This seems like an overly risky play unless you're swinging for the fences or buying a very expensive, deep in the money long term call (which not many people do). I know you don't get many shares of stock compared to the leverage afforded by buying calls, but the time horizon on this thing bouncing back could be longer than the duration of your calls.
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Stock Thread (89 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Sand
Footballguy
Except de minimis - so small companies and consumers get the shaft and mega companies consolidate power. Disheartening from a competition point of view.
In fact, the way the rules read right now anything over $800 gets a 30% tariff. Anything under gets a 54% tariff plus a $100/parcel duty. Crazy. It seems many legal experts think the tariffs will get thrown out in court. I wonder how the market will take that if it happens.
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KGB
Footballguy
KGB
Footballguy
$600 account current stats.That's some gamboling!Lost $2k on my tesla shirt. Dumb me
Sold some of my VRT calls up around 100%
$600 account up to $15k woot!
$16,600
Shorted WOLF with a huge bet. puts for 5/16
UNH calls
and still have 2 VRT calls. about $7000 worth at 5/30 and 6/6
It’s a good discipline to do that.
General Malaise
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Drug and health companies at the lowest valuations they’ve been in a long time. Going back 10 years PFE, MRK, BMY, UNH, JNJ all at or below their lowest forward PEs. LLY at its lowest valuation since 2021. They are hated right now.
I am in for shares of this as well.
General Malaise
Footballguy
How come you guys never mention Vertex when discussing these names?
identikit
Footballguy
Really Jonesing to get back into this stock
Tried so many times, but never made a dollar on it
MRK and LLY (Lilly is my
Highest conviction) are my two faves and I may look at BMY again as well.
Runkle
Footballguy
What do you see as a good price point to enter LLY? It's been sliding from 900 to 750 lately IIRC. Any strategy to start building a new position?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Largely a value proposition for me and going where things are hated. A lot of the big pharma names are trading at PEs of 6-7 and price to sales of 2-3.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
It’s bounced off that 725-730 levels multiple times in the last six months. We’re only a couple percent above there so anytime imo to start a position.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
LLY showing a forward PE of 30 on CNBC.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Yeah that’s the expensive one but also the one with the highest growth rate. Still the cheapest it’s been since 2021.
Priced at $52 above range of $46-$50. That is a good sign of strong demand so I expect a nice pop when it opens. I got 200 shares.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Still invested in the markets even though I pulled out excessive positions before liberation day. Glad things bounced back, but I still don’t regret my decision to reduce exposure and increase my cash positions. I’ve been moving my cash into short term CD’s that pay pretty good rates. I recently did a couple at US Bank that are five month CD’s that pay 4 percent annual interest. I also did a couple of 7 month CD’s at Bank of America that also pay 4% annually. When I was doing these CD’s—I was considering doing US treasuries (shorter term ones)—that pay a similar rate but are exempt from State taxes. This had me thinking—and I was going to post this in the economy thread—but apparently that has been locked—but if anybody would chime in—that would be great.
My thought is that it seems odd that the US government would charge federal tax made on gains on interest that is generated by US citizens that are effectively doing the government a favor and loaning them money (through the purchase of treasuries). One of the biggest issues that our government is facing is the interest due on the debt—and much of this debt is held by foreign entities and governments—so a lot of money is leaving the country. However, if the government made it so that there is a tax benefit for US citizens that purchased treasuries—more of this debt would be held by Americans. This would also make it so that the interest paid on this debt would be paid to American citizens that would/could actually spend this money and keep it in our markets. Wouldn’t it massive beneficial if a large portion of the interest paid by our government on the debt be paid back into our own markets? It just feels like reducing or eliminating the federal tax to US citizens on US treasuries could be a great idea. My thoughts are that the lobbyist that are effectively representatives of big business in this country would discourage that—as they would not want to see money come out of the stock markets? Is there anything else that I’m missing about how a reduction of federal taxes for US citizens on treasuries would be a bad idea?
My thought is that it seems odd that the US government would charge federal tax made on gains on interest that is generated by US citizens that are effectively doing the government a favor and loaning them money (through the purchase of treasuries). One of the biggest issues that our government is facing is the interest due on the debt—and much of this debt is held by foreign entities and governments—so a lot of money is leaving the country. However, if the government made it so that there is a tax benefit for US citizens that purchased treasuries—more of this debt would be held by Americans. This would also make it so that the interest paid on this debt would be paid to American citizens that would/could actually spend this money and keep it in our markets. Wouldn’t it massive beneficial if a large portion of the interest paid by our government on the debt be paid back into our own markets? It just feels like reducing or eliminating the federal tax to US citizens on US treasuries could be a great idea. My thoughts are that the lobbyist that are effectively representatives of big business in this country would discourage that—as they would not want to see money come out of the stock markets? Is there anything else that I’m missing about how a reduction of federal taxes for US citizens on treasuries would be a bad idea?
Revenue growth rate is currently 37%
Net margins 23%
The reason for the fall is net margins may get squeezed more with prescription drug reform.
Dividend growth is 15% year over year ending 3/2025
The explosive stock price growth happened. Upside from here in my opinion is in the 40-45% range over the jext 12-18 months.
Master List updated for 2025
Please also understand I have been in a ton of these companies as early as 1990’s. I built my first true stock portfolio in 1992 when I was able to diversify it into over 20 positions. And it has evolved over the decades.
Here are all the positions we currently hold:
AAPL
ABBV
AEP
AMZN
CAT
CEG
CMI
CRM
CSCO
DE
DEO
DKS
DOW
ED
EXC
FI
GIS
GLPI
GOOGL
HD
HSY
JNJ
JPM
KO
LLY
LMT
LYB
MCD
META
MRK
MSFT
NEE
NFLX
NSC
NVDA
O
PANW
PEO
PEP
PG
PM
PPL
QCOM
SBUX
T
TGT
TSCO
TSM
TTD
UNH
V
VRT
VZ
WMT
Ones we exited out of since the last time we posted this list……which I don’t even remember the last time I did:
DIS
BA
CVS
CVX
PFE
Please also understand I have been in a ton of these companies as early as 1990’s. I built my first true stock portfolio in 1992 when I was able to diversify it into over 20 positions. And it has evolved over the decades.
Here are all the positions we currently hold:
AAPL
ABBV
AEP
AMZN
CAT
CEG
CMI
CRM
CSCO
DE
DEO
DKS
DOW
ED
EXC
FI
GIS
GLPI
GOOGL
HD
HSY
JNJ
JPM
KO
LLY
LMT
LYB
MCD
META
MRK
MSFT
NEE
NFLX
NSC
NVDA
O
PANW
PEO
PEP
PG
PM
PPL
QCOM
SBUX
T
TGT
TSCO
TSM
TTD
UNH
V
VRT
VZ
WMT
Ones we exited out of since the last time we posted this list……which I don’t even remember the last time I did:
DIS
BA
CVS
CVX
PFE
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We spend way too much money……so let’s encourage more debt because it is tax free? And stunt growth in the private markets and public corporations and keep this unprofitable big federal government spending like druken sailors? Politicians are the worst money managers on the face of the earth.
Cut the spending. We don’t have a revenue problem.
We have a spending problem and now we are drifitng into politics.
Which we absolutely do not want to do in here…..sorry but I had to give a simple answer in what is a complicated matter.
Basically this debt is going to keep rolling over and be refinanced and we won’t be around to ever see a government surplus ever again if we keep spending on too much frivolous BS.
Also raise the SS phase out and we solve that issue easily. That is such an easy fix. Like literally super easy. SS is never going away…..ever. That fix will be done when it is absolutely needed.
Back to the markets……My bull case is looking stronger each passing week.
724.82 last tick.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Thanks todem!
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I am tempted but that news is very bad news for LLY, I am surprised they are only down 2%
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
My daughter has been hooked on a place that opened near Michigan State called 7 Brew. Seems like a BROS competitor but, looking at their locations, they don't seem to be afraid of the colder weather states. However, looks like they're a private company at this point.
I've driven by one a few times and the double drive thru is backed up on the street
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
i dunno what their presence is here in Los Angeles area, but I have yet to see one in any of the major suburbs. I did see two recently pop up in the Corona area, which is way out there in the sticks in reference to Los Angeles county, i think that is Riverside county. Thought of this thread when I saw the first one and mentioned to my buddy who lives out there and he said a second one just opened nearby. His kids seem to know the name better than we did, I only knew about it because of you guys.
Redwes25
Footballguy
It would cost a ton of money. Google tells me that Muni bonds cost the federal governement about $25 billion annually. Treasury market is much much larger - think like 10 times larger so imagine cost would be like $200 billion a year (which would all be debt financed). Can't imagine federal govt. can afford that much lost revenue and interest savings probably don't make up for it..
General Malaise
Footballguy
Apparently, LA has very strict zoning laws for drive-thrus. Guessing the last thing they want is something that could potentially create MORE traffic problems. You're right, they are in and around SoCal but mostly in areas where traffic density isn't as bad. There's almost 200 locations total in California now. Texas is up to over 215. AZ likes their BROS too.
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
I'm in the valley and the closest Dutch Bros to me is in Baldwin Park. yikes. I'd like to try it, but I'm not driving a ******* hour for coffee. maybe some day when I'm wandering in the outskirts I can try it.
when I was in Oklahoma for family stuff, we tried Scooters for the first time and were hooked. we went there every single day afterwards until we left. I still fiend for a Turtle Latte...
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
this is awesome. I noticed upthread you also mentioned having pretty strong convictions for WIX & VST. are those just things that you like but not enough to make them 'official' for the list?
Sammy3469
Footballguy
While that's true, my guess is that the bigger issue is prime drive through spots are taken by In and Out or Chick Fil A. Riverside and the corridor from Bakersfield to Fresno to Sacramento are still exploding and there are prime locations for those areas being developed. Their growth makes a ton of sense (and if they're getting what they are, where they are, more power to them), but they pretty clearly have decided to not fight Starbuck/local coffee joints/Jamba (and uppity CA has a pretty intense local coffee/drink culture in general that is hard to break into).
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yeah, that all makes sense too. I imagine Los Angelinos are loyal to their Mocha Joes and Latte Larry's.
Yeah not yet on the list but very close.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Oddly enough, In-N-Out has been trying to set up a location in Beaverton, OR for years and the residents and politicians have fought tooth and nail to keep them out due to traffic concerns they would cause Oregonians. For if you did open up one of these in the Portland area, the rubes here would lose their ever loving minds.
20 years ago, Popeyes opened up a location in Beaverton. It was so crowded, cops had to come in and do traffic control. Hour long waits for a long long time. For Popeyes. But that's not even the best part. Best part is that there was another Popeyes on the east side of the river on MLK Blvd that had been there for decades without any lines or traffic problems.
We are a silly people.
20 years ago, Popeyes opened up a location in Beaverton. It was so crowded, cops had to come in and do traffic control. Hour long waits for a long long time. For Popeyes. But that's not even the best part. Best part is that there was another Popeyes on the east side of the river on MLK Blvd that had been there for decades without any lines or traffic problems.
We are a silly people.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Can I interest you in a 15 car deep line at 9:00pm on a Tuesday? While there are McDonalds, Wendy's, etc around in similar numbers or restaurants, the In and Out lines are always absurd vs those places. They all have special parking lot lanes, etc to manage the traffic. The intensity of the car lines is definitely post-COVID thing.
Having said all that, I could definitely see a Dutch Bros being the hawt new thing where we are.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Too funny. Where I grew up, New Orleans, is replete with drive through daquiri shops. Worlds apart.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Lol.....not proud of this, but when I would drive home to Dallas from Jackson, MS, I would stop immediately after crossing the state lines between MS/LA at the first exit which was loudly advertised by giant billboards as the home of DAQUIRI WORLD, a little shack with drive-thru frozen drinks the size of a Home Depot bucket. I'd suck on one of those for the next 175 miles on I20 while the highway never curved. Also think I just needed to be 18 to buy one.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Bond market, YIKES! All your gains belonging to inflation!!!!!!!!!
Bossman
Footballguy
I'm still trying to figure out why anyone would ever buy bonds over stocks.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Yeah... bonds hella beat down right now.
