I don't know who this dude is and it doesn't seem I'm missing out on much.Feurenstein seems to be on the attack right now but not posting anything of merit. Just posted a picture of a sinking ship (CYDY)
I looked into WIMHY and in my experience, when you have a parabolic stock like DKNG, you're better off just being in the winner. You really can't use SOTP because it just never seems to close the gap on a valuation perspective.Just look at TSLA vs any other OEM or NFLX vs a DIS. Maybe just because they aren't pure plays but if you used a NFLX multiple of DIS+ as some here talked about, you're probably getting everything else for pennies on the dollar.Jefferson the Caregiver said:Since everyone seems to like the gambling stocks, how about William Hill? WIMHY, ~6.60 now, was 10.50 last October
They are in a number of Nevada sports books and they have in game betting. If sports comes back, this is likely going to climb more.
Holy crap man.Shula-holic said:This is the question I asked my advisor today when he called on my managed funds to tell me he thought we should be a higher percentage in equities.
Yeah I mean I get hindsight is 20/20 and all, but that really kind of irritated me. Granted when we spoke in March I had significant new funds I thought I'd be investing that due to capital/cash needs for my business I had to have a change of plans on and leave in the business. So those new funds would have increased my equity exposure and now you have to re-allocate existing assets to do that rather than taking new funds to do it. Also granted that I could/should have sold bond fund assets out of my self directed SEP and reallocated them to equities myself. Long term I know I should have more in equity exposure because the way I initially built my worth was business driven and I erred on the side of having excess liquidity. But that call given where we are today and where we were just 60 days ago took me aback.Holy crap man.
Ironically after big events like this is when I acquire new clients and grow my book of business the most. Because of exactly what you just said.
Did say if they didn't have 75 in two weeks that he would seek board approval to go to FDA with interim results. Had the impression that there were more than 50 but less than 75 so far.So the only good news is that NP is saying we will be uplisted at some point?
Ugh, that's not going to move the needle one bit.
Just caught the very end, they only have 50 of the 75 patients enrolled for the current phase 2/3 trial?
This is not going to play well if that is the news.
Yeah, I mean I'm probably one of the more bearish people here so I'm sure some of the chirping was directed at me. But I actually lightened up some shorts a few weeks ago given you had states reopening and most seem to think the summer will be relatively fine. I just moved more to cash. You have states reopening and while data doesn't seem great, it isn't lock it back down again. So while Q2 numbers will be abysmal, companies will just say July numbers were flat or only down x% and give the market hope. Heck, July may even be up since you will have pent up demand and consumers will actually have money for now.The one worry is that if the reopening hits a snag, there’s a lot of froth built up ignoring all the bad economic numbers that are real. You can see it in here that people think it’s hysterical that anyone would think there might be a dip again. Reminds me of February when CV impact at all was shrugged off like it could never happen. Maybe we just say F it just keep everything open, but it sure seems like people are way too optimistic.
I agree. I’m up nicely from the February highs overall so not complaining, just want to avoid a big hit if I can. I wonder if with the reopening we aren’t going to see that second stimulus.Yeah, I mean I'm probably one of the more bearish people here so I'm sure some of the chirping was directed at me. But I actually lightened up some shorts a few weeks ago given you had states reopening and most seem to think the summer will be relatively fine. I just moved more to cash. You have states reopening and while data doesn't seem great, it isn't lock it back down again. So while Q2 numbers will be abysmal, companies will just say July numbers were flat or only down x% and give the market hope. Heck, July may even be up since you will have pent up demand and consumers will actually have money for now.
By my estimate, the Russell 3000, which accounts for ~98% of US market cap, is now only down ~$4T from it's peak and $2.7T from the beginning of the year. At the bottom, the market was down over $11.5T. I mean what are the bull arguments from here? Yes, record Fed intervention and stimulus. The stimulus likely did a good job of offsetting losses until now but what about going forward? I suppose you can bet on another round of stimulus but that is only because they see the depth of what is happening. It won't be free and they won't do it if we get a V-shaped recovery. The only other argument that Siegel made today is that this is essentially diverting wealth from outside the stock market to companies inside it. I.e. your local diner closes so we'll all be forced to eat at Outback. I don't have a great read on that but that seems like a fine line to thread. We're going to wreck the economy enough to put all the small businesses out of business but not so much to have us fall into a long recession. I also think with the economy being 2/3 consumer driven spending, we're in for more hurt than a more manufacturing focused economy.
If I wanted to get cute, I'd say you could probably stay long through the reopening into the summer and ride 2Q earnings. Depending on how the market reacts until then, guidance for Q3 earnings is likely to be positive. So then sell before we get into the fall ad jobs and the potential for a 2nd wave really picks back up. However, I'm not trying to get too cute. I have a feeling the smart money may pull the rug sooner than later in anticipation of all that. I also think the Fed might step away from the market a bit. They achieved what they intended. Reopened the markets. They also may want to rein in the equity markets especially in light of the broader economy.
Me too. I'll say this. Helene Meisler is not wavering from her retest prediction. Says months away. not days, not weeks but months. i'll stick with mancini's calls and her info.I agree. I’m up nicely from the February highs overall so not complaining, just want to avoid a big hit if I can. I wonder if with the reopening we aren’t going to see that second stimulus.
Does this apply to DKNG? Does it rely on casinos in new states like Colorado and Iowa? Can't it operate as a virtual book?I mean personally, I think these moves in sports betting stocks are stupid. I'm long a bit of DKNG in anticipation of the sports reopenings with no fans. I'll ride it but I'm getting ready to dump it. These things are more valuable than the casinos they rely on to get access to. These casinos didn't give away access for free. Lot of them have revenue sharing agreements. Market is likely to be over-saturated.
I’m not in real estate outside of my house, but I’ve got a lot of equity. If you include that, my net worth in round numbers is 20% real estate, 10% cash (taxable and tax deferred), 30% taxable equities and the rest in tax deferred equities/bonds. I don’t know the exact bond split but it’s not huge bond wise, mainly through those age based mutual funds via 401ks.Question for any of you guys who own a business or have direct investment in one. How do you look at your personal asset allocation in regards to your capital invested in your company?
It's a separate line item for me but I've always viewed it as being akin to being in equities when assessing my balances. If you were to look at my equity exposure percentage it's very small, but if you add both it and my capital inside my business together it is more normal for someone my age I believe. I'm doing some soul searching on allocations. I'm 45 years old and am sitting around 58% equities/business; 11% real estate, 13% bonds, 19% cash/equivalents.
The optimism about opening up is very delusional to me. Some sensible Americans and companies are adapting to this new coronavirus world others are not. Virus is still there. Half of the states the virus is not contained. Once precautions are ignored and people become more complacent sure to spread dramatically again and business will suffer.Yeah, I mean I'm probably one of the more bearish people here so I'm sure some of the chirping was directed at me. But I actually lightened up some shorts a few weeks ago given you had states reopening and most seem to think the summer will be relatively fine. I just moved more to cash. You have states reopening and while data doesn't seem great, it isn't lock it back down again. So while Q2 numbers will be abysmal, companies will just say July numbers were flat or only down x% and give the market hope. Heck, July may even be up since you will have pent up demand and consumers will actually have money for now.
By my estimate, the Russell 3000, which accounts for ~98% of US market cap, is now only down ~$4T from it's peak and $2.7T from the beginning of the year. At the bottom, the market was down over $11.5T. I mean what are the bull arguments from here? Yes, record Fed intervention and stimulus. The stimulus likely did a good job of offsetting losses until now but what about going forward? I suppose you can bet on another round of stimulus but that is only because they see the depth of what is happening. It won't be free and they won't do it if we get a V-shaped recovery. The only other argument that Siegel made today is that this is essentially diverting wealth from outside the stock market to companies inside it. I.e. your local diner closes so we'll all be forced to eat at Outback. I don't have a great read on that but that seems like a fine line to thread. We're going to wreck the economy enough to put all the small businesses out of business but not so much to have us fall into a long recession. I also think with the economy being 2/3 consumer driven spending, we're in for more hurt than a more manufacturing focused economy.
If I wanted to get cute, I'd say you could probably stay long through the reopening into the summer and ride 2Q earnings. Depending on how the market reacts until then, guidance for Q3 earnings is likely to be positive. So then sell before we get into the fall when the lack of jobs and the potential for a 2nd wave really picks back up. However, I'm not trying to get too cute. I have a feeling the smart money may pull the rug sooner than later in anticipation of all that. I also think the Fed might step away from the market a bit. They achieved what they intended. Reopened the markets. They also may want to rein in the equity markets especially in light of the broader economy.
Did say they were hiring someone to specialize in commercialization of the product.Have to say that was a very disappointing call. NP signaled to the market that he had something material to announce but there was nothing so I guess that was too much to expect of him. It's clear that he is over his skis.
Is the uplisting just aspirational? I thought that was a key takeaway.Have to say that was a very disappointing call. NP signaled to the market that he had something material to announce but there was nothing so I guess that was too much to expect of him. It's clear that he is over his skis.
It would have been better to wait to have the call and announce it was a done deal. NP has a major credibility issue so another promise that it's around the corner rings hollow.Is the uplisting just aspirational? I thought that was a key takeaway.
You seem to have soured a bunch. I wouldn’t want to sell as uplisting would absolutely be a boost, but your posts worry me a little.It would have been better to wait to have the call and announce it was a done deal. NP has a major credibility issue so another promise that it's around the corner rings hollow.
I am #notselling but I am disappointed in the quality of the management. I am confident of the science and the stock will react but management seems to be making the same type of mistakes.You seem to have soured a bunch. I wouldn’t want to sell as uplisting would absolutely be a boost, but your posts worry me a little.
The date that worries me is August 1, when UI reverts to normal. I’m skeptical that the $600 bonuses will be extended even in the event of a second stimulus bill. I know there are a lot of politically charged takes out there regarding the enhanced benefits’ effect on labor supply and whatnot, but there are many jobs out there that have disappeared for good. Letting the floor fall out from under those people could be extremely bad. IMO it’s easy to imagine a situation in which 12% unemployment + standard UI results in a weaker economy than 30% unemployment + enhanced UI.I mean what are the bull arguments from here? Yes, record Fed intervention and stimulus. The stimulus likely did a good job of offsetting losses until now but what about going forward? I suppose you can bet on another round of stimulus but that is only because they see the depth of what is happening. It won't be free and they won't do it if we get a V-shaped recovery. The only other argument that Siegel made today is that this is essentially diverting wealth from outside the stock market to companies inside it. I.e. your local diner closes so we'll all be forced to eat at Outback. I don't have a great read on that but that seems like a fine line to thread. We're going to wreck the economy enough to put all the small businesses out of business but not so much to have us fall into a long recession. I also think with the economy being 2/3 consumer driven spending, we're in for more hurt than a more manufacturing focused economy.
It’s annoying because the easiest thing to do is to ‘do nothing’ and that happens to be the best thing as well. Why have a call with nothing material to announce.Have to say that was a very disappointing call. NP signaled to the market that he had something material to announce but there was nothing so I guess that was too much to expect of him. It's clear that he is over his skis.
So it's complicated and I'm not an expert on it. This article does a decent job of explaining it. Each state is different which makes it even harder to generalize but essentially, you need to have a license to operate a physical casino to get a sports betting license. The land-based casinos can then give what they call 'skins' away to sports betting websites. NJ allows each casino to 3 skins so the price is likely less. A lot of states only allow 1 skin per casino but that is for each casino the company owns. So if PENN owns 3 casinos in Indiana, they can sell 3 skins. Some will keep a skin for their own book and I think I read some states that the skin won't count against the company opening their own book. That mainly would impact PENN since they're launching the Barstool Sports App.Does this apply to DKNG? Does it rely on casinos in new states like Colorado and Iowa? Can't it operate as a virtual book?
Agree, less calls = less mistakes, less doubt. Just deliver.It would have been better to wait to have the call and announce it was a done deal. NP has a major credibility issue so another promise that it's around the corner rings hollow.
Did I miss the boat on this at $83?-OZ- said:![]()
bought in a while ago as a buy and hold, over 60% gain. I'll just hang on. It's probably not Amazon, but maybe.
I think so.Did I miss the boat on this at $83?
only have about $1500 to spend. Looking to do mostly VTSAX, but just add a small amount of single stock holds.
have som AAPL, MSFT, JNJ and DFS (thanks @Todem for DFS)
I think I like holding much better than the quick trade thing, so was looking at SE or Comcast.
Looks like SE has some larger potential though...
As a gamble, could pay off.So $HTZ opened at $0.72, went as high as $1.26, closed at $0.56 and is now at $0.69 in a-h. Long-term, it's probably a $0. But at $0.50, may be worth a huge gamble for a short squeeze ad some stupidity on the hope of it being worth anything.
That's where I'm at. I'm still just scaling in and can afford a couple corrections, but this has juggernaut written all over it.-OZ- said:![]()
bought in a while ago as a buy and hold, over 60% gain. I'll just hang on. It's probably not Amazon, but maybe.
Tell me more about this SE company if you could pleaseThat's where I'm at. I'm still just scaling in and can afford a couple corrections, but this has juggernaut written all over it.
This came out today and does a better job than I could.Tell me more about this SE company if you could please
In a big bounce-back day for the overall markets, investors continued to take a gamble on DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ: DKNG).
3 Big Betting Trends
The rally in the online sports betting website's stock is in part attributed to an encouraging webinar its CEO Jason Robins hosted on Friday. The CEO highlighted three encouraging trends to support the long-term sports betting industry, according to Legal Sports Report:
States that haven't yet legalized sports betting could choose to do so as it represents a new revenue stream for the government.
The general public is showing an interest in betting on non-sporting events. In fact, DraftKings is seeing a strong interest in people betting on TV shows like "The Bachelor." Sports-themed betting is also gaining in popularity, such as people betting on video game simulations.
The American public could turn to online betting to replace real-life parties and get-togethers.
More Gambling Opportunities
In a separate interview with Barron's, Robins highlighted a shift in focus whereby the sports betting company will offer more in-game betting opportunities.
Taking a look at the United Kingdom, around 75% of revenues come from in-game wagering versus the U.S. market where it is "much lower."
"You can bet on almost anything in an EPL (English Premier League soccer) game including who will get the next yellow card," he told Barron's. "Arguably, U.S. sports like baseball are better built for this."
The stock closed Tuesday's session higher by 14.7% at $33.39 per share. The stock was trading under $20 a share as recently as April 30.
It's the only game in town. Wonder what stocks Pete Rose, Barkley and Jordan are betting onLolz, Stonks
I think advisors need to have more communication with their clients and make sure they understand each client's risk capacity. Sounds like you had mainly been more worried about liquidity than growth/equity exposure. Still feel like he should have called since March.Yeah I mean I get hindsight is 20/20 and all, but that really kind of irritated me. Granted when we spoke in March I had significant new funds I thought I'd be investing that due to capital/cash needs for my business I had to have a change of plans on and leave in the business. So those new funds would have increased my equity exposure and now you have to re-allocate existing assets to do that rather than taking new funds to do it. Also granted that I could/should have sold bond fund assets out of my self directed SEP and reallocated them to equities myself. Long term I know I should have more in equity exposure because the way I initially built my worth was business driven and I erred on the side of having excess liquidity. But that call given where we are today and where we were just 60 days ago took me aback.
I don't own a business or directly invest in one. But my understanding was that in general you treat that as equity-like exposure, just like you treat working for a company as bond-like exposure. The qualities of the equity or bond depend on how successful the business is, how secure you are there, the industry, etc.Question for any of you guys who own a business or have direct investment in one. How do you look at your personal asset allocation in regards to your capital invested in your company?
It's a separate line item for me but I've always viewed it as being akin to being in equities when assessing my balances. If you were to look at my equity exposure percentage it's very small, but if you add both it and my capital inside my business together it is more normal for someone my age I believe. I'm doing some soul searching on allocations. I'm 45 years old and am sitting around 58% equities/business; 11% real estate, 13% bonds, 19% cash/equivalents.
Honestly, history is littered with companies who had good products but bad management. My opinion is that the management is almost as important as the product, even more so during a ramp up phase. Not feeling very confident in CYDY. :(I am #notselling but I am disappointed in the quality of the management. I am confident of the science and the stock will react but management seems to be making the same type of mistakes.
Looks like it opened ~5 percent down in Germany. Holding right around $3 when converted to USD.I am #notselling but I am disappointed in the quality of the management. I am confident of the science and the stock will react but management seems to be making the same type of mistakes.
not badIt’s possible. Everything is gradually opening up. I think the only chance of another huge drop is if we have to shut down again but I don’t think a lot of the country would go for that. It would have to be a wave worse than we just went through. But also: I have no idea.Experiencing some fomo right now with some cash on the sidelines. Is this train going to keep going and push through like nothing has happened. Just a small bump in the road.![]()
Me either. The point of a call like that shouldn’t be to drive the stock lower and that’s all their calls seem to do. I’ve made a lot but feeling like I should sell if there’s any type of bump up.Honestly, history is littered with companies who had good products but bad management. My opinion is that the management is almost as important as the product, even more so during a ramp up phase. Not feeling very confident in CYDY. :(
They shouldn't have made it an after hours call. They got people's hopes up. So it seemed like it was a bad call when it was just a nothing burger call.Me either. The point of a call like that shouldn’t be to drive the stock lower and that’s all their calls seem to do. I’ve made a lot but feeling like I should sell if there’s any type of bump up.
If I was a nicer guy, I would sell my CYDY and guarantee a run into the 6s.Me either. The point of a call like that shouldn’t be to drive the stock lower and that’s all their calls seem to do. I’ve made a lot but feeling like I should sell if there’s any type of bump up.
Well they did mention pursuing moving to the NYSE. Doing something like that intra-hours would have led to different complaints.They shouldn't have made it an after hours call. They got people's hopes up. So it seemed like it was a bad call when it was just a nothing burger call.