Stock Thread (10 Viewers)

[McBokonon]

With the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 28 and heading lower, I plan to start buying calls.

Was just going to post this exact statement.

So this means you think things are going lower?

I think he means the exact opposite.

 

[Caveman33]

With the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 28 and heading lower, I plan to start buying calls.

Was just going to post this exact statement.

So this means you think things are going lower?

A low score indicates Fear whereas high is Greed. I think the market will go lower as that is the trend but I expect it to reverse course within the next couple weeks. Timing is hard. I got distracted a couple months ago when Greed was in the 80s and I wanted to buy puts.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Oof small caps getting absolutely wrecked. Russell 2000 back down almost 30%.

 

[Sand]

With the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 28 and heading lower, I plan to start buying calls.

Still 28 to go.

 

[NajehHejan]

I have my eye on SOXL, if it gets back into the 10-12 range, I’m jumping in with two fists raised.

 

[jwb]

I have my eye on SOXL, if it gets back into the 10-12 range, I’m jumping in with two fists raised.

Me too. And that's the proper way to ride that roller coaster!

 

[Sand]

With the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 28 and heading lower, I plan to start buying calls.

Still 28 to go.

25 to go.

 

[culdeus]

What's Todem's outlook? He under his desk yet?

 

[Capella]

Anybody with an opinion on this Amazon antitrust thing? I expect the federal government will do nothing as usual after a lot of bluster but I am willing to hear other thoughts.

 

[Todem]

What's Todem's outlook? He under his desk yet?

Never under my desk.

I said this year would be all about yield….that is holding true. I think we can easily see more pain in October and then rally into year end to finish at the June highs of this year.

Long as usual.

 

[stbugs]

Anybody with an opinion on this Amazon antitrust thing? I expect the federal government will do nothing as usual after a lot of bluster but I am willing to hear other thoughts.

It’s annoying but likely won’t go anywhere. This is an FTC head who is trying to justify her existence. She wrote a college or law school paper about anti-trust and Amazon. Before Biden appointed her, she was already anti-big tech. It’s still amazing to me that with mountains of competition (web sites, Shopify, Costco, Walmart, Target, HD, and on and on), razor thin profits in e-commerce that she’s going after prices not being lower.

What I still don’t get is why Apple is never brought up in anti-trust. They couldn’t have more of a monopoly and price setting and created products that directly rip off other companies ideas or drive them out. Look at PayPal and Apple Pay. Apple is literally taking PayPal out because I can double click my power button for Apple Pay. Is Amazon destroying Costco and Walmart?

 

[culdeus]

Anybody with an opinion on this Amazon antitrust thing? I expect the federal government will do nothing as usual after a lot of bluster but I am willing to hear other thoughts.

It’s annoying but likely won’t go anywhere. This is an FTC head who is trying to justify her existence. She wrote a college or law school paper about anti-trust and Amazon. Before Biden appointed her, she was already anti-big tech. It’s still amazing to me that with mountains of competition (web sites, Shopify, Costco, Walmart, Target, HD, and on and on), razor thin profits in e-commerce that she’s going after prices not being lower.

What I still don’t get is why Apple is never brought up in anti-trust. They couldn’t have more of a monopoly and price setting and created products that directly rip off other companies ideas or drive them out. Look at PayPal and Apple Pay. Apple is literally taking PayPal out because I can double click my power button for Apple Pay. Is Amazon destroying Costco and Walmart?

Key here is proving they pressure suppliers to giving the best price on Amazon while keeping things higher at Walmart or whatever. If they have the reciepts on this it's going to draw sanctions.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Anybody with an opinion on this Amazon antitrust thing? I expect the federal government will do nothing as usual after a lot of bluster but I am willing to hear other thoughts.

It’s annoying but likely won’t go anywhere. This is an FTC head who is trying to justify her existence. She wrote a college or law school paper about anti-trust and Amazon. Before Biden appointed her, she was already anti-big tech. It’s still amazing to me that with mountains of competition (web sites, Shopify, Costco, Walmart, Target, HD, and on and on), razor thin profits in e-commerce that she’s going after prices not being lower.

What I still don’t get is why Apple is never brought up in anti-trust. They couldn’t have more of a monopoly and price setting and created products that directly rip off other companies ideas or drive them out. Look at PayPal and Apple Pay. Apple is literally taking PayPal out because I can double click my power button for Apple Pay. Is Amazon destroying Costco and Walmart?

Good lobbyists. Lots of work behind the scenes.

 

[Sand]

So the S&P equal weight index is negative for the year. All the gains from this year rest on 8 companies. I'm not sure if we've ever had such a bifurcated market.

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Dips into Red Year-to-Date. Shows Entire Market Depends on 8 Giants, but They’re Swooning Too | Wolf Street

 

[Todem]

So the S&P equal weight index is negative for the year. All the gains from this year rest on 8 companies. I'm not sure if we've ever had such a bifurcated market.

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Dips into Red Year-to-Date. Shows Entire Market Depends on 8 Giants, but They’re Swooning Too | Wolf Street

Like I have also been saying….this is not some broad based rally….and not a bull market.

Second half of 2024 buckle up (I hope). Before then…..be cautious….collect your yield, stay long and pounce on high quality stocks anytime they get cheap.

It has been bizzaro rally in 2023.

 

[Penguin]

Hold steady for now, when the fan starts to hit the **** 2Q 2024 or so you can always jump in $SPXU, $SQQQ & $SDOW

 

[Sand]

So the S&P equal weight index is negative for the year. All the gains from this year rest on 8 companies. I'm not sure if we've ever had such a bifurcated market.

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Dips into Red Year-to-Date. Shows Entire Market Depends on 8 Giants, but They’re Swooning Too | Wolf Street

Like I have also been saying….this is not some broad based rally….and not a bull market.

Second half of 2024 buckle up (I hope). Before then…..be cautious….collect your yield, stay long and pounce on high quality stocks anytime they get cheap.

It has been bizzaro rally in 2023.

Here is one for you to look at. I think I understand it - it's an interesting chart, if complex.

A Chart for the Ages - The Irrelevant Investor

Throwing good money after bad

theirrelevantinvestor.com

Last chart - looks like this is saying that further increases in yield are going to result in smaller decreases while drops in yields will cause an outsize price increase. I guess due to current convexity. Am I reading this right?

If so risk reward looks quite good for longer duration bond funds.

 

[Schmeabs]

So the S&P equal weight index is negative for the year. All the gains from this year rest on 8 companies. I'm not sure if we've ever had such a bifurcated market.

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Dips into Red Year-to-Date. Shows Entire Market Depends on 8 Giants, but They’re Swooning Too | Wolf Street

Like I have also been saying….this is not some broad based rally….and not a bull market.

Second half of 2024 buckle up (I hope). Before then…..be cautious….collect your yield, stay long and pounce on high quality stocks anytime they get cheap.

It has been bizzaro rally in 2023.

Here is one for you to look at. I think I understand it - it's an interesting chart, if complex.

A Chart for the Ages - The Irrelevant Investor

Throwing good money after bad

theirrelevantinvestor.com

Last chart - looks like this is saying that further increases in yield are going to result in smaller decreases while drops in yields will cause an outsize price increase. I guess due to current convexity. Am I reading this right?

If so risk reward looks quite good for longer duration bond funds.

Glad to know I am not the only one piling money into TLT! Not too worried as I am confident it will be a plus trade eventually.

 

[pecorino]

I like TLT, too. Also TDOC at sub $19. Looking at DEO under $150, also.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

So the S&P equal weight index is negative for the year. All the gains from this year rest on 8 companies. I'm not sure if we've ever had such a bifurcated market.

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Dips into Red Year-to-Date. Shows Entire Market Depends on 8 Giants, but They’re Swooning Too | Wolf Street

Interesting. It’s pretty hard to see that as rational.

 

[Sand]

So the S&P equal weight index is negative for the year. All the gains from this year rest on 8 companies. I'm not sure if we've ever had such a bifurcated market.

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Dips into Red Year-to-Date. Shows Entire Market Depends on 8 Giants, but They’re Swooning Too | Wolf Street

Like I have also been saying….this is not some broad based rally….and not a bull market.

Second half of 2024 buckle up (I hope). Before then…..be cautious….collect your yield, stay long and pounce on high quality stocks anytime they get cheap.

It has been bizzaro rally in 2023.

Here is one for you to look at. I think I understand it - it's an interesting chart, if complex.

A Chart for the Ages - The Irrelevant Investor

Throwing good money after bad

theirrelevantinvestor.com

Last chart - looks like this is saying that further increases in yield are going to result in smaller decreases while drops in yields will cause an outsize price increase. I guess due to current convexity. Am I reading this right?

If so risk reward looks quite good for longer duration bond funds.

Glad to know I am not the only one piling money into TLT! Not too worried as I am confident it will be a plus trade eventually.

I'm not in TLT, but am looking. Maybe some TMF or UST?

 

[Sand]

Looking at DEO under $150, also.

Truth - pretty soon we'll need a stiff drink.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Dow futures jump more than 100 points after lawmakers avert government shutdown

 

[culdeus]

So the S&P equal weight index is negative for the year. All the gains from this year rest on 8 companies. I'm not sure if we've ever had such a bifurcated market.

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Dips into Red Year-to-Date. Shows Entire Market Depends on 8 Giants, but They’re Swooning Too | Wolf Street

Interesting. It’s pretty hard to see that as rational.

I would want to see some sort of waterfall chart like that long term. I'd bet there are several narrow market rallies mixed in we just didn't care.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

TGT still getting hammered. Student loan payments starting up should have been baked in by now, so I'm not sure what the deal is today.

 

[Todem]

Utility sector. Great day to start going long in this sector folks.

NEE
AEP
EXC
PPL

If you want to index it you can use:

XLU

Interest rates won’t stay this high forever. In 12 months this sector will rally.

I love the long term value entering/ adding to existing positions here.

It is the worst performing sector in 2023.

 

[culdeus]

Utility sector. Great day to start going long in this sector folks.

NEE
AEP
EXC
PPL

If you want to index it you can use:

XLU

Interest rates won’t stay this high forever. In 12 months this sector will rally.

I love the long term value entering/ adding to existing positions here.

It is the worst performing sector in 2023.

What's the risk here? Natural Gas prices moon?

 

[Todem]

Utility sector. Great day to start going long in this sector folks.

NEE
AEP
EXC
PPL

If you want to index it you can use:

XLU

Interest rates won’t stay this high forever. In 12 months this sector will rally.

I love the long term value entering/ adding to existing positions here.

It is the worst performing sector in 2023.

What's the risk here? Natural Gas prices moon?

Couple of things going on.

Interest rate capitulation

And green energy sell off.

I have owned utilities my entire investing life. When the sector is down over 20% it’s a fire sale.

It’s a very defensive, boring sector that pays great dividends long term. However when you can get a risk free 5% in a money market….it’s not attractive. So take advantage of this selloff in the long term.

All those positions I posted….12 months from now? Probably will be up 12-20% and your collecting the dividend to boot.

It’s a nice opportunity to get very defensive dividend paying stocks cheap.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Utility sector. Great day to start going long in this sector folks.

NEE
AEP
EXC
PPL

If you want to index it you can use:

XLU

Interest rates won’t stay this high forever. In 12 months this sector will rally.

I love the long term value entering/ adding to existing positions here.

It is the worst performing sector in 2023.

What's the risk here? Natural Gas prices moon?

Couple of things going on.

Interest rate capitulation

And green energy sell off.

I have owned utilities my entire investing life. When the sector is down over 20% it’s a fire sale.

It’s a very defensive, boring sector that pays great dividends long term. However when you can get a risk free 5% in a money market….it’s not attractive. So take advantage of this selloff in the long term.

All those positions I posted….12 months from now? Probably will be up 12-20% and your collecting the dividend to boot.

It’s a nice opportunity to get very defensive dividend paying stocks cheap.

Do you think they're at or near the bottom yet? I've caught a lot of falling knives this year where even when they rebounded 20% they were still below where I bought them up, or merely back to even or a small game. Even averaging in I'v been either averaging in too fast (still well ahead of the bottom) or too slow (it bounces sharply off the bottom and I barely get any entries down near it.

 

[Sand]

Utility sector. Great day to start going long in this sector folks.

EXC

I still own a ton of this and it's spinoff CEG. Both have been very good to me.

 

[Todem]

Utility sector. Great day to start going long in this sector folks.

EXC

I still own a ton of this and it's spinoff CEG. Both have been very good to me.

CEG was a monster spin off winner!!

 

[Todem]

XLU

Interest rates won’t stay this high forever. In 12 months this sector will rally.

I love the long term value entering/ adding to existing positions here.

It is the worst performing sector in 2023.

What's the risk here? Natural Gas prices moon?

Couple of things going on.

Interest rate capitulation

And green energy sell off.

I have owned utilities my entire investing life. When the sector is down over 20% it’s a fire sale.

It’s a very defensive, boring sector that pays great dividends long term. However when you can get a risk free 5% in a money market….it’s not attractive. So take advantage of this selloff in the long term.

All those positions I posted….12 months from now? Probably will be up 12-20% and your collecting the dividend to boot.

It’s a nice opportunity to get very defensive dividend paying stocks cheap.

Do you think they're at or near the bottom yet? I've caught a lot of falling knives this year where even when they rebounded 20% they were still below where I bought them up, or merely back to even or a small game. Even averaging in I'v been either averaging in too fast (still well ahead of the bottom) or too slow (it bounces sharply off the bottom and I barely get any entries down near it.

You can never tell 100% However today felt like a bottom forming. I mean this sector has been beaten down hard. These are not high multiple tech stocks.

Another great company that has sold off and is a staple is:

GIS

It is now getting cheap again…..FYI!!

 

[ChiefD]

Utility sector. Great day to start going long in this sector folks.

EXC

I still own a ton of this and it's spinoff CEG. Both have been very good to me.

CEG was a monster spin off winner!!

Yeah, that was a great call. Thank you for that.

 

[Capella]

We had a good day yesterday so it stands to reason we will get crushed today.

 

[ChiefD]

Stocks are dumb.

 

[kevzilla]

We had a good day yesterday so it stands to reason we will get crushed today.

Feeling your pain, but also curious about the average portfolio beta of a FBG vs. the general population.

 

[Todem]

Man..... utilities are really oversold guys.

XLU if you want to take the guess work out.

Go long. Very hard to say where the bottom is......but man....this is getting stupid now.

The market is acting like we are never cutting rates again.......and if I were a betting man....second half of 2024 the cutting will begin.

 

[Todem]

Welp someone heard me.

XLU went green after hitting a fresh 52 week low.

 

[Sand]

Welp someone heard me.

XLU went green after hitting a fresh 52 week low.

Bought a bunch at 55.7 or so.

Can you please now comment to our overlords how oversold the whole market is now? TIA.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Fear and Greed index at 17 now.

 

[culdeus]

Mortgage rates hit 8 before or after Halloween

 

[Sand]

Fear and Greed index at 17 now.

17 to go!

 

[Todem]

Mortgage rates hit 8 before or after Halloween

At this rate before.

We are seeing some capitulation here folks.

Tech is the next shoe that needs to drop soon because as I have been saying now for a while….this rally we had that peaked in August….has been nothing but a tech run-up and not a broad based bull market rally.

So hopefully we see a bottom in the next week or two. Things are not horrible in the economy…….and bonds are also getting taken to the outhouse again here.

It sucks.

Sit tight. Remain calm. I expect a nice rally back to the 2023 highs by year end.

Second half of 2024 is when I feel the new bull market will begin if the Fed does what I expect.

Cutting interest rates.

 

[pecorino]

Mortgage rates hit 8 before or after Halloween

At this rate before.

We are seeing some capitulation here folks.

Tech is the next shoe that needs to drop soon because as I have been saying now for a while….this rally we had that peaked in August….has been nothing but a tech run-up and not a broad based bull market rally.

So hopefully we see a bottom in the next week or two. Things are not horrible in the economy…….and bonds are also getting taken to the outhouse again here.

It sucks.

Sit tight. Remain calm. I expect a nice rally back to the 2023 highs by year end.

Second half of 2024 is when I feel the mew bull market will begin if the Fed does what I expect.

Cutting interest rates.

I'm buying what you're selling. Also buying TLT, DEO, XLU (as per your suggestion) and LMT.

 

[Nugget]

Mortgage rates hit 8 before or after Halloween

At this rate before.

We are seeing some capitulation here folks.

Tech is the next shoe that needs to drop soon because as I have been saying now for a while….this rally we had that peaked in August….has been nothing but a tech run-up and not a broad based bull market rally.

So hopefully we see a bottom in the next week or two. Things are not horrible in the economy…….and bonds are also getting taken to the outhouse again here.

It sucks.

Sit tight. Remain calm. I expect a nice rally back to the 2023 highs by year end.

Second half of 2024 is when I feel the new bull market will begin if the Fed does what I expect.

Cutting interest rates.

What signals are needed for the Fed to cut rates? Im not sure I see inflation or job openings dropping - we can’t get enough goods produced.

 

[culdeus]

Mortgage rates hit 8 before or after Halloween

At this rate before.

We are seeing some capitulation here folks.

Tech is the next shoe that needs to drop soon because as I have been saying now for a while….this rally we had that peaked in August….has been nothing but a tech run-up and not a broad based bull market rally.

So hopefully we see a bottom in the next week or two. Things are not horrible in the economy…….and bonds are also getting taken to the outhouse again here.

It sucks.

Sit tight. Remain calm. I expect a nice rally back to the 2023 highs by year end.

Second half of 2024 is when I feel the new bull market will begin if the Fed does what I expect.

Cutting interest rates.

Can we just not capitulate? Asking for a friend

 

[Todem]

Mortgage rates hit 8 before or after Halloween

At this rate before.

We are seeing some capitulation here folks.

Tech is the next shoe that needs to drop soon because as I have been saying now for a while….this rally we had that peaked in August….has been nothing but a tech run-up and not a broad based bull market rally.

So hopefully we see a bottom in the next week or two. Things are not horrible in the economy…….and bonds are also getting taken to the outhouse again here.

It sucks.

Sit tight. Remain calm. I expect a nice rally back to the 2023 highs by year end.

Second half of 2024 is when I feel the new bull market will begin if the Fed does what I expect.

Cutting interest rates.

Can we just not capitulate? Asking for a friend

This is the biggest drawdown we have had since October 2022….it still has dome legs…but not much left imo.

 

[Todem]

Mortgage rates hit 8 before or after Halloween

At this rate before.

We are seeing some capitulation here folks.

Tech is the next shoe that needs to drop soon because as I have been saying now for a while….this rally we had that peaked in August….has been nothing but a tech run-up and not a broad based bull market rally.

So hopefully we see a bottom in the next week or two. Things are not horrible in the economy…….and bonds are also getting taken to the outhouse again here.

It sucks.

Sit tight. Remain calm. I expect a nice rally back to the 2023 highs by year end.

Second half of 2024 is when I feel the new bull market will begin if the Fed does what I expect.

Cutting interest rates.

What signals are needed for the Fed to cut rates? Im not sure I see inflation or job openings dropping - we can’t get enough goods produced.

Once we see the economy slow down enough and we will see that first half next year….I have little doubt about that.

These fast and big raises take time to take effect…..and now we will see that from now thru next year.

If this happens…by third quarter 2024 the easing will start.

If not we will have prolonged stagflation as I expect unemployment to start to rise here shortly.

 

[Sand]

Mortgage rates hit 8 before or after Halloween

At this rate before.

We are seeing some capitulation here folks.

Tech is the next shoe that needs to drop soon because as I have been saying now for a while….this rally we had that peaked in August….has been nothing but a tech run-up and not a broad based bull market rally.

So hopefully we see a bottom in the next week or two. Things are not horrible in the economy…….and bonds are also getting taken to the outhouse again here.

It sucks.

Sit tight. Remain calm. I expect a nice rally back to the 2023 highs by year end.

Second half of 2024 is when I feel the new bull market will begin if the Fed does what I expect.

Cutting interest rates.

Can we just not capitulate? Asking for a friend

Close enough?

 

[Desert_Power]

Man..... utilities are really oversold guys.

XLU if you want to take the guess work out.

Go long. Very hard to say where the bottom is......but man....this is getting stupid now.

The market is acting like we are never cutting rates again.......and if I were a betting man....second half of 2024 the cutting will begin.

Are you not a fan of BEP at all? Seems like a lot of the recent sell-off was driven by NEE news. NEE is ~15% of XLU, no firm specific concerns for you there?

Appreciate your thoughts as always and in this space in particular.