Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

[Dr. Octopus]

Do we have any evidence, other than the admins word, that there is a bunch of negotiating going on? Serious question.

Can you please stop with politics - you’ve been warned so many times and you just can’t help yourself.

DON’T get this thread shut down by being so selfish.

What on earth is wrong with his question?

I only picked one post out of many - but questioning whether the administration is telling the truth about negotiations with other Countries is already getting pushback and will lead to the usual snarky back and forths - this guy gets a lot of threads shut down because he pushes Joe’s limits.

Just trying to keep the thread afloat. MoP’s tariff thread lasted half a day.

That’s not pushing limits to me, he didn’t ask it in a snarky way or call anybody a name and it’s a legit question in terms of what expected stock performance will be for the foreseeable future.

We’ll see.

 

[Capella]

BREAKING: China raises its retaliatory tariff on goods coming from the US to 84%, up from 34%, hours after Trump's sweeping new tariffs kicked in.
Follow AP's live updates.

 

[McBokonon]

Which side is going to raise tariffs to Infinity Squared No Takebacks first?

 

[BassNBrew]

I know this is a stock thread, but I will say that I went ahead and bought my $10k iBond for the year. Not too much I can do to protect myself against inflation, but I did what I could. Sure wish I didn't sell in early 2024 two $10k tranches that had a 0% fixed rate. My iBond pile is smaller than I would wish.

I'm probably gonna to cash out my ibonds today to move the money into the market. Can you explain what's enticing about a 3.11% return?

 

[bcat01]

Which side is going to raise tariffs to Infinity Squared No Takebacks first?

Or they will just block all imports

 

[Acrobat7]

Which side is going to raise tariffs to Infinity Squared No Takebacks first?

Or they will just block all imports

The USA? Not possible. Are you going to tell the whole population of the US that there won't be any coffe anymore?

 

[Redwes25]

Bond market is in blood bath now as well. China is probably dumping bonds. What a mess.

 

[Wildcat]

Which side is going to raise tariffs to Infinity Squared No Takebacks first?

You can’t triple stamp a double stamp.

 

[GoBirds]

Which side is going to raise tariffs to Infinity Squared No Takebacks first?

Or they will just block all imports

The USA? Not possible. Are you going to tell the whole population of the US that there won't be any coffe anymore?

Buy Monster Energy may be the play? Celsius?

 

[GoBirds]

Crazy to think that pretty much all of this was caused by one man and his idiotic policy decisions.

Good job, America.

Dude, this thread is for stock talk not your rants. Stop.

 

[Acrobat7]

Which side is going to raise tariffs to Infinity Squared No Takebacks first?

Or they will just block all imports

The USA? Not possible. Are you going to tell the whole population of the US that there won't be any coffe anymore?

Buy Monster Energy may be the play? Celsius?

Taurine, caffeine, aluminum... All imported I assume.

 

[Acrobat7]

One troubling thing I’ve read is that countries are literally calling the White House to negotiate a deal and they can’t get anyone to talk.

Vietnam offered a 0% tariff deal and was rejected

So when people say countries are going to negotiate to get a better deal, I’m not sure that’s going to happen or if the US even has a strategy for what it’s asking for in these negotiations

The EU offered a zero tariff system. The USA didn't accept.

 

[McBokonon]

Which side is going to raise tariffs to Infinity Squared No Takebacks first?

You can’t triple stamp a double stamp.

I’m rubber, you’re glue. Whatever you tariff bounces off me and sticks to you.

 

[MTskibum]

The AI bubble is going to pop soon and this current tariff stuff is going to be what pushes it over.

OpenAI Researchers Find That Even the Best AI Is "Unable To Solve the Majority" of Coding Problems

OpenAI researchers have admitted that even the most advanced AI models can't really solve the coding problems put in front of them.

futurism.com

The models took on tasks cumulatively worth hundreds of thousands of dollars on Upwork, but they were only able to fix surface-level software issues, while remaining unable to actually find bugs in larger projects or find their root causes. These shoddy and half-baked "solutions" are likely familiar to anyone who's worked with AI — which is great at spitting out confident-sounding information that often falls apart on closer inspection.

Though all three LLMs were often able to operate "far faster than a human would," the paper notes, they also failed to grasp how widespread bugs were or to understand their context, "leading to solutions that are incorrect or insufficiently comprehensive."

 

[Orange&Blue]

I know this is a stock thread, but I will say that I went ahead and bought my $10k iBond for the year. Not too much I can do to protect myself against inflation, but I did what I could. Sure wish I didn't sell in early 2024 two $10k tranches that had a 0% fixed rate. My iBond pile is smaller than I would wish.

I'm probably gonna to cash out my ibonds today to move the money into the market. Can you explain what's enticing about a 3.11% return?

it's not negative?

 

[BassNBrew]

The AI bubble is going to pop soon and this current tariff stuff is going to be what pushes it over.

OpenAI Researchers Find That Even the Best AI Is "Unable To Solve the Majority" of Coding Problems

OpenAI researchers have admitted that even the most advanced AI models can't really solve the coding problems put in front of them.

futurism.com

The models took on tasks cumulatively worth hundreds of thousands of dollars on Upwork, but they were only able to fix surface-level software issues, while remaining unable to actually find bugs in larger projects or find their root causes. These shoddy and half-baked "solutions" are likely familiar to anyone who's worked with AI — which is great at spitting out confident-sounding information that often falls apart on closer inspection.

Though all three LLMs were often able to operate "far faster than a human would," the paper notes, they also failed to grasp how widespread bugs were or to understand their context, "leading to solutions that are incorrect or insufficiently comprehensive."

Despite all my training, AI is horrible at fantasy cycling. Gonna need a lot more AMD and Nvidia chips to make something workable.

 

[BassNBrew]

I know this is a stock thread, but I will say that I went ahead and bought my $10k iBond for the year. Not too much I can do to protect myself against inflation, but I did what I could. Sure wish I didn't sell in early 2024 two $10k tranches that had a 0% fixed rate. My iBond pile is smaller than I would wish.

I'm probably gonna to cash out my ibonds today to move the money into the market. Can you explain what's enticing about a 3.11% return?

it's not negative?

It's 33% lower than most CDs.

 

[MTskibum]

The AI bubble is going to pop soon and this current tariff stuff is going to be what pushes it over.

OpenAI Researchers Find That Even the Best AI Is "Unable To Solve the Majority" of Coding Problems

OpenAI researchers have admitted that even the most advanced AI models can't really solve the coding problems put in front of them.

futurism.com

The models took on tasks cumulatively worth hundreds of thousands of dollars on Upwork, but they were only able to fix surface-level software issues, while remaining unable to actually find bugs in larger projects or find their root causes. These shoddy and half-baked "solutions" are likely familiar to anyone who's worked with AI — which is great at spitting out confident-sounding information that often falls apart on closer inspection.

Though all three LLMs were often able to operate "far faster than a human would," the paper notes, they also failed to grasp how widespread bugs were or to understand their context, "leading to solutions that are incorrect or insufficiently comprehensive."

Despite all my training, AI is horrible at fantasy cycling. Gonna need a lot more AMD and Nvidia chips to make something workable.

The problem is how good training data has to be, you can't even have mistakes at a 1 in a million level or else the models pick up on it.

There is no training data close to good enough yet.

It’s remarkably easy to inject new medical misinformation into LLMs

Changing just 0.001% of inputs to misinformation makes the AI less accurate.

arstechnica.com

While the study doesn't identify a lower bound, it does show that by the time misinformation accounts for 0.001 percent of the training data, the resulting LLM is compromised.

 

[The_Man]

One troubling thing I’ve read is that countries are literally calling the White House to negotiate a deal and they can’t get anyone to talk.

Vietnam offered a 0% tariff deal and was rejected

So when people say countries are going to negotiate to get a better deal, I’m not sure that’s going to happen or if the US even has a strategy for what it’s asking for in these negotiations

Interesting, link?

Here’s one

Trump trade guru Peter Navarro says Vietnam’s zero-tariff offer ‘means nothing’ because ‘it’s the nontariff cheating that matters’

Navarro said trading partners cheat the U.S. via methods like currency manipulation and export subsidies, but also through levying VAT.

fortune.com

But you can just google Vietnam 0% tariff and find many such stories

 

[Ilov80s]

The AI bubble is going to pop soon and this current tariff stuff is going to be what pushes it over.

OpenAI Researchers Find That Even the Best AI Is "Unable To Solve the Majority" of Coding Problems

OpenAI researchers have admitted that even the most advanced AI models can't really solve the coding problems put in front of them.

futurism.com

The models took on tasks cumulatively worth hundreds of thousands of dollars on Upwork, but they were only able to fix surface-level software issues, while remaining unable to actually find bugs in larger projects or find their root causes. These shoddy and half-baked "solutions" are likely familiar to anyone who's worked with AI — which is great at spitting out confident-sounding information that often falls apart on closer inspection.

Though all three LLMs were often able to operate "far faster than a human would," the paper notes, they also failed to grasp how widespread bugs were or to understand their context, "leading to solutions that are incorrect or insufficiently comprehensive."

My experiences with AI is like it’s having kind of a dumb but very very fast, diligent and hard working assistant but what it comes up with is still the reason why they are an assistant. It seems like the most over inflated obvious bubble since people were throwing unlimited amounts of money at anything that was a .com in the late 90s/early 00s. Oh nailclippers.com? Yeah let’s give them $50 million.

 

[Ilov80s]

The AI bubble is going to pop soon and this current tariff stuff is going to be what pushes it over.

OpenAI Researchers Find That Even the Best AI Is "Unable To Solve the Majority" of Coding Problems

OpenAI researchers have admitted that even the most advanced AI models can't really solve the coding problems put in front of them.

futurism.com

The models took on tasks cumulatively worth hundreds of thousands of dollars on Upwork, but they were only able to fix surface-level software issues, while remaining unable to actually find bugs in larger projects or find their root causes. These shoddy and half-baked "solutions" are likely familiar to anyone who's worked with AI — which is great at spitting out confident-sounding information that often falls apart on closer inspection.

Though all three LLMs were often able to operate "far faster than a human would," the paper notes, they also failed to grasp how widespread bugs were or to understand their context, "leading to solutions that are incorrect or insufficiently comprehensive."

Despite all my training, AI is horrible at fantasy cycling. Gonna need a lot more AMD and Nvidia chips to make something workable.

The problem is how good training data has to be, you can't even have mistakes at a 1 in a million level or else the models pick up on it.

There is no training data close to good enough yet.

It’s remarkably easy to inject new medical misinformation into LLMs

Changing just 0.001% of inputs to misinformation makes the AI less accurate.

arstechnica.com

While the study doesn't identify a lower bound, it does show that by the time misinformation accounts for 0.001 percent of the training data, the resulting LLM is compromised.

The other issues is for AI to work it pretty much has to be allowed to steal work from people. If your business is built on using other people’s work and not paying for it, you don’t have a business, you are running high tech criminal piracy.

 

[GoBirds]

One troubling thing I’ve read is that countries are literally calling the White House to negotiate a deal and they can’t get anyone to talk.

Vietnam offered a 0% tariff deal and was rejected

So when people say countries are going to negotiate to get a better deal, I’m not sure that’s going to happen or if the US even has a strategy for what it’s asking for in these negotiations

Interesting, link?

Here’s one

Trump trade guru Peter Navarro says Vietnam’s zero-tariff offer ‘means nothing’ because ‘it’s the nontariff cheating that matters’

Navarro said trading partners cheat the U.S. via methods like currency manipulation and export subsidies, but also through levying VAT.

fortune.com

But you can just google Vietnam 0% tariff and find many such stories

Depending on if you trust Navarro or Vietnam there are more factors in play there it sounds like. Hopefully they are working through it to a place that’s better than where we started.

 

[culdeus]

I like to ask chat gpt one of our coding interview questions.

Given a set of strings like 11/23, 3/44, 5/4 using any coding you know transform this into two columns that always display in a two digit number.

AI is decent at this in Python but most other languages I find it tries to squeeze python syntax into it.

 

[rockaction]

One troubling thing I’ve read is that countries are literally calling the White House to negotiate a deal and they can’t get anyone to talk.

Vietnam offered a 0% tariff deal and was rejected

So when people say countries are going to negotiate to get a better deal, I’m not sure that’s going to happen or if the US even has a strategy for what it’s asking for in these negotiations

Have you heard that AEI, a DC think tank that is conservative, has pointed out that they got the math and what to put a tariff on incorrect? It’s bad. Google “AEI, tariffs.” You’ll find it. They’re slapping tariffs on the retail value and not the wholesale value of the good for sale.

 

[MTskibum]

The AI bubble is going to pop soon and this current tariff stuff is going to be what pushes it over.

OpenAI Researchers Find That Even the Best AI Is "Unable To Solve the Majority" of Coding Problems

OpenAI researchers have admitted that even the most advanced AI models can't really solve the coding problems put in front of them.

futurism.com

The models took on tasks cumulatively worth hundreds of thousands of dollars on Upwork, but they were only able to fix surface-level software issues, while remaining unable to actually find bugs in larger projects or find their root causes. These shoddy and half-baked "solutions" are likely familiar to anyone who's worked with AI — which is great at spitting out confident-sounding information that often falls apart on closer inspection.

Though all three LLMs were often able to operate "far faster than a human would," the paper notes, they also failed to grasp how widespread bugs were or to understand their context, "leading to solutions that are incorrect or insufficiently comprehensive."

Despite all my training, AI is horrible at fantasy cycling. Gonna need a lot more AMD and Nvidia chips to make something workable.

The problem is how good training data has to be, you can't even have mistakes at a 1 in a million level or else the models pick up on it.

There is no training data close to good enough yet.

It’s remarkably easy to inject new medical misinformation into LLMs

Changing just 0.001% of inputs to misinformation makes the AI less accurate.

arstechnica.com

While the study doesn't identify a lower bound, it does show that by the time misinformation accounts for 0.001 percent of the training data, the resulting LLM is compromised.

The other issues is for AI to work it pretty much has to be allowed to steal work from people. If your business is built on using other people’s work and not paying for it, you don’t have a business, you are running high tech criminal piracy.

That issue has mostly been solved by courts looking the other way.

Court documents show not only did Meta torrent terabytes of pirated books to train AI models, employees wouldn't stop emailing each other about it: 'Torrenting from a corporate laptop doesn't feel right'

Court documents show not only did Meta torrent terabytes of pirated books to train AI models, employees wouldn't stop emailing each other about it: 'Torrenting from a corporate laptop doesn't feel right'

I wouldn't put that sort of thing in writing but I'm built different.

www.pcgamer.com

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Do we have any evidence, other than the admins word, that there is a bunch of negotiating going on? Serious question.

Can you please stop with politics - you’ve been warned so many times and you just can’t help yourself.

DON’T get this thread shut down by being so selfish.

That's not politics even a little bit and I'm kind of tired of people framing it that way. My question points at the SPECIFIC thing driving all this volatility which is the uncertainty driven by a lack of cogent plan/message. It was proven in spades yesterday on the mere mention of talks. If there is evidence that negotiations are going on, that's a HUGE deal and VERY important.

I agree

I did see this today

 

[Ilov80s]

One troubling thing I’ve read is that countries are literally calling the White House to negotiate a deal and they can’t get anyone to talk.

Vietnam offered a 0% tariff deal and was rejected

So when people say countries are going to negotiate to get a better deal, I’m not sure that’s going to happen or if the US even has a strategy for what it’s asking for in these negotiations

Have you heard that AEI, a DC think tank that is conservative, has pointed out that they got the math and what to put a tariff on incorrect? It’s bad. Google AEI, tariffs. You’ll find it. They’re slapping tariffs on the retail value and not the wholesale value of the good for sale.

The whole premise and calculation of them doesn’t make sense to me and most people with economic backgrounds hence I think another reason the markets are so shaky right now. It’s just not change and uncertainty, it’s a lack of trust in the process.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

One troubling thing I’ve read is that countries are literally calling the White House to negotiate a deal and they can’t get anyone to talk.

Vietnam offered a 0% tariff deal and was rejected

So when people say countries are going to negotiate to get a better deal, I’m not sure that’s going to happen or if the US even has a strategy for what it’s asking for in these negotiations

The EU offered a zero tariff system. The USA didn't accept.

My understanding is that it was zero tariffs on industrial goods only, so not a zero tariff across the board, FWIW.

 

[Ilov80s]

The AI bubble is going to pop soon and this current tariff stuff is going to be what pushes it over.

OpenAI Researchers Find That Even the Best AI Is "Unable To Solve the Majority" of Coding Problems

OpenAI researchers have admitted that even the most advanced AI models can't really solve the coding problems put in front of them.

futurism.com

The models took on tasks cumulatively worth hundreds of thousands of dollars on Upwork, but they were only able to fix surface-level software issues, while remaining unable to actually find bugs in larger projects or find their root causes. These shoddy and half-baked "solutions" are likely familiar to anyone who's worked with AI — which is great at spitting out confident-sounding information that often falls apart on closer inspection.

Though all three LLMs were often able to operate "far faster than a human would," the paper notes, they also failed to grasp how widespread bugs were or to understand their context, "leading to solutions that are incorrect or insufficiently comprehensive."

Despite all my training, AI is horrible at fantasy cycling. Gonna need a lot more AMD and Nvidia chips to make something workable.

The problem is how good training data has to be, you can't even have mistakes at a 1 in a million level or else the models pick up on it.

There is no training data close to good enough yet.

It’s remarkably easy to inject new medical misinformation into LLMs

Changing just 0.001% of inputs to misinformation makes the AI less accurate.

arstechnica.com

While the study doesn't identify a lower bound, it does show that by the time misinformation accounts for 0.001 percent of the training data, the resulting LLM is compromised.

The other issues is for AI to work it pretty much has to be allowed to steal work from people. If your business is built on using other people’s work and not paying for it, you don’t have a business, you are running high tech criminal piracy.

That issue has mostly been solved by courts looking the other way.

Court documents show not only did Meta torrent terabytes of pirated books to train AI models, employees wouldn't stop emailing each other about it: 'Torrenting from a corporate laptop doesn't feel right'

Court documents show not only did Meta torrent terabytes of pirated books to train AI models, employees wouldn't stop emailing each other about it: 'Torrenting from a corporate laptop doesn't feel right'

I wouldn't put that sort of thing in writing but I'm built different.

www.pcgamer.com

That’s not solved. It’s still a problem and one that at some point could come back. I know there is a lot of talk about the issue in the UK now potentially hitting the courts. Just because the law isn’t being enforced today doesn’t mean it can’t be in the future under different administration or if public sentiment changes.

 

[MTskibum]

That’s not solved. It’s still a problem and one that at some point could come back. I know there is a lot of talk about the issue in the UK now potentially hitting the courts. Just because the law isn’t being enforced today doesn’t mean it can’t be in the future under different administration or if public sentiment changes.

From a companies perspective the issue of data is solved. They will just steal the data and pay the punitive fine.

They have access to the stolen data today how are we going to stop them?

 

[Dr_Zaius]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-shares-video-claiming-111715958.html

This is where I'm at....not trying to get political, but it's hard not to discuss the situation without at least trying to gather what's happening at the top level.

In short, these moves are being made to get Powell to lower rates sooner than the Fed planned. True, not true, I don't know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense in here.

Problem is, lowering the rates don't do much of anything under the current circumstances. Rates are a way to get people spending more or slowing them down. That in turn impacts the amount of money in the economy. They don't address uncertainty/predictability/confidence. All those things are what is driving our current reactions not the amount of money in the economy. I guess you can make the argument that someone with incredibly narrow tunnel vision would key on this one particular indicator and interpret it as "confidence" in the economy thus triggering them to spend again, but that number can't be a large enough number to matter and its certainly not going to be the people educated in economics/finance.

I stumbled across an interesting thesis on a pretty much random blog a few days ago. Scott Bessent and Stephen Miran are both on record as being worried about de-industrialization, which is of course a policy right in Trump's wheelhouse. The argument is that Trump is basically trying to overturn the Bretton Woods system of free trade to replace it with "balanced trade". He will try to do this with tariffs under the assumption that due to the global demand for dollars the exporting countries will have no choice but to knuckle under to access the US market. While it's probably mainly aimed at China, the breadth is to try to prevent end runs around the tariffs via relabeling of country of origin. The same place argued that long term Trump actually wants a weaker dollar to help US exports be more competitive. That's the gist anyway from what I can remember. To be clear, my post is not an endorsement of these ideas, but I thought it was at least interesting and not something I'd really come across before.

Let's say that this is what "Trump" is thinking and planning. That's going to take several administrations staying the course AND a ton of middle class punishment to achieve. Pragmatism usually wins over idealism when control of the sticks is a revolving door.

I agree that a large change in US industrialization levels would take years, and the uncertainty of future policies is going to make many corporations dubious of it as a strategy. But whether the policy will be effective or not is somewhat orthogonal to what the administration will do because the players' mindsets factor in. And this being the stock thread, it's useful for us to try to understand the administration's goals to try to sleuth out how things will unfold in the near term.

 

[rockaction]

Bond market is in blood bath now as well. China is probably dumping bonds. What a mess.

That was what Twitter speculated but then they thought it was Japan.

Nobody knows **** about shinola right now. That’s why there official line is Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy’s mantra:

Don’t panic

 

[urbanhack]

I like to ask chat gpt one of our coding interview questions.

Given a set of strings like 11/23, 3/44, 5/4 using any coding you know transform this into two columns that always display in a two digit number.

AI is decent at this in Python but most other languages I find it tries to squeeze python syntax into it.

Anthropic/Claude is much better at writing code.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

Don’t panic

To be fair, that's rock solid advice in 99.9% of the situations one encounters. The real trick is figuring out when you're in a 0.1% situation.

 

[Ilov80s]

That’s not solved. It’s still a problem and one that at some point could come back. I know there is a lot of talk about the issue in the UK now potentially hitting the courts. Just because the law isn’t being enforced today doesn’t mean it can’t be in the future under different administration or if public sentiment changes.

From a companies perspective the issue of data is solved. They will just steal the data and pay the punitive fine.

They have access to the stolen data today how are we going to stop them?

It will be interesting to see where the Cohere lawsuit goes. Will they win? How much in damages could they get?

Now sure those companies have the approach of we will steal the data and deal with paying fines later. However the size of the fines could be significant since most AI companies haven’t figured out how to make money yet? They are entirely living on these future expectations that they haven’t delivered on and people continuing to throw money at them. What happens if the bubble bursts and people become fed up with a lack of profit?

 

[culdeus]

That’s not solved. It’s still a problem and one that at some point could come back. I know there is a lot of talk about the issue in the UK now potentially hitting the courts. Just because the law isn’t being enforced today doesn’t mean it can’t be in the future under different administration or if public sentiment changes.

From a companies perspective the issue of data is solved. They will just steal the data and pay the punitive fine.

They have access to the stolen data today how are we going to stop them?

It will be interesting to see where the Cohere lawsuit goes. Will they win? How much in damages could they get?

Now sure those companies have the approach of we will steal the data and deal with paying fines later. However the size of the fines could be significant since most AI companies haven’t figured out how to make money yet? They are entirely living on these future expectations that they haven’t delivered on and people continuing to throw money at them. What happens if the bubble bursts and people become fed up with a lack of profit?

Figure they start selling ads.

One thing about Google is they do their stupid AI thing at the top. This puts the sponsor results further down which I imagine isn't super pleasing to some.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

Now sure those companies have the approach of we will steal the data and deal with paying fines later. However the size of the fines could be significant since most AI companies haven’t figured out how to make money yet? They are entirely living on these future expectations that they haven’t delivered on and people continuing to throw money at them. What happens if the bubble bursts and people become fed up with a lack of profit?

Not sure if you saw during the SBF blowup the talk about taking infinite coin flips for double or nothing, which SBF argued you should always take if the odds were even 50.1-49.9% in your favor because then in one universe you will have infinite money. It seems there's a similar mindset to the AI rush - that if somebody wins by getting the best AI and that AI is significantly better than human cognition, they basically win the world. So if you're doing rationalist-style utility calculations it almost doesn't matter what you pay in R&D or fines because it's a near infinite payoff so it's positive ROI on average.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Do we have any evidence, other than the admins word, that there is a bunch of negotiating going on? Serious question.

Can you please stop with politics - you’ve been warned so many times and you just can’t help yourself.

DON’T get this thread shut down by being so selfish.

That's not politics even a little bit and I'm kind of tired of people framing it that way. My question points at the SPECIFIC thing driving all this volatility which is the uncertainty driven by a lack of cogent plan/message. It was proven in spades yesterday on the mere mention of talks. If there is evidence that negotiations are going on, that's a HUGE deal and VERY important.

I agree

I did see this today

Thanks!

 

[Redwes25]

Bond market is in blood bath now as well. China is probably dumping bonds. What a mess.

That was what Twitter speculated but then they thought it was Japan.

Nobody knows **** about shinola right now. That’s why there official line is Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy’s mantra:

Don’t panic

Lets see how this weeks auction of 10 years go. We will get a good sense of foreign demand which usually buys like 2/3rds of the debt at these auctions.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-shares-video-claiming-111715958.html

This is where I'm at....not trying to get political, but it's hard not to discuss the situation without at least trying to gather what's happening at the top level.

In short, these moves are being made to get Powell to lower rates sooner than the Fed planned. True, not true, I don't know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense in here.

Problem is, lowering the rates don't do much of anything under the current circumstances. Rates are a way to get people spending more or slowing them down. That in turn impacts the amount of money in the economy. They don't address uncertainty/predictability/confidence. All those things are what is driving our current reactions not the amount of money in the economy. I guess you can make the argument that someone with incredibly narrow tunnel vision would key on this one particular indicator and interpret it as "confidence" in the economy thus triggering them to spend again, but that number can't be a large enough number to matter and its certainly not going to be the people educated in economics/finance.

I stumbled across an interesting thesis on a pretty much random blog a few days ago. Scott Bessent and Stephen Miran are both on record as being worried about de-industrialization, which is of course a policy right in Trump's wheelhouse. The argument is that Trump is basically trying to overturn the Bretton Woods system of free trade to replace it with "balanced trade". He will try to do this with tariffs under the assumption that due to the global demand for dollars the exporting countries will have no choice but to knuckle under to access the US market. While it's probably mainly aimed at China, the breadth is to try to prevent end runs around the tariffs via relabeling of country of origin. The same place argued that long term Trump actually wants a weaker dollar to help US exports be more competitive. That's the gist anyway from what I can remember. To be clear, my post is not an endorsement of these ideas, but I thought it was at least interesting and not something I'd really come across before.

Let's say that this is what "Trump" is thinking and planning. That's going to take several administrations staying the course AND a ton of middle class punishment to achieve. Pragmatism usually wins over idealism when control of the sticks is a revolving door.

I agree that a large change in US industrialization levels would take years, and the uncertainty of future policies is going to make many corporations dubious of it as a strategy. But whether the policy will be effective or not is somewhat orthogonal to what the administration will do because the players' mindsets factor in. And this being the stock thread, it's useful for us to try to understand the administration's goals to try to sleuth out how things will unfold in the near term.

Yeah, I agree. The current problem is what is being stated in goals isn't being supported in actions. We are then left with uncertainty trying to figure out if either A.) They don't know how to achieve their goal or B.) what they state really isn't the goal. As long as the markets are left trying to figure that out, we're going to have problems.

 

[FBG Moderator]

A reminder - add links to posts when you say something is happening.

 

[FBG Moderator]

And keep this focused on stocks. Without the politics.

If you're unable to separate the two, then do not post.

 

[Ilov80s]

That’s not solved. It’s still a problem and one that at some point could come back. I know there is a lot of talk about the issue in the UK now potentially hitting the courts. Just because the law isn’t being enforced today doesn’t mean it can’t be in the future under different administration or if public sentiment changes.

From a companies perspective the issue of data is solved. They will just steal the data and pay the punitive fine.

They have access to the stolen data today how are we going to stop them?

It will be interesting to see where the Cohere lawsuit goes. Will they win? How much in damages could they get?

Now sure those companies have the approach of we will steal the data and deal with paying fines later. However the size of the fines could be significant since most AI companies haven’t figured out how to make money yet? They are entirely living on these future expectations that they haven’t delivered on and people continuing to throw money at them. What happens if the bubble bursts and people become fed up with a lack of profit?

Figure they start selling ads.

One thing about Google is they do their stupid AI thing at the top. This puts the sponsor results further down which I imagine isn't super pleasing to some.

Yeah I’ve found Google less and less useful. I’m interested in finding a better search engine. But how far will ads go? Can they make up the level AI is costing? Also so they stole data now. Will they be allowed to steal forever? They need to keep training and updating or their product will be too outdated. There are lawsuits in other counties, how do those turn out? I think the future is still very uncertain.

 

[Atomic Punk]

Watching the usual talking head financial advisor on a Canadian news network yesterday and they gave the usual advice to not panic, but they also suggested to diversify … not just from a commodity perspective but from a global perspective.

Does anyone maintain a list of non US stocks to buy from these other markets?

 

[beef]

Asia markets nosing down. Oil at a 4 year low. Now granted Oil was at 0 (or negative?) at that low so I'm not sure how much that figure is valid.

Wasn't 0 oil 5 years ago?

Oil touched -$40 5 years ago. (No, not a typo, it went negative for a short time.)

One thing I learned was that the ETFs that purport to follow oil suck at tracking oil prices. Like royally suck. I never invested in them - read up on that before diving in. Which is a shame, because I could have made bank and was ready to buy something there as that was obviously unsustainable.

I tried trading USO for awhile to do it, it didn't work well

Same. I wasn't playing it very long at all. Couldn't make sense of it.

 

[beef]

Which side is going to raise tariffs to Infinity Squared No Takebacks first?

Or they will just block all imports

The USA? Not possible. Are you going to tell the whole population of the US that there won't be any coffe anymore?

We still got Kona! $500/lb though.

 

[General Malaise]

A lot of people out there spiked the football a little too early this morning.

Yeah wtf, I looked at lunch and things were up. I check now and somehow we have back those gains and then some? Ugh

Did it ever make sense to be up like it was? There hasn't really been a lot of true/verified great news the last few days, but it seems like if people sense a hint of some, they really want to jump on it/back into the market and those people are probably at least partially helping it from going a lot lower than it has so far.

Shorts could have gotten spooked and took some large gains driving up stocks in the morning. Subsequent news seems to reiterate the bad news with talk turning to a trade war between two of the world's biggest economies. So, IMO, I think short covering was a big driver this morning.

I'm up 5% on the SDOW/SQQQ trades.

I'd just like to point out, once again, the company in the middle of a literal war zone... up 8.5%

10.8% with news hitting after the close that rebels are backing out of the area and operations might resume. This hit Bloomberg minutes ago - management was asked about this for the story, but declined comment. In a sea of bad news, this represents a pool noodle of hope.

Operations restarting - company announced. Meanwhile, tin prices are very high due to disruption in production in the Congo as well as the earthquake in Myanmar, which will always be Burma to me.

+22% right now.

SN

 

[MTskibum]

That’s not solved. It’s still a problem and one that at some point could come back. I know there is a lot of talk about the issue in the UK now potentially hitting the courts. Just because the law isn’t being enforced today doesn’t mean it can’t be in the future under different administration or if public sentiment changes.

From a companies perspective the issue of data is solved. They will just steal the data and pay the punitive fine.

They have access to the stolen data today how are we going to stop them?

It will be interesting to see where the Cohere lawsuit goes. Will they win? How much in damages could they get?

Now sure those companies have the approach of we will steal the data and deal with paying fines later. However the size of the fines could be significant since most AI companies haven’t figured out how to make money yet? They are entirely living on these future expectations that they haven’t delivered on and people continuing to throw money at them. What happens if the bubble bursts and people become fed up with a lack of profit?

Figure they start selling ads.

One thing about Google is they do their stupid AI thing at the top. This puts the sponsor results further down which I imagine isn't super pleasing to some.

Yeah I’ve found Google less and less useful. I’m interested in finding a better search engine. But how far will ads go? Can they make up the level AI is costing? Also so they stole data now. Will they be allowed to steal forever? They need to keep training and updating or their product will be too outdated. There are lawsuits in other counties, how do those turn out? I think the future is still very uncertain.

There are only 2 search engines, Google and bing.

Any search that is not Google, like duckduckgo uses bing's search API.

 

[pecorino]

Watching the usual talking head financial advisor on a Canadian news network yesterday and they gave the usual advice to not panic, but they also suggested to diversify … not just from a commodity perspective but from a global perspective.

Does anyone maintain a list of non US stocks to buy from these other markets?

I use the ETF "VXUS" instead of individual stocks. It's an international fund that excludes the US. Also VWO which is an emerging markets ETF.

 

[Stoneworker]

Bond market is in blood bath now as well. China is probably dumping bonds. What a mess.

That was what Twitter speculated but then they thought it was Japan.

Nobody knows **** about shinola right now. That’s why there official line is Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy’s mantra:

Don’t panic

One of the biggest lessons I learned during the Great Financial Crisis was "Don't Panic."

But the best lesson was, "If you're going to panic, make sure you're the first one."