Stock Thread (5 Viewers)

[Wooderson]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Curious how far are you from retirement. I just don't have the guts to go all cash. I don't think I can predict the market. I have bought the last two days and have been wrong both days it looks like.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I figure I’ll continue to average into my current holdings with the sale.

What are we thinking on TSLA, sale price or avoid due to political nature now? Still have a nice gain I could take.

I wish I'd have sold at $450 of course, but I've had pretty good luck the last few years just buying any super major drop. Just purely on the same when there's any little but of good news it will always have some huge run and get it back eventually.

Unlike the EV car buying sector, in the stock buying sector I think the number of people that like new-Elon at least cancels out the number of people that dislike him, so I think those momentum runs will still happen.

 

[kevzilla]

We did the math together, and the old man is 55% cash. He is also 88 years old and has multiple myeloma, and the amount of cash that lets him sleep at night is the right amount. The fact that it does just run into seven figures is irrelevant, and will not come up at their 67th anniversary dinner on Monday.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Any thought to the fact that the Fed is about to refinance about 2 trillion of debt ...
Would it be beneficial if interest rates were down? Does a crashing market help them with this in any way?

Rates have not moved a whole lot.

It's been a decent move, but the market is still caught between whether inflation or recession is the most imminent risk.

Don't underestimate the chances of the daily double.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I’ll ask it differently: how do you decide how much “cash” or “equivalents” to have on hand?

I don’t keep any cash around other than 5-10 grand buffer in my accounts. If something horrible happened and I needed money I have plenty of stocks I can sell off. I’m not a believer in keeping cash around. I buy buy buy like I’m in n’sync.

Yeah, all depends on life circumstances. My company is somewhat chaotic and more risky than the norm. So I gladly keep more cash/short term stuff than suggested. Flip side is my company stock is up almost 4x in the past two years. In a past life at a big boring stable company I was at 3 mos cash outlay……

 

[BassNBrew]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

 

[GreenNGold]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

Thanks for your concern and in the past I would have given the same exact advice to others. The pandemic and other crises were unexpected events that we worked through to fix. I feel like this is either intentional self-destruction or incompetence that is derailing one of the best economies we ever had, and would prefer to wait on the sidelines for a bit (I'm trying to avoid politics by saying that, and talking about the policies that have been implemented, so hopefully that isn't going too far). I will be looking to start getting back in (I want to be fully invested long-term) either as I start feeling better or I feel companies become a better value -- I know I might miss a short-term bounce back, and am hoping I don't cost myself too much. Right now the peace of mind is worth it for me, and I'm going to be researching/looking for good opportunities to start buying back in.

For those looking for some more information on tariffs, I think Erica York who was on CNBC yesterday had a lot of good information on just how damaging the current tariff polices are: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/03/how-trumps-tariffs-will-affect-the-u-s-economy.html

 

[ghostguy123]

Man, I looked just a bit ago and the S&P went from down like 4.4% to 5.4%.
Little end of the week selloff

Edit...looked right after typing that, -5.75

I have some cash to deploy, but man, I think I'll just wait.

Edit...-5.85 after typing that

Edit.,.-5.9

What was the worst day when COVID hit? I don't even remember.

 

[BassNBrew]

I sold Barkley when he was on the Giants for the safety of Pickens. Figured worst case I could trade back for Barkley later. Doesn’t look so good in hindsight.

 

[General Malaise]

We did the math together, and the old man is 55% cash. He is also 88 years old and has multiple myeloma, and the amount of cash that lets him sleep at night is the right amount. The fact that it does just run into seven figures is irrelevant, and will not come up at their 67th anniversary dinner on Monday.

Where's dinner?

 

[Nugget]

Man, I looked just a bit ago and the S&P went from down like 4.4% to 5.4%.
Little end of the week selloff

Edit...looked right after typing that, -5.75

I have some cash to deploy, but man, I think I'll just wait.

Edit...-5.85 after typing that

I have no idea what could happen this weekend.

 

[General Malaise]

I sold Barkley when he was on the Giants for the safety of Pickens. Figured worst case I could trade back for Barkley later. Doesn’t look so good in hindsight.

You think that's bad, I know a guy who sold Luka Dončić for Street Clothes Davis and late round first!

 

[ghostguy123]

Man, I looked just a bit ago and the S&P went from down like 4.4% to 5.4%.
Little end of the week selloff

Edit...looked right after typing that, -5.75

I have some cash to deploy, but man, I think I'll just wait.

Edit...-5.85 after typing that

I have no idea what could happen this weekend.

I do and unfortunately it looks like me picking up some extra hours at work so I can max out my 403b for the year

 

[Orange&Blue]

70% decline in summer travel

if only i wanted to travel in the US...

 

[Sleestak]

I feel bad for people that just retired or planned on retiring over the next few months. Talk about anxiety.

I'm planning to retire at the end of June. I'm a Fed, taking advantage of the VERA. Will be 55 in a couple months. My plans haven't changed. I won't need to sell stocks until 2028 at the soonest, and can stretch it to 2030 pretty comfortably, which makes it easier to stay chill. I've been building my money market, CD, and iBond balances since 2022. Glad I did. In the decades prior to 2022 I was "Captain Equities".

That said, I do hope this is more or less the bottom (and not only for myself). My office-mate and I, both bearish regarding this admin, threw our picks for end-2025 S&P on the white board. His was 5500, and mine was 5200. Anyway, this kind of crash was not a surprise to either of us.

 

[BassNBrew]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

Thanks for your concern and in the past I would have given the same exact advice to others. The pandemic and other crises were unexpected events that we worked through to fix. I feel like this is either intentional self-destruction or incompetence that is derailing one of the best economies we ever had, and would prefer to wait on the sidelines for a bit (I'm trying to avoid politics by saying that, and talking about the policies that have been implemented, so hopefully that isn't going too far). I will be looking to start getting back in (I want to be fully invested long-term) either as I start feeling better or I feel companies become a better value -- I know I might miss a short-term bounce back, and am hoping I don't cost myself too much. Right now the peace of mind is worth it for me, and I'm going to be researching/looking for good opportunities to start buying back in.

Some more advice for what it’s worth. Don’t compound things by getting into two or 3X leverage bar funds do your research and I’m sure you can find some safe stocks to get back into. Personally, I’m 7% on the honest stock I purchased earlier. Their balance sheet is amazing. At some point these companies with cash are going to start scooping up shares to increase their earnings per share.

 

[Bossman]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

Agreed. People still have jobs / money.
"You only lose if you sell" ... is what I continue to tell myself.
Maybe you will be able to time this and come out ahead ... but I've found that's not always easy to do.
Fear and emotion, aka "sentiment", exaggerates downward swings. I'm hoping this is the case now.
Smart investors will say to buy when others are selling ... and vice versa.

 

[Orange&Blue]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

i was in France 3 weeks ago. stopped by a MCD to see what was different. they were empty and when i talked to the employees they said people were no longer eating there

 

[Desert_Power]

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.

I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.

Cross border traffic is down double digits and flights more than that.

If I was a US producer of a discretionary product that relied on exports I would be very worried.

I work in hospitality with a heavy Canadian contingent (Disney, and we work with several Canadian travel influencers).

We have seen a huge drop in our Canadian bookings and a lot of cancelations of future trips as well.

Our last marketing campaign with our top Canadian influencer returned about 40% of the bookings we've gotten in our previous lowest campaign with her.

 

[kevzilla]

We did the math together, and the old man is 55% cash. He is also 88 years old and has multiple myeloma, and the amount of cash that lets him sleep at night is the right amount. The fact that it does just run into seven figures is irrelevant, and will not come up at their 67th anniversary dinner on Monday.

Where's dinner?

A secure undisclosed location that's a very short drive for them

 

[Desert_Power]

This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.

I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.

Cross border traffic is down double digits and flights more than that.

If I was a US producer of a discretionary product that relied on exports I would be very worried.

I work in hospitality with a heavy Canadian contingent (Disney, and we work with several Canadian travel influencers).

We have seen a huge drop in our Canadian bookings and a lot of cancelations of future trips as well.

Our last marketing campaign with our top Canadian influencer returned about 40% of the bookings we've gotten in our previous lowest campaign with her.

How is traffic at Disney overall? We're doing a big family trip down at the end of the month. Can't wait.

Going a bunch from SC as a kid, I remember just how crazy the traffic is on i95 from Ontario.

 

[Desert_Power]

Any thought to the fact that the Fed is about to refinance about 2 trillion of debt ...
Would it be beneficial if interest rates were down? Does a crashing market help them with this in any way?

Rates have not moved a whole lot.

It's been a decent move, but the market is still caught between whether inflation or recession is the most imminent risk.

Don't underestimate the chances of the daily double.

You could really do a Larry Summers "33% chance" on these. Hence why rates aren't sure where to move.

 

[lakerstan]

This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.

I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.

Cross border traffic is down double digits and flights more than that.

If I was a US producer of a discretionary product that relied on exports I would be very worried.

I work in hospitality with a heavy Canadian contingent (Disney, and we work with several Canadian travel influencers).

We have seen a huge drop in our Canadian bookings and a lot of cancelations of future trips as well.

Our last marketing campaign with our top Canadian influencer returned about 40% of the bookings we've gotten in our previous lowest campaign with her.

I’m in Vegas. Hotels seeing the same.

 

[NajehHejan]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

Thanks for your concern and in the past I would have given the same exact advice to others. The pandemic and other crises were unexpected events that we worked through to fix. I feel like this is either intentional self-destruction or incompetence that is derailing one of the best economies we ever had, and would prefer to wait on the sidelines for a bit (I'm trying to avoid politics by saying that, and talking about the policies that have been implemented, so hopefully that isn't going too far). I will be looking to start getting back in (I want to be fully invested long-term) either as I start feeling better or I feel companies become a better value -- I know I might miss a short-term bounce back, and am hoping I don't cost myself too much. Right now the peace of mind is worth it for me, and I'm going to be researching/looking for good opportunities to start buying back in.

Some more advice for what it’s worth. Don’t compound things by getting into two or 3X leverage bar funds do your research and I’m sure you can find some safe stocks to get back into. Personally, I’m 7% on the honest stock I purchased earlier. Their balance sheet is amazing. At some point these companies with cash are going to start scooping up shares to increase their earnings per share.

Ticker for Honest stock? Are you referring to HNST?

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.

I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.

Cross border traffic is down double digits and flights more than that.

If I was a US producer of a discretionary product that relied on exports I would be very worried.

I work in hospitality with a heavy Canadian contingent (Disney, and we work with several Canadian travel influencers).

We have seen a huge drop in our Canadian bookings and a lot of cancelations of future trips as well.

Our last marketing campaign with our top Canadian influencer returned about 40% of the bookings we've gotten in our previous lowest campaign with her.

I’m in Vegas. Hotels seeing the same.

I just got back from Vegas, and it seemed really dead for sweet 16 weekend.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.

I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.

Cross border traffic is down double digits and flights more than that.

If I was a US producer of a discretionary product that relied on exports I would be very worried.

I work in hospitality with a heavy Canadian contingent (Disney, and we work with several Canadian travel influencers).

We have seen a huge drop in our Canadian bookings and a lot of cancelations of future trips as well.

Our last marketing campaign with our top Canadian influencer returned about 40% of the bookings we've gotten in our previous lowest campaign with her.

I’m in Vegas. Hotels seeing the same.

I'm in a Vegas pool right now!

On a family trip, but we leave first thing in the morning to make sure we get back to salt lake tomorrow in time to watch the Gators game.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

I wouldn't personally go all cash either but 100% disagree this pales in comparison to pandemic

This one is self-inflicted and absolutely could cause lasting impact.

 

[BassNBrew]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

Thanks for your concern and in the past I would have given the same exact advice to others. The pandemic and other crises were unexpected events that we worked through to fix. I feel like this is either intentional self-destruction or incompetence that is derailing one of the best economies we ever had, and would prefer to wait on the sidelines for a bit (I'm trying to avoid politics by saying that, and talking about the policies that have been implemented, so hopefully that isn't going too far). I will be looking to start getting back in (I want to be fully invested long-term) either as I start feeling better or I feel companies become a better value -- I know I might miss a short-term bounce back, and am hoping I don't cost myself too much. Right now the peace of mind is worth it for me, and I'm going to be researching/looking for good opportunities to start buying back in.

Some more advice for what it’s worth. Don’t compound things by getting into two or 3X leverage bar funds do your research and I’m sure you can find some safe stocks to get back into. Personally, I’m 7% on the honest stock I purchased earlier. Their balance sheet is amazing. At some point these companies with cash are going to start scooping up shares to increase their earnings per share.

Ticker for Honest stock? Are you referring to HNST?

Yes. Was down close to 30% over the two days. Not really sure why. I doubled my position at $3.95 and again at $3.92.

Just turned profitable and balance sheet is $75 million cash and zero debt. Thats 20% of the market cap.

 

[Capella]

Love that they took a little more at the end, just for funsies

 

[General Malaise]

There's going to be a lot of hungover people come Monday.

 

[Wooderson]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

I wouldn't personally go all cash either but 100% disagree this pales in comparison to pandemic

This one is self-inflicted and absolutely could cause lasting impact.

I don’t know It’s self inflicted so it’s also self fixable.

Pandemic there were no immediate answers.

Bought during the pandemic because I thought why the hell not it’s all going to crap anyways.

Buying now because what caused it can fix it.

J

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.

I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.

Cross border traffic is down double digits and flights more than that.

If I was a US producer of a discretionary product that relied on exports I would be very worried.

I work in hospitality with a heavy Canadian contingent (Disney, and we work with several Canadian travel influencers).

We have seen a huge drop in our Canadian bookings and a lot of cancelations of future trips as well.

Our last marketing campaign with our top Canadian influencer returned about 40% of the bookings we've gotten in our previous lowest campaign with her.

How is traffic at Disney overall? We're doing a big family trip down at the end of the month. Can't wait.

Going a bunch from SC as a kid, I remember just how crazy the traffic is on i95 from Ontario.

Still going to be crowded depending on the season, end of April and May is usually a little quieter because it's between spring break and Summer break so most parents don't want to take the kids out of school right before and after school breaks. Early May (so you're right in that area) is our personal favorite time to go as a family because I think it's the best combo of weather and crowds. IE crowds are even smaller in September but the heat then is unbearable.

But year over year, for the whole market, we haven't seen a ton of change except maybe not as much of a boost as we were hoping for from the new Universal park.

Our company in particular is more effected than most in the area I think because we are so heavy in the Canadian traveler niche.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

I wouldn't personally go all cash either but 100% disagree this pales in comparison to pandemic

This one is self-inflicted and absolutely could cause lasting impact.

Pandemic there were no immediate answers.

But everyone was looking for a solution then....

I agree this is also self-fixable. But it's going to take a lot of different parties to come together to agreements to fix it and prevent irreparable damage. It's going to come down to personal opinion whether you believe that'll happen or not...

 

[Wooderson]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

I wouldn't personally go all cash either but 100% disagree this pales in comparison to pandemic

This one is self-inflicted and absolutely could cause lasting impact.

Pandemic there were no immediate answers.

But everyone was looking for a solution then....

I agree this is also self-fixable. But it's going to take a lot of different parties to come together to agreements to fix it and prevent irreparable damage. It's going to come down to personal opinion whether you believe that'll happen or not...

I see your point. I just believe everyone likes to make money. So that will be the driving force to fix it.

 

[McBokonon]

I just believe everyone likes to make money.

I agree, but not everyone makes money the same way. Some make it by fostering a healthy, collaborative economic environment where companies thrive and investors in those companies profit. Some might make money by, for a random example, breaking the economy, trying to force rates lower, and then jumping in and gobbling up distressed assets while leveraging themselves to the gills.

 

[Atomic Punk]

This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.

I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.

Cross border traffic is down double digits and flights more than that.

If I was a US producer of a discretionary product that relied on exports I would be very worried.

I work in hospitality with a heavy Canadian contingent (Disney, and we work with several Canadian travel influencers).

We have seen a huge drop in our Canadian bookings and a lot of cancelations of future trips as well.

Our last marketing campaign with our top Canadian influencer returned about 40% of the bookings we've gotten in our previous lowest campaign with her.

I’m surprised some people are making light of the dynamics and think it cannot be real but I’m telling you there is a massive anti American vibe in Canada and I expect it is trending throughout the world. And you know how polite we are up here, the comments are generally something along the lines of, “well everyone knows we love our neighbours but we’re just not going to put up with this”. Anecdotally I know of so many that have cancelled trips or changed plans to stay in Canada or go elsewhere for a holiday. I have personally cancelled two of my concert/football trips this year and heading east to Quebec and Bluesfest in Ottawa instead.

Trying to stay on topic, this will resonate throughout the market and we may not feel this or see the trend for another month or three. I think we are in for a rough couple of months that requires a measured approach.

 

[GreenNGold]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

I wouldn't personally go all cash either but 100% disagree this pales in comparison to pandemic

This one is self-inflicted and absolutely could cause lasting impact.

Pandemic there were no immediate answers.

But everyone was looking for a solution then....

I agree this is also self-fixable. But it's going to take a lot of different parties to come together to agreements to fix it and prevent irreparable damage. It's going to come down to personal opinion whether you believe that'll happen or not...

I think we would need to see a major policy reversal, and public apologies to multiple countries to start fixing this, something I don't think will be happening anytime soon. Even if that happened, there are people in other countries that will continue boycotting U.S. goods, it is not all fixable, some of the damage is already irreversible.

 

[ghostguy123]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

I wouldn't personally go all cash either but 100% disagree this pales in comparison to pandemic

This one is self-inflicted and absolutely could cause lasting impact.

Pandemic there were no immediate answers.

But everyone was looking for a solution then....

I agree this is also self-fixable. But it's going to take a lot of different parties to come together to agreements to fix it and prevent irreparable damage. It's going to come down to personal opinion whether you believe that'll happen or not...

I think we would need to see a major policy reversal, and public apologies to multiple countries to start fixing this, something I don't think will be happening anytime soon. Even if that happened, there are people in other countries that will continue boycotting U.S. goods, it is not all fixable, some of the damage is already irreversible.

People in the US are boycotting some US goods.
Yeah this doesn't look great.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

I just believe everyone likes to make money.

I agree, but not everyone makes money the same way. Some make it by fostering a healthy, collaborative economic environment where companies thrive and investors in those companies profit. Some might make money by, for a random example, breaking the economy, trying to force rates lower, and then jumping in and gobbling up distressed assets while leveraging themselves to the gills.

 

[rustycolts]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

You don't lose if you don't sell. I haven't bought in awhile, but I'm going to take advantage of the red light special.

 

[Wooderson]

This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.

I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.

Cross border traffic is down double digits and flights more than that.

If I was a US producer of a discretionary product that relied on exports I would be very worried.

I work in hospitality with a heavy Canadian contingent (Disney, and we work with several Canadian travel influencers).

We have seen a huge drop in our Canadian bookings and a lot of cancelations of future trips as well.

Our last marketing campaign with our top Canadian influencer returned about 40% of the bookings we've gotten in our previous lowest campaign with her.

I’m surprised some people are making light of the dynamics and think it cannot be real but I’m telling you there is a massive anti American vibe in Canada and I expect it is trending throughout the world. And you know how polite we are up here, the comments are generally something along the lines of, “well everyone knows we love our neighbours but we’re just not going to put up with this”. Anecdotally I know of so many that have cancelled trips or changed plans to stay in Canada or go elsewhere for a holiday. I have personally cancelled two of my concert/football trips this year and heading east to Quebec and Bluesfest in Ottawa instead.

Trying to stay on topic, this will resonate throughout the market and we may not feel this or see the trend for another month or three. I think we are in for a rough couple of months that requires a measured approach.

Sitting across from a family from Canada right now. My family is out at a brewery. They were laughing and having a great time. All decked out in Winnipeg Jets gear.

 

[culdeus]

I wonder what sort of liquidity issues the big 401k etfs have.

 

[Capella]

Somebody up thread mentioned today what if he just walks all this back Sunday night after a string of billionaires yell at him all weekend and that’s in play right? I can’t see this lasting long term.

 

[ghostguy123]

Somebody up thread mentioned today what if he just walks all this back Sunday night after a string of billionaires yell at him all weekend and that’s in play right? I can’t see this lasting long term.

Chances are awfully low. He can be a pretty stubborn fella.
I guess the brightest outlook for all this would be to negotiate with every country he placed a tariff on in hopes they lower their tariffs on us a little from where they were before this started.
That only puts us in a little bit better position than we were though.
The gloomier outlook is a lot more gloomier.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.

Get back in before you permanently damage your retirement.

This is bad but it pails in comparison to a pandemic.

Disagree. It SHOULD pale in comparison to a pandemic, but there’s no Fed bazooka coming to bail us out this time, at least not for another 1,000 SPX points minimum.

They can’t roll this back easily without losing major face. So they won’t.

 

[Orange&Blue]

There's going to be a lot of hungover people come Monday.

how about now?

 

[General Malaise]

Somebody up thread mentioned today what if he just walks all this back Sunday night after a string of billionaires yell at him all weekend and that’s in play right? I can’t see this lasting long term.

It's more likely a veto proof majority of Congress just rewrites it. They all own stonks too and hate being not rich.

Yes, but now where will they get the money to buy spines?

Once the Fed lowers rates, they'll borrow the money to buy one.

And this is what it's all about, folks. Getting the Fed to drop rates to borrow cheap money to refinance debt and buy stocks that got wiped out over tariff tantrum.

Neat.

Don't @ me Schmeabs.

 

[General Malaise]

There's going to be a lot of hungover people come Monday.

how about now?

Hoping I drink so much tonight I don't wake up tomorrow. A man can dream.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

Wow, there are like 5 pages to catch up on. Another time.

I did read enough this week to see a lot of buyers in here. That's not bad and this thread has clearly evolved into more and more savvy investors over the years. But that pandemic really is not that far in the rearview mirror and I get the vibe of hey, we got another big sale here, not gonna miss this one! And not just here, everywhere. And there are stats to prove as much.

In the long-run, yep, it's a good idea and you'll be fine down the road. But I would be careful how to go about it is all I'm saying.

The big money left the last couple months and boy were they right. I saw some charts today showing it's retail / the little guys that are jumping back in, not the big boys. Most institutions are on the sidelines, still. Even the last couple huge down days, you didn't see any buying into the close after the huge losses.

I'm not a fan of this dynamic, overall. And much prefer a contrarian take on the retail side.