Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

[kevzilla]

The numbers next to AMZN are green. What means this?

It’s up more than 60% this year.

Upon review, I expressed myself inartfully. What I meant to say was the numbers were green all the way across, for the first time in two years. After being underwater for that long, it felt good to get a gulp of fresh air before the market rolled over into the close.

 

[Capella]

Hello, Schwab

 

[The Commish]

Bought more Disney today because I’m a sucker but also because I guess it’s a pretty good value to me at this price.

Lot of people discussing Apple buying them out, which I’m sure will never happen but still interesting to think about.

I'm a big Disney guy and own a bunch but I'm a little worried about their next few earnings reports. I manage vacation rental properties in the area and this summer underperformed most people's expectations in lodging revenue. Could of course just mean more people staying on property at Disney (not to mention oversaturation in the Airbnb market) but I'm also in a lot of Disney groups where people were posting photos of how unusually uncrowded the parks were and how surprisingly short a lot of the ride waits were compared to a typical July (which despite the heat is usually the #1 or #2 most popular month for Disney).

To be fair July was sweltering but it's Florida in July so it's not like it's ever cool. I did see a lot of people posting that the waterparks were packed so maybe more people were just audibling to there due to the heat. And also to be fair the spring break revenue for my properties was the highest ever by a lot, so maybe people just visited earlier in the year this year.

Just something to chew on, but I'll be buying some more as well as I love the company long-term.

State resident passes are down a good bit too. The whole thing for us to buy a pass was that we could just wake up and go if we wanted. Now, can't do that, though they are supposed to be changing that. So, I go look at the cost for passes and I think about all the other stuff we could do instead. I think they've hit the price people are willing to pay. Not worth the hassle to a lot of us anymore.

 

[Capella]

The whole thing for us to buy a pass was that we could just wake up and go if we wanted. Now, can't do that, though they are supposed to be changing that

I think that’s changed. We did just that last Saturday.

 

[The Commish]

The whole thing for us to buy a pass was that we could just wake up and go if we wanted. Now, can't do that, though they are supposed to be changing that

I think that’s changed. We did just that last Saturday.

sweet....a little progress

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

A 5% spike in MSFT is always appreciate. Some AI news, it appears?

 

[ericttspikes]

Bought more Disney today because I’m a sucker but also because I guess it’s a pretty good value to me at this price.

Lot of people discussing Apple buying them out, which I’m sure will never happen but still interesting to think about.

I'm a big Disney guy and own a bunch but I'm a little worried about their next few earnings reports. I manage vacation rental properties in the area and this summer underperformed most people's expectations in lodging revenue. Could of course just mean more people staying on property at Disney (not to mention oversaturation in the Airbnb market) but I'm also in a lot of Disney groups where people were posting photos of how unusually uncrowded the parks were and how surprisingly short a lot of the ride waits were compared to a typical July (which despite the heat is usually the #1 or #2 most popular month for Disney).

To be fair July was sweltering but it's Florida in July so it's not like it's ever cool. I did see a lot of people posting that the waterparks were packed so maybe more people were just audibling to there due to the heat. And also to be fair the spring break revenue for my properties was the highest ever by a lot, so maybe people just visited earlier in the year this year.

Just something to chew on, but I'll be buying some more as well as I love the company long-term.

I'm a Disney fan and unfortunately a shareholder as well. Seems like Bob Chapek's short run at CEO was a disaster. Not sure how many of the changes during his tenure were his fault, but a lot of mistakes were made IMO.

We went a lot more when our kids were younger, but Disney had built a great mousetrap where they offered little "perks" that made you feel like you were getting a good deal even though everything cost a lot. It was a neat trick.

Perks like the "Disney Magical Express" that they got rid of was actually a huge selling point for us out-of-towners with little kids and a ton of luggage. I really enjoyed getting on the plane and then not having to worry about transportation or my baggage for the entire vacation. Not sure how much they saved by axing that, but it was just a bus playing commercials the whole time. Not exactly luxurious, but loved not having to deal with renting a car or getting an Uber, and the luggage appeared in our room. My vacation would start right when I sat down on the plane and started drinking.

On top of saving a ton of hassle and making guests feel like they were getting a perk, it was good business. They captured their guests willing to fork over $ to stay on premises right at the airport. The PR about cancelling the service spun it as giving guests "freedom" of transportation choices. Ummm, that is the dumbest thing I ever heard. It also gave them freedom to explore paying less for an AirBnB, or worse, stay at Universal. Once you stay off premises you realize you're saving a ton of cash on everything, then you wonder why should I go to a Disney park at all when I can go to Universal for less? They broke the mousetrap. So shortsighted. I heard they charge for magic bands too now. Another little perk that made it feel ok paying out the nose for the Disney experience. I'm sure nickel and diming people seems like good business, but it's really not.

We went down to Orlando for a mandatory volleyball tournament this year and didn't even consider going to Disney. My thinking was if I'm renting a car, I might as well just get a cheap hotel and go to Universal for way less. I'm sure a lot of other people are doing the same, which sucks.

 

[Capella]

Get rid of the magical express was a truly mind-boggling decision. They already had the busses! What cost was being cut there? Some gas and $12 an hour wages? And like errictspikes said it was just one big commercial for Disney. Probably sold future movie tickets or toys based off what people saw on every bus ride.

 

[Capella]

How much more room does Meta have to run? This is maybe my biggest winner ever but I’m getting leery of it.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Bought more Disney today because I’m a sucker but also because I guess it’s a pretty good value to me at this price.

Lot of people discussing Apple buying them out, which I’m sure will never happen but still interesting to think about.

I'm a big Disney guy and own a bunch but I'm a little worried about their next few earnings reports. I manage vacation rental properties in the area and this summer underperformed most people's expectations in lodging revenue. Could of course just mean more people staying on property at Disney (not to mention oversaturation in the Airbnb market) but I'm also in a lot of Disney groups where people were posting photos of how unusually uncrowded the parks were and how surprisingly short a lot of the ride waits were compared to a typical July (which despite the heat is usually the #1 or #2 most popular month for Disney).

To be fair July was sweltering but it's Florida in July so it's not like it's ever cool. I did see a lot of people posting that the waterparks were packed so maybe more people were just audibling to there due to the heat. And also to be fair the spring break revenue for my properties was the highest ever by a lot, so maybe people just visited earlier in the year this year.

Just something to chew on, but I'll be buying some more as well as I love the company long-term.

I'm a Disney fan and unfortunately a shareholder as well. Seems like Bob Chapek's short run at CEO was a disaster. Not sure how many of the changes during his tenure were his fault, but a lot of mistakes were made IMO.

We went a lot more when our kids were younger, but Disney had built a great mousetrap where they offered little "perks" that made you feel like you were getting a good deal even though everything cost a lot. It was a neat trick.

Perks like the "Disney Magical Express" that they got rid of was actually a huge selling point for us out-of-towners with little kids and a ton of luggage. I really enjoyed getting on the plane and then not having to worry about transportation or my baggage for the entire vacation. Not sure how much they saved by axing that, but it was just a bus playing commercials the whole time. Not exactly luxurious, but loved not having to deal with renting a car or getting an Uber, and the luggage appeared in our room. My vacation would start right when I sat down on the plane and started drinking.

On top of saving a ton of hassle and making guests feel like they were getting a perk, it was good business. They captured their guests willing to fork over $ to stay on premises right at the airport. The PR about cancelling the service spun it as giving guests "freedom" of transportation choices. Ummm, that is the dumbest thing I ever heard. It also gave them freedom to explore paying less for an AirBnB, or worse, stay at Universal. Once you stay off premises you realize you're saving a ton of cash on everything, then you wonder why should I go to a Disney park at all when I can go to Universal for less? They broke the mousetrap. So shortsighted. I heard they charge for magic bands too now. Another little perk that made it feel ok paying out the nose for the Disney experience. I'm sure nickel and diming people seems like good business, but it's really not.

We went down to Orlando for a mandatory volleyball tournament this year and didn't even consider going to Disney. My thinking was if I'm renting a car, I might as well just get a cheap hotel and go to Universal for way less. I'm sure a lot of other people are doing the same, which sucks.

Unless you're talking about lodging costs, we did both Disney and Universal on our last trip and didn't find the actual parks at Universal to be any cheaper at all. We were actually pretty surprised at how expensive Universal was because we had this idea in our head that it would be cheaper, but it really wasn't.

With Universal you're also really limited to going on low crowd days because their Express pass, while simpler and better than Disney's Genie+, may be the most absurdly priced thing in the history of humanity. You're talking anywhere from $150 (only on zero crowd days where you don't need it) up to $400 per person ON TOP of the ticket price, for a single day. So on a medium crowd day you're looking at around $350 per ticket w/ express pass, and on a high crowd day upwards of $600 per ticket, for a single day. Whereas the absolutely peak for Disney tickets even w/ all the upgrades (genie plus and a lightning lane plus) you're talking around $260 per person, again on a peak day with all the upgrades. Genie+ doesn't get you as many benefits as Universal's express pass, but Universal doesn't really have an option for something moderately priced that helps with the wait times. You're either paying the most stupid amount of money imaginable, or you're waiting in every line like a peon.

Magic bands are completely optional and you can do Disney the same way as Universal (either with the mobile app or a physical card) for free, so no real difference there.

I think the reality is that travel to the parks is just normalizing after a boom coming out of covid. The last 18 months or so have been pretty nuts as they've raised prices time after time to levels they probably thought were 20 years away and STILL had to implement park reservations because their biggest problem, even with hugely inflated ticket prices, as that there were TOO MANY tickets being sold and the parks were too crowded.

But as with many things coming out of covid businesses are slow to give up their covid pricing gains, and it will probably take a few quarters of underperformance at the parks before they start actually cutting prices, and cutting prices also isn't going to align with investor expectations which got used to being able to fill the parks at inflated prices and weren't expecting that to go away.

And of course the most worrying thing is that most of their other businesses (movies, cruises, streaming, ESPN, etc) have been struggling and it's been the old reliable, invicible parks and their money printing that's made it all something people could just shrug off. But if that core part of the business has to start slashing prices that could be problematic.

 

[guru_007]

I was going to make a long post about DIS this past weekend. Who knows maybe I'll be inspired as I was going to spotlight two stocks.
Long and the short of it is I like DIS and will be seeking an entry point, but no way would I recommend getting into this stock anytime soon. Earnings may be bad. The screenwriter/actors strike is going to be bad. Pretty sure guidance is going to be bad.
But, there are a number of drivers that can push this stock a good 20-30% higher, imo. I'm going to wait until after earnings because I think this thing goes lower still.

 

[Capella]

Netflix with 4M more subscribers than expected and down 4% lol

 

[stbugs]

Netflix with 4M more subscribers than expected and down 4% lol

It’s up 60% or so this year. I think there were built in assumptions that were expecting more. Most times those estimates have been set for a while. Most of these analyst raise targets after stocks have blown by or lower targets after the damage has already happened.

Also, subscriber data for Netflix varies a lot. After the password sharing shutdown and adding lower ad-free options, it’s not surprising that they beat numbers but those additional subscriber rates are not likely to continue.

 

[stbugs]

GS missed top and bottom line estimates and it was up 1% today. Most tech stocks we know would have gotten crushed missing revenue and earning estimates.

Tesla missed the gross margin number by a good chunk in a that everyone was watching closely and it’s up now. They did barely beat revenue and earnings but the stock has also gone up so much that you’d think the results were a bit meh considering the jump this year.

 

[stbugs]

Oh, also on NFLX, they missed revenue for Q2, despite the subscriber growth, and they guided down revenue for Q3. Their revenue growth over last year was around 3%. The subscriber numbers seem nice but the other numbers are really rough.

 

[Sand]

GS missed top and bottom line estimates and it was up 1% today. Most tech stocks we know would have gotten crushed missing revenue and earning estimates.

They played The Imperial March during the earnings call and folks were too scared to see because... you know.

 

[Capella]

Netflix with 4M more subscribers than expected and down 4% lol

It’s up 60% or so this year. I think there were built in assumptions that were expecting more. Most times those estimates have been set for a while. Most of these analyst raise targets after stocks have blown by or lower targets after the damage has already happened.

Also, subscriber data for Netflix varies a lot. After the password sharing shutdown and adding lower ad-free options, it’s not surprising that they beat numbers but those additional subscriber rates are not likely to continue.

I think I’m buying more for a little 15% turnabout. Not a lot to dislike here imo.

 

[Judge Smails]

Gonna put more to work. Todem list? Sand recommendations?

 

[Sand]

Gonna put more to work. Todem list? Sand recommendations?

Right now boring stuff. Investment grade corporate bonds. CDs. Blue chips like JNJ, DE, MSFT.

Big fan of setting up a bond ladder right now. I think we're somewhere close to the top of the rate cycle, so bond interest is really good right now.

 

[Sand]

DFS, wait!

 

[McBokonon]

DFS, wait!

DFS and Cap1 are not where you want to be if there’s going to be increased delinquencies.

AMEX has also focused more on younger consumers (the kind with student loans) than they used to, so I wonder if they’ll get hit a bit more than expected.

 

[Sand]

DFS, wait!

DFS and Cap1 are not where you want to be if there’s going to be increased delinquencies.

AMEX has also focused more on younger consumers (the kind with student loans) than they used to, so I wonder if they’ll get hit a bit more than expected.

Their earnings report was actually very good - 20% YoY increase in revenue. The issue was some regulatory notices about classification of their products. I didn't quite get the issue, but evidently the market really didn't like that news.

 

[Capella]

I wonder if tech stocks not living up to their pre-earnings hype will be a theme the next two weeks.

 

[General Malaise]

well this day sucked donkey doodooo.

 

[Todem]

Gonna put more to work. Todem list? Sand recommendations?

Sit tight…..nothing wrong with some dry powder at the moment. It’s paying 4.75% in high yielding FDIC money markets.

I will post here when I see opportunities and entry points.

 

[Bogart]

DWAC agrees to pay $18 million fine to the SEC for breaking the rules. Up 60% 66% 88% on the day in early trading. Go figure.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

DWAC agrees to pay $18 million fine to the SEC for breaking the rules. Up 60% 66% 88% on the day in early trading. Go figure.

I guess people were expecting a larger fine?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Pretty weak bounce today after such a big down day yesterday in tech. I guess the market is holding out for more earnings to see if these missed earnings are more pervasive. SNAP earnings next Tuesday I guess then we'll have an idea which way the whole market is going.

 

[stbugs]

Pretty weak bounce today after such a big down day yesterday in tech. I guess the market is holding out for more earnings to see if these missed earnings are more pervasive. SNAP earnings next Tuesday I guess then we'll have an idea which way the whole market is going.

Oh ****, not SNAP.

 

[Todem]

Pretty weak bounce today after such a big down day yesterday in tech. I guess the market is holding out for more earnings to see if these missed earnings are more pervasive. SNAP earnings next Tuesday I guess then we'll have an idea which way the whole market is going.

Earnings are now going to be the drivers for any further rally.

This week was encouraging as far as a more broad based rally. The S&P has been driven primarily by 7-15 stocks this year.

This is not what a bull market rally
Looks like.

 

[Capella]

SNAP earnings next Tuesday I guess then we'll have an idea which way the whole market is going.

Uhhh I can tell you which way snap will be sending us. GD I hate that stock.

 

[Bogart]

DWAC agrees to pay $18 million fine to the SEC for breaking the rules. Up 60% 66% 88% on the day in early trading. Go figure.

I guess people were expecting a larger fine?

Paying the fine is a hurdle past to finalizing the merger with TMTG, which I still think is much more doubtful than the shareholders feel. And then even if the merger does happen by a miracle, there is not a profitable product to keep the company afloat.

 

[Nugget]

I’m pulling an Lhucks and moving some money from stocks to treasuries.

 

[Sand]

Pretty weak bounce today after such a big down day yesterday in tech. I guess the market is holding out for more earnings to see if these missed earnings are more pervasive. SNAP earnings next Tuesday I guess then we'll have an idea which way the whole market is going.

Earnings are now going to be the drivers for any further rally.

This week was encouraging as far as a more broad based rally. The S&P has been driven primarily by 7-15 stocks this year.

This is not what a bull market rally
Looks like.

So you think we're off the inflation trade? I still see inflation expectations driving both markets pretty hard.

 

[Dezbelief]

Someone is recommending HBAR to me

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

AMC up 69% AH. Markets are back to normal.

(The whole weird APE to AMC share conversion was rejected by a judge)

 

[Todem]

Pretty weak bounce today after such a big down day yesterday in tech. I guess the market is holding out for more earnings to see if these missed earnings are more pervasive. SNAP earnings next Tuesday I guess then we'll have an idea which way the whole market is going.

Earnings are now going to be the drivers for any further rally.

This week was encouraging as far as a more broad based rally. The S&P has been driven primarily by 7-15 stocks this year.

This is not what a bull market rally
Looks like.

So you think we're off the inflation trade? I still see inflation expectations driving both markets pretty hard.

The tech stocks were beaten down so bad last year......they had nowhere to go except up. Staples, utilities, energy, consumer discretionary, telecom, materials, and some industrials, railroads, healthcare, pharma (except LLY)......doing nada this year. Literally.

So I am seeing some value forming as the tech rally keeps raging on and again...pricing for perfection. Too many high high multiples again in that space. I don’t mind paying up for growth.....but some of these are ridiculous.

I am not complaining. We are up low double digits (10-12% percent) on most models and some models are only up 6-8%. But this is not the kind of broad based bull market rally I would normally be excited about.

I can see and feel complanceny setting in...all this now all of a sudden “soft landing” talk taking hold and all of a sudden the "Fed is gonna pull it off” (soft landing) talk dominating. And the new bubble......wait for it.....A.I. just...ugh come on. People are chasing now.

I am cautiously optimistic short term. I do think a modest 5-7% pull back is gonna happen at some point this year.....and I would not be shocked with it going as high as 10%.

I think interest rates stay higher for longer......I have expectations 3rd to 4th quarter of 2024 is when we will see the first dovish signs of the Fed reversing course and begin modest cutting to ignite the economy again. Because at some point......it will stall and in certain sectors it is stalling.

Election year coming up.....always fun.

So we are positioned well for volatility.....remember we added more fixed income 4th quarter last year than I have had in over a decade. While it has not moved a lot this year.....it is has crept up and is paying great yield and will be a nice stabilizing part of the portfolio when/if we get that eventual selloff before another bull market starts second half of 2024 by my estimation.

Being diversified is critical. And there will be some buying opportunities at some point to shift a little out of fixed income and cash to take advantage of disconnected stocks that are fundamentally sound but on sale and great for the long term.

But yeah......I am not enamored with this rally we have had in 2023......I am happy we have started the recovery from 2022.....but I want to see that broad based "risk on" rally in many other sectors take hold to know.....the green chutes of a bull market are going again before I rebalance again to a more equity slant.

The economy has been resilient though.....and I think the post covid travel pop is helped a lot in terms of consumer spending.....but that will tighten up after this summer IMO. Hey I could be wrong......and that’s why we stay diversified. So we participate.

 

[Todem]

AMC up 69% AH. Markets are back to normal.

(The whole weird APE to AMC share conversion was rejected by a judge)

Insanity......LOL.

 

[Sand]

The economy has been resilient though.....and I think the post covid travel pop is helped a lot in terms of consumer spending.....but that will tighten up after this summer IMO. Hey I could be wrong......and that’s why we stay diversified. So we participate.

Yeah - the increase in rates has really allowed me to diversify into bond issues and CDs that I'll hold until maturity. Very happy with that and getting away from all bond funds.

Most importantly as far as the direction of markets - I hit my financial goal number on Jan 1. 2022, only to be drubbed (with everyone else) right after. I was there for a week - sheesh. Sorry, my fault, guys. I am currently 1% away from getting over the line again. So when we immediately get shellacked that's just the market making sure I stay humble... again. 99.98% certainty of this happening, because the market is a vindictive *****.

 

[Todem]

The economy has been resilient though.....and I think the post covid travel pop is helped a lot in terms of consumer spending.....but that will tighten up after this summer IMO. Hey I could be wrong......and that’s why we stay diversified. So we participate.

Yeah - the increase in rates has really allowed me to diversify into bond issues and CDs that I'll hold until maturity. Very happy with that and getting away from all bond funds.

Most importantly as far as the direction of markets - I hit my financial goal number on Jan 1. 2022, only to be drubbed (with everyone else) right after. I was there for a week - sheesh. Sorry, my fault, guys. I am currently 1% away from getting over the line again. So when we immediately get shellacked that's just the market making sure I stay humble... again. 99.98% certainty of this happening, because the market is a vindictive *****.

Ok Sand......you are officially one of my “tells” moving forward!!

Just kidding. You will get back to that number by end of next year....I am quite confident of that. The kind of shellacking we took in 2022 typically takes 18-24 to fully recover and even go higher from......only 5 times in the history of the market have we seen that kind of blood shed in both the equity and fixed income market dropping like a rock at the same time.

 

[Sand]

You will get back to that number by end of next year....I am quite confident of that. The kind of shellacking we took in 2022 typically takes 18-24 to fully recover and even go higher from......only 5 times in the history of the market have we seen that kind of blood shed in both the equity and fixed income market dropping like a rock at the same time.

The market has noted your hubris. Your accounts are duly marked for destruction.

 

[identikit]

Bought some MP on Friday, still have enough dry powder to buy more. I only lost $17 in it on Friday, lol.

I'm in for a bit

 

[Capella]

RIP Hgen

 

[Todem]

RTX

Buy buy buy…..at the very minimum take a half position and see how it reacts to any downgrades tomorrow.

Great long term play here. Take advantage.

 

[SFBayDuck]

RIP Hgen

Down 73% today doesn't move the needle much when you're already down 99%. Think this will be my first to go to zero.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

TTCF and HGEN in the same month.

Memories...

 

[ghostguy123]

RTX

Buy buy buy…..at the very minimum take a half position and see how it reacts to any downgrades tomorrow.

Great long term play here. Take advantage.

Why's it down so much today?

 

[Sand]

RTX

Buy buy buy…..at the very minimum take a half position and see how it reacts to any downgrades tomorrow.

Great long term play here. Take advantage.

Why's it down so much today?

Some passenger jet engines have some materials issues requiring inspection and maybe revision. RTX took a 500M charge against the issue.

 

[Capella]

RIP Hgen

Down 73% today doesn't move the needle much when you're already down 99%. Think this will be my first to go to zero.

Yea I thought about selling what I had this morning but then figured I’ve come this far so may as well see it through.

 

[stbugs]

RIP Hgen

Down 73% today doesn't move the needle much when you're already down 99%. Think this will be my first to go to zero.

Yea I thought about selling what I had this morning but then figured I’ve come this far so may as well see it through.

Damn, guess Whyatt’s bet with the crazy old cooter is officially done. CYDY for the win at 40x the market cap now.