David Dodds
Administrator
I got the confirmations I needed from Gamestop. I will be adding to my lofty position in the morning.
What was the confirmationI got the confirmations I needed from Gamestop. I will be adding to my lofty position in the morning.
Frog crossing the street only to be eaten by a cat who had on a blue scarf. How do you misinterpret that?What was the confirmation
I got the confirmations I needed from Gamestop. I will be adding to my lofty position in the morning.
I’m being serious…what was the confirmation?It is funny that the media and so-called experts will try and push this price lower as the real experts are salivating at getting both the news they wanted AND a discount in the morning.
Remember this discounted price a few months from now and ask yourself, why didn't I see what was so obvious to Dodds.
I going to roll the dice and take a position in GameStop tomorrow. People laughed at me when I bought Apple in 1981, and that worked out.It is funny that the media and so-called experts will try and push this price lower as the real experts are salivating at getting both the news they wanted AND a discount in the morning.
Remember this discounted price a few months from now and ask yourself, why didn't I see what was so obvious to Dodds.
I going to roll the dice and take a position in GameStop tomorrow. People laughed at me when I bought Apple in 1981, and that worked out.
It is funny that the media and so-called experts will try and push this price lower as the real experts are salivating at getting both the news they wanted AND a discount in the morning.
Remember this discounted price a few months from now and ask yourself, why didn't I see what was so obvious to Dodds.
I’m being serious…what was the confirmation?
I seem to recall at least a couple Gamestop bros in the FFA preaching everyone to buy at $250 a month or so back. It's around $168 now.
Why is now the right time?
I have read elsewhere about a possible NFT launch, that’s the game changer for me.Read what you want here, but the guy that BEAT Amazon in pet food is taking on Amazon again except with a better team, more money and shareholders holding with diamond hands.
- 5.2 million shares direct registered through Computershare as of the end of October. Reddit users have been aggressively direct registering shares AFTER this date. Conservatively Reddit users likely have 10-15 million shares locked up today with the transfer agent (outside of the DTCC control).
- Top 10 institutions (15.78 M) + top 10 mutual funds (7.78 M) + Ryan Cohen (9.0 M) + Direct Registered (5.2 M) shares = 37.76 M shares. That's 1/2 of the available shares. Once more get direct registered, the game will be up for SHFs that rehypothecated shares.
- Sales up 29%
- Adjusted Net Losses for Q1-Q3 2021 vs. Q1-Q3 2020, you get (189.8) vs. (268.4) so they lost LESS MONEY while growing sales by 29%.
- Have hired 200+ ecommerce seniors from Facebook, Amazon, Zulilly, etc. Have established additional headquarter operations in Boston and Seattle.
- No insider sales of company stock
- Fulfillment centers in Reno and New Jersey active. Customer care facility in Florida hiring 500 people.
- $1.4B cash on hand with no debt. They added a $500M credit line this quarter as well.
and this doesn't even factor in the rumored NFT Marketplace that they are expected to launch soon.
So I don't follow GameStop but these dudes sell used video games, figurines, and gift cards in an industry that is shifting to digital purchases directly onto consoles. I don't see it outside of the meme thing.
What do you define as a wide moat?No AMD is not. But don’t be scared of NVDA.
Let’s compare the giant gorilla that is AMZN (which I have owned for a very long time and will probably the rest of my life) with NVDA. Two different business’s in a lot of ways.....but let’s look:
AMZN
Rev Growth - 31%
Gross Margins - 41%
Return on Equity - 26%
Net Margins - 5.7%
Debt to Capitol - 35%
Current PE - 69
Forward PE - 87
NVDA
Rev Growth - 64%
Gross Margins - 64%
Return on Equity - 42%
Net Margins - 34%
Debt to Capitol - 26%
Current PE - 98
Forward PE - 60
NVDA has a massive runway of growth.....hence the risk premium. The stock will be 3-4 times higher than it is now within 5 years. So we missed the first 100%.....I am in for the next 400%.
Don't let a stock like this get away from you when the fundamentals are screaming incredible growth and runway for this new large cap tech.
Think about all those people back in 2010 and 2011 who were scoffing at Apples $300 a share price tag.....they missed an historic run up that is still going.....and going and going.
Why do I like NVDA, SHOP, CRM, ADSK and AMD?
MOAT.
I want growth stocks with a wide moat. I am willing to step in (on dips like I did here) and take positions in high growth with wide moat. Stocks with no moat (DOCU, Peleton, Zoom etc) get slaughtered at some point.
Anyway.....while I agree NVDA is expensive......it actually is not long term. Not at all. But you gotta pick your spots when taking a new position on high fliers. This recent slaughter on the Nasdaq was that kind of sale we look for.
I look for more sales/dips in 2022 because they will happen. Just got be ready when they do.
I just checked out their site, and I probably could have done all my Xmas shopping for my kids there. Definitely not the GameStop I remember. I don't think it's really all that hard to revamp or setup an e-commerce site though. What interests me is that they're debt free with boatloads of cash and 4000+ locations to play with too. Seems like the following is still insanely strong and not going anywhere so I'm kind of betting on them as well.That was the old Gamestop. The new company is closer to Amazon Jr. selling way more than games. They have electric scooters, computers, lighting, furniture, toys, etc. They are building an NFT marketplace and are looking to be leaders in blockchain, NFT, and Web 3.0. Just like Amazon once just sold books and Netflix just mailed discs, Gamestop is transitioning to be a juggernaut in the ecommerce world going forward.
Problem is they aren’t special. I also find it funny that they want to be solely e-commerce and talk about closing stores but that always seems to come up as a positive. I guess they can print out NFTs for people? The stores can’t handle selling anything but consoles and games TBH.I just checked out their site, and I probably could have done all my Xmas shopping for my kids there. Definitely not the GameStop I remember. I don't think it's really all that hard to revamp or setup an e-commerce site though. What interests me is that they're debt free with boatloads of cash and 4000+ locations to play with too.
I sold my shares in my day trading account for a small loss yesterday AF but did rebuy them this morning in my Roth to go long on. I'll let them hangout with RBLX for the next decade and see what happens.
I prefer to do it the old fashioned way by getting a divorce in California.If you don't want to go all in an aimless money-hemorrhaging company with no real detailed strategy (all actual strategy details have their source from reddit dreams and only extremely broad mentions like "exploring web 3.0" from the company itself) that doesn't even have a question and answer session during their quarterly conference calls (that just SCREAMS confidence) then I don't know what we're even doing here.
If I had just reported $186.6 million in stock-based compensation but had no real plan, I wouldn't want to answer questions, either.that doesn't even have a question and answer session during their quarterly conference calls (that just SCREAMS confidence)
Nothing wrong with that. Most people here know that it's a gamble detached from fundamentals. I made money on AMC the first time around but I also didn't pretend that movie theaters were making some kind of comeback and that when they start accepting DOGE, then rocket ships moons explosions, either.I'm not going to waste a lot of time trying to make sense of a meme stocks fundamentals or how they compare to others. My $1000 bet here is on the meme, the WSB/GME followers and their diamond hands.
I’m not a real believer in gme or amc but you continue to discount the fact that these meme stocks don’t need the fundamentals you are accustomed to in order to succeed. You don’t even seem to factor it in. The world has changed man. Not saying it’s right or wrong, it just is.Problem is they aren’t special. I also find it funny that they want to be solely e-commerce and talk about closing stores but that always seems to come up as a positive. I guess they can print out NFTs for people? The stores can’t handle selling anything but consoles and games TBH.
Anyway, I liken them to Best Buy not Amazon because they have nothing like AWS, Prime, etc. but then the fundamentals get in the way. GameStop has yet to be profitable (lost a lot more than the quarter in 2020 even with way more stores closed) and their sales year over year are trending down. They are in the $4-5B a year range in sales, unprofitable and command a $13B market cap. Best Buy has over $50B in sales, had increasing year over year sales, is profitable and sports a $25B market cap. If you ignore the losses and the revenue decreasing, GME should be a $2-3B market cap based on Best Buy’s numbers, seeing how similar they are.
I’m not going to assume they are going to be some big player in Web 3.0 either because right now they have no leadership or IP in that arena. Other than meme stock status what do they offer the established players?
As @FreeBaGeL posted above, they’ve have 3 earnings calls since their meteoric meme stock rise and there’s still been nothing interesting.
Trading (buying or shorting) in meme stocks has never been about the fundamentals. One reason I’d never recommend shorting them. It’s just funny when someone tries to bring fundamentals into the discussion to back a stock that’s not trading on fundamentals.I'm not going to waste a lot of time trying to make sense of a meme stocks fundamentals or how they compare to others. My $1000 bet here is on the meme, the WSB/GME followers and their diamond hands.
Lol. The world hasn’t changed. You really think there haven’t been investments in the past that weren’t based on fundamentals and went way past fair value?I’m not a real believer in gme or amc but you continue to discount the fact that these meme stocks don’t need the fundamentals you are accustomed to in order to succeed. You don’t even seem to factor it in. The world has changed man.
Well, ####, then it will never happen.CYDY is developing a treatment.
I'm starting a Betamax pyramid scheme. If anyone wants in just PM me.So I don't follow GameStop but these dudes sell used video games, figurines, and gift cards in an industry that is shifting to digital purchases directly onto consoles. I don't see it outside of the meme thing.
If I had just reported $186.6 million in stock-based compensation but had no real plan, I wouldn't want to answer questions, either.
Operator: Next question is from James Crumpkin of Blackrock. Go ahead, James.I would answer questions for hours if I received just a fraction of that amount.
A companies ability to sustain a competitive advantage.What do you define as a wide moat?
Oh me too man......except when they get stuck in the up position.I like drawbridges myself.
If I had just reported $186.6 million in stock-based compensation but had no real plan, I wouldn't want to answer questions, either.
Bueller?What are the hot long term holds as well as hot short term (as in 6 mo- 1 yr) right now?
Looking to diversify my retirement IRA a bit more as well as earn some extra cash in the next few months to a yr for my C8 Z06 fund
Time to get in on GOOG or AMZN? Yea, if you have baller money. Regular people might be able to buy a couple shares...A companies ability to sustain a competitive advantage.
It is made of of Intangible Assets, Cost Advantage, Network effect, switching costs, and efficient scale.
I like to use Morningstar for a lot of my equity research in terms of a companies ability to have moat. Some companies have narrow moat some have none and some have wide. typically your high growth companies have a wide moat which what makes heir growth rates so compelling which makes their risk premiums higher.
CRM is wide...we nibbled and will nibble more on the next round of pullback
NVDA is wide and we nibbled and will nibble more on the next pullback
SHOP is actually narrow and this stock is overvalued here.....I just nibbled...just a tiny nibble on this one on the recent sell off.....but I expect more sell off next year
ADSK is wide but slightly overvalued....we nibbled.
AMD actually has no moat...we nibbled and probably won’t nibble again until a real sell off. Even though they have no moat they are clearly one the leading semi conductor companies now.
V and MA have wide moat and I bought strongly last week after they hit new one year lows.
So that is moat in a nutshell. When it comes to growth companies....it is a really important factor.
AAPL for example is narrow.....I consider them more of a value or core company than growth company.
AMZN on the other hand has a wide moat and to me is still a great growth company and this past year was a good time if you never owned them to get in for the long term.
GOOGL also wide moat company.
TSLA is a narrow moat.....I consider it overvalued. By a lot. I bought it in the low 600’s and wrote a 900 December 21call on it.....it will probably be called away. That’s ok.....we made some nice money on it. But I expect it to drop down again at some point into the mid 600’s.....again. And rinse and repeat on it. This is one stock I missed the boat on. Very cultish.....and again IMO vastly overvalued. But I am not going to argue about it. There are plenty of other high growth stocks I rather own. I just think the moat is far too narrow to justify this risk premium on it. Again one mans opinion. I am not always right.
I would read this thread on a regular basis.Time to get in on GOOG or AMZN? Yea, if you have baller money. Regular people might be able to buy a couple shares...
You can buy fractional shares at many brokerages. Schwab and Fidelity are a couple and I’m sure you can Google others.Time to get in on GOOG or AMZN? Yea, if you have baller money. Regular people might be able to buy a couple shares...
Just call your doctor if it stays up longer than 4 hours.Oh me too man......except when they get stuck in the up position.
Bueller?
Whew, glad I sold that a month ago.I didn't realize Chewy still wasn't making money on 2.2 billion in revenue. Is this what the GME plan is?
Big fan, wish I jumped in earlier. They have a big moat IMHO. Amazon’s revenue is around $400B. Axon’s revenue this year will be just under $1B. Why would Amazon even bother investing enough to just get a slice? Also, I think the relationships, expertise and software around their core products is a big deal and creates that moat where a big company would have to spend too much to catch up and get partial market share.I'd like to know about Axon's moat. I think that's more of a little creek in front that you just jump over to cross (if your name is GOOG or AMZN or whatever). With all the pub and importance on cam footage in law enforcement and such, what's to stop one of these others from getting a piece of that pie? Yes, they have the relationships in place and are entrenched to a degree but to what, exactly? Just seems like a big tech could come in with something better if they felt like it. Almost similar to what Costco does with Kirkland products.
CEO came from law enforcement if I'm not mistaken, and definitely had a great idea and also pulled it off big. And then also found themselves at a great junction with the accelerated growth/need these last few years. As it mushrooms, I would think others will be poking around that moat.
Would love to hear thoughts on Axon.
And they’re starting to tie in the entire justice ecosystem, with the newest component being Axon Justice to streamline the whole discovery process. You can pretty much say “why doesn’t big tech yada yada” about basically anything so that’s always a risk, I guess. I read something a while back saying Axon is kind of turning into Salesforce in that basically anybody connected to the justice system will need an Axon Specialist on staff to handle their evidence management systems and everything around that. I imagine one jurisdiction will want to be connected to all the others and you’re not gonna do that with Oracle. Not a perfect analogy but pretty good.Big fan, wish I jumped in earlier. They have a big moat IMHO. Amazon’s revenue is around $400B. Axon’s revenue this year will be just under $1B. Why would Amazon even bother investing enough to just get a slice? Also, I think the relationships, expertise and software around their core products is a big deal and creates that moat where a big company would have to spend too much to catch up and get partial market share.
Nice to see that Charlie Munger posts in the FFA.Lol. The world hasn’t changed. You really think there haven’t been investments in the past that weren’t based on fundamentals and went way past fair value?
When have I ever said that meme stocks aren’t based on fundamentals? Look a few posts up and you’ll see the biggest backer trying to mix fundamentals into the reason why GME is a great investment. If you do that I’ll add my two cents into the equation.
I do appreciate your insights but you don’t have to worry about me not understanding the concept of meme stocks or crypto and how they don’t fit in fundamentals. I get it. I don’t think it’s some sort of new age thought process. I think it’s driven by the same core greed that everyone has to make a lot of money. That’s why there have been crypto scams and I’m sure people on Reddit or former stock brokers like Roaring kitty who've leveraged cons/cult like behavior to scam a lot of money and create a lot of bag holders. That’s been going on for many centuries.
Also, be honest. In 5 years, do you really think GME and AMC will still be trading based on pure meme status? I don’t. Now, sure although the air seems to be letting out of the tires. Devotees are still there but many jumpers have moved on to crypto. There’s still believers in CYDY and SPACs but most of the money has moved on from just buying everything.
Thanks! I’d be interested to hear why you believe NVDA had a wide most but AMD doesn’t. I’ve assumed they are quite similar but I’ve never looked into them a lot.Todem said:A companies ability to sustain a competitive advantage.
It is made of of Intangible Assets, Cost Advantage, Network effect, switching costs, and efficient scale.
I like to use Morningstar for a lot of my equity research in terms of a companies ability to have moat. Some companies have narrow moat some have none and some have wide. typically your high growth companies have a wide moat which what makes heir growth rates so compelling which makes their risk premiums higher.
CRM is wide...we nibbled and will nibble more on the next round of pullback
NVDA is wide and we nibbled and will nibble more on the next pullback
SHOP is actually narrow and this stock is overvalued here.....I just nibbled...just a tiny nibble on this one on the recent sell off.....but I expect more sell off next year
ADSK is wide but slightly overvalued....we nibbled.
AMD actually has no moat...we nibbled and probably won’t nibble again until a real sell off. Even though they have no moat they are clearly one the leading semi conductor companies now.
V and MA have wide moat and I bought strongly last week after they hit new one year lows.
So that is moat in a nutshell. When it comes to growth companies....it is a really important factor.
AAPL for example is narrow.....I consider them more of a value or core company than growth company.
AMZN on the other hand has a wide moat and to me is still a great growth company and this past year was a good time if you never owned them to get in for the long term.
GOOGL also wide moat company.
TSLA is a narrow moat.....I consider it overvalued. By a lot. I bought it in the low 600’s and wrote a 900 December 21call on it.....it will probably be called away. That’s ok.....we made some nice money on it. But I expect it to drop down again at some point into the mid 600’s.....again. And rinse and repeat on it. This is one stock I missed the boat on. Very cultish.....and again IMO vastly overvalued. But I am not going to argue about it. There are plenty of other high growth stocks I rather own. I just think the moat is far too narrow to justify this risk premium on it. Again one mans opinion. I am not always right.