Stock Thread (77 Viewers)

[FreeBaGeL]

I try not to discriminate when investing, but man, Spirit is such a terrible airline I’d never feel good about owning stock in that company.  Throw what’s sure to be a long and slow recovery for airlines in there, and why would you invest in them over someone like DAL?  

Invest is different than trade.  For trading the whole industry moves together but Spirit moves a little faster so if you're betting on the industry bouncing at some point it may as well be the one that will likely have the largest short-term rebound.

 

[SayWhat?]

Invest is different than trade.  For trading the whole industry moves together but Spirit moves a little faster so if you're betting on the industry bouncing at some point it may as well be the one that will likely have the largest short-term rebound.

That’s fair.  

 

[beef]

@AdamMancini4 (3h)

$SPX Getting its first pullback leg in a month. I've posted loss of 3180 would see 3130 and it was a straight shot down after bulls failed post-FOMC. Key relief bounce lvls today are 3120 then 3070 (main trendline from March lows) to backtest 3180.Very important bulls hold those

Since folks like Mancini. I've also seen 3,000 as a key point in regards to gamma. I.e. dealers will start exacerbating moves below 3,000 and not dampening them as they are now. So seems like at  an important level here. Bears could push below 3,000 and see what happens. 

Thanks. 

I got used to @lod001 posting these updates.  Haven't seen him lately.  You good lod?

 

[steelerfan1]

Still like this at 105 Todem or do we wait for a reset? Saw you were in at the 90s as a good deal. Thanks

Got in at an even $100 but looks like i could have done better. didn't want to get too greedy. kinda wish i waited on TSN yesterday though...

 

[BassNBrew]

I was basically 100% cash in my brokerage on tuesday.  I am now like almost 50% deployed.  Talk about bad timing.  I wasnt really trying to "time" anything just wanted to get some money in when I saw a little pullback.  Then some more when there was more pullback.

Now I am sad.  I wish I was busier at work tuesday and yesterday so I wouldnt have even looked at any of this stuff

I even thought about some TVIX the other day when it went up a little even when the indexes were up a little.  I literally can not pick something that works.  

Not gonna lie.  This is making me want to sell and then buy at another time.  But history tells me I should Costanza it.

Dude, if you're only 50% deployed then you are way ahead of the game.  Not cool to cry about coming in second place when 1000 people finished behind you.

I try not to discriminate when investing, but man, Spirit is such a terrible airline I’d never feel good about owning stock in that company.  Throw what’s sure to be a long and slow recovery for airlines in there, and why would you invest in them over someone like DAL?  

Because SAVE has been making us huge money while DAL hasn't?  It's all about the volatility and how the sector is doing.

 

[kevzilla]

This is what I call a set it and forget long term compounder.

Well-run utilities are the path to becoming an accidental millionaire. My old man will confirm.

 

[ghostguy123]

Dude, if you're only 50% deployed then you are way ahead of the game.  Not cool to cry about coming in second place when 1000 people finished behind you.

Problem is I barely made anything during the huge recovery because I had no idea what I was doing.  Pretty sure I am in dead last place on this board.

 

[cosjobs]

I was basically 100% cash in my brokerage on tuesday.  I am now like almost 50% deployed.  Talk about bad timing.  I wasnt really trying to "time" anything just wanted to get some money in when I saw a little pullback.  Then some more when there was more pullback.

Now I am sad.  I wish I was busier at work tuesday and yesterday so I wouldnt have even looked at any of this stuff

I even thought about some TVIX the other day when it went up a little even when the indexes were up a little.  I literally can not pick something that works.  

Not gonna lie.  This is making me want to sell and then buy at another time.  But history tells me I should Costanza it.

ride the momentum

if your portfolio is going up, stay with it

if its going down, start liquidating

that always works

until it doesn't

 

[Todem]

Well-run utilities are the path to becoming an accidental millionaire. My old man will confirm.

I LOVE utilities. 

I am always over weight in them.....even when the so called “experts” on tv rotate out.....I buy more. Never has failed me......ever.

 

[-OZ-]

I was basically 100% cash in my brokerage on tuesday.  I am now like almost 50% deployed.  Talk about bad timing.  I wasnt really trying to "time" anything just wanted to get some money in when I saw a little pullback.  Then some more when there was more pullback.

Now I am sad.  I wish I was busier at work tuesday and yesterday so I wouldnt have even looked at any of this stuff

I even thought about some TVIX the other day when it went up a little even when the indexes were up a little.  I literally can not pick something that works.  

Not gonna lie.  This is making me want to sell and then buy at another time.  But history tells me I should Costanza it.

it just makes me want to go completely back to the set and forget portfolio and turn off the news. 

 

[GoBirds]

I LOVE utilities. 

I am always over weight in them.....even when the so called “experts” on tv rotate out.....I buy more. Never has failed me......ever.

Is PPL a utility or more of an oil/pipeline play? I’ve been in D but probably should look to add some others as well. 

 

[skycriesmary]

Problem is I barely made anything during the huge recovery because I had no idea what I was doing.  Pretty sure I am in dead last place on this board.

Not sure about that...hold my beer.

 

[McBokonon]

Sitting at about 45% cash after selling off ATVI and CRM yesterday. Added a little to JPM and TSN. Still think we need to get slapped down a little more because my watch list still looks expensive. I’m down to only 7 what I would call core holdings that I trade other stocks around or add to on dips (JPM, AAPL, SE, ABT, MSFT, V, PEP). TSN I’m about 50% in before it becomes a core holding. Wouldn’t mind a second losing day for CRM to get back into it. 
 

 

[sporthenry]

Is PPL a utility or more of an oil/pipeline play? I’ve been in D but probably should look to add some others as well. 

PPL is pure play utility and I believe completely regulated (could be wrong but at worst, mostly regulated). The only issue is they own a UK business which has lagged in the past. I never followed the UK much but it has had headwinds in the past which caused it to trade at a discount to others. But it should trade richer than a D since it's all regulated. Lower returns but lower variability. 

 

[pecorino]

Stonks down again ... 

why am I not seeing any bargains?

Everything that I want more of is only down slightly ...

Did you see my post about fat NKLA puts to sell? They have your name written all over them. IV around 400%.

As for bargains, how about WFC, TCO, JPM, and AGRX? I bought some shares of all of those this morning plus 200 more BLMN because todem told me to.

 

[humpback]

I was basically 100% cash in my brokerage on tuesday.  I am now like almost 50% deployed.  Talk about bad timing.  I wasnt really trying to "time" anything just wanted to get some money in when I saw a little pullback.  Then some more when there was more pullback.

Now I am sad.  I wish I was busier at work tuesday and yesterday so I wouldnt have even looked at any of this stuff

I even thought about some TVIX the other day when it went up a little even when the indexes were up a little.  I literally can not pick something that works.  

Not gonna lie.  This is making me want to sell and then buy at another time.  But history tells me I should Costanza it.

Learn from it.

The vast majority of people will underperform the S&P over the long run and you aren't likely to be the exception. Dollar cost average into low cost index funds and maintain your sanity (and account balances).

 

[sporthenry]

@AdamMancini4 (3h)

$SPX Getting its first pullback leg in a month. I've posted loss of 3180 would see 3130 and it was a straight shot down after bulls failed post-FOMC. Key relief bounce lvls today are 3120 then 3070 (main trendline from March lows) to backtest 3180.Very important bulls hold those

Since folks like Mancini. I've also seen 3,000 as a key point in regards to gamma. I.e. dealers will start exacerbating moves below 3,000 and not dampening them as they are now. So seems like at  an important level here. Bears could push below 3,000 and see what happens. 

I'm not Mancini but I'd probably advise folks to just sit on their hands right now. Market seems very fickle right now. Slow bleed down this afternoon. Bulls stepped in but resumed selling. I'd probably wait to see a rejection and back above 3,070 before putting more money to work. The bottom could fall out here. 

 

[Redwes25]

Well we had to know this was coming

 

[CR69]

Learn from it.

The vast majority of people will underperform the S&P over the long run and you aren't likely to be the exception. Dollar cost average into low cost index funds and maintain your sanity (and account balances).

This is what I do for about 90% of our invested assets. The other 10% I have in some individual companies I like and now some options haha. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Learn from it.

The vast majority of people will underperform the S&P over the long run and you aren't likely to be the exception. Dollar cost average into low cost index funds and maintain your sanity (and account balances).

That's what my 403b is all about.  100% equity index funds.  

 

[stbugs]

it just makes me want to go completely back to the set and forget portfolio and turn off the news. 

I bought some shares this week for long term and seeing them down a few % is annoying but 3 years from now that’s almost meaningless. If they drop a ton, we’ll them I’m deploying the last of my cash and sleeping well.

 

[kevzilla]

Might hold on overnight, but will likely hit the eject button on TVIX today. I've been way offside on this trade for weeks; down about 30% Monday, up about 13% now.

 

[Steeler]

I'm not Mancini but I'd probably advise folks to just sit on their hands right now. Market seems very fickle right now. Slow bleed down this afternoon. Bulls stepped in but resumed selling. I'd probably wait to see a rejection and back above 3,070 before putting more money to work. The bottom could fall out here. 

I don't know anything ( if you look at the DKNG chart you can see which day I made a purchase  ) but I like following Mancini.   Any idea what his next lower target is since we've already broken 3070? 

 

[beef]

Might hold on overnight, but will likely hit the eject button on TVIX today. I've been way offside on this trade for weeks; down about 30% Monday, up about 13% now.

I was thinking about your TVIX play.  I bailed on mine too soon.  Just a spectator now and I'm not going to go chasing it.    

 

[McBokonon]

$FOUR is down to where it opened on IPO Day. They have a lot of hospitality customers so maybe there's some correlation there. I'd like to sell a put or two here but they're not available yet.

 

[humpback]

That's what my 403b is all about.  100% equity index funds.  

So you should have a direct comparison- which account has performed better?

 

[steelerfan1]

Problem is I barely made anything during the huge recovery because I had no idea what I was doing.  Pretty sure I am in dead last place on this board.

hold my beer...

 

[[icon]]

So how much farther do we think this runs down?

 

[Warrior]

it just makes me want to go completely back to the set and forget portfolio and turn off the news. 

This is the correct answer, just as it's always been. 

 

[-OZ-]

So how much farther do we think this runs down?

I was sitting half in cash for son #4's college account (after selling off the Disney shares a while ago). Now he's 100% VTI. 4th grade, so 9 years or so before he needs it. 

 

[ghostguy123]

So you should have a direct comparison- which account has performed better?

My brokerage is a few months old.  I am basically dead even at this exact moment.  

Meaning........my 403b index funds have destroyed my brokerage.

Fat drunk and stupid is no way to manage a brokerage account. 

Edit....over the past 3 days I seem to only be down about 3-4 grand in my brokerage.  I cant imagine with the amount of money some of you guys have how these violent swings feel for you.  Both the good and the bad ones.

 

[Warrior]

Well we had to know this was coming

The usual suspects were saying this drop was just around the corner a month or two ago...Then the market proceeded to rise 30%. Now that it has pulled back 5%, no doubt you'll be seeing a lot of "I called this! I told you!" posts. Lol. 

Invest long-term, ignore the jokers who think they're beating the market, and never pay a broker 2% of your wealth each year to under-perform the market like 99% of them statistically do over a 10+ year investment timeline. 

...Or don't and retire 15 years later than you could have. 

 

[sporthenry]

I don't know anything ( if you look at the DKNG chart you can see which day I made a purchase  ) but I like following Mancini.   Any idea what his next lower target is since we've already broken 3070? 

@AdamMancini4 - 1m

As usual when volatility picks up in $SPX its slicing through levels but were only back to where we were last Tuesday. 3070 still important being the main channel support of the March lows.Recapturing on the backtest would trigger a squeeze.Otherwise 3010-3020 200dma next support

 

[skycriesmary]

hold my beer...

I've got 1500 shares of CYDY at a cost basis of about $3.50. That's dragged everything else down substantially. I think I take the loser cup.

 

[Charlie Harper]

it just makes me want to go completely back to the set and forget portfolio and turn off the news. 

I couldn't imagine the pressure of actively managing my actual retirement. It's stressful/fun just for play money.

 

[matuski]

The usual suspects were saying this drop was just around the corner a month or two ago...Then the market proceeded to rise 30%. Now that it has pulled back 5%, no doubt you'll be seeing a lot of "I called this! I told you!" posts. Lol. 

Invest long-term, ignore the jokers who think they're beating the market, and never pay a broker 2% of your wealth each year to under-perform the market like 99% of them statistically do over a 10+ year investment timeline. 

...Or don't and retire 15 years later than you could have. 

If you weren't trading the last couple few months, you missed out big time imo.  Those chances don't come around very often.

I'm just a joker that beat the ever living #### out of the market.

 

[SayWhat?]

Dude, if you're only 50% deployed then you are way ahead of the game.  Not cool to cry about coming in second place when 1000 people finished behind you.

Because SAVE has been making us huge money while DAL hasn't?  It's all about the volatility and how the sector is doing.

Sure, I agree at the bottom it presented more upside than DALand I’m glad you made “huge money” (just like you could have on 75% of the stocks out there over the same time frame).  But now?  Does it still offer boatloads upside?   It’s a still at a bit of a discount compared to DAL, so if you’re still confident in the short term upside and essentially day trading it, go for it.   But it’s a terrible airline in an industry that’s going to be impacted long term.  So I guess my confidence level isn’t the same if you’re looking for anything other than a quick flip, and I think there’s plenty of downside from $17.

 

[Sand]

PPL nice price here. Boring utility...I know....but that yield is awesome.

At that yield I'm happy holding until my descendants get the shares.  That price is right along a nice resistance line, so as reasonable an entry point as I can see.  I bought a starter position on this one.  Nibbled at BLMN and SAVE.  And watching CCL and NCLH decimate my play account on the day - still up on both, but man they move quick.

This week I've gotten back about 3.5% versus the market, which is pretty nice.  I'd love to see another 5% dip to really put some money back in.   Long bonds were ridiculously oversold and are now coming back from breaking below a 3 sigma move.  Should have bough more early this week.

Feds suggest worst of the crisis is over, stonks go down

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

 

[sporthenry]

The usual suspects were saying this drop was just around the corner a month or two ago...Then the market proceeded to rise 30%. Now that it has pulled back 5%, no doubt you'll be seeing a lot of "I called this! I told you!" posts. Lol. 

Invest long-term, ignore the jokers who think they're beating the market, and never pay a broker 2% of your wealth each year to under-perform the market like 99% of them statistically do over a 10+ year investment timeline. 

...Or don't and retire 15 years later than you could have. 

Hey, a reasonable post and on a down day to boot. I don't disagree and besides the fact I'll never do an I told you so, I'll also acknowledge I missed the run up. I can throw my hat into the ring for worst performer here given I moved mostly to cash in the middle of the sell off and still am sitting on too much.

So you are right. Might as well call me Druckenmiller. But I'm also looking for a larger than 5% pull back. We'll see. Seems like we're in the middle of this move. I'm not here to play I told you so. I'm here to make money and enjoy the debates and hearing different sides of the coin. 

 

[Steeler]

@AdamMancini4 - 1m

As usual when volatility picks up in $SPX its slicing through levels but were only back to where we were last Tuesday. 3070 still important being the main channel support of the March lows.Recapturing on the backtest would trigger a squeeze.Otherwise 3010-3020 200dma next support

I got tired of hitting F5 for his next update - you got it one minute after he posted.

 

[[icon]]

The usual suspects were saying this drop was just around the corner a month or two ago...Then the market proceeded to rise 30%. Now that it has pulled back 5%, no doubt you'll be seeing a lot of "I called this! I told you!" posts. Lol. 

Invest long-term, ignore the jokers who think they're beating the market, and never pay a broker 2% of your wealth each year to under-perform the market like 99% of them statistically do over a 10+ year investment timeline. 

...Or don't and retire 15 years later than you could have. 

That's right... keep telling yourself that. 

Don't worry buddy... Another + 10 or 20% and you'll be back to even where you missed selling pre-crash.  

The real shark play is selling before the crash and buying/trading on the way up…  

 

[sporthenry]

I got tired of hitting F5 for his next update - you got it one minute after he posted.

Yeah, I'm just watching my screens today like a hawk. Looks like 100 DMA is 2,950 while 50 DMA is 2,892 so those are probably next levels so maybe more resistance below 3,000 than I thought. But still think it could trigger some accelerated selling.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

My brokerage is a few months old.  I am basically dead even at this exact moment.  

Meaning........my 403b index funds have destroyed my brokerage.

Unless those index funds are all in QQQ I can't imagine your 403b is doing much better than break even over the last few months.  It's probably at a small loss over that timeframe, no?

 

[ghostguy123]

Unless those index funds are all in QQQ I can't imagine your 403b is doing much better than break even over the last few months.  It's probably at a small loss over that timeframe, no?

I opened my brokerage when the market was way down.  The market had gone up a lot since then, my brokerage has not.  I suck

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

Buy the BA dip? (steered well clear of it before now but man it's tempting)

 

[stbugs]

That's right... keep telling yourself that. 

Don't worry buddy... Another + 10 or 20% and you'll be back to even where you missed selling pre-crash.  

The real shark play is selling before the crash and buying/trading on the way up…  

Not always. It’s very hard to time it perfectly. The real shark move is to buy the right stuff. I rode it out and I’m probably around 10% above February highs even with today. Riding out the downturn also means you rode the waves up and I’m sorry but most people aren’t timing the exact day to sell and day to buy back in. You see it even in here the guys who got out in time but couldn’t quite push it all back in and then miss out. Anyway, not trying to argue, maybe you did great, but I’m pretty happy with being up over the S&P around 40% this past year.

 

[stbugs]

Buy the BA dip? (steered well clear of it before now but man it's tempting)

Not sure. I’ve still got a little more powder and I may hold off to see if this dip continues tomorrow, i.e. a longer downturn. Definitely don’t see March lows hitting again, but not sure if this is only a one day thing, probably not. 

 

[Fan of Charles McCoy]

If we keep going down, I'm ready to throw more cash into Fidelity to buy more of the Todem long term holds.

 

[Todem]

Is PPL a utility or more of an oil/pipeline play? I’ve been in D but probably should look to add some others as well. 

They have some pipeline and oil exposure but they are a power provider first and foremost. Hence they have a little more volatility than a tradtional utility. Great company. Getting hammered today....cheap stock.

 

[ex-ghost]

They have some pipeline and oil exposure but they are a power provider first and foremost. Hence they have a little more volatility than a tradtional utility. Great company. Getting hammered today....cheap stock.

In for a small amount. Nice to buy something to hold. So stressful buying and selling within days. Totally fun, and we are making money, but nice to have something to set and forget for awhile.