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Stock Thread (19 Viewers)

Betterbelieveit said:
I am confused. Sorry. I have never dabbled in options until NERV. Not sure I will again for awhile as I need to gather a better education of these before I do. But right now my line looks like this. 

NERV 5.00 PUT

JUN 19, 2020

5 shares

2.50 last

+ 1.50 change

 $597.30 total g/L

$1,250.00 MKT value

Can anyone explain. Can I sell? Should I? Sorry for my lack of knowledge and I appreciate everyone's input here. 
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What did you sell the puts at?

Assuming it was around $1.20 that would mean you're in for a credit of 1.2 x 100 x 5 = $600.  So someone paid you $600 for those puts and you have that money in your account.

If you want to get out of the position you'd need to buy them back which would cost 2.5 * 100 * 5 = $1250.  So your total net on the trade would be $600 - $1250 = $650 loss.

Alternatively if you hold them, and the price goes up above $5 on June 19, the puts expire worthless and you keep the $600 as your profit.

If you hold and the price doesn't go above $5, you now own 500 shares at a cost of $5 each ($2500 total) and you have your $600 premium still.  From there you can either hold the shares and hope they go back up eventually or sell them at a loss.

 
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Thanks for the help gentlemen. It's what I figured but I need to stay in my lane when it comes to investing. Buy and sell stocks. Just looked too good. Thanks.

 
Betterbelieveit said:
I am confused. Sorry. I have never dabbled in options until NERV. Not sure I will again for awhile as I need to gather a better education of these before I do. But right now my line looks like this. 

NERV 5.00 PUT

JUN 19, 2020

5 shares

2.50 last

+ 1.50 change

 $597.30 total g/L

$1,250.00 MKT value

Can anyone explain. Can I sell? Should I? Sorry for my lack of knowledge and I appreciate everyone's input here. 
Click to expand...
Are you sure you didn't buy the puts?  If so, that explains why you are up.

 
Fed hasn't even started the MSLP. I suppose some of that is just it's much easier to go in and buy junk bond ETFs but also highlights how far ahead of itself this market is. I mean someone said most of the stimulus was targeted as SMIDs. While I'd probably disagree with that on the whole, this program which is I believe the biggest stimulus targeting SMIDs, hasn't even taken effect. Although will be interesting to see how many small caps or portfolio companies qualify under this when the intent seemed to be companies outside of the capital markets. 

Also, this chart is pretty telling - https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1266373586136121345

 
Good lord. Maybe I did. Like I said I need to stay in my lane. Let me take a look.

05/13/2020Bought To Open5NERV PutNERV Jun 19 2020 5.00 Put$1.30$2.50$0.20

Like I said never have done this so I really appreciate the help. I have invested for over 30 years and this is my first option trade. I feel like an idiot. So did I buy not sell? Man that would be awesome.

 
[icon] said:
Just took profits on DKNG. Up nice but I'm unsure on the rise being legit. I'm probably wrong. 

@Todem what are your thoughts on DFS right now? Big rise.. just got dropped to neutral/bearing ESS score. Good time to take profits? 
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This is Boomer thinking but I’ll say it anyway.

MGM is ~8B, Draftkings is $12B

i can’t get my head around the fact that if you look at Vegas revenue the order of revenue producing games always looks like this....

slots 100

blackjack 50

roulette/craps/other 25

sportsbook 5

and more and more the revenue is in the hotel/food/shows/conventions where it used to be loss leader.

So long story short the sportsbook is profitable but it is legitimately the lowest on the totem pole of gaming.  Some properties like Westgate and red rock will put a lot into the sportsbook to draw in people.

With MGM you get all the hotels and all the other revenues and get get all the other gaming.  You get exposure to China.  It has a solid balance sheet.

Draftkings you have a website.  It needs to partner up with local brick and mortar casinos to operate with states.  So from an overhead perspective it’s very low but you don’t have a lot of assets either and more importantly it’s all low margin sports betting.  Believe it or not there are Winning players in sports and Vegas can on occasion  lose with sports.  Not going to happen in volume with table games and slots.

draftkings is also fighting to get market share away from local bookies.  Draftkings you need to post the cash and ultimately because it’s so low Margin they will need to charge more than -110 on a bet (Wyoming lotteery is -120 of not more).  Draftkings needs to report all winners which means taxes.  Local bookies will extend credit so the player doesn’t have to post.  Vinny from the local bar doesn’t report to the IRS.

i think long term Draftkings valuation is way way too high at this point and time....... but I said the same about Facebook 1 month after it’s IPO (and I was right).

 
Betterbelieveit said:
Good lord. Maybe I did. Like I said I need to stay in my lane. Let me take a look.

05/13/2020Bought To Open5NERV PutNERV Jun 19 2020 5.00 Put$1.30$2.50$0.20

Like I said never have done this so I really appreciate the help. I have invested for over 30 years and this is my first option trade. I feel like an idiot. So did I buy not sell? Man that would be awesome.
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Winner winner chicken dinner. “Bought to open”. Congrats, you doubled your money. 

 
You all really have a lot of NERV hahaha sorry I’m just a dad making dad jokes trying to get by in this living hell of a world plz carry on 

 
Trump press conference on China at 2pm EST just announced.   Could definitely dictate the course of the markets action today.  Any predictions?  The market seems to be falling ahead of it—but Trump seems to love our markets.  I kinda lean towards thinking that he’ll do what he can to avoid tumbling the markets—but that’s nothing more than a guess. 

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Trump press conference on China at 2pm EST just announced.   Could definitely dictate the course of the markets action today.  Any predictions?  The market seems to be falling ahead of it—but Trump seems to love our markets.  I kinda lean towards thinking that he’ll do what he can to avoid tumbling the markets—but that’s nothing more than a guess. 
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As a percentage of GDP, 19.51 percent of our exports go to China.

This isn't good for the market.

 
The Ref said:
This is Boomer thinking but I’ll say it anyway.

MGM is ~8B, Draftkings is $12B

i can’t get my head around the fact that if you look at Vegas revenue the order of revenue producing games always looks like this....

slots 100

blackjack 50

roulette/craps/other 25

sportsbook 5

and more and more the revenue is in the hotel/food/shows/conventions where it used to be loss leader.

So long story short the sportsbook is profitable but it is legitimately the lowest on the totem pole of gaming.  Some properties like Westgate and red rock will put a lot into the sportsbook to draw in people.

With MGM you get all the hotels and all the other revenues and get get all the other gaming.  You get exposure to China.  It has a solid balance sheet.

Draftkings you have a website.  It needs to partner up with local brick and mortar casinos to operate with states.  So from an overhead perspective it’s very low but you don’t have a lot of assets either and more importantly it’s all low margin sports betting.  Believe it or not there are Winning players in sports and Vegas can on occasion  lose with sports.  Not going to happen in volume with table games and slots.

draftkings is also fighting to get market share away from local bookies.  Draftkings you need to post the cash and ultimately because it’s so low Margin they will need to charge more than -110 on a bet (Wyoming lotteery is -120 of not more).  Draftkings needs to report all winners which means taxes.  Local bookies will extend credit so the player doesn’t have to post.  Vinny from the local bar doesn’t report to the IRS.

i think long term Draftkings valuation is way way too high at this point and time....... but I said the same about Facebook 1 month after it’s IPO (and I was right).
Click to expand...
So, buy MGM? Honestly though, Draftkings makes things a lot more accesible to those weirdos who are not degenerate gamblers. It's going to need a ton of volume.

 
Betterbelieveit said:
Thanks guys. I really appreciate all of your help. I am still rooting for this for those of you in still. Sometimes it pays to be ignorant I guess.
Click to expand...
So when you buy puts you don't get paid a premium, you pay the premium.  You didn't notice the funds removed from your account when you opened the trade?  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Trump press conference on China at 2pm EST just announced.   Could definitely dictate the course of the markets action today.  Any predictions?  The market seems to be falling ahead of it—but Trump seems to love our markets.  I kinda lean towards thinking that he’ll do what he can to avoid tumbling the markets—but that’s nothing more than a guess. 
Click to expand...
As you said, he's not dumb enough to announce something that will tank the market during market hours. Friday at 5pm would have been a worse sign. I could see a small relief rally assuming he doesn't go full blown trade war on them. The one good thing for the market is that Trump is cognizant of it so he won't completely blow it up. I also view the administration like OPEC, whatever they say, I take with a huge grain of salt. I don't think he'll escalate into a full blown trade war but I also don't think the relationship will all of a sudden fix itself. 

If I had to guess, he'll come out with some rhetoric and threats but soft on actual policies. I could see them push the whole on-shoring or re-shoring thing. So maybe buy some domestic focused manufacturing stocks and sell some MNC techs? But not really trying to trade around this. 

 
Yes but as I said I am really not versed in options so I didn't understand my position. Again my own ignorance. Just dumb luck I guess. It was such a small position I didn't take the time to do my own research.

 
Betterbelieveit said:
Yes but as I said I am really not versed in options so I didn't understand my position. Again my own ignorance. Just dumb luck I guess. It was such a small position I didn't take the time to do my own research.
Click to expand...
...and then do the opposite. .....Costanza!!!!!!

My dad at 94 is trading stocks.  :shock:  Says he's gonna "gamble". So he buys MRO. $25k worth. Doesn't realize it went thru so puts it in again and now has $50000. Freaks as its near end of day. can't get sell in. Puts in after market at a higher price. Hits big for an $8000 win on 1/2 of it. Sells the other half weeks later for another $7000 win.

Costanza!!!!!!

 
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Betterbelieveit said:
Yes but as I said I am really not versed in options so I didn't understand my position. Again my own ignorance. Just dumb luck I guess. It was such a small position I didn't take the time to do my own research.
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Yeah, this is a reason I'm boring. 

Buy stuff I like, sell sometimes. Buy more stuff I like. 

Options could be fun and potentially pay for that lake house, but I'm the tortoise.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Trump press conference on China at 2pm EST just announced.   Could definitely dictate the course of the markets action today.  Any predictions?  The market seems to be falling ahead of it—but Trump seems to love our markets.  I kinda lean towards thinking that he’ll do what he can to avoid tumbling the markets—but that’s nothing more than a guess. 
Click to expand...
Depends entirely on whether his family shorted the S&P or not.

On the bolded, this is true but he also like to hammer on China, so it depends on whether his love of the market going up outweighs his love for bashing China during the seconds leading up to the podium.

 
McBokonon said:
Depends entirely on whether his family shorted the S&P or not.

On the bolded, this is true but he also like to hammer on China, so it depends on whether his love of the market going up outweighs his love for bashing China during the seconds leading up to the podium.
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Not at all out of the realm of possibilities. That's family & friends. His twitter account is programmed into the market computers.

 
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TripItUp said:
As a percentage of GDP, 19.51 percent of our exports go to China.

This isn't good for the market.
Click to expand...
This is a good point. I couldn’t sleep last night and I’ll sometimes listen to the networks that cover the international markets when that happens.   There was some economic professor that was being interviewed that was worried that things seemed to be moving towards a “decoupling” of the Chinese and American economies.  He was saying that most of the public seems to think that the biggest concern is the trade defecit—but that this de-coupling is a bigger concern.   He claimed that de-listing Chinese stocks in our markets is a step towards that, and what China is doing to Hong Kong is a response that massively hurts a lot of a American companies.  He said the next step could be the notion that american companies might not be allowed to sell components to Chinese tech companies—-and basically this back and forth will continue on—until it becomes clear which country feels the most pain.  His concern for the American side of things is that the bread and butter companies that tend to propel our markets are cutting edge tech companies that make great components and products.   He estimates that forty percent of these companies profits come from selling their products to China.  I honestly don’t know enough to have an opinion either way on this train of thought—but I did think it was interesting and something worth digesting.  

 
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sporthenry said:
As you said, he's not dumb enough to announce something that will tank the market during market hours. Friday at 5pm would have been a worse sign. I could see a small relief rally assuming he doesn't go full blown trade war on them. The one good thing for the market is that Trump is cognizant of it so he won't completely blow it up. I also view the administration like OPEC, whatever they say, I take with a huge grain of salt. I don't think he'll escalate into a full blown trade war but I also don't think the relationship will all of a sudden fix itself. 

If I had to guess, he'll come out with some rhetoric and threats but soft on actual policies. I could see them push the whole on-shoring or re-shoring thing. So maybe buy some domestic focused manufacturing stocks and sell some MNC techs? But not really trying to trade around this. 
Click to expand...
Threat of sanctions in response to the Hong Kong situation I bet.

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
Threat of sanctions in response to the Hong Kong situation I bet.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I mean the threat is different than actual sanctions. At the same time, this market is fragile so who knows, it might not take much to tip it over. My trade and thesis isn't predicated on this. If Trump wants to help and escalate things, I won't complain. I also think CNBC and all the talking heads need or want to simplify up or down days to one thing when it is usually a multitude of factors. 

With the algos and risk parity accounts, any of these moves can be exacerbated in the near-term. Few, if any, talked about how the risk parity trade failed spectacularly in March and that is why every single asset went down. I suppose on the flip side, you could chalk this all up to the Fed's b/s. But CNBC doesn't want to talk about that either. 

 
BassNBrew said:
I resemble that remark.  In and out of NERV for a gain of 30% in the time it took me to drive from home to the office.
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🥵I had the order tee'd up at $3.05 while catching up on this thread, but didn't have the balls (a reoccurring theme) to pull the trigger. I look up like 20 minutes later and it's $3.74. FML. 

 
skycriesmary said:
🥵I had the order tee'd up at $3.05 while catching up on this thread, but didn't have the balls (a reoccurring theme) to pull the trigger. I look up like 20 minutes later and it's $3.74. FML. 
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Well I sold my Lowes pre-market because it seems to always go for a premium there and open lower.  It was $2 lower at open but the bid/ask spread was 15 cents so I dicked around with a limit order.  Got nothing and now it's over where I sold it at.

 
I don't know about you guys, but I'm tingling with anticipation. There's not much going on in the Wagering thread right now for obvious reasons, so waiting to see what this impulsive grievance machine is going to get up and there say has me creating watch-lists like a fiend. Where will the markets go? Stay tuned! :excited:

 
Don Hutson said:
New Nader video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gf5tQpXLuCY
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I sold for a profit, so thank you @chet

I give Nader credit for making a better sales effort here as well.

Having said that... you cant even listen to this guy.  It isn't just his accent.  It is the poor video/audio quality (someone buy this guy a new laptop/camera), his lack of organized thoughts and therefore lack of organized message, it just jumps all over.

Give this guy some note cards.  Tell him to use them.

 
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