Stock Thread (42 Viewers)

[The Z Machine]

Options seems like a good way to make and lose a lot of money. Like playing craps.

 

[NajehHejan]

Options seems like a good way to make and lose a lot of money. Like playing craps.

I'm getting better at it. You have to choose good companies that have just been beaten down. Or companies you believe in to turn things around. For example, I am taking a beating on my WW options. I should have known better. I won't bet on companies anymore where they actually have a chance to go to $0. I'm doing pretty well on my other calls. But after WW I bought ABUS and SOFI options and are doing well on them. I usually like going out 1 year but the UNH 1 year's were so expensive, so I went with 90 days.

 

[Sand]

Anyone have a recommendation of a free resource to view historic options prices? I can't seem to find this on schwab, and google is only netting me pay services.

I'd like to be able to look at a specific option chain and find out the daily range (or even daily close price) for a range period of say last three months.

I have never seen such a thing. It may not exist.

I'm sure it's available on a Bloomberg terminal. No worries - that's pocket change for an FFAer.

 

[The Z Machine]

btw, I like to play craps. My go to for casinos if I'm nor watching a game in the book.

 

[pecorino]

Bought 1 call UNH 8/15/25 320.00 @ 23.55

Sell order in at 35.35 (+50%)

Not a fan of this trade though, of course, I hope it works out for you. This is more than 10% out of the money with a fairly rich premium. Three months is a long time so you're paying for that duration. I just think these headwinds are going to take a lot longer to get a kind of bounce-back that makes this a break-even trade (which is at $343 per share or a 20% gain in 3 months.) Some kind of acquittal from the Feds, though, should do you well.

 

[NajehHejan]

Bought 1 call UNH 8/15/25 320.00 @ 23.55

Sell order in at 35.35 (+50%)

Not a fan of this trade though, of course, I hope it works out for you. This is more than 10% out of the money with a fairly rich premium. Three months is a long time so you're paying for that duration. I just think these headwinds are going to take a lot longer to get a kind of bounce-back that makes this a break-even trade (which is at $343 per share or a 20% gain in 3 months.) Some kind of acquittal from the Feds, though, should do you well.

Yes, I hear you, I think what I'm mostly hoping for is a pretty short term spike after the recent bounces off the 200 day moving average. I'm really hoping to be out of it within the month. Maybe selling at +50% is too aggressive. I'm up 5.5% so far but may look to unload at 25% instead. Appreciate your insight!

 

[Desert_Power]

Anyone have a recommendation of a free resource to view historic options prices? I can't seem to find this on schwab, and google is only netting me pay services.

I'd like to be able to look at a specific option chain and find out the daily range (or even daily close price) for a range period of say last three months.

I have never seen such a thing. It may not exist.

I'm sure it's available on a Bloomberg terminal. No worries - that's pocket change for an FFAer.

Best thing about my job is that I've been able to take over the "shared" Bloomberg terminal that my team uses.

 

[Redwes25]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

 

[BassNBrew]

401K account now up over 25% on the year. The Tariff Tantrum is shaping up to be a life changing event.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

401K account now up over 25% on the year. The Tariff Tantrum is shaping up to be a life changing event.

Are you able to buy/sell individual stocks in your 401K?

 

[BassNBrew]

401K account now up over 25% on the year. The Tariff Tantrum is shaping up to be a life changing event.

Are you able to buy/sell individual stocks in your 401K?

Yes, rollover. Conservatively aggressive. 50 positions, only Amazon, Nvidia, and AMD over 5%. Probably 50% of Todem's master list with a heavy tech lean. No bonds, mimial foreign exposure. It's either cash waiting to be deployed or stocks.

I had it in target funds at the old place of employment and probably pissed away 2 decades.

 

[Sand]

401K account now up over 25% on the year. The Tariff Tantrum is shaping up to be a life changing event.

I'm up almost 5% on the year ( like 5x less) and just pipped back over the February highs, so back in uncharted territory. This gets me to 55x expenses for the last year (expenses were pretty low). So no chances being taken here. Just HOLD, nice and steady.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

401K account now up over 25% on the year. The Tariff Tantrum is shaping up to be a life changing event.

Are you able to buy/sell individual stocks in your 401K?

I’m able to send as much as I want to a self-directed account. I can buy/sell individual stocks there. I currently sent 75% of the money that comes into my 401k into self-directed and the other 25% stays in a target date fund.

 

[BassNBrew]

401K account now up over 25% on the year. The Tariff Tantrum is shaping up to be a life changing event.

Are you able to buy/sell individual stocks in your 401K?

I’m able to send as much as I want to a self-directed account. I can buy/sell individual stocks there. I currently sent 75% of the money that comes into my 401k into self-directed and the other 25% stays in a target date fund.

Target date funds are like prison with no parole. Individual stocks give you hope for parole.

 

[Sand]

Target date funds are like prison with no parole. Individual stocks give you hope for parole.

And this is BnB.

 

[BassNBrew]

Target date funds are like prison with no parole. Individual stocks give you hope for parole.

And this is BnB.

Bonds were named that because they bond you to you work desk for life.

 

[Capella]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Oh is that why after hours tanked?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Oh is that why after hours tanked?

At least they buried it on a Friday evening.

 

[Klimtology]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Oh is that why after hours tanked?

how do you know after hours tanked?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Oh is that why after hours tanked?

how do you know after hours tanked?

After hours on Friday.

 

[Redwes25]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Oh is that why after hours tanked?

how do you know after hours tanked?

Why do you care. You are still all cash

 

[Klimtology]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Oh is that why after hours tanked?

how do you know after hours tanked?

Why do you care. You are still all cash

Yea but i'm thinking about getting back in

 

[Todem]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Oh is that why after hours tanked?

how do you know after hours tanked?

Why do you care. You are still all cash

Yea but i'm thinking about getting back in

You have become my tell on this thread.

Correction incoming any moment.

 

[steelerfan1]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Oh is that why after hours tanked?

how do you know after hours tanked?

Why do you care. You are still all cash

Yea but i'm thinking about getting back in

You have become my tell on this thread.

Correction incoming any moment.

Eddie Mush. Not Safe For Work…

 

[NajehHejan]

Bought 1 call UNH 8/15/25 320.00 @ 23.55

Sell order in at 35.35 (+50%)

Not a fan of this trade though, of course, I hope it works out for you. This is more than 10% out of the money with a fairly rich premium. Three months is a long time so you're paying for that duration. I just think these headwinds are going to take a lot longer to get a kind of bounce-back that makes this a break-even trade (which is at $343 per share or a 20% gain in 3 months.) Some kind of acquittal from the Feds, though, should do you well.

Yes, I hear you, I think what I'm mostly hoping for is a pretty short term spike after the recent bounces off the 200 day moving average. I'm really hoping to be out of it within the month. Maybe selling at +50% is too aggressive. I'm up 5.5% so far but may look to unload at 25% instead. Appreciate your insight!

Sold at 31.00 for 31% gain

 

[BassNBrew]

Bought 1 call UNH 8/15/25 320.00 @ 23.55

Sell order in at 35.35 (+50%)

Not a fan of this trade though, of course, I hope it works out for you. This is more than 10% out of the money with a fairly rich premium. Three months is a long time so you're paying for that duration. I just think these headwinds are going to take a lot longer to get a kind of bounce-back that makes this a break-even trade (which is at $343 per share or a 20% gain in 3 months.) Some kind of acquittal from the Feds, though, should do you well.

Yes, I hear you, I think what I'm mostly hoping for is a pretty short term spike after the recent bounces off the 200 day moving average. I'm really hoping to be out of it within the month. Maybe selling at +50% is too aggressive. I'm up 5.5% so far but may look to unload at 25% instead. Appreciate your insight!

Sold at 31.00 for 31% gain

Congrats, well done.

 

[Todem]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Non event.

Also S&P has had this rating on US debt going on a decade.

 

[Sand]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Non event.

Also S&P has had this rating on US debt going on a decade.

Markets DGAF. Though it looks like homebuyers are taking it in the shorts thanks to it.

 

[Todem]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Non event.

Also S&P has had this rating on US debt going on a decade.

Markets DGAF. Though it looks like homebuyers are taking it in the shorts thanks to it.

For now.....the 10 year has been highly temperamental for two years running.....the Fing media can't help themselves.......S&P and Fitch already had our debt rating below AAA for a decade...LOL I mean come on media......cut this horse **** out already.

 

[pecorino]

Well done, Mr Davenport.
In my experience in trading options, it’s better to be a bit early to lock in a gain than it is to be patient (I.e. greedy) in hopes of squeezing out a few more percentage points. Don’t kick yourself if UNH keeps rising and you miss out on the gain. 31% in a week should be celebrated. You can’t look back.

 

[Sand]

To put this out there into the FFAisphere. Bought a bit of ORR today. Interesting long/short with a pretty decent track record on the PE side. The ETF is new.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

To put this out there into the FFAisphere. Bought a bit of ORR today. Interesting long/short with a pretty decent track record on the PE side. The ETF is new.

Expense Ratio (net)18.48% ??

 

[BassNBrew]

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that markets and central bankers underappreciate the risks created by record U.S. deficits, tariffs and international tensions.

Dimon, the veteran CEO and chairman of the biggest U.S. bank by assets, explained his worldview during his bank’s annual investor day meeting in New York. He said he believes the risks of higher inflation and even stagflation aren’t properly represented by stock market values, which have staged a comeback from lows in April.




“We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks,” Dimon said. “You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think they can,” he said.

“My own view is people feel pretty good because you haven’t seen effective tariffs,” Dimon said. “The market came down 10%, [it’s] back up 10%. That’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”

BassNBrew's Take - While Dimon was busy making an arse of himself and distracting his workforce over WFH, retail investors were at work on their couch scooping up shares of bargain priced stocks that his asset managers were fire saling. Now they are sitting on a pile of cash and he needs to tank the market so they can buy back into the market. Also the market came down 18%.

Jamie Dimon - 70 yr old touts coming to office 7 days a week as his reason to end WFH at JPM​

"“I’ve had it with this stuff,” Dimon said during the town hall, according to Barron’s. “I’ve been working seven days a godda-n week since COVID, and I come in, and—where is everybody else?"

Better petition God for an 8th day so you can maybe spend some time following the market.

 

[Sand]

To put this out there into the FFAisphere. Bought a bit of ORR today. Interesting long/short with a pretty decent track record on the PE side. The ETF is new.

Expense Ratio (net)18.48% ??

Yeah - the actual management fee is like 1%. The way that's reported with this one the leverage needed to get to +150% -100% gets you to that number. The ER isn't tiny, but it isn't that. You'll see the same thing on leveraged CEFs.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Moody’s just downgraded US debt. Wonder how markets will react.

Non event.

Also S&P has had this rating on US debt going on a decade.

Markets DGAF. Though it looks like homebuyers are taking it in the shorts thanks to it.

For now.....the 10 year has been highly temperamental for two years running.....the Fing media can't help themselves.......S&P and Fitch already had our debt rating below AAA for a decade...LOL I mean come on media......cut this horse **** out already.

Correct.

I blamed my wife then and little has changed.

 

[Sand]

To put this out there into the FFAisphere. Bought a bit of ORR today. Interesting long/short with a pretty decent track record on the PE side. The ETF is new.

Expense Ratio (net)18.48% ??

Yeah - the actual management fee is like 1%. The way that's reported with this one the leverage needed to get to +150% -100% gets you to that number. The ER isn't tiny, but it isn't that. You'll see the same thing on leveraged CEFs.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=448713&start=50&sid=f9c2f0784f6e8ab7d44462fc43087d3e

Discussion of ORR.

 

[Desert_Power]

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that markets and central bankers underappreciate the risks created by record U.S. deficits, tariffs and international tensions.

Dimon, the veteran CEO and chairman of the biggest U.S. bank by assets, explained his worldview during his bank’s annual investor day meeting in New York. He said he believes the risks of higher inflation and even stagflation aren’t properly represented by stock market values, which have staged a comeback from lows in April.




“We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks,” Dimon said. “You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think they can,” he said.

“My own view is people feel pretty good because you haven’t seen effective tariffs,” Dimon said. “The market came down 10%, [it’s] back up 10%. That’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”

BassNBrew's Take - While Dimon was busy making an arse of himself and distracting his workforce over WFH, retail investors were at work on their couch scooping up shares of bargain priced stocks that his asset managers were fire saling. Now they are sitting on a pile of cash and he needs to tank the market so they can buy back into the market. Also the market came down 18%.

Jamie Dimon - 70 yr old touts coming to office 7 days a week as his reason to end WFH at JPM​

"“I’ve had it with this stuff,” Dimon said during the town hall, according to Barron’s. “I’ve been working seven days a godda-n week since COVID, and I come in, and—where is everybody else?"

Better petition God for an 8th day so you can maybe spend some time following the market.

Those cover sheets aren't going to put themselves on TPS reports, guy.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

401K account now up over 25% on the year. The Tariff Tantrum is shaping up to be a life changing event.

I'm up almost 5% on the year ( like 5x less) and just pipped back over the February highs, so back in uncharted territory. This gets me to 55x expenses for the last year (expenses were pretty low). So no chances being taken here. Just HOLD, nice and steady.

55x expenses? Man. Wow. I could easily make that math work — if I didn’t have a spouse…….

 

[NajehHejan]

Who was the one again who liked HNST? Still like it? Stock is pretty flat from earnings last week, which seemed decent. I’m a sucker for a $5 stock because they often go to $10

 

[Klimtology]

I'm going back in. s&p 500

50/50

or

2/3 in and 1/3 out?

 

[BassNBrew]

Who was the one again who liked HNST? Still like it? Stock is pretty flat from earnings last week, which seemed decent. I’m a sucker for a $5 stock because they often go to $10

That was probably me. Just turned profitable, zero debt. I piled in when it dropped into the $3.90s during the tariff tantrum. Sold off a chunk after earnings to bring my portfolio allocation down to 1%. Current plan is to hold until $8.00 is reached and then trim again to 1%. I will add only if I see an unusual drop relative to the market on no news.

Q1 2025 Financial Highlights​

• Revenue: $97.25 million, marking a 12.8% increase from $86.22 million in Q1 2024. This surpassed analyst estimates of approximately $92.3 million .GlobeNewswire+2AInvest+2Yahoo Finance+2
• Net Income: $3.25 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $1.4 million in the same quarter last year .AInvest
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.03, exceeding the forecasted $0.01 .Investing.com
• Gross Margin: Expanded by 170 basis points to 38.7%, up from 37.0% in Q1 2024, driven by product cost savings, supply chain efficiencies, and favorable product mix .GlobeNewswire+1GuruFocus+1
• Adjusted EBITDA: $6.93 million, an improvement from $2.64 million in the prior-year quarter .

The Honest Company (NASDAQ: HNST) faces several business challenges in 2025, despite recent financial improvements. Key issues include:

1. New U.S. tariffs on imports from China and Mexico, effective February and March 2025 respectively, have impacted The Honest Company's cost structure. Products like baby wipes, sourced from China, are subject to increased costs. Although diapers imported from Mexico are currently exempt under USMCA, the company anticipates potential cost escalations due to these tariffs. To mitigate these effects, The Honest Company has implemented a three-pronged strategy: agile annual planning, strategic inventory management, and close collaboration with internal teams and external partners to optimize spending .SEC+2SEC+2Vogue Business+2MarketScreener​

2. The Honest Company operates in the rapidly growing clean and natural products market, which is attracting major consumer goods companies like Procter & Gamble, Unilever, and Johnson & Johnson. These competitors have substantial resources for marketing, product development, and pricing strategies, posing a significant threat to The Honest Company's market share and profitability .New Constructs+1Platform Executive+1Platform Executive​

3. The company's reliance on natural ingredients, such as fluff pulp and post-consumer recycled materials, exposes it to supply chain vulnerabilities. Increased demand for sustainable packaging and ingredients has led to higher raw material costs, negatively impacting profit margins .SEC​

4. With a significant portion of sales previously generated through its own website and select retailers, The Honest Company's limited distribution channels have constrained its market reach. Efforts to expand into new retail channels like dollar stores and club stores are underway to address this limitation .Platform ExecutiveAInvest​

5. Despite a positive net income in Q1 2025, The Honest Company has experienced operating losses over the past two years, with an average operating margin of negative 6.3%. Additionally, the company's free cash flow margin averaged a suboptimal 2.5%, with a $3 million cash burn reported in Q1 2025 .​

 

[Todem]

I'm going back in. s&p 500

50/50

or

2/3 in and 1/3 out?

Stay 100% out. You absolutely do not have the stomach for this, you clearly are a herd investor.

Stay FDIC 4-5%

This is not for you.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

The Reddit post showing a Target brand $10 USBC cable being changed to $18 is real, FYI. The inflation is going to be painful.

 

[identikit]

To put this out there into the FFAisphere. Bought a bit of ORR today. Interesting long/short with a pretty decent track record on the PE side. The ETF is new.

Expense Ratio (net)18.48% ??

Yeah - the actual management fee is like 1%. The way that's reported with this one the leverage needed to get to +150% -100% gets you to that number. The ER isn't tiny, but it isn't that. You'll see the same thing on leveraged CEFs.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=448713&start=50&sid=f9c2f0784f6e8ab7d44462fc43087d3e

Discussion of ORR.

In for a little

 

[Todem]

The Reddit post showing a Target brand $10 USBC cable being changed to $18 is real, FYI. The inflation is going to be painful.

Amazon brands and knock off all dirt cheap still.

And this won't be permanent......again no one knows exactly what we are going to see over the coming months....if ever.

 

[Sand]

I switched my brokerage over to Sofi from Fidelity and I have never been more disoriented. I can't even figure out how to execute a new trade. I hadn't checked anything since about last Thursday, came back today and was happy to see that the house was not on fire. Tuesday feels like it could be a day full of opportunity.

Looking to take a few new positions and give the new brokerage a spin.

Honestly, the easiest way (on a PC) to do a new trade is to click on any ticker in your account, click buy (or sell), and then changing the ticker in the window that pops up to the one you want. Otherwise it's a pretty simple interface.

 

[Sand]

The Reddit post showing a Target brand $10 USBC cable being changed to $18 is real, FYI. The inflation is going to be painful.

These place have 300% margins (or something similarly ridiculous) on accessories like this. Best Buy does this - sell you the Xbox, then try to sell you the HDMI cable for $50..

 

[Todem]

The Reddit post showing a Target brand $10 USBC cable being changed to $18 is real, FYI. The inflation is going to be painful.

These place have 300% margins (or something similarly ridiculous) on accessories like this. Best Buy does this - sell you the Xbox, then try to sell you the HDMI cable for $50..

Yep......gotta know where to go to buy these things.

Monster Cables anyone? Biggest scam I ever saw in the audio/video world.

 

[Todem]

25% move in UNH since we bought more at 256 a share. That's 5 days ago......unreal.

Hope some of you got in.

 

[General Malaise]

BTC up to $106,384 just short of previous record high of $108,786.

Since you're new here, you might find a lot of utility in the thread devoted to crypto and bitcoin. I'll see if I can find it for you since the search feature is pretty spotty.