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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)

Not to brag because I do own a wide variety of holdings, but having three things in the green today feels like a huge win (ZM, GLD and GILD). Only down four figures and not five. It's party time!

 
ditka...mike ditka said:
Any favorites at this point or too early?
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Mine are mostly valic but yeah too early. Right now it's anything with MSFT, AMZN, AAPL etc in it is still hanging on and outperforming the rest. All small cap funds are being destroyed as they usually are in downturns.

I'm going in 50% at close. I'm ready to start filling my pants now if we break downward but I can't argue with missing a 20% selloff. 

 
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Did my own nibbling on GOOG. I like the list put forth by Todem and have already opened positions in VZ, AAPL, AMZN, BA and now GOOG. I'm running out of cash so I need that stimulus to come right about now, Mr President. TIA.

 
AIM finished up 12% on the day.  Not sure why.

Bought back some of the AMZN I sold at $2150.  Probably too early, but in a couple of years $1820 will look cheap.  I'll add more at $1600.

 
Marketwatch article actually said something correct about selloffs: “A bottom won’t be reached until investors lose all hope,” the chart read.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Dumb question time. 401ks are managed by Fidelity. I placed my rebalance orders 30 mins before market close, but they were scheduled for market close. They now say pending. Seeing as markets may see a sizable spike (up or down) before opening tomorrow, does anyone know when these trades would take place? Are they executed over time throughout the day tomorrow?
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It's not a dumb question and I had to look mine up recently (not Fidelity).  Anything I submit prior to noon ET gets processed that day.  Anything after noon runs the risk of being processed the next morning.  

 
beef said:
It's not a dumb question and I had to look mine up recently (not Fidelity).  Anything I submit prior to noon ET gets processed that day.  Anything after noon runs the risk of being processed the next morning.  
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You sure about that? I think if you get trade in before 4 you get the closing NAV

 
Question for the more macro minded folks:

Setting aside the argument that the market stopped accurately pricing risk a long time ago, there’s no way all the risk of this pandemic is currently priced into this market, right? Wrong?

Doesn’t the market need a lot more time to digest all the impact info that’s is streaming in?

wild ride to be sure

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
Question for the more macro minded folks:

Setting aside the argument that the market stopped accurately pricing risk a long time ago, there’s no way all the risk of this pandemic is currently priced into this market, right? Wrong?

Doesn’t the market need a lot more time to digest all the impact info that’s is streaming in?

wild ride to be sure
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The market hasn't priced in the risk.

Yes the market needs more time to digest.

 
TripItUp said:
The market hasn't priced in the risk.

Yes the market needs more time to digest.
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I disagree. Whether or not we continue to go down more, I think you guys are wrong that the market isn’t pricing in a pandemic. The WHO announced it during the day. We had a 7-8% drop on Monday. Movements like that don’t happen if the market thinks this is the flu. We’re down 20% in 2 1/2 weeks. The market is typically out in front of things. It is also typically overshooting as well, which is why when things look like they are getting contained (no idea when) even a stabilization like China could make the market jump. Heck, we may be at a point where our death numbers are at a high, but once things look like they’re getting less worse that could start the market recovery. Are we priced for the Black Plague, no, because that’s not a foregone conclusion. Even the people saying it won’t be contained have numbers with a 70 million person range.

If the market took time to digest we’d still be at all time highs because the Q4 earnings that have been rolling in have been solid. That’s already in the rear view. Again, I don’t know the bottom but there is no news digesting.

 
Walking Boot said:
Agreed

For all we know the recent sell off has been motivated by foreign holders going to cash as their communities start to close down, and they need to hold physical currency to get through the next few months.

We might not yet be at the point where domestic shareholders start to even price in extensive disruptions in the international supply chains, port closures, and insurance payouts even as a starting point before we even see how the US retail economy reacts to everyone having to stay home and not go to the movies, the malls, sporting events, concerts, parties, restaurants, etc.
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Seriously? The market is always forward looking and it now moves at lightning speed. You really think this 20% drop in 2 1/2 weeks is driven by foreign holders and US retail and institutional investors are still digesting news? All investors heard pandemic and have the same information that we discuss on this forum. Doesn’t mean we’ve hit bottom or the news could get worse than expected or better than expected. I just think you guys thinking that the corona virus isn’t priced in yet are incorrect. Again, I’m not calling a bottom, I’m just saying that the market isn’t reactionary. It may not be right all the time, but it’s absolutely looking ahead.

 
[icon] said:
I'd love all the info you're comfortable sharing, GB. :wub:  

ALSO, If not TAIL, I know I'm not alone in looking for your leans in this late-crash (but still early "economic/pandemic" market. 
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I need to think on this one.  I'm a trend follower - that means I look at fundamentals to tell me WHAT to buy, but technical analysis on WHEN to buy it.  I'm reading all the posts here thinking WTF...I thought everyone was a "time in the market" kind of guy.  When did everyone become market timers?

I will say from a trend perspective on daily charts many positions quoted here look dangerous.  With that said the LT market is bullish and might still take some months to fully roll over.  Typically, that means at some point in the future we could see a significant bounce.  How high?  $SPY 300's not out of the picture.  Now I don't know the future.  In my experience of analyzing many many trends such a move would be common, typical and highly probable.  Now it's possible I'm wrong just as it's possible that Covid-19 mutates and turns half of you guys into zombies and I'll be riding my motorcicle with a crossbow taking you out :)  

I do have some early indications that the LT trend is potentially rolling over, but again - there should be time to figure that all out.  10 year trends do not flip in 1 month in my experience.  However, I reserve the right to be wrong.

 
stbugs said:
Seriously? The market is always forward looking and it now moves at lightning speed. You really think this 20% drop in 2 1/2 weeks is driven by foreign holders and US retail and institutional investors are still digesting news? All investors heard pandemic and have the same information that we discuss on this forum. Doesn’t mean we’ve hit bottom or the news could get worse than expected or better than expected. I just think you guys thinking that the corona virus isn’t priced in yet are incorrect. Again, I’m not calling a bottom, I’m just saying that the market isn’t reactionary. It may not be right all the time, but it’s absolutely looking ahead.
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No problem with having some disagreement here.

When/if American hospitals are overflowing and Europe is doing some form of QE to bail out it's weaker countries...then we'll know exactly how forward looking this market has been.

Obviously, I hope neither of those things happen, but both are on the table....and those aren't the only macro risks.

 
stbugs said:
Seriously? The market is always forward looking and it now moves at lightning speed. You really think this 20% drop in 2 1/2 weeks is driven by foreign holders and US retail and institutional investors are still digesting news? All investors heard pandemic and have the same information that we discuss on this forum. Doesn’t mean we’ve hit bottom or the news could get worse than expected or better than expected. I just think you guys thinking that the corona virus isn’t priced in yet are incorrect. Again, I’m not calling a bottom, I’m just saying that the market isn’t reactionary. It may not be right all the time, but it’s absolutely looking ahead.
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90% of this correction is Virus related. The oil plunge piled on......we are between 5-10% away from the bottom....then we will be range bound with wild moves up and back down.....and when we know we are pretty much in the clear from this virus (I have no idea when that will happen) the market will whipsaw back up....quite quickly. 

 
Ok, somewhere tomorrow is the entry point for AAL/UAL/DAL.  I'll let you know if I find it.  I mean how much worse can this get?

 
I would suggest calling them - pretty sure they have 24 hour CS.

I have Schwab, any order placed before end of trading day is fulfilled when NAV is calculated (sometimes takes a few hours after end of day). I'd assume this is the same with Fidelity.

 
Mr. Ham said:
I have scoured Fidelity site and can find NOWHERE whether my rebalance placed this afternoon gets priced at closing price today, or opening tomorrow. This has huge implications. Anyone know an answer?
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Mutual Funds take hours to settle after market closes. You definitely won’t know until tomorrow even if it went through. I’d lean towards it probably happened but you’ll have to wait, most likely.

 
I am almost 100% positive you will receive the fund at value when calculated today.  This is done because they don't want people day trading funds.  Either way, go with an ETF if available.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Nope. Open at 8:30 am EST. Will call then.

Here’s what I found:

“Note: all orders are valid only for that particular premarket or after-hour trading session. Any equity requirement necessary for trade approval will be based upon the most recent closing price of the security that you intend to buy or sell. Because of fluctuating conditions, the ultimate execution price may differ at times from the most recent closing price.

For orders placed prior to market open, Fidelity may wait for the primary exchange to open before commencing trading in a particular security.

Please use caution when placing orders while the market is closed. Securities may open sharply below or above where they closed the previous day. Fidelity reserves the right to refuse to accept any opening transaction for any reason, at its sole discretion.

_
Where that leaves me, I have no idea. Will attempt to cancel as soon as the line opens.
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Lol...you cant cancel b/c futures went to crap overnight.  

 
Just looking at the big picture here—let’s try to dissect things here.  Obviously we haven’t tested enough people—but as we are testing more—it looks as though the picture that is becoming more and more clear is a scary one in regards to this virus. Now—we know that the headlines are going to be scary tomorrow and for a while to come.  I’d normally think that a situation like this might be time to go bargain hunting—but I’m not so sure anymore.   Even if things aren’t that bad in reality—what has happened tonight feels like a giant black cloud that I think could propel the markets moderately to significantly lower.  I still think that long term investors will be okay—but god dang—feels like things just got 10x more complicated tonight.  

 
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TripItUp said:
No problem with having some disagreement here.

When/if American hospitals are overflowing and Europe is doing some form of QE to bail out it's weaker countries...then we'll know exactly how forward looking this market has been.

Obviously, I hope neither of those things happen, but both are on the table....and those aren't the only macro risks.
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There's a difference between saying the market is digesting what is going on and what the market will be if things go to pot. Right now, things haven't gotten to that point. Saying that the market is forward looking doesn't mean we are at the bottom because the market doesn't truly know the future. One of the experts quoted in here about a bad case mentioned 75-150 million infected if there is no containment. While they are both large numbers, that's a gigantic range even in the worst case scenario. The market has the virus priced in, but it's priced in what it thinks is the most likely case, not the worst case (yet).

 
hard to believe the flurry of news tonight won't impact the markets tomorrow.

Several sectors are going to get hammered imho

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Just looking at the big picture here—let’s try to dissect things here.  Obviously we haven’t tested enough people—but as we are testing more—it looks as though the picture that is becoming more and more clear is a scary one in regards to this virus. Now—we know that the headlines are going to be scary tomorrow and for a while to come.  I’d normally think that a situation like this might be time to go bargain hunting—but I’m not so sure anymore.   Even if things aren’t that bad in reality—what has happened tonight feels like a giant black cloud that I think could propel the markets moderately to significantly lower.  I still think that long term investors will be okay—but god dang—feels like things just got 10x more complicated tonight.  
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They did. Before tonight they were just numbers....... but tonight celebrities tested positive, athletes tested positive, the NBA suspended, the NHL is going to do the same tomorrow morning, NCAA is going to do the same. Your regular Joe and Jane can finally put a face to this thing. Tomorrow and Friday are going to be a bloodbath.

 
I don't think news today changes anything as much, I thought all europe flights banned, just non americans on them.  But now that I really put my head to that I think this could be worse because it obligates the common carriers to fly half empty planes.

The General said:
At some point you don’t get greedy and just jump in. The hysteria will be off the charts high tomorrow though. 
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Bossman said:
I picked up 10 AMZN at 1800. 10 GOOGL at 1200.

Will continue to add as it goes down.
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I think this is a good strategy.  I will add on at every 200 point drop.  I don't want to be that guy waiting for it to bottom and then watch it cross 2200 with none in tow.

 
If we go down 4-5%, I'll likely dabble a bit more. No idea where we are going, but there's a few stocks that I know (based on great earnings and raising guidance) are cheap as heck and will be great 5 year returns.

 
No data behind my gut feel but I think we haven't felt the major brunt of it yet. We are on the same trajectory as Italy, almost to a tee with confirmed cases and deaths, we are just 5 days behind them. Most of the rest of Europe is also tracking the same way.I believe when we have adequate number test kits to test everyon that's symptomatic we will get get real results and hopefully start leveling off, if, and that's a big if, we have it somewhat contained at that point.

 
The economic loss of all these cancelled events is unprecidented. The WMC, SxSW, Ultra, Coachella, , NBA, March madness, possibly NHL & MLB, maybe the Olympics. It's a crazy amount of $

 
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