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Just bought more PENN puts. It's completely disconnected from the rest of the industry and DDTG can only prop it up for so long. 10/20 30p 🤞🤞

 
DKNG under $40 seems enticing but are there any dilution concerns with this thing? Yahoo shows 312 million shares outstanding but a float of only 229 million. That’s not as bad as NKLA (361 million shares outstanding and 110 million float), but it seems like there could be some significant downward pressure on the price once those 83 million shares are unlocked, no?

 
sporthenry said:
I don't think your 2/3 number is right. In fact, I think it's really wrong unless you've seen something recently. For one, I've harped on how dilution and debt aren't 'free.' But beyond that, the Russell 3000, which accounts for ~98% of US equities is only down ~8.4% since Feb 19 peak. It peaked at $35.3T which would now mean it's at about $32.3T. So you're still down ~$3T. When I looked a few weeks ago, while FAANGM has been resilient, AMZN was the only stock that added massively to its market cap and that was $250bn. So the rest of the market likely isn't down much more than 10%. 

You obviously have the $3T from the Fed. I read somewhere that during the closure, we lost ~$1T/month but that number seemed finger in the air. So I suppose you can justify we can go back to ATHs, get that $3T back since the Fed essentially backstopped the $3T we lost during the shutdown. Now this is all under the assumption that it is a V-shape. 
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Maybe I'm wrong.  Every financial stock, transportation stock, retail stock, restaurant stock, etc is way down.  Now most every biotech stock I own has doubled.  My point is that this entire market isn't overvalued, certain sectors are overvalued.

 
BassNBrew said:
Anyone still trading LK?  It's set to open down 15%.
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I still had a 100 shares, but I’ve been ignoring it. So glad I just bought a small amount and didn’t buy it when it was way up.

Welp, just got tired of holding that crap. Should have sold when it popped up a few weeks ago but I just didn’t care. Even though it messes a tiny bit with my cost basis, just turned that into 100 shares of CYDY. F it, it was just going to delist and then go to somewhere I couldn’t trade it. Rather add a tiny bit more to the rocket ship.

 
CR69 said:
Just bought more PENN puts. It's completely disconnected from the rest of the industry and DDTG can only prop it up for so long. 10/20 30p 🤞🤞
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This thing is a pig. I may close some shorts and just buy some puts as well. Was looking at Jan 21 25P or 30P.

 
BassNBrew said:
Hello shipping buddies like @sporthenry  Did you notice that 11% dividend hit you account yesterday for FRO?  Yes, that was for one quarter best I can tell.
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Yeah, it is a tough investment because it will tank your account on the day of ex-div and then money just sort of sneaks into your account. I'm so tempted to buy some more tankers but I think I'll stay disciplined. I clearly don't know everything that goes into this. Guess stocks were down due to 'Bunkers SIRE" yesterday, of which, I have no idea what that is. I still think it's a fine investment. Hannisdahl, the bearish analyst on Twitter, gets giddy that VLCC rates drop to $50k as somehow proving his thesis is right while DHT's breakeven for its spot is $2.5k. To justify current prices, it'd seem like you'd need prices sub $20k or even sub $10k in the near-term.

 
sporthenry said:
This thing is a pig. I may close some shorts and just buy some puts as well. Was looking at Jan 21 25P or 30P.
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Figures it would run up another 4% after my order goes through. This thing has nowhere near the revenue of its competitors but it's carrying similar debt levels. I don't get it. 

 
Another great day in the market. Up 1% compared to S&P. Just feels like it can’t continue but it is. C’mon CYDY let’s uplist, save a ton of lives and shoot for the moon.

 
CR69 said:
Figures it would run up another 4% after my order goes through. This thing has nowhere near the revenue of its competitors but it's carrying similar debt levels. I don't get it. 
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I just bought some weekly $35 puts. Gambling but up 14% on a ####ty upgrade and a Cramer interview. Sports betting thing seems completely overdone. They're the most levered casino when you account for their leases. Only benefit is regional casino are obviously bouncing back faster than Vegas to start. But not sure which will be more resilient long-term. 

 
sporthenry said:
I just bought some weekly $35 puts. Gambling but up 14% on a ####ty upgrade and a Cramer interview. Sports betting thing seems completely overdone. They're the most levered casino when you account for their leases. Only benefit is regional casino are obviously bouncing back faster than Vegas to start. But not sure which will be more resilient long-term. 
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Most of the regional casinos are in the Midwest and South though which we know aren't doing so hot right now. I went for longer puts because (like MGM) I'm banking on a huge drop over the next month. 

 
BassNBrew said:
Maybe I'm wrong.  Every financial stock, transportation stock, retail stock, restaurant stock, etc is way down.  Now most every biotech stock I own has doubled.  My point is that this entire market isn't overvalued, certain sectors are overvalued.
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I suppose the other thing that you have to consider, that I also struggle with is that while your $1 in AMZN and BLMN seem the same to you, the difference in market caps are drastic. Perhaps that was your point, to the retail investor, still could be some value. But when you look at the entire market, BLMN is a sneeze by AMZN. AMZN could buy BLMN 1,370 times over with its market cap. So I'm sure you are value hunting and seeing a lot of these stocks that are still down but even if they were back up to ATH, they'd barely put a dent in the broader market. I mean AAL is a $6bn market cap. AMZN is $1.37T. That difference is incomprehensible. 

 
sporthenry said:
Yeah, it is a tough investment because it will tank your account on the day of ex-div and then money just sort of sneaks into your account. I'm so tempted to buy some more tankers but I think I'll stay disciplined. I clearly don't know everything that goes into this. Guess stocks were down due to 'Bunkers SIRE" yesterday, of which, I have no idea what that is. I still think it's a fine investment. Hannisdahl, the bearish analyst on Twitter, gets giddy that VLCC rates drop to $50k as somehow proving his thesis is right while DHT's breakeven for its spot is $2.5k. To justify current prices, it'd seem like you'd need prices sub $20k or even sub $10k in the near-term.
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that 11% put me up 8% on FRO.  

 
CR69 said:
Most of the regional casinos are in the Midwest and South though which we know aren't doing so hot right now. I went for longer puts because (like MGM) I'm banking on a huge drop over the next month. 
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Oh no, I totally agree. I bought some long-dated puts as well. Will likely try to reduce my short when it pulls back and just play from the option side. But agree. I think 2Q earnings, when folks realize that rent doesn't stop will be eye opening. Their betting app isn't even live yet. 

I know others have mentioned it but sports books are like a rounding error for traditional casinos. I am sure it is a growth part and the illicit market is huge but competition is fierce. I suppose retail folks will likely only download one app so first mover between MGM, DKNG, FanDuel, and PENN is huge. But do you want retail or real money on your apps? Real money will likely use multiple apps and shop around for best deals / lines. Either way, the betting market seems almost more efficient than the stock market so isn't it just an exchange at that point?

 
sporthenry said:
I suppose the other thing that you have to consider, that I also struggle with is that while your $1 in AMZN and BLMN seem the same to you, the difference in market caps are drastic. Perhaps that was your point, to the retail investor, still could be some value. But when you look at the entire market, BLMN is a sneeze by AMZN. AMZN could buy BLMN 1,370 times over with its market cap. So I'm sure you are value hunting and seeing a lot of these stocks that are still down but even if they were back up to ATH, they'd barely put a dent in the broader market. I mean AAL is a $6bn market cap. AMZN is $1.37T. That difference is incomprehensible. 
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Exactly.  IMO for the market to be considered to be overpriced, AMZN (and friends) has to be overpriced.  I have yet to see anyone here indicate that they are going to trim their AMZN holdings.  We used to get guys in here talking about selling AMZN for a profit, those days seem long ago.

 
sporthenry said:
Oh no, I totally agree. I bought some long-dated puts as well. Will likely try to reduce my short when it pulls back and just play from the option side. But agree. I think 2Q earnings, when folks realize that rent doesn't stop will be eye opening. Their betting app isn't even live yet. 

I know others have mentioned it but sports books are like a rounding error for traditional casinos. I am sure it is a growth part and the illicit market is huge but competition is fierce. I suppose retail folks will likely only download one app so first mover between MGM, DKNG, FanDuel, and PENN is huge. But do you want retail or real money on your apps? Real money will likely use multiple apps and shop around for best deals / lines. Either way, the betting market seems almost more efficient than the stock market so isn't it just an exchange at that point?
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You're 100% right that the sportsbooks are a tiny fraction of the total income for casinos. The market is also similar to weed in that it's very fragmented with completely different regulations for each state. Hell, right now there's only one company approved in Oregon to offer mobile sports betting. 

And now it's up 7% since I bought my puts 🤦‍♂️

 
stbugs said:
This is what I care about for my non-401k accounts. The 401ks are more or less index funds.

I was up about 2.65% (thanks to CYDY and FSLY) and as long as I stay ahead of the market I’m happy.
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I thought I could take profits last week on FSLY and buy back cheaper.  :wall:

 
metoo said:
I thought I could take profits last week on FSLY and buy back cheaper.  :wall:
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Ouch. I can’t believe it’s almost $80. I’m planning to hold it for years but I really hope I can look back at it like I was buying Amazon at $9. No, I don’t think it will be a trillion dollar company just one of those 10x+ multi baggers. It’s already a 367% gainer for me across 2 buys.

Oh, it’s at $80 now in the time it took me to type this.

 
TripItUp said:
Feels like I missed the boat on FSLY...it is really taking off.
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Hop on board. I think I’ve mentioned it a bunch now. I got on at 19 in November and added more at 11 in March (not enough). Been a fun ride and I’ll be holding for a few more years.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I think I'm getting ready to bail. None of this makes sense, and we've gone from extreme fear to extreme greed. We're up big today bc some meaningless trade deal that never had any teeth is still on... Think about it, this almost daily we're up big on nothing. This is exuberance and my gains are incredible, as I think anyone with a pulse and a brokerage account is too. We've got double digit unemployment and that isn't letting up anytime soon. A good percentage of those jobs aren't coming back in the near future and it'll be years and years until we get down to where we were.

Either we're due for a huge pullback, or this time is different and the Fed has changed the game completely (which would mean this really isn't a market). Personally, I don't think there is much middle ground between those two.

Someone talk me off the ledge and tell me not to sell. 
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Well this bookends your comment pretty well - 

“Everything is expensive,” wrote Chris Watling, chief market strategist at Longview Economics, in a recent note. “80% of the markets we track have a valuation in the upper quartile relative to the market’s history -- the greatest percentage on record using data since the mid-1990s.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/-everything-is-expensive-as-global-stock-valuation-debate-rages

Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

The data implies that either returns will just be a lot lower going forward, since potential growth has already been priced in, or that many markets are poised for correction. Many people believe the former since Fed policy will continue as is for the foreseeable future.

 
sporthenry said:
Well this bookends your comment pretty well - 

“Everything is expensive,” wrote Chris Watling, chief market strategist at Longview Economics, in a recent note. “80% of the markets we track have a valuation in the upper quartile relative to the market’s history -- the greatest percentage on record using data since the mid-1990s.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/-everything-is-expensive-as-global-stock-valuation-debate-rages

Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

The data implies that either returns will just be a lot lower going forward, since potential growth has already been priced in, or that many markets are poised for correction. Many people believe the former since Fed policy will continue as is for the foreseeable future.
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As someone else mentioned, what's the alternative? Maybe buying rentals? but for most who are looking for truly passive investments that's not the ideal option.

 
BassNBrew said:
Can you please unpack this?
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I don't think you will be able to bet on team sports until next year, because there won;t be any team sports until next year.

We'll probably find out by 5 this afternoon- the deadline for MLBPA to accept the owners' proposal

 
BassNBrew said:
PSHZF?  I realize it's not a direct link.  Assumed his fund would see the profits from this idea.
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Got and yes, they are supposedly buying $1B of the $3B. That said, that’s the allotment so not sure how long they’d hold it. Looks like it would make up 20% of that holding company so your winnings could be a bit muted.

 
-OZ- said:
sporthenry said:
Well this bookends your comment pretty well - 

“Everything is expensive,” wrote Chris Watling, chief market strategist at Longview Economics, in a recent note. “80% of the markets we track have a valuation in the upper quartile relative to the market’s history -- the greatest percentage on record using data since the mid-1990s.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/-everything-is-expensive-as-global-stock-valuation-debate-rages

Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

The data implies that either returns will just be a lot lower going forward, since potential growth has already been priced in, or that many markets are poised for correction. Many people believe the former since Fed policy will continue as is for the foreseeable future.
Click to expand...
As someone else mentioned, what's the alternative? Maybe buying rentals? but for most who are looking for truly passive investments that's not the ideal option.
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Really making me do a lot of analysis on dividend producing stonks/ETFs, but would like to get them cheaper.

 
-OZ- said:
As someone else mentioned, what's the alternative? Maybe buying rentals? but for most who are looking for truly passive investments that's not the ideal option.
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The issue is it becomes a house of cards or ponzi scheme. I know those words are taboo but hear me out. I get TINA is real and the Fed has pushed income seekers out of markets either directly by buying their securities or indirectly by forcing them to buy something else for income. But it doesn't even seem like the bid for dividend stocks is that much larger. It is just stocks in general. I suppose there is the thought that this will create inflation and companies will be able to recognize and pass that through as opposed to just sitting in $s or Treasuries and losing buying power. But at the end of the day, if you're buying a stock with no or a small dividend and hoping for income, you need the stock to go up to really derive any income benefit and then sell it. And as far as I can tell, the only incremental buyer large enough to guarantee that is the Fed. Hence, how we get into this circular reference / House of Cards. Instead of having a healthy market for savers, we now have savers either putting money in speculative stocks or losing buying power. The only real way I see stocks continuing to go up is balance sheet expansion which just creates a larger problem down the road, not to mention, destroys most price discovery. All of this means future equity returns have to be lower and the potential cost if the Fed ever loses control is catastrophic. It's the same thing that gets people in trouble in any stock market. You have massive left tail risk. So you're upside is probably 3-5% yearly returns and your downside risk grows with every $ the Fed adds. 

 
Slapdash said:
Really making me do a lot of analysis on dividend producing stonks/ETFs, but would like to get them cheaper.
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Why dividend producing now? Is there just not the growth potential in stock prices?  

I don't mind a dividend in a good value stock, but I've generally not sought the dividend.

 
stbugs said:
Hop on board. I think I’ve mentioned it a bunch now. I got on at 19 in November and added more at 11 in March (not enough). Been a fun ride and I’ll be holding for a few more years.
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I'm long as well but when it went up 20% in one day I took profits. Now I'm looking crazy.

 
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