Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I have a lung that says they don't make that timeline.
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Stock Thread (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I know nothing specific, mind you, but that's what their history of over-promising and under-delivering says.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
VRT 
Pipes
Footballguy
Lets Go!VRT
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I guess AI isn't dead.
Thanks to @Todem for pointing this one out. While the initial entry point wasn't great, the premise was strong. Personally I kept pounding it into the low $60s. It's grown to 4% of my holdings which will approach 4.5% today on the bump. I'll likely trim today as I recall the suggested weighting was 1-2%.
Todem
Footballguy
MTskibum
Footballguy
I know that is a shot at me, but that is ok. It takes time for investment to dry up it isn't overnight.
Also, I could be wrong and in a year you can gloat and i can eat crow then.
I think my outlook is more negative based on the industry i am in. I work in middle management and my manager has gone from 11 reports to 5 in last 2 months. Every week i have a different coworker let go.
In addition, i currently have 4 developers/ 1 analyst. My budget runs out on some of them starting end of Q2. I will be down to 2 developers by end of year.
This is why i wanted large cash, i fear I could be laid off at any time.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
First of all, sorry to hear about your personal situation. Smart move moving to cash to mitigate against future bad news. If you can expand on your situation (and care to), I would be interesed in the nuts and bolts why things are drying up in your industry.
That wasn't a shot at you personally. I've been reading/watching a lot of media talking about how recent events are going to crash the AI boom. Personally I don't think the toothpaste goes back into the tube, but I could also be wrong and end up having to work another decade as a consequence.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
The backtrack on China and Jerome Powell seems to be well received by the market today
MTskibum
Footballguy
I work in Oil and gas on the upstream side. The below report sums our situation up quite well. We have been drilling and a pretty good pace last couple years in expectation of demand rising, now however now that increase in demand is disappearing.
The problem is these companies have invested money in developing these wells and they need the revenue, so they will continue to pump on their existing wells driving the price of oil down even further. This kills the upstream industry, companies don't want to invest when the there is more production than demand.
Oil Market Report - April 2025 – Analysis - IEA
Oil Market Report - April 2025 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.
www.iea.org
Todem
Footballguy
That couldn't be farther from the truth.
There is always going to be winners and losers in a watershed type of "industrial revolution" for lack of a better term. A rising tide raises all ships....until the tide rolls in and lowers again and the strongest ships keep sailing instead of getting beached.
I was in a due diligence conference in Baltimore last October for T.Rowe Price and had the opportunity to be with some of the best money managers and minds in the industry. T.Rowe is a traditionally conservative money manager who does a lot of bottom up due diligence on everything they touch for their shareholders (which is exactly what I do in my own portfolio construction and model construction). The amount of optimism and strong conviction on the next decade of AI was overwhelming. I was able to have several dinners and pick the brains of these stock pickers and money managers and I gathered a ton of intel of where I want my clients to be (Private Credit was a huge addition this year for myself and my high net worth clients as well. Private markets are growing rapidly and they are the future more so than publicly traded companies).
I went overweight on Utilities a couple of years back when the sector hit a 5 year low (knowing what is going to power all these data centers?!), I am now overweight again after this "Tarrif Tantrum" shock wave in the big six (AAPL, AMZN, META, GOOGL, NVDA, MSFT) as these are going to continue to be the big winners long term in the AI revolution. I also picked up smaller infrastructure players and VRT is one of those prized holdings for me as well as PANW, CRM, TTD, VST (Vistra Corp one I have not mentioned here and they are gonna be a big player) CEG etc etc.
One fund manager whom I respect immensely at T Rowe stated in front of 100's of advisers at this due diligence meeting that "AI is the biggest life changing invention since electricity". For this gentlemen to say that with such high conviction got my attention.
Regardless of my personal feelings about the pitfalls we will undoubtedly face with AI replacing humans in many aspects of life.....the fact of the matter is, it is a train that will not be stopped over the next 10-15 years; so my job is to make sure we profit from this generational technology shift.
It's happening, it's gonna change the world (already is) and there will be a lot of money to be made investing in it the "right way".
Will it have periods of correction? Well yeah...look at what just happened 3 weeks ago. That is the buy signal. And we did exactly that. Add when people are running for the exits. Trim when your hairdresser is giving you stock advice.
Sounds simple right? Yet a lot of people keep falling into the same emotional trap.
And look at this market yesterday and today...moving on headlines and a supposed (and likely) incoming pivot to policy.
Again this is going to correct itself here over the next 60 days.....maybe sooner. The media can blur and scream narratives that will make people do terrible things with their money.
Stick to your guns......stay diligent, don't fall into the trap. Keep plowing away on your well diversified portfolio......and everything is going to be ok. Keep your emotions and personal biases out of your money life.
For self directed investors that is really difficult. That has been proven for over 100 years and still going.
So much noise and panic these last 3 weeks........I mean it has been unreal. And that's all this has been. Bad messaging, media pile on, narratives being pushed.......yet the market will always figure this out before the street. All "what if" scenarios pulling the market left and right, up and down. Not fundamentals, not anything like that. Pure noise. Literally you would think the downward move we had was a signal of the great depression coming. Yeah no. I never thought that for a nano second.
Time in the market not "timing" the market.
Words to live by.
I am not raising a victory flag just yet......because I still believe we will whipsaw here for another month or 2. But I am highly confident this will all be worked out sooner rather than later. Then we can move on to normal market conditions based on fundamentals, earnings, inflation data, jobs, housing, interest rates, earnings guidance....you know.....fundamentals. Not giant what if's based on tweets, media blogs and editorial news.
Off my soap box.
Todem
Footballguy
Oil is cyclical and highly sensitive.....I think the demand will ramp up again once we are out of the woods of this Tariff Tantrum.
I work in Oil and gas on the upstream side. The below report sums our situation up quite well. We have been drilling and a pretty good pace last couple years in expectation of demand rising, now however now that increase in demand is disappearing.
The problem is these companies have invested money in developing these wells and they need the revenue, so they will continue to pump on their existing wells driving the price of oil down even further. This kills the upstream industry, companies don't want to invest when the there is more production than demand.
Oil Market Report - April 2025 – Analysis - IEA
Oil Market Report - April 2025 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.
Hang in there.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Our favorite bellwether stock, the seerer of seers, prognosticator of prognosticators, wrecker of global markets, reports next Tuesday 4/29 after the bell.
Scooped up 20 SNAP 1/15/27 15 C at $1.28
I’M GONNA BE RICH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!
Scooped up 20 SNAP 1/15/27 15 C at $1.28
I’M GONNA BE RICH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!
I understand what todem is saying and do not disagree but I will say that a portion of my portfolio is in investments and a decent portion is in trading. These proportions have shifted lately due to world events and overall volatility. So while I agree with "time in the market" for my investments, I'll also say that today is "sell, sell, sell" day on the trading portions.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Thanks for sharing.
I work in Oil and gas on the upstream side. The below report sums our situation up quite well. We have been drilling and a pretty good pace last couple years in expectation of demand rising, now however now that increase in demand is disappearing.
The problem is these companies have invested money in developing these wells and they need the revenue, so they will continue to pump on their existing wells driving the price of oil down even further. This kills the upstream industry, companies don't want to invest when the there is more production than demand.
Oil Market Report - April 2025 – Analysis - IEA
Oil Market Report - April 2025 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.
I read the report and honestly I don't put much stock into it beyond the next 3 months. I remember in 2020 when oil was free and XOM tumbled from $70 to $35. It recovered within a 2 years and 3x'd for the lows in 3 years. The reason I don't put much stock in that report is that there are so many moving parts in your industry and any little skirmish moves the market. It must be tough being in an industry that's not only cyclical, but also global. I assume being nimble is very important in being successful. I hope this is short lived and doesn't ultimately impact you.
Can you elaborate why you are so knowledgeable on AI when I don't see the obvious connections to your industry?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I actually did raise some cash this morning for pullbacks
KGB
Footballguy
I'm locking in gains on trading too today
McBokonon
Footballguy
Of course, the next worry is how he reacts to the inevitable media and investment community barrage constantly calling this a "backtrack."
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Which is why publicly everyone should call it a massive victory
MTskibum
Footballguy
I work in software/data, the application I manage generates and stores most of the detailed engineering and inventory data used for our division. One project that we did years ago was to take this data and use it to predict future product usage using AI on our data.
The problem is that external factors were not considered and the biggest factor to the demand of our products is events happening outside of O/G industry. A better model could be built using this information, it would be AI with human correction. Other divisions in our company are going down that route.
This project was not expensive to do and will be attempted again, however not for a few years based on current O/G conditions.
The problem we face in why we cannot roll out AI faster to help solve other problems is data quality.
My application is a culprit, there are many non-IT savvy people out there and we are not only relying on them to be competent at their job, but also competent at using a complicated proprietary engineering application, often with english not as the users first language.
Without good data in our application, you can't build models on top of it, the way to improve data qualty would be to increase training budget to improve user's competency and increase software budget so we can do better error catching.
I don't see our company investing in the steps to improve data quality.
Todem
Footballguy
Trading is totally different animal......100%
General Malaise
Footballguy
I work in Oil and gas on the upstream side. The below report sums our situation up quite well. We have been drilling and a pretty good pace last couple years in expectation of demand rising, now however now that increase in demand is disappearing.
The problem is these companies have invested money in developing these wells and they need the revenue, so they will continue to pump on their existing wells driving the price of oil down even further. This kills the upstream industry, companies don't want to invest when the there is more production than demand.
Oil Market Report - April 2025 – Analysis - IEA
Oil Market Report - April 2025 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.
Good luck, GB. Very stressful.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I read somewhere that because he isn’t an actual government employee, he is limited to 130 days of work a year for DOGE.
So his pullback is really because he’s approaching that regulatory requirement more than anything else.
Link
Sand
Footballguy
I still have all that XLU. Sitting at +40% and a 3.7% dividend. No hurry to sell that off.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I didn't digest it as a pullback, rather in increase.
McBokonon
Footballguy
He's pretty much ignored Tesla entirely since inauguration, so 1-2 days with DOGE will be a lot less than he has been spending. However, if he really said 1-2 days a year, that indicates a longer overall duration.
So, you're both right, I think.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Who’s buying Tesla today, other than those covering their shorts? That was legit one of the worst earnings reports I’ve ever read from a major company and it’s not getting better any time soon. You can make a case it’s overvalued at 60, let alone 260.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
It’s been overvalued for years. The Tesla cult investors just don’t like the answer.
Absolutely. It is basically a meme stock.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
At least it was growing before. Other than storage and energy credits, the business is now contracting. At 60 it would still have a forward PE of 30-35, higher than any other Mag 7 company.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
At this point, seems like a non-zero chance that the federal government decides to buy a boatload of Teslas for federal vehicles. Even with that it’s still overvalued IMO, but that connection alone could be worth billions. Musk’s companies have largely lived off of federal money to this point anyway.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
The storage and energy credit pillars appear to be in the single digit growth area now.
General Malaise
Footballguy
That's a helluva note....
McBokonon
Footballguy
It's true, though. And just so people don't think this is brought up for political reasons, analysts/investment community and others have reported on this for well over a decade. Many cited it as a reason to stay away because they doubted the company (right or wrong) could survive without them. Here's some articles written well before he became a political lightning rod so that can't get blamed as a motive for writing the articles:
2015 article - Elon Musk’s growing empire is fueled by $4.9 billion in government subsidies
2021 - What ‘regulatory credits’ are — and why they’re so important to Tesla
Americans for Prosperity opinion piece from 2018
There's an endless stream of analyst reports you can visit if you have access from your broker (royal you, not just GM) expressing concerns about the reliance on government.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
That was a nice rip to sell into this morning
General Malaise
Footballguy
Oh, I believed you and knew some of that, but appreciate the links to learn a little more. My comment was, well....the word I might use is 'hypocrisy' and I'll leave it there.
KGB
Footballguy
And I did! Woot!
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
KGB
Footballguy
I was down like 10% from my peak today. Now with all sold. I'm happy.
Now let's see tesla down from $250 tomorrow
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Hold firm. And then slowly walk backwards.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Are they grizzly bears?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Grizzly beariffs!
Very disappointed in myself
Very disappointed in myself
McBokonon
Footballguy
I'm the polar opposite - very proud of you.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I won't tolerate pandarers
Rirruto
Footballguy
Like a lot of other news recently, this is going to cause an increase on auto stocks when people don't really understand what exactly is happening. There's still going to be 25% tariffs on imported autos and 25% imported auto parts. So is this better than before? Yes. Is it ultimately that helpful to the auto industry? I think 25% is enough to stifle a large part of that market.
To me, this seems like the "pause." Market will move on the headline, and then people will see that "oh, a 10% blanket tariff worldwide is still bad." I think that kind of happened today also regarding relaxing hostilities with China.
