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Man, I missed a turnaround today, just so ####### busy at work :kicksrock:

I like AMZN blasting Trump in the face today too :thumbup:

 
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If I were Bezos, I'd have all the Trump novelty #### sold through Amazon on clearance tomorrow and declare a "Trump's $.02 Sale".

But I'm a big believer in spite, so...

 
I bought MU before earnings and tripled my position today.  Average share price $53.80.  They beat top and bottom on earnings and raised guidance, but everything around them was terrible for semi and I imagine a lot of profit taking this week before fund quarters end.  China tariff, crypto down big, autonomous car fiasco all not good.  

Also, bitcoin on the verge of trading below $7,000 after hours right now. 
I think the recent downturn on MU ended today. Calls would’ve been a good buy today too. 

 
Trying to figure out what causes the final washout, here’s what I think will do it; China news/tariffs. That has been swept under the rug this week... Think we’ll get some news next week, it’ll all be part of the negotiation, but it will cause the other shoe to drop. If that does happen, I’ve got a list I’m buying on that fear that’s ready to go
:coffee:

 
Looked at charts & did some reading for a few hours tonight.

I like how a lot of this is being set up right now, I just don’t think we’ve hit the end of the aggressive selling we’ve seen for the last two weeks. Market is closed Friday, so I’ve been looking at a game plan.

Trying to figure out what causes the final washout, here’s what I think will do it; China news/tariffs. That has been swept under the rug this week... Think we’ll get some news next week, it’ll all be part of the negotiation, but it will cause the other shoe to drop. If that does happen, I’ve got a list I’m buying on that fear that’s ready to go:

MSFT AMZN NVDA JPM NFLX SHOP FB BA GD TVIX (possibly, need to think a little more about this one... Would be a short position, and small. BUT, if you short this near the end of this route, it’s 50% gain relatively quickly... & again, small position)

If timed even half decently, I think the above group can get me 20% within 12 months. 

I’ve got a few plans in place, this is the one I’m hoping on. 
HERE WE GO!

As the former Price is Right game show hose, the late Bob Barker use to say ... "Come on down!"

(or maybe he's not dead yet)

 
Sometime in late summer / early fall, I moved my government TSP account from the "stock fund" to the "securities fund."  I can't remember what the DOW was at the time.  20,000 maybe?  I'm really at a loss what to do.  I kinda want to ride it out a little bit because I think that we have farther down to go.  But who knows.  At *some* point I really need to get back in.  Right?  Right?

 
Until we get some clarity on trade, I think this is the new normal.

Friday we get the April NFP. If that doesn't come in hot and we can just calm this trade noise down over the week, could mark for a good entrance point heading into earnings. See how this all shakes out over the week.

 
@General Malaise I'm thinking about buying a bit more Cobalt on this dip. What is it's kryptonite? I'm wondering if this might be more bear market tolerant as it's trading on the commodity itself.
If the market punishes KBLT, it gets closer to par on its NAV.  The metal is doing just fine, so were I permitted to buy KBLT here, I would.  I can't.  So I bought 5K shares of eCobalt, which is a joke of a company, but will be staked to higher cobalt prices, which are forthcoming.  

 
Anyone have anything they're looking at adding? 

I gave my list last week, haven't done anything, but might make some moves if the Nasdaq gets near the 200DMA. 

 
Anyone have anything they're looking at adding? 

I gave my list last week, haven't done anything, but might make some moves if the Nasdaq gets near the 200DMA. 
Added ARRY and ATRS just now. Both biotechs. ARRY is a lot less risky since they have a solid pipeline. They have a PDUFA date of 6/30/2018 and should see a bump prior to that since they have a solid track record of approvals and are a bit beat up in price.

ATRS has actual revenues and is more than a one trick pony as well, but is riskier. They need a little help from TEVA to really jump, but they should see a pop when they announce the refiling of a drug app after receiving word they dont need to do further studies, just further analysis, for resubmitting their application that received a CRL in october. 

Both took big dips today without any bad news.  

 
Added ARRY and ATRS just now. Both biotechs. ARRY is a lot less risky since they have a solid pipeline. They have a PDUFA date of 6/30/2018 and should see a bump prior to that since they have a solid track record of approvals and are a bit beat up in price.

ATRS has actual revenues and is more than a one trick pony as well, but is riskier. They need a little help from TEVA to really jump, but they should see a pop when they announce the refiling of a drug app after receiving word they dont need to do further studies, just further analysis, for resubmitting their application that received a CRL in october. 

Both took big dips today without any bad news.  
IBB (biotech ETF) has been getting killed - I've had it on my radar too. 

 
@siffoin

Curious, when you're looking at charts and trend flips, what type of criteria do you use to try to get an early look? 

I guess, what I'm getting at, is increased volatility typically a precursor when you look at trends changing? 

 
Kinda a catch 22 for Trump - he obviously hates Amazon and would love to tank their stock, but he loves the stock market and it is pretty hard to tank AMZN without it taking everything down with it. 
Well my theory is that he knows he’ll be in a jail cell so why not burn it all down and go out in a blaze of glory and make everyone else suffer too. But who knows ...

 
@siffoin

Curious, when you're looking at charts and trend flips, what type of criteria do you use to try to get an early look? 

I guess, what I'm getting at, is increased volatility typically a precursor when you look at trends changing? 
I guess your asking about longer term time frames?  The answer would be YES.  LT trends take multiple months to flip.  It's possible we are in a transition period right now.  In time of transition (lets call it a Yellow Light Market), I'd lean to being a bit more conservative with LT investments - waiting for confirmation of a trend one way or the other.  I'm amused at  people who say "you can't time the market", often try to do just that. I try to time the trend.

 
I guess your asking about longer term time frames?  The answer would be YES.  LT trends take multiple months to flip.  It's possible we are in a transition period right now.  In time of transition (lets call it a Yellow Light Market), I'd lean to being a bit more conservative with LT investments - waiting for confirmation of a trend one way or the other.  I'm amused at  people who say "you can't time the market", often try to do just that. I try to time the trend.
This is kinda where I am at right now - trying to figure out if we're nearing the end of this bull market and we're flipping over in 2018 or we're just getting some noise and a buying opportunity. I've been leaning towards the latter, but I'm starting to question that a little. 

Feel like a lot of the 2018/2019 growth was priced in and now to justify the trend continuing we need to start looking more at 2019/2020 growth and I'm starting to grow a little skeptical of that. Even after Feb/March, we're still priced with a lot of optimism. 

As the poet Mike Tyson once said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. Trying to come up with my plan and my other plan after I get punched in the face.

 
What I don’t understand is why the market takes trump seriously re: Amazon. Everybody knows he’s a buffoon who clearly is full of ####. Why the overreaction? I get the power of the position, but it’s still all a farce. 

 
What I don’t understand is why the market takes trump seriously re: Amazon. Everybody knows he’s a buffoon who clearly is full of ####. Why the overreaction? I get the power of the position, but it’s still all a farce. 
:shrug:

According to sources, Trump wants the Post Office to increase Amazon’s shipping costs. When Trump previously discussed the idea inside the White Hose, Gary Cohn had explained that Amazon is a benefit to the Postal Service, which has seen mail volume plummet in the age of e-mail. “Trump doesn’t have Gary Cohn breathing down his neck saying you can’t do the Post Office ####,” a Republican close to the White House said. “He really wants the Post Office deal renegotiated. He thinks Amazon’s getting a huge ####### deal on shipping.”

Advisers are also encouraging Trump to cancel Amazon’s multi-billion contract with the Pentagon to provide cloud computing services, sources say. Another line of attack would be to encourage attorneys general in red states to open investigations into Amazon’s business practices. Sources say Trump is open to the ideas. (The White House did not respond to a request for comment.)

 
What I don’t understand is why the market takes trump seriously re: Amazon. Everybody knows he’s a buffoon who clearly is full of ####. Why the overreaction? I get the power of the position, but it’s still all a farce. 
He does have power, unfortunately. While his impact at the end of the day is unknown, he can put wheels in motion that may or may not impact their business.

Amazon is a super crowded trade, every fund is overweight AMZN, read the quote from earlier - if everyone already owns it, the upward pressure lightens and the opposite happens when people get scared, exacerbating the pressure downwards and the race for the exits.

 
He does have power, unfortunately. While his impact at the end of the day is unknown, he can put wheels in motion that may or may not impact their business.

Amazon is a super crowded trade, every fund is overweight AMZN, read the quote from earlier - if everyone already owns it, the upward pressure lightens and the opposite happens when people get scared, exacerbating the pressure downwards and the race for the exits.
Oh, the power, this ###-clown wields....

Edited as ###-Clown needs to be broken up. :loco:

 
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He does have power, unfortunately. While his impact at the end of the day is unknown, he can put wheels in motion that may or may not impact their business.

Amazon is a super crowded trade, every fund is overweight AMZN, read the quote from earlier - if everyone already owns it, the upward pressure lightens and the opposite happens when people get scared, exacerbating the pressure downwards and the race for the exits.
Exactly.   One can make a very compelling argument that this stock is overbought by a large margin. 

 
Amazon was at +2.10% and trump just tweeted. Down to +.50. Will be interesting to see if the market fights back at all. 

 
What I don’t understand is why the market takes trump seriously re: Amazon. Everybody knows he’s a buffoon who clearly is full of ####. Why the overreaction? I get the power of the position, but it’s still all a farce. 
Now, according to four sources close to the White House, Trump is discussing ways to escalate his Twitter attacks on Amazon to further damage the company. “He’s off the hook on this. It’s war,” one source told me. “He gets obsessed with something, and now he’s obsessed with Bezos,” said another source. “Trump is like, how can I #### with him?”





According to sources, Trump wants the Post Office to increase Amazon’s shipping costs. When Trump previously discussed the idea inside the White Hose, Gary Cohn had explained that Amazon is a benefit to the Postal Service, which has seen mail volume plummet in the age of e-mail. “Trump doesn’t have Gary Cohn breathing down his neck saying you can’t do the Post Office ####,” a Republican close to the White House said. “He really wants the Post Office deal renegotiated. He thinks Amazon’s getting a huge ####### deal on shipping.”





Advisers are also encouraging Trump to cancel Amazon’s multi-billion contract with the Pentagon to provide cloud computing services, sources say. Another line of attack would be to encourage attorneys general in red states to open investigations into Amazon’s business practices. Sources say Trump is open to the ideas. (The White House did not respond to a request for comment.)


https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/trump-war-with-amazon-and-the-washington-post-is-personal

 
Added ARRY and ATRS just now. Both biotechs. ARRY is a lot less risky since they have a solid pipeline. They have a PDUFA date of 6/30/2018 and should see a bump prior to that since they have a solid track record of approvals and are a bit beat up in price.

ATRS has actual revenues and is more than a one trick pony as well, but is riskier. They need a little help from TEVA to really jump, but they should see a pop when they announce the refiling of a drug app after receiving word they dont need to do further studies, just further analysis, for resubmitting their application that received a CRL in october. 

Both took big dips today without any bad news.  
Just added 200 ARRY. I've been eyeing them for awhile too. Good chance of a bump back up to $17-18 before earnings.

 
Anyone have anything they're looking at adding? 

I gave my list last week, haven't done anything, but might make some moves if the Nasdaq gets near the 200DMA. 
I've copied your list. Still not seeing any real bargains (other than amzn / fb).

Got an order in on msft that is close to triggering.

another order in for nflx that looks like it might make it today ... unfortunately I bought nflx at it's peak and quickly sold at a loss at $316 when it was falling on it's face. I'll get my shares back for cheap now, buy and hold. Earnings due out in 2 weeks so maybe trending up soon?

 
I've copied your list. Still not seeing any real bargains (other than amzn / fb).

Got an order in on msft that is close to triggering.

another order in for nflx that looks like it might make it today ... unfortunately I bought nflx at it's peak and quickly sold at a loss at $316 when it was falling on it's face. I'll get my shares back for cheap now, buy and hold. Earnings due out in 2 weeks so maybe trending up soon?
I'm still waiting on most. I'm waiting for a washout.

AMZN is such a good company and our idiot POTUS is determined to hang a cloud over them, so frustrating.

 
I bought more amazon yesterday. I hate myself for it but I couldn’t ignore the price. That said, I am ready to dump if it totally goes off a cliff. I hate this. 

 
Anybody ever look at this site? I glance at it occasionally but have never paid attention to whether it has any accuracy or not. Has amazon at 1900 by the end of the year. 

https://longforecast.com/amazon-share-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019
Great stuff.  I appreciate you posting that.  How accurate were the predictions over the past 3 months; past year?  I'll come right out and say it.  I'm not very good at predicting the future whether that be an hour from now+.  So if someone can predict it with any level of accuracy 2+ years out, color me interested.  Can we go back and look at their historical predictions and see how it did in 2006-09; 2011; 2015-16?

 
Great stuff.  I appreciate you posting that.  How accurate were the predictions over the past 3 months; past year?  I'll come right out and say it.  I'm not very good at predicting the future whether that be an hour from now+.  So if someone can predict it with any level of accuracy 2+ years out, color me interested.  Can we go back and look at their historical predictions and see how it did in 2006-09; 2011; 2015-16?
I don’t see that info on their site. There is a contact us button I may send a message to tonight. 

As for now, I jotted down their close numbers for the rest of the year. I’ll update on the last day of each month. 

 
Predictions in a stable environment are tough enough.  We have a President who moves the market in 280 character bursts, and even the people who are supposed to be advising him have no idea wtf he's going to do next.  Predicting anything in that kind of environment seems nigh impossible.

 

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