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So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.
I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.
I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....


WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

Unless he's just dying to get into a house through purchase, maybe the best course of action would be to hole-up in a short-term rental (as if those are easy to find) and wait this one out? I think we see home prices dip, especially since the 'buying season' is getting off to a sluggish start.

The FED is in a tough spot with rates. Having your job threatened if you don't lower them is uncomfortable but god help him if he lowers and inflation spikes. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. If the Simpsons taught me anything (and I'd like to believe that they have) it's that this is called a "Paradox".
Funny you should say that. He's looking for someone to do a "rent to own" sort of thing for the next year.
Unless Florida is different, there is no such thing as a "rent to own". Usually it's a lease with an option to buy where you pay some consideration to the owner for the option to buy during a given time frame. In my state, this option has to be recorded for it to be binding.
Believe it's similar there. He'd offer a monthly payment asking for part of it to go to closing costs. He can also offer some lump sum as evidence of his commitment etc.
Just have him check with a real estate attorney. Lots of scammers in that field. The NC Real Estate Commission bans agents from being involved with those.
You mean beyond his loan officer and agent?
I may be misunderstanding the situation if he has these two professionals involved. That said, if he's paying any type of significant consideration for a potential future purchase or paying rent significantly above market rate he should probably run the transaction details by a real estate attorney for his protection.
 
So tempting to dump and take profits. Problem is many of these companies have a pathway to double or triple up over the next 3-5 years. May look into 3x bear funds as a hedge.
 
I'm sitting on 100 shares of Indie Semiconductor. It's down to $2. I'm sure this was a SPAC once upon a time. Does anyone know anything about this company? Any hope for recovery? Seems stupid to sell for so little but I don't need it cluttering up my page with a dozen other stocks that have gone to zero.
 
I may be misunderstanding the situation if he has these two professionals involved. That said, if he's paying any type of significant consideration for a potential future purchase or paying rent significantly above market rate he should probably run the transaction details by a real estate attorney for his protection.
Yeah, he's not out there gun slinging this thing. Appreciate the info though. I passed it along.
 
Shares of Tesla fell as much as 3% in overnight trading on Robinhood following reports that its board has opened a search for a chief executive to succeed Elon Musk.

The move comes as the electric vehicle giant’s sales and profits have been declining rapidly.

Interesting - Tesla is clearly not his focus and if this were any other company and CEO he would have been removed already. At the same time he has done so much there and such a driving force I don’t think they can realistically find a good replacement.
Agree. Tesla is Elon. Without him its a way overvalued car company.

He can design another cybertuck.

Still not as impressive as zuck wasting 15 billion on second life 2.
 
Shares of Tesla fell as much as 3% in overnight trading on Robinhood following reports that its board has opened a search for a chief executive to succeed Elon Musk.

The move comes as the electric vehicle giant’s sales and profits have been declining rapidly.

Interesting - Tesla is clearly not his focus and if this were any other company and CEO he would have been removed already. At the same time he has done so much there and such a driving force I don’t think they can realistically find a good replacement.
I'll bet Sam Altman would take it.
 
*checks notes*

"Buy Amazon, dummy"
-BnB
If I hadn't been stuck in continuing ED I would have considered at $181. It was priced for a bigger beat IMO. I did unload my margin shares at $190 this morning that I had purchased at $183 as I expected an earnings dip. They were that fake Fidelity margin, not real margin but I don't like seeing the "margin" tag next to them.
 
Reports Q1 revenue $1.17B, consensus $1.14B. “Twilio (TWLO) saw another quarter of revenue growth acceleration and double-digit growth, illustrating that our commitment to operating with more discipline, rigor, and focus is paying off,” said Khozema Shipchandler, CEO of Twilio. “I’m encouraged by the momentum we’ve established to start the year. Going forward, we’ll continue to focus on what’s in our control and will deliver further innovation on behalf of our customers who rely on Twilio to drive amazing experiences for their end users.”
 
So, I found about $600 in my robinhood account. about all that was left after losing ALOT on stocks and mostly crypto longshots.


Current situation...
Started with about $600
1 month--- up 1693.84% - so about $9500

Current bets...
66 VRT shares cost $86.64

options--------
WOLF - $4 call....50 contracts at .14 exp 5-02
VRT - 90CALL - $3.50 exp 05-09
BULL - $12.5 putt --cost .85 15 contracts
VRT $87 call $5.45 exp 5-16
VRT $88 call cost $7.15 exp 5-30
WOLF $4 call....10 contracts .99------exp 9/19

just to follow along :)
I am now at $12000 after some buys and sells.

I currently sit with like
7 VRT calls between $87 and $95. Worth around $10000 of my $12k

And 2 tsla puts for the last $2k

Wish me luck 💪😎
 
I've taken a beating on this one (Fulgent) but this may be the best balance sheet ever.

  • Core Revenue of $73.5 million grows 16% year-over-year
  • Reiterating Full Year 2025 Core Revenue Guidance of $310 million
  • Non-GAAP income of $1.2 million, or $0.04 per share; GAAP loss of $11.5 million, or ($0.37) per share
  • Ended Q1 with $814.6 million of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and investments in marketable securities, representing cash per share of $26.60

Purchased back about 1.6% of it's share last quarter. Obviously makes since as people were giving them a share and $8 for $17.
 
Big props to @Todem for putting VRT on my radar. Just had to sell another chunk as it keeps growing and getting over 4% of my portfolio. Now up 27% on the remaining shares.

Echo this I’m up 60.50% on VRT.

I read his comment and thought what the hell. I did 5 minutes of research and bought. Works for me back in the day for CYDY. Haha
 
VRT (and CLS, and KTOS) is taking the sting out of AAPL losses. But still, oof.
It’s been a long time since AAPL has had this kinda swoon to the downside. And while fundamentally it is still expensive based kn esrnings growth and some manufacturing headwinds long term it should turn itself around.

But by no means do I think this represents any value here.

Strong hold is how I would advise and when it does rally down the line to its recent highs (and will probably take a while) if you are overweight in it like so many are who have held for the last 15-20 years (21 years for me) trimming it would be wise and use those proceeds for better growth stocks.

AAPL’s divdend is blech and their big growth phase IMO is over. They are more of a staple to me with a crappy dividend and they have not truly innovated much.

A true mega cap stalwart that to me is not something we need to be overweighted in at all and the money can be used elsewhere for either better growth or income.

Heck I have been writing covered calls a lot on this one to enhance the dividend.

Anyway.
 
VRT (and CLS, and KTOS) is taking the sting out of AAPL losses. But still, oof.
It’s been a long time since AAPL has had this kinda swoon to the downside. And while fundamentally it is still expensive based kn esrnings growth and some manufacturing headwinds long term it should turn itself around.

But by no means do I think this represents any value here.

Strong hold is how I would advise and when it does rally down the line to its recent highs (and will probably take a while) if you are overweight in it like so many are who have held for the last 15-20 years (21 years for me) trimming it would be wise and use those proceeds for better growth stocks.

AAPL’s divdend is blech and their big growth phase IMO is over. They are more of a staple to me with a crappy dividend and they have not truly innovated much.

A true mega cap stalwart that to me is not something we need to be overweighted in at all and the money can be used elsewhere for either better growth or income.

Heck I have been writing covered calls a lot on this one to enhance the dividend.

Anyway.
Would love to do this, but I'm terrified of the tax hit should something spike it and they get called. I started donating them to avoid the cap gain and decided not to replace shares this time (thanks to sand for the reminder).
 
Apple has definitely stagnated on innovation. Here's my darkhorse for a surprise Apple innovation some time in the near future.

You all know the apple vision pro. The things that it can do with AR are pretty sick. But the downside is you have to wear this monstrosity of a headset that is not feasible to wear in real life, and also comes with $3000 of compute power crammed into it.

Then on the flipside, you have the Even Realities G1. They're just like regular glasses, but with OLED screens on the inside to overlay AR stuff. All of the processing is offloaded to your phone in your pocket, which allows them to be the same size as normal glasses and cost like 600 bucks. But the problem with these is it's some random company that has no software experience so there's not much you can do with them other than overlay some teleprompter text or overlay maps directions, which barely works.

Feels like a very easy solution for Apple to come out with "Apple Vision Glasses" or something that combines the two. Apple's already existing high end AR software, on a pair of glasses with screens on them where all of the processing is offloaded to the iPhone in your pocket. And I would with them having control over the ecosystem and the hardware of both devices (compared to competitors) they could make the connection to the phone a little smoother.
 
I've taken a beating on this one (Fulgent) but this may be the best balance sheet ever.

  • Core Revenue of $73.5 million grows 16% year-over-year
  • Reiterating Full Year 2025 Core Revenue Guidance of $310 million
  • Non-GAAP income of $1.2 million, or $0.04 per share; GAAP loss of $11.5 million, or ($0.37) per share
  • Ended Q1 with $814.6 million of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and investments in marketable securities, representing cash per share of $26.60

Purchased back about 1.6% of it's share last quarter. Obviously makes since as people were giving them a share and $8 for $17.
A lot of us made a lot off this one during the pandemic. I kept a few shares just to keep an eye on them. Nice pop today. They have burned through about $200M in cash the past few years, though. They were over $1B coming out of the pandemic iirc.
 

AAPL’s divdend is blech and their big growth phase IMO is over. They are more of a staple to me with a crappy dividend and they have not truly innovated much.
Speaking of dividends, do we have any idea why NVDA pays a $0.01/share dividend? Maybe some tax break? I mean, literally zero people are buying this because of the .04% yield.
 

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