Stock Thread (10 Viewers)

[BassNBrew]

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said demand is up huge this year as artificial intelligence models develop further from answering simple questions to complex reasoning.

“This year, particularly the last six months, demand of computing has gone up substantially,” said Huang on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”


The CEO of the AI chip leader was answering a question about what investors ask him most about. Nvidia shares were higher in premarket trading as Huang gave his bullish comments.

AI reasoning models are using exponential amounts of computing power but they are also seeing exponential amounts of demand because their results are so good, Huang said.

“The AIs are smart enough that everybody wants to use it,” the CEO said. “We now have two exponentials happening at the same time.”

“Demand for Blackwell is really, really high,” he said. “I think we’re at the beginning of a new buildout, beginning of a new industrial revolution.”

Nvidia announced last month it will invest $100 billion in OpenAI’s massive data center buildout. OpenAI is planning to build 10 gigawatts of data centers using Nvidia chips.

The scale of the AI industry’s plans have raised doubts about whether the leading companies can secure the power needed to fuel their ambitions. Ten gigawatts is equivalent to the annual power consumption of 8 million U.S. households, or New York City’s peak baseline summer demand in 2024.

Saw that. Huang will hit the "Bill Gates spite" zone at some point, where he's ruining the world for taking over (embellishing here) and "unlikeable" for, well, dominating (and explaining with a wry smile).

That will largely come from the base that missed the train, as such with MSFT for a time.

It's what we do. Get to a point where we've had enough and turn on them, trying to demonize the guy or whatever. It'll probly start with the all-important black leather jackets, like Jobs' turtlenecks, Gates and his Kermit the frog with glasses, ha. Memes here we come. But the core haters will point to all the disruption, jobs lost, domination, etc. Evil empire.

As if this wasn't going to happen anyway with other bright minds. Sorry, for being way ahead of the game?

Huang's my favorite since, well, Kermit the Frog.

I asked where he's getting his black gator leather jackets a while back.

I really like Huang, but I love Lisa Su.

Speaking of which, AMD is up another 7% today.

 

[General Malaise]

Writing our quarterly newsletter now. Not yet complete, but of note:

We now enjoy unrealized gains of more than $REDACTED in both Kraken and 5N+. In the case of Kraken, it is increasingly difficult to justify ownership since it is trading at 16x ’27 EBITDA and a 21 P/E on ’27 estimates. However, their business momentum is significant, and warfare is increasingly unmanned, as drone proliferation in the Ukraine/Russia war demonstrates. While the Milky Way has something like 100 billion planets in a universe of two trillion galaxies, here on earth the oceans are the final frontier. Kraken is a wonderful play on unmanned warfare beneath the planet’s liquid skin. Meanwhile, above, 5N+ serves the satellite industry with their solar solutions via their Azure division which continues to operate at capacity even as they expand said capacity significantly.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

As an aside, there is part of that interview where Intel comes up, it's great. Cramer -- oh but we hate him, although this was an all-time great call by him, and not recent either -- mentioned how badly Intel had it out for Nvidia. Huang stated that for 33 years, they made it their mission to knock Nvidia out all due to Gelsinger's ego; hell-bent to take down Nvidia, attacking Huang publicly, etc. Not smart. How did that work out?

Intel is now Huang's *****, as he passively mentioned they now own a part, with a smile. But his main point was that it didn't have to be like that. How working together can work, and in the end, is best for America. Stuff like that. Interesting how that all unfolded and the results are quite stunning.

 

[BassNBrew]

Writing our quarterly newsletter now. Not yet complete, but of note:

We now enjoy unrealized gains of more than $REDACTED in both Kraken and 5N+. In the case of Kraken, it is increasingly difficult to justify ownership since it is trading at 16x ’27 EBITDA and a 21 P/E on ’27 estimates. However, their business momentum is significant, and warfare is increasingly unmanned, as drone proliferation in the Ukraine/Russia war demonstrates. While the Milky Way has something like 100 billion planets in a universe of two trillion galaxies, here on earth the oceans are the final frontier. Kraken is a wonderful play on unmanned warfare beneath the planet’s liquid skin. Meanwhile, above, 5N+ serves the satellite industry with their solar solutions via their Azure division which continues to operate at capacity even as they expand said capacity significantly.

Very well written. Can't wait to read the one for Bros and their sweet nectar.

 

[General Malaise]

Writing our quarterly newsletter now. Not yet complete, but of note:

We now enjoy unrealized gains of more than $REDACTED in both Kraken and 5N+. In the case of Kraken, it is increasingly difficult to justify ownership since it is trading at 16x ’27 EBITDA and a 21 P/E on ’27 estimates. However, their business momentum is significant, and warfare is increasingly unmanned, as drone proliferation in the Ukraine/Russia war demonstrates. While the Milky Way has something like 100 billion planets in a universe of two trillion galaxies, here on earth the oceans are the final frontier. Kraken is a wonderful play on unmanned warfare beneath the planet’s liquid skin. Meanwhile, above, 5N+ serves the satellite industry with their solar solutions via their Azure division which continues to operate at capacity even as they expand said capacity significantly.

Very well written. Can't wait to read the one for Bros and their sweet nectar.

Our firm doesn't agree with my personal investment into BROS and finds my due diligence a little bit.....lacking.

On that note, the lines were 10 deep on both sides of the Tualatin BROS this morning - busier than normal. TO THE MOON!

 

[BassNBrew]

Writing our quarterly newsletter now. Not yet complete, but of note:

We now enjoy unrealized gains of more than $REDACTED in both Kraken and 5N+. In the case of Kraken, it is increasingly difficult to justify ownership since it is trading at 16x ’27 EBITDA and a 21 P/E on ’27 estimates. However, their business momentum is significant, and warfare is increasingly unmanned, as drone proliferation in the Ukraine/Russia war demonstrates. While the Milky Way has something like 100 billion planets in a universe of two trillion galaxies, here on earth the oceans are the final frontier. Kraken is a wonderful play on unmanned warfare beneath the planet’s liquid skin. Meanwhile, above, 5N+ serves the satellite industry with their solar solutions via their Azure division which continues to operate at capacity even as they expand said capacity significantly.

Very well written. Can't wait to read the one for Bros and their sweet nectar.

Our firm doesn't agree with my personal investment into BROS and finds my due diligence a little bit.....lacking.

On that note, the lines were 10 deep on both sides of the Tualatin BROS this morning - busier than normal. TO THE MOON!

Have you tried this?

General Malise's Bold Investment Pitch

A conversational AI system that listens, learns, and challenges

chatgpt.com

 

[BassNBrew]

Writing our quarterly newsletter now. Not yet complete, but of note:

We now enjoy unrealized gains of more than $REDACTED in both Kraken and 5N+. In the case of Kraken, it is increasingly difficult to justify ownership since it is trading at 16x ’27 EBITDA and a 21 P/E on ’27 estimates. However, their business momentum is significant, and warfare is increasingly unmanned, as drone proliferation in the Ukraine/Russia war demonstrates. While the Milky Way has something like 100 billion planets in a universe of two trillion galaxies, here on earth the oceans are the final frontier. Kraken is a wonderful play on unmanned warfare beneath the planet’s liquid skin. Meanwhile, above, 5N+ serves the satellite industry with their solar solutions via their Azure division which continues to operate at capacity even as they expand said capacity significantly.

Very well written. Can't wait to read the one for Bros and their sweet nectar.

Our firm doesn't agree with my personal investment into BROS and finds my due diligence a little bit.....lacking.

On that note, the lines were 10 deep on both sides of the Tualatin BROS this morning - busier than normal. TO THE MOON!

General Malise’s Coffee Shop Appeal

A conversational AI system that listens, learns, and challenges

chatgpt.com

Actually had to re-read your post because I thought 10 deep lines on both side of Tualatin was some advance technical indicator line for stock volume.

 

[General Malaise]

Writing our quarterly newsletter now. Not yet complete, but of note:

We now enjoy unrealized gains of more than $REDACTED in both Kraken and 5N+. In the case of Kraken, it is increasingly difficult to justify ownership since it is trading at 16x ’27 EBITDA and a 21 P/E on ’27 estimates. However, their business momentum is significant, and warfare is increasingly unmanned, as drone proliferation in the Ukraine/Russia war demonstrates. While the Milky Way has something like 100 billion planets in a universe of two trillion galaxies, here on earth the oceans are the final frontier. Kraken is a wonderful play on unmanned warfare beneath the planet’s liquid skin. Meanwhile, above, 5N+ serves the satellite industry with their solar solutions via their Azure division which continues to operate at capacity even as they expand said capacity significantly.

Very well written. Can't wait to read the one for Bros and their sweet nectar.

Our firm doesn't agree with my personal investment into BROS and finds my due diligence a little bit.....lacking.

On that note, the lines were 10 deep on both sides of the Tualatin BROS this morning - busier than normal. TO THE MOON!

Have you tried this?

General Malise's Bold Investment Pitch

A conversational AI system that listens, learns, and challenges

chatgpt.com

I wish I looked like that guy. My buddy did an AI version of me and man, I need to hit the gym. Can AI do that for me?

 

[BassNBrew]

Writing our quarterly newsletter now. Not yet complete, but of note:

We now enjoy unrealized gains of more than $REDACTED in both Kraken and 5N+. In the case of Kraken, it is increasingly difficult to justify ownership since it is trading at 16x ’27 EBITDA and a 21 P/E on ’27 estimates. However, their business momentum is significant, and warfare is increasingly unmanned, as drone proliferation in the Ukraine/Russia war demonstrates. While the Milky Way has something like 100 billion planets in a universe of two trillion galaxies, here on earth the oceans are the final frontier. Kraken is a wonderful play on unmanned warfare beneath the planet’s liquid skin. Meanwhile, above, 5N+ serves the satellite industry with their solar solutions via their Azure division which continues to operate at capacity even as they expand said capacity significantly.

Very well written. Can't wait to read the one for Bros and their sweet nectar.

Our firm doesn't agree with my personal investment into BROS and finds my due diligence a little bit.....lacking.

On that note, the lines were 10 deep on both sides of the Tualatin BROS this morning - busier than normal. TO THE MOON!

General Malise’s Coffee Shop Appeal

A conversational AI system that listens, learns, and challenges

chatgpt.com

Actually had to re-read your post because I thought 10 deep lines on both side of Tualatin was some advance technical indicator line for stock volume.

And take note @MTskibum , you don't get cartoons on demand while closing a business deal with on AI working for you.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

Writing our quarterly newsletter now. Not yet complete, but of note:

We now enjoy unrealized gains of more than $REDACTED in both Kraken and 5N+. In the case of Kraken, it is increasingly difficult to justify ownership since it is trading at 16x ’27 EBITDA and a 21 P/E on ’27 estimates. However, their business momentum is significant, and warfare is increasingly unmanned, as drone proliferation in the Ukraine/Russia war demonstrates. While the Milky Way has something like 100 billion planets in a universe of two trillion galaxies, here on earth the oceans are the final frontier. Kraken is a wonderful play on unmanned warfare beneath the planet’s liquid skin. Meanwhile, above, 5N+ serves the satellite industry with their solar solutions via their Azure division which continues to operate at capacity even as they expand said capacity significantly.

Very well written. Can't wait to read the one for Bros and their sweet nectar.

Our firm doesn't agree with my personal investment into BROS and finds my due diligence a little bit.....lacking.

On that note, the lines were 10 deep on both sides of the Tualatin BROS this morning - busier than normal. TO THE MOON!

Have you tried this?

General Malise's Bold Investment Pitch

A conversational AI system that listens, learns, and challenges

chatgpt.com

I wish I looked like that guy. My buddy did an AI version of me and man, I need to hit the gym. Can AI do that for me?

My link.

 

[stbugs]

Feeling like irrational exuberance, doesn't it?

On the surface. My counter argument is that the high market valuations is being driven by mega caps that are growing at 10-40% hence they are warranted. Look are these stocks:

CRM - forward PE 20, expected to grow 10%
Adobe - forward PE 16 and growing 10%

The froth is in companies like Cava, Chipotle, etc. Overall you end up with a mixed bag. If you were to trimmed 10-20% off Amazon, Google, Meta right now they would be table pounding buys.

Overall it's left me very confused.

Don’t agree with you on Cava. P/S almost at 6 with a robust 20%+ revenue expectations for the near future. There are a lot of companies in that nosebleed area of 30-50 or even 100+ P/S and 100-200+ P/E

I do see a lot of froth in the market. Less so in the Mag 7 and more in the ancillary AI market and stocks that act more like meme stocks. Tesla and Palantir are just ridiculous when you look at the numbers.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

General Malaise :salute:

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Feeling like irrational exuberance, doesn't it?

On the surface. My counter argument is that the high market valuations is being driven by mega caps that are growing at 10-40% hence they are warranted. Look are these stocks:

CRM - forward PE 20, expected to grow 10%
Adobe - forward PE 16 and growing 10%

The froth is in companies like Cava, Chipotle, etc. Overall you end up with a mixed bag. If you were to trimmed 10-20% off Amazon, Google, Meta right now they would be table pounding buys.

Overall it's left me very confused.

Don’t agree with you on Cava. P/S almost at 6 with a robust 20%+ revenue expectations for the near future. There are a lot of companies in that nosebleed area of 30-50 or even 100+ P/S and 100-200+ P/E

I do see a lot of froth in the market. Less so in the Mag 7 and more in the ancillary AI market and stocks that act more like meme stocks. Tesla and Palantir are just ridiculous when you look at the numbers.

But robots!!!

 

[BassNBrew]

Feeling like irrational exuberance, doesn't it?

On the surface. My counter argument is that the high market valuations is being driven by mega caps that are growing at 10-40% hence they are warranted. Look are these stocks:

CRM - forward PE 20, expected to grow 10%
Adobe - forward PE 16 and growing 10%

The froth is in companies like Cava, Chipotle, etc. Overall you end up with a mixed bag. If you were to trimmed 10-20% off Amazon, Google, Meta right now they would be table pounding buys.

Overall it's left me very confused.

Don’t agree with you on Cava. P/S almost at 6 with a robust 20%+ revenue expectations for the near future. There are a lot of companies in that nosebleed area of 30-50 or even 100+ P/S and 100-200+ P/E

I do see a lot of froth in the market. Less so in the Mag 7 and more in the ancillary AI market and stocks that act more like meme stocks. Tesla and Palantir are just ridiculous when you look at the numbers.

Interesting, may need to take a second look.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Feeling like irrational exuberance, doesn't it?

It’s been that way for months and months

 

[odin33]

I grabbed some TUNGF this AM.

Up 7%

Nice little +19.7% today. Hat tip to GM

 

[BassNBrew]

LOL...AMD up another 11%. It's now a 3 banger since early April.

I'm dribbling off shares as the allocation goes up daily, but I fully expect this to be north of $600 in two years and over $1000 in five years. That said, there will have to be a pullback and profit taking soon. Would love to move a some shares that I can buy back 10% cheaper.

 

[Sand]

Company stock is up 10x since 2022. Kinda crazy. My ESPP is made it so I'm returning 10% over the S&P this year.

Anyway, we mentioned HGRAF lately? I know we've talked about the . HGRAF is up 1700% this year. Sadly I've only caught about 75% of that. Not sure who mentioned that one, but hat tip!

 

[Sand]

Feeling like irrational exuberance, doesn't it?

It’s been that way for months and months

Good fundamentals + monetary policy easing + anticipated to ease more =

 

[BassNBrew]

Can someone convince me to pull the plug on DOW (down 45%) and Lyondell Basell (down 33%)? Plan was to sit thru another set of earnings this month and hope for a turn around. I foolishly chased these down and now feel like I being stubborn not just recording the L and moving on to greener pastures. If only I had swapped them for another 50 shares of AMD.

 

[BassNBrew]

Company stock is up 10x since 2022. Kinda crazy. My ESPP is made it so I'm returning 10% over the S&P this year.

Anyway, we mentioned HGRAF lately? I know we've talked about the . HGRAF is up 1700% this year. Sadly I've only caught about 75% of that. Not sure who mentioned that one, but hat tip!

Congrats on making your CEO rich. Nice that they toss you a 10% of a bone.

 

[General Malaise]

I grabbed some TUNGF this AM.

Up 7%

Nice little +19.7% today. Hat tip to GM

You guys bought the one I don't own and never mentioned.

I love this thread.

 

[identikit]

Company stock is up 10x since 2022. Kinda crazy. My ESPP is made it so I'm returning 10% over the S&P this year.

Anyway, we mentioned HGRAF lately? I know we've talked about the . HGRAF is up 1700% this year. Sadly I've only caught about 75% of that. Not sure who mentioned that one, but hat tip!

That's yet another GM winner methinks

 

[General Malaise]

Yeah, well.....I'm no Todem and don't forget I am responsible for Playgon and Cobalt Blockchain so, let's hold off on getting measurements for a gold jacket.

 

[odin33]

I grabbed some TUNGF this AM.

Up 7%

Nice little +19.7% today. Hat tip to GM

You guys bought the one I don't own and never mentioned.

I love this thread.

Just like a portfolio, gotta diversify (this case in who I listen to.)

 

[Sand]

Congrats on making your CEO rich. Nice that they toss you a 10% of a bone.

You know I just listened to a Planet Money podcast that talked about CEO pay. I didn't know this, but there is a distinct moment in time when CEO pay exploded. That was when a bill was passed that restricted the deductibility of CEO pay to the first million, but also put into place a rule that CEO pay tied to performance was deductible. Thus the large move then to CEOs getting a lot of stock options. And since the markets did well in the mid 90s CEO pay rocketed and has never come back down substantially. All due to this new law.

Now, this is a non-politics board, so no mentioning names. But the year was 1993. So not who you might expect. And, yes, a ton of irony involved.

 

[identikit]

Yeah, well.....I'm no Todem and don't forget I am responsible for Playgon and Cobalt Blockchain so, let's hold off on getting measurements for a gold jacket.

Cobalt blue, maybe?

 

[BassNBrew]

Congrats on making your CEO rich. Nice that they toss you a 10% of a bone.

You know I just listened to a Planet Money podcast that talked about CEO pay. I didn't know this, but there is a distinct moment in time when CEO pay exploded. That was when a bill was passed that restricted the deductibility of CEO pay to the first million, but also put into place a rule that CEO pay tied to performance was deductible. Thus the large move then to CEOs getting a lot of stock options. And since the markets did well in the mid 90s CEO pay rocketed and has never come back down substantially. All due to this new law.

Now, this is a non-politics board, so no mentioning names. But the year was 1993. So not who you might expect. And, yes, a ton of irony involved.

Exactly who I expected. Back in the day when all the corrupt politicians got along behind closed doors and equally hated populists.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

 

[MTskibum]

Despite persistent material uncertainty around the global macroeconomic outlook, risky asset valuations have increased and credit spreads have compressed. Measures of risk premia across many risky asset classes have tightened further since the last FPC meeting in June 2025. On a number of measures, equity market valuations appear stretched, particularly for technology companies focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI). This, when combined with increasing concentration within market indices, leaves equity markets particularly exposed should expectations around the impact of AI become less optimistic.

.....

6: Equity valuations appeared stretched, particularly in backward-looking metrics in the US. For example, the earnings yield implied by the Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio was close to the lowest level in 25 years – comparable to the peak of the dot com bubble. Forward-looking valuation metrics and compression in US equity risk premia also remained elevated relative to historical levels, with the S&P 500 at a one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times, but remained below the levels reached during the dot com bubble. Some technology companies were trading at valuation ratios which implied high future earnings growth, and concentrations within US equity indices meant that any AI-led price adjustment would have a high level of pass-through into the returns for investors exposed to the aggregate index. 

The problem is you don't want to bail way before the bubble bursts. But more and more different groups are talking about the bubble now.

Financial Policy Committee Record – October 2025

Our Financial Policy Committee (FPC) meets to identify risks to financial stability and agree policy actions aimed at safeguarding the resilience of the UK financial system.

www.bankofengland.co.uk

 

[General Malaise]

Okay, so let's pretend the AI bubble pops and stocks related to AI take a beating, a lot of us are up massively on these names. Like, we could see a 15% correction and still be well into positive territory. I'm not married to these stocks. If we free fall, we sell, go to cash and look for other opportunities. It's not like owning a home during the great recession where you might feel stuck.

Just trying to understand the continuation of calling for a falling of the AI sky when it's done nothing but make you look like Chicken Little along the way.

Or are you suggesting that an AI bubble popping will somehow ruin our economy? Help me understand your long-standing concern here.

 

[urbanhack]

i wrote some of my own thoughts about the difference between the dot com bubble and this bubble. This is my newly revised AI-version:

"Your intuition is solid and touches on some key distinctions. Let me help you validate and expand these thoughts:"

Where Your Analysis is Strong​

1. Tangible Asset Base - You're absolutely right that the physical infrastructure layer (NVIDIA chips, data centers, cloud computing capacity) has real, immediate revenue with established customers. Companies like NVIDIA have seen genuine earnings growth, not just speculative valuations. This is fundamentally different from dot-com era companies valued at billions with minimal revenue.

2. Proven Value Proposition - Unlike the dot-com era's "build first, monetize later" approach, AI is already demonstrating measurable ROI in specific use cases—code completion tools saving developer hours, customer service automation reducing costs, content generation at scale. Businesses aren't betting on whether AI will be useful, but how much and where.

Areas to Develop Further​

1. The Software/Application Layer Parallel - While you note we're "still figuring out the software side," this is actually where your essay could draw a nuanced comparison. Many AI application companies (the software layer) do resemble dot-com patterns:

• High valuations with unclear paths to profitability
• Uncertainty about which use cases will dominate
• Questions about defensibility and moats
• The "ChatGPT wrapper" phenomenon mirrors the "website on the internet" era

2. The Infrastructure vs. Application Split - Consider framing your argument as: The AI bubble may be bifurcated—

• Infrastructure layer (chips, cloud, foundational models): More grounded, similar to companies that built internet infrastructure (Cisco, etc.—though even these crashed hard)
• Application layer: More speculative, potentially bubble-prone

3. Capital Intensity Difference- AI requires massive upfront capital (billions for training runs, data centers). This creates natural barriers to entry but also means:

• Failures will be more concentrated in fewer, larger bets
• The "long tail" of failed startups may be smaller than dot-com
• But individual failures could be more spectacular

4. The Monetization Question Isn't Fully Solved While businesses see efficiency gains, important questions remain:

• Will cost savings translate to enough revenue to justify current valuations?
• Are we in a "picks and shovels" phase where only infrastructure providers truly profit?
• Is there a "productivity paradox" where gains don't show up in broader economic metrics?

Potential Counterarguments to Address​

1. Historical precedent: Even infrastructure companies crashed 70-90% in dot-com bust (Cisco lost 86% of its value)
2. The expectation gap: Current AI valuations may already price in decades of perfect execution
3. The commoditization risk: Will AI capabilities become commoditized quickly, compressing margins?

Your essay could argue that while there may be a correction, it's likely to be:

• Less severe than dot-com due to real fundamentals
• More concentrated in specific layers of the stack
• Followed by faster recovery as the technology is genuinely transformative

Would you like me to help structure this into an outline or develop any of these points further?

 

[General Malaise]

And the dot com bubble is a really bad comparison. The carnage there was due to massively inflated stock valuations absent any financial metrics to back them nor any meaningful sources of revenue to justify them. That said, there were some massive winners that emerged out of the popped bubble...Priceline, Google, Amazon, Ebay.

These AI related names - many of them - are tonning it and have massive amounts of cash and revenue. Even a crappy stock like Intel has an enormous war chest of cash. That's a giant departure from the dot com bubble.

I think a correction could very well be in our future, but we might also be in the early innings of AI growth. I can guard against the former (now with profits) but gosh dang I'd hate to miss out on exponential growth from here.

 

[General Malaise]

Lol....what Hack said.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Tier / Band	Companies / Roles	Approx P/S Range	Qualitative Comments
Very High / Speculative AI / “pure plays”	IonQ, SoundHound, Palantir, etc.	~ 50‑500+	These are often small, early‑stage, with high market expectations vs small current revenues. Big risk.
High AI Infrastructure / Core Growth / Semi Leaders	NVIDIA, maybe AMD in some periods	~ 20‑30+ (for NVIDIA), ~ 9‑15 for AMD depending on source	These companies have strong growth tied directly to AI demand; more mature revenues than speculative names but still high multiples.
Solid Infrastructure / Foundry / Equipment Suppliers	TSMC, Lam Research, ASML, Applied Materials, etc.	~ 8‑12 (for TSMC & Lam), somewhat lower for some peers	These are less speculative; more capital intensive; margins & returns tend to be more stable but growth is substantial because AI / advanced semis demand is driving their order books.
Picks & Shovels / Supporting Infrastructure (Cooling, Racks, etc.)	Vertiv, etc.	~ ~5‑10 or lower depending on company	These tend to have weaker leverage to the super‑high growth / margins of core AI chip makers, but are more stable and less volatile.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

(I have NOT checked these, as I'm, well, lazy. Which is a primary reason I believe AI is going nowhere.)

Obv the top row gets into crazy territory, but how many of those are there, really? And how broadly impactful outside PLTR?

Are the rest of these insane valuations? High, sure. Market-breaking?

Obv the MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, METAs won't see their ROI if this doesn't come to fruition, but their business models aren't breaking. And the cash hoards are real and distinguishing. How deep does that top row go? What's not represented here?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I feel like most of the criticisms I read are coming from the people who used to say, "EVs will never work. They can only travel 180 miles at a time."

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Personally, it would be great if we could make this an actual, meaningful conversation. I'm open to there being an AI bubble that bursts. History says it's likely. Who are the winners and losers in those scenarios? Imagine if we'd been willing/able to do a modicum of this kind of thinking in Feb 2020.

 

[BassNBrew]

Despite persistent material uncertainty around the global macroeconomic outlook, risky asset valuations have increased and credit spreads have compressed. Measures of risk premia across many risky asset classes have tightened further since the last FPC meeting in June 2025. On a number of measures, equity market valuations appear stretched, particularly for technology companies focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI). This, when combined with increasing concentration within market indices, leaves equity markets particularly exposed should expectations around the impact of AI become less optimistic.

.....

6: Equity valuations appeared stretched, particularly in backward-looking metrics in the US. For example, the earnings yield implied by the Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio was close to the lowest level in 25 years – comparable to the peak of the dot com bubble. Forward-looking valuation metrics and compression in US equity risk premia also remained elevated relative to historical levels, with the S&P 500 at a one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times, but remained below the levels reached during the dot com bubble. Some technology companies were trading at valuation ratios which implied high future earnings growth, and concentrations within US equity indices meant that any AI-led price adjustment would have a high level of pass-through into the returns for investors exposed to the aggregate index. 

The problem is you don't want to bail way before the bubble bursts. But more and more different groups are talking about the bubble now.

Financial Policy Committee Record – October 2025

Our Financial Policy Committee (FPC) meets to identify risks to financial stability and agree policy actions aimed at safeguarding the resilience of the UK financial system.

www.bankofengland.co.uk

One could say there's a bubble of groups talking about a bubble.

 

[BassNBrew]

Tier / Band	Companies / Roles	Approx P/S Range	Qualitative Comments
Very High / Speculative AI / “pure plays”	IonQ, SoundHound, Palantir, etc.	~ 50‑500+	These are often small, early‑stage, with high market expectations vs small current revenues. Big risk.
High AI Infrastructure / Core Growth / Semi Leaders	NVIDIA, maybe AMD in some periods	~ 20‑30+ (for NVIDIA), ~ 9‑15 for AMD depending on source	These companies have strong growth tied directly to AI demand; more mature revenues than speculative names but still high multiples.
Solid Infrastructure / Foundry / Equipment Suppliers	TSMC, Lam Research, ASML, Applied Materials, etc.	~ 8‑12 (for TSMC & Lam), somewhat lower for some peers	These are less speculative; more capital intensive; margins & returns tend to be more stable but growth is substantial because AI / advanced semis demand is driving their order books.
Picks & Shovels / Supporting Infrastructure (Cooling, Racks, etc.)	Vertiv, etc.	~ ~5‑10 or lower depending on company	These tend to have weaker leverage to the super‑high growth / margins of core AI chip makers, but are more stable and less volatile.

What are typical P/S ratios? I've always focused on PEs so I don't have a handle on what normal is.

 

[Capella]

Soundhound is a big company? Man that was one of the first iPhone apps I had, way over a decade ago. You could open the app at a bar and it would tell you what the song was that the band or the house music was playing. What does it do now? Totally forgot they exist.

 

[pecorino]

Okay, so let's pretend the AI bubble pops and stocks related to AI take a beating, a lot of us are up massively on these names. Like, we could see a 15% correction and still be well into positive territory. I'm not married to these stocks. If we free fall, we sell, go to cash and look for other opportunities. It's not like owning a home during the great recession where you might feel stuck.

Just trying to understand the continuation of calling for a falling of the AI sky when it's done nothing but make you look like Chicken Little along the way.

Or are you suggesting that an AI bubble popping will somehow ruin our economy? Help me understand your long-standing concern here.

Sure, a -15% correction is not wiping folks out. But the drop in 2008 was 50%. In 1929 the drop was something like 90%. The internet bust was uneven, if I recall, rather than a widespread drop (I could be wrong on that) and it was well over 15%.

I guess for me the issue is that such a large portion of the gains lately are concentrated in just a few names that seem to be propping up everything else. It's literally an image in my mind of a houe of cards. And having read (most) of Taleb's work on Anti-fragility, well, it seems like this is an especially fragile moment.

 

[Todem]

Tier / Band	Companies / Roles	Approx P/S Range	Qualitative Comments
Very High / Speculative AI / “pure plays”	IonQ, SoundHound, Palantir, etc.	~ 50‑500+	These are often small, early‑stage, with high market expectations vs small current revenues. Big risk.
High AI Infrastructure / Core Growth / Semi Leaders	NVIDIA, maybe AMD in some periods	~ 20‑30+ (for NVIDIA), ~ 9‑15 for AMD depending on source	These companies have strong growth tied directly to AI demand; more mature revenues than speculative names but still high multiples.
Solid Infrastructure / Foundry / Equipment Suppliers	TSMC, Lam Research, ASML, Applied Materials, etc.	~ 8‑12 (for TSMC & Lam), somewhat lower for some peers	These are less speculative; more capital intensive; margins & returns tend to be more stable but growth is substantial because AI / advanced semis demand is driving their order books.
Picks & Shovels / Supporting Infrastructure (Cooling, Racks, etc.)	Vertiv, etc.	~ ~5‑10 or lower depending on company	These tend to have weaker leverage to the super‑high growth / margins of core AI chip makers, but are more stable and less volatile.

What are typical P/S ratios? I've always focused on PEs so I don't have a handle on what normal is.

I look at forward PE and price to book is a big one for me.

I will give my 4th quarter commentary and my 2026 outlook maybe next week.

 

[BassNBrew]

Okay, so let's pretend the AI bubble pops and stocks related to AI take a beating, a lot of us are up massively on these names. Like, we could see a 15% correction and still be well into positive territory. I'm not married to these stocks. If we free fall, we sell, go to cash and look for other opportunities. It's not like owning a home during the great recession where you might feel stuck.

Just trying to understand the continuation of calling for a falling of the AI sky when it's done nothing but make you look like Chicken Little along the way.

Or are you suggesting that an AI bubble popping will somehow ruin our economy? Help me understand your long-standing concern here.

Sure, a -15% correction is not wiping folks out. But the drop in 2008 was 50%. In 1929 the drop was something like 90%. The internet bust was uneven, if I recall, rather than a widespread drop (I could be wrong on that) and it was well over 15%.

I guess for me the issue is that such a large portion of the gains lately are concentrated in just a few names that seem to be propping up everything else. It's literally an image in my mind of a houe of cards. And having read (most) of Taleb's work on Anti-fragility, well, it seems like this is an especially fragile moment.

If Google and Meta go to a PE of 12-14 I'm taking out second mortgages and loading up.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Okay, so let's pretend the AI bubble pops and stocks related to AI take a beating, a lot of us are up massively on these names. Like, we could see a 15% correction and still be well into positive territory. I'm not married to these stocks. If we free fall, we sell, go to cash and look for other opportunities. It's not like owning a home during the great recession where you might feel stuck.

Just trying to understand the continuation of calling for a falling of the AI sky when it's done nothing but make you look like Chicken Little along the way.

Or are you suggesting that an AI bubble popping will somehow ruin our economy? Help me understand your long-standing concern here.

Amazing how fast people forget 2022.

If the market drops 15% based on an AI bubble the AI stocks will drop way more than 15%.

Remember 2022 a lot of the mid cap stuff that people liked in here like SE and SHOP dropped 80-90%. Even large caps like Meta and Netflix dropped 70-80%.

I don't think that is in any way likely here but it's possible, and the exuberance and feelings of invincibility in here are just as high as they were then.

Hoping for the best but I am okay de-risking. So of course things will probably go nutso to the positive.

 

[Capella]

Can we talking about making money and getting rich. I don’t like the vibes in here.

 

[General Malaise]

2008 is not a good example to cite either. There were many of us on this very message board calling that crash out plain as day before it happened and why. The sagacious @RedmondLonghorn had an exceptional thread titled "Chickens Coming Home to Roost" or something. That crash was a result of bad mortgages, bad banking governance and a government that turned a blind eye to it all before it was too late.

Some of us (me) had their best financial years in 2007-2008. The catalysts were all there for those that looked. Books were written, movies were made, it was cataclysmic in nature and the aftermath resulted in MAJOR changes to the way we do things in banking, finance, mortgages, etc.

This is not that. Period.

You think we're in a bubble, fine. But using the dot com bubble or 2008 or the Great Depression as examples of why we're about to go into a tailspin is poor due diligence and lacks a historical understanding of then vs now.

 

[The Z Machine]

Company stock is up 10x since 2022. Kinda crazy. My ESPP is made it so I'm returning 10% over the S&P this year.

Anyway, we mentioned HGRAF lately? I know we've talked about the . HGRAF is up 1700% this year. Sadly I've only caught about 75% of that. Not sure who mentioned that one, but hat tip!

Lucky MFer. My company stock is down like 60% from it's high in 2021. ESPP underwater from most of my shares. I stopped buying in 2024.

 

[Sand]

Company stock is up 10x since 2022. Kinda crazy. My ESPP is made it so I'm returning 10% over the S&P this year.

Anyway, we mentioned HGRAF lately? I know we've talked about the . HGRAF is up 1700% this year. Sadly I've only caught about 75% of that. Not sure who mentioned that one, but hat tip!

Lucky MFer. My company stock is down like 60% from it's high in 2021. ESPP underwater from most of my shares. I stopped buying in 2024.

Fully aware of the luck factor. We were acquired and this was the first chance I ever had to do an ESPP.

 

[pecorino]

2008 is not a good example to cite either. There were many of us on this very message board calling that crash out plain as day before it happened and why. The sagacious @RedmondLonghorn had an exceptional thread titled "Chickens Coming Home to Roost" or something. That crash was a result of bad mortgages, bad banking governance and a government that turned a blind eye to it all before it was too late.

Some of us (me) had their best financial years in 2007-2008. The catalysts were all there for those that looked. Books were written, movies were made, it was cataclysmic in nature and the aftermath resulted in MAJOR changes to the way we do things in banking, finance, mortgages, etc.

This is not that. Period.

You think we're in a bubble, fine. But using the dot com bubble or 2008 or the Great Depression as examples of why we're about to go into a tailspin is poor due diligence and lacks a historical understanding of then vs now.

I agree that 1929 and 2008 were unique situations and that it is very unlikely that we'll see drops like those again. The historical setups were far different than now. However, it should also be noted that there are circumstances this time around that were not present in those cases, things that could cause bad cascading effects that could make the next downturn unique as well. I'm thinking about algorithms and quant trading, geopolitical issues (even civil unrest issues), incredibly wide gaps in income inequity, and with an unusually frothy market. The SPY would need to lose almost one third of its value for its PE to be in line with historic averages. I'm not a doomsayer but at the same time, I don't think this is a great time to be pollyanna about the state of things. This is not that, agreed. We won't know exactly what *this* is until after the fact.