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Stock Thread (3 Viewers)

Once these layoffs start really rolling along from temporary to permanent, I can't imagine the market can continue this charade.

It's already starting.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/temporary-coronavirus-layoffs-are-turning-permanent-around-u-s 

It should snowball.
I still think a tumble in housing prices are on the horizon and will have a nasty impact on overall sentiment that will spill into the market.  And I can't imagine the people who have lost their jobs aren't going to rely on credit cards to live until they max 'em out or have limits cut.  I think a hard rain is gonna fall.  

 
Once these layoffs start really rolling along from temporary to permanent, I can't imagine the market can continue this charade.

It's already starting.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/temporary-coronavirus-layoffs-are-turning-permanent-around-u-s 

It should snowball.
AirBnB fired 25% of their staff yesterday. Once layoffs start hitting more white collar segments, that's what I would expect to end this. I'm just hoping I make it through without being fired. 

 
I still think a tumble in housing prices are on the horizon and will have a nasty impact on overall sentiment that will spill into the market.  And I can't imagine the people who have lost their jobs aren't going to rely on credit cards to live until they max 'em out or have limits cut.  I think a hard rain is gonna fall.  
Disagree wholeheartedly. Unlike our previous recession, housing is a defensive position right now, imo. At most, 5% peak to trough, 2006 to 2012 was 27%. 

Obviously some regions will be worse than others, but we aren't remotely close to a real estate collapse, imo. 

 
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I sold out of my long-term positions in TJX/ROST this morning. Was a nice profit and a way to raise cash. It seems like they would thrive with store closures elsewhere giving them cheap product and more market share, and with the employment situation being what it is discount retailers seem like a no-brainer. But one of the main reasons they're so successful is the treasure hunt experience and I'm afraid that might be slower going. Could be wrong but it was a hell of a run. Thinking might move into a DLTR or something which has the low cost theme going, but without the "trying on clothes some diseased troll tried on before me" angle.

 
AirBnB fired 25% of their staff yesterday. Once layoffs start hitting more white collar segments, that's what I would expect to end this. I'm just hoping I make it through without being fired. 
Yes. I love how everyone is using the term 'furlough' as if it makes it better. You're not laid off, you're just furloughed. These white collar jobs don't just come back. In some sense, this is good for businesses because they become leaner and why recessions from time to time aren't bad. Sure, restaurants could just hire staff back, assuming they reopen. But Uber, AirBnB, TripAdvisor aren't rehiring these folks. They wouldn't risk talented white collar folks with a furlough if they 'needed' them.

 
Disagree wholeheartedly. Unlike our previous recession, housing is a defensive position right now, imo. At most, 5% peak to trough, 2006 to 2012 was 27%. 
I hope you're right, but let's just think through this.

Unequivocally, unemployment is on the rise.  Right?  It's hitting all facets as you just pointed out with AirBnB laying off 25% of its work force.  Many of these unemployed people are homeowners and not all of them have the sort of savings to pay their mortgages for more than a month or two.  So, one of two things will happen - mortgage companies will grant forbearance and work with the homeowners during this crisis to keep people in their homes OR....we'll see an increase in foreclosures.  And all along the way, you might have some newly unemployed people figuring out that the best way for them to feed their families would be to sell their house, take whatever equity they can and find somewhere else to live.  If that happens - and I can't imagine we won't see any of this - you might have more homes for sale than potential buyers and when that happens, prices will turn around.  Again, I think we all agree that while rates are low, qualifying for a mortgage is getting harder as banks are getting worried.  

I just can't think of a period of depression/recession in history that didn't have a decline in home prices.  Again, I hope you're right, but what am I missing?  Happy to be educated on where I'm wrong in my thinking.   

 
Bought CVS today for long term. Like it at the price and feel like it should be OK even in a national medical plan situation, which I don't feel is that likely. Also wondering if people start to go to smaller physical stores if possible, such as pharmacies, as opposed to larger places like Target or Walmart. Less traffic and exposure. 

 
Disagree wholeheartedly. Unlike our previous recession, housing is a defensive position right now, imo. At most, 5% peak to trough, 2006 to 2012 was 27%. 

Obviously some regions will be worse than others, but we aren't remotely close to a real estate collapse, imo. 
I think we could see a tumble without having a collapse.  And yeah, I think some areas are more vulnerable to this happening than others.  

 
I sold out of my long-term positions in TJX/ROST this morning. Was a nice profit and a way to raise cash. It seems like they would thrive with store closures elsewhere giving them cheap product and more market share, and with the employment situation being what it is discount retailers seem like a no-brainer. But one of the main reasons they're so successful is the treasure hunt experience and I'm afraid that might be slower going. Could be wrong but it was a hell of a run. Thinking might move into a DLTR or something which has the low cost theme going, but without the "trying on clothes some diseased troll tried on before me" angle.
Nice. I've been on the wrong side of this one. TJX has a loyal following. But they've succeeded by being the anti-AMZN. Something like 3% of sales online. So they're throwing a big fat 0 while these things are closed. Guess they have a ton of variable costs they can cut but also lease almost all their stores. Have manageable debt and issued some once this started so wont' be a liquidity issue. But if reopening is longer and slower. I get the recession angle which is one thing I'm worried about. Heard the whole inventory thing. Not sure I totally believe that. Don't think most of these retail bankruptcies will liquidate and assume most production is 0 right now too. So don't see Macy's or JCP selling their inventory. Could be wrong but everyones in trouble, why wouldn't Macy's just sell the stuff cheaply?

 
I hope you're right, but let's just think through this.

Unequivocally, unemployment is on the rise.  Right?  It's hitting all facets as you just pointed out with AirBnB laying off 25% of its work force.  Many of these unemployed people are homeowners and not all of them have the sort of savings to pay their mortgages for more than a month or two.  So, one of two things will happen - mortgage companies will grant forbearance and work with the homeowners during this crisis to keep people in their homes OR....we'll see an increase in foreclosures.  And all along the way, you might have some newly unemployed people figuring out that the best way for them to feed their families would be to sell their house, take whatever equity they can and find somewhere else to live.  If that happens - and I can't imagine we won't see any of this - you might have more homes for sale than potential buyers and when that happens, prices will turn around.  Again, I think we all agree that while rates are low, qualifying for a mortgage is getting harder as banks are getting worried.  

I just can't think of a period of depression/recession in history that didn't have a decline in home prices.  Again, I hope you're right, but what am I missing?  Happy to be educated on where I'm wrong in my thinking.   
Home prices have been somewhat stagnant for two years (on a national scale), there was supposed to be a somewhat of reacceleration in growth for home prices this year. The supply side has been super tight for a very long time. Furthermore, household balance sheets were fairly strong heading into this. Add in some government programs kicking the foreclosure can a few months in the hopes of a bridge. Even if more supply comes on, it will just bring the scales back towards equilibrium. I think a place like NYC could see a drop of like 15%, maybe a touch higher, but it will be backstopped by speculators. Nationwide, on a whole scale, 5% tops, imo... ***** Unless this gets much much worse, then all bets are off. 

 
Yes. I love how everyone is using the term 'furlough' as if it makes it better. You're not laid off, you're just furloughed. These white collar jobs don't just come back. In some sense, this is good for businesses because they become leaner and why recessions from time to time aren't bad. Sure, restaurants could just hire staff back, assuming they reopen. But Uber, AirBnB, TripAdvisor aren't rehiring these folks. They wouldn't risk talented white collar folks with a furlough if they 'needed' them.
I was talking to my friend on Monday who was a bartender at Buffalo Wild Wings before being laid off.  She said BWW is killing it right now with take-out orders.  Only the managers and cooks are working, so the overhead is way down and they are just churning out wings like its Super Bowl Sunday.  I wonder how many restaurants come the realization that they don't need the public sitting at their tables to make a profit.  

 
Home prices have been somewhat stagnant for two years (on a national scale), there was supposed to be a somewhat of reacceleration in growth for home prices this year. The supply side has been super tight for a very long time. Furthermore, household balance sheets were fairly strong heading into this. Add in some government programs kicking the foreclosure can a few months in the hopes of a bridge. Even if more supply comes on, it will just bring the scales back towards equilibrium. I think a place like NYC could see a drop of like 15%, maybe a touch higher, but it will be backstopped by speculators. Nationwide, on a whole scale, 5% tops, imo... ***** Unless this gets much much worse, then all bets are off. 
Yeah, I think population dense areas like NYC and SFO will see much bigger drops as people flee and don't rush to come back.  Sounds like you've made the decision to leave NYC....for good?  Or just until we get the 'all clear'?

 
I hope you're right, but let's just think through this.

Unequivocally, unemployment is on the rise.  Right?  It's hitting all facets as you just pointed out with AirBnB laying off 25% of its work force.  Many of these unemployed people are homeowners and not all of them have the sort of savings to pay their mortgages for more than a month or two.  So, one of two things will happen - mortgage companies will grant forbearance and work with the homeowners during this crisis to keep people in their homes OR....we'll see an increase in foreclosures.  And all along the way, you might have some newly unemployed people figuring out that the best way for them to feed their families would be to sell their house, take whatever equity they can and find somewhere else to live.  If that happens - and I can't imagine we won't see any of this - you might have more homes for sale than potential buyers and when that happens, prices will turn around.  Again, I think we all agree that while rates are low, qualifying for a mortgage is getting harder as banks are getting worried.  

I just can't think of a period of depression/recession in history that didn't have a decline in home prices.  Again, I hope you're right, but what am I missing?  Happy to be educated on where I'm wrong in my thinking.   
I see a few factors here on the otherside of the equation.  Supply of homes that you can actually own has been very tight in most markets for a loooong time now.  Additionally, credit standards have stayed tight since the financial crisis.  The government is consuming a huge % of mortgages meaning the underwriting on those needs to be pretty solid.  Only very recently have we seen resi securitizations show a pulse.

I haven't seen any analysis on it, but my assumption is that the distributional impact of this so far skew very much towards renters.  Bad for REITs holding apartments, but maybe not for home prices.

The AirBnB story is interesting.  How much of the price runup in major markets have been inflated demand from this type of behavior?

Personally, I own two properties ~5 minutes away from rail stops in a fast growing city (Charlotte).   I can't see those declining, but I do wonder if we may have a longer-term reversal of the urbanization trends.

Just some assorted thoughts.

 
I was talking to my friend on Monday who was a bartender at Buffalo Wild Wings before being laid off.  She said BWW is killing it right now with take-out orders.  Only the managers and cooks are working, so the overhead is way down and they are just churning out wings like its Super Bowl Sunday.  I wonder how many restaurants come the realization that they don't need the public sitting at their tables to make a profit.  
I do think the demand side of that isn't sustainable. People will want to eat out when it's safe enough and takeouts won't last forever. But between fear of servers and what not, could accelerate the automation side of stuff. I don't need a server to screw up my order or forget to take it. Order it in an ipad. Heck, I'll even go to the counter and pick it up. 

 
Nice. I've been on the wrong side of this one. TJX has a loyal following. But they've succeeded by being the anti-AMZN. Something like 3% of sales online. So they're throwing a big fat 0 while these things are closed. Guess they have a ton of variable costs they can cut but also lease almost all their stores. Have manageable debt and issued some once this started so wont' be a liquidity issue. But if reopening is longer and slower. I get the recession angle which is one thing I'm worried about. Heard the whole inventory thing. Not sure I totally believe that. Don't think most of these retail bankruptcies will liquidate and assume most production is 0 right now too. So don't see Macy's or JCP selling their inventory. Could be wrong but everyones in trouble, why wouldn't Macy's just sell the stuff cheaply?
Speaking of TJ Max/Ross......This comedian nails these stores.

 
I wonder how many restaurants come the realization that they don't need the public sitting at their tables to make a profit.  
I could see that if the masses continue to just order take-out once this is over and there's a vaccine, etc.  Wonder if people are getting a little tired of take-out and delivery.  I thought one of the main draws with BWW was having people come in and order up lots of booze while they watch ball games.  

 
I hope you're right, but let's just think through this.

Unequivocally, unemployment is on the rise.  Right?  It's hitting all facets as you just pointed out with AirBnB laying off 25% of its work force.  Many of these unemployed people are homeowners and not all of them have the sort of savings to pay their mortgages for more than a month or two.  So, one of two things will happen - mortgage companies will grant forbearance and work with the homeowners during this crisis to keep people in their homes OR....we'll see an increase in foreclosures.  And all along the way, you might have some newly unemployed people figuring out that the best way for them to feed their families would be to sell their house, take whatever equity they can and find somewhere else to live.  If that happens - and I can't imagine we won't see any of this - you might have more homes for sale than potential buyers and when that happens, prices will turn around.  Again, I think we all agree that while rates are low, qualifying for a mortgage is getting harder as banks are getting worried.  

I just can't think of a period of depression/recession in history that didn't have a decline in home prices.  Again, I hope you're right, but what am I missing?  Happy to be educated on where I'm wrong in my thinking.   
Also remember the big crash in Houston, where even people with steady income were "walking away" from their over-priced and high interest houses and buying a comparable or better house down the street at a lower price and better interest rate. That kind of stuff completely ####s the housing and baking market.

 
I disagree with the housing collapse argument as well.  

I agree with the fact that a lot of these layoffs/furloughs may become permanent unemployed and heard the term "Right sizing" this morning that I think we'll see companies try to trim the fat so to speak with labor.

However, people have to live somewhere.  Lots of people have little to no equity in their homes.  And those that do, well, with interest rates so low right now, if they need money, cash out refi's will probably make a ton more of sense than the outright sale of their home.

One other factor is I think you will see a lot of people migrating from multifamily dwelling units to houses due to the fear of this pandemic.  This will drive up demand for housing.

 
I could see that if the masses continue to just order take-out once this is over and there's a vaccine, etc.  Wonder if people are getting a little tired of take-out and delivery.  I thought one of the main draws with BWW was having people come in and order up lots of booze while they watch ball games.  
Oh yeah, they don't price their beers at $8 on accident.  That's a huge component of their business, but from what I heard, they're doing a good business during this time.

 
I was talking to my friend on Monday who was a bartender at Buffalo Wild Wings before being laid off.  She said BWW is killing it right now with take-out orders.  Only the managers and cooks are working, so the overhead is way down and they are just churning out wings like its Super Bowl Sunday.  I wonder how many restaurants come the realization that they don't need the public sitting at their tables to make a profit.  
They would significantly have to downsize their building space. What you just described is a mega-expensive food truck. 

 
I could see that if the masses continue to just order take-out once this is over and there's a vaccine, etc.  Wonder if people are getting a little tired of take-out and delivery.  I thought one of the main draws with BWW was having people come in and order up lots of booze while they watch ball games.  
My Daughter manages BOH at Cheescake Factory is Boise.   Take out sales were very strong until May 1, when it was announced things will open up May 15.  But they had strong take out before the virus also.  Things have really slowed down the past few days takeout wise.  They expect to be packed when they re-open.  People want to get out of their homes. The Boise store could be the first CCF to re-open.  All the big wigs are flying in for it.

 
Yeah, I think population dense areas like NYC and SFO will see much bigger drops as people flee and don't rush to come back.  Sounds like you've made the decision to leave NYC....for good?  Or just until we get the 'all clear'?
We don't think schools will be functioning properly next year in NYC and I can wfh (indefinitely for now, minimum through 2020... assuming I still have a job). Spoke with my boss, he said feel free to stay in FL, and if need be, I can fly to NYC. We'll find out quickly if we like it here since it will be hot as hell for the next 4 or 5 months. I'm 5 minutes from Disney right now, my kids ask daily if it is opening soon :lmao:  Took a drive to the store before, when I came back, my windshield, grill, and front of car was covered in dead bugs. Taking a trip down to Boca, Palm Beach, & Jupiter areas this weekend with the fam to look for a 6-12 month rental. We're testing the waters, we still have our apt back home. 

 
I disagree with the housing collapse argument as well.  

I agree with the fact that a lot of these layoffs/furloughs may become permanent unemployed and heard the term "Right sizing" this morning that I think we'll see companies try to trim the fat so to speak with labor.

However, people have to live somewhere.  Lots of people have little to no equity in their homes.  And those that do, well, with interest rates so low right now, if they need money, cash out refi's will probably make a ton more of sense than the outright sale of their home.

One other factor is I think you will see a lot of people migrating from multifamily dwelling units to houses due to the fear of this pandemic.  This will drive up demand for housing.
Good counter points.  I would suggest that doing a cash-out refi would be very tough absent a job, but my wife and I just did that with our house when rates dropped in March.  Felt like having no debt other than our home along with some cash in our pockets was a good thing on the cusp of my oldest going to college.  It wasn't a difficult process, but I'm still working.

 
I hope you're right, but let's just think through this.

Unequivocally, unemployment is on the rise.  Right?  It's hitting all facets as you just pointed out with AirBnB laying off 25% of its work force.  Many of these unemployed people are homeowners and not all of them have the sort of savings to pay their mortgages for more than a month or two.  So, one of two things will happen - mortgage companies will grant forbearance and work with the homeowners during this crisis to keep people in their homes OR....we'll see an increase in foreclosures.  And all along the way, you might have some newly unemployed people figuring out that the best way for them to feed their families would be to sell their house, take whatever equity they can and find somewhere else to live.  If that happens - and I can't imagine we won't see any of this - you might have more homes for sale than potential buyers and when that happens, prices will turn around.  Again, I think we all agree that while rates are low, qualifying for a mortgage is getting harder as banks are getting worried.  

I just can't think of a period of depression/recession in history that didn't have a decline in home prices.  Again, I hope you're right, but what am I missing?  Happy to be educated on where I'm wrong in my thinking.   
Hello GM.  Take a look at my thoughts here and see what you think.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/223924-official-real-estate-forum/?do=findComment&comment=22672136

The only problem is those things don't impact several of the key drivers

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N Ownership percents still down

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST Housing starts still down

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/population But the number of people needing homes is up

And this is the most interesting chart.  Rapidly increasing housing supply is a predictor of a recession. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR  We definitely have room to absorb some supply.

 
However, people have to live somewhere.  Lots of people have little to no equity in their homes.  And those that do, well, with interest rates so low right now, if they need money, cash out refi's will probably make a ton more of sense than the outright sale of their home.
I saw an article last week.  Something like 38% of homeowners own 100% of their homes.  Another 15% have 50%+ equity.

Cash outs are very hard to get right now.

 
Personally, I own two properties ~5 minutes away from rail stops in a fast growing city (Charlotte).   I can't see those declining, but I do wonder if we may have a longer-term reversal of the urbanization trends.

Just some assorted thoughts.
If I could take my NYC income to a place like FL, with no state income tax, get land, space, year round pool, good schools... Kinda feels like a no brainer. While others might choose different locations than FL, the demand will shrink in densely populated areas. This pandemic will create a tectonic shift in many things, this much I'm sure of. 

 
I was talking to my friend on Monday who was a bartender at Buffalo Wild Wings before being laid off.  She said BWW is killing it right now with take-out orders.  Only the managers and cooks are working, so the overhead is way down and they are just churning out wings like its Super Bowl Sunday.  I wonder how many restaurants come the realization that they don't need the public sitting at their tables to make a profit.  
BWW is most definitely not killing it with take out only.

Their labor costs may be down, but let's face it, servers and bussers and bartenders are not high cost labor, they rely on tips.

Profit margins on drinks are way higher than their overpriced wings.  Sure, they may be keeping afloat, but this thing keeps on keeps onning, these places are shutting their doors.  I think all restaurants outside of fast food are in big trouble tbh.  Some will recover, many will not.

 
I just see too many puts and takes for real estate. But seems like easier ways to play the hard asset, inflation hedge game. Record levels of unemployment. Tightening lending standards. Mortgage rates going to go up? Just not sure where the demand is coming from. Could see the city exodus of 30-40 year olds with moderate income possibly supporting that part of the economy. 

 
I saw an article last week.  Something like 38% of homeowners own 100% of their homes.  Another 15% have 50%+ equity.

Cash outs are very hard to get right now.
Right, but do they break this down by age?  I'd be willing to bet a good number of these 50% that have 50%+ equity are either retired or nearing retirement age.

I wasn't aware that cash outs are hard to get - I've done it before with absolutely zero hassle. :shrug:

eta - actually I misremembered.  I refid to do an addition and pull some cash to pay off a home loan.  The bank treated this as a cash out refi, which I could only do once when I tried to do it again, they did give me a hassle :)

 
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Yes. I love how everyone is using the term 'furlough' as if it makes it better. You're not laid off, you're just furloughed. These white collar jobs don't just come back. In some sense, this is good for businesses because they become leaner and why recessions from time to time aren't bad. Sure, restaurants could just hire staff back, assuming they reopen. But Uber, AirBnB, TripAdvisor aren't rehiring these folks. They wouldn't risk talented white collar folks with a furlough if they 'needed' them.
That is not how it works everywhere.  Our company was given a target number to reduce labor.  The choices were difficult and there is every intent to bring people back once revenue returns.  For publicly traded companies, there is pressure to show investors that steps are being  taken.  And on top of that, people who weren’t furloughed are putting in unsustainable levels of work making up for a short staff.  I think lots of companies are in a similar situation. 

 
BWW is most definitely not killing it with take out only.

Their labor costs may be down, but let's face it, servers and bussers and bartenders are not high cost labor, they rely on tips.

Profit margins on drinks are way higher than their overpriced wings.  Sure, they may be keeping afloat, but this thing keeps on keeps onning, these places are shutting their doors.  I think all restaurants outside of fast food are in big trouble tbh.  Some will recover, many will not.
And yet WingStop is at all time highs.  I'm with JTC, this market is insane.

 
Right, but do they break this down by age?  I'd be willing to bet a good number of these 50% that have 50%+ equity are either retired or nearing retirement age.

I wasn't aware that cash outs are hard to get - I've done it before with absolutely zero hassle. :shrug:
very hard now because of the virus.

Anyone that bought 12+ months ago has some equity.  Not many IMO less than 5%.

 
I can't add them knowing the braintrust and other braintrust are 88 and 95. Who knows what happens to these companies when they're gone. I'm buying for the future, too much uncertainty with this one, imo. 
The only counterargument to this (and I agree with you) is that the stock has been stagnant for a while with the two old braintrusts at the helm, so maybe they just need new blood at the top to get it moving. But I have no idea who's next in line so I've had it on my watch-list for a long time, but it's also never moved off of it.

 
Or a Wingstop. 
I may be in the minority on this one but not a fan of wingstop.  I've had it a few times and each time was disappointed.  Each time the wings were over cooked and then just dunked in some type of sauce.  Messy and terrible.  

 
The Federal Reserve can control the stock market, or at least backstop it, period. Why sell when the Fed will print more? That's the mentality from those in charge. 

It's that simple, that's why I own GOLD.
I am very much on board with gold, but went with CEF.  Surprised it hasn't taken off already.

 
I was talking to my friend on Monday who was a bartender at Buffalo Wild Wings before being laid off.  She said BWW is killing it right now with take-out orders.  Only the managers and cooks are working, so the overhead is way down and they are just churning out wings like its Super Bowl Sunday.  I wonder how many restaurants come the realization that they don't need the public sitting at their tables to make a profit.  
I wondering how many stores come to the realization they don't have to stay open past 7-8pm to do a good business.  Lowe's is killing it...less staff, fewer hours, same number of people (actually more right now).  My local grocery store was open until midnight.  The were never more than a handful of people from 10pm on.  Seems like a huge logistics bonus if you can get to where you can cover the day over two shifts.

 

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