ghostguy123
Footballguy
No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?
It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?
It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?
For those of you who think China will bend the knee, good luck with that. They can endure pain far longer than we can. Can you imagine the pain they could inflict on us with the amount of treasuries they could dump?
Market Cap:BROS $55.78
NKE $53.50
Unreal. If you had told me four years ago that Dutch Bros stock would be higher than Nike's, I would have told you to lay off the medicinal marijuana. My heavens.
Relative market cap?BROS $55.78
NKE $53.50
Unreal. If you had told me four years ago that Dutch Bros stock would be higher than Nike's, I would have told you to lay off the medicinal marijuana. My heavens.
I should have said conversion. You are correct in that back door Roth term really is applicable for something more specific.History shows repeatedly that when things are bad it's best to be equities. Take advantage of this time if financially feasible for a back door Roth conversion. Personally I'm going to pick the absolute worst bottom and then move funds proportionally as we go down.Actually, I am not as well-versed on treasuries and bonds in general as I'd like. A textbook or a history lesson may be helpful. My guess is that many folks on this board know stocks, mutual funds, ETFs way better than bonds. My uneducated take is that confidence in the US is waning so people are selling bonds which is moving the price significantly.Equities, bonds, and the dollar all selling off. You don’t need textbooks of the future to tell you what is going on.This is what happens when you don't understand basic economics and act based on feelings instead of fundamentals. This fiasco will be in a lot of textbooks moving forward.30 yr treasury just hit 4.95%. Crazy considering the recent flight from equities.
This is a giant f’n dumpster fire.
In thinking about that and also weighing inflation, the weakening dollar, tariffs, geopolitical concerns, and waning consumer confidence, I feel that the negative sentiments are far outweighing the positive catalysts (even the AI trade is feeling tired though it is not that old and probably has morel legs.) Sure, lots of stocks are trading at a discount so they look attractive relative to themselves. But in just the past few days, I'm wanting to shift away from equities except for the best-in-class names and/or broad market ETFs and some tech (JPM, GS, QQQ, VTI, VWO, AMZN, NVDA, LMT) towards a much more conservative allocation. Gold is already high. Maybe back into bonds? Very uneasy at the moment.
you only need to do a backdoor roth conversion if you make $165,000 for single filers and $246,000 for married, right?
My odds are GM understanding this. He was saying Mike used to be $150 and Bros $30. Quite the reversial.Relative market cap?BROS $55.78
NKE $53.50
Unreal. If you had told me four years ago that Dutch Bros stock would be higher than Nike's, I would have told you to lay off the medicinal marijuana. My heavens.
So let's put NKE into perspective.Market Cap:BROS $55.78
NKE $53.50
Unreal. If you had told me four years ago that Dutch Bros stock would be higher than Nike's, I would have told you to lay off the medicinal marijuana. My heavens.
BROS $9.135B
NKE $79.689B
Share price ain't everything
It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?![]()
Analysis | The Simple Explanation for This Week’s Treasury Market Mayhem — The Wall Street Journal
While leveraged trades blowing up may have played a small role, traders’ search for a boogeyman ignores the obviousstocks.apple.com
Useful article in the WSJ on this.
![]()
The world's hot new trade is "sell America" — Axios
President Trump's whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere.stocks.apple.com
Also this piece.
Temporary...all part of the headline risks right in front of us.It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?![]()
Analysis | The Simple Explanation for This Week’s Treasury Market Mayhem — The Wall Street Journal
While leveraged trades blowing up may have played a small role, traders’ search for a boogeyman ignores the obviousstocks.apple.com
Useful article in the WSJ on this.
![]()
The world's hot new trade is "sell America" — Axios
President Trump's whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere.stocks.apple.com
Also this piece.
And one more - I fear we are on the front end of what will be a continuing decline in global confidence in the US. And I hope I am wrong.
You’re at the casino right now buddy.So was there some sort of good news an hour ago or something? Or are the markets just gonna market......
My odds are GM understanding this. He was saying Mike used to be $150 and Bros $30. Quite the reversial.Relative market cap?BROS $55.78
NKE $53.50
Unreal. If you had told me four years ago that Dutch Bros stock would be higher than Nike's, I would have told you to lay off the medicinal marijuana. My heavens.
You’re at the casino right now buddy.So was there some sort of good news an hour ago or something? Or are the markets just gonna market......
I admire conventional wisdom, and your wisdom in particular - and I can’t seem to shake the thought that that wisdom was forged in an era we are no longer in.Temporary...all part of the headline risks right in front of us.It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?![]()
Analysis | The Simple Explanation for This Week’s Treasury Market Mayhem — The Wall Street Journal
While leveraged trades blowing up may have played a small role, traders’ search for a boogeyman ignores the obviousstocks.apple.com
Useful article in the WSJ on this.
![]()
The world's hot new trade is "sell America" — Axios
President Trump's whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere.stocks.apple.com
Also this piece.
And one more - I fear we are on the front end of what will be a continuing decline in global confidence in the US. And I hope I am wrong.
This is all long term opportunity for people to invest.
Black swan is they cut rates but 30 keeps on chugging. Then you get a full on super panic(tm)Buzz going around that the FED is poised and ready to 'help' the markets. Can't substantiate, but think I heard this came from Forbes......market just took off like a scalded dog.
This market we are in at this very moment is highly volatile. The time to really push in a lot was before he put the 90 day pause on......but yesterday we gave back 30% of that rally.I admire conventional wisdom, and your wisdom in particular - and I can’t seem to shake the thought that that wisdom was forged in an era we are no longer in.Temporary...all part of the headline risks right in front of us.It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?![]()
Analysis | The Simple Explanation for This Week’s Treasury Market Mayhem — The Wall Street Journal
While leveraged trades blowing up may have played a small role, traders’ search for a boogeyman ignores the obviousstocks.apple.com
Useful article in the WSJ on this.
![]()
The world's hot new trade is "sell America" — Axios
President Trump's whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere.stocks.apple.com
Also this piece.
And one more - I fear we are on the front end of what will be a continuing decline in global confidence in the US. And I hope I am wrong.
This is all long term opportunity for people to invest.
![]()
‘The damage is done’: Trump’s tariffs put the dollar’s safe haven status in jeopardy
Experts say fears about unpredictable policy are creating crisis of confidence in US bonds once seen as ‘risk free’www.theguardian.com
If confidence in the US economic & political stability is on a downward trajectory, the question for me is do we drag the world economy down with us? Or is it time to look outside of the US for stability? (Which does not look like a good bet to me either).
So, here I sit with some cash to deploy & searching/waiting for clarity on when & where to do so.
Edit: I also offer this to all as a case study in fighting cognitive biases![]()
My thought is combination of fears of higher inflation and China selling bonds. The 10 year ties to almost all long term debt pricing. So as it goes up so does cost of other long-term debt. Biggest impact for individuals is on mortgages but all corporate long-term debt is tied to US treasuries as well.What's the significance of the 30 year hitting 5% here? Looks like it was there briefly in January and in October of 2023 as well?
If you’re new to the thread these last few weeks this guy gives great advice (as many do here). I’ve tailed him to much profit over the years. I appreciate him so much I even rooted for his stupid Panthers last June.Coiled Spring Stocks for those that have the stomach:
VRT
TTD
TSM
BX
LLY
NVDA
These all can be huge year end.....35-40% higher huge...maybe more if things go right on my bull case. But even if not....long term these are great plays.
Out at 10.20Hey fellow day traders - you holding over the weekend? Can't decide if I should dump my 10.00 SOXL at breakeven, or hold. Could get really good or really bad news over the weekend. Hmmmmm.
You got divorced again?Course maybe I should have just put it all in antimony.
I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.
- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).
- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.
- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)
- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)
If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."
Don’t forget about the federal debt and deficit. Even if we somehow are successful in reducing the budget gap there is high risk in it decelerating growth in the short term.I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.
- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).
- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.
- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)
- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)
If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."
This is where I'm at as well.
Stocks are basically back to where they were a year ago. But everything from sentiment to likely earnings are way worse than a year ago.
To me buying now feels a bit like buying in spring of 2022. Sure you got a little discount, but the real carnage was still to come. Stocks that we're talking about here like Meta and TTD were down a lot in spring of 2022, but they still dropped another 50% from there.
Long-term, sure. I'm not messing with my main retirement accounts or anything. But the cash I cleared closer to the highs in my liquid portfolios, I don't really have an interest in re-deploying that significantly yet. I've put about 5% of it back in. If this ends up being the bottom and I missed it, that's okay, I put in orders to re-buy where I originally sold to force myself to get back in if I'm wrong. But the SP 12% off highs doesn't feel like enough for where we are looking forward.
That answer for me is a resounding yes. The more I keep seeing:
"Consumer Confidence has not been this low since June 2022"
Inflation Outlook has not been this high since 1981"
The more I think the more I believe we already saw the bottom of the markets for 2025. Could we retest? Absolutely. But if these fundamentals prove true.....a rocket ride rally come the end of Fall start of November thru Christmas.
All these corporate revisions based on "what if's" can really coil the spring for the market when everything exceeds the doom and gloom expectations being baked into this intense volatility we are seeing right now.
My Bull Case is - Deals get done, tax cuts get passed, deregulation happens, interest rates get cut 2 times maybe even 3 and we end the year back where we were at the end of February and maybe even push for new highs ending the year with 6-7% total returns. - My probability scale on this is 75%
Base Case is - Deals get done but not as soon as we had hoped, heavy volatility thru the summer, the fed cuts once, Tax cuts do get passed and we end the year slightly above where we started for a small 2-4% gain. My probability scale on this is 20%
Bear Case - No deals get done, we fall into a mild recession, the market stays where it is and add's maybe another 10%-15% of downside on top of where we are today, no interest rate cuts as inflation get's stubborn with Tariffs being sticky - My probability scale on this is 5%
As you can see I don't buy into the panic, doom and gloom and don't believe this will be allowed to just crumble
There's 0 chance of this happening.Don’t forget about the federal debt and deficit. Even if we somehow are successful in reducing the budget gap there is high risk in it decelerating growth in the short term.I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.
- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).
- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.
- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)
- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)
If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."
This is where I'm at as well.
Stocks are basically back to where they were a year ago. But everything from sentiment to likely earnings are way worse than a year ago.
To me buying now feels a bit like buying in spring of 2022. Sure you got a little discount, but the real carnage was still to come. Stocks that we're talking about here like Meta and TTD were down a lot in spring of 2022, but they still dropped another 50% from there.
Long-term, sure. I'm not messing with my main retirement accounts or anything. But the cash I cleared closer to the highs in my liquid portfolios, I don't really have an interest in re-deploying that significantly yet. I've put about 5% of it back in. If this ends up being the bottom and I missed it, that's okay, I put in orders to re-buy where I originally sold to force myself to get back in if I'm wrong. But the SP 12% off highs doesn't feel like enough for where we are looking forward.
Don’t forget about the federal debt and deficit. Even if we somehow are successful in reducing the budget gap there is high risk in it decelerating growth in the short term.I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.
- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).
- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.
- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)
- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)
If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."
This is where I'm at as well.
Stocks are basically back to where they were a year ago. But everything from sentiment to likely earnings are way worse than a year ago.
To me buying now feels a bit like buying in spring of 2022. Sure you got a little discount, but the real carnage was still to come. Stocks that we're talking about here like Meta and TTD were down a lot in spring of 2022, but they still dropped another 50% from there.
Long-term, sure. I'm not messing with my main retirement accounts or anything. But the cash I cleared closer to the highs in my liquid portfolios, I don't really have an interest in re-deploying that significantly yet. I've put about 5% of it back in. If this ends up being the bottom and I missed it, that's okay, I put in orders to re-buy where I originally sold to force myself to get back in if I'm wrong. But the SP 12% off highs doesn't feel like enough for where we are looking forward.
Don’t forget about the federal debt and deficit. Even if we somehow are successful in reducing the budget gap there is high risk in it decelerating growth in the short term.I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.
- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).
- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.
- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)
- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)
If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."
This is where I'm at as well.
Stocks are basically back to where they were a year ago. But everything from sentiment to likely earnings are way worse than a year ago.
To me buying now feels a bit like buying in spring of 2022. Sure you got a little discount, but the real carnage was still to come. Stocks that we're talking about here like Meta and TTD were down a lot in spring of 2022, but they still dropped another 50% from there.
Long-term, sure. I'm not messing with my main retirement accounts or anything. But the cash I cleared closer to the highs in my liquid portfolios, I don't really have an interest in re-deploying that significantly yet. I've put about 5% of it back in. If this ends up being the bottom and I missed it, that's okay, I put in orders to re-buy where I originally sold to force myself to get back in if I'm wrong. But the SP 12% off highs doesn't feel like enough for where we are looking forward.
Something lost in entire tariff discussion is that our massive trade deficits help fund our massive budget deficits since foreigners need to park their dollars somewhere. This has helped keep interest rates artificially low. Shrinking of our trade gap could have very unintended consequences and result in higher rates as clearly our leaders in both parties don’t have desire to actual shrink our budget deficits.
Don’t forget about the federal debt and deficit. Even if we somehow are successful in reducing the budget gap there is high risk in it decelerating growth in the short term.I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.
- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).
- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.
- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)
- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)
If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."
This is where I'm at as well.
Stocks are basically back to where they were a year ago. But everything from sentiment to likely earnings are way worse than a year ago.
To me buying now feels a bit like buying in spring of 2022. Sure you got a little discount, but the real carnage was still to come. Stocks that we're talking about here like Meta and TTD were down a lot in spring of 2022, but they still dropped another 50% from there.
Long-term, sure. I'm not messing with my main retirement accounts or anything. But the cash I cleared closer to the highs in my liquid portfolios, I don't really have an interest in re-deploying that significantly yet. I've put about 5% of it back in. If this ends up being the bottom and I missed it, that's okay, I put in orders to re-buy where I originally sold to force myself to get back in if I'm wrong. But the SP 12% off highs doesn't feel like enough for where we are looking forward.
Something lost in entire tariff discussion is that our massive trade deficits help fund our massive budget deficits since foreigners need to park their dollars somewhere. This has helped keep interest rates artificially low. Shrinking of our trade gap could have very unintended consequences and result in higher rates as clearly our leaders in both parties don’t have desire to actual shrink our budget deficits.
Yup. And if the 30 unravels all of a sudden Americans biggest and often only asset craters.
Little tech love coming Monday as phone, screens, computers, and semiconductors have their tariffs slashed. Waiting to see tariff negotiations include mandatory US treasury purchases to drive down rates.
Yeah. This is about right. When the US caves, as they did again today, there will be a rally.Its not so much FOMO for me, but victory could be claimed at any minute. I realize there is more going on than just that. The stuff I like is on clearance so I'll buy. My cash grows every week/month too. I'm not set at a fixed amount to play with.
What happened today?Yeah. This is about right. When the US caves, as they did again today, there will be a rally.Its not so much FOMO for me, but victory could be claimed at any minute. I realize there is more going on than just that. The stuff I like is on clearance so I'll buy. My cash grows every week/month too. I'm not set at a fixed amount to play with.
But there is a real long term cost with this.Yeah. This is about right. When the US caves, as they did again today, there will be a rally.Its not so much FOMO for me, but victory could be claimed at any minute. I realize there is more going on than just that. The stuff I like is on clearance so I'll buy. My cash grows every week/month too. I'm not set at a fixed amount to play with.
I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.
- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).
- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.
- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)
- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)
If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."
My post has nothing to do with anecdotal returns on individual stocks. Nor market timing for equities (in terms of picking a bottom).I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.
- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).
- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.
- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)
- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)
If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."
P/E ratios are at historical lows for the stocks I'm investing in. Google, Amazon,
Technicals are great for a rebound based on VIX and negative sentiment. Everything from a historical standpoint says buying at these levels is a smart move. Yes it may not be the bottom, but your odds of finding the bottom are not good. If we were grading investing, if you buy now and it's early, next year you will get a B grade. If these are the lows and you have to buy back higher or not at all, your grade is a D or an F. We saw this with the pandemic in this thread. People sold it all at depressed levels or held their cash because the economy was going to be shut down for years. People were saying the pandemic crash couldn't be compared to any of the other crashes. I ended up with a 115% return that year and that included buying a bunch of trash that went to zero.
The AMD I piled in 3 days ago is up 22%. I feel pretty good this is a double up by this time next year. The Celsius I bought in March is up 40%.
In summary, the rush to deploy is because it's much more costly not to have a chair when the music stops.
I would assume tech fires off on Monday but every time something seems obvious the opposite happens.Yeah. This is about right. When the US caves, as they did again today, there will be a rally.Its not so much FOMO for me, but victory could be claimed at any minute. I realize there is more going on than just that. The stuff I like is on clearance so I'll buy. My cash grows every week/month too. I'm not set at a fixed amount to play with.
Wish they waited until Monday morning to announce it so we didn’t have the Sunday Morning shows to shoot any holes in it, or for things to change.I would assume tech fires off on Monday but every time something seems obvious the opposite happens.Yeah. This is about right. When the US caves, as they did again today, there will be a rally.Its not so much FOMO for me, but victory could be claimed at any minute. I realize there is more going on than just that. The stuff I like is on clearance so I'll buy. My cash grows every week/month too. I'm not set at a fixed amount to play with.