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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Up 6% right now. Had some, sold half before it dumped, planning on holding it for a while.
Caveman33
Footballguy
I'm uncertain on what to expect from the market after what I believe to be three likely senarios:I think everyone knows they’re going to raise rates by .50 again so that’s likely already baked in. Any short term market reaction will be based on whatever hints they give for the future. Just my opinion (an opinion which turns out to be)
1. Fed raises rates .50 on June 15 and says that inflation is declining and only 1 more month of .50 may be needed.
2. Fed raises rates .50 on June 15 and says that inflation is declining and July may only need a raise of .25.
3. Fed raises rated .50 on June15 with inflation increasing between 0.6 and 1.2% month over month and says they may need to raise .75 in the coming months.
How do you think the market would behave in these 3 scenarios?
beef
Footballguy
Big Oil doing what Big Oil does best. NRGU was up almost 750% from it's 52 week lows yesterday.
David Dodds
Administrator
Circle, Square, Triangle, CROSS for those that know.
Congrats to all that diamond-handed their shares.
Congrats to all that diamond-handed their shares.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Please explain. Still have some shares, but there's too much info on SuperStonk that I don't know what to follow anymore.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
The cross comment was a Gamestop company tweet. I believe it refers to a golden cross in the chart.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp#:~:text=A golden cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the,indicating a bearish price movement.
Steeler
Footballguy
But the GME chart didn't experience the golden cross.... unless I'm doing something wrong the 200MA at ~152 and the 50MA at ~130.
drunken slob
Footballguy
I hold a couple of those. Also have stuff like HAL, BTU, CEIX, BPT, SJT. With exception to the BPT and SJT most all of this particular portfolio was bought back in April and May of 2020. I recently took some profits from HAL and MRO and am free rolling those positions now.
Don't know your situation, but if you feel like making some loot, sell some. Profit is good
As for the future, here's my outlook:
First, the Russia/Ukraine conflict could end peacefully right now and it won't make a difference with regard getting more supply on the world market. The sanctions will take time to unwind and who knows what the overall status of the Russian oil industry is.
Second, we have a mid-term election coming. I don't pay attention to the daily happenings in politics. But the polls right now tend toward republican control of the house. No idea what's going on with the other chamber (Don't care). This is just speculation on my part, got to make that clear.
The run up to the election will have a bunch of people promising to lower your gas, heating, electric and grocery prices. They win. After the election, more money flows into the tickers we've listed because a lot people only see the short term. Then reality sets in.
The next session of Congress doesn't start until next January. So the promiser's have to wait a couple months to get seated and voting on energy legislation. Then, even if they get something passed, it has to go to the upper chamber, go into conference, then get passed, and then get signed into law. (Lot of road blocks in that last sentence) Then the companies have to figure out if it's worth the money to do. So.....no action till this time next year at the soonest. Just humble speculation and my
TL/DR
Everything sucks and will continue to suck. The end of a war followed by a mid-term election will mean nothing. Supply will not change for a long time. I plan to keep what I have and take advantage of scarcity and fear.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I've been taking profits on my oil stocks a little bit every week or two. I'm down to about 30% of my original holdings. Holding onto those feels a lot like holding all that tech growth stuff I held through covid without taking nearly enough profits.
@drunken slob makes some good points, but the problem is the stock market is forward looking, so it's very possible that oil stock prices could drop steeply with the end of the war or other supply boosts even if that won't actually affect those company's returns for a few quarters.
@drunken slob makes some good points, but the problem is the stock market is forward looking, so it's very possible that oil stock prices could drop steeply with the end of the war or other supply boosts even if that won't actually affect those company's returns for a few quarters.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
That's not to mention some of these oil companies have P/E ratios in the high teens when they are literally anti-growth companies. Their profits are so high because they've decided to forego any investment into their future growth due to worries about future demand for oil.
drunken slob
Footballguy
Oil isn't going to drop steeply any time soon, IMO
Shanghai, China is starting to open. With China being the point of the Asian supply chain that goes to Vietnam and other westward countries, more demand will occur to ship their products abroad. More diesel will be needed. Therefore, more oil will be in demand and the refineries along with the down stream shippers will be under pressure.
@FreeBaGeL, thanks for the reply
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I agree with this. Oil prices and consequently gas prices are most likely going to stay high for a while. As you mentioned—China is about to open up soon. You also have summer peak travel season for the USA. The oil that Europe got from Russia is not going to be easily and cheaply replaceable. Lastly—(and this is probably more for the gasoline/diesel side of things—more than unrefined oil)—but we are literally one hurricane away in the gulf from hitting $9-10/gallon gas.
drunken slob
Footballguy
The bolded would have been considered outlandish just a year ago.
Yet, here we are
@jvdesigns2002, thanks for the reply
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McBokonon
Footballguy
David Dodds
Administrator
The riddle I posted above decodes to MOASS and is signed by an abbreviation of Ryan Cohen's name. But putting the tinfoil hat aside, GameStop is a Gamma Squeeze ready to happen (If the price hits $150/share, the stock will not likely be able to be contained). And I don't think this is by accident. Ryan Cohen has been targeting June 17th for a bit of time now.
Next up is the annual meeting which happens in less than an hour (11am ET). The board has asked the shareholders to vote for authority to increase shares to 1 Billion. It looks to pass, but many brokers did not allow their shares to be voted (loaned out shares and this crushes shorts). This is a two-fold strategy if the authorization passes.
1. GameStop will be doing a share dividend (each share becomes more shares)
2. The company will retain shares to fend off any hostile actors trying to wrestle control.
A lot more is planned (NFT marketplace launch, GameStop Wallet launching in Apple marketplace, Wallet adding crypto trading, etc).
Additionally, Ryan Cohen has been briefed about the Dodds/BassNBrew bet and he has assured me that he won't let the foot off the gas pedal.
I will leave it here for now. The next two weeks are about to get crazy. Good luck everyone with their investments.
Next up is the annual meeting which happens in less than an hour (11am ET). The board has asked the shareholders to vote for authority to increase shares to 1 Billion. It looks to pass, but many brokers did not allow their shares to be voted (loaned out shares and this crushes shorts). This is a two-fold strategy if the authorization passes.
1. GameStop will be doing a share dividend (each share becomes more shares)
2. The company will retain shares to fend off any hostile actors trying to wrestle control.
A lot more is planned (NFT marketplace launch, GameStop Wallet launching in Apple marketplace, Wallet adding crypto trading, etc).
Additionally, Ryan Cohen has been briefed about the Dodds/BassNBrew bet and he has assured me that he won't let the foot off the gas pedal.
I will leave it here for now. The next two weeks are about to get crazy. Good luck everyone with their investments.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Sold these for $2.60 each for a $340 gain
ETA
I would have held these longer but have AAPL $165 calls same expiration date.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
I’m a bit confused as to when Ryan Cohen has time to worry about short squeezes with how much time they spend on their earnings reports and communicating out their business plans. It does help to have an source.
beef
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
David Dodds
Administrator
Cool story bro. I will help you out. I hype every date, because I am invested in a winner. Can't Stop. Won't Stop.
Down days are discounts.
Up days are expected.
No conspiracy. Just a great stock turnaround story that I am thrilled to be part of.
Well, seems like all my hammered stocks have been doing great earnings wise. CRWD isn’t up AHs but the did well. I think they have had a nice rally so maybe not going much higher. OKTA had great results, almost identical to CRWD but a much cheaper stock, so it’s up 15% or so AH. MDB blew out and was up big today and CRM before that as well as ZS and others. A few guidance issues but most had great quarters again and solid guidance.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I'm so old that I remember when adding jobs and nearly 100% employment, was a good thing. Those darn greedy workers.
David Dodds said:
Generally dilution doesn't increase the stock price. But given this is GameStop, I'm trying my new investing approach https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y_6fZGSOQI and adding some more shares. Rather than investing in companies with solid earnings and good business plans, I'm doing the opposite.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
AMZN split at the end of day? More boat anchors for everyone's weekend!!
:insertOprahGif:
:insertOprahGif:
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Capella
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I need to figure this out. I do have a lot of AMZN. What’s your suggested process assuming a price around $120 or whatever it will be on Monday?Can finally sell covered calls!!
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I'm surely a novice compared to others here but my general strategy is to find a price and date that is worth my while to make the trade but won't actually trigger. Does that make sense?
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-nasdaq-valuation-plunge-dot-com-bubble-fundstrat-2022-6?utm_campaign=sf-bi-money&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3McN17k6P5pemGMd9obLUeN7xTJ-ZupgirIAYzRFe0haiZocCves7jpLk
From Article:
But after the year-to-date decline, Lee now sees an attractive risk/reward profile in the Nasdaq 100 and its associated mega-cap tech stocks, according to the note.
"Many investors say they are waiting for stocks to crash to absolute rock bottom levels before considering equities. The Nasdaq 100 is already there," he said.
In fact, the Nasdaq's price-to-earnings ratio today is lower now than it was at the depths of its dot-com unwind, when the Nasdaq 100 declined by nearly 80% from its 2000 peak, he added.
"Nasdaq 100 is cheaper today than at the absolute 70-year low of 2003. Yup, markets crashed worse than dot-com," Lee said.
This dynamic means tech stocks are likely to stage a considerable bounce before the rest of the market does, according to the note, and the Nasdaq's recent relative outperformance relative to the S&P 500 over the past week corroborates that view.
-----
Thoughts?
From Article:
But after the year-to-date decline, Lee now sees an attractive risk/reward profile in the Nasdaq 100 and its associated mega-cap tech stocks, according to the note.
"Many investors say they are waiting for stocks to crash to absolute rock bottom levels before considering equities. The Nasdaq 100 is already there," he said.
In fact, the Nasdaq's price-to-earnings ratio today is lower now than it was at the depths of its dot-com unwind, when the Nasdaq 100 declined by nearly 80% from its 2000 peak, he added.
"Nasdaq 100 is cheaper today than at the absolute 70-year low of 2003. Yup, markets crashed worse than dot-com," Lee said.
This dynamic means tech stocks are likely to stage a considerable bounce before the rest of the market does, according to the note, and the Nasdaq's recent relative outperformance relative to the S&P 500 over the past week corroborates that view.
-----
Thoughts?
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I agree. There are some quality growing tech companies that have gotten really cheap. There are ones that might not make it back but they all got hit hard even the good ones that in 5-10 years you’ll wish you bought more.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Took this advice today and made his change. Thanks to you and everyone else who responded.
