Stock Thread (4 Viewers)

[Sand]

Just a general thought/concern in regard to what Jerome Powell says. He‘s raising rates to attempt to attack demand and to bring inflation down. I was just thinking though—this process will eventually lead to layoffs—which will shrink the work force—which very well could reduce supply. He and a lot of the market experts claim that the biggest mistake they could make would be to stop raising rates too early and to allow inflation to sink back into the markets. My question is—wouldn’t raising them too much be far more catastrophic? If the fed raises them too much—supply will decrease along with demand—which isn‘t great for bringing prices down—and we’d have far more people unemployed—in a business environment where margins are compromised because of high rates. It honestly makes me feel like it would make it so that we kinda are where we are now—but just with a lot more people suffering economically. It really is starting to feel to me like the fed really needs to consider pausing a bit and seeing the effects of these rate increases as they sink in. I’m certainly not claiming they will do this—- but its starting to feel like them taking a slower and more surgical approach from this point forward is something that I would personally prefer to see.

Absolutely there is the fear or raising them too high. John Kennedy did an interpolation while interviewing Jerome and got to 10% unemployment to beat inflation down to 2%. Jerome didn't argue with the math, though said it was more complicated than that. What has to be remembered is that the Fed has one big dial to control this stuff and they have no choice but to turn it. If they would have started turning it while in their "transitory" denial phase this problem may never have existed.

Also, it's good to note that the Fed always overshoots. I expect they will here and the record inversion in the bond market says they have.

 

[Todem]

Just a general thought/concern in regard to what Jerome Powell says. He‘s raising rates to attempt to attack demand and to bring inflation down. I was just thinking though—this process will eventually lead to layoffs—which will shrink the work force—which very well could reduce supply. He and a lot of the market experts claim that the biggest mistake they could make would be to stop raising rates too early and to allow inflation to sink back into the markets. My question is—wouldn’t raising them too much be far more catastrophic? If the fed raises them too much—supply will decrease along with demand—which isn‘t great for bringing prices down—and we’d have far more people unemployed—in a business environment where margins are compromised because of high rates. It honestly makes me feel like it would make it so that we kinda are where we are now—but just with a lot more people suffering economically. It really is starting to feel to me like the fed really needs to consider pausing a bit and seeing the effects of these rate increases as they sink in. I’m certainly not claiming they will do this—- but its starting to feel like them taking a slower and more surgical approach from this point forward is something that I would personally prefer to see.

Not only was the market pricing this in in January, it was pricing in the Fed cutting rates late 2023.....I never ever agreed with this sentiment. Each increase the Fed has done in 2022 and the .25 they have done so far in 2023 takes anywhere from 4-6 months to work it’s way into the system.

I do agree on a pause. They went so far so fast. 40 years was the last time anything like this was even resembled by the Fed. They are in panic mode unfortunately and it disgusts me how politicized the Federal Reserve has become. The Capitol Hill Senate hearings were embarrassing.

So with all that said the effects of all these raises are going to be really felt here over the next 6-8 months. Housing is going and is in the process of coming to a halt in many area’s of the country (apparently not in my neck of the woods as my home increased another .5% in that last 30 days if you can believe that). Once that housing market screeches to a halt all the other dominos start falling into place as well. We are in a recession. Certain parts of the economy are in a true recession. Some areas are lagging.....like travel. And that’s because of the pent up demand Covid caused. But that too will flame out in due time when job losses start mounting more and there is no more easy money at all.

It is a cycle and it will play out.....second half to late 2024 will be a much better time moving forward as the pump get’s primed again. I fully expect by then the language of the Fed will be dovish and accommodation will start to take place to restart the economy they are trying to slam the brakes on.....they did not pump the brakes....they are in slamming the brakes mode.

Yield. Yield. Yield and value. That is the theme for the foreseeable future in my portfolios.

 

[Sand]

It is a cycle and it will play out.....second half to late 2024 will be a much better time moving forward as the pump get’s primed again.

So your timeline on recovery is moving out a shade? I know you talked about 2024 being when things settle down and now it's late 2024.

And, IMO, the Fed's target is too low right now. They should raise the target to 2.5-3% and that may do a ton to relieve pressure in the system right now.

 

[McBokonon]

Silvergate.........goodbye

$SIVB looking like it might be at the beginning of a meltdown, too. Not a crypto bank but lots of business with startup tech-like businesses. I traded them for a while during the euphoric period. Seemed solid at the time, but haven’t paid attention to them in a while. Doesn’t look too great for them!

I posted this on Wednesday night and today it’s officially under government control. Crazy how fast these things can happen.

 

[Capella]

Gonna just start hiding money in my mattress like my grandfather did.

 

[Sand]

Silvergate.........goodbye

$SIVB looking like it might be at the beginning of a meltdown, too. Not a crypto bank but lots of business with startup tech-like businesses. I traded them for a while during the euphoric period. Seemed solid at the time, but haven’t paid attention to them in a while. Doesn’t look too great for them!

I posted this on Wednesday night and today it’s officially under government control. Crazy how fast these things can happen.

The article below goes into a lot of it and it hinges on what interest rates have done to treasury prices causing a lot of unrealized losses. The article states that banks are losing money even at maturity (which makes no sense to me), but I can see paper losses causing a lot of red ink on paper. SIVB had a lot of UST, which made their problem the most acute. BAC also owns a bunch. It doesn't seem to me to be something that will spread like wildfire, as this isn't 2008 leveraged instruments, but US govt. backed bonds here. It should wash out of the system at maturity.

300 Billion Reasons Why SVB Contagion Is Spreading To The Broader Banking System | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Gonna just start hiding money in my mattress like my grandfather did.

Definitely make sure your cash/CDs are FDIC insured!

 

[Todem]

It is a cycle and it will play out.....second half to late 2024 will be a much better time moving forward as the pump get’s primed again.

So your timeline on recovery is moving out a shade? I know you talked about 2024 being when things settle down and now it's late 2024.

And, IMO, the Fed's target is too low right now. They should raise the target to 2.5-3% and that may do a ton to relieve pressure in the system right now.

Yeah things have changed. The data has changed. Inflation is proving to be sticky. I don’t see any easing on the overnight rates till late 2024. Higher for longer. And yes 2% inflation is a long long way away if ever again at a sustainable level. 2.5-3% is a lot more realistic. Hell in all my financial planning I use 3% as my baseline on inflation.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Just a general thought/concern in regard to what Jerome Powell says. He‘s raising rates to attempt to attack demand and to bring inflation down. I was just thinking though—this process will eventually lead to layoffs—which will shrink the work force—which very well could reduce supply. He and a lot of the market experts claim that the biggest mistake they could make would be to stop raising rates too early and to allow inflation to sink back into the markets. My question is—wouldn’t raising them too much be far more catastrophic? If the fed raises them too much—supply will decrease along with demand—which isn‘t great for bringing prices down—and we’d have far more people unemployed—in a business environment where margins are compromised because of high rates. It honestly makes me feel like it would make it so that we kinda are where we are now—but just with a lot more people suffering economically. It really is starting to feel to me like the fed really needs to consider pausing a bit and seeing the effects of these rate increases as they sink in. I’m certainly not claiming they will do this—- but its starting to feel like them taking a slower and more surgical approach from this point forward is something that I would personally prefer to see.

Not only is this a possibility. It's a NECESSITY.

There are only two possibilities here.

1) The fed is actually dumb enough to think we can have a soft landing and we will be doing this all over again (but 4x as bad) in another 3 years.

or

2) The fed knows that a hard landing is a necessity but is smart enough to know they're not allowed to say that part out loud.

I could write a book on why I feel this way but it would be so long no one would read it. So the TLDR version is basically that recession is not only a normal part of capitalism, it is an extremely necessary part of capitalism. The longer we delay a natural recession, the worse it will be when we finally have to let it happen. We've artificially delayed this one so many times now and are so stupidly overdue for a reset.

People that got labeled "permabears" like Michael Burry and the like weren't wrong in the end. They just underestimated just how far and long the fed would go to delay the recession, growing the bubble larger and larger all along the way.

 

[massraider]

So the TLDR version is basically that recession is not only a normal part of capitalism, it is an extremely necessary part of capitalism. The longer we delay a natural recession, the worse it will be when we finally have to let it happen. We've artificially delayed this one so many times now and are so stupidly overdue for a reset.

People that got labeled "permabears" like Michael Burry and the like weren't wrong in the end. They just underestimated just how far and long the fed would go to delay the recession, growing the bubble larger and larger all along the way.

Amen to this

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Just a general thought/concern in regard to what Jerome Powell says. He‘s raising rates to attempt to attack demand and to bring inflation down. I was just thinking though—this process will eventually lead to layoffs—which will shrink the work force—which very well could reduce supply. He and a lot of the market experts claim that the biggest mistake they could make would be to stop raising rates too early and to allow inflation to sink back into the markets. My question is—wouldn’t raising them too much be far more catastrophic? If the fed raises them too much—supply will decrease along with demand—which isn‘t great for bringing prices down—and we’d have far more people unemployed—in a business environment where margins are compromised because of high rates. It honestly makes me feel like it would make it so that we kinda are where we are now—but just with a lot more people suffering economically. It really is starting to feel to me like the fed really needs to consider pausing a bit and seeing the effects of these rate increases as they sink in. I’m certainly not claiming they will do this—- but its starting to feel like them taking a slower and more surgical approach from this point forward is something that I would personally prefer to see.

Absolutely there is the fear or raising them too high. John Kennedy did an interpolation while interviewing Jerome and got to 10% unemployment to beat inflation down to 2%. Jerome didn't argue with the math, though said it was more complicated than that. What has to be remembered is that the Fed has one big dial to control this stuff and they have no choice but to turn it. If they would have started turning it while in their "transitory" denial phase this problem may never have existed.

Also, it's good to note that the Fed always overshoots. I expect they will here and the record inversion in the bond market says they have.

It was 5 years too late by then anyway. I doubt it would have mattered.

2018 was when we crossed the event horizon. It was already years too late by then anyway but at least they were finally doing the right thing. When they rolled those hikes back almost immediately it was all over. Then you throw on March 2020 on top of that, without rate cuts as an available tool any longer and leading to unlimited QE, and it's no wonder we are where we are and 18 months of higher rates is not enough to fix it.

 

[culdeus]

DJIA took a faceplant late in the session and is casting a shadow on 31k. lol

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Just a general thought/concern in regard to what Jerome Powell says. He‘s raising rates to attempt to attack demand and to bring inflation down. I was just thinking though—this process will eventually lead to layoffs—which will shrink the work force—which very well could reduce supply. He and a lot of the market experts claim that the biggest mistake they could make would be to stop raising rates too early and to allow inflation to sink back into the markets. My question is—wouldn’t raising them too much be far more catastrophic? If the fed raises them too much—supply will decrease along with demand—which isn‘t great for bringing prices down—and we’d have far more people unemployed—in a business environment where margins are compromised because of high rates. It honestly makes me feel like it would make it so that we kinda are where we are now—but just with a lot more people suffering economically. It really is starting to feel to me like the fed really needs to consider pausing a bit and seeing the effects of these rate increases as they sink in. I’m certainly not claiming they will do this—- but its starting to feel like them taking a slower and more surgical approach from this point forward is something that I would personally prefer to see.

Not only is this a possibility. It's a NECESSITY.

There are only two possibilities here.

1) The fed is actually dumb enough to think we can have a soft landing and we will be doing this all over again (but 4x as bad) in another 3 years.

or

2) The fed knows that a hard landing is a necessity but is smart enough to know they're not allowed to say that part out loud.

I could write a book on why I feel this way but it would be so long no one would read it. So the TLDR version is basically that recession is not only a normal part of capitalism, it is an extremely necessary part of capitalism. The longer we delay a natural recession, the worse it will be when we finally have to let it happen. We've artificially delayed this one so many times now and are so stupidly overdue for a reset.

People that got labeled "permabears" like Michael Burry and the like weren't wrong in the end. They just underestimated just how far and long the fed would go to delay the recession, growing the bubble larger and larger all along the way.

I fully agree with you. I definitely am starting to feel like not only are we going to have a recession—but by ”necessity“—we are basically getting driven into one. With that said—(and I fully admit that I am prone to over analyzing and over-worrying about things)— I’m starting to feel like the economic situation ahead of us could be unlike any recession we’ve felt in our lifetime. I think the wealth gap has people already feeling disenfranchise. I think people are on edge and I remember recently hearing some stat that something like 60+% of our workers are living paycheck to paycheck. When the job market softens and layoffs really start to hit— I don’t see it being pretty at all. There is going to be a lot of suffering. I also worry about how the masses that are going to be suffering as a result are going to feel about the notion that their own government basically orchestrated this suffering. I really think that the troubling economic times that I see coming in the near to mid future might very well be coupled with some massive social unrest. You mix that in with an election where people are going to be emotionally charged—I could see a LOT of turbulence both economically and socially. Fingers crossed that I’m wrong and am just a victim of my over-worrying.

 

[Caveman33]

The fear and greed index is reading 21 (extreme fear). I'm out of the loop and have no hunch about CPI tomorrow but I think short term calls are +EV.

 

[Willy]

Guess I picked the wrong week to think I could ever retire.

 

[McBokonon]

My gambling itch is looking at buying some mega bank calls at some point.

 

[Capella]

Has the potential to get a little crazy today.

 

[McBokonon]

Has the potential to get a little crazy today.

At least we have CPI tomorrow to calm everything down.

 

[McBokonon]

So basically, all good for bank customers?

Schwab (not worried but just saying) has also been very rocky throughout all of this.

Schwab among the stocks already halted.

 

[Alien Fantasy]

Banks with massive unrealized losses need to fail. They gambled away depositor money (usually at massive leverage) and now are essentially worthless. Having the FDIC backstop for more than $250K/account is idiotic. The FDIC is already collecting way too little money to stop this bleeding when a few more banks fall (and they will).

And although unpopular, the FED absolutely needs to increase interest rates in March as well, because if you let inflation run now, this will be a worse issue later.

The free money train is over. Businesses that don't tighten up their operations are going to fail. Banks shouldn't receive special treatment.

and yes this means the stock market is likely 15-20% too high.

 

[Sand]

IEF up 3.5% in the last 2 days.

 

[Chadstroma]

Banks with massive unrealized losses need to fail. They gambled away depositor money (usually at massive leverage) and now are essentially worthless. Having the FDIC backstop for more than $250K/account is idiotic. The FDIC is already collecting way too little money to stop this bleeding when a few more banks fall (and they will).

And although unpopular, the FED absolutely needs to increase interest rates in March as well, because if you let inflation run now, this will be a worse issue later.

The free money train is over. Businesses that don't tighten up their operations are going to fail. Banks shouldn't receive special treatment.

and yes this means the stock market is likely 15-20% too high.

This is not about losses.

 

[Chadstroma]

A lot of good buys on the open of the market with larger regionals and people are buying. Even the hardest hit have rebounded. I have a good amount of exposure in the sector but was watching to see if there was an opportunity I could not pass up to buy. I am not seeing anything that makes sense for me but if you have no eggs in the financial basket, the large regionals and even big banks are options that might be a good buying opportunity right now with very little risk. The larger banks will benefit from this.

 

[Todem]

My gambling itch is looking at buying some mega bank calls at some point.

This is the first time I have looked at BAC in over 15 years. They are trading below book value. And they are one of the most well capitalized banks in the world.

The only bank I own is JPM. I may add BAC here....start nibbling here as this SVB stuff keeps unfolding.

 

[Todem]

Banks with massive unrealized losses need to fail. They gambled away depositor money (usually at massive leverage) and now are essentially worthless. Having the FDIC backstop for more than $250K/account is idiotic. The FDIC is already collecting way too little money to stop this bleeding when a few more banks fall (and they will).

And although unpopular, the FED absolutely needs to increase interest rates in March as well, because if you let inflation run now, this will be a worse issue later.

The free money train is over. Businesses that don't tighten up their operations are going to fail. Banks shouldn't receive special treatment.

and yes this means the stock market is likely 15-20% too high.

SVB’s failure has nothing to do with this.

They failed at a basic level with asset allocation and managing interest rate risk.

 

[NajehHejan]

The Schwab concerns appear to be overblown for now, however, who the heck knows. I have 3 IRA’s with TD Ameritrade (now Schwab), should I be running for the hills to move them?

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

The Schwab concerns appear to be overblown for now, however, who the heck knows. I have 3 IRA’s with TD Ameritrade (now Schwab), should I be running for the hills to move them?

Are you referring to the SVB specific concerns? If no, would you mind pointing me to any resources on the concern? I had no idea TDA was merging into Schwab and so had not paid any attention to it.

 

[NajehHejan]

The Schwab concerns appear to be overblown for now, however, who the heck knows. I have 3 IRA’s with TD Ameritrade (now Schwab), should I be running for the hills to move them?

Are you referring to the SVB specific concerns? If no, would you mind pointing me to any resources on the concern? I had no idea TDA was merging into Schwab and so had not paid any attention to it.

Yes specifically the SVB concerns. Someone lumped them into this mess and the stock dropped over 25% today before recovering to lose only around 12%. Schwab bought TDA around 2.5 years ago.

 

[Todem]

We bought BAC yesterday which is now trading below book value. It’s now down over 15% YTD.

Looking to flip this for a 30% trade inside 18 months. Gonna write out of the money calls on it as well once we get a nice rally.

I have not owned BAC since selling it in the 70’s back in 2006/2007.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

We bought BAC yesterday which is now trading below book value. It’s now down over 15% YTD.

Looking to flip this for a 30% trade inside 18 months. Gonna write out of the money calls on it as well once we get a nice rally.

I have not owned BAC since selling it in the 70’s back in 2006/2007.

Smart move. You got in at solid value, I think that a lot of people are still going to be moving assets into larger banks regardless of the government guaranteeing all deposits. In general—probably isn’t a bad idea to invest in decent banks that the market is sleeping on. The government basically just came out and de-risked life for a lot of banks in an economic climate that would otherwise be horribly challenging for them. It’s really starting to feel like that being a bank executive in the United States is the way to go. You can destroy the economy in the great housing crisis—with no punishment or ramifications. Now you can be as reckless as you want with the money of your depositors and the government will guarantee it. At the same time—the government is having their boy Powell going on every couple weeks announcing that there will be pain for everybody else that he and the government are purposely creating.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

The Schwab concerns appear to be overblown for now, however, who the heck knows. I have 3 IRA’s with TD Ameritrade (now Schwab), should I be running for the hills to move them?

Are you referring to the SVB specific concerns? If no, would you mind pointing me to any resources on the concern? I had no idea TDA was merging into Schwab and so had not paid any attention to it.

Yes specifically the SVB concerns. Someone lumped them into this mess and the stock dropped over 25% today before recovering to lose only around 12%. Schwab bought TDA around 2.5 years ago.

Lol, I've been on TDA, almost exclusively on the Thinkorswim platform, for a lot longer than that and I had no idea. The account was originally Scottrade that converted to TDA and i had seen references to Schwab. I should really pay more attention to these things. Thanks!

 

[Capella]

Missed the window today but anybody buying schw for a nice hold? Think I’m going in tomorrow.

 

[Desert_Power]

We bought BAC yesterday which is now trading below book value. It’s now down over 15% YTD.

Looking to flip this for a 30% trade inside 18 months. Gonna write out of the money calls on it as well once we get a nice rally.

I have not owned BAC since selling it in the 70’s back in 2006/2007.

Good call. Added a bit to my BAC position too

 

[humpback]

Bunch of European banks halted this morning.

 

[Monty Burns]

Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ futures all down close to 2% right now....

 

[SFBayDuck]

Being overweight energy in my Roth isn't going well today.....

Bought some PHYS today, picked up some GLD in another account a couple of weeks ago.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Being overweight energy in my Roth isn't going well today.....

Bought some PHYS today, picked up some GLD in another account a couple of weeks ago.

I don’t quite understand the huge drop in oil prices today. I understand them maybe dropping a bit—but a downward move this strong doesn’t seem to align with the market. There is still strong demand for oil, there is no real over abundance of supply, the China re-opening still isn’t at 100%—and as more and more of it re-opens—I’d expect them to be bigger buyers. Today just feels like a market that is struggling to digest the effects of a 1000 moving parts. You have geopolitical stuff with the American drone/Russian aircraft situation, you have China triggering a move to bring Saudi Arabia and Iran closer together, you still have the Ukraine/Russia situation, you still have the issue with what the FED is going to do with interest rates, you have the situation of SVB, signature bank, and now (although they have been a dumpster fire for a while) with credit Suisse. There are questions about if the fed that fanned the flames of inflation through policy that went too long for too far (the whole debacle with their transitory claims) has now created cracks in our banking system through their desire to over correct too much too quickly. Those are just a few issues—but I assure you there are hundreds or thousands more moving parts behind the scenes. Just seems like we might have a lot more weird days like this as the market tries to work it’s way through bringing some clarity to this clusterf**k of moving parts. I think the key is to make a list of potential long term portfolio adds and to act on them when this weird market allows for nice entry points.

 

[Redwes25]

Being overweight energy in my Roth isn't going well today.....

Bought some PHYS today, picked up some GLD in another account a couple of weeks ago.

I don’t quite understand the huge drop in oil prices today. I understand them maybe dropping a bit—but a downward move this strong doesn’t seem to align with the market. There is still strong demand for oil, there is no real over abundance of supply, the China re-opening still isn’t at 100%—and as more and more of it re-opens—I’d expect them to be bigger buyers. Today just feels like a market that is struggling to digest the effects of a 1000 moving parts. You have geopolitical stuff with the American drone/Russian aircraft situation, you have China triggering a move to bring Saudi Arabia and Iran closer together, you still have the Ukraine/Russia situation, you still have the issue with what the FED is going to do with interest rates, you have the situation of SVB, signature bank, and now (although they have been a dumpster fire for a while) with credit Suisse. There are questions about if the fed that fanned the flames of inflation through policy that went too long for too far (the whole debacle with their transitory claims) has now created cracks in our banking system through their desire to over correct too much too quickly. Those are just a few issues—but I assure you there are hundreds or thousands more moving parts behind the scenes. Just seems like we might have a lot more weird days like this as the market tries to work it’s way through bringing some clarity to this clusterf**k of moving parts. I think the key is to make a list of potential long term portfolio adds and to act on them when this weird market allows for nice entry points.

Energy is a risk off trade and a flight to safety (e.g treasuries). This actually helps banks holding un realized losses given strong move in treasuries lowering rates and therefore increasing prices.

Look at 5 day chart of 10 year yield - https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

 

[stbugs]

Being overweight energy in my Roth isn't going well today.....

Bought some PHYS today, picked up some GLD in another account a couple of weeks ago.

I don’t quite understand the huge drop in oil prices today. I understand them maybe dropping a bit—but a downward move this strong doesn’t seem to align with the market. There is still strong demand for oil, there is no real over abundance of supply, the China re-opening still isn’t at 100%—and as more and more of it re-opens—I’d expect them to be bigger buyers. Today just feels like a market that is struggling to digest the effects of a 1000 moving parts. You have geopolitical stuff with the American drone/Russian aircraft situation, you have China triggering a move to bring Saudi Arabia and Iran closer together, you still have the Ukraine/Russia situation, you still have the issue with what the FED is going to do with interest rates, you have the situation of SVB, signature bank, and now (although they have been a dumpster fire for a while) with credit Suisse. There are questions about if the fed that fanned the flames of inflation through policy that went too long for too far (the whole debacle with their transitory claims) has now created cracks in our banking system through their desire to over correct too much too quickly. Those are just a few issues—but I assure you there are hundreds or thousands more moving parts behind the scenes. Just seems like we might have a lot more weird days like this as the market tries to work it’s way through bringing some clarity to this clusterf**k of moving parts. I think the key is to make a list of potential long term portfolio adds and to act on them when this weird market allows for nice entry points.

Energy is a risk off trade and a flight to safety (e.g treasuries). This actually helps banks holding un realized losses given strong move in treasuries lowering rates and therefore increasing prices.

Look at 5 day chart of 10 year yield - https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

Not just outside forces moving energy stocks down, inventory is increasing as demand wanes plus Biden approved that Alaska drilling.

Oil prices crater as inventories build, fears ripple through global markets

Oil prices have fallen sharply in recent days amid growing inventories and broad stresses following the failure of multiple U.S. banks.

finance.yahoo.com

Kind of surprising the inventories when you look at the 2015-2019 levels.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Think it's as simple as the market thinking inflation is yesterday's news and the recession is right around the corner. Trade for that.....gold up, yields down, oil tanking.

 

[Alien Fantasy]

We bought BAC yesterday which is now trading below book value. It’s now down over 15% YTD.

Looking to flip this for a 30% trade inside 18 months. Gonna write out of the money calls on it as well once we get a nice rally.

I have not owned BAC since selling it in the 70’s back in 2006/2007.

Bank of America is backstopping Citadel's $65B securities sold yet purchased. I feel if the damn breaks with American banks, they are as likely as any to become worthless. BAC is sitting on a lot of unrealized losses. And the Credit Suisse situation is likely to get much worse soon as no one wants to hold the Archegos mess that they inherited. When Credit Suisse falls, every bank is going to feel it.

 

[Todem]

We bought BAC yesterday which is now trading below book value. It’s now down over 15% YTD.

Looking to flip this for a 30% trade inside 18 months. Gonna write out of the money calls on it as well once we get a nice rally.

I have not owned BAC since selling it in the 70’s back in 2006/2007.

Bank of America is backstopping Citadel's $65B securities sold yet purchased. I feel if the damn breaks with American banks, they are as likely as any to become worthless. BAC is sitting on a lot of unrealized losses. And the Credit Suisse situation is likely to get much worse soon as no one wants to hold the Archegos mess that they inherited. When Credit Suisse falls, every bank is going to feel it.

Welp I guess armageddon is coming.

 

[Alien Fantasy]

We bought BAC yesterday which is now trading below book value. It’s now down over 15% YTD.

Looking to flip this for a 30% trade inside 18 months. Gonna write out of the money calls on it as well once we get a nice rally.

I have not owned BAC since selling it in the 70’s back in 2006/2007.

Bank of America is backstopping Citadel's $65B securities sold yet purchased. I feel if the damn breaks with American banks, they are as likely as any to become worthless. BAC is sitting on a lot of unrealized losses. And the Credit Suisse situation is likely to get much worse soon as no one wants to hold the Archegos mess that they inherited. When Credit Suisse falls, every bank is going to feel it.

Welp I guess armageddon is coming.

Check out 's stock price (CSCD5) in real time

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Lehman blew up around 640. Credit Suisse's CDS is trading at 983 as I post this. Armageddon might be closer than we all realize, unfortunately.

 

[Desert_Power]

Adding a lot of TLT right now with 10 year at 4%. And VCIT

That's an interesting choice. Why buy the very long end right now?

Inflation has peaked and rates will likely head down this year, especially if we have a recession which I believe we will. I like bonds more than stocks right now.

I highly doubt rates head down this year…..think second half of 2024 for that to start happening. Best case is 1st quarter 2024 we start seeing a return to a more accommodative interest rate environment.

Higher for longer. They are not even done yet. IMO two more .25 increases are coming.

I am talking long term rates, not short term.

Good call here. I also felt we were approaching a peak in intermediate/long rates but rates never got high enough for me to buy something in the longer term treasury space.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I know we have some DWAC traders in here...

Trump’s Media Company Reportedly Under Federal Investigation For Money Laundering Linked To Russia

 

[Todem]

Adding a lot of TLT right now with 10 year at 4%. And VCIT

That's an interesting choice. Why buy the very long end right now?

Inflation has peaked and rates will likely head down this year, especially if we have a recession which I believe we will. I like bonds more than stocks right now.

I highly doubt rates head down this year…..think second half of 2024 for that to start happening. Best case is 1st quarter 2024 we start seeing a return to a more accommodative interest rate environment.

Higher for longer. They are not even done yet. IMO two more .25 increases are coming.

I am talking long term rates, not short term.

Good call here. I also felt we were approaching a peak in intermediate/long rates but rates never got high enough for me to buy something in the longer term treasury space.

Yep we are firmly inverted.

 

[ghostguy123]

Adding a lot of TLT right now with 10 year at 4%. And VCIT

That's an interesting choice. Why buy the very long end right now?

Inflation has peaked and rates will likely head down this year, especially if we have a recession which I believe we will. I like bonds more than stocks right now.

I highly doubt rates head down this year…..think second half of 2024 for that to start happening. Best case is 1st quarter 2024 we start seeing a return to a more accommodative interest rate environment.

Higher for longer. They are not even done yet. IMO two more .25 increases are coming.

I am talking long term rates, not short term.

Good call here. I also felt we were approaching a peak in intermediate/long rates but rates never got high enough for me to buy something in the longer term treasury space.

Yep we are firmly inverted.

So what does this mean? Buy buy buy?

 

[General Malaise]

Awfully quiet in here today.....big moves in tech. More please.

 

[fruity pebbles]

couple more blow ups and we should be at all time highs

 

[Capella]

Awfully quiet in here today.....big moves in tech. More please.

Days like today are amazing but it always seems like after days like these, Powell comes out the next week and says something like well actually we need to raise rates another 8% this year and then we get crushed. So, I can’t get too excited except for the stocks I’m flipping.

 

[Sand]

Awfully quiet in here today.....big moves in tech. More please.

We'll crab walk back down soon enough.