So if this plays out like you think and SPY is at $500, you will have to purchase $200,000 in SPY to sell it for $216,000? You have Invested roughly $68 in this?
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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
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Todem
Footballguy
Choppy choppy two weeks ahead.We start seeing those in the next 2-4 weeks in my estimation. All the fluctuations thus far have been on uncertainty, trying to figure out what the heck is going on. Now we are poised for a reaction to the impacts of the decisions that were made. We have estimates that containers are likely to be 60ish% empty in the next coming weeks.
My puts are all later summer to December. They are pricey, but it's fire insurance on a house that's currently ablaze.
The current market is almost entirely propped up by retail investors. This is not some appeal to authority or statement that those with Bloomberg terminals are smarter than those without. But we are virtually guaranteed shortages. Even if all tariffs are reversed tomorrow and all foreign countries immediately go back to their pre-tariff production and trade agreements. My bet is that retail investors will not be able to stomach shortages without a big selloff.
Have dry powder ready!!!
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
$16.80 is actually $1,680 per contract in cash (the $16.80 represents per share, so actual cost is $16.80 x 100). So he has $6800 invested.
He doesn't have to actually purchase the $200k worth of SPY shares. If SPY is at $500 the value of the contracts will have risen, and then he can just sell the contracts at the higher premium to lock in the profits.
Also not that $16k is not the max profit. If the value of SPY falls quickly the value of those 4 contracts could exceed $16k (even if SPY hasn't fallen all the way to $500 yet) depending on how much time is left on the clock.
Somebody eventually ends up with those contracts and has to buy the 100 shares correct?
I understand what you say about the contracts being worth more, but shouldn't they move in lock step with the current price once the strike price is hit?
Risking $6800 on the SPY hitting a new low to make $10,000 seems like an expensive price to pay as in the market feels like the odds of this are pretty significant.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Most options expire without being exercised. They are "options" not "Required" if that helps.
Unstand, but if they are in the money they get exercised correct?
McBokonon
Footballguy
Probably. Depends on what the reason was for buying/selling. Not every option is purchased/sold in order to eventually buy the underlying stock. Some just buy as a hedge or just to speculate.
And by "most" I mean like 70=80% never get exercised.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
No the option price does not move in lock step with the strike price.
Options contracts are an open market just like individual shares themselves and ultimately worth whatever people are willing to pay for them on the open market.
In practice, the price of an options contract boils down essentially to 3 main things.
1) Stock price
2) Time left until expiry
3) Expected movement/volatility
If a stock moves towards the strike price faster than expected, or sentiment/volatility shifts such that larger price movements are expected, the price of the contract can move significantly.
As a basic example, he bought those today with SPY at 550 with 81 days until expiry.
Let's say tomorrow we get another tweet and another one of those Spy -3% days.
Now SPY is at 530 with 80 days until expiry. And sentiment has again shifted more negative on top of that. That is a much more alluring contract that seems much more likely to finish ITM, and probably deeper ITM, so the price of the contract is going to get a lot more expensive, much more than just the amount that the underlying moved. Now people are buying those calls thinking SPY may be $450 or $400 by the time 7/18 rolls around, so they're willing to pay more.
If you're talking about the day of expiry than yes you are correct it generally will line up like you're talking about. There is plenty of volume in SPY so he could wait until the very last minute if he wanted, and still be able to sell those contracts at 99.8% of the value of exercising rather than having to have $200k in cash to exercise and then sell because there are an unlimited number of funds buying shares of SPY that are more than happy to buy a contract 30 seconds before expiry to save 0.2%.
But in practice he probably wouldn't wait until the last minute to sell. If SPY does hit those levels by expiry the contract will likely have been worth quite a bit more than the profits he could make by exercising multiple times throughout the process, including within the last few days.
Most people that buy options contracts to speculate (rather than hedge) sell them long before expiry, and just as a way to leverage into a move that they are speculating on. So if he shorted $6800 worth of SPY shares because he thinks SPY is going to drop 10% over the next month, his returns would be paultry compared to leveraging into $6800 worth of SPY puts, which would make a lot more money if that happened.
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Some good education on options happening here. Those SPY puts have increased in value by about 10% since purchased this morning. Some folks trade options, buying and selling within hours if not minutes. I'd often have no issue selling them today and taking the +10%. As a prior post mentioned, these are almost never held to expiration (I've been trading options for ten years and never exercised a single one). Instead they are closed out well before expiration. The point is leverage. If the SPY moves 1%, then the option tends to move about 10% if it was bought near the money. That fraction the option moves versus the underlying is called "delta" and it is never one-to-one unless you're deep in the money. Near the money, it might be more like 40% to 50% of the move.
Anyway, I did not buy the SPY puts to trade and make a quick buck. I bought them as a hedge against a potential meltdown, a safety net, so I will hold them much longer as protection.
Anyway, I did not buy the SPY puts to trade and make a quick buck. I bought them as a hedge against a potential meltdown, a safety net, so I will hold them much longer as protection.
dancingbones
Footballguy
Great info - I have never bought an option, it has all seemed as "I'm out of my depth" - I appreciate the basics (and beyond) being shared here. 
I'm reminded of a sentence in the criminally underrated Star Wars Episode 8: The Last Jedi where Luke tells Kylo Ren: "Every word of what you just said was wrong." You may want to steer clear of options trading for a while.
That's why I asked the question.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Alphamin Resources: +102% for the last month.
Also Alphamin Resources: -9.04% YTD.
IS THIS FUN OR WHAT!?!?!?!111
Also Alphamin Resources: -9.04% YTD.
IS THIS FUN OR WHAT!?!?!?!111
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Alphamin's for sale. The U.S. would make a deal with the guy living under the I-70 overpass if he claimed to have access to enough mineral resources. Why don't we buy Alphamin, go in and secure the site, thus eliminating the political risk that's holding them back, and profit? How much more are they worth if the instability in the region is no longer a concern? Could probably sell a minority interest and recoup most, if not all, of the upfront investment. There's no way DRC is objecting.Alphamin Resources: +102% for the last month.
Also Alphamin Resources: -9.04% YTD.
IS THIS FUN OR WHAT!?!?!?!111
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Financial Highlights
For the three-month period ended March 31, 2025, Old Dominion reported:
For the three-month period ended March 31, 2025, Old Dominion reported:
- Total revenue of $1.37 billion, a 5.8% decrease from $1.46 billion in Q1 2024.
- Net income of $254.7 million, down 12.9% from $292.3 million in the previous year.
- Diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.19, a decline of 11.2% from $1.34 in Q1 2024.
- Operating income of $338.1 million, a 12.5% decrease from $386.4 million in the same period last year.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
I think it's going to be bigger than a two week window honestly.Choppy choppy two weeks ahead.We start seeing those in the next 2-4 weeks in my estimation. All the fluctuations thus far have been on uncertainty, trying to figure out what the heck is going on. Now we are poised for a reaction to the impacts of the decisions that were made. We have estimates that containers are likely to be 60ish% empty in the next coming weeks.
My puts are all later summer to December. They are pricey, but it's fire insurance on a house that's currently ablaze.
The current market is almost entirely propped up by retail investors. This is not some appeal to authority or statement that those with Bloomberg terminals are smarter than those without. But we are virtually guaranteed shortages. Even if all tariffs are reversed tomorrow and all foreign countries immediately go back to their pre-tariff production and trade agreements. My bet is that retail investors will not be able to stomach shortages without a big selloff.
Have dry powder ready!!!
Sofi with a huge beat. When executing a technical trade do you discount earning news and events taking a stock past a key price level? History says this one will bleed off after earnings.
SoFi SOFI +2.48% ▲ stock soared on Tuesday following the release of the financial services company’s Q1 2025 earnings report. That’s thanks to its adjusted earnings per share of 6 cents, which easily beat Wall Street’s estimate of 3 cents. Its adjusted EPS also surged 200% year-over-year from 2 cents.
Revenue reported by SoFi in Q1 2025 was $771.76 million, surpassing analysts’ $738.98 million estimate. It also grew 20% year-over-year from $645 million. This came alongside record fee-based revenue of $315 million, a 67% increase from Q1 2024. SoFi reported 34% member growth to 10.9 million members and 35% product growth to 15.9 million products, both all-time highs for the company.
The powerful Q1 earnings report spurred SoFi management to increase its guidance for 2025. It now expects EPS of 27 cents to 28 cents, up from its prior estimate of 25 cents to 27 cents. Its revenue estimate for the year ranges from $3.235 to $3.31 billion, compared to its previous outlook of $3.2 billion to $3.275 billion. For the record, Wall Street expects 2025 EPS of 26 cents on revenue of $3.19 billion this year.
SoFi also includes Q2 2025 guidance in its latest earnings report. That includes EPS of 5 cents to 6 cents alongside revenue between $785 million and $805 million.
Revenue reported by SoFi in Q1 2025 was $771.76 million, surpassing analysts’ $738.98 million estimate. It also grew 20% year-over-year from $645 million. This came alongside record fee-based revenue of $315 million, a 67% increase from Q1 2024. SoFi reported 34% member growth to 10.9 million members and 35% product growth to 15.9 million products, both all-time highs for the company.
SoFi 2025 Guidance Update
The powerful Q1 earnings report spurred SoFi management to increase its guidance for 2025. It now expects EPS of 27 cents to 28 cents, up from its prior estimate of 25 cents to 27 cents. Its revenue estimate for the year ranges from $3.235 to $3.31 billion, compared to its previous outlook of $3.2 billion to $3.275 billion. For the record, Wall Street expects 2025 EPS of 26 cents on revenue of $3.19 billion this year.
SoFi also includes Q2 2025 guidance in its latest earnings report. That includes EPS of 5 cents to 6 cents alongside revenue between $785 million and $805 million.
Tariffs snuff out hopes of a busy spring housing market
'We thought we saw a light at the end of the tunnel,' chief economist saysPolicy changes are disrupting the housing market, economists say. (Isaiah Buchanan/CoStar)
By Moira Ritter
April 25, 2025
What had been shaping up to be a blossoming spring housing market is now wilted.
A slew of data about home sales, mortgage rates and consumer behavior were released in the last several days and taken together, the figures painted a gloomier-than-expected picture of where things stand.
Experts gave varied, nuanced explanations for the downturn, but there was one common denominator: tariffs.
At the beginning of April, the White House announced a slate of taxes on imports to the United States. It has since reneged on some of those original tariffs, but even so, trade with many of the country’s biggest partners has gotten more expensive. That’s stirred uncertainty as consumers and businesses alike navigate higher prices in an ever-changing policy environment.
It’s important to note that while the data is reflected in those decisions, much of the data comes at a lag. In other words, it will take time before the full effects of the tariff policy are felt in the housing industry, and it could get worse before it gets better.
Here are the biggest takeaways from the past several days and what the data tells us about the future of the housing market.
Insiders are wary of new home sales
In March, the sale of new houses in the United States was 7.4% higher than the previous month and 6% higher than the same time last year, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.Get the latest residential real estate news delivered straight to your inboxSubscribe to Newsletter
At March’s rate, 724,000 new homes would change hands over the next 12 months.
But analysts and economists warned the tide could change quickly, especially as homebuilders follow through on their promises of higher prices in response to tariffs.
“The stronger pace of sales registered in March is [an] encouraging sign that the new home market was not falling apart ahead of the new tariffs and associated market volatility," Wells Fargo said in a report released Wednesday. "Moving forward, however, significantly reduced policy certainty, the recent bounce in mortgage rates and dimming economic growth prospects stand as formidable headwinds."
Existing home sales fell to their lowest level since March 2009
Sales of pre-owned single-family homes and condos fell 5.9% in March from one month earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. At that pace, 4.02 million houses would trade hands in a 12-month period.It’s the lowest pace of sales since March 2009 — during the Great Recession — and it’s the steepest month-to-month decline since November 2022.
At the same time, the supply of houses on the market rose in March. Compared to the same time a year earlier, there is an almost 20% increase in inventory. Still, that wasn’t enough to lure buyers into the market.
Economists at the NAR and Wells Fargo blamed mortgage rates.
“March's pullback largely reflects ongoing affordability challenges for buyers, in particular the relatively high mortgage rates which prevailed in January and February, when buyers first went under contract,” according to a Wells Fargo report. “Although buyer financing costs temporarily dipped lower in March, mortgage rates have jumped back to near 7% in April alongside recent financial market volatility.”
“It’s a little disappointing, because [earlier this year] we thought we saw a light at the end of the tunnel,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said in discussing the data.
Volatile mortgage rates are pushing buyers to the sidelines
If the effects of tariffs have been immediately visible in any dataset, it is mortgage rates.The last few weeks have been a rollercoaster as rates have bounced between months-long lows and months-long highs.
As of Thursday, though, mortgage rate averages had decreased slightly on a weekly basis. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage eased to 6.83% while the 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage dipped to 5.94%.
Even so, mortgage rates are much higher than they were earlier this year, and that’s keeping buyers at bay, a trend that’s expected to continue.
“With rates now close to 7 percent, many potential borrowers will likely stay on the sidelines until they have a better idea of the direction that rates, and the economy, are headed,” according to Bob Broeksmit, CEO and president of the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
The best part of this is actually Amazon's response, which was essentially, "Don't be ridiculous. We never even considered being completely honest with people."
.
The best part of this is actually Amazon's response, which was essentially, "Don't be ridiculous. We never even considered being completely honest with people."
And just like that, the department of Justice drops all charges
General Malaise
Footballguy
Alphamin's for sale. The U.S. would make a deal with the guy living under the I-70 overpass if he claimed to have access to enough mineral resources. Why don't we buy Alphamin, go in and secure the site, thus eliminating the political risk that's holding them back, and profit? How much more are they worth if the instability in the region is no longer a concern? Could probably sell a minority interest and recoup most, if not all, of the upfront investment. There's no way DRC is objecting.Alphamin Resources: +102% for the last month.
Also Alphamin Resources: -9.04% YTD.
IS THIS FUN OR WHAT!?!?!?!111
I also think they're for sale and we know Abu Dhabi's IRH was kicking the tires in late 2024. The rebel activity couldn't have come at a worse time for this one but cooler heads seem to have prevailed. Alphamin generates $150 Million annually to the region and the DRC in taxes and royalties, so this isn't an unloved orphan in the cradle of resource rich Congo. No matter who ends up controlling the region politically, this company is far too important to disrupt.
But yeah, to the extent the US needs a reliable tin supplier, it wouldn't be a bad idea to at least offer some protection in exchange for material off-take. No doubt China has reached that same conclusion.
Sand
Footballguy
Consumer confidence lowest since October 2011.
Hysterical article. Talks about 2009, COVID, and how this is the worst consumer confidence since Oct. 2011. Scary words around inflation, job worries, etc. Even though inflation is about the same (roughly 3%) and unemployment now is way better - ~8% then, vs 4% now.
And, AND, they forget to look at the markets to see what the markets looked like after Oct. 2011. Maroons. (Go have a look - it's salivating at 8.5% per year for the last 14 years).
I'll take Oct. 2011 as a start point any day of the week. Hell, I'd retire today if I knew history was going to repeat or even have the same flavor.
Hysterical article. Talks about 2009, COVID, and how this is the worst consumer confidence since Oct. 2011. Scary words around inflation, job worries, etc. Even though inflation is about the same (roughly 3%) and unemployment now is way better - ~8% then, vs 4% now.
And, AND, they forget to look at the markets to see what the markets looked like after Oct. 2011. Maroons. (Go have a look - it's salivating at 8.5% per year for the last 14 years).
I'll take Oct. 2011 as a start point any day of the week. Hell, I'd retire today if I knew history was going to repeat or even have the same flavor.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Seems overly harsh. It's just the results of a consumer confidence survey. It's not like it's some editorial opinion piece with someone making projections.
The survey results basically said that respondents think there is a high likelihood that unemployment and inflation will rise over the next year. Which is the same sentiment pretty everyone in here has.
Sentiment is very low right now. I don't think anyone is disputing that. Information is more pervasive and the news hits faster, so people react more bigly. The question remains whether we're putting the cart before the horse. Do we just have more info now and are able to better predict future problems with demand and employment, or are we over-projecting and pricing in things that may not materialize.
It also illustrates a huge disconnect because sentiment is down WAY more than the actual markets (which are basically all the way back up to flat since the tariff announcement mini-crash).
Sand
Footballguy
It's financial shock porn, IMO.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Exactly this. This is a report on what people are saying/believe.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Seems like an awful lot of, "We're pushing this back to the states" coming from this administration. If they claw back the federal guarantee of 90% payment for the medicaid expansion and push it even to 80-20 or 70-30, that 10-20% increase isn't going to be doable for some states. Regardless of how they do it, they're going to pass this budget, and something is going to have to give in one of the medic-s.
What kinds of additional impacts we might see from all of this? And I mean from an investment opportunity perspective. Any positives here? Who wins and who loses (besides the people) when states drop medicaid coverage? Or try to take on more than they can afford to finance. The UNHs of the world?
What kinds of additional impacts we might see from all of this? And I mean from an investment opportunity perspective. Any positives here? Who wins and who loses (besides the people) when states drop medicaid coverage? Or try to take on more than they can afford to finance. The UNHs of the world?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I'm still shuked by their inability to monetize.
McBokonon
Footballguy
One of my first thoughts would be something like CVS with their minute clinics?
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Big hospitals with a large presence in dense urban areas. People will be pushed to emergency rooms.
KGB
Footballguy
Vertiv (VRT) Stock Price, News & Analysis
Should You Buy or Sell Vertiv Stock? Get The Latest VRT Stock Analysis, Price Target, Dividend Info, Headlines, and Short Interest at MarketBeat.
KGB
Footballguy
Looks like it might boom. Trading offered at night at least on Robin hood.Vertiv (VRT) Stock Price, News & Analysis
Should You Buy or Sell Vertiv Stock? Get The Latest VRT Stock Analysis, Price Target, Dividend Info, Headlines, and Short Interest at MarketBeat.www.marketbeat.com
Current price $85.80
The Z Machine
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
Looks like it might boom. Trading offered at night at least on Robin hood.Vertiv (VRT) Stock Price, News & Analysis
Should You Buy or Sell Vertiv Stock? Get The Latest VRT Stock Analysis, Price Target, Dividend Info, Headlines, and Short Interest at MarketBeat.
Current price $85.80
That’s not a stock moving event. It’s a small purchase and it happened last quarter. That article looks like an AI-generated release that just scanned 13F’s, which are reports institutions file quarterly to disclose activity.
It's only -1.33%. Merely a flesh wound.
McBokonon
Footballguy
It's only -1.33%. Merely a flesh wound.
Yep. Does seem like this could be the beginning of the next big flush, though.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
All we've seen so far is the impacts of uncertainty. When reality hits and people see the objective impacts, buying opportunities are going to be abundant.It's only -1.33%. Merely a flesh wound.
Yep. Does seem like this could be the beginning of the next big flush, though.
Do as you wish, of course, but I'm with McB that this could be the beginning of the next downtrend so we may be at the very front end of this next stage as we sink into a recession.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I always price my exit too high and then it never gets there. So I have like 5% powder left...All we've seen so far is the impacts of uncertainty. When reality hits and people see the objective impacts, buying opportunities are going to be abundant.It's only -1.33%. Merely a flesh wound.
Yep. Does seem like this could be the beginning of the next big flush, though.
Could be. PLTR will be a nibble. Based solely of technical analysis, SoFi should bounce back.
What's funny is the bears I've been following turned short term bullish over the last few days.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Remember when SOFI had great earnings?
