Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

[fruity pebbles]

10 year Treasury all the way up to 4.21% today. Yikes. That is no bueno for stocks. Or for mortgage rates for that matter. Even if earnings season is great for stocks the remainder of the year stocks have limited upside unless rates stop this rapid climb. 3700 on the S&P with PE just under 16 looks a lot worse today with 10 year at 4.21% than it did at 3700 in June with 10 year at 3.30%.

Finally coming around I see.

You got it. Stock market is going nowhere with the bond market falling apart.

 

[humpback]

Not exactly a bellwether but WHR missed by a country mile.

 

[stbugs]

Yay, SNAP once again taking others down with it.

I hate SNAP. I’ve owned (sold a bunch) of TTD and while it’s had great earnings even last quarter, whenever SNAP reports it goes down. SNAP doesn’t appear to be an indicator of anything, they just are a company who has bad earnings and has had bad earnings the past two quarters, now three.

I believe SNAP is the one most impacted by Apples iOS changes but they seem to bring down everyone. It’s just annoying because they’ve had lots of issues over their illustrious life. Bad upgrades, Celeb disses, not having a way to get around Apple’s changes.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I switched jobs recently so rolled over my 401K (both traditional and Roth) and in the process of rolling over my HSA (not happy that HSA money has been out of the market this past week, 7-10 days for a transfer!?!). In the traditional it's all ETFs and MFs so that's pretty straight forward, but in the Roth I own all individual stocks so will probably sell the MFs that transferred in. Thinking I'll grow some of my favorite holdings, and then revisit the Todem list to add some new positions I haven't added yet. I tend to be a DCA guy, but I know the studies all say just get the money in the market as soon as possible and you'll typically come out ahead.

Any current favorites out there? Time frame is exactly 9 1/2 years before I can touch any of it (without penalty), so while I like to trade a bit in the Roth I'm more focused on long-term growth.

For me it would depend on the amount of money. Less than 100k and Id Be more aggressive. If we’re talking hundreds of thousands and up, I’m naturally more conservative than most in this thread. I’m about the same age as you. I can only comment on what I’d do. If its a significant % of my net worth, I’d have a hard time leaving the safety of gov bonds on the table right now given the turmoil of the stock market. I’d probably make it simple and put 60% in the SP500 and 40% in two year treasuries at nearly 5% interest. Something like that. I’d get about 2/3 of the SPs upside and only 50% of the downside. I’m sure most will disagree.

 

[Desert_Power]

Yay, SNAP once again taking others down with it.

I hate SNAP. I’ve owned (sold a bunch) of TTD and while it’s had great earnings even last quarter, whenever SNAP reports it goes down. SNAP doesn’t appear to be an indicator of anything, they just are a company who has bad earnings and has had bad earnings the past two quarters, now three.

I believe SNAP is the one most impacted by Apples iOS changes but they seem to bring down everyone. It’s just annoying because they’ve had lots of issues over their illustrious life. Bad upgrades, Celeb disses, not having a way to get around Apple’s changes.

Just seems to be a bad company with a losing product.

 

[stbugs]

Yay, SNAP once again taking others down with it.

I hate SNAP. I’ve owned (sold a bunch) of TTD and while it’s had great earnings even last quarter, whenever SNAP reports it goes down. SNAP doesn’t appear to be an indicator of anything, they just are a company who has bad earnings and has had bad earnings the past two quarters, now three.

I believe SNAP is the one most impacted by Apples iOS changes but they seem to bring down everyone. It’s just annoying because they’ve had lots of issues over their illustrious life. Bad upgrades, Celeb disses, not having a way to get around Apple’s changes.

Just seems to be a bad company with a losing product.

Exactly, which is why it’s frustrating seeing it bring down other companies as if it’s some sort of bellwether indicator versus just a bad company.

 

[cubd8]

10 year Treasury all the way up to 4.21% today. Yikes. That is no bueno for stocks. Or for mortgage rates for that matter. Even if earnings season is great for stocks the remainder of the year stocks have limited upside unless rates stop this rapid climb. 3700 on the S&P with PE just under 16 looks a lot worse today with 10 year at 4.21% than it did at 3700 in June with 10 year at 3.30%.

Finally coming around I see.

Can this be explained further? That is all of the focus on CNBC today, but can the 2 year and 10 year yield and the increase to it be dumbed down?

 

[Schmeabs]

10 year Treasury all the way up to 4.21% today. Yikes. That is no bueno for stocks. Or for mortgage rates for that matter. Even if earnings season is great for stocks the remainder of the year stocks have limited upside unless rates stop this rapid climb. 3700 on the S&P with PE just under 16 looks a lot worse today with 10 year at 4.21% than it did at 3700 in June with 10 year at 3.30%.

Finally coming around I see.

Can this be explained further? That is all of the focus on CNBC today, but can the 2 year and 10 year yield and the increase to it be dumbed down?

Basically when interest rates were so low investors were more incentivized to buy stocks as even the dividend yield on the S&P 500 was greater than the 10 year Treasury. Now investors can get 4.2% on a risk free bond or a little higher on a 2 year Treasury or CD. More competion for stocks with higher rates. It also puts more stress on the consumer which hurts spending and therefore earnings.

 

[McBokonon]

Wow SNAP tanked every social media company, even FB.

Adtech getting hit with it, too. TTD and PUBM for example

Happy 1 year anniversary of TTD getting hit because SNAP is terrible at their jobs!

 

[drunken slob]

Not political. This administration needs to figure out how to get more real refining capacity online in the northeast.
The company I work for buys a lot of our finished goods from companies in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. We buys pallets, half loads in a 28' trailer at best, from these vendors. The diesel problem in that region is not good.
Prices are prices. We'll pay what they want. The company has been doing business with these folks for decades, no need to change.
The lack of diesel on the spot market is affecting scheduling because haulers have to continually revise quotes due to scarcity. That's what makes me unhappy.
Stuff I could get in two months now takes six. Yes, other factors contribute. Now though, we keep getting shipping dates pushed back because the regionals are getting squeezed on hitting inter-connects with the nationals. This is starting to add weeks flowing into next month to our expected reception dates.

I don't have any stock plays to hype or crap on regarding this situation. Just concerned.

Came in here to talk about oil stocks and how the administration found a way to give them all a goose in the fanny. I keep getting proven wrong about why the WTI/Brent prices stay up. It's not my fault people won't shut up.

Take profit.

reminds me of the ships just sitting off the coast in cali

Yeah, now it's barges on the Mississippi river waiting for dredges to show up so they can continue their voyage.

 

[stinkzmagee]

This averaging down thing ain’t been working so well. I feel like I’m just digging a hole deeper and deeper. And that’s for what I thought were good companies. Don’t even get me started on growth.

 

[fruity pebbles]

This averaging down thing ain’t been working so well. I feel like I’m just digging a hole deeper and deeper. And that’s for what I thought were good companies. Don’t even get me started on growth.

Could be worse I suppose. The high flyer ARKK type names are down 80-90%. I know a few guys down 80% +. Hard to come back from that.

 

[Capella]

This averaging down thing ain’t been working so well. I feel like I’m just digging a hole deeper and deeper. And that’s for what I thought were good companies. Don’t even get me started on growth.

Could be worse I suppose. The high flyer ARKK type names are down 80-90%. I know a few guys down 80% +. Hard to come back from that.

There are people who bought Shopify at 1600. I hate that I got it at 575.

 

[Desert_Power]

This averaging down thing ain’t been working so well. I feel like I’m just digging a hole deeper and deeper. And that’s for what I thought were good companies. Don’t even get me started on growth.

On average, it will work out. Unless you are just averaging into large positions in individual names increasing your risk.

Bonds are a very attractive investment right now though. If you're tired of losing money.

 

[kevzilla]

A few weeks ago, Fidelity offered my dad a 2-yr CD at the same rate as Treasuries, and he took it. You think they'll offer the same deal when it gets to 5%?

 

[Schmeabs]

A few weeks ago, Fidelity offered my dad a 2-yr CD at the same rate as Treasuries, and he took it. You think they'll offer the same deal when it gets to 5%?

Yes. I can buy a 2 year CD at 4.65% today which is the same rate as 2 year Treasury.

 

[McBokonon]

Anyone in FUBO? This one has been on my radar for a while but haven't pulled trigger, down 18% today after earnings.

Yep, they are losing money but an important thing is their subscribers and that is going up.

I have zero interest in it whatsoever and can't see how they'll truly differentiate in the main two crowded markets they are attempting to compete in, but Beth Kindig (I mentioned her a few pages back as a super smart tech person worth following) is really bullish on FUBO. I'm going to let her be right while I stay on the sidelines. The fact she likes it so much is the only reason I even pay attention to them.

I completely missed this news

FUBO ceases sports betting operation. That was their whole big plan, supposedly.

 

[lakerstan]

Wow Netflix.

I thought everyone already had netflix lol. guess not

So glad I didn’t bail on it.

 

[stinkzmagee]

This averaging down thing ain’t been working so well. I feel like I’m just digging a hole deeper and deeper. And that’s for what I thought were good companies. Don’t even get me started on growth.

Could be worse I suppose. The high flyer ARKK type names are down 80-90%. I know a few guys down 80% +. Hard to come back from that.

Oh I’ve got plenty of that too.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This averaging down thing ain’t been working so well. I feel like I’m just digging a hole deeper and deeper. And that’s for what I thought were good companies. Don’t even get me started on growth.

Could be worse I suppose. The high flyer ARKK type names are down 80-90%. I know a few guys down 80% +. Hard to come back from that.

There are people who bought Shopify at 1600. I hate that I got it at 575.

<---- Shopify average cost of $1220 here. And that's after buying down a bit on the way down.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Was looking at my portfolio today and found this little fun nugget.

After the great rebalance of 2022, my current best performing individual stock that I still hold is none other than....BLMN, which I got almost at the covid lows.

Long live the onion.

 

[Capella]

This averaging down thing ain’t been working so well. I feel like I’m just digging a hole deeper and deeper. And that’s for what I thought were good companies. Don’t even get me started on growth.

Could be worse I suppose. The high flyer ARKK type names are down 80-90%. I know a few guys down 80% +. Hard to come back from that.

There are people who bought Shopify at 1600. I hate that I got it at 575.

<---- Shopify average cost of $1220 here. And that's after buying down a bit on the way down.

It’ll come back! (I hope!)

 

[stbugs]

This averaging down thing ain’t been working so well. I feel like I’m just digging a hole deeper and deeper. And that’s for what I thought were good companies. Don’t even get me started on growth.

Could be worse I suppose. The high flyer ARKK type names are down 80-90%. I know a few guys down 80% +. Hard to come back from that.

There are people who bought Shopify at 1600. I hate that I got it at 575.

<---- Shopify average cost of $1220 here. And that's after buying down a bit on the way down.

It’ll come back! (I hope!)

It has come back. It’s right about where I bought it in March of 2020. So mad I didn’t sell it at the end of last year. I only had 6 or 7 shares, I think (pre-split) so not much but it was a nice return a way back when.

 

[McBokonon]

I think name recognition might make it a decent trading vehicle for awhile but I was just looking at $WEBR’s financials. Yuk.

I do have a Weber Performer and I use it all the time. Love it. Bought it 8 years ago and they haven’t received any new money from me since. Great product but I need some recurring revenue. Hard pass.

Getting taken out. $WEBR

Awesome product, terrible investment.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think name recognition might make it a decent trading vehicle for awhile but I was just looking at $WEBR’s financials. Yuk.

I do have a Weber Performer and I use it all the time. Love it. Bought it 8 years ago and they haven’t received any new money from me since. Great product but I need some recurring revenue. Hard pass.

Getting taken out. $WEBR

Awesome product, terrible investment.

I was just thinking about this stock the other day, remembering our conversation from last year about how their products are almost TOO good such that there are no repeat buyers because they're happy with their old Weber grills and don't need a new one.

What made me think of it is I fired up my literally TWENTY year old Weber grill the other day, and the electric igniter STILL WORKS. Modern grills people expect those things to last a few months and then be lighting it with a lighter from then on. But this freaking thing, twenty years later, it still cooks like a champ and even lights with the button. Crazy.

Kind of a sad commentary on things that building a quality product is bad for your stock price, and you're better off building cheap junk that people need to replace in a few years not because of some cool new advancement to your product, but just because the old one stopped working well. I'm looking at you, AAPL.

 

[McBokonon]

I think name recognition might make it a decent trading vehicle for awhile but I was just looking at $WEBR’s financials. Yuk.

I do have a Weber Performer and I use it all the time. Love it. Bought it 8 years ago and they haven’t received any new money from me since. Great product but I need some recurring revenue. Hard pass.

Getting taken out. $WEBR

Awesome product, terrible investment.

I was just thinking about this stock the other day, remembering our conversation from last year about how their products are almost TOO good such that there are no repeat buyers because they're happy with their old Weber grills and don't need a new one.

What made me think of it is I fired up my literally TWENTY year old Weber grill the other day, and the electric igniter STILL WORKS. Modern grills people expect those things to last a few months and then be lighting it with a lighter from then on. But this freaking thing, twenty years later, it still cooks like a champ and even lights with the button. Crazy.

Kind of a sad commentary on things that building a quality product is bad for your stock price, and you're better off building cheap junk that people need to replace in a few years not because of some cool new advancement to your product, but just because the old one stopped working well. I'm looking at you, AAPL.

I use my Performer multiple times a week. It's incredible. I'm 10 years away, at least, from buying a new one. It is kind of sad to think that their quality is just too good - but it's a successful company. Not necessarily investible but solid. Going public was a cash grab and I don't blame them.

 

[humpback]

I think name recognition might make it a decent trading vehicle for awhile but I was just looking at $WEBR’s financials. Yuk.

I do have a Weber Performer and I use it all the time. Love it. Bought it 8 years ago and they haven’t received any new money from me since. Great product but I need some recurring revenue. Hard pass.

Getting taken out. $WEBR

Awesome product, terrible investment.

I was just thinking about this stock the other day, remembering our conversation from last year about how their products are almost TOO good such that there are no repeat buyers because they're happy with their old Weber grills and don't need a new one.

What made me think of it is I fired up my literally TWENTY year old Weber grill the other day, and the electric igniter STILL WORKS. Modern grills people expect those things to last a few months and then be lighting it with a lighter from then on. But this freaking thing, twenty years later, it still cooks like a champ and even lights with the button. Crazy.

Kind of a sad commentary on things that building a quality product is bad for your stock price, and you're better off building cheap junk that people need to replace in a few years not because of some cool new advancement to your product, but just because the old one stopped working well. I'm looking at you, AAPL.

I use my Performer multiple times a week. It's incredible. I'm 10 years away, at least, from buying a new one. It is kind of sad to think that their quality is just too good - but it's a successful company. Not necessarily investible but solid. Going public was a cash grab and I don't blame them.

I don't have first hand knowledge on this as our ~12 year old Weber is still going strong, but I have heard from some friends who have bought in the last few years that the build quality isn't as good as it used to be. Was probably the highlight of their pitch during the IPO roadshow lol.

 

[Sand]

I think name recognition might make it a decent trading vehicle for awhile but I was just looking at $WEBR’s financials. Yuk.

I do have a Weber Performer and I use it all the time. Love it. Bought it 8 years ago and they haven’t received any new money from me since. Great product but I need some recurring revenue. Hard pass.

Getting taken out. $WEBR

Awesome product, terrible investment.

Just bought a grill (on sale!). Don't own the stock. So... nailed it?

-----

On another note, today the S&P is up ~1.3%. IEF (10 year treasury) is up 1.5%. This market is .

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

The big tech earnings reports would normally dictate upcoming market moves, but we're in the upside-down, so I don't know what to expect.

 

[Capella]

The big tech earnings reports would normally dictate upcoming market moves, but we're in the upside-down, so I don't know what to expect.

Tech is up today and yesterday so I am expecting disastrous earnings.

 

[Capella]

The big tech earnings reports would normally dictate upcoming market moves, but we're in the upside-down, so I don't know what to expect.

Tech is up today and yesterday so I am expecting disastrous earnings.

Alphabet, right on cue baby

 

[Sand]

The big tech earnings reports would normally dictate upcoming market moves, but we're in the upside-down, so I don't know what to expect.

Tech is up today and yesterday so I am expecting disastrous earnings.

Alphabet, right on cue baby

I was going to comment on how we just need 10 weeks like last week to get back to even and how this week was a good start, but something tells me you just took care of that for us.

 

[stbugs]

The big tech earnings reports would normally dictate upcoming market moves, but we're in the upside-down, so I don't know what to expect.

Tech is up today and yesterday so I am expecting disastrous earnings.

Alphabet, right on cue baby

Microsoft beat but they went down because azure growth slowed. What I don’t get is that all their sun revenues including intelligent cloud met or beat expectations. If you beat the Azure revenue expectations and the growth is a simple calculation based on past numbers and a number beating expectations, how does the growth disappoint? I know it might be whispering but in this macro environment how can people be expecting blow outs?

We’ll see how Amazon and Apple do.

 

[stbugs]

The big tech earnings reports would normally dictate upcoming market moves, but we're in the upside-down, so I don't know what to expect.

Tech is up today and yesterday so I am expecting disastrous earnings.

Alphabet, right on cue baby

I was going to comment on how we just need 10 weeks like last week to get back to even and how this week was a good start, but something tells me you just took care of that for us.

We’ll see how it gets digested. I have a feeling we’ll be stuck in a rut for a bit. Microsoft appears to actually have done well considering the price drops and macro conditions. People aren’t expecting great anymore with us in a recession (I still don’t know if that’s official yet).

 

[kevzilla]

Inject the Visa quarter directly into my veins

 

[Sand]

We’ll see how it gets digested.

MSFT -6%
GOOG -7%

Digested like 50 day old fish.

 

[Todem]

The big tech earnings reports would normally dictate upcoming market moves, but we're in the upside-down, so I don't know what to expect.

Tech is up today and yesterday so I am expecting disastrous earnings.

Alphabet, right on cue baby

I was going to comment on how we just need 10 weeks like last week to get back to even and how this week was a good start, but something tells me you just took care of that for us.

We’ll see how it gets digested. I have a feeling we’ll be stuck in a rut for a bit. Microsoft appears to actually have done well considering the price drops and macro conditions. People aren’t expecting great anymore with us in a recession (I still don’t know if that’s official yet).

When they look back on 2022 in a couple of years IMO.....the Recession started in June. Will be curious if I was right.

 

[Todem]

We’ll see how it gets digested.

MSFT -6%
GOOG -7%

Digested like 50 day old fish.

Buy and go long with supreme confidence if you don’t already own these names.

I am confident we see a 10-12% upside rally into year end on the S&P/Dow/Nasdaq. A lot of coiled springs about to uncoil. Sentiment could not have been lower 6 weeks ago.....so take advantage of the year end rally when it happens to reassess your risk tolerance, long term goals, shed some losers to tax harvest some winners, rebalance your portfolios etc.

2023 will be a muted sideways kinda year. Maybe even a jolt to the downside 1st quarter. Yield will be very important for 2023. By the end of 2023 I am expecting the next cyclical bull market to begin.

 

[stbugs]

We’ll see how it gets digested.

MSFT -6%
GOOG -7%

Digested like 50 day old fish.

Yeah, doesn’t look good but after hours is always the toughest to know if it’s really going to happen. Based on actual results, seems like Microsoft (and others) is getting hit more than Google should be as Google just straight missed.

 

[KGB]

Carnival Cruise Line Drops All Protocols for Most Sailings

Carnival Cruise Line drops requirements for almost all sailings, making it even easier for passengers to take a vacation.

www.cruisehive.com

 

[Capella]

Bought more Google today at these prices. Buy till I die, I guess.

 

[Capella]

Facebook getting slaughtered. Amazon tomorrow should be a real hoot.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Facebook getting slaughtered. Amazon tomorrow should be a real hoot.

Facebook is a dying company imo

 

[stinkzmagee]

Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..

 

[Capella]

Facebook getting slaughtered. Amazon tomorrow should be a real hoot.

Facebook is a dying company imo

Facebook itself I may agree, Meta overall I do not.

 

[Desert_Power]

The pivot to the Metaverse is going to be studied for a long time.

 

[Sand]

The pivot to the Metaverse is going to be studied for a long time.

If one of these does catch on, IMO it won't be Meta that owns it.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

So Meta's P/E ratio is going to be around 8 when things open up tomorrow?

I feel like the narrative has gotten screwed up on a lot of these big tech growth stocks due to the covid outliers. It's being priced in P/E like it's a 50 year old dividend company. Rebalanced from a growth company because revenue isn't increasing right now.

But how much of that is just that revenue blew up so artificially during covid (when everyone was stuck inside browsing Facebook) and things have to level out a bit?

Their last pre-covid Q3 earnings they were doing $17B revenue. Now at $27B the stock will almost be 50% lower than it was when they were doing $17B revenue. Because they're done "growing" or because things have to normalize a bit after super fast artifical growth?

It's such a weird dynamic in the market right now. If a stock grew 5% every quarter for 5 years, then one quarter they grew 10000000% and the next quarter retracted 5% from that 10000000% growth, should the stock price be lower because it was their first quarter with negative growth, or higher because their revenue is up 99999995% over the last two quarters? It seems like right now, the market is saying the former.

 

[stbugs]

Facebook getting slaughtered. Amazon tomorrow should be a real hoot.

Facebook is a dying company imo

The metaverse push is not going to help. Of all the apps dependent on Apple, Snap and Facebook are the highest and they’ve been crushed after all the changes.

 

[Todem]

So Meta's P/E ratio is going to be around 8 when things open up tomorrow?

I feel like the narrative has gotten screwed up on a lot of these big tech growth stocks due to the covid outliers. It's being priced in P/E like it's a 50 year old dividend company. Rebalanced from a growth company because revenue isn't increasing right now.

But how much of that is just that revenue blew up so artificially during covid (when everyone was stuck inside browsing Facebook) and things have to level out a bit?

Their last pre-covid Q3 earnings they were doing $17B revenue. Now at $27B the stock will amost be 50% lower than it was when they were doing $17B revenue. Because they're done "growing" or because things have to normalize a bit after super fast artifical growth?

It's such a weird dynamic in the market right now. If a stock grew 5% every quarter for 5 years, then one quarter they grew 10000000% and the next quarter retracted 5% from that 10000000% growth, should the stock price be lower because it was their first quarter with negative growth, or higher because their revenue is up 99999995% over the last two quarters? It seems like right now, the market is saying the former.

There is a massive disconnect with the reality of this company (massive cashflow, huge user base and oh yeah they make 31B a quarter in revenue) and sentiment. It will balance out again and over time those who think they are dead will be proven quite wrong.

Massively oversold more than any of the mega tech names.