Stock Thread (26 Viewers)

[SFBayDuck]

NVDA has been down 16.5% this week, up 9% and now down 6% again. Great stuff.

If that's not enough vol for ya, pick up some NVDL and 2x it!

 

[McBokonon]

Caught a couple minutes of Tesla's call. My brief summary:

MUSK: Look, Optimus is gonna scale up 50, no wait, 500, no wait, a bazillion gazillion percent per year and it's gonna give you all the women you could possible want. It'll take you to space and back and get you higher than crack and each high will be just like the first time, no chasing. There is no SEC, there is only Tesla and Musk. I say what I want and there will be no repercussions. Did I mention I can fly? We'll make the Model Y fly, too, by ****ing July. OF THIS YEAR.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Caught a couple minutes of Tesla's call. My brief summary:

MUSK: Look, Optimus is gonna scale up 50, no wait, 500, no wait, a bazillion gazillion percent per year and it's gonna give you all the women you could possible want. It'll take you to space and back and get you higher than crack and each high will be just like the first time, no chasing. There is no SEC, there is only Tesla and Musk. I say what I want and there will be no repercussions. Did I mention I can fly? We'll make the Model Y fly, too, by ****ing July. OF THIS YEAR.

Gotta hand it to him. Garbage earnings report and he still grifted it higher in the aftermarket.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I thought their intercepting all the condoms bound for Gaza and using them for flotation to make the Model W amphibious was genius.

 

[SFBayDuck]

A bunch of charts. A few things that stood out to me....

• How highly correlated bonds have been to equities this century, and the potential that could be changing going forward. This one is of particular interest to me in terms of asset allocation for retirement planning
• The outperformance of companies with lower employees to sales ratio. Seems like a "no duh", but I'd like to dig into that a little more.
• A few that indicate that valuations are not as stretched as many seem to think they are, in light of economic conditions and earnings growth, along with a few others indicating returns are likely to be lower going forward because of current valuations.
• How rare recessions are now, compared to in the past.

What stood out to y'all?

 

[stbugs]

Caught a couple minutes of Tesla's call. My brief summary:

MUSK: Look, Optimus is gonna scale up 50, no wait, 500, no wait, a bazillion gazillion percent per year and it's gonna give you all the women you could possible want. It'll take you to space and back and get you higher than crack and each high will be just like the first time, no chasing. There is no SEC, there is only Tesla and Musk. I say what I want and there will be no repercussions. Did I mention I can fly? We'll make the Model Y fly, too, by ****ing July. OF THIS YEAR.

Gotta hand it to him. Garbage earnings report and he still grifted it higher in the aftermarket.

It still amazes me when I’ve had so many stocks blow past top and bottom and get killed. IBM was up a lot after the bell because they had a tiny beat on earnings and matched revenue. Their revenue was up 1% year over year, 1%. IBM revenue and earnings are up a total of 10-15% since 2021 or 2020. That’s almost no growth which seems low for a 40 P/E and a stock that’s doubled in that same time. How do you get a stock that goes up 9% on a barely beat and almost no revenue growth? Mind boggling reactions due to I’m sure some “AI” is growing stuff I’m sure they said. If you go back to 2020/2021, the pop tonight is worth 20% of the stock price back then and the revenue/earnings growth since that point is less than the pop tonight, ignoring the stock doubling before tonight.

Just one more stock that’s makes me really nervous about the current environment. Stodgy old IBM has grown like a slug for 4-5 years and yet the stock is up 9% on 1% revenue growth after doubling in the same 4-5 years.

 

[Sand]

Starbucks’ same-store sales in China, its second-largest market, fell 6%, fueled by a 4% decline in average ticket. The coffee giant has been leaning into discounts in China to compete with rivals that have much lower prices, such as Luckin Coffee.

Is that the same book cookin' Luckin that bent investors over and gave them a *uckin?

Indeed it is. “Cleaned house” and emerged from bankruptcy a few years ago after investors got nothing. I wasn’t in this one but was in some other chinese companies that also cooked their books, never again!

And now NVDA is almost 20% off its ATH due to one of those same Chinese companies that may be lying their arse off.

Saw an interview about it today. DeepSeek was trained using ChatGPT to the extent that it self identified as ChatGPT.

Obviously without permission (typical Chinese behavior).

 

[Ridgeback]

Caught a couple minutes of Tesla's call. My brief summary:

MUSK: Look, Optimus is gonna scale up 50, no wait, 500, no wait, a bazillion gazillion percent per year and it's gonna give you all the women you could possible want. It'll take you to space and back and get you higher than crack and each high will be just like the first time, no chasing. There is no SEC, there is only Tesla and Musk. I say what I want and there will be no repercussions. Did I mention I can fly? We'll make the Model Y fly, too, by ****ing July. OF THIS YEAR.

Gotta hand it to him. Garbage earnings report and he still grifted it higher in the aftermarket.

For sure. This pump and dump of so many sectors is going to be epic.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Epic Pump n Dump is the name of my Aerosmith cover band featuring Odell Beckham Jr.

 

[McBokonon]

$CLS

 

[urbanhack]

Starbucks’ same-store sales in China, its second-largest market, fell 6%, fueled by a 4% decline in average ticket. The coffee giant has been leaning into discounts in China to compete with rivals that have much lower prices, such as Luckin Coffee.

Is that the same book cookin' Luckin that bent investors over and gave them a *uckin?

Indeed it is. “Cleaned house” and emerged from bankruptcy a few years ago after investors got nothing. I wasn’t in this one but was in some other chinese companies that also cooked their books, never again!

And now NVDA is almost 20% off its ATH due to one of those same Chinese companies that may be lying their arse off.

Saw an interview about it today. DeepSeek was trained using ChatGPT to the extent that it self identified as ChatGPT.

Obviously without permission (typical Chinese behavior).

How did Open AI train its models? With what data? Did they pay for it?

 

[Sand]

Starbucks’ same-store sales in China, its second-largest market, fell 6%, fueled by a 4% decline in average ticket. The coffee giant has been leaning into discounts in China to compete with rivals that have much lower prices, such as Luckin Coffee.

Is that the same book cookin' Luckin that bent investors over and gave them a *uckin?

Indeed it is. “Cleaned house” and emerged from bankruptcy a few years ago after investors got nothing. I wasn’t in this one but was in some other chinese companies that also cooked their books, never again!

And now NVDA is almost 20% off its ATH due to one of those same Chinese companies that may be lying their arse off.

Saw an interview about it today. DeepSeek was trained using ChatGPT to the extent that it self identified as ChatGPT.

Obviously without permission (typical Chinese behavior).

How did Open AI train its models? With what data? Did they pay for it?

No idea how Open AI trained its models.

From the interview I saw the Deepseek folks were using a process called distillation (first I'd heard of this). Asking ChatGPT a million questions and using it as the instructor. From what was said in the interview this is a common, though sleazy, practice. The guy postulated that it wasn't paid for and is a IP infringement, though "it happens all the time".

 

[McBokonon]

Starbucks’ same-store sales in China, its second-largest market, fell 6%, fueled by a 4% decline in average ticket. The coffee giant has been leaning into discounts in China to compete with rivals that have much lower prices, such as Luckin Coffee.

Is that the same book cookin' Luckin that bent investors over and gave them a *uckin?

Indeed it is. “Cleaned house” and emerged from bankruptcy a few years ago after investors got nothing. I wasn’t in this one but was in some other chinese companies that also cooked their books, never again!

And now NVDA is almost 20% off its ATH due to one of those same Chinese companies that may be lying their arse off.

Saw an interview about it today. DeepSeek was trained using ChatGPT to the extent that it self identified as ChatGPT.

Obviously without permission (typical Chinese behavior).

How did Open AI train its models? With what data? Did they pay for it?

I've seen this get brought up a lot and I don't disagree with the underlying point, but I think it's pretty funny that we might have had a total semiconductor meltdown this week for what is essentially a skin of an existing product.

 

[Capella]

@Todem with another great call on EAT. Bought back in Sept, up a cool 140% since then.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

$CLS

We need to recruit people who tell us about these stocks before they go up. First I'm hearing of this one.

 

[McBokonon]

$CLS

We need to recruit people who tell us about these stocks before they go up. First I'm hearing of this one.

Same. I don't even know what they do. Ball bearings or something.

 

[ChiefD]

Same. I don't even know what they do. Ball bearings or something.

I might trail Quaker State on this one just to cover my bases.

 

[kevzilla]

BX beats the number handily. Then the CEO calls the bottom in commercial real estate, and puts money where his mouth is by announcing the purchase of an office building and a hotel in Manhattan. Stock is down over 4%. I don't know, man.

 

[BassNBrew]

For anyone who tails Todem, DOW down 6% today. That puts the dividend over 7%.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Assuming they keep it in place.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Was this just a "squeeze everything we can into this quarter" effort? Or do they have more significant issues? Haven't had a chance to look at the results at all.

 

[pecorino]

For anyone who tails Todem, DOW down 6% today. That puts the dividend over 7%.

Thanks for the tip. In.

 

[nysfl2]

Assuming they keep it in place.

They will - they've paid it every quarter since 1912

 

[McBokonon]

Assuming they keep it in place.

They will - they've paid it every quarter since 1912

Kodak started paying them in the 1930's before stopping in 2003. JC Penny started paying dividends in the 1920's and now they are the saddest places on earth. It happens. Good companies sometimes become not so good companies, even after a very, very long time. (I have no opinion on DOW, not my cup of tea).

 

[Sand]

For anyone who tails Todem, DOW down 6% today. That puts the dividend over 7%.

When I was assessing these companies a bit back I chose to buy LYB instead. I liked (and still like) the valuation a bit better.

 

[McBokonon]

I don’t personally like it, but I know some of you like $CVS - going to get a dip today that has everything to do with Walgreens being terrible and nothing to do with $CVS.

$WBA suspended their dividend yesterday.

 

[Todem]

For anyone who tails Todem, DOW down 6% today. That puts the dividend over 7%.

Double team that with LYB for a long term hold at these levels.

 

[McBokonon]

Haven't really looked into them yet, but I noticed that EAT spun off new ticker symbol $TWNP and wanted to keep everyone abreast of it. Sagging a bit today, but I'm not sure if it just priced too high or if there's a handful of issues I'm unaware of. In any event, I'm sure there'll be mounds of articles out on them soon to help us decide if this is an opportunity we can milk during this strong bull market.

 

[stbugs]

Haven't really looked into them yet, but I noticed that EAT spun off new ticker symbol $TWNP and wanted to keep everyone abreast of it. Sagging a bit today, but I'm not sure if it just priced too high or if there's a handful of issues I'm unaware of. In any event, I'm sure there'll be mounds of articles out on them soon to help us decide if this is an opportunity we can milk during this strong bull market.

FAT is the company that spun off TWNP, not EAT.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Haven't really looked into them yet, but I noticed that EAT spun off new ticker symbol $TWNP and wanted to keep everyone abreast of it. Sagging a bit today, but I'm not sure if it just priced too high or if there's a handful of issues I'm unaware of. In any event, I'm sure there'll be mounds of articles out on them soon to help us decide if this is an opportunity we can milk during this strong bull market.

FAT is the company that spun off TWNP, not EAT.

At least somebody is staying abreast of the situation.

 

[McBokonon]

Haven't really looked into them yet, but I noticed that EAT spun off new ticker symbol $TWNP and wanted to keep everyone abreast of it. Sagging a bit today, but I'm not sure if it just priced too high or if there's a handful of issues I'm unaware of. In any event, I'm sure there'll be mounds of articles out on them soon to help us decide if this is an opportunity we can milk during this strong bull market.

FAT is the company that spun off TWNP, not EAT.

Crap. Thanks for nipping this in the bud before my misinformation spread.

 

[MTskibum]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

 

[guru_007]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Not sure this is accurate, do you have a link?
Their margins are generally largest in the industry, by far. I'm not a Tesla bull by any means, but I'd like t read where you get this. Their margins are closer to 15%. I know rebates had factored into this a bit as well, and not sure how carbon offsets come in to play either. I don't follow auto industry at all, because I'd never invest in a company with unions, but TSLA has no union.

 

[MTskibum]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Not sure this is accurate, do you have a link?
Their margins are generally largest in the industry, by far. I'm not a Tesla bull by any means, but I'd like t read where you get this. Their margins are closer to 15%. I know rebates had factored into this a bit as well, and not sure how carbon offsets come in to play either. I don't follow auto industry at all, because I'd never invest in a company with unions, but TSLA has no union.

Making me show my work on a friday afternoon!


They had 2.3 billion in net income in Q4, however according to korean hearald 600 million of that was from how they changed their bitcoin accounting and they also had 700 million in regulatory credit sales as per 2nd link below.

This means their net income from only car sales is only 1 billion. If you include the bitcoin and regulatory credits they had a terrible 6.2% operating margin according to Ars technica below, however without that bitcoin and regulatory credits their operating margin would have been under 3%.



https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10408866


site for below quote:
Tesla's carbon credits saw impressive growth, with the company reporting $692 million earned from these sales during Q4, which accounts for nearly 30% of its quarterly net income.

Site for below quote:
Total revenue grew by 2 percent in Q4, but income fell by 23 percent, and its operating margin has dropped to just 6.2 percent—the lowest since Q1 2024. By contrast, the industry average operating margin for an automaker is around 10 percent. Net profits fell an astounding 71 percent to $2.3 billion.

 

[guru_007]

LOL, thanks for this. I'll dig into this over the weekend. TSLA is an interesting company for sure. Half the people think it's going to 20 and the other half 2000. I like hearing both sides!

 

[MTskibum]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Not sure this is accurate, do you have a link?
Their margins are generally largest in the industry, by far. I'm not a Tesla bull by any means, but I'd like t read where you get this. Their margins are closer to 15%. I know rebates had factored into this a bit as well, and not sure how carbon offsets come in to play either. I don't follow auto industry at all, because I'd never invest in a company with unions, but TSLA has no union.

Just 18 months ago i was posting here about how they had the highest marigins in the industry and although i did expect them to drop i did not expect this big of drop. It is pretty shocking.

Post in thread 'Electric Cars (Tesla and Others)'

Apr 21, 2023

So prices on the 3 and Y have apparently both dropped considerably this year (like 20-30%). I know the idea was that the prices would drop once production ramped up and the battery prices dropped. Is that’s what’s happening, or could this be due to other factors like the stock price dropping, Elons Twitter purchase and fallout, or the space X rocket exploding the other day? Might those dropping prices continue?

They should continue to drop. The reason they are dropping is because Tesla's the last couple years have had the largest profit margin of any car in the industry. Elon...

• MTskibum

• 

Post in thread 'Car Market going forward'

Apr 10, 2023

@CarDealershipGuy tweeted that Capital One is pulling their floor plans and has plans to get out of the inventory lending game.

He pulled the tweet because Twitter went Twitter.
But it appears that what the original tweet says remains true.

Either way, there's a truckload of bad car loans floating out there right now, and they continue to get made. If I were a bank, I wouldn't want to be loaning too much money to buyers or dealers right now.

I don't know what the car market equivalent to the '08 mortgage crisis is, but something like that has to be coming.

I’d love to...

• MTskibum

• 

 

[BassNBrew]

@Todem Any tariff plays we may want to attack in the after hours?

 

[Todem]

@Todem Any tariff plays we may want to attack in the after hours?

Oil…..I would be buying some big oil cheap.

PEO is a nice diversified actively managed closed end from Adams Express (ADX).

CVX got hit today…..I like that stock.

I am standing back right now and just letting the market…..be the market as it recalibrates to a new administration and take advantage of disconnected headline risk and nibble on quality when we aee some whooshs.

Monday was a heck of day to do that.

Those kind of days…are buying days.

Also so much defense has really performed well this year. That’s refreshing. Staples, industrials and utilities. I am kicking the S&P’s *** so far this yesr because of how top heavy it became in 2024.

Stock pickers market in 2025 for sure.

 

[General Malaise]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Dynamite drop in, Monty.

 

[MTskibum]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Dynamite drop in, Monty.

Not sure I understand?

 

[MTskibum]

@Todem Any tariff plays we may want to attack in the after hours?

Oil…..I would be buying some big oil cheap.

I hope you are correct, I work for big oil and it is grim right now. Just went through a round of layoffs 2 weeks ago, there is a travel ban, spending freeze, etc.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Was on a call with two consultants who are decades long Republican veterans (Chamber of Commerce, Gingrich Repubs) and they threw their hands up and said there really is not much rhyme or reason to the tariffs. “It depends on how Trump feels that day.”

Sharing for business purposes - we are really in uncharted water here folks.

 

[General Malaise]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Dynamite drop in, Monty.

Not sure I understand?

I've long given up the exercise of suggesting where a mo-mo stock "should be". Impossible to say with certainty where a stock like TSLA "should be". IMO. I've witnessed investors far smarter than me try to short this one for YEARS only to get burned.

But I'm an idiot. Maybe you're correct. Are you shorting it here and now? If not, why not? It's got a clean borrow so armed with certainty, tell me why you aren't levered up and short this one?

 

[General Malaise]

I've also seen Tesla car owners express romantic love for their vehicles in a way other car owners have never expressed.

 

[McBokonon]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

 

[McBokonon]

tell me why you aren't levered up and short this one?

Probably the same reason I would never short GME or DJT - we can realize something is overvalued and the price is detached from reality, but also know that the support for a stock is not based on fundamentals in any way, shape, or form and it's best to steer clear.

 

[Sand]

Haven't really looked into them yet, but I noticed that EAT spun off new ticker symbol $TWNP and wanted to keep everyone abreast of it. Sagging a bit today, but I'm not sure if it just priced too high or if there's a handful of issues I'm unaware of. In any event, I'm sure there'll be mounds of articles out on them soon to help us decide if this is an opportunity we can milk during this strong bull market.

FAT is the company that spun off TWNP, not EAT.

Crap. Thanks for nipping this in the bud before my misinformation spread.

The FFA hit squad has been dispatched (trained and led by LHUCKS, of course). It's been good knowing you, GB.

 

[tommyGunZ]

we are really in uncharted water here folks.

We charted these waters for four years once before, same thing. NPR even tried to create a stock trading bot that would take action just off tweets. Eventually the stock swings (because that's what this thread is about) became less severe once the market adjusted to the fact that, often times, nothing substantial actually happened.

The folks I work with say this is different. In 2016 Trump was largely surrounded by traditional, establishment figures (think Rex Tillerson). That’s not the case, at all right now.

I hope you are right and that we’ll be fine. I’m just far more worried, as are lots of companies.

 

[General Malaise]

tell me why you aren't levered up and short this one?

Probably the same reason I would never short GME or DJT - we can realize something is overvalued and the price is detached from reality, but also know that the support for a stock is not based on fundamentals in any way, shape, or form and it's best to steer clear.

Right, irrationality. TSLA stock action is irrational. Has been for years. And yet.....you'd be broke of you tried to fight it.

Saying it's a $20 dollar stock because the margins are razor thin isn't going to compel the bulls to sell it and the bears are too afraid to short it.

 

[MTskibum]

Tesla made 3% margin on their cars last quarter, that is one of the lowest in industry if not the worst and the market barely reacted.

The stock price should be 20 dollars, the crash has to happen sooner or later.

Dynamite drop in, Monty.

Not sure I understand?

I've long given up the exercise of suggesting where a mo-mo stock "should be". Impossible to say with certainty where a stock like TSLA "should be". IMO. I've witnessed investors far smarter than me try to short this one for YEARS only to get burned.

But I'm an idiot. Maybe you're correct. Are you shorting it here and now? If not, why not? It's got a clean borrow so armed with certainty, tell me why you aren't levered up and short this one?

I have everything in mutual funds to be honest, which my wife manages, and I don't know the first thing about shorting a stock.

I am a car nut and Tesla is in real trouble as a car company. I know people have been saying to short for a while, but that was when Tesla was growing and they had STUPID profit margins. Now car sales are flat and their profit margins are terrible.

Lets take the model 3 it released the same year as the previous generation toyota camry in 2017, since that time Toyota created a new car from scratch to call toyota camry and released that vehicle in 2023.

Now the model 3 is competing against a vehicle much more modern, and that is just one example. Car companies on average do major redesigns every ~5-7 years or so.