Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
I thought these charts showing historical S&P reactions for past events:pecorino said:Like I said: Slo-mo recession
Post 2-10 Yield Curve Inversion
Post Recession Start
I thought these charts showing historical S&P reactions for past events:pecorino said:Like I said: Slo-mo recession
Less poor than a few days ago and less rich than a few weeks agoculdeus said:update?
I earn my money the old fashioned way ....culdeus said:update?
Just covered my TVIX short from Wednesday. Another $1k in profit.I earn my money the old fashioned way ....
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shorting TVIX
I've been playing with covered calls for 2019 and just enabled puts and calls.Just covered my TVIX short from Wednesday. Another $1k in profit.
That stuff is like a money printing machine .... once you figure out which buttons to press.
I haven't got the minerals to play for the big money yet .... but I'm still having a blast!
How are you guys doing with your t-bills and savings bonds?
The TMF/UPRO combo i talked about a while back has been .How are you guys doing with your t-bills and savings bonds?
Do you ever change the ratio? Do you leave the amount bought in for a set period of time, or buy and sell determining on market factors?The TMF/UPRO combo i talked about a while back has been .
I am just holding. Rebalance quarterly, which seems to work as well as anything else. Guys in there have done simulations and come up with some pretty frequent rebalances based on volatility lookbacks. Their results seems pretty brittle and transaction costs are high, so not going there.Do you ever change the ratio? Do you leave the amount bought in for a set period of time, or buy and sell determining on market factors?
I don't even think with tvix you can get completely feltedI am just holding. Rebalance quarterly, which seems to work as well as anything else. Guys in there have done simulations and come up with some pretty frequent rebalances based on volatility lookbacks. Their results seems pretty brittle and transaction costs are high, so not going there.
Now, if we look recession-ish I will take a hard look and may well go to TMF/IEF or something similar. I'll figure that out when it comes around. This is a gamble, anyway, so why not.
I regard this as as about as volatile as the TVIX players so, you know, caveat emptor.
Let’s not get cocky.Well that recession was fun. Dunno if it's one we'll be telling the grandkids about, but hey, whatcha gonna do.
This "blow up for six months, have a four day recession" ride is certainly fun. I need to remember to keep enough cash on hand for the next one. Maybe next February?
How about today?Well that recession was fun. Dunno if it's one we'll be telling the grandkids about, but hey, whatcha gonna do.
This "blow up for six months, have a four day recession" ride is certainly fun. I need to remember to keep enough cash on hand for the next one. Maybe next February?
I'd argue that the market has been ignoring him for the most part. The threats aren't empty, they very well may drive us into recession.Can’t believe the market doesn’t just ignore this guy. Empty threats. So frustrating.
$ATFKYCan I just give up and plow everything into guns booze and lube?
I may have miscalculated here...Bought some AAPL 207.5 8/30 calls right before close. I have faith that our great orange lord will tweet some sort of inanity to make up for today.
... and we're rich again.update?
Think it has to do with bonds looking so unattractive. There's something like 17 Trillion in negative yielding sovereign debt right now. If I'm parking cash, bonds are a lot less attractive than even 6 months ago.Something has to give. Stocks are back up but silver is up ~$3 since June, gold is up $200 in that time.
Are people moving their money to commodities for "stability" as the market is a roller coaster? Both can't go up, up, up. Which floor will fall?
Something has to give. Stocks are back up but silver is up ~$3 since June, gold is up $200 in that time.
Are people moving their money to commodities for "stability" as the market is a roller coaster? Both can't go up, up, up. Which floor will fall?
I think @Gawain has it. While you can still get yield in U.S., there are many countries that one can't; those investors are bidding up gold/silver as a means to at least break even on their savings. The For example, Asian currencies have been very weak against the USD so I'd bet a lot of metals are bid in those markets. There are many "experts" that also see negative yields as a good possibility in U.S. as well...tbd but our bonds will be in favor plenty (also adding to lower rates here).Think it has to do with bonds looking so unattractive. There's something like 17 Trillion in negative yielding sovereign debt right now. If I'm parking cash, bonds are a lot less attractive than even 6 months ago.
Another week, another $1k shorting TVIX.... and we're rich again.
Anyone else here shorting TVIX? ... just me?
About to sure up another tidy profit. Today or tomorrow depending on how patient I can be.
It's been almost a month since I posted this--and so far this trade has been really solid for me. I do think that long term gold/silver/cryptos all have lots of room to still go up--but I do think there will be some profit taking coming up here soon. Anybody else that has been investing in gold/silver care to comment on their short term strategy? I'm thinking that I might want to take some profits and buy some back on the next profit taking dip.While I think there will be moments of turbulence and profit taking ahead---the trend of volatility and dilution in global currencies really makes me think that gold/silver/ select cryptos have a lot of available room left to run up. I've been buying gold and silver for a while--and I did end up very mildly investing in some cryptos earlier this year.
I've been thinking the same, as I'm up about 50% in GDX over the last eight months or so. Unfortunately, I only had a few thousand in it to begin with. I might take half off here soon, and jump back in on a dip. If the dip doesn't happen, lesson learned.It's been almost a month since I posted this--and so far this trade has been really solid for me. I do think that long term gold/silver/cryptos all have lots of room to still go up--but I do think there will be some profit taking coming up here soon. Anybody else that has been investing in gold/silver care to comment on their short term strategy? I'm thinking that I might want to take some profits and buy some back on the next profit taking dip.
I do not. I currently own two stocks under a buck, 2,000 shares of MENEF (a precious metal jeweler) and 1,500 shares of MLSS (a medical device company).SFBayDuck said:Anybody own MCOA? It's up 5,900%......today. Looks like I picked the wrong marijuana penny stocks.
Sold some of my gold and some of my silver yesterday and it looks like I timed things well. I don't trust todays rally a lick and I hope gold and silver drop more in the upcoming days. China agreeing to trade talks a month from now is possibly one of the most bogus reasons to propel a rally that I have ever heard of. They have talked before--and nothing has come from it. Not only that--why would China make sacrifices to an administration that might not even be in power in a little over a year? This to me smells like when a historically average or below average player has a random great game and fantasy owners scramble to sign him off the waiver wire and chase points that will never get repeated again. I'm not chasing todays stock rally--but I do hope that it continues so that I can get back into more gold and silver at better prices.It's been almost a month since I posted this--and so far this trade has been really solid for me. I do think that long term gold/silver/cryptos all have lots of room to still go up--but I do think there will be some profit taking coming up here soon. Anybody else that has been investing in gold/silver care to comment on their short term strategy? I'm thinking that I might want to take some profits and buy some back on the next profit taking dip.
I'm long term hold on precious metals.Sold some of my gold and some of my silver yesterday and it looks like I timed things well. I don't trust todays rally a lick and I hope gold and silver drop more in the upcoming days. China agreeing to trade talks a month from now is possibly one of the most bogus reasons to propel a rally that I have ever heard of. They have talked before--and nothing has come from it. Not only that--why would China make sacrifices to an administration that might not even be in power in a little over a year? This to me smells like when a historically average or below average player has a random great game and fantasy owners scramble to sign him off the waiver wire and chase points that will never get repeated again. I'm not chasing todays stock rally--but I do hope that it continues so that I can get back into more gold and silver at better prices.
I'm in this situation now trying to figure out what to do with my grandfather's silver hoarde. It's pretty much a pain in the ###.I'm long term hold on precious metals.
In a perfect world my kids will have to decide what to do with my holdings.
This. Don't turn your liquid savings into a literal rock sitting in your house.I'm in this situation now trying to figure out what to do with my grandfather's silver hoarde. It's pretty much a pain in the ###.
Step up basis should mean if you're liquidating close after death you're not getting hit with a major tax bill.The biggest pain in the ### about holding a bunch of precious metals is you'd think you could maybe skirt some taxes, but they have a hard cap on what you can deal in at coin stores and gold/silver pawns before giving you what amounts to a 1099. So you are left with taking 75c on the dollar or every once in awhile showing someone bags and bags of coins and pretending to be a pirate.
Let's say you have $10k in green cash or $10k in silver today that you are storing in a safe. Which one do you think will be worth far more in 10 years? Complaining about precious metals being annoying to own is a truly a first world problem.The biggest pain in the ### about holding a bunch of precious metals is you'd think you could maybe skirt some taxes, but they have a hard cap on what you can deal in at coin stores and gold/silver pawns before giving you what amounts to a 1099. So you are left with taking 75c on the dollar or every once in awhile showing someone bags and bags of coins and pretending to be a pirate.
The collection consisted of some super premium items that went moon, and some #### that didn't. The collection had a way of increasing in quality later and quantity first.Step up basis should mean if you're liquidating close after death you're not getting hit with a major tax bill.
I think we talked about a couple of his coins a few years ago (did he have a Pan Pac $50?)
I'm surprised that you didn't move silver when you went through some of the heavy hitters.
Owning metals is stupid. If you want something like that go out and get 2-3 of the most expensive possible coins you could ever afford and stash them. The overwhelming majority of this stuff was bought in the mid 80s after the crash. Enough money was dumped into this junk stuff that had it been in the market would be worth >1M easy. It's worth at best maybe like 30k today in melt. The real stuff, well that's a different story.Let's say you have $10k in green cash or $10k in silver today that you are storing in a safe. Which one do you think will be worth far more in 10 years? Complaining about precious metals being annoying to own is a truly a first world problem.
Agree to disagree. Precious metals are an asset class that should be a part of a well diversified portfolio. You don't own precious metals to get rich--you own them as part of your portfolio to carry you through turbulent waters to stop from going poor. Nobody here is saying to dump all of your money into precious metals--that would be irresponsible. This is a stock thread--which means that most people in here own stocks, probalby some real estate, and most likely other assets as well. All we can do is look forward and speculate if the economic waters look smooth ahead or if they look turbulent. Several countries have already messed with their currencies and interest rates. There is domestic and global unrest--and the prospect of a trade war(s) is real. The amount of global sovern debt is growing exponentially. People aren't gaining confidence in government issued currency--they are losing confidence in it. Precious metals are an insurance policy for your primary assets--they aren't intended to BE your primary assets. Much like most any insurance policies--everybody should have one--but you hope to never have to use them. If you think that people protecting their investments is stupid--thats totally a cool and fine opinion--but we'll just have to agree to disagree.Owning metals is stupid. If you want something like that go out and get 2-3 of the most expensive possible coins you could ever afford and stash them. The overwhelming majority of this stuff was bought in the mid 80s after the crash. Enough money was dumped into this junk stuff that had it been in the market would be worth >1M easy. It's worth at best maybe like 30k today in melt. The real stuff, well that's a different story.
I just think buying a bunch of this crap and putting it in a vault is dumb, there are ETF that are reasonable to own for this now. I also think that if the SHTF nobody will trade in silver and gold, it will be bullets and penicillin.Agree to disagree. Precious metals are an asset class that should be a part of a well diversified portfolio. You don't own precious metals to get rich--you own them as part of your portfolio to carry you through turbulent waters to stop from going poor. Nobody here is saying to dump all of your money into precious metals--that would be irresponsible. This is a stock thread--which means that most people in here own stocks, probalby some real estate, and most likely other assets as well. All we can do is look forward and speculate if the economic waters look smooth ahead or if they look turbulent. Several countries have already messed with their currencies and interest rates. There is domestic and global unrest--and the prospect of a trade war(s) is real. The amount of global sovern debt is growing exponentially. People aren't gaining confidence in government issued currency--they are losing confidence in it. Precious metals are an insurance policy for your primary assets--they aren't intended to BE your primary assets. Much like most any insurance policies--everybody should have one--but you hope to never have to use them. If you think that people protecting their investments is stupid--thats totally a cool and fine opinion--but we'll just have to agree to disagree.
That's your opinion and I'm certainly not trying to change it. With that said--if I'm buying something as an insurance policy against turbulent waters--I want it ready and accessible. Most everybody who moderately to heavily invests in the markets has a safe place to store their valuables. Unless your silver/gold rations are enough to fill Fort Knox--I'm not sure why the storage aspect of it is soo bothersome to you. With that said--there is no problem with two people seeing things differently.I just think buying a bunch of this crap and putting it in a vault is dumb, there are ETF that are reasonable to own for this now. I also think that if the SHTF nobody will trade in silver and gold, it will be bullets and penicillin.
There are certainly folks that don't trust the petrodollar or some other zerohedge nonsense and throw every last "piece of fiat" into an ammo can of silver eagles. I think we all agree that those folks are not maximizing their return.I just think buying a bunch of this crap and putting it in a vault is dumb, there are ETF that are reasonable to own for this now. I also think that if the SHTF nobody will trade in silver and gold, it will be bullets and penicillin.
That looks great until you see it was accompanied by a 1-60 reverse stock split.Anybody own MCOA? It's up 5,900%......today. Looks like I picked the wrong marijuana penny stocks.
What brokerage do you use that allows you to short TVIX?Another week, another $1k shorting TVIX.
Could have made more but some weird spike today and it jumped up $1 per share before coming back down a bit.
Suppose I was a bit too patient (aka greedy)
This just seems too easy. Wish I had the grapes to play with some real money.
If I were doing the same thing x5 ... or x10 ... wow.
How'd you guys do this week?
etradeWhat brokerage do you use that allows you to short TVIX?
Asking the real questionsWhat brokerage do you use that allows you to short TVIX?
Buy silver bullets. Wa-LaI just think buying a bunch of this crap and putting it in a vault is dumb, there are ETF that are reasonable to own for this now. I also think that if the SHTF nobody will trade in silver and gold, it will be bullets and penicillin.