That's a fair point, wasn't thinking about it like that.Respectfully disagree there. Inflation is multiplicative - so that 8% will affect all future spending until I (or you) die. Every dollar you have is worth 8% less thanks to the inflationary results of economic decisions made. This is what makes inflation so insidious.Not exactly, down 8% of what you spend. And that % can vary quite a bit.No doubt. The biggest issue is this year is that everyone starts with a -8% or so (if you believe US govt. inflation numbers). That's the baseline, which is brutal. Add on the 250 year bear market in bonds and there was no hiding this year.Think many would love being down only 25%. Most were pretty tech heavy entering 2022.
And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.
On top of that the Fed is terrified of ever getting to a deflationary condition, so I expect that multiplier to never go below 1 during my lifetime.
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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Yeah thinking about this a bit more have to factor in income. I was fortunate where my raise kept up with inflation but not sure what the national average was guess could look that up.But but but......I got a 3% raise this yearRespectfully disagree there. Inflation is multiplicative - so that 8% will affect all future spending until I (or you) die. Every dollar you have is worth 8% less thanks to the inflationary results of economic decisions made. This is what makes inflation so insidious.Not exactly, down 8% of what you spend. And that % can vary quite a bit.No doubt. The biggest issue is this year is that everyone starts with a -8% or so (if you believe US govt. inflation numbers). That's the baseline, which is brutal. Add on the 250 year bear market in bonds and there was no hiding this year.Think many would love being down only 25%. Most were pretty tech heavy entering 2022.
And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.
On top of that the Fed is terrified of ever getting to a deflationary condition, so I expect that multiplier to never go below 1 during my lifetime.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Think many would love being down only 25%. Most were pretty tech heavy entering 2022.
And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.
I ended down 25% too.
Ridgeback
Footballguy
I'm down about 1/3 in my Roth IRA over the last year. Way too much growth gambles ( APPH, TLRY, HGEN, BARK, UWMC, SKLZ, etc) sabotaged any chance of getting out unscathed. My 401k didn't take the hit as hard as I converted all of it to GBIL a few months ago. I'll convert back to a more traditional mix for the long term once I see trends changing. This next year is gonna be FUGLY.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Respectfully disagree there. Inflation is multiplicative - so that 8% will affect all future spending until I (or you) die. Every dollar you have is worth 8% less thanks to the inflationary results of economic decisions made. This is what makes inflation so insidious.Not exactly, down 8% of what you spend. And that % can vary quite a bit.No doubt. The biggest issue is this year is that everyone starts with a -8% or so (if you believe US govt. inflation numbers). That's the baseline, which is brutal. Add on the 250 year bear market in bonds and there was no hiding this year.Think many would love being down only 25%. Most were pretty tech heavy entering 2022.
And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.
On top of that the Fed is terrified of ever getting to a deflationary condition, so I expect that multiplier to never go below 1 during my lifetime.
I totally get what you're saying, but it's not quite that simple. Housing is like 32% of the CPI, but if you don't rent or are a home owner that didn't buy a new home, that didn't apply to you (no better inflation hedge out there than a <3% 30-year fixed!). I don't commute and drive very little, so gas inflation, which is 4% of the CPI, doesn't impact me much. And as someone else commented, if you got a COLA or other raise this year like many people did, that offsets inflation some. Then throw in any substitution you've done with your spending, going with a cheaper cut of beef or switching to a generic brand. A ton of factors. I'd bet my "personal inflation" rate for the past year is nowhere near 8%, probably more like 4%. Which of course still sucks, and to your point is indeed multiplicative.
Sand
Footballguy
Yeah, but I'm on an egg only diet.Respectfully disagree there. Inflation is multiplicative - so that 8% will affect all future spending until I (or you) die. Every dollar you have is worth 8% less thanks to the inflationary results of economic decisions made. This is what makes inflation so insidious.Not exactly, down 8% of what you spend. And that % can vary quite a bit.No doubt. The biggest issue is this year is that everyone starts with a -8% or so (if you believe US govt. inflation numbers). That's the baseline, which is brutal. Add on the 250 year bear market in bonds and there was no hiding this year.Think many would love being down only 25%. Most were pretty tech heavy entering 2022.
And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.
On top of that the Fed is terrified of ever getting to a deflationary condition, so I expect that multiplier to never go below 1 during my lifetime.
I totally get what you're saying, but it's not quite that simple. Housing is like 32% of the CPI, but if you don't rent or are a home owner that didn't buy a new home, that didn't apply to you (no better inflation hedge out there than a <3% 30-year fixed!). I don't commute and drive very little, so gas inflation, which is 4% of the CPI, doesn't impact me much. And as someone else commented, if you got a COLA or other raise this year like many people did, that offsets inflation some. Then throw in any substitution you've done with your spending, going with a cheaper cut of beef or switching to a generic brand. A ton of factors. I'd bet my "personal inflation" rate for the past year is nowhere near 8%, probably more like 4%. Which of course still sucks, and to your point is indeed multiplicative.
Todem
Footballguy
I found a better Nasdaq 100 covered call overwrite ETF
QQQX
Gonna sell out of QYLD next year and exchange it for this one.
So here are my main equity covered call overwrite ETF’s
BXMX
DIAX
QQQX
JEPI
Pure growth equity strategy
ADX
Energy
PEO
Convertible Bond ETF
GCV
Preferred Stock ex financials:
PFXF
Bank Preferred
PGX
A happy and healthy new year to everyone and here is to a much more prosperous 2023.
And I have little doubt we will.
QQQX
Gonna sell out of QYLD next year and exchange it for this one.
So here are my main equity covered call overwrite ETF’s
BXMX
DIAX
QQQX
JEPI
Pure growth equity strategy
ADX
Energy
PEO
Convertible Bond ETF
GCV
Preferred Stock ex financials:
PFXF
Bank Preferred
PGX
A happy and healthy new year to everyone and here is to a much more prosperous 2023.
And I have little doubt we will.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Looks like around 2011 was the last time it was in that range.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Tesla cuts yearly guidance and production outpaces deliveries.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Dang, they’re down over 13% today, now down 42% over the past month.
Capella
Footballguy
I said I’d be interested at another 10% down but I don’t think I am very interested. He’s so toxic and that guidance wasn’t good. People outright hate him.
Todem
Footballguy
A lot of people made a lot of money in this stock….I was not one of them because the valuation never made sense to me. But kudos to those that were early adopters and cashed out.
I would not touch this stock till it had a valuation of a car company like Ford or GM or Toyota….it has a long way to go to get there. Which means more pain.
Bottom line it is a car company. But don’t tell that to TSLA cult members still hanging on.
Capella
Footballguy
Yup. I crushed it in 2020 and first half of 2021 with them. Glad to not be bag holding now. One of the rare ones I’m not lol.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
I trimmed some MSFT yesterday to buy ETHE. Pretty much the best interstock trader in the world so far in 2023.
KGB
Footballguy
Exactly, me too!!! finally!
KGB
Footballguy
I know nothing. But
| Bonfire | IAUX | I-80 Gold Corp |
Bonfire finished top 3 like the last 2 or 3 years in the contest and this is his pick
Nope and glad I’m not. I know it’s popped but you have to go back to 2020/2021 when it came up in here. KALA split 1-50 so the price right now is only $0.80 pre reverse split. I had it and I sold it way above that level. It really plummeted before the past week or so.Anyone hang onto KALA?
McBokonon
Footballguy
$SI just announced their deposits have plummeted and are cutting 40% off their staff, but have also announced everything is fine, don’t worry.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Business update from BBBY as they delay their earnings report.
While the Company continues to pursue actions and steps to improve its cash position and mitigate any potential liquidity shortfall, based on recurring losses and negative cash flow from operations for the nine months ended November 26, 2022, as well as current cash and liquidity projections, the Company has concluded that there is substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern.
Down almost 20% in premarket. Wonder if Ryan Cohen has done anything illegal we’ll hear about. It’s obvious he’s a grifter but is he a criminal grifter?
He made his ton of money off the stock. Between him and that hedge fund college kid, I think they may have skimmed off almost what the market cap is right now. Wonder who “gave” him all that money? Thank goodness we’ve got clarity into his plan for GME. At least we’ll all have the
to remember fondly. The AMC CEO sold all his vested stock back in the heyday as well. Starting to think rich people only care about making money and aren’t trying to enrich the public.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Just wait until February 9th....
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I really hope the bold is sarcasm....He made his ton of money off the stock. Between him and that hedge fund college kid, I think they may have skimmed off almost what the market cap is right now. Wonder who “gave” him all that money? Thank goodness we’ve got clarity into his plan for GME. At least we’ll all have the
Sand
Footballguy
Why? BBBY has been in dire straits for a while now.I really hope the bold is sarcasm....He made his ton of money off the stock. Between him and that hedge fund college kid, I think they may have skimmed off almost what the market cap is right now. Wonder who “gave” him all that money? Thank goodness we’ve got clarity into his plan for GME. At least we’ll all have the
Why? BBBY has been in dire straits for a while now.I really hope the bold is sarcasm....He made his ton of money off the stock. Between him and that hedge fund college kid, I think they may have skimmed off almost what the market cap is right now. Wonder who “gave” him all that money? Thank goodness we’ve got clarity into his plan for GME. At least we’ll all have the
He was talking about what he bolded in my post, not the BBBY announcement. Just another really bad joke by my old FF commish.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
You mean a really good jokeWhy? BBBY has been in dire straits for a while now.I really hope the bold is sarcasm....He made his ton of money off the stock. Between him and that hedge fund college kid, I think they may have skimmed off almost what the market cap is right now. Wonder who “gave” him all that money? Thank goodness we’ve got clarity into his plan for GME. At least we’ll all have the
Todem
Footballguy
Think about how twisted today is.
The Fed without saying it directly “we want people to lose their jobs, stop earning more in wages so we can hit our mythical inflation target of 2%”
Market sees wage inflation cooling market up 2%
Market sees job losses market will go up more
What happens when earnings revisions come in and the market realizes stocks are at richer multiples right now than they should be?
Market starts the retest
End of 2023 we have a sideways market and the market gets wind the Fed is ready to start easing in 2024 to stimulate and pump the balloon again because inflation is in the high 3’s low 4’s.
New bull market
As twisted as it sounds…..this what is shaping.
Total return and yield will never be more important than in 2023. I made point to
Boost yields between .50-1.00 in portfolios depending on goals.
Great day to write covered calls as well. Keep rolling them every quarter like last year.
The Fed without saying it directly “we want people to lose their jobs, stop earning more in wages so we can hit our mythical inflation target of 2%”
Market sees wage inflation cooling market up 2%
Market sees job losses market will go up more
What happens when earnings revisions come in and the market realizes stocks are at richer multiples right now than they should be?
Market starts the retest
End of 2023 we have a sideways market and the market gets wind the Fed is ready to start easing in 2024 to stimulate and pump the balloon again because inflation is in the high 3’s low 4’s.
New bull market
As twisted as it sounds…..this what is shaping.
Total return and yield will never be more important than in 2023. I made point to
Boost yields between .50-1.00 in portfolios depending on goals.
Great day to write covered calls as well. Keep rolling them every quarter like last year.
kevzilla
Footballguy
AFMJF making me jumpy&quo. Any info on this @General Malaise ?
Todem
Footballguy
If you are looking at Vanguard here is how I would allocate my Bond portion if you are tax sensitive and want all muni exposure:
30% - VWALX - High Yield Muni
20% - VWAHX - Long Duration High Quality Muni
35% - VWIUX - Intermediate High Quality Muni
15% - VMLUX - Short Term High Quality Muni
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Yeah, the exiting congress should have just passed a debt ceiling that would last a few years.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
CarMax (KMX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
KMX earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2022.
www.fool.com
So, CarMax had sales drop 25%. Combined with interest rates and inflation pressures the used car market isn't going to be good from a seller, or trade-in perspective, for a while I would think.
For those looking to buy a used car, I would expect prices to be dropping over the next several months.
I think this hurts those trying to buy a new car as their trade-in won't be as valuable. Not to mention those same interest and inflation pressures.
What's also concerning is that they had a large number of repo's.
Anyway...
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Something big is happening in the U.S. housing market—here's where 27 leading research firms think it'll take home prices in 2023
Among the nation's 27 leading housing researchers, 23 expect U.S. home prices to fall further in 2023.
The streak of 124 consecutive months of positive home price growth, a period spanning from the bottom of the previous bust in February 2012 to the top of the Pandemic Housing Boom in June 2022, has been replaced by a new streak: four consecutive months of U.S. home price declines.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
I see fields of green
This is very good news in terms of inflation dropping which will be the key to the stock market rebound.CarMax (KMX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
KMX earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2022.
So, CarMax had sales drop 25%. Combined with interest rates and inflation pressures the used car market isn't going to be good from a seller, or trade-in perspective, for a while I would think.
For those looking to buy a used car, I would expect prices to be dropping over the next several months.
I think this hurts those trying to buy a new car as their trade-in won't be as valuable. Not to mention those same interest and inflation pressures.
What's also concerning is that they had a large number of repo's.
Anyway...
General Malaise
Footballguy
Still view this thing as a long term hold for me personally. I was really hoping they'd be a take-out target, but the appetite for this sort of the thing fell off a cliff the last year or so. But our firm still really likes this one, management is terrific and the market for tin hasn't cooled off. But like a lot of names in the portfolio, this one took a beating too.
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
red roses too
General Malaise
Footballguy
Wish I had had cash back in NKE was in the low 80s. Quite the recovery. :nojinx:
Capella
Footballguy
Hopefully a positive CPI tomorrow
Or we are all screwed
McBokonon
Footballguy
Positive CPI tomorrow means the market thinks Fed will slow/stop rate increases, which will lead to worsening inflation so stocks go down. But if negative CPI, market thinks Fed keeps raising rates and keeps them high longer, so stocks go down.
