Stock Thread (16 Viewers)

[-OZ-]

Serious question - why do people insist on trying to time the market (get out, get back in, etc) when literally nobody in history has been able to successfully time the market with any kind of regularity? Do you think you’re smarter than everyone else, or can you just not control your emotions (greed/fear)? If it’s the latter (and maybe also if it’s the former), that’s why you need a Financial Advisor....to keep you from hurting yourself.

Do you see anything wrong with using a small amount of your assets to either try your hand at things or gamble with? Assuming you're otherwise in good shape. The only part I actively manage is well under 10% of our investments, and our investments are one leg of our retirement plans. 

The bulk of our investments I leave set where I want them, losing money kinda hurts but not that bad. I get more satisfaction from the plan than the result. 

I can see the benefit in a fee only FA, to double check whether we're maximizing the tax benefits long term and the best vehicle (i.e  in hindsight using coverdell instead of 529s might have been a mistake). But for the actual investing? Paying .5-1% annually over the last couple decades would have us behind where we are today.  (We've pretty much kept up with the broad markets, which has been the goal for those accounts). 

I think I've mentioned it before, but my first and only experience with a FA was a sham. Clearly out for the sale. The same company tried to hire me (I did apply as I was curious) but I couldn't sell their snake oil. Not every company is the same, I'd definitely bet yours is ethical and legit, but that's the taste from before. 

 

[Capella]

So is anyone thinning their amazon holdings?   I’ve done well there buying on the dips and selling after it runs 600 points

I sold a few last month around 1800 but generally it’s my super long term hold. I don’t know what it will look like in a few years but I think it’ll start with a 3. 

 

[-OZ-]

Can any of the pro airline folks tell me what’s changed in the last week?  I felt like I was on an island a week ago and the sentiment here was very negative. Also this board seems to be pro delta and I’ve done much better on ual and save

 I've been on board with JETS for a while.  Very anti cruise line but pro airline industry. We need them, the government needs them.

 

[The Ref]

Can any of the pro airline folks tell me what’s changed in the last week?  I felt like I was on an island a week ago and the sentiment here was very negative. Also this board seems to be pro delta and I’ve done much better on ual and save

I posted my trade on JBLU 1.5 weeks ago and mentioned I picked up DAL at the closing Bell yesterday.

I think the consensus is DAL is the leapper with the most fingers and best balance sheet so it was safer.  As such the others have been more volitile (which is why I traded JBLU).

Im a Gordon Geko guy where I’ll never invest in an airline....... but if they oversold and Uncle Sam wants to hand out $$, why not?

 

[ghostguy123]

Maybe I am crazy but every time the overall market is red, the airlines are pretty green

 

[stbugs]

I've cashed in on TTD puts 3x since the virus broke and today I'm going at it again.

The run up right now is not based on any current fundamentals.  They will not have a good quarter until Q4.  I think they are getting caught up in a buying spree right now where people are buying anything that was beat down but am convinced its heading back down again.  It moves quickly in either direction.

Seems to me that there isnt a whole lot of news about the ad market but there is nothing good to report right now.  I saw an article about Facebook yesterday that was pretty telling though.  They are having to cut rates and this is one of the top sites people want to advertise on.  Cant imagine what the little publishers are facing.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/13/facebook-cut-ad-rates-as-pandemic-sank-demand.aspx

NYTimes posted an article today so maybe this is going to start going more mainstream as far as industry knowledge goes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/technology/coronavirus-google-facebook-advertising.html

When TTD reports on Q2 and Q3, it will be awful. Nobody advertises in Q3 anyway, its the slowest time of the year.  Cutting spending is where brands will save money after taking hits themselves.

From that article "Advertisers that are still spending are tiptoeing around coronavirus news. Articles or posts about death, illness and economic turmoil are not exactly advertiser friendly, and many mainstream marketers are avoiding any pandemic-related content."

So the one thing that is dominating the news right now, people don't even want to advertise against.  In an industry starving for content with no sports for the forseeable future, its not good that news sites are also having problems monetizing.

It's just not possible that a digital platform to buy advertising is in a good spot.  Publishers can still sell direct too, its not like programmatic is the only way to buy ads.

Feel like this stock is due for a sharp correction but it has defied logic for over a week now.  

Sounds good, but I think they’ll be better off than you think. I don’t have all the numbers but their highest growing segments were around the connected TV. They work with Disney (up to 50M Disney+ and they own Hulu too) and Amazon and we’ve seen via Roku announce that they are up a lot due to CV. Facebook and Google don’t have the streaming segments that TTD does. I’m sure they’ll have CV impact but does their connected TV make up for it or at least make it not so bad that they weather the storm better than others.

Not sure, but I own a bit more than I should. I’m up 30-40% in a little less than a year so I can’t complain. Should have sold some over $300 but I was thinking about the 40% whack due to short term capital gains. I’ll see what tomorrow brings but I’ll likely reallocate a bit of it.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Sounds good, but I think they’ll be better off than you think. I don’t have all the numbers but their highest growing segments were around the connected TV. They work with Disney (up to 50M Disney+ and they own Hulu too) and Amazon and we’ve seen via Roku announce that they are up a lot due to CV. Facebook and Google don’t have the streaming segments that TTD does. I’m sure they’ll have CV impact but does their connected TV make up for it or at least make it not so bad that they weather the storm better than others.

Not sure, but I own a bit more than I should. I’m up 30-40% in a little less than a year so I can’t complain. Should have sold some over $300 but I was thinking about the 40% whack due to short term capital gains. I’ll see what tomorrow brings but I’ll likely reallocate a bit of it.

Connected TV is growing but its still a very small amount of digital ad budgets.  That space is still trying to figure itself out and is not a large part of media plans.  Some pubs are not even monetizing their connected tv apps yet.

Trade Desk is a good company, don't get me wrong, it will come back.  Its just a matter if you want to wait out some bad times.  I'm confident Q2 and Q3 will be really bad, the news is just not highly publicized yet.

 

[Don't Noonan]

So is anyone thinning their amazon holdings?   I’ve done well there buying on the dips and selling after it runs 600 points

Tempted but I am holding.  Earnings are end of month.  I need to look at expectations a little more.

 

[Sand]

Hey folks....put that windbag on ignore. I got pissed off there. I have been working my ### off and that just rubbed me the wrong way. Not trying to make any drama at all....it just really rubbed me wrong. I felt the hate and envy in that post. Like a guy who wanted to take his ball and go home because he is losing. 

You provide a ton of value here. Would be a shame if you left.  I'd happily take a long walk in the woods to make room for you in here.  

 

[Steeler]

Anyway......I will chime in. I enjoy talking with everyone here. And I really enjoy helping people when I can. 

I'm glad you are sticking around @Todem, I'm pretty new to the thread bu I really enjoy your comments/guidance.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

You provide a ton of value here. Would be a shame if you left.  I'd happily take a long walk in the woods to make room for you in here.  

Yeah, tailing him has made me a tidy little profit. Not fbg type money but a nice little profit.

 

[sporthenry]

Yeah, railing him has made me a tidy little profit. Not fbg type money but a nice little profit.

So now we know what Todem does with all the money he makes. 

 

[CGRdrJoe]

So now we know what Todem does with all the money he makes. 

Fn posting without my reading glasses on

 

[Warrior]

With all due respect, it's easier than ever to "do it themselves" with all the resources out there. Besides, many people (at least many in the FFA) enjoy managing their money. It's a hobby.

Agreed. Not paying 1% of my entire portfolio every single year for someone just to play psychiatrist. Until retirement that would be hundreds of thousands siphoned off whereas I can instead do a small amount of research, keep that $ and just decide not to try and foolishly time the market. 

With that said, I see where they can provide some value to those who are itching to pull out at the first sign of trouble. Or for those who don't understand that cheap, easy index funds will beat 99% of financial advisors over the long haul (amd will beat most of them by a LOT). But even for those people...pay an actual psychiatrist if you need someone to talk you off a ledge. It'll be a small small fraction of the cost over the long run. 

 

[BassNBrew]

I was reading an article tonight that roughly half of the stock market funds are passively managed, up from 25% over the last 10 years.  What happens in 90% of the funds become passively managed?  How is individual stock pricing impacted?

 

[sporthenry]

Any suggestions here that aren't Greek.

I'm not sure if you plan on tailing into tankers but the more I look into it, it does seem like a good trade a la the refiners a few years ago where they saw a jump in crack spreads from Colonial Pipeline explosion or Hurricane Harvey. Long-term, it seems like tankers will struggle as demand to transport oil subsides. So hopefully it bounces a bunch in the next few months but seems like the medium term will weight on it. That said, earnings should be ridiculous so rather buy record tanker earnings now than buy negative earnings elsewhere. 

For reference, spot rates for VLCC (very large crude carriers) are at ~$160k right now. Historically, that rate has been sub $50k. Now the spot rate is volatile but it hit up to $260k last week with some getting over $300k. 

I looked at DHT and did some back on the envelope math. They are pure play VLCC. Own 27 vessels and had 23 that were subject to the spot rates. They just put 6 of those ships on 12 month contracts at an average of $67k. Their cash flow breakeven for the remaining 17 ships is $2,630 per day and we're talking spot rates of $100k. It's cost structure seems very fixed especially as VLCCs are likely to just act as storage, can't imagine a lot of variable costs with that. My back of the envelope math suggests if 2Q averages 100k spot rate, you could see operating cash flow of $160mn during 2Q on a company with an EV of ~$1.8bn. So you'd be looking at like 9% of their EV in one quarter. 

https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl/status/1250109527229333504/photo/1

 

[kevzilla]

If the people who wanted Todem to hang around would stop bashing his profession, that would be great. 

 

[BassNBrew]

If the people who wanted Todem to hang around would stop bashing his profession, that would be great. 

I'm not sure if you plan on tailing into tankers but the more I look into it, it does seem like a good trade a la the refiners a few years ago where they saw a jump in crack spreads from Colonial Pipeline explosion or Hurricane Harvey. Long-term, it seems like tankers will struggle as demand to transport oil subsides. So hopefully it bounces a bunch in the next few months but seems like the medium term will weight on it. That said, earnings should be ridiculous so rather buy record tanker earnings now than buy negative earnings elsewhere. 

For reference, spot rates for VLCC (very large crude carriers) are at ~$160k right now. Historically, that rate has been sub $50k. Now the spot rate is volatile but it hit up to $260k last week with some getting over $300k. 

I looked at DHT and did some back on the envelope math. They are pure play VLCC. Own 27 vessels and had 23 that were subject to the spot rates. They just put 6 of those ships on 12 month contracts at an average of $67k. Their cash flow breakeven for the remaining 17 ships is $2,630 per day and we're talking spot rates of $100k. It's cost structure seems very fixed especially as VLCCs are likely to just act as storage, can't imagine a lot of variable costs with that. My back of the envelope math suggests if 2Q averages 100k spot rate, you could see operating cash flow of $160mn during 2Q on a company with an EV of ~$1.8bn. So you'd be looking at like 9% of their EV in one quarter. 

https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl/status/1250109527229333504/photo/1

Thanks.  I did grab some DHT yesterday and may add to that today.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

 Or for those who don't understand that cheap, easy index funds will beat 99% of financial advisors over the long haul (amd will beat most of them by a LOT). 

You are right about AMD, if you owned nothing else last year, you were good to beat any Financial advisor.

 

[lod001]

$2400, deposited in our bank account. Tax free! Sweet.

 

[-OZ-]

$2800, deposited in our bank account. Tax free! Sweet.

Do you make just over the $150k?  (Or is this something else?)

Still haven't seen ours

 

[lod001]

Do you make just over the $150k?  (Or is this something else?)

Still haven't seen ours

I meant 2400. We make just under 150k. Came in late last night.

 

[Capella]

Do you make just over the $150k?  (Or is this something else?)

Still haven't seen ours

My mom, who lives off of SS hasn’t got hers yet. Wild. 

 

[SayWhat?]

.

 

[-OZ-]

My mom, who lives off of SS hasn’t got hers yet. Wild. 

This seems almost random, although it was said it would be rolled out by lowest income first. 

 

[BigJohn]

This seems almost random, although it was said it would be rolled out by lowest income first. 

If you've filed 2019 w/ D.D., then you're first in line.   I believe everyone else will be in line for paper checks.  That order could be scaled by income.  I could be wrong also.

 

[-OZ-]

If you've filed 2019 w/ D.D., then you're first in line.   I believe everyone else will be in line for paper checks.  That order could be scaled by income.  I could be wrong also.

IRS has my DD info but I paid by credit card this year.

 

[ghostguy123]

3400 deposited.  Yayyy.

So with crude oil below 20 bucks right now, any of you guys expecting any sort of surge in any of the old stocks in the next few days or weeks?  If so which ones?  I have heard USO mentioned, WTI, XOM.....

 

[-OZ-]

It's kind of funny how quickly this can go from "don't really need the money but I'll take it, really should give it to those who actually need it first" to "#####, where's my ####### money‽"

 

[BassNBrew]

My mom, who lives off of SS hasn’t got hers yet. Wild. 

This seems almost random, although it was said it would be rolled out by lowest income first.

Lives off her social security, make it rain in dividend income.

 

[BassNBrew]

I meant 2400. We make just under 150k. Came in late last night.

Congrats.  I probably need to take the day off from posting.  

#### the the mfing gov't.  I won't get a dime but get to write out my $850 a month health insurance premium check which is totally useless right now given that every non-civid related doctor won't see you and the feds are picking up the tab on anything covid related.  While many were just under because their health insurance isn't taxable, mine is so I'm not just under.  Meanwhile we get to pay our son's bills because the gd state gov't can't process his unemployment claim in 4 weeks.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I edited the first because some know what they are doing and I edited & explained it. Didn't need a pro for that Brexit move. It was obvious. Just needed to not be greedy. I'm doing fine without a 'pro'. For the year I am beating the S&P and NAZ in all accounts. This selloff was almost as obvious as the housing bubble of which i totally avoided and poured into the market in  2009.

Well, the point of a financial adviser is not to "make moves all the time". It's to get you on a solid, long term plan and make sure you stay on that plan during emotional, confusing times. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Agreed. Not paying 1% of my entire portfolio every single year for someone just to play psychiatrist. Until retirement that would be hundreds of thousands siphoned off whereas I can instead do a small amount of research, keep that $ and just decide not to try and foolishly time the market. 

With that said, I see where they can provide some value to those who are itching to pull out at the first sign of trouble. Or for those who don't understand that cheap, easy index funds will beat 99% of financial advisors over the long haul (amd will beat most of them by a LOT). But even for those people...pay an actual psychiatrist if you need someone to talk you off a ledge. It'll be a small small fraction of the cost over the long run. 

Advisors may not be smart for you, but they are for 90% of the country.  I don't agree with Gru's blanket statement, but I'm 100% confident that Gru and Todem would be a huge help to at least 90% of the US population.  This is similar to me me posting in the landlord thread.  90% of the people would be better off with me as their property manager, 10% would be better off doing it themselves.  Off course if I'm posting in the landlord thread, most of the others posting their are going to fall into the 10%.  I'm not going to take offense to them saying that my services aren't worth the % fee to them.  In the case of Gru and Todem, their 1% fee is dirt cheap to the people who consistently make mistakes.  I'm not going to mention any names, but their have been posters in this thread who are likely better educated book wise that could have saved huge chunks of cash if they had a steady hand at the helm of the wealth.

 

[Jayrok]

I'm just under $150k and received the DD yesterday.  Came as a surprise because I thought the cutoff was 100k.  Misread the IRS rules.  

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Agreed. Not paying 1% of my entire portfolio every single year for someone just to play psychiatrist. Until retirement that would be hundreds of thousands siphoned off whereas I can instead do a small amount of research, keep that $ and just decide not to try and foolishly time the market. 

With that said, I see where they can provide some value to those who are itching to pull out at the first sign of trouble. Or for those who don't understand that cheap, easy index funds will beat 99% of financial advisors over the long haul (amd will beat most of them by a LOT). But even for those people...pay an actual psychiatrist if you need someone to talk you off a ledge. It'll be a small small fraction of the cost over the long run. 

Again, most financial advisors are not "stock pickers", per se. They are financial planners, giving you a long term plan for your money and property and making sure, or trying to make sure, that you stick to those plans. My FA has me in a bunch of low cost index funds. It's not an either/or thing with a FA. Todem is talking about his clients that have some shorter term "fun" money where he does try to pick some stocks for them. That's not his main job by a long shot. 

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I was reading an article tonight that roughly half of the stock market funds are passively managed, up from 25% over the last 10 years.  What happens in 90% of the funds become passively managed?  How is individual stock pricing impacted?

What I think is interesting is that in my experience and opinion, passive management works much better in good times and active management works much better in rough times. In good times, as you have mentioned several times, any low cost, broad index fund is going to be tough to beat the costs of active stock picking. In rough times, like these days, someone doing individual equity research and  picking the good stocks/bonds from the crap that is in the index is worth the extra money you pay for it. 

So after a long, long stretch of good times, it seems obvious that passive management would always be better. 

 

[-OZ-]

Well, the point of a financial adviser is not to "make moves all the time". It's to get you on a solid, long term plan and make sure you stay on that plan during emotional, confusing times. 

Right. Step 1, know yourself. Of course the first step is often the hardest.

Advisors may not be smart for you, but they are for 90% of the country.  I don't agree with Gru's blanket statement, but I'm 100% confident that Gru and Todem would be a huge help to at least 90% of the US population.  

Agreed.

 

[-OZ-]

And now today looks like a good day to buy.

Or to have some shorts. 

 

[sporthenry]

“Dow futures fall 550 points, extending losses after retail sales tumble more than expected“

So historically bad economic data is bad after all. 
 

“New York manufacturing hits record low reading of -78.2 amid coronavirus collapse“

 

[-OZ-]

Congrats.  I probably need to take the day off from posting.  

#### the the mfing gov't.  I won't get a dime but get to write out my $850 a month health insurance premium check which is totally useless right now given that every non-civid related doctor won't see you and the feds are picking up the tab on anything covid related.  While many were just under because their health insurance isn't taxable, mine is so I'm not just under.  Meanwhile we get to pay our son's bills because the gd state gov't can't process his unemployment claim in 4 weeks.

Congrats on making a nice salary? 

But yeah, the rest sucks. 

 

[-OZ-]

“Dow futures fall 550 points, extending losses after retail sales tumble more than expected“

So historically bad economic data is bad after all. 
 

“New York manufacturing hits record low reading of -78.2 amid coronavirus collapse“

Otoh, JETS up 3% pre market

 

[Payne]

Yeah......it is about that time for me to check out of here. I don’t want to listen to the whiners who beated their chest that they got out and never got back in..what do I do..when do I get back in. I mean I never got “out” other than 30% in cash I had......I am down 11% YTD in my own portfolio. And I did not have to wonder #### I missed getting back in. That is why......you never sell into this.....you will lose. Because you won’t get back in. You will be frozen in fear. If you had your ear marked for reitrement in 15,20 years.....WTF are you doing?

I can’t help you. My clients never got out. I never got out. 

So now.....I am out.

Good luck everyone. Stay positive. We will get through this and prosper on the other side. 

My best picks were listed way back on....March 16th? Use that for yourself. 

Best of luck to all of you.....see you in the fun threads like......the video game thread. That is where I will go hang again. I think I have really helped as much as I can in here. And I really enjoyed it. And my welcome is now worn out.

Peace everyone!!

Sure hope I am not one of the people you are referring to when you say "whiners beating their chest when they got out..."

I was far from beating my chest. I pulled my money out when I felt fear would tank the market and I didn't want to be a part of it. And yeah, I am questioning when a good time is (or was) to jump back in. "WTF was I doing?" People that pulled their money out didn't lose a good portion of their retirement. And buying back in can help grow their retirement. Why is that something that upsets you?

 

[stbugs]

And now today looks like a good day to buy.

Or to have some shorts. 

Might be a good day to lighten the load and build up some more cash. Even if things open up there’s no new normal yet. I was just talking with my wife that I feel like mask and gloves is going to continue for months and the trip to Costco I used to enjoy isn’t really fun anymore. I know, but 3 boys, tons of used to be practices and games and work, it was nice to have an hour or two with nothing to think about. I don’t want to get CV before a vaccine so the economy ain’t kicking back to gear in a lot of areas for a while. The rosy stock market was a bear rally IMHO. I actually do think we may retest the lows. Either way, I’ve got some stuff I wouldn’t mind selling close to their highs.

 

[stbugs]

Congrats on making a nice salary? 

But yeah, the rest sucks. 

Yeah, hard for me to complain about getting zilch. I was wondering if my son who worked the past two years part time might get a check. He’d be in hog heaven but I’m sure as our dependent he won’t get anything.

 

[guru_007]

One thing that I've reaffirmed during this pandemic is that people will undoubtedly complain about anything and everything.

 

[Todem]

Yeah, tailing him has made me a tidy little profit. Not fbg type money but a nice little profit.

Singles and doubles....we like to hit singles and doubles and have a high OBP. That is how we play baseball. And baseball to me is life. 

 

[sporthenry]

Otoh, JETS up 3% pre market

Will be interesting to see. Looks like JETS closed at 8pm last night (according to google finance) so hasn't really reacted to news today but was up as much as 13% in after-market trading. While airlines will still get a pop and outperform to start, seems like some of it will get lost in the downmarket. 

 

[-OZ-]

Will be interesting to see. Looks like JETS closed at 8pm last night (according to google finance) so hasn't really reacted to news today but was up as much as 13% in after-market trading. While airlines will still get a pop and outperform to start, seems like some of it will get lost in the downmarket. 

Probably true. 

 

[sporthenry]

Probably true. 

JETS look set to open at ~$15.5 so up almost 4%, probably half of what it would have been. 

 

[caustic]

Thoughts on Alibaba long-term? The price forecasts listed here are absolutely wild: https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=BABA

“The 51 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd have a median target of 1,828.79, with a high estimate of 2,196.15 and a low estimate of 1,483.86. The median estimate represents a +792.40% increase from the last price of 204.93.”

The “low” estimate is a 624% increase in 12 months?   What’s the deal here?