Stock Thread (244 Viewers)

[Desert_Power]

Hasn't Ford stock traded between $2 and $20 for the last 30 years? What's the inducement to invest in this one? I've never been even remotely interested in owning Ford stock. Ever.

Why own any car company.

Because BYD exists?

 

[KGB]

Buying Palantir on the dip. Beat revenue and raised guidance...down 9%.

I mean 9% off puts it into ridiculous valuation from the previous insane valuation.

Is this like an offdee ranking for stocks?

Insane: Valuation is very rare. Could be a top growth stock, meme stock, or culty SPAC (globally overvalued, the TSLA of stock valuations)

Ridiculous: The hottest stock this quarter, the hottest stock at WSB, the one your Uber driver is asking you about, etc (more retail hyped)

Crazy: One of the hotter stocks this week, the hot new name at the golf club (Wall Street's rising stars). Not your main squeeze, but maybe a short squeeze.

Overvalued: A market beater that had blown the top off but is likely to come back to earth. The float you want but not the moat you need.

A little overweight: Fairly attractive pricing, no major flaws but maybe minor ones (no, I didn't really change this category at all. Lol)

Fairly valued: Starting to be unattractive, but some qualities may work in its favor. Nothing major, but minor downside is more common

Loser: Not attractive. Major flaws start piling up (Bad CEO, market saturation, excessive debt)

Value stock: Unloved name currently. Face planted but could become a winner with a little love. Solid long-term name. Stock you might find on your geriatric online forum. More classically hot. Might work its way onto a todem list.

Value trap: One of the uglier stocks in your portfolio. Oversized position you can't exit. Valuation seems reasonable but no growth prospects.

Pig: Absolutely disgusting and should be avoided at all costz. Young children point and investors look away upon seeing. Not one single redeeming quality. Penny stocks. Bankruptcies waiting to happen. $AMC. $F, per GM.

If you put examples this post would be gold.

Do it!

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

I'm not touting F...I'm pointing out that an institution of American commerce cannot provide guidance.

 

[General Malaise]

Hasn't Ford stock traded between $2 and $20 for the last 30 years? What's the inducement to invest in this one? I've never been even remotely interested in owning Ford stock. Ever.

It’s a dividend stock - although there’s far better ones.

I owned two Ford Explorers. One was a solid ride, nice looking, no problems, sun roof. Sold it to a fella in the neighborhood in 2009 for $3K. He still drives it.

The other was a horrendous POS. The alarm would go off while driving it. Felt like it would lose parts going over speed bumps. Was half tempted to push it into the Willamette just to give it a permanent home with wayward shopping carts and human feces.

How can one car company make two of the same cars so differently?

 

[Sparky Polastri]

I think the market is acting like they're all going to get rolled back and/or forgotten.

This is what I think too. I guess we'll see in a couple weeks when the realities start hitting and people see the tangible impacts. I have my doubts that they don't panic.

 

[General Malaise]

Ouch, VRTX.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Pharmaceuticals as a whole getting smacked today

 

[Runkle]

Hasn't Ford stock traded between $2 and $20 for the last 30 years? What's the inducement to invest in this one? I've never been even remotely interested in owning Ford stock. Ever.

It’s a dividend stock - although there’s far better ones.

I owned two Ford Explorers. One was a solid ride, nice looking, no problems, sun roof. Sold it to a fella in the neighborhood in 2009 for $3K. He still drives it.

The other was a horrendous POS. The alarm would go off while driving it. Felt like it would lose parts going over speed bumps. Was half tempted to push it into the Willamette just to give it a permanent home with wayward shopping carts and human feces.

How can one car company make two of the same cars so differently?

Ford isn't a car company. Ford is a bank.

 

[General Malaise]

Hasn't Ford stock traded between $2 and $20 for the last 30 years? What's the inducement to invest in this one? I've never been even remotely interested in owning Ford stock. Ever.

It’s a dividend stock - although there’s far better ones.

I owned two Ford Explorers. One was a solid ride, nice looking, no problems, sun roof. Sold it to a fella in the neighborhood in 2009 for $3K. He still drives it.

The other was a horrendous POS. The alarm would go off while driving it. Felt like it would lose parts going over speed bumps. Was half tempted to push it into the Willamette just to give it a permanent home with wayward shopping carts and human feces.

How can one car company make two of the same cars so differently?

Ford isn't a car company. Ford is a bank.

I bet their bank pens fall apart too.

 

[McBokonon]

I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.

 

[Slumpbusters]

Check out MSTY - dividend fund that tracks bitcoin.

MSTY day is coming up May 8th. To get the dividend, you have to be a stockholder by 5/8.

It is slated to pay a $1.34/share dividend this month. That's basically a free 5.4% on your money. You can turn around and sell it as soon as the dividend hits your account, then rinse and repeat next month.

My buddy turned me on to this a couple months ago, and our little stock group has cashed in 2 months running.

It helps if the stock goes up too, but even if it loses a point or two in the short term, you are still money ahead.

 

[General Malaise]

I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.

It's the Phoenix Suns of stocks.

 

[dancingbones]

Check out MSTY - dividend fund that tracks bitcoin.

MSTY day is coming up May 8th. To get the dividend, you have to be a stockholder by 5/8.

It is slated to pay a $1.34/share dividend this month. That's basically a free 5.4% on your money. You can turn around and sell it as soon as the dividend hits your account, then rinse and repeat next month.

My buddy turned me on to this a couple months ago, and our little stock group has cashed in 2 months running.

It helps if the stock goes up too, but even if it loses a point or two in the short term, you are still money ahead.

I'll give it a whirl - thanks! How do you know when the upcoming ex-dividend dates will be ongoingly?

Edit: answered my own question - looks like it is every 4 weeks.

YieldMax™ ETFs Announces Distributions on MSTY ($2.2792), SMCY ($1.7215), SQY ($0.6338), YMAX ($0.1118), YMAG ($0.0500) and Others

YieldMax™ ETFs Announces Distributions on MSTY ($2.2792), SMCY ($1.7215), SQY ($0.6338), YMAX ($0.1118), YMAG ($0.0500) and Others...

www.globenewswire.com

 

[fruity pebbles]

Check out MSTY - dividend fund that tracks bitcoin.

MSTY day is coming up May 8th. To get the dividend, you have to be a stockholder by 5/8.

It is slated to pay a $1.34/share dividend this month. That's basically a free 5.4% on your money. You can turn around and sell it as soon as the dividend hits your account, then rinse and repeat next month.

My buddy turned me on to this a couple months ago, and our little stock group has cashed in 2 months running.

It helps if the stock goes up too, but even if it loses a point or two in the short term, you are still money ahead.

Yeah……that’s not how dividends work. It not free money. The share price goes down by the amount of the dividend. The yieldmax ETFs aren’t really dividends anyways. Most of it is a distribution.

 

[BassNBrew]

I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.

Guy on right shoulder says cut bait.

Guy on left should says collect more dimes.

In for another 200 shares.

 

[Todem]

Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Sounds like a put sell right here

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It is slated to pay a $1.34/share dividend this month. That's basically a free 5.4% on your money. You can turn around and sell it as soon as the dividend hits your account, then rinse and repeat next month.

Be careful you’re not actually losing money on this with the buys and sells.

 

[General Malaise]

If I had some cash, I might consider VRTX down here. The earnings wasn't THAT BAD and the future is still incredibly bright. They're also not hurting for cash (11.4B) and raised guidance. Stock off 11% today. Price targets all over the map but Goldman Sachs adjusted theirs to $621. I usually ignore analysts' PTs but this would be pretty tasty if it happened. Currently $443.

 

[Todem]

Sounds like a put sell right here

Yes….smart move. I would go at least 20% out of the money….at least. Maybe go ahead and buy half your intended position today and sell 25-30% out of the mkney put for the other half…..if the premium is juicy.

 

[Stoneworker]

Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.

So now valuation matters?

I thought the formula was "scoop up quality stocks now" because "no one cares what happens in 5-7-10 years."

Remember: Time in the market, not time the market

 

[General Malaise]

Oh.....well then.

 

[BassNBrew]

Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.

So now valuation matters?

I thought the formula was "scoop up quality stocks now" because "no one cares what happens in 5-7-10 years."

Remember: Time in the market, not time the market

It's always mattered with Todem. He specifically mentioned scooping up quality stocks because the valuation was at decades low. The no one will care comment related to buying 20% to early. It was more important to get into the market with your cash if you were a long term investor than trying to time the bottom.

 

[Stoneworker]

Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.

So now valuation matters?

I thought the formula was "scoop up quality stocks now" because "no one cares what happens in 5-7-10 years."

Remember: Time in the market, not time the market

It's always mattered with Todem. He specifically mentioned scooping up quality stocks because the valuation was at decades low. The no one will care comment related to buying 20% to early. It was more important to get into the market with your cash if you were a long term investor than trying to time the bottom.

Valuations may have been off their highs but by no means are/were they at "decades low."

For example, MSFT's current P/E is 35.15x, and while in 2017-18 it was higher at >40, in 2022 it was lower at 24.5x and from 2010-15 it was lower still at 10-15x. The S&P at 26.87 is similarly high by historical standards.

And if you're looking at risk/return, then S&P earnings yield at 3.7% is nowhere near historically cheap relative to the 10-year currently at 4.3%.

Besides, if you are "scooping up stocks" because the valuations are perceived to be low, then almost by definition that is timing the market. Which blows the whole "time in market, not market timing" sermonizing out of the water.

 

[BassNBrew]

Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.

So now valuation matters?

I thought the formula was "scoop up quality stocks now" because "no one cares what happens in 5-7-10 years."

Remember: Time in the market, not time the market

It's always mattered with Todem. He specifically mentioned scooping up quality stocks because the valuation was at decades low. The no one will care comment related to buying 20% to early. It was more important to get into the market with your cash if you were a long term investor than trying to time the bottom.

Valuations may have been off their highs but by no means are/were they at "decades low."

For example, MSFT's current P/E is 35.15x, and while in 2017-18 it was higher at >40, in 2022 it was lower at 24.5x and from 2010-15 it was lower still at 10-15x. The S&P at 26.87 is similarly high by historical standards.

And if you're looking at risk/return, then S&P earnings yield at 3.7% is nowhere near historically cheap relative to the 10-year currently at 4.3%.

Besides, if you are "scooping up stocks" because the valuations are perceived to be low, then almost by definition that is timing the market. Which blows the whole "time in market, not market timing" sermonizing out of the water.

Microsoft was at 29 at the time and that was before this announcement....

REDMOND, Wash. — April 30, 2025 — Microsoft Corp. today announced the following results for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, as compared to the corresponding period of last fiscal year:

• Revenue was $70.1 billion and increased 13% (up 15% in constant currency)
• Operating income was $32.0 billion and increased 16% (up 19% in constant currency)
• Net income was $25.8 billion and increased 18% (up 19% in constant currency)
• Diluted earnings per share was $3.46 and increased 18% (up 19% in constant currency)

I'm not buying Microsoft now, I added it when it was on sale.

 

[BassNBrew]

AMD....the street yawns but this is exacting what I was hoping for...major growth. I'm currently weighted 2 to 1 AMD to Nvidia. This also confirms the previous reports that the data center spend is increasing.

Advanced Micro Devices reported first fiscal-quarter earnings on Tuesday that topped expectations, and provided a strong forecast for current-quarter revenue.

Shares of AMD rose 3% in extended trading.




Here’s how the chipmaker did versus LSEG expectations for the quarter that ended March 29:

• Earnings per share: 96 cents adjusted vs. 94 cents expected
• Revenue: $7.44 billion vs. $7.13 billion expected

For the current quarter, AMD expects about $7.4 billion in sales with a gross margin of 43%, versus Wall Street estimates for earnings of 86 cents adjusted on $7.25 billion in sales.

AMD CEO Lisa Su said that the company achieved its first-quarter results despite grappling regulations on advanced AI chip exports. The company’s forecast also included $800 million in costs that the company said it would incur because the U.S. limited the export of some of the company’s artificial intelligence chips during the quarter.

AMD said it also faced some challenges related to tariffs.

“While we face some headwinds from the dynamic macro and regulatory environments, including the recently announced export controls for Instinct MI308X shipments to China, we believe they are more than offset by the powerful tailwinds from our leadership product portfolio,” Su said on an earnings call with analysts.


The company reported net income of $709 million, or 44 cents per diluted share, versus net income of $123 million, or 7 cents per share, during the year-earlier period. Revenue grew 36% on an annual basis.

AMD is the second-place server central processing unit vendor, behind Intel, but its Epyc line of processors has been taking market share in recent years.

The company is also the closest competitor to Nvidia for “big GPUs,” or graphics processing units. Those are the kind of chips that are deployed in data centers by the thousands for building generative AI. It did $5 billion in AI GPU sales in the company’s fiscal 2024.

Both are reported in the company’s data center segment, which came in at $3.7 billion in sales, topping a StreetAccount estimate. Data center sales were up 57% on an annual basis, which the company attributed to demand for both Epyc processors and Instinct GPUs.

Su told investors on an earnings call that AMD’s chips are being used to train AI. She also said a major AI model developer is using AMD chips to deploy their service, a process called inference.

“The depth and breadth of our customer engagements continues to expand as breakthroughs in large-scale AI models like OpenAI’s 03 and DeepSeek R1 drive increased demand,” Su said.

The company’s other major segment, Client and Gaming, includes chips for consumer devices such as laptops, gaming PCs and game consoles. The overall segment rose 28% on an annual basis to $2.9 billion. AMD said sales for its laptop and PC chips, which it calls client revenue, surged 68% year over year because of strong demand for chips called Zen 5 that the company released last summer.

Gaming sales, however, declined 30% on an annual basis, which the company attributed to a decrease in console chip revenue.

AMD’s embedded segment, which is mostly sales from the company’s 2022 acquisition of Xilinx, declined 3% on an annual basis to $823 million.

 

[Schmeabs]

Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.

So now valuation matters?

I thought the formula was "scoop up quality stocks now" because "no one cares what happens in 5-7-10 years."

Remember: Time in the market, not time the market

It's always mattered with Todem. He specifically mentioned scooping up quality stocks because the valuation was at decades low. The no one will care comment related to buying 20% to early. It was more important to get into the market with your cash if you were a long term investor than trying to time the bottom.

Valuations may have been off their highs but by no means are/were they at "decades low."

For example, MSFT's current P/E is 35.15x, and while in 2017-18 it was higher at >40, in 2022 it was lower at 24.5x and from 2010-15 it was lower still at 10-15x. The S&P at 26.87 is similarly high by historical standards.

And if you're looking at risk/return, then S&P earnings yield at 3.7% is nowhere near historically cheap relative to the 10-year currently at 4.3%.

Besides, if you are "scooping up stocks" because the valuations are perceived to be low, then almost by definition that is timing the market. Which blows the whole "time in market, not market timing" sermonizing out of the water.

I think your numbers are wrong. S&P earnings in 2024 were $250, not $208 as you are implying. That is a big difference. Even if we assume no growth in earnings in 2025 that puts the current PE at 22.4, not 26.87. With interest rates still relatively low you can justify a slightly higher than normal PE. However, the equity risk premium is not nearly as attractive as 3-4 years ago when rates were so low.

 

[Stoneworker]

Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.

So now valuation matters?

I thought the formula was "scoop up quality stocks now" because "no one cares what happens in 5-7-10 years."

Remember: Time in the market, not time the market

It's always mattered with Todem. He specifically mentioned scooping up quality stocks because the valuation was at decades low. The no one will care comment related to buying 20% to early. It was more important to get into the market with your cash if you were a long term investor than trying to time the bottom.

Valuations may have been off their highs but by no means are/were they at "decades low."

For example, MSFT's current P/E is 35.15x, and while in 2017-18 it was higher at >40, in 2022 it was lower at 24.5x and from 2010-15 it was lower still at 10-15x. The S&P at 26.87 is similarly high by historical standards.

And if you're looking at risk/return, then S&P earnings yield at 3.7% is nowhere near historically cheap relative to the 10-year currently at 4.3%.

Besides, if you are "scooping up stocks" because the valuations are perceived to be low, then almost by definition that is timing the market. Which blows the whole "time in market, not market timing" sermonizing out of the water.

I think your numbers are wrong. S&P earnings in 2024 were $250, not $208 as you are implying. That is a big difference. Even if we assume no growth in earnings in 2025 that puts the current PE at 22.4, not 26.87. With interest rates still relatively low you can justify a slightly higher than normal PE. However, the equity risk premium is not nearly as attractive as 3-4 years ago when rates were so low.

I don't think so.

S&P 500 earnings for 2024 were $212 according to the below source (which in turn uses S&P Global for raw data). The current 26.87 (26.64 at COB) is based on those 2024 earnings, not 2025 forward so as to provide more meaningful historical comparisons.

Personally, I don't see how anyone can make any useful assumptions about forward 2025 P/E's in the current environment and with so many companies pulling guidance

Multpl - Market, financial, and economic data

Long term charts and financial metrics that give you insight into the market and the economy.

www.multpl.com

ETA: GuruFocus and MacroTrends corroborate the above earnings and P/Es with similar data

https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/58/sp-500-earnings-per-share

S&P 500 Earnings - 90 Year Historical Chart

This interactive chart compares the S&P 500 index with its trailing twelve month earnings per share (EPS) value back to 1926.

www.macrotrends.net

 

[Orange&Blue]

How will India/Pakistan "situation" impact things?

 

[Sand]

Hey CEG, how you doin'?

 

[General Malaise]

How will India/Pakistan "situation" impact things?

Our markets? Next to no impact. Look, I doubt 97% of Americans could locate Pakistan on a map. That's probably generous of me. And how many of us - even in here - knew what you were asking without going to Google?

Those two countries have hated each other forever. Two different religions fighting over the same territory. Sound familiar? Did markets panic after Oct. 7?

 

[Capella]

I don’t think there’s any chance 3% of Americans could find Pakistan on a map. I don’t think even 10% have even heard of it.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

How will India/Pakistan "situation" impact things?

Our markets? Next to no impact. Look, I doubt 97% of Americans could locate Pakistan on a map. That's probably generous of me. And how many of us - even in here - knew what you were asking without going to Google?

Those two countries have hated each other forever. Two different religions fighting over the same territory. Sound familiar? Did markets panic after Oct. 7?

All the Zeppelin fans here know where Kashmir is, so ergo...

 

[General Malaise]

Pakistan is one of the world's best and biggest manufacturers of........



Soccer balls. Actually true.

 

[BassNBrew]

I don’t think there’s any chance 3% of Americans could find Pakistan on a map. I don’t think even 10% have even heard of it.

Map, since when is an Amazon shipping ap on a map.

 

[fatness]

The first boats carrying Chinese goods with 145% tariffs are arriving in LA. Shipments are cut in half. Expect shortages soon

Imports from China have fallen dramatically since Trump imposed steep tariffs – particularly since last month, when the ***-for-tat trade war sent the tariff on most Chinese goods up to 145%. “This week, we’re down about 35% compared to the same time last year, and these cargo ships coming in are the first ones to be attached to the tariffs that were levied against China and other locations last month,” Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, told CNN Tuesday. “That’s why the cargo volume is so light.”

The drop-off in imports from China on the boats now coming into port is more than 50%, Seroka said. Many importers have canceled previous orders because US businesses aren’t interested in paying the steep tariff, which can more than double the price of Chinese goods. The Port of LA had expected 80 ships to arrive in May, but 20% of those have been canceled, Seroka said. Customers have already canceled 13 sailings for June. “And you still don’t know how long this is going to last,” Seroka warned. “Retailers and importers alike are telling me that the products now cost about two and a half times more than they did just last month.”

Rather than import goods to the United States, some retailers are choosing to pay to store their products in Chinese warehouses because it’s cheaper than paying the tariff, according to Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, a logistics and freight forwarding broker. With importers and retailers unwilling to pay the steep cost, deliveries could continue to fall – as much as 60%, said Petersen. Consumers will start to notice very soon. ”A 60% decline in containers means 60% less stuff arriving,” Petersen told CNN’s Pamela Brown Tuesday. “It’s only a matter of time before they sell through existing inventory, and then you’ll see shortages. And that’s when you see price hikes.” Imports into the United States during the second half of 2025 are expected to fall at least 20% year over year, according to the National Retail Federation. The decline from China will be even starker: JP Morgan expects a 75% to 80% drop in imports from there. In the meantime, Americans are continuing to buy goods that were previously warehoused in the United States. But those stockpiles are starting to run out.

 

[General Malaise]

I've seen this article a few times.

What should we stock up on?

 

[The Z Machine]

I've seen this article a few times.

What should we stock up on?

Corn

Bitcorn that is

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

I've seen this article a few times.

What should we stock up on?

Ibuprofen

 

[Todem]

Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.

So now valuation matters?

I thought the formula was "scoop up quality stocks now" because "no one cares what happens in 5-7-10 years."

Remember: Time in the market, not time the market

It's always mattered with Todem. He specifically mentioned scooping up quality stocks because the valuation was at decades low. The no one will care comment related to buying 20% to early. It was more important to get into the market with your cash if you were a long term investor than trying to time the bottom.

I have him on ignore Bass……he has no idea who I am….what I do and how long I have been doing it and I want to keep it that way.

He is clearly trying to troll me….let him spew his rhetoric…..meantime those who know….know and can continue to profit from friendly well timed advice.

Carry on.

 

[Stoneworker]

Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.

So now valuation matters?

I thought the formula was "scoop up quality stocks now" because "no one cares what happens in 5-7-10 years."

Remember: Time in the market, not time the market

It's always mattered with Todem. He specifically mentioned scooping up quality stocks because the valuation was at decades low. The no one will care comment related to buying 20% to early. It was more important to get into the market with your cash if you were a long term investor than trying to time the bottom.

I have him on ignore Bass……he has no idea who I am….what I do and how long I have been doing it and I want to keey it that way.

He is clearly trying to troll me….let him spew his rhetoric…..meantime thise who know….know and can continue to profit from friendly well times advice.

Carry on.

It doesn't matter who you are. It is quite sad that you perceive getting called out on making completely contradictory statements to be trolling.

And yes. Posting mic drop advice to not time the market one day and then on the next advising people to "wait because a stock it will get cheaper" is completely contradictory.

 

[ghostguy123]

Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.

So now valuation matters?

I thought the formula was "scoop up quality stocks now" because "no one cares what happens in 5-7-10 years."

Remember: Time in the market, not time the market

It's always mattered with Todem. He specifically mentioned scooping up quality stocks because the valuation was at decades low. The no one will care comment related to buying 20% to early. It was more important to get into the market with your cash if you were a long term investor than trying to time the bottom.

I have him on ignore Bass……he has no idea who I am….what I do and how long I have been doing it and I want to keey it that way.

He is clearly trying to troll me….let him spew his rhetoric…..meantime thise who know….know and can continue to profit from friendly well times advice.

Carry on.

It doesn't matter who you are. It is quite sad that you perceive getting called out on making completely contradictory statements to be trolling.

And yes. Posting mic drop advice to not time the market one day and then on the next advising people to "wait because a stock it will get cheaper" is completely contradictory.

I don't recall him ever advising people to "wait", and pretty much only recall projections that eventually came true.
Move along, seriously.

 

[Stoneworker]

I don't recall him ever advising people to "wait", and pretty much only recall projections that eventually came true.
Move along, seriously.

Seriously? Go read the PLTR post before making untrue statements.

 

[McBokonon]

I think I might need to buy some puts on self-awareness and reading the room.

 

[Slumpbusters]

Check out MSTY - dividend fund that tracks bitcoin.

MSTY day is coming up May 8th. To get the dividend, you have to be a stockholder by 5/8.

It is slated to pay a $1.34/share dividend this month. That's basically a free 5.4% on your money. You can turn around and sell it as soon as the dividend hits your account, then rinse and repeat next month.

My buddy turned me on to this a couple months ago, and our little stock group has cashed in 2 months running.

It helps if the stock goes up too, but even if it loses a point or two in the short term, you are still money ahead.

Yeah……that’s not how dividends work. It not free money. The share price goes down by the amount of the dividend. The yieldmax ETFs aren’t really dividends anyways. Most of it is a distribution.

I know there is no such thing as free money, but its been working pretty well so far. The share price does go down but has recovered very quickly (like 1 day) on the strength of BTC and the uncertain dollar. I'm an engineer not a financial advisor, all I said was check it out if so inclined.

 

[Slumpbusters]

It is slated to pay a $1.34/share dividend this month. That's basically a free 5.4% on your money. You can turn around and sell it as soon as the dividend hits your account, then rinse and repeat next month.

Be careful you’re not actually losing money on this with the buys and sells.

Free was likely a bad way to put it. The stock is still trading itself at pre-election levels, and its been a hold so far. It basically follows MSTR and BTC, so if you like both of those, you like MSTY. If not, likly not. Disclaimer - this isn't huge dollars I'm investing and its very much the "fun" money. I'm a Boglehead at heart and all my real investments follow that strategy.

 

[BassNBrew]

I don't recall him ever advising people to "wait", and pretty much only recall projections that eventually came true.
Move along, seriously.

Seriously? Go read the PLTR post before making untrue statements.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.

You are both right as it was an either/or

 

[BassNBrew]

Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?

 

[Sand]

Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?

Because 25 is also a token? Actually I wonder if they ever make cuts not in multiples of 25. I've never seen it.

 

[Stoneworker]

Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?

I believe the signalling aspect is done in Powell's post-rate decision commentary and Q/A.

There is an entire industry devoted to parsing these comments to determine if they are hawkish or dovish.

Jeffrey Gundlach is a noted Fed Watcher who is usually interviewed at length on CNBC on days like today