Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Who here is in Zscaler? That is crazy what it keeps doing. And then you've got Cloudflare kind of lapping them of late. Nuts.
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Stock Thread (74 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
There was a lot of discussion about Disney around these parts last summer. Over a 10 year period Disney looks like a better investment.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I just don’t see how these guys survive as a growing concern. Completely uninvestable IMO.
I don't watch his stuff. What's his schtick? Why are people so into him and the barstool stuff? Is he funny? I heard he does the one pizza bite thing too.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
oh boy, PSFE 
McBokonon
Footballguy
Only peripherally aware because I like to bet on sports and follow stocks but it seems like it’s basically a frat with a giant following of incels, people who say “woke” as an insult a lot, a few hot chicks, and stuff like that. I could be way off but I doubt it.
McBokonon
Footballguy
This is one SPAC that really seemed to make sense at the time but it’s been an unmitigated disaster.oh boy, PSFE
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I thought it showed a lot of promise, and liked a lot of what I read so kept buying in on "dips". If it doubled today, I'd still be down
. 
identikit
Footballguy
ChiefD
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
It might be and I bought it on the basis that Dis + would be a game changer during Covid and the return to the parks would be robust, but the only thing this stock did for me was lose 11% of my money. Nuts to that. I have no doubt that DIS will be a good investment over time but it doesn't pay a dividend currently so what's my incentive to hold?
Bah, good riddance, Mouse. Sold all and bought more BROS.
Eh, better but as @General Malaise said above there’s no dividend (kind of surprising) so it needs to grow.
Amazon if you go back has been a ridiculous gainer, so it doesn’t make Disney look better.
It’s just really surprising that Disney really hasn’t been a juggernaut investment. Go back to January 2000, yes almost 22 years ago and Disney was a $40 stock. It’s gone up 300% in almost 22 years. The S&P is up that without including dividends. With dividends over 22 years and Disney has been market underperforming for 22 years. If you look at 20 year return when it bottomed last March in the $80s meant it was just a double in 20 years, that’s a 3.5% a year type of return with no dividends. You could have bought 20 year CDs in 2000 at 5.5% and trounced Disney.
I just find it interesting that without a dividend that it’s praised so much as a set it and forget it stock.
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I tailed @Todem on it when he switched his opinion. It will be interesting to see where he is at on this stock now. He took a lot of crap from the mouseketeers last year. Now that the Covid restrictions have been lifted allowing legalized rape I figured they would be crushing it.
Why Bros? Per the info you sent, we are close to the price target for 2022-3. Unless you think it's a meme stock, they would have to execute perfectly to see much upside. I could see trading it, but I just don't see it as a long term hold. I suspect that's why people started bailing earlier in November. Great call, but I wouldn't be holding much past $80.
Let's compare it to FLGT that has a similair market cap. Bros has $250 million in debt and $50 million in cash. Flgt has one billion in cash and 6 million in long term debt.
Me!!!!!
Bought it at $45 in October of 2019. Up 656% and I bought a good chunk of it back then. It’s been delightful. Unfortunately, ZS and ZM were stocks I bought and unlike TTD, MDB and OKTA, I didn’t double up. I bought those three in both my IRA and brokerage accounts. Instead of doing the same with ZS and ZM, I bought one in each. I sold off almost all of my ZM at $570 so that worked out very well too.
ZS is my #3 stock now and I’m just rolling with it. No idea when or if it slows down, but that’s why I monitor the earnings reports to make sure it’s still rolling.
I also have NET as well, it has been a nice gainer. I didn’t buy a lot at the end of 2020, but it was a good buy. I should have back in May moved all my BAND over to NET like I was thinking. They’ve gone in opposite directions since then. F diversification!
Capella
Footballguy
I will say Disney added the genie thing to their app which just pulverizes customers even more, to the point of pain, so I would expect their park revenue to go up significantly in the next year. Whether that moves the stock needle enough for anybody to entertain it, that’s up to you. I have some, not a ton, not really enough to be interested in their day to day.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
This is one SPAC that really seemed to make sense at the time but it’s been an unmitigated disaster.oh boy, PSFE
Yeah, unfortunately in this one too via the wife. This is where limiting position size on these gambles helps...
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Disney has made a lot of acquisitions since 2000 and will continue to innovate. Its definitely not the same company it was 20 years ago
since then they have bought Pixar, Marvel, Hulu, Lucasfilm, 21st century Fox among others
The reason its a set and forget is because it is a safe play
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
I bought a little more Disney this morning on the dip
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Getting a bit of a bad vibe reading through some of the commentary on Twitter. When people are talking about suing management (CYDY) and looking into the amount of shorts (GME/AMC) I get some at least yellow flags. It looks like their partnership with FUBO is a big deal, but both companies are struggling together.I thought it showed a lot of promise, and liked a lot of what I read so kept buying in on "dips". If it doubled today, I'd still be down
I'll have to pay some close attention in coming weeks to see if it is one of those losses I want to harvest. Feels like an overreaction looking at the numbers IMO.
From early 2000, you made a lot more money if you bought a 20 year CD (if that even exists). Even including till now, it’s way underperformed the S&P since early 2020 if you reinvested dividends, which you would if you set and forget.
We just went through the glory years of Marvel and Star Wars sequels. Black Widow and Eternals will be interesting if they can keep it going at the same level. Disney+ has been out for 2 years now.
The returns really don’t say set it and forget it IMHO and I have Hulu Live and Disney+. No one watches Disney+ until a new series is on. I think that’s what may be a problem. Netflix is worth it because they add new stuff all the time and there’s a ton of stuff from other countries like Squid Game that people can watch. Disney+ needs to invest in a ton more new content to stay worth the price.
Don’t mean to be harsh on it. If you like it and think it will outperform no worries. I’m not sold that it will suddenly grow like crazy.
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Geez, that’s a haircut. I remember looking at PSFE based on notes in here. I will say that damn, so many of the SPACs we followed have been bad investments overall. I think I remember before the SPAC craze about how many SPACs (most) fail.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
It's been a mixed bag for sure, but the ones that I bought near NAV that have performed well really juice the overall returns. PSFE hurts more because it is one of the few I bought higher than NAV (BKSY too, but it is hanging in there). REE is a debacle post-SPAC. Then you have to balance it against good returns in things like SOFI, NVTS, DNMR, and SKIN that more than make up for the handful of losers.
If I have a chance over the holidays will have to see if I can update my overall tracker to see where the total return is at. It very likely turns out that putting that spare cash in the S&P would have been a better call, but less interesting.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes - I’m holding and hoping. I think there’s potential to turn things back around maybe even as soon as some point in 2022. I don’t think I’m going to use this dip as a chance to average down though anymore.
Oh, I definitely did well with SPACs. Sold LAZR in the $30s and RIDE at $28. Had OPEN and SOFI when they came out. Definitely successful for parking the money but damn most of them are well below peak and a ton way below the usual $10 pre merger price.
I think most of us did well last year because we were throwing cash in the pre merger ones and if you got lucky it worked out. I don’t think I ever put more than a couple or few grand so no huge returns overall but probably 20-30% on average, maybe more. Nice for parking money.
Most people in the SPAC craze came on late and were buying near highs.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Yup that was me at the beginning of the year, parking money for a home down payment in SPACs,. At the time there was seemingly little/no downside, and I hit on a few that provided some juiced returns. In hindsight I got a little lucky that I needed the money in spring and pulled it all out near the top of the frothiness.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Not sure I'm following your comment on legalized rape.
Why BROS? WHY NOT?
I'm feeding a winner. Winners get rewarded. Losers get kicked to the curb.*
*Narrator: They don't always get kicked the curb.
I have also already lost money on the BROS trade, so.....disregard me entirely.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I would like to kiss Energy Fuels right on the mouth. 
General Malaise
Footballguy
And Alphamin Resources, don't think I don't see you. Hai!
identikit
Footballguy
I would like to kiss Energy Fuels right on the mouth.
You'll need to take my seconds
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
A big part of the Disney thesis was that the pandemic was winding down and when the core businesses returned to normal you were essentially getting a free top 5 streaming business on top, based on the discount of the core business.
Of course as we now know the pandemic has lingered a lot longer than was anticipated and the core business is still facing headwinds from it. The parks are open again but international travel is still banned in many places or only just opened. Covid restrictions are still much tighter in many of Disney's non-American markets as well.
Movies and cruises are similarly affected.
The dividend suspension is pandemic related and, while extended, is still assumed to be temporary. This is very much a pandemic stock whose core business was every bit as impacted by the pandemic as boeing or the airlines but has performed much better.
I still think it was a fair recommendation every time it was recommended in here at $100, then $120, then $130 as a safe low downside option that still had upside. The pandemic lingering was a worst case scenario and it has still has netted most a solid gain from there. Obviously the market ran like crazy but had the market tanked it would likely still be holding up while all those growth stocks were blowing up people's accounts. Pandemic lingering and market blowing up were a worst case scenario but the only cost has been opportunity cost.
What they've done since 2000 doesn't mean a ton to me since none of the talk about it was in 2000 and this thread didn't even exist then. The DIS discussion in here was all 2020-onwards.
It's the same percentage off the March 2020 lows as Amazon despite its core business being something that was hurt by the pandemic while Amazon's core business (and really all of their businesses) was something that was helped by it. AAPL has outpaced it a bit up 240% since the pandemic lows while DIS is up 190%. At its peak a few weeks ago DIS was up 230%.
And that's in spite of the fact that the government never said "it is illegal to order stuff online" or "it is illegal to use a mobile phone" like they did with theme parks, cruises, and movies.
I still think there is plenty of meat on the bone for when things eventually fully get back to normal, which has taken longer than expected. But a safe staple stock that has shown it can survive literally anything including the government temporarily making 90% of its businesses illegal while still having a new growth component to it when the core business returns is a lot less attractive in a market where every growth stock has ballooned. Those have and did have a lot less downside protection though.
Another way to look at it is what would Amazon's growth looked like if its AWS success had come at the same time as online retail being shut down entirely? In a lot of ways those losses would have masked the AWS gains even though a slight gain in stock prices from AWS would have implied a much larger growth for the overall company when online retail returned. That's kind of where Disney is with the D+ growth alongside the core business being damaged. That core business damage has just extended longer than anticipated, but as of a week ago the stock was still up 35% from where it was originally discussed (obviously down a bit from that now). AMZN is up 11% over that same span.
Not trying to shill. Most Dow companies have been pretty boring the last year relative to growth. It's done a bit better than most of those despite unexpected headwinds after the pandemic seemed to be winding down.
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ericttspikes
Footballguy
Really interested to see what PFE does in the next few years. Unless I'm looking at bad EPS projections, they're looking at a P/E of 1.3 at today's price (EPS of 36.00 in '21 and 34.00 in '22) for the next few years and are brining in 100's of billions of dollars. I know they get slagged for being stagnant for 8 years or so and have an ok, not great dividend, but what is the top here? Do they increase the divi? Buy companies for growth? Buy shares? Curious how it plays out.
EDIT TO ADD: these numbers are completely bogus. Like WAY off. Not sure why, but I've noticed a lot of wrong info on financial sites. yahoo finance is the worst. Really have to learn to dig deeper and go straight to the reports and SEC docs themselves.
EDIT TO ADD: these numbers are completely bogus. Like WAY off. Not sure why, but I've noticed a lot of wrong info on financial sites. yahoo finance is the worst. Really have to learn to dig deeper and go straight to the reports and SEC docs themselves.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Like I posted about crypto, soon there will be so many they won't be special.
For my readers, think about what happened with the baseball card market in the 90's. Crypto and NFT following the exact same path.
somewhat rare and desirable<new entries into the market<over saturation<mostly worthless
Not sure I'm following your comment on legalized rape.
With the parks open they are allowed to sell $12 sodas again.
identikit
Footballguy
Gotcha but your numbers are off. It hit about $80 at the pandemic low. It’s up 100% not 190%. Apple is just under a triple from a $50s bottom. Amazon’s a bit over 110% but they only dropped about 20% so less than most. Disney stock got a huge bump from streaming even with the park closures. I don’t hate the stock but I was surprised at their longer term returns.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Oh, I have never nor will I ever step foot into one of those Disney parks, so I have no experience. Seems like a lot but isn't everything at Disney World or Land overpriced? My buddy took his 3 kids to Disney Land 10 years ago, bought each of them a pair of plastic mouse ears and almost fainted when the total was close to $100.
KGB
Footballguy
I agree most NFTs will be busts.
But not Disney characters and Star warsmaybe marvel for the younger gen
McBokonon
Footballguy
Heard an Industry focus podcast about $SEMR a week or so ago and added it to my watchlist. Decided to start a position today. Another company helping businesses get noticed out on the innerwebs. Lot of competition but they're customer agnostic (unlike a Google, for example.) Net revenue retention above 120%. IPO'd recently but is past most of the weird bumpy parts. I like the stock.
Capella
Footballguy
we were there today and my kid went to pick out an ornament. Didn’t have a price on it, went to the register and the lady said “that’s a 107 dollars and 20 cents”
I have a lot of experience in those parks and literally said WHAAAAAAAAT - takes a lot to shock me.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Did the ornament have cocaine inside of it?we were there today and my kid went to pick out an ornament. Didn’t have a price on it, went to the register and the lady said “that’s a 107 dollars and 20 cents”
That’s an epic fight. Mickey eating the girl’s head so she’s going for the balls. I mean, look at the mom trying to pull her baby to safety.
