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Stock Thread (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Yep, the only way to make money right now in IPOs is hope people are more insane and day trade or get lucky and get allocated some shares. DoorDash has 145/150 bid and ask. That’s a $60B market cap. Anyone that holds that long term will lose a large percentage. There isn’t and IPO where I was more sure of failure.
As I mentioned before this is a gigantic bat signal to me. MDB (sorry, ROKU deserves some love too) thankfully keeping me above market but these IPOs are scaring me a bit because it seems universally euphoric.
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Bamboo Bill
Footballguy
Jumping on CLSK - CleanSpark.
cosjobs
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
How are you guys getting in limit orders. Either I'm doing something wrong or Fidelity doesn't recognize this.
TripItUp
Footballguy
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Was lucky enough to get in at. $3.05 back in July. Most likely someone in here mentioned it.
Yep, it’s a point where investing is basically a casino. These stocks lately have become detached from reality and it will come crashing down at some point.
It’s not even all stocks, I couldn’t imagine what some of the marquee stocks of the past year would demand if they IPO’d this week. I know SharkNZima kids about Amazon but it does almost feel like some stocks are just lethargic because they aren’t the next new thing.
DoorDash may live longer solely because they are getting a cash infusion way above their true value. Don’t be shocked if they do a secondary and tertiary offerings next week. Why wouldn’t they in this mania?
kevzilla
Footballguy
CR69
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Lomez
Footballguy
Yep. Opened at $180, which by my calculations means a market cap of $78B.
CMG $37B
DPZ $15B
It’s worth 70% of ZM. It’s worth 60% more than PLTR. Heck it’s worth almost as UBER by itself. Lol.
PT Barnum was right. There’s a sucker born every minute. This stock is a proverbial boat anchor. Just noticed that Cramer basically endorsed them and then added that he hopes investors aren’t hurt chasing gains. SMH.
By the way, if a used Camry is say $15k. You could sell DASH and buy 5.2M cars for delivery. There are less than 700k restaurants in the US. So, you can invest in DASH or buy every restaurant in the US eight used Camrys.
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ericttspikes
Footballguy
Having been an investor in several boom/bust cycles in my life, I've always felt the market is a casino. As far as being detached from reality at this point in time, maybe there are reasons for it that hasn't existed in the past? One of the biggest differences I see is that there isn't any yield on cash anymore, none. The CD rate from the 1980's to today has been a ski slope downward. My "safe" short term bond fund that in the past protected me from downside risk actually went negative on the last downturn and is basically worthless to build wealth to the point I'm not really sure what the value is in holding it. It could be argued that "safe haven" investments like gold and now crypto are inherently detached from reality. $1800 for a rock? $18,000 for a series of 1's and 0's? Ok. The only thing justifying their price is supply and demand, which is kind like the same thing with equities. I get it. Things are crazy on a traditional "value" level now, but I'm not sure there really is any other game in town to build wealth. I've dabbled in real estate and have never gotten returns like I have in the market. Never invested in art, but that seems even more arbitrary than stocks.
I do agree that things moving now are mostly sizzle, but that's part of the game. I have been buying some sizzle and moving returns into steak. I love that AMZN is basically flat for 8 months and have taken most of my profits from risky trades and increased positions in mature growth stocks like ADBE, APPL, AMZN. Would rather park money there than my bond fund at this point. But your are right, the music will stop at some point as it always has in the past and portfolio make up will determine the short term losses, but as always, things will turn back around.
beef
Footballguy
Lomez
Footballguy
I’m a believer. RH and retail investors surely can’t keep driving some of these crazy stocks, can they?
DoorDash, not a very high margin business like software, has a 40 price to sales ratio, about the same as ZM. ZM is growing way faster and has way higher high margin earnings potential.
I was laughing at a Wired article (written way before this ridiculous) that said DoorDash showed how they could be profitable because of the pandemic. Get this, they earned $23M in the April to June period. So, considering this was the most optimal time period they would ever see, their P/E, even giving them credit by annualizing that profit, would be 848, in the best environment they could have.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
UVXY = $11.00
Bamboo Bill
Footballguy
See my post above. I definitely agree that there are similar circumstances but the valuations seem way more extreme. I do think that CV/WFH, RH, stimulus (free money for a ton of people not affected) and lack of sports did actually create a much larger pool of retail investors. Couple those with instant news compared to say the dot com mania of the late 90s/2000-2001, inflated prices even more.
Just thinking we may have peaked. I remember the dot com implosion and it started with MicroStrategy, the current Bitcoin darling, fudging their numbers followed by the dominoes of Enron and Worldcom. I’m not saying there’s fraud like LK, but it does say something that DoorDash is valued as much as handing every restaurant in the US $120k or 8 $15k Camrys. AirBnB timed their IPO well post vaccines. One would think DoorDash missed their best window and yet they opened at 4x their original pricing window that doubled.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
There are lot of interesting comparisons here. Read today that Apple and Taiwan Semiconductor are working on a car with self driving technology themselves. An AppleCar or iCar is fun to think about. Just like software really drives the competition on phones, I wonder how fragmented that market will be for cars.stbugs said:
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Thanks for the tip. I've been doing some gain taking and looking for more SPACs near NAV. Not sure if @drunken slob ever posted a list of when he was researching a couple weeks ago.
drunken slob
Footballguy
I made a list. I got drunk. I lost it.
I've been looking for it since last week with no joy so far. It will turn up here in the next few days, I hope.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
No idea, it’s going to be a little crazy but that’s why I scoffed at some of those Tesla can be worth $7T presentations. They were made as if nothing else existed and didn’t even toy with the idea that something better would come out. There are going to be a massive amount of losers. QS is already worth almost $30B. I wouldn’t be shocked if they are the #1 automotive supplier by market cap.
I don’t think all the new investors have any inkling about former markets with tons of high fliers like search engines. None of the initial companies won. Google came along a few years later and blew everything else away. Many billions of dollars went to zero. I recall many $5-10B B2B companies that are worthless today.
It’ll be an interesting few years in the market, that’s for sure.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
The pandemic might be the peak for human deliveries but we're on the brink of deliveries being done by robots/drones/rc cars/ev cars/tech. It's going to eliminate most of the delivery cost for the delivery companies. The companies won't have to deal with dudes named Chad working for them and you won't have Chad on your doorstep delivering to you. R2D2 delivering for 50 cents instead of Chad delivering for $5 and wanting a tip. The number of deliveries will skyrocket. I don't know if DoorDash is primed to excel in humanless deliveries but the delivery sector as a whole is growing to grow exponentially.
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Lomez
Footballguy
What's "the brink"? I still don't think infrastructure supports fully autonomous for at least a decade. Amazon, despite getting FAA approval for drone delivery, still isn't (afaik. Been a couple of months since I checked) actually using drones for delivery. And if they aren't able to figure out how to make it work, I'm not likely to place my faith in DoorDash managing to do so. And if they are able to, there's going to be an investment in CapEx to make that happen. And ongoing costs to support it. It's not going to be free. So how much are they going to be able to recover? And how quickly? And with what kind of margins, given the competition in this area? Does it quickly become a brokerage-esque race to the bottom?
On the plus side, for a company like this, the best-case scenario might be what they needed to both gain an infusion of cash that lets them execute on some of their plans AND lets them know what scalability looks like and how to execute on a go-forward basis.
I still don't think I'd touch it.
