Stock Thread (27 Viewers)

[beef]

flat 10% is easier to make the math work for

 

[Schmeabs]

Frozen except it's 10% across the board and China is around 125% now.

10% was always in place…..so yeah 99% of that chart we saw last week is frozen for 90 days

This again will go down in history as the Tarriff Tantrum.

So for those of us who got all our cash in the market, should we be taking profits? I feel like I should be raising some cash and am selling half of what I purchased yesterday.

I trimmed about 10% right now as I had put all extra cash to work this past week. I want to have some cash to work with if we retest the lows

 

[Mookie]

So hold for about 85 days, sell before the tariffs are reinstated, then buy in the crater, then repeat on the next phase of madness?

 

[NajehHejan]

Holy crap. I just sold my 7,500 SOXL (9.25 average) for 12.15

Will look to get back in sub 8

Was too scared to hold and hope for 15, 20 in the short term.

 

[Capella]

Ll

Why does this entire thing feel like a giant wealth transfer?

Because it was.

I really can’t blame inexperienced people for running for the hills and selling but it was clearly the wrong move. You gotta learn how to play at some point though if you want to be in the game. I have a few scars and a bunch of people got theirs this week. So it goes.

 

[djmich]

Why does this entire thing feel like a giant wealth transfer?

It's very powerful to be able to manipulate the market by implementing and pausing tariffs any time you wish
I wanted to bring that point up in the "Black Monday" but we barely made it to lunch time

The chances of the tariffs staying as they were initially set was as close to nil as a bet can get.

 

[Dezbelief]

BREAKING: China raises its retaliatory tariff on goods coming from the US to 84%, up from 34%, hours after Trump's sweeping new tariffs kicked in.
Follow AP's live updates.

What sectors are their imports from? Is it mostly agricultural?

Soybeans, crude petroleum and petroleum gas make up the bulk of the imports from the US into China.

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/09/china-tariffs-us-exports-economy-trump-trade-war

China was the third-largest export market in 2023 for the U.S., the report said, with oilseeds and grains as the top exports.

By state, Texas, California and Louisiana were the top U.S. exporters to China in 2023.

 

[Todem]

Frozen except it's 10% across the board and China is around 125% now.

10% was always in place…..so yeah 99% of that chart we saw last week is frozen for 90 days

This again will go down in history as the Tarriff Tantrum.

So for those of us who got all our cash in the market, should we be taking profits? I feel like I should be raising some cash and am selling half of what I purchased yesterday.

I think a great prudent strategy (for those who maybe more risk averse) is let this rally keep rolling here today and tomorrow….we very well may get back to where we were last Tuesday/Wednesday

Go 20-30% cash or fixed income or a combo of both to have dry powder for any further time bombs we may see if after the moratorium is up not enough was done.

But my instincts are telling me this part of the poker game is done. And as the next 2-3 months play out there will be massive press releases of deals that have been made with all our allies and trading partners around the world and the focus will shift to the Big Beautiful Bill and tax cuts.

“Tarriff Tantrum” in my opinion will soon be in the rear view mirror and this was this decades version of a “flash crash”

 

[Todem]

Why does this entire thing feel like a giant wealth transfer?

It's very powerful to be able to manipulate the market by implementing and pausing tariffs any time you wish
I wanted to bring that point up in the "Black Monday" but we barely made it to lunch time

The chances of the tariffs staying as they were initially set was as close to nil as a bet can get.

Done like dinner.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

China has something like $300 Billion invested into the United States, it would hurt the economy A LOT if they just picked up their toys and went home
I know it's a 2-way street and they have 1.5 billion people and they need to sell us their goods but at the same time we have just as much it feels like at risk

Bottom Line: Me happy cooler heads prevailed and I hope we are not back at this point again in 30-60-90 days, hopefully a more permanent solution can be found
Market could still decide to nose dive, still very volatile when just a couple people have that much power over the economy

 

[BassNBrew]

25% profit on VRT in a a few days. Between my last buy and the recent pop it moved to 5% of my portfolio. Trimmed to a level that Todem would feel would be more purdent.

 

[Capella]

China has something like $300 Billion invested into the United States, it would hurt the economy A LOT if they just picked up their toys and went home
I know it's a 2-way street and they have 1.5 billion people and they need to sell us their goods but at the same time we have just as much it feels like at risk

Bottom Line: Me happy cooler heads prevailed and I hope we are not back at this point again in 30-60-90 days, hopefully a more permanent solution can be found
Market could still decide to nose dive, still very volatile when just a couple people have that much power over the economy

There will be an announcement in the next 3-4 weeks that “a deal” has been struck with China and we’ll get another cheap pop off of it and hopefully a lesson will be learned here and we can all go back to making money. They’re opening epic universe near me in Orlando and I got two boys, place ain’t cheap.

 

[BassNBrew]

Why does this entire thing feel like a giant wealth transfer?

Only if you sold. Everything I read was that Wall Street was selling and the Retail investor was buying.

 

[guru_007]

China has something like $300 Billion invested into the United States, it would hurt the economy A LOT if they just picked up their toys and went home
I know it's a 2-way street and they have 1.5 billion people and they need to sell us their goods but at the same time we have just as much it feels like at risk

This number is way low.
They have over $750B in U.S. treasuries alone. Not to mention real estate and equity investments. I'd venture to guess this number is closer to $3-$4Trillion.

And while the U.S. may have China over the proverbial barrell here in regard to trade wars as we import 5x as much from them as they do from us and they need our market, there are levers in play that China could pull which would have quite a bit of pain for the U.S. and our capital markets.

 

[Ilov80s]

What a crazy ride lol

 

[Capella]

I guess it’s a bad day for companies who started building their factories here this week.

 

[ghostguy123]

So I'm guessing a bunch of countries did actually approach us about tariff deals, so many that the 90 pause is negotiation time for all of it. At least, thats what would make sense IMO.
So what is the S&P right now, down around 8% YTD (assuming this day ends around where it is now)?
As some are saying, I can see this yoyo repeating itself in 60-90 days.
Oh and yeah, I raised my 403b contribution and probably missed today's gains, lol

 

[rockaction]

There will be an announcement in the next 3-4 weeks that “a deal” has been struck with China and we’ll get another cheap pop off of it and hopefully a lesson will be learned here and we can all go back to making money. They’re opening epic universe here in Orlando and I got two boys, place ain’t cheap.

Read some really solid and convincing stuff from those in the know that this always about China and is all about China, therefore, I'm not sure this resolves itself so easily. It really sounds like we're in a soft war with China, and the yuan apparently isn't incredibly strong so there were a bunch people suggesting we were going to bury them in a trade war despite how strong they seem.

But the whole Greenland and Panama Canal nonsense is all about passageways and ruling the sea. I mean, what exactly is China doing in the Arctic and across the hemisphere concerning themselves in Panama?

I don't just think it's tariffs, although he really means it when he thinks China engages in unfair trade practices like dumping, but it's also that we're basically having a non-war fight for world dominance, and I don't expect that to end anytime remotely soon. There's pain ahead.

 

[rockaction]

So I'm guessing a bunch of countries did actually approach us about tariff deals, so many that the 90 pause is negotiation time for all of it. At least, thats what would make sense IMO.

That's the official word. He claims that 75 countries reached out to him so he was instituting a pause.

 

[fruity pebbles]

After all of that, I’m almost back to even for the year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

China has something like $300 Billion invested into the United States, it would hurt the economy A LOT if they just picked up their toys and went home
I know it's a 2-way street and they have 1.5 billion people and they need to sell us their goods but at the same time we have just as much it feels like at risk

Bottom Line: Me happy cooler heads prevailed and I hope we are not back at this point again in 30-60-90 days, hopefully a more permanent solution can be found
Market could still decide to nose dive, still very volatile when just a couple people have that much power over the economy

There will be an announcement in the next 3-4 weeks that “a deal” has been struck with China and we’ll get another cheap pop off of it and hopefully a lesson will be learned here and we can all go back to making money. They’re opening epic universe near me in Orlando and I got two boys, place ain’t cheap.

 

[Bossman]

Why does this entire thing feel like a giant wealth transfer?

Only if you sold. Everything I read was that Wall Street was selling and the Retail investor was buying.

the old timey rules of trading;
- when stocks are down, you only lose if you sell
- sell when others are buying and buy when others are selling
- not timing the market ... but time in the market
Seems to hold true for the most part

 

[Ridgeback]

Why does this entire thing feel like a giant wealth transfer?

Because it is.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Are Canadian tourists back to booking US vacations yet?

 

[fruity pebbles]

Are Canadian tourists back to booking US vacations yet?

I doubt it. I do think some damage was done as far as our relationships.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

BREAKING: China raises its retaliatory tariff on goods coming from the US to 84%, up from 34%, hours after Trump's sweeping new tariffs kicked in.
Follow AP's live updates.

What sectors are their imports from? Is it mostly agricultural?

Soybeans, crude petroleum and petroleum gas make up the bulk of the imports from the US into China.

Caribbean lobster was a big import into China prior to the tariffs their last term in office. Now, it takes about 20 minutes to catch the limit during mini season as the industry is completely wrecked in South Florida.

 

[Todem]

Why does this entire thing feel like a giant wealth transfer?

Only if you sold. Everything I read was that Wall Street was selling and the Retail investor was buying.

I started buying Friday, and did not stop till yesterdays close.

I mean we all knew this was a fire sale and that at some point this was going to turn.

The fatigue was setting in as you saw how the market was this morning before this announcement.

Let this be a good lesson to the uninitiated about sitting tight and in fact learning to run into the burning building if you have a long term outlook.

And oh…..also….don’t ever try to time a bottom. DCA in.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Interesting thread to read, courtesy of GB JerseyToughGuys

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1909939711210037256?s=46

 

[Todem]

Are Canadian tourists back to booking US vacations yet?

Judging by the airline stocks….apparently they are.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I guess it’s a bad day for companies who started building their factories here this week.

They've paused all construction for 90 days.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Are Canadian tourists back to booking US vacations yet?

I doubt it. I do think some damage was done as far as our relationships.

No doubt about this.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Why does this entire thing feel like a giant wealth transfer?

Only if you sold. Everything I read was that Wall Street was selling and the Retail investor was buying.

I started buying Friday, and did not stop till yesterdays close.

I mean we all knew this was a fire sale and that at sone point this was going to turn.

The fatigue was setting in as you saw hiw the market was this morning before this announcement.

Let this be a good lesson to the uninitiated about sitting tight and in fact learning to run into the burning building if you have a long term outlook.

And oh…..also….don’t ever try to time a bottom. DCA in.

Once it turns though you always wish you bought more. DCA is the way to go. I don’t think I’ve ever heard the business media this negative. I can see why inexperienced investors either sold or were waiting for much lower prices and came away empty handed.

 

[ChiefD]

I didn't sell at any point during these few months. Haven't looked at my 401k at all.


Maybe I can look now?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Are Canadian tourists back to booking US vacations yet?

Judging by the airline stocks….apparently they are.

That seems like a simplistic and unconvincing analysis

 

[Sparky Polastri]

China has something like $300 Billion invested into the United States, it would hurt the economy A LOT if they just picked up their toys and went home
I know it's a 2-way street and they have 1.5 billion people and they need to sell us their goods but at the same time we have just as much it feels like at risk

Bottom Line: Me happy cooler heads prevailed and I hope we are not back at this point again in 30-60-90 days, hopefully a more permanent solution can be found
Market could still decide to nose dive, still very volatile when just a couple people have that much power over the economy

There will be an announcement in the next 3-4 weeks that “a deal” has been struck with China and we’ll get another cheap pop off of it and hopefully a lesson will be learned here and we can all go back to making money. They’re opening epic universe near me in Orlando and I got two boys, place ain’t cheap.

You couldn't pay me enough to be around Universal for the next year.

 

[BassNBrew]

Why does this entire thing feel like a giant wealth transfer?

Only if you sold. Everything I read was that Wall Street was selling and the Retail investor was buying.

the old timey rules of trading;
- when stocks are down, you only lose if you sell
- sell when others are buying and buy when others are selling
- not timing the market ... but time in the market
Seems to hold true for the most part

Personally i don't care if the market retreats because I'll find more cash and add more equities (and have a Roth conversion ready). The longer stocks stay down the more it benefits me. I do feel sorry for all the folks who posted here holding 30%-100% cash waiting for a bigger drop. When you combine the pre-tariff tantrum selloff with the tariff tantrum selloff, stocks like MU fell from $110 to $65 trading at a forward PE of around 7.5. Already seemed like clearance rack pricing. Hofefully for them this is just a bounce and lows will be retested.

 

[fruity pebbles]

China has something like $300 Billion invested into the United States, it would hurt the economy A LOT if they just picked up their toys and went home
I know it's a 2-way street and they have 1.5 billion people and they need to sell us their goods but at the same time we have just as much it feels like at risk

Bottom Line: Me happy cooler heads prevailed and I hope we are not back at this point again in 30-60-90 days, hopefully a more permanent solution can be found
Market could still decide to nose dive, still very volatile when just a couple people have that much power over the economy

There will be an announcement in the next 3-4 weeks that “a deal” has been struck with China and we’ll get another cheap pop off of it and hopefully a lesson will be learned here and we can all go back to making money. They’re opening epic universe near me in Orlando and I got two boys, place ain’t cheap.

You couldn't pay me enough to be around Universal for the next year.

I was hoping everyone would hate us until the end of the year

 

[Desert_Power]

Bond market is in blood bath now as well. China is probably dumping bonds. What a mess.

That was what Twitter speculated but then they thought it was Japan.

Nobody knows **** about shinola right now. That’s why there official line is Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy’s mantra:

Don’t panic

A good piece here on what is going on in the bond market (which doesn't preclude something like China or Japan dumping): https://www.ft.com/content/6e6261e1-42bd-4cca-827e-218c111a6432

 

[Todem]

Why does this entire thing feel like a giant wealth transfer?

Only if you sold. Everything I read was that Wall Street was selling and the Retail investor was buying.

I started buying Friday, and did not stop till yesterdays close.

I mean we all knew this was a fire sale and that at sone point this was going to turn.

The fatigue was setting in as you saw hiw the market was this morning before this announcement.

Let this be a good lesson to the uninitiated about sitting tight and in fact learning to run into the burning building if you have a long term outlook.

And oh…..also….don’t ever try to time a bottom. DCA in.

Once it turns though you always wish you bought more. DCA is the way to go. I don’t think I’ve ever heard the business media this negative. I can see why inexperienced investors either sold or were waiting for much lower prices and came away empty handed.

It was incredible the negativity. They were acting extremely butt hurt.

Look I am mentally pretty exhausted. I have been on the phone (as I should be of course) for 4 straight days 9-10 hours per day just reassuring all my clients and when I tell you how much cash I was able to push in for them…..it would astound you.

Been there and done that with the vast majority of my book. We have seen:

9/11
Tech Wreck 2002
Great Recession 2008
Greek/Government Shutdown 2011
Taper Tantrum - 2013
Trump Correction - 2018
Pandemic - 2020
Fed Tightening- 2022
Tariff Tantrum - 2025

So yeah we all know the drill. Buy buy buy. Fortunes are made in bear markets.

But so many retail investors are paralyzed by fear and media fear mongering and I gotta tell you 99% of my clients were thrilled I was calling and excited to either add more cash or reallocate to a more aggressive posture because of how cheap and how fast this market went down.

So congratulations to all of us that did not panic and traded ideas in here to make money on our journey to reaching our financial goals.

 

[ghostguy123]

Wondering if we see some "profit taking" then up some more??

Also, as Todem said, buy buy buy when things tank like this.

I have to ask though, if "time in the market" is the way to go, then how would people be able to buy buy buy? It would mean all their buying money is already in the market.......

 

[Todem]

I didn't sell at any point during these few months. Haven't looked at my 401k at all.


Maybe I can look now?

Look tomorrow. It won’t price till after 4PM today.

 

[Todem]

Are Canadian tourists back to booking US vacations yet?

Judging by the airline stocks….apparently they are.

That seems like a simplistic and unconvincing analysis

It’s called sarcasim.

You must be new around here.

 

[Chemical X]

this is almost like a game show

 

[Todem]

Wondering if we see some "profit taking" then up some more??

Also, as Todem said, buy buy buy when things tank like this.

I have to ask though, if "time in the market" is the way to go, then how would people be able to buy buy buy? It would mean all their buying money is already in the market.......

I had mentioned at the beginning of this year and if someone can dig out that post that “building cash right now is very prudent”.

When you are coming off a big two year run like we had you typically will get some sharp pullbacks (this was not sharp this was a downright blunt force trauma).

So when I say build cash….that means just that. If you are able to sock away money each week or month….do so. Then when you get a week or month like we just experienced you can push it in.

Also if you have an asset allocation, be disciplined in trimming profits if your targets are + 3% or more from your target allocation on a particular position and you can either buy something that is below target or let it sit as dry poweder for pull backs….up to you.

 

[Sand]

I had to go back and remember what I did during this tantrum (though I'm not saying it's all over with). Bought UWMC, QQQ, IVV and NVDA. Not bad. Not huge money, but at least gives me the feels that closing my eyes and hitting the buy button was the correct and proper action.
Most importantly I had my kid put in his Roth contribution on Friday. IVV, QQQ, and NVDA. Now he gets to hold those for 40 years. That is a freakin' home run there.

ETA: just looked at the other kid's UTMA. Up 12.5% today. It's like bizzarro world.

 

[Capella]

2021: Tampa Bay Lightning, Coach Jon Cooper
2020: Tampa Bay Lightning, Coach Jon Cooper
2004: Tampa Bay Lightning

Hell yea

 

[HellToupee]

this is almost like a game show

What a time to be alive! We’re living through days once confined to the pages of history

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Are Canadian tourists back to booking US vacations yet?

Judging by the airline stocks….apparently they are.

That seems like a simplistic and unconvincing analysis

It’s called sarcasim.

You must be new around here.

My bad - long week

 

[Stoneworker]

But my instincts are telling me this part of the poker game is done. And as the next 2-3 months play out there will be massive press releases of deals that have been made with all our allies and trading partners around the world and the focus will shift to the Big Beautiful Bill and tax cuts.

“Tarriff Tantrum” in my opinion will soon be in the rear view mirror and this was this decades version of a “flash crash”

No way on this planet this gets anywhere close to being resolved in 2-3 months.

 

[lakerstan]

Does anyone have an opinion on PFLT? I’m not really a dividend investor, but seems I can get between 10%-11% annually and it seems historically sound (this week being the exception).

You have my attention. Talk to me about this.

Two minutes on google - private debt close-end fund focusing on mid market (which is generally companies with EBITDA from $10mm to $100mm). That is much smaller companies then you would ever see in equity markets.

https://pflt.pennantpark.com/static-files/3b3c72d6-707d-4099-97e7-0e73b08ccb25

Looks tasty.

I get the credit concern if the economy goes south into a recession, but it appears this fund carefully picks high cash flow generating businesses with decent balance sheets.

... and the verdict is? ... Buy?

I will if you will. Tailing the FFA is one of my key investment strategies and rarely goes wrong.

Yeah this was one of those, “my boss told me about it” things, and when I looked at it, their price was remarkably steady over the last 5 years and a fairly consistent 10% dividend. On the surface it seemed good, but I’m no expert for sure. I do know I was able to get a decent amount the last couple days for much cheaper than it has been in that 5 years, so hopefully it pans out. Thanks for the feedback!