (still 27%) and beat earnings by 66%. For Amazon, 2020 was a giant leap forward over 2019, almost 40% growth and 2021 looks like 20% over 2020, which would be remarkable considering how much they jumped in 2020 due to COVID. It feels bad because they were on a ridiculous roll and the 2020 bar was set high but if you didn’t have the estimates you would be thinking 27% growth in revenue and like 100% growth in earnings for a company their size would be solid. Look at Tesla. Their 2021 revenue growth looks to be slightly higher than Amazon (2020 growth was about the same), but even though Amazon’s market cap is only 2.5x Tesla’s, Amazon’s got 9x the revenue and 9x the profit. I think Amazon is more fair value and Tesla over valued, just showing an example of another growth stock making Amazon look cheap.

Also, in terms of the low margin worry, I saw one article today  that I thought was pretty interesting for long term. Their non-pure retail business is almost as big as retail. It was like a $58B to $55B split. AWS is only $15B of that $55B. So membership fees, Prime Video, advertising, AWS, 3rd party selling fees, etc. are almost as much revenue as the pure sold by Amazon retail. That’s great news because that’s much more profitable and why even though they are still in growth mode, they are making a #### ton of profit and reinvesting it. Their profit the last 4 quarters is $29B or so and their R&D is $45B. Their R&D is double Apple’s, almost double Google’s and double FB’s and all of these companies are printing money on a scale that dwarfs everyone else.

Anyway, I am holding for a bit but may trim more to try and find some higher return potential stocks. My only issue is that it’s in a taxable account and I hate taxes.

 
ericttspikes said:
I have 125,000 in AMZN, and I'm not buying anymore today, mostly because I'm honestly too overweight even though I bought years ago and have a great return to date. I'm also not selling at the moment. That said, that report spooked me a bit. AWS is the only thing really driving the boat, as has been the case for a while now. I like the ad numbers too, but the combination of low margins and slowing rev growth I have to consider what is it really worth, and 60 PE isn't exactly a value unless it consistently crushes. 

Another thing that concerns me is their cost of labor. They have 1.3 million employees, as many employees as the state of Maine has people. All labor, especially technical labor, isn't getting any cheaper, ever. That is a huge variable cost going forward.

On the positive side, the bottom line was solid. I realized rev comps were going to be tougher to beat going forward, and (unfortunately) COVID is far from "over" and online everything is here to stay.

I do think the bears case makes more sense to me today than it did a week ago. One thing I don't see the bears taking into consideration in their arguments is innovation. AMZN is still spending a lot on R&D and building out efficiencies that historically has proven to be rev drivers in the future. Who knows what they can come up with next, but they'll need to come up with something.

My greatest fear is that they become considered slow growth "old tech" and wander the tech desert like IBM did for 8 years. In theory I like that Bezos left control with the AWS guy since that is what pays the bills, but until I get a sense of "what's next" for AMZN, I'm nervous about the next few years and have reset my expectations a bit. 
Click to expand...
You've made a pretty Penny even if that's not shares. More than I'd want to have in one company but that's why I'll be working to 55 🤷‍♂️

 
-OZ- said:
You've made a pretty Penny even if that's not shares. More than I'd want to have in one company but that's why I'll be working to 55 🤷‍♂️
Click to expand...
38 shares. I bought them in 2016 and 17 sub 1000. Didn't seem like a huge investment at the time and just let it roll. In hindsight, probably not the best idea to not trim like I do with most my other stocks. I was just never really too concerned with holding AMZN. Still not too concerned, but my confidence is a bit shook right now. Should be ok, but might take longer to get to my goal. Was looking to trim at 5k and as unrealistic as it seems today, my goal was 10k a share and thinking that would hit in 5-10 years.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Andrew74
2024 FBG Stock Contest
2 3
Replies
104
Views
3K
KGB
KGB
Andrew74
2023 FBG Stock Contest
2
Replies
98
Views
5K
KGB
KGB
KGB
Crypto vs stock market
Replies
10
Views
969
Dr. Octopus
Dr. Octopus

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 6 (members: 0, guests: 6)
Top