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So the only good news is that NP is saying we will be uplisted at some point?

Ugh, that's not going to move the needle one bit.

Just caught the very end, they only have 50 of the 75 patients enrolled for the current phase 2/3 trial?

This is not going to play well if that is the news.

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Since everyone seems to like the gambling stocks, how about William Hill?  WIMHY, ~6.60 now, was 10.50 last October

They are in a number of Nevada sports books and they have in game betting.  If sports comes back, this is likely going to climb more.
I looked into WIMHY and in my experience, when you have a parabolic stock like DKNG, you're better off just being in the winner. You really can't use SOTP because it just never seems to close the gap on a valuation perspective.Just look at TSLA vs any other OEM or NFLX vs a DIS. Maybe just because they aren't pure plays but if you used a NFLX multiple of DIS+ as some here talked about, you're probably getting everything else for pennies on the dollar. 

As far as WIMHY, it only has 8% of its revenue from the US. Yes, that is to be expected since it's a growing market and that should grow but their retail business in the UK is likely saturated and they're actually facing headwinds in it. Similar with their online business. 

ERI, the casino operator, actually owns 20% of William Hill USA, which will eventually IPO, in exchange for giving it access to its states . I believe there is some uncertainty what they'll do with with the Caesars properties. Could benefit WIMHY as well but I kinda like the casinos and ERI to get exposure to WIMHY. I mean personally, I think these moves in sports betting stocks are stupid. I'm long a bit of DKNG in anticipation of the sports reopenings with no fans. I'll ride it but I'm getting ready to dump it. These things are more valuable than the casinos they rely on to get access to. These casinos didn't give away access for free. Lot of them have revenue sharing agreements. Market is likely to be over-saturated. 

 
Shula-holic said:
This is the question I asked my advisor today when he called on my managed funds to tell me he thought we should be a higher percentage in equities.
Holy crap man.

Ironically after big events like this is when I acquire new clients and grow my book of business the most. Because of exactly what you just said. 

 
Holy crap man.

Ironically after big events like this is when I acquire new clients and grow my book of business the most. Because of exactly what you just said. 
Yeah I mean I get hindsight is 20/20 and all, but that really kind of irritated me.  Granted when we spoke in March I had significant new funds I thought I'd be investing that due to capital/cash needs for my business I had to have a change of plans on and leave in the business.  So those new funds would have increased my equity exposure and now you have to re-allocate existing assets to do that rather than taking new funds to do it.  Also granted that I could/should have sold bond fund assets out of my self directed SEP and reallocated them to equities myself.  Long term I know I should have more in equity exposure because the way I initially built my worth was business driven and I erred on the side of having excess liquidity.  But that call given where we are today and where we were just 60 days ago took me aback. 

 
So the only good news is that NP is saying we will be uplisted at some point?

Ugh, that's not going to move the needle one bit.

Just caught the very end, they only have 50 of the 75 patients enrolled for the current phase 2/3 trial?

This is not going to play well if that is the news.
Did say if they didn't have 75 in two weeks that he would seek board approval to go to FDA with interim results. Had the impression that there were more than 50 but less than 75 so far.

 
The one worry is that if the reopening hits a snag, there’s a lot of froth built up ignoring all the bad economic numbers that are real. You can see it in here that people think it’s hysterical that anyone would think there might be a dip again. Reminds me of February when CV impact at all was shrugged off like it could never happen. Maybe we just say F it just keep everything open, but it sure seems like people are way too optimistic.
Yeah, I mean I'm probably one of the more bearish people here so I'm sure some of the chirping was directed at me. But I actually lightened up some shorts a few weeks ago given you had states reopening and most seem to think the summer will be relatively fine. I just moved more to cash. You have states reopening and while data doesn't seem great, it isn't lock it back down again. So while Q2 numbers will be abysmal, companies will just say July numbers were flat or only down x% and give the market hope. Heck, July may even be up since you will have pent up demand and consumers will actually have money for now. 

By my estimate, the Russell 3000, which accounts for ~98% of US market cap, is now only down ~$4T from it's peak and $2.7T from the beginning of the year. At the bottom, the market was down over $11.5T. I mean what are the bull arguments from here? Yes, record Fed intervention and stimulus. The stimulus likely did a good job of offsetting losses until now but what about going forward? I suppose you can bet on another round of stimulus but that is only because they see the depth of what is happening. It won't be free and they won't do it if we get a V-shaped recovery. The only other argument that Siegel made today is that this is essentially diverting wealth from outside the stock market to companies inside it. I.e. your local diner closes so we'll all be forced to eat at Outback. I don't have a great read on that but that seems like a fine line to thread. We're going to wreck the economy enough to put all the small businesses out of business but not so much to have us fall into a long recession. I also think with the economy being 2/3 consumer driven spending, we're in for more hurt than a more manufacturing focused economy. 

If I wanted to get cute, I'd say you could probably stay long through the reopening into the summer and ride 2Q earnings. Depending on how the market reacts until then, guidance for Q3 earnings is likely to be positive. So then sell before we get into the fall when the lack  of jobs and the potential for a 2nd wave really picks back up. However, I'm not trying to get too cute. I have a feeling the smart money may pull the rug sooner than later in anticipation of all that. I also think the Fed might step away from the market a bit. They achieved what they intended. Reopened the markets. They also may want to rein in the equity markets especially in light of the broader economy.  

 
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Question for any of you guys who own a business or have direct investment in one.  How do you look at your personal asset allocation in regards to your capital invested in your company? 

It's a separate line item for me but I've always viewed it as being akin to being in equities when assessing my balances.  If you were to look at my equity exposure percentage it's very small, but if you add both it and my capital inside my business together it is more normal for someone my age I believe.  I'm doing some soul searching on allocations.  I'm 45 years old and am sitting around 58% equities/business; 11% real estate, 13% bonds, 19% cash/equivalents.

 
Yeah, I mean I'm probably one of the more bearish people here so I'm sure some of the chirping was directed at me. But I actually lightened up some shorts a few weeks ago given you had states reopening and most seem to think the summer will be relatively fine. I just moved more to cash. You have states reopening and while data doesn't seem great, it isn't lock it back down again. So while Q2 numbers will be abysmal, companies will just say July numbers were flat or only down x% and give the market hope. Heck, July may even be up since you will have pent up demand and consumers will actually have money for now. 

By my estimate, the Russell 3000, which accounts for ~98% of US market cap, is now only down ~$4T from it's peak and $2.7T from the beginning of the year. At the bottom, the market was down over $11.5T. I mean what are the bull arguments from here? Yes, record Fed intervention and stimulus. The stimulus likely did a good job of offsetting losses until now but what about going forward? I suppose you can bet on another round of stimulus but that is only because they see the depth of what is happening. It won't be free and they won't do it if we get a V-shaped recovery. The only other argument that Siegel made today is that this is essentially diverting wealth from outside the stock market to companies inside it. I.e. your local diner closes so we'll all be forced to eat at Outback. I don't have a great read on that but that seems like a fine line to thread. We're going to wreck the economy enough to put all the small businesses out of business but not so much to have us fall into a long recession. I also think with the economy being 2/3 consumer driven spending, we're in for more hurt than a more manufacturing focused economy. 

If I wanted to get cute, I'd say you could probably stay long through the reopening into the summer and ride 2Q earnings. Depending on how the market reacts until then, guidance for Q3 earnings is likely to be positive. So then sell before we get into the fall ad jobs and the potential for a 2nd wave really picks back up. However, I'm not trying to get too cute. I have a feeling the smart money may pull the rug sooner than later in anticipation of all that. I also think the Fed might step away from the market a bit. They achieved what they intended. Reopened the markets. They also may want to rein in the equity markets especially in light of the broader economy.  
I agree. I’m up nicely from the February highs overall so not complaining, just want to avoid a big hit if I can. I wonder if with the reopening we aren’t going to see that second stimulus.

 
I agree. I’m up nicely from the February highs overall so not complaining, just want to avoid a big hit if I can. I wonder if with the reopening we aren’t going to see that second stimulus.
Me too. I'll say this. Helene Meisler is not wavering from her retest prediction. Says months away. not days, not weeks but months. i'll stick with mancini's calls and her info.

 
I mean personally, I think these moves in sports betting stocks are stupid. I'm long a bit of DKNG in anticipation of the sports reopenings with no fans. I'll ride it but I'm getting ready to dump it. These things are more valuable than the casinos they rely on to get access to. These casinos didn't give away access for free. Lot of them have revenue sharing agreements. Market is likely to be over-saturated. 
Does this apply to DKNG?  Does it rely on casinos in new states like Colorado and Iowa?  Can't it operate as a virtual book?

 
Question for any of you guys who own a business or have direct investment in one.  How do you look at your personal asset allocation in regards to your capital invested in your company? 

It's a separate line item for me but I've always viewed it as being akin to being in equities when assessing my balances.  If you were to look at my equity exposure percentage it's very small, but if you add both it and my capital inside my business together it is more normal for someone my age I believe.  I'm doing some soul searching on allocations.  I'm 45 years old and am sitting around 58% equities/business; 11% real estate, 13% bonds, 19% cash/equivalents.
I’m not in real estate outside of my house, but I’ve got a lot of equity. If you include that, my net worth in round numbers is 20% real estate, 10% cash (taxable and tax deferred), 30% taxable equities and the rest in tax deferred equities/bonds. I don’t know the exact bond split but it’s not huge bond wise, mainly through those age based mutual funds via 401ks.

 
Got a email from princes cruises - $240 for two people in a inside cabin over 4 nights out of Ft Lauderdale to the private beach island and back in early november.

Going to pass but I actually spent the 5 mIn looking into the details and spoke to Mrs ref about it.  3 weeks ago it would have been an auto delete.

 
Have to say that was a very disappointing call.  NP signaled to the market that he had something material to announce but there was nothing so I guess that was too much to expect of him.  It's clear that he is over his skis.

 
Yeah, I mean I'm probably one of the more bearish people here so I'm sure some of the chirping was directed at me. But I actually lightened up some shorts a few weeks ago given you had states reopening and most seem to think the summer will be relatively fine. I just moved more to cash. You have states reopening and while data doesn't seem great, it isn't lock it back down again. So while Q2 numbers will be abysmal, companies will just say July numbers were flat or only down x% and give the market hope. Heck, July may even be up since you will have pent up demand and consumers will actually have money for now. 

By my estimate, the Russell 3000, which accounts for ~98% of US market cap, is now only down ~$4T from it's peak and $2.7T from the beginning of the year. At the bottom, the market was down over $11.5T. I mean what are the bull arguments from here? Yes, record Fed intervention and stimulus. The stimulus likely did a good job of offsetting losses until now but what about going forward? I suppose you can bet on another round of stimulus but that is only because they see the depth of what is happening. It won't be free and they won't do it if we get a V-shaped recovery. The only other argument that Siegel made today is that this is essentially diverting wealth from outside the stock market to companies inside it. I.e. your local diner closes so we'll all be forced to eat at Outback. I don't have a great read on that but that seems like a fine line to thread. We're going to wreck the economy enough to put all the small businesses out of business but not so much to have us fall into a long recession. I also think with the economy being 2/3 consumer driven spending, we're in for more hurt than a more manufacturing focused economy. 

If I wanted to get cute, I'd say you could probably stay long through the reopening into the summer and ride 2Q earnings. Depending on how the market reacts until then, guidance for Q3 earnings is likely to be positive. So then sell before we get into the fall when the lack  of jobs and the potential for a 2nd wave really picks back up. However, I'm not trying to get too cute. I have a feeling the smart money may pull the rug sooner than later in anticipation of all that. I also think the Fed might step away from the market a bit. They achieved what they intended. Reopened the markets. They also may want to rein in the equity markets especially in light of the broader economy.  
The optimism about opening up is very delusional to me. Some sensible Americans and companies are adapting to this new coronavirus world others are not.  Virus is still there. Half of the states the virus is not contained. Once precautions are ignored and people become more complacent sure to spread dramatically again and business will suffer.

 
Have to say that was a very disappointing call.  NP signaled to the market that he had something material to announce but there was nothing so I guess that was too much to expect of him.  It's clear that he is over his skis.
Did say they were hiring someone to specialize in commercialization of the product. 

Always waiting for results though is frustrating as everything seems to be in the "works". They have so much going on. If they submit their application for uplisting by the end of next week that would be cool.

 
Have to say that was a very disappointing call.  NP signaled to the market that he had something material to announce but there was nothing so I guess that was too much to expect of him.  It's clear that he is over his skis.
Is the uplisting just aspirational? I thought that was a key takeaway.

 
Is the uplisting just aspirational? I thought that was a key takeaway.
It would have been better to wait to have the call and announce it was a done deal.  NP has a major credibility issue so another promise that it's around the corner rings hollow.

 
It would have been better to wait to have the call and announce it was a done deal.  NP has a major credibility issue so another promise that it's around the corner rings hollow.
You seem to have soured a bunch. I wouldn’t want to sell as uplisting would absolutely be a boost, but your posts worry me a little.

 
You seem to have soured a bunch. I wouldn’t want to sell as uplisting would absolutely be a boost, but your posts worry me a little.
I am #notselling but I am disappointed in the quality of the management.  I am confident of the science and the stock will react but management seems to be making the same type of mistakes.

 
I mean what are the bull arguments from here? Yes, record Fed intervention and stimulus. The stimulus likely did a good job of offsetting losses until now but what about going forward? I suppose you can bet on another round of stimulus but that is only because they see the depth of what is happening. It won't be free and they won't do it if we get a V-shaped recovery. The only other argument that Siegel made today is that this is essentially diverting wealth from outside the stock market to companies inside it. I.e. your local diner closes so we'll all be forced to eat at Outback. I don't have a great read on that but that seems like a fine line to thread. We're going to wreck the economy enough to put all the small businesses out of business but not so much to have us fall into a long recession. I also think with the economy being 2/3 consumer driven spending, we're in for more hurt than a more manufacturing focused economy.
The date that worries me is August 1, when UI reverts to normal. I’m skeptical that the $600 bonuses will be extended even in the event of a second stimulus bill. I know there are a lot of politically charged takes out there regarding the enhanced benefits’ effect on labor supply and whatnot, but there are many jobs out there that have disappeared for good. Letting the floor fall out from under those people could be extremely bad. IMO it’s easy to imagine a situation in which 12% unemployment + standard UI results in a weaker economy than 30% unemployment + enhanced UI. 

(This hasn’t changed my buying/selling behavior, because stonks go up. But it concerns me.)

 
Have to say that was a very disappointing call.  NP signaled to the market that he had something material to announce but there was nothing so I guess that was too much to expect of him.  It's clear that he is over his skis.
It’s annoying because the easiest thing to do is to ‘do nothing’ and that happens to be the best thing as well. Why have a call with nothing material to announce. 

 
Does this apply to DKNG?  Does it rely on casinos in new states like Colorado and Iowa?  Can't it operate as a virtual book?
So it's complicated and I'm not an expert on it. This article does a decent job of explaining it. Each state is different which makes it even harder to generalize but essentially, you need to have a license to operate a physical casino to get a sports betting license. The land-based casinos can then give what they call 'skins' away to sports betting websites. NJ allows each casino to 3 skins so the price is likely less. A lot of states only allow 1 skin per casino but that is for each casino the company owns. So if PENN owns 3 casinos in Indiana, they can sell 3 skins. Some will keep a skin for their own book and I think I read some states that the skin won't count against the company opening their own book. That mainly would impact PENN since they're launching the Barstool Sports App. 

As that CNBC article states, a lot of the companies seemed to give up equity to get into the state. I know ERI got 20% of William Hill's US business. Looks like CZR got an equity state in DKNG and BYD got one in FanDuel. I have no idea what the revenue sharing looks like. I know ERI seemed to think William Hill overpaid for it but the land-based casinos may have underestimated the market? Also, since there were a lot of skins available in these states, I suppose the supply may have outstripped demand. So perhaps DKNG was able to negotiate down revenue sharing in states with multiple skins. On the flip side, that likely means there will be a lot of competition in those states. You can probably make the argument that DKNG will be a market leader so they won't care as much about competition and will benefit by lower costs to entry. But one big difference between sports books and casinos is that the states usually limited how many casinos they legalized due to concerns over cannibalization and running a casino into bankruptcy and incurring job losses. For sports books, I don't see that so states will likely legalize as many sports books as possible. And sports books are already low-margin hence why I presume most here have experienced the lack of drinks in a sportsbook. 

Here is PENN's announcement to agreements with various sports books. By my count, they gave away 32 skins to 4 companies across 13 states. 

This is from DKNG's S-1:

●In 2018, we entered into multi-year arrangements with Resorts Casino and Hotel (“Resorts”, providing us access to the New Jersey market), with del Lago Resort and Casino (“del Lago”, providing us access to the New York market) and with Scarlet Pearl Casino Resort (“Scarlet Pearl”, providing us access to the Mississippi market).

 ●In 2019, we entered into multi-year arrangements with Penn National Gaming Inc. (“Penn National”, providing us access to the Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and West Virginia markets) and with Wild Rose Casino and Resort (“Wild Rose”, providing us with access to the Iowa market).

●In 2020, we entered into an arrangement with Twin River Worldwide Holdings, Inc. (“Twin River”), for retail and online sportsbook services providing us access to the Colorado market. On May 1, 2020, we launched our online Sportsbook in Colorado.

 
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-OZ- said:
:D

bought in a while ago as a buy and hold, over 60% gain. I'll just hang on. It's probably not Amazon, but maybe
Did I miss the boat on this at $83?

only have about $1500 to spend. Looking to do mostly VTSAX, but just add a small amount of single stock holds.

have som AAPL, MSFT, JNJ and DFS (thanks @Todem for DFS)

I think I like holding much better than the quick trade thing, so was looking at SE or Comcast.

Looks like SE has some larger potential though...

 
Did I miss the boat on this at $83?

only have about $1500 to spend. Looking to do mostly VTSAX, but just add a small amount of single stock holds.

have som AAPL, MSFT, JNJ and DFS (thanks @Todem for DFS)

I think I like holding much better than the quick trade thing, so was looking at SE or Comcast.

Looks like SE has some larger potential though...
I think so.

I'm definitely not claiming similar upside but I wonder how many people who were lucky enough to get into Amazon early gave it up for early gains and lost out long term. I know I had bought early, in 2000, then sold when I transferred brokerages. Never bought back in even though I thought it had a nice future (never predicted what it became).

Now I have my Roth in ten companies plus QCLN and SBIO, buy and hold.

Then there's the trading account.  Now in DFS, CYDY, MFA. I've tended to do better with my long term holdings but I'm not trading as often in my trading account as guys here who are doing well.

 
So $HTZ opened at $0.72, went as high as $1.26, closed at $0.56 and is now at $0.69 in a-h. Long-term, it's probably a $0. But at $0.50, may be worth a huge gamble for a short squeeze ad some stupidity on the hope of it being worth anything. 

 
So $HTZ opened at $0.72, went as high as $1.26, closed at $0.56 and is now at $0.69 in a-h. Long-term, it's probably a $0. But at $0.50, may be worth a huge gamble for a short squeeze ad some stupidity on the hope of it being worth anything. 
As a gamble, could pay off. 

I wouldn't call it an investment.

 
-OZ- said:
:D

bought in a while ago as a buy and hold, over 60% gain. I'll just hang on. It's probably not Amazon, but maybe
That's where I'm at. I'm still just scaling in and can afford a couple corrections, but this has juggernaut written all over it.

 
DraftKings Article

In a big bounce-back day for the overall markets, investors continued to take a gamble on DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ: DKNG).

3 Big Betting Trends

The rally in the online sports betting website's stock is in part attributed to an encouraging webinar its CEO Jason Robins hosted on Friday. The CEO highlighted three encouraging trends to support the long-term sports betting industry, according to Legal Sports Report:

States that haven't yet legalized sports betting could choose to do so as it represents a new revenue stream for the government.

The general public is showing an interest in betting on non-sporting events. In fact, DraftKings is seeing a strong interest in people betting on TV shows like "The Bachelor." Sports-themed betting is also gaining in popularity, such as people betting on video game simulations.

The American public could turn to online betting to replace real-life parties and get-togethers.

More Gambling Opportunities

In a separate interview with Barron's, Robins highlighted a shift in focus whereby the sports betting company will offer more in-game betting opportunities.

Taking a look at the United Kingdom, around 75% of revenues come from in-game wagering versus the U.S. market where it is "much lower."

"You can bet on almost anything in an EPL (English Premier League soccer) game including who will get the next yellow card," he told Barron's. "Arguably, U.S. sports like baseball are better built for this."

The stock closed Tuesday's session higher by 14.7% at $33.39 per share. The stock was trading under $20 a share as recently as April 30.

 
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Yeah I mean I get hindsight is 20/20 and all, but that really kind of irritated me.  Granted when we spoke in March I had significant new funds I thought I'd be investing that due to capital/cash needs for my business I had to have a change of plans on and leave in the business.  So those new funds would have increased my equity exposure and now you have to re-allocate existing assets to do that rather than taking new funds to do it.  Also granted that I could/should have sold bond fund assets out of my self directed SEP and reallocated them to equities myself.  Long term I know I should have more in equity exposure because the way I initially built my worth was business driven and I erred on the side of having excess liquidity.  But that call given where we are today and where we were just 60 days ago took me aback. 
I think advisors need to have more communication with their clients and make sure they understand each client's risk capacity. Sounds like you had mainly been more worried about liquidity than growth/equity exposure. Still feel like he should have called since March. 

 
Question for any of you guys who own a business or have direct investment in one.  How do you look at your personal asset allocation in regards to your capital invested in your company? 

It's a separate line item for me but I've always viewed it as being akin to being in equities when assessing my balances.  If you were to look at my equity exposure percentage it's very small, but if you add both it and my capital inside my business together it is more normal for someone my age I believe.  I'm doing some soul searching on allocations.  I'm 45 years old and am sitting around 58% equities/business; 11% real estate, 13% bonds, 19% cash/equivalents.
I don't own a business or directly invest in one. But my understanding was that in general you treat that as equity-like exposure, just like you treat working for a company as bond-like exposure. The qualities of the equity or bond depend on how successful the business is, how secure you are there, the industry, etc. 

Your allocations look really conservative to me, depending on the real estate and bond holdings. You also don't want too much tied up in your business (similar to having too much of your 401k in company stock) so I'd make sure those other equities are differing industries/stock types. 

 
I am #notselling but I am disappointed in the quality of the management.  I am confident of the science and the stock will react but management seems to be making the same type of mistakes.
Honestly, history is littered with companies who had good products but bad management. My opinion is that the management is almost as important as the product, even more so during a ramp up phase. Not feeling very confident in CYDY.  :(

 
I am #notselling but I am disappointed in the quality of the management.  I am confident of the science and the stock will react but management seems to be making the same type of mistakes.
Looks like it opened ~5 percent down in Germany. Holding right around $3 when converted to USD.  :shrug: not bad

 
Experiencing some fomo right now with some cash on the sidelines.  Is this train going to keep going and push through like nothing has happened.  Just a small bump in the road.  :loco:

 
Experiencing some fomo right now with some cash on the sidelines.  Is this train going to keep going and push through like nothing has happened.  Just a small bump in the road.  :loco:
It’s possible. Everything is gradually opening up. I think the only chance of another huge drop is if we have to shut down again but I don’t think a lot of the country would go for that. It would have to be a wave worse than we just went through. But also: I have no idea. 

 
Honestly, history is littered with companies who had good products but bad management. My opinion is that the management is almost as important as the product, even more so during a ramp up phase. Not feeling very confident in CYDY.  :(
Me either. The point of a call like that shouldn’t be to drive the stock lower and that’s all their calls seem to do. I’ve made a lot but feeling like I should sell if there’s any type of bump up.

 
Me either. The point of a call like that shouldn’t be to drive the stock lower and that’s all their calls seem to do. I’ve made a lot but feeling like I should sell if there’s any type of bump up.
They shouldn't have made it an after hours call.  They got people's hopes up.  So it seemed like it was a bad call when it was just a nothing burger call.

 
Me either. The point of a call like that shouldn’t be to drive the stock lower and that’s all their calls seem to do. I’ve made a lot but feeling like I should sell if there’s any type of bump up.
If I was a nicer guy, I would sell my CYDY and guarantee a run into the 6s.  

I joined the LK train and it got halted the next day.

 
They shouldn't have made it an after hours call.  They got people's hopes up.  So it seemed like it was a bad call when it was just a nothing burger call.
Well they did mention pursuing moving to the NYSE.  Doing something like that intra-hours would have led to different complaints.

 

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