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Problem is, lowering the rates don't do much of anything under the current circumstances. Rates are a way to get people spending more or slowing them down. That in turn impacts the amount of money in the economy. They don't address uncertainty/predictability/confidence. All those things are what is driving our current reactions not the amount of money in the economy. I guess you can make the argument that someone with incredibly narrow tunnel vision would key on this one particular indicator and interpret it as "confidence" in the economy thus triggering them to spend again, but that number can't be a large enough number to matter and its certainly not going to be the people educated in economics/finance.
This is where I'm at....not trying to get political, but it's hard not to discuss the situation without at least trying to gather what's happening at the top level.
In short, these moves are being made to get Powell to lower rates sooner than the Fed planned. True, not true, I don't know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense in here.
Problem is, lowering the rates don't do much of anything under the current circumstances. Rates are a way to get people spending more or slowing them down. That in turn impacts the amount of money in the economy. They don't address uncertainty/predictability/confidence. All those things are what is driving our current reactions not the amount of money in the economy. I guess you can make the argument that someone with incredibly narrow tunnel vision would key on this one particular indicator and interpret it as "confidence" in the economy thus triggering them to spend again, but that number can't be a large enough number to matter and its certainly not going to be the people educated in economics/finance.
This is where I'm at....not trying to get political, but it's hard not to discuss the situation without at least trying to gather what's happening at the top level.
In short, these moves are being made to get Powell to lower rates sooner than the Fed planned. True, not true, I don't know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense in here.
I stumbled across an interesting thesis on a pretty much random blog a few days ago. Scott Bessent and Stephen Miran are both on record as being worried about de-industrialization, which is of course a policy right in Trump's wheelhouse. The argument is that Trump is basically trying to overturn the Bretton Woods system of free trade to replace it with "balanced trade". He will try to do this with tariffs under the assumption that due to the global demand for dollars the exporting countries will have no choice but to knuckle under to access the US market. While it's probably mainly aimed at China, the breadth is to try to prevent end runs around the tariffs via relabeling of country of origin. The same place argued that long term Trump actually wants a weaker dollar to help US exports be more competitive. That's the gist anyway from what I can remember. To be clear, my post is not an endorsement of these ideas, but I thought it was at least interesting and not something I'd really come across before.Problem is, lowering the rates don't do much of anything under the current circumstances. Rates are a way to get people spending more or slowing them down. That in turn impacts the amount of money in the economy. They don't address uncertainty/predictability/confidence. All those things are what is driving our current reactions not the amount of money in the economy. I guess you can make the argument that someone with incredibly narrow tunnel vision would key on this one particular indicator and interpret it as "confidence" in the economy thus triggering them to spend again, but that number can't be a large enough number to matter and its certainly not going to be the people educated in economics/finance.
This is where I'm at....not trying to get political, but it's hard not to discuss the situation without at least trying to gather what's happening at the top level.
In short, these moves are being made to get Powell to lower rates sooner than the Fed planned. True, not true, I don't know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense in here.
Probably all those other message boards out there that you tell us exist when this one isn't the right one for us.
I kid, I kid!
Let's say that this is what "Trump" is thinking and planning. That's going to take several administrations staying the course AND a ton of middle class punishment to achieve. Pragmatism usually wins over idealism when control of the sticks is a revolving door.I stumbled across an interesting thesis on a pretty much random blog a few days ago. Scott Bessent and Stephen Miran are both on record as being worried about de-industrialization, which is of course a policy right in Trump's wheelhouse. The argument is that Trump is basically trying to overturn the Bretton Woods system of free trade to replace it with "balanced trade". He will try to do this with tariffs under the assumption that due to the global demand for dollars the exporting countries will have no choice but to knuckle under to access the US market. While it's probably mainly aimed at China, the breadth is to try to prevent end runs around the tariffs via relabeling of country of origin. The same place argued that long term Trump actually wants a weaker dollar to help US exports be more competitive. That's the gist anyway from what I can remember. To be clear, my post is not an endorsement of these ideas, but I thought it was at least interesting and not something I'd really come across before.Problem is, lowering the rates don't do much of anything under the current circumstances. Rates are a way to get people spending more or slowing them down. That in turn impacts the amount of money in the economy. They don't address uncertainty/predictability/confidence. All those things are what is driving our current reactions not the amount of money in the economy. I guess you can make the argument that someone with incredibly narrow tunnel vision would key on this one particular indicator and interpret it as "confidence" in the economy thus triggering them to spend again, but that number can't be a large enough number to matter and its certainly not going to be the people educated in economics/finance.
This is where I'm at....not trying to get political, but it's hard not to discuss the situation without at least trying to gather what's happening at the top level.
In short, these moves are being made to get Powell to lower rates sooner than the Fed planned. True, not true, I don't know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense in here.
The appropriate response to this will get me another TO because we aren't allowed to talk about those realities here. To your first part, yes people would be allowed to refinance things. But think about what's happened in the last few years. We had interest rates in the high 2s low 3s just a few years ago. MOST refinanced then. We aren't getting to those levels in a stagflation scenario. Those wanting a refinance now want it most likely because they ran up a debt while interest rates were high because of inflation. They ran up the debt because they couldn't come up with the funds to keep up with inflation. You lower the rates, inflation is likely going to accelerate again and it's going to escalate quicker with the higher prices on goods. This doesn't even include the scenarios where companies just gouge people and claim either tariffs or inflation as the reason. All were doing in the short term is increasing the wealth gap.Problem is, lowering the rates don't do much of anything under the current circumstances. Rates are a way to get people spending more or slowing them down. That in turn impacts the amount of money in the economy. They don't address uncertainty/predictability/confidence. All those things are what is driving our current reactions not the amount of money in the economy. I guess you can make the argument that someone with incredibly narrow tunnel vision would key on this one particular indicator and interpret it as "confidence" in the economy thus triggering them to spend again, but that number can't be a large enough number to matter and its certainly not going to be the people educated in economics/finance.
This is where I'm at....not trying to get political, but it's hard not to discuss the situation without at least trying to gather what's happening at the top level.
In short, these moves are being made to get Powell to lower rates sooner than the Fed planned. True, not true, I don't know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense in here.
But it would allow people to refinance debt obligations and save money as well as provide cheaper leverage to buy, right?
Look, I'm not trying to be John Maynard Kaynes over here but there is a very loud clamor right now to drop the Fed rate. It's in the article I posted. It's not a singular source either.
Get your 6's, maybe even 5's, limits set.
I've never heard of this....how does this work?
Tesla is now out of mag7, will answer yours.
I don’t time bottoms. Ever. I see some extremely cheap high quality companies way off all time highs.
I don’t own it and have zero desire to and have never recommended it…..the valuation is ridiculous.
The appropriate response to this will get me another TO because we aren't allowed to talk about those realities here. To your first part, yes people would be allowed to refinance things. But think about what's happened in the last few years. We had interest rates in the high 2s low 3s just a few years ago. MOST refinanced then. We aren't getting to those levels in a stagflation scenario. Those wanting a refinance now want it most likely because they ran up a debt while interest rates were high because of inflation. They ran up the debt because they couldn't come up with the funds to keep up with inflation. You lower the rates, inflation is likely going to accelerate again and it's going to escalate quicker with the higher prices on goods. This doesn't even include the scenarios where companies just gouge people and claim either tariffs or inflation as the reason. All were doing in the short term is increasing the wealth gap.Problem is, lowering the rates don't do much of anything under the current circumstances. Rates are a way to get people spending more or slowing them down. That in turn impacts the amount of money in the economy. They don't address uncertainty/predictability/confidence. All those things are what is driving our current reactions not the amount of money in the economy. I guess you can make the argument that someone with incredibly narrow tunnel vision would key on this one particular indicator and interpret it as "confidence" in the economy thus triggering them to spend again, but that number can't be a large enough number to matter and its certainly not going to be the people educated in economics/finance.
This is where I'm at....not trying to get political, but it's hard not to discuss the situation without at least trying to gather what's happening at the top level.
In short, these moves are being made to get Powell to lower rates sooner than the Fed planned. True, not true, I don't know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense in here.
But it would allow people to refinance debt obligations and save money as well as provide cheaper leverage to buy, right?
Look, I'm not trying to be John Maynard Kaynes over here but there is a very loud clamor right now to drop the Fed rate. It's in the article I posted. It's not a singular source either.
SOXS FTW
Oh I know……but again…..I think the selling is getting exhausted.
Just wanted to totally agree with you on this point. The "flation" is self evident. Tariffs, by very definition, lead to higher prices. I think it's a short jump to higher prices give way to lower demand. Lower demand and higher taxes by way of tariffs lead to lower profits. Lower profits give way to layoffs. Higher unemployment etc etc.The appropriate response to this will get me another TO because we aren't allowed to talk about those realities here. To your first part, yes people would be allowed to refinance things. But think about what's happened in the last few years. We had interest rates in the high 2s low 3s just a few years ago. MOST refinanced then. We aren't getting to those levels in a stagflation scenario. Those wanting a refinance now want it most likely because they ran up a debt while interest rates were high because of inflation. They ran up the debt because they couldn't come up with the funds to keep up with inflation. You lower the rates, inflation is likely going to accelerate again and it's going to escalate quicker with the higher prices on goods. This doesn't even include the scenarios where companies just gouge people and claim either tariffs or inflation as the reason. All were doing in the short term is increasing the wealth gap.Problem is, lowering the rates don't do much of anything under the current circumstances. Rates are a way to get people spending more or slowing them down. That in turn impacts the amount of money in the economy. They don't address uncertainty/predictability/confidence. All those things are what is driving our current reactions not the amount of money in the economy. I guess you can make the argument that someone with incredibly narrow tunnel vision would key on this one particular indicator and interpret it as "confidence" in the economy thus triggering them to spend again, but that number can't be a large enough number to matter and its certainly not going to be the people educated in economics/finance.
This is where I'm at....not trying to get political, but it's hard not to discuss the situation without at least trying to gather what's happening at the top level.
In short, these moves are being made to get Powell to lower rates sooner than the Fed planned. True, not true, I don't know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense in here.
But it would allow people to refinance debt obligations and save money as well as provide cheaper leverage to buy, right?
Look, I'm not trying to be John Maynard Kaynes over here but there is a very loud clamor right now to drop the Fed rate. It's in the article I posted. It's not a singular source either.
The first person in this thread to use the word "Stagflation" in here is me.
For the most part I agree. Thanks for the clarification. When you said that the call for reduction of rates was coming from many different places, I took it at face value. It's not a bunch of places. It's a bunch of people in one place. Fortunately. I think Powell understand this and also understands his adjusting of rates isn't going to do much for the economy under these circumstances. Of course Trump will just fire him and put a yes man in office and then we're really going to be in the ****ter.The appropriate response to this will get me another TO because we aren't allowed to talk about those realities here. To your first part, yes people would be allowed to refinance things. But think about what's happened in the last few years. We had interest rates in the high 2s low 3s just a few years ago. MOST refinanced then. We aren't getting to those levels in a stagflation scenario. Those wanting a refinance now want it most likely because they ran up a debt while interest rates were high because of inflation. They ran up the debt because they couldn't come up with the funds to keep up with inflation. You lower the rates, inflation is likely going to accelerate again and it's going to escalate quicker with the higher prices on goods. This doesn't even include the scenarios where companies just gouge people and claim either tariffs or inflation as the reason. All were doing in the short term is increasing the wealth gap.Problem is, lowering the rates don't do much of anything under the current circumstances. Rates are a way to get people spending more or slowing them down. That in turn impacts the amount of money in the economy. They don't address uncertainty/predictability/confidence. All those things are what is driving our current reactions not the amount of money in the economy. I guess you can make the argument that someone with incredibly narrow tunnel vision would key on this one particular indicator and interpret it as "confidence" in the economy thus triggering them to spend again, but that number can't be a large enough number to matter and its certainly not going to be the people educated in economics/finance.
This is where I'm at....not trying to get political, but it's hard not to discuss the situation without at least trying to gather what's happening at the top level.
In short, these moves are being made to get Powell to lower rates sooner than the Fed planned. True, not true, I don't know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense in here.
But it would allow people to refinance debt obligations and save money as well as provide cheaper leverage to buy, right?
Look, I'm not trying to be John Maynard Kaynes over here but there is a very loud clamor right now to drop the Fed rate. It's in the article I posted. It's not a singular source either.
The first person in this thread to use the word "Stagflation" in here is me.
As I've said in here now multiple times, the people forcing policy want cheaper interest rates for 2 reasons:
1) inflation to them is a rounding error. You think the Super rich care about gas prices or eggs? Cmon.
But guess what? They control policy now so....
2) they can refinance debt on skyscrapers and resorts. This isn't about mortgages. This is about guys with debts in the billions.
3) Wealth gap! Yes! They want it wider! You disagree?
Wasn't 0 oil 5 years ago?
This isn't evidence of what I asked for
Oil touched -$40 5 years ago. (No, not a typo, it went negative for a short time.)
I tried trading USO for awhile to do it, it didn't work well
It has quotes of several foreign country leaders saying they are going to talk or visit with the Administration soon. Isn't that what you asked for?
I couldn't agree more on all three points. That's all I'll say...The appropriate response to this will get me another TO because we aren't allowed to talk about those realities here. To your first part, yes people would be allowed to refinance things. But think about what's happened in the last few years. We had interest rates in the high 2s low 3s just a few years ago. MOST refinanced then. We aren't getting to those levels in a stagflation scenario. Those wanting a refinance now want it most likely because they ran up a debt while interest rates were high because of inflation. They ran up the debt because they couldn't come up with the funds to keep up with inflation. You lower the rates, inflation is likely going to accelerate again and it's going to escalate quicker with the higher prices on goods. This doesn't even include the scenarios where companies just gouge people and claim either tariffs or inflation as the reason. All were doing in the short term is increasing the wealth gap.Problem is, lowering the rates don't do much of anything under the current circumstances. Rates are a way to get people spending more or slowing them down. That in turn impacts the amount of money in the economy. They don't address uncertainty/predictability/confidence. All those things are what is driving our current reactions not the amount of money in the economy. I guess you can make the argument that someone with incredibly narrow tunnel vision would key on this one particular indicator and interpret it as "confidence" in the economy thus triggering them to spend again, but that number can't be a large enough number to matter and its certainly not going to be the people educated in economics/finance.
This is where I'm at....not trying to get political, but it's hard not to discuss the situation without at least trying to gather what's happening at the top level.
In short, these moves are being made to get Powell to lower rates sooner than the Fed planned. True, not true, I don't know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense in here.
But it would allow people to refinance debt obligations and save money as well as provide cheaper leverage to buy, right?
Look, I'm not trying to be John Maynard Kaynes over here but there is a very loud clamor right now to drop the Fed rate. It's in the article I posted. It's not a singular source either.
The first person in this thread to use the word "Stagflation" in here is me.
As I've said in here now multiple times, the people forcing policy want cheaper interest rates for 2 reasons:
1) inflation to them is a rounding error. You think the Super rich care about gas prices or eggs? Cmon.
But guess what? They control policy now so....
2) they can refinance debt on skyscrapers and resorts. This isn't about mortgages. This is about guys with debts in the billions.
3) Wealth gap! Yes! They want it wider! You disagree?
Can you please stop with politics - you’ve been warned so many times and you just can’t help yourself.
What on earth is wrong with his question?
I only picked one post out of many - but questioning whether the administration is telling the truth about negotiations with other Countries is already getting pushback and will lead to the usual snarky back and forths - this guy gets a lot of threads shut down because he pushes Joe’s limits.
That's not politics even a little bit and I'm kind of tired of people framing it that way. My question points at the SPECIFIC thing driving all this volatility which is the uncertainty driven by a lack of cogent plan/message. It was proven in spades yesterday on the mere mention of talks. If there is evidence that negotiations are going on, that's a HUGE deal and VERY important.
That’s not pushing limits to me, he didn’t ask it in a snarky way or call anybody a name and it’s a legit question in terms of what expected stock performance will be for the foreseeable future.
