Stock Thread (35 Viewers)

[Sand]

For those saying I was harsh in my China comments. Here they are admitting to hacking into our infrastructure companies. If anyone was invested in affected utilities they did you direct harm. Pretty terrible behavior and definitely deleterious to asset values.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/in-secret-meeting-china-acknowledged-role-in-u-s-infrastructure-hacks-c5ab37cb

 

[Orange&Blue]

30 yr treasury just hit 4.95%. Crazy considering the recent flight from equities.

This is a giant f’n dumpster fire.

This is what happens when you don't understand basic economics and act based on feelings instead of fundamentals. This fiasco will be in a lot of textbooks moving forward.

Equities, bonds, and the dollar all selling off. You don’t need textbooks of the future to tell you what is going on.

Actually, I am not as well-versed on treasuries and bonds in general as I'd like. A textbook or a history lesson may be helpful. My guess is that many folks on this board know stocks, mutual funds, ETFs way better than bonds. My uneducated take is that confidence in the US is waning so people are selling bonds which is moving the price significantly.

In thinking about that and also weighing inflation, the weakening dollar, tariffs, geopolitical concerns, and waning consumer confidence, I feel that the negative sentiments are far outweighing the positive catalysts (even the AI trade is feeling tired though it is not that old and probably has morel legs.) Sure, lots of stocks are trading at a discount so they look attractive relative to themselves. But in just the past few days, I'm wanting to shift away from equities except for the best-in-class names and/or broad market ETFs and some tech (JPM, GS, QQQ, VTI, VWO, AMZN, NVDA, LMT) towards a much more conservative allocation. Gold is already high. Maybe back into bonds? Very uneasy at the moment.

History shows repeatedly that when things are bad it's best to be equities. Take advantage of this time if financially feasible for a back door Roth conversion. Personally I'm going to pick the absolute worst bottom and then move funds proportionally as we go down.

you only need to do a backdoor roth conversion if you make $165,000 for single filers and $246,000 for married, right?

 

[ghostguy123]

No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?

 

[Todem]

No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?

It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.

 

[dancingbones]

No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?

It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.

Analysis | The Simple Explanation for This Week’s Treasury Market Mayhem — The Wall Street Journal

While leveraged trades blowing up may have played a small role, traders’ search for a boogeyman ignores the obvious

stocks.apple.com

Useful article in the WSJ on this.

The world's hot new trade is "sell America" — Axios

President Trump's whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere.

stocks.apple.com

Also this piece.

 

[General Malaise]

BROS $55.78
NKE $53.50

Unreal. If you had told me four years ago that Dutch Bros stock would be higher than Nike's, I would have told you to lay off the medicinal marijuana. My heavens.

 

[General Malaise]

For those of you who think China will bend the knee, good luck with that. They can endure pain far longer than we can. Can you imagine the pain they could inflict on us with the amount of treasuries they could dump?

Gold $3,240......

 

[The Z Machine]

BROS $55.78
NKE $53.50

Unreal. If you had told me four years ago that Dutch Bros stock would be higher than Nike's, I would have told you to lay off the medicinal marijuana. My heavens.

Market Cap:

BROS $9.135B
NKE $79.689B

Share price ain't everything

 

[Nugget]

BROS $55.78
NKE $53.50

Unreal. If you had told me four years ago that Dutch Bros stock would be higher than Nike's, I would have told you to lay off the medicinal marijuana. My heavens.

Relative market cap?

 

[The Z Machine]

BTW, I own BROS stock and have never bought anything there nor seen a store. Simply on the hype in this thread.

 

[BassNBrew]

30 yr treasury just hit 4.95%. Crazy considering the recent flight from equities.

This is a giant f’n dumpster fire.

This is what happens when you don't understand basic economics and act based on feelings instead of fundamentals. This fiasco will be in a lot of textbooks moving forward.

Equities, bonds, and the dollar all selling off. You don’t need textbooks of the future to tell you what is going on.

Actually, I am not as well-versed on treasuries and bonds in general as I'd like. A textbook or a history lesson may be helpful. My guess is that many folks on this board know stocks, mutual funds, ETFs way better than bonds. My uneducated take is that confidence in the US is waning so people are selling bonds which is moving the price significantly.

In thinking about that and also weighing inflation, the weakening dollar, tariffs, geopolitical concerns, and waning consumer confidence, I feel that the negative sentiments are far outweighing the positive catalysts (even the AI trade is feeling tired though it is not that old and probably has morel legs.) Sure, lots of stocks are trading at a discount so they look attractive relative to themselves. But in just the past few days, I'm wanting to shift away from equities except for the best-in-class names and/or broad market ETFs and some tech (JPM, GS, QQQ, VTI, VWO, AMZN, NVDA, LMT) towards a much more conservative allocation. Gold is already high. Maybe back into bonds? Very uneasy at the moment.

History shows repeatedly that when things are bad it's best to be equities. Take advantage of this time if financially feasible for a back door Roth conversion. Personally I'm going to pick the absolute worst bottom and then move funds proportionally as we go down.

you only need to do a backdoor roth conversion if you make $165,000 for single filers and $246,000 for married, right?

I should have said conversion. You are correct in that back door Roth term really is applicable for something more specific.

 

[BassNBrew]

BROS $55.78
NKE $53.50

Unreal. If you had told me four years ago that Dutch Bros stock would be higher than Nike's, I would have told you to lay off the medicinal marijuana. My heavens.

Relative market cap?

My odds are GM understanding this. He was saying Mike used to be $150 and Bros $30. Quite the reversial.

 

[Todem]

BROS $55.78
NKE $53.50

Unreal. If you had told me four years ago that Dutch Bros stock would be higher than Nike's, I would have told you to lay off the medicinal marijuana. My heavens.

Market Cap:

BROS $9.135B
NKE $79.689B

Share price ain't everything

So let's put NKE into perspective.

This is a value trap (it's not even a value at this price as I will explain). We have been outta NKE for a long while now.

Revenue Growth ending 2/28/2025 before all this "China Trade War Tariff" stuff has taken over our news cycle was negative 7.3% Let me repeat that......-7.3%

It's forward multiple after this beat down is still sitting at 32.5 X's Earnings.

Stay away.

If you want to trade it on headlines...by all means. I could see a 20% pop on news a deal is done with China over the next 2-3 months.

But I am not "investing" into this company anymore. They have a revenue growth problem......they have a brand problem. Not a fan.

 

[dancingbones]

No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?

It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.

Analysis | The Simple Explanation for This Week’s Treasury Market Mayhem — The Wall Street Journal

While leveraged trades blowing up may have played a small role, traders’ search for a boogeyman ignores the obvious

stocks.apple.com

Useful article in the WSJ on this.

The world's hot new trade is "sell America" — Axios

President Trump's whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere.

stocks.apple.com

Also this piece.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/04/11/tariffs-economy-bond-market-trump-treasuries/

And one more - I fear we are on the front end of what will be a continuing decline in global confidence in the US. And I hope I am wrong.

 

[ghostguy123]

So was there some sort of good news an hour ago or something? Or are the markets just gonna market......

 

[Todem]

No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?

It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.

Analysis | The Simple Explanation for This Week’s Treasury Market Mayhem — The Wall Street Journal

While leveraged trades blowing up may have played a small role, traders’ search for a boogeyman ignores the obvious

stocks.apple.com

Useful article in the WSJ on this.

The world's hot new trade is "sell America" — Axios

President Trump's whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere.

stocks.apple.com

Also this piece.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/04/11/tariffs-economy-bond-market-trump-treasuries/

And one more - I fear we are on the front end of what will be a continuing decline in global confidence in the US. And I hope I am wrong.

Temporary...all part of the headline risks right in front of us.

This is all long term opportunity for people to invest.

 

[Capella]

So was there some sort of good news an hour ago or something? Or are the markets just gonna market......

You’re at the casino right now buddy.

 

[General Malaise]

BROS $55.78
NKE $53.50

Unreal. If you had told me four years ago that Dutch Bros stock would be higher than Nike's, I would have told you to lay off the medicinal marijuana. My heavens.

Relative market cap?

My odds are GM understanding this. He was saying Mike used to be $150 and Bros $30. Quite the reversial.

Yeah, I know I'm a nitwit but I definitely understand the size differential between the two companies. Just seems weird to me that on the day BROS launched in 2021, NKE was trading at $150.

I don't own either at the moment, but the only one I'd consider and will buy again soon is BROS. Though I did think of BnB yesterday as I walked past the one I go by 2x a day and at 2pm it had only 1 car in line.

Now, it was 2pm....not the sweet spot for coffee, but I can count on one hand the number of times that place has had 1 car only. Almost took a picture for FFA Thread Research purposes. I'll report back today.

This has been General Malaise for YouTube macro-economics

 

[General Malaise]

So was there some sort of good news an hour ago or something? Or are the markets just gonna market......

You’re at the casino right now buddy.

Man, hadn't been to a Vegas casino in 20 years. First thing I noticed when I checked into one recently was all the damn cigarette smoke. It's a shock to the system to smell it again indoors. I think you'd get the electric chair if you lit up inside in Oregon.

 

[General Malaise]

alright, talked myself back into BROS since it's red and seems to have found a new range. We'll see.

 

[General Malaise]

Buzz going around that the FED is poised and ready to 'help' the markets. Can't substantiate, but think I heard this came from Forbes......market just took off like a scalded dog.

 

[dancingbones]

No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?

It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.

Analysis | The Simple Explanation for This Week’s Treasury Market Mayhem — The Wall Street Journal

While leveraged trades blowing up may have played a small role, traders’ search for a boogeyman ignores the obvious

stocks.apple.com

Useful article in the WSJ on this.

The world's hot new trade is "sell America" — Axios

President Trump's whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere.

stocks.apple.com

Also this piece.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/04/11/tariffs-economy-bond-market-trump-treasuries/

And one more - I fear we are on the front end of what will be a continuing decline in global confidence in the US. And I hope I am wrong.

Temporary...all part of the headline risks right in front of us.

This is all long term opportunity for people to invest.

I admire conventional wisdom, and your wisdom in particular - and I can’t seem to shake the thought that that wisdom was forged in an era we are no longer in.

‘The damage is done’: Trump’s tariffs put the dollar’s safe haven status in jeopardy

Experts say fears about unpredictable policy are creating crisis of confidence in US bonds once seen as ‘risk free’

www.theguardian.com

If confidence in the US economic & political stability is on a downward trajectory, the question for me is do we drag the world economy down with us? Or is it time to look outside of the US for stability? (Which does not look like a good bet to me either).

So, here I sit with some cash to deploy & searching/waiting for clarity on when & where to do so.

Edit: I also offer this to all as a case study in fighting cognitive biases

 

[culdeus]

Buzz going around that the FED is poised and ready to 'help' the markets. Can't substantiate, but think I heard this came from Forbes......market just took off like a scalded dog.

Black swan is they cut rates but 30 keeps on chugging. Then you get a full on super panic(tm)

 

[Todem]

No economics expert here, but what's the significance of this talk about the 10 and 30 year treasuries nearing 5%?

It means our debt is being sold not bought. And it raises mortgage rates.

Analysis | The Simple Explanation for This Week’s Treasury Market Mayhem — The Wall Street Journal

While leveraged trades blowing up may have played a small role, traders’ search for a boogeyman ignores the obvious

stocks.apple.com

Useful article in the WSJ on this.

The world's hot new trade is "sell America" — Axios

President Trump's whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere.

stocks.apple.com

Also this piece.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/04/11/tariffs-economy-bond-market-trump-treasuries/

And one more - I fear we are on the front end of what will be a continuing decline in global confidence in the US. And I hope I am wrong.

Temporary...all part of the headline risks right in front of us.

This is all long term opportunity for people to invest.

I admire conventional wisdom, and your wisdom in particular - and I can’t seem to shake the thought that that wisdom was forged in an era we are no longer in.

‘The damage is done’: Trump’s tariffs put the dollar’s safe haven status in jeopardy

Experts say fears about unpredictable policy are creating crisis of confidence in US bonds once seen as ‘risk free’

www.theguardian.com

If confidence in the US economic & political stability is on a downward trajectory, the question for me is do we drag the world economy down with us? Or is it time to look outside of the US for stability? (Which does not look like a good bet to me either).

So, here I sit with some cash to deploy & searching/waiting for clarity on when & where to do so.

Edit: I also offer this to all as a case study in fighting cognitive biases

This market we are in at this very moment is highly volatile. The time to really push in a lot was before he put the 90 day pause on......but yesterday we gave back 30% of that rally.

To me I would be buying big volatile dips and keep that long term outlook. The media...I am sorry but their job is to keep you reading/watching/swiping/clicking. I have zero faith in financial media as well. It's total pornography and it's been like this going on 30 years.

And yes it all comes down to confidence (in the very short term).....confidence in our system, way of life and are we the strongest economy and nation in the world.

That answer for me is a resounding yes. The more I keep seeing:

"Consumer Confidence has not been this low since June 2022"

Inflation Outlook has not been this high since 1981"

The more I think the more I believe we already saw the bottom of the markets for 2025. Could we retest? Absolutely. But if these fundamentals prove true.....a rocket ride rally come the end of Fall start of November thru Christmas.

All these corporate revisions based on "what if's" can really coil the spring for the market when everything exceeds the doom and gloom expectations being baked into this intense volatility we are seeing right now.

My Bull Case is - Deals get done, tax cuts get passed, deregulation happens, interest rates get cut 2 times maybe even 3 and we end the year back where we were at the end of February and maybe even push for new highs ending the year with 6-7% total returns. - My probability scale on this is 75%

Base Case is - Deals get done but not as soon as we had hoped, heavy volatility thru the summer, the fed cuts once, Tax cuts do get passed and we end the year slightly above where we started for a small 2-4% gain. My probability scale on this is 20%

Bear Case - No deals get done, we fall into a mild recession, the market stays where it is and add's maybe another 10%-15% of downside on top of where we are today, no interest rate cuts as inflation get's stubborn with Tariffs being sticky - My probability scale on this is 5%

As you can see I don't buy into the panic, doom and gloom and don't believe this will be allowed to just crumble.


Take advantage folks.

 

[NajehHejan]

Hey fellow day traders - you holding over the weekend? Can't decide if I should dump my 10.00 SOXL at breakeven, or hold. Could get really good or really bad news over the weekend. Hmmmmm.

 

[Redwes25]

What's the significance of the 30 year hitting 5% here? Looks like it was there briefly in January and in October of 2023 as well?

My thought is combination of fears of higher inflation and China selling bonds. The 10 year ties to almost all long term debt pricing. So as it goes up so does cost of other long-term debt. Biggest impact for individuals is on mortgages but all corporate long-term debt is tied to US treasuries as well.

I doubt 10 year gets to 5% without fed acting. If it does get there I am definitely a buyer.

Usually I purchase individual munis for fixed income hedge but would probably by 10 years in taxed sheltered accounts if it hits 5 percent.

 

[Todem]

Coiled Spring Stocks for those that have the stomach:

VRT
TTD
TSM
BX
LLY
NVDA


These all can be huge year end.....35-40% higher huge...maybe more if things go right on my bull case. But even if not....long term these are great plays.

 

[General Malaise]

Doubled TTD and added to my NVDA. Thanks Todem for being the thread's north star.

 

[Capella]

Coiled Spring Stocks for those that have the stomach:

VRT
TTD
TSM
BX
LLY
NVDA


These all can be huge year end.....35-40% higher huge...maybe more if things go right on my bull case. But even if not....long term these are great plays.

If you’re new to the thread these last few weeks this guy gives great advice (as many do here). I’ve tailed him to much profit over the years. I appreciate him so much I even rooted for his stupid Panthers last June.

 

[NajehHejan]

Hey fellow day traders - you holding over the weekend? Can't decide if I should dump my 10.00 SOXL at breakeven, or hold. Could get really good or really bad news over the weekend. Hmmmmm.

Out at 10.20

GLTA

 

[General Malaise]

Course maybe I should have just put it all in antimony.

 

[gianmarco]

Course maybe I should have just put it all in antimony.

You got divorced again?

 

[Stoneworker]

I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.

- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).

- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.

- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)

- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)

If the S&P falls below 4700 or so, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.

- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).

- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.

- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)

- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)

If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."

This is where I'm at as well.

Stocks are basically back to where they were a year ago. But everything from sentiment to likely earnings are way worse than a year ago.

To me buying now feels a bit like buying in spring of 2022. Sure you got a little discount, but the real carnage was still to come. Stocks that we're talking about here like Meta and TTD were down a lot in spring of 2022, but they still dropped another 50% from there.

Long-term, sure. I'm not messing with my main retirement accounts or anything. But the cash I cleared closer to the highs in my liquid portfolios, I don't really have an interest in re-deploying that significantly yet. I've put about 5% of it back in. If this ends up being the bottom and I missed it, that's okay, I put in orders to re-buy where I originally sold to force myself to get back in if I'm wrong. But the SP 12% off highs doesn't feel like enough for where we are looking forward.

 

[The Z Machine]

There will be layoffs and carnage if a deal to lower tariffs with China doesn't materialize. Prices will get jacked up to cover the cost of the shipments on the water and even then, profits will get squeezed. I'm super fearful of losing my job in this chaos.

 

[beef]

Its not so much FOMO for me, but victory could be claimed at any minute. I realize there is more going on than just that. The stuff I like is on clearance so I'll buy. My cash grows every week/month too. I'm not set at a fixed amount to play with.

 

[djmich]

I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.

- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).

- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.

- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)

- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)

If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."

This is where I'm at as well.

Stocks are basically back to where they were a year ago. But everything from sentiment to likely earnings are way worse than a year ago.

To me buying now feels a bit like buying in spring of 2022. Sure you got a little discount, but the real carnage was still to come. Stocks that we're talking about here like Meta and TTD were down a lot in spring of 2022, but they still dropped another 50% from there.

Long-term, sure. I'm not messing with my main retirement accounts or anything. But the cash I cleared closer to the highs in my liquid portfolios, I don't really have an interest in re-deploying that significantly yet. I've put about 5% of it back in. If this ends up being the bottom and I missed it, that's okay, I put in orders to re-buy where I originally sold to force myself to get back in if I'm wrong. But the SP 12% off highs doesn't feel like enough for where we are looking forward.

Don’t forget about the federal debt and deficit. Even if we somehow are successful in reducing the budget gap there is high risk in it decelerating growth in the short term.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

That answer for me is a resounding yes. The more I keep seeing:

"Consumer Confidence has not been this low since June 2022"

Inflation Outlook has not been this high since 1981"

The more I think the more I believe we already saw the bottom of the markets for 2025. Could we retest? Absolutely. But if these fundamentals prove true.....a rocket ride rally come the end of Fall start of November thru Christmas.

All these corporate revisions based on "what if's" can really coil the spring for the market when everything exceeds the doom and gloom expectations being baked into this intense volatility we are seeing right now.

My Bull Case is - Deals get done, tax cuts get passed, deregulation happens, interest rates get cut 2 times maybe even 3 and we end the year back where we were at the end of February and maybe even push for new highs ending the year with 6-7% total returns. - My probability scale on this is 75%

Base Case is - Deals get done but not as soon as we had hoped, heavy volatility thru the summer, the fed cuts once, Tax cuts do get passed and we end the year slightly above where we started for a small 2-4% gain. My probability scale on this is 20%

Bear Case - No deals get done, we fall into a mild recession, the market stays where it is and add's maybe another 10%-15% of downside on top of where we are today, no interest rate cuts as inflation get's stubborn with Tariffs being sticky - My probability scale on this is 5%

As you can see I don't buy into the panic, doom and gloom and don't believe this will be allowed to just crumble

All of this.

I'm not an expert like you but "coiled spring" was the adjective I was looking for in regards to the upcoming AAPL and AMZN earnings. (ETA best case scenario looking for a close over $200 for both) Would be a beautiful thing to give Mrs. SLB a blank check to remodel our kitchen for our 30th wedding anniversary. God knows she has put up with more than her share our time together. Heck, she's bailed more of my friends out of jail in the wee hours of the morning than the rest of this thread combined.

To the bolded, the only time I was really shaken was seeing Jamie Dimon interviewed in March 2020 and he was beyond rattled which is unusual to say the least. It was like the nukes were in the air.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.

- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).

- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.

- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)

- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)

If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."

This is where I'm at as well.

Stocks are basically back to where they were a year ago. But everything from sentiment to likely earnings are way worse than a year ago.

To me buying now feels a bit like buying in spring of 2022. Sure you got a little discount, but the real carnage was still to come. Stocks that we're talking about here like Meta and TTD were down a lot in spring of 2022, but they still dropped another 50% from there.

Long-term, sure. I'm not messing with my main retirement accounts or anything. But the cash I cleared closer to the highs in my liquid portfolios, I don't really have an interest in re-deploying that significantly yet. I've put about 5% of it back in. If this ends up being the bottom and I missed it, that's okay, I put in orders to re-buy where I originally sold to force myself to get back in if I'm wrong. But the SP 12% off highs doesn't feel like enough for where we are looking forward.

Don’t forget about the federal debt and deficit. Even if we somehow are successful in reducing the budget gap there is high risk in it decelerating growth in the short term.

There's 0 chance of this happening.

 

[Redwes25]

I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.

- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).

- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.

- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)

- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)

If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."

This is where I'm at as well.

Stocks are basically back to where they were a year ago. But everything from sentiment to likely earnings are way worse than a year ago.

To me buying now feels a bit like buying in spring of 2022. Sure you got a little discount, but the real carnage was still to come. Stocks that we're talking about here like Meta and TTD were down a lot in spring of 2022, but they still dropped another 50% from there.

Long-term, sure. I'm not messing with my main retirement accounts or anything. But the cash I cleared closer to the highs in my liquid portfolios, I don't really have an interest in re-deploying that significantly yet. I've put about 5% of it back in. If this ends up being the bottom and I missed it, that's okay, I put in orders to re-buy where I originally sold to force myself to get back in if I'm wrong. But the SP 12% off highs doesn't feel like enough for where we are looking forward.

Don’t forget about the federal debt and deficit. Even if we somehow are successful in reducing the budget gap there is high risk in it decelerating growth in the short term.

Something lost in entire tariff discussion is that our massive trade deficits help fund our massive budget deficits since foreigners need to park their dollars somewhere. This has helped keep interest rates artificially low. Shrinking of our trade gap could have very unintended consequences and result in higher rates as clearly our leaders in both parties don’t have desire to actual shrink our budget deficits.

 

[culdeus]

I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.

- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).

- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.

- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)

- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)

If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."

This is where I'm at as well.

Stocks are basically back to where they were a year ago. But everything from sentiment to likely earnings are way worse than a year ago.

To me buying now feels a bit like buying in spring of 2022. Sure you got a little discount, but the real carnage was still to come. Stocks that we're talking about here like Meta and TTD were down a lot in spring of 2022, but they still dropped another 50% from there.

Long-term, sure. I'm not messing with my main retirement accounts or anything. But the cash I cleared closer to the highs in my liquid portfolios, I don't really have an interest in re-deploying that significantly yet. I've put about 5% of it back in. If this ends up being the bottom and I missed it, that's okay, I put in orders to re-buy where I originally sold to force myself to get back in if I'm wrong. But the SP 12% off highs doesn't feel like enough for where we are looking forward.

Don’t forget about the federal debt and deficit. Even if we somehow are successful in reducing the budget gap there is high risk in it decelerating growth in the short term.

Something lost in entire tariff discussion is that our massive trade deficits help fund our massive budget deficits since foreigners need to park their dollars somewhere. This has helped keep interest rates artificially low. Shrinking of our trade gap could have very unintended consequences and result in higher rates as clearly our leaders in both parties don’t have desire to actual shrink our budget deficits.

Yup. And if the 30 unravels all of a sudden Americans biggest and often only asset craters.

 

[Redwes25]

I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.

- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).

- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.

- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)

- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)

If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."

This is where I'm at as well.

Stocks are basically back to where they were a year ago. But everything from sentiment to likely earnings are way worse than a year ago.

To me buying now feels a bit like buying in spring of 2022. Sure you got a little discount, but the real carnage was still to come. Stocks that we're talking about here like Meta and TTD were down a lot in spring of 2022, but they still dropped another 50% from there.

Long-term, sure. I'm not messing with my main retirement accounts or anything. But the cash I cleared closer to the highs in my liquid portfolios, I don't really have an interest in re-deploying that significantly yet. I've put about 5% of it back in. If this ends up being the bottom and I missed it, that's okay, I put in orders to re-buy where I originally sold to force myself to get back in if I'm wrong. But the SP 12% off highs doesn't feel like enough for where we are looking forward.

Don’t forget about the federal debt and deficit. Even if we somehow are successful in reducing the budget gap there is high risk in it decelerating growth in the short term.

Something lost in entire tariff discussion is that our massive trade deficits help fund our massive budget deficits since foreigners need to park their dollars somewhere. This has helped keep interest rates artificially low. Shrinking of our trade gap could have very unintended consequences and result in higher rates as clearly our leaders in both parties don’t have desire to actual shrink our budget deficits.

Yup. And if the 30 unravels all of a sudden Americans biggest and often only asset craters.

It is the 10 year that is key rate as basically all consumer (including mortgage rates) and corporate debt tie off of it. The long bond is issued in much smaller amounts.

 

[Schmeabs]

10 year Treasury at 4.50%. Lots of you guys are talking like it is headed over 5%. I think it finishes the year below where it is today and closer to 4%.

 

[Nugget]

Little tech love coming Monday as phone, screens, computers, and semiconductors have their tariffs slashed. Waiting to see tariff negotiations include mandatory US treasury purchases to drive down rates.

 

[culdeus]

Little tech love coming Monday as phone, screens, computers, and semiconductors have their tariffs slashed. Waiting to see tariff negotiations include mandatory US treasury purchases to drive down rates.

So we want manufacturing here for high-tech stuff, so we cut tariffs on it and eliminate subsidies for factories stateside as well.

Makes total sense.

 

[Desert_Power]

Its not so much FOMO for me, but victory could be claimed at any minute. I realize there is more going on than just that. The stuff I like is on clearance so I'll buy. My cash grows every week/month too. I'm not set at a fixed amount to play with.

Yeah. This is about right. When the US caves, as they did again today, there will be a rally.

 

[ghostguy123]

Its not so much FOMO for me, but victory could be claimed at any minute. I realize there is more going on than just that. The stuff I like is on clearance so I'll buy. My cash grows every week/month too. I'm not set at a fixed amount to play with.

Yeah. This is about right. When the US caves, as they did again today, there will be a rally.

What happened today?

 

[Desert_Power]

Its not so much FOMO for me, but victory could be claimed at any minute. I realize there is more going on than just that. The stuff I like is on clearance so I'll buy. My cash grows every week/month too. I'm not set at a fixed amount to play with.

Yeah. This is about right. When the US caves, as they did again today, there will be a rally.

But there is a real long term cost with this.

 

[BassNBrew]

I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.

- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).

- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.

- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)

- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)

If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."

P/E ratios are at historical lows for the stocks I'm investing in. Google, Amazon,

Technicals are great for a rebound based on VIX and negative sentiment. Everything from a historical standpoint says buying at these levels is a smart move. Yes it may not be the bottom, but your odds of finding the bottom are not good. If we were grading investing, if you buy now and it's early, next year you will get a B grade. If these are the lows and you have to buy back higher or not at all, your grade is a D or an F. We saw this with the pandemic in this thread. People sold it all at depressed levels or held their cash because the economy was going to be shut down for years. People were saying the pandemic crash couldn't be compared to any of the other crashes. I ended up with a 115% return that year and that included buying a bunch of trash that went to zero.

The AMD I piled in 3 days ago is up 22%. I feel pretty good this is a double up by this time next year. The Celsius I bought in March is up 40%.

In summary, the rush to deploy is because it's much more costly not to have a chair when the music stops.

 

[Stoneworker]

I don't understand some of the rush in here to deploy cash into stocks at these valuation levels, even for holding long-term. Seems kinda FOMO to me.

- S&P P/E ratios are still historically high, which implies lower than average expected future returns (maybe 5-7% range).

- S&P earnings yield at 4% is below the risk-free 10-year Treasury rate of 4.5%, implying below average risk premium for owning stocks over bonds.

- S&P technicals are bad right now (downtrend, high volatility, no established bottom or basing pattern)

- All the economic and market risk is to the downside (consumer sentiment, recession probabilities, stagflation, uncertainty, etc)

If the S&P falls below 4500, then I'm interested. But just because prices have fallen doesn't mean they're "on sale."

P/E ratios are at historical lows for the stocks I'm investing in. Google, Amazon,

Technicals are great for a rebound based on VIX and negative sentiment. Everything from a historical standpoint says buying at these levels is a smart move. Yes it may not be the bottom, but your odds of finding the bottom are not good. If we were grading investing, if you buy now and it's early, next year you will get a B grade. If these are the lows and you have to buy back higher or not at all, your grade is a D or an F. We saw this with the pandemic in this thread. People sold it all at depressed levels or held their cash because the economy was going to be shut down for years. People were saying the pandemic crash couldn't be compared to any of the other crashes. I ended up with a 115% return that year and that included buying a bunch of trash that went to zero.

The AMD I piled in 3 days ago is up 22%. I feel pretty good this is a double up by this time next year. The Celsius I bought in March is up 40%.

In summary, the rush to deploy is because it's much more costly not to have a chair when the music stops.

My post has nothing to do with anecdotal returns on individual stocks. Nor market timing for equities (in terms of picking a bottom).

It's about the current risk/return tradeoff across asset classes relative to historical norms.

At the market level, even with recent declines, stock investors are not getting paid (as measured by expected future returns) what they have traditionally demanded (as measured by spread over Treasuries) for taking on the increased risk of owning equities. Those are just numerical facts.

That's all well and good in a risk-on environment. But not in today's world.