Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I capitulated in my underpants
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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
How does it work when you put these things in after hours if it gaps through the level you set? The whole afterhours market is not one I had looked at closely, as I'm fairly new to trading individual names vs funds.
chet
Footballguy
Fantastic interview of former Harvard Medical School professor who slams Moderna and Remdesivir.
ETA: A link to his op ed.
ETA: A link to his op ed.
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I guess you'll be OK with DIS. I was seeing a $2.50 bid/ask gap in Wyndham this morning. Ripe for manipulation.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I was mentioning White House links to Moderna upthread. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we find out one day they were pressured into issuing that release.
CYDY and Amazon? That's a huge turn around.
If you care to disclose, what percentage of your account is weighted towards CYDY (open to everyone here)? I'm trying to get a feel of what makes sense from some people posting here.
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Just trying to understand the mechanics of what happens overnight. Holding DIS for a little longer at least, did sell some other names today
eaganwildcats
Footballguy
Started out < 5% of total invested assets - now hovering around 10%. CYDY Bounce keeping me in the game.
Low point for me is about 3/20. Since then up ~ 25% which is in line with broad market rebound of ~23%. Probably would look quite a bit better sans tankers and some other poor decisions in my active accounts.
What trading platform do you use?
I have fidelity but besides the graph on the main screen (which goes back up to 2 years max), I don’t know of any way to see portfolio value over time, let alone plotting vs something else. Anyone know of any tricks in fidelity?
sporthenry
Footballguy
Add on that the put/call ratio is at local lows, lower than before all this started. The monthly, just equity put/call ratio is as low as it was from back in 2014. I think that data is a bit cherrypicked since it uses monthly and excludes indices but the broader point remains.
I'm a big believer in the max pain trade. Given this has been one of the most hated rallies in history, it's not completely surprising. They've been squeezing bears, it may seem like they finally capitulated. Saw a tweet say Monday was the largest short covering day of the year. So just as someone here was advocating for selling puts since you're on the same side of the house, what do you think the ones selling calls are going to do?
That would also coincide with the max pain trade for a lot of retail guys. Have to imagine they'll take the rug out from Robinhood and all those investors shortly. I know the money market fund data but anecdotally seems like a lot of people here seem fully invested. Even saw someone upset they left 10-15% of their money on the sidelines during this.
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I appreciate the discussion and recommendations in this thread. I’ve recently sold MGM, BLMN, and DIS as many here.
And as the lone CYDY bear, let me share an update on one potential HIV treatment, which I have mentioned in the past:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200517005088/en/Global-HIV-prevention-study-stop-early-ViiV
I think it’s clear this was a great outcome, but I’m not sure of the plans to commercialize. ThIs outcome has affected Gilead’s stock price, who is the current leader in this space. There are 3 big pharma players in this game. My, (I believe informed) opinion is CYDY doesn’t have much room in this indication. My speculation has always been this is why they ended up partnered with Vyera.
And as the lone CYDY bear, let me share an update on one potential HIV treatment, which I have mentioned in the past:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200517005088/en/Global-HIV-prevention-study-stop-early-ViiV
I think it’s clear this was a great outcome, but I’m not sure of the plans to commercialize. ThIs outcome has affected Gilead’s stock price, who is the current leader in this space. There are 3 big pharma players in this game. My, (I believe informed) opinion is CYDY doesn’t have much room in this indication. My speculation has always been this is why they ended up partnered with Vyera.
eaganwildcats
Footballguy
The screenshot there is from Personal Finance (link that gives me money if you sign up). I know many are against account aggregators but I used to use Mint but jumped on board Personal Capital like a year ago and quite enjoy it. I am never sure if it's really tracking properly given additional contributions etc. but it seems "good enough" most of the time.
To the specific question, Robinhood is where I do most my trading until I finally opened a TD account for CYDY so now have some funds there (thinkorswim is nice). Have some $ in M1 for more "set it and forget" it taxable / IRA accounts then 401k & wife's 403b is through Fidelity (though I don't know of any tracking tips never really even log on there).
The bottom. I was down 30% and 35%, but some stocks were down further. CYDY, ZM, AMZN helped buffer the down % and I did make some purchases on the way down. I should have done more but I’d bet 5-10% of my rise was from the purchases the week before and of the bottom. I didn’t even get in BA or Bloomin Casinos. That said 1/3rd down and 60% up is basically up 5-10% which is where my two trading accounts are from the 2/20 peak. Since the S&P is down 12% from that peak, I’ll take that. Our 401ks just like most folks track the indexes so those are still down like the indexes.
I’m your huckleberry. I don’t mind but I’ll give you a range. CYDY is around 5-10% of my trading (non-401ks). It’s probably too much and is a sizable amount, but most of my shares have tripled so part of it is a good reason it’s up. I should probably trim some, but I don’t mind letting it roll a bit.
Capella
Footballguy
Cydy is only 1.5% of my account. Mainly amazon, flipping INO even though now I wish I held it, bloomin 3 times, Disney this week, MGM, and had a big hit on boeing. Took a small cut with the cruise lines but bailed early.
Oh and I sold off my Apple. Put that into S&P index fund.
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Capella
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I guess that no one worries about capital gains while selling short term? Or is everyone in a tax-advantaged account?
TripItUp
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Warrior
Footballguy
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
If your purpose is long term holding--I like Disney a lot. I do think it will probably bounce around--and you probably could sell and buy some back lower if you wanted--but if you like what you own--I might just hold and just acquire more if it does drop again. I actually think their Disney plus will grow keep growing in subscriptions--and I know they'll be streaming Hamilton the musical soon. I'd expect a spike in subscriptions just on that alone.Capella said:
Capella
Footballguy
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Am I missing something? Capital gains for me almost 35% being in CA. I think people in here are at least at 22% for short term capital gains.Capella said:
Are you guys tax harvesting that much?
It might be a consideration for long term, i.e. if you own something for 10 months, you should consider the implications because it could be a 15-25% tax increase if you sell before 12 months. For the discussions you see here, many are short terms holds. When you are talking short term, yes there is a bigger tax hit, but they are worried about that because they don't want to hold the stock for 12 months or anywhere close to that. If your tax rate isn't that high, it's not a big deal. My wife and I both work, so it would be way more of a consideration for me, if it's in my taxable account.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
Is there a way to avoid the 35% capital gains tax without holding the stonk for a year?
I've always assumed it was part of the package when day trading (or weekly/ monthly trading) as so many in here like to do.
Specifically, I'd be curious as how to shelter tens of thousands of dollars gained by selling NERV puts in one month. TIA.
#bossmanvswallstreet #luckhasnothingtodowithit #freemoney
chet
Footballguy
I agree the HIV space is crowded but it's CYDY's least valuable indication. They will get approval, and have estimated 20-40k patients will use their therapy annually after ramp up. Their therapy has no side effects, doesn't develop resistance and is more effective than what's available now or in the pipeline.Whyatt said:
COVID-19 and cancer are both potential game changers for CYDY. The issue is that big pharma is taking all of the oxygen in the room--see this scathing interview of William Haseltine where he eviscerates Moderna and Gilead. That's ok--CYDY has to continue to execute, not make any more stupid mistakes and achieve results. Their time to shine will come.
Big pharma's arrogance and influence is becoming much more evident. Their willingness to tout ineffective therapies and actively work to undermine small companies with potentially effective treatments is ethically dubious and is costing lives. To be clear, this rant is not directed toward @Whyatt. I strongly encourage everyone to watch the interview linked above for a little insight into the games that big pharma is playing.
#notselling
Don Hutson
Footballguy
If you quit your job, you'll pay a significantly lower percentage. I believe anyone who makes less than $40,000/year pays a short term capital gains tax of 10%.
Thanks for this, also not selling. But wondering whether this inspires you to short Moderna? I don't think GILD warrants it as their PPS has been steady in the high 60s / low 70s even without the Covid angle but MRNA feels like it could fall from the 70s back into the 30s or even 20s as that's where it was just a bit ago. MRNA puts are expensive but an epic fall could still be in the cards if what you say is true.
There isn’t but you may not be in the highest tax bracket. Short term capital gains tax is basically income tax. It would be as if you got a bonus at work and the took no income tax out of the bonus. You would owe that income tax as an extra payment to the IRS. The only difference is that you don’t get social security and Medicare also taken out.
Since I am starting to look at future retirement locations, this peaked my interest as the states have a wide variance on how they tax capital gains. If one state has no capital gains tax (like Tennessee) and another a high one (like California) or maybe treat it like income tax then that could be a big difference in tax bills in retirement when you taxable accounts are likely earning via capital gains and dividends.
Jayrok
Footballguy
Thanks for posting this. It's refreshing to see an expert in the field offer a bit of a reality check here. News of any type of success, even with zero data, is going to stoke optimism of course. But these big companies know the rules and how their processes work. They're taking advantage of a public that is desperate for a miracle vaccine, which may not come.chet said:
The female interviewer seemed upset with him. Maybe she has a stake in Moderna.
djmich
Footballguy
Yah, she was terrribleThanks for posting this. It's refreshing to see an expert in the field offer a bit of a reality check here. News of any type of success, even with zero data, is going to stoke optimism of course. But these big companies know the rules and how their processes work. They're taking advantage of a public that is desperate for a miracle vaccine, which may not come.
The female interviewer seemed upset with him. Maybe she has a stake in Moderna.
Hell no. The way the market is right now, this is free money. You could throw #### against the wall and it would go up.ConstruxBoy said:
If the options are don't make $ and pay no taxes on zero vs make $ and pay whatever the tax is, I'll choose make $ sitting in front of a computer screen every time.
Moderna would crash if anything really negative came out or a competing vaccine was better. They have a $27B market cap with negligible revenue ($8M last quarter). They are 100% based on the hope that they succeed.
Random
Footballguy
chet
Footballguy
You can offset any gain with a loss. Using losses to offset ST gains is their best use.
chet
Footballguy
In the best of circumstances, shorting is a dangerous game. The present administration seems intent on having some kind of vaccine by Election Day and as of now, Moderna is the golden child. Not saying you’re wrong, just saying you could be right and still wrong.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Another 2.4mm jobs lost. 38mm total, a lot of these could be lost forever and not as many will come back on as quickly as anticipated. It feels like this market as a whole is completely detaching from reality, valuations currently mean nothing, and the market continues just chugging along. It really makes no sense to me and I don’t see how a path higher is sustainable unless something major happens soon.
Does everyone get their job back during the back half of 2020 and life resumes as normal in 2021? Is that the bull thesis? It’s starting to feel like that theory is becoming more and more improbable.
Does everyone get their job back during the back half of 2020 and life resumes as normal in 2021? Is that the bull thesis? It’s starting to feel like that theory is becoming more and more improbable.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Thanks for posting this, he made some great points there.chet said:
CR69
Footballguy
Or a Roth/traditional IRA too. You get hit With income tax before and after, but you can trade with no worries about in between taxes. It makes any sell decisions just based on if you are happy with the sales price.
