"Strength of Schedule analysis for preseason projections... (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

I think we can all agree Wood knows what he is doing and most of us respect his opinions.

That being said, I have never seen eye to eye with his stance here.

Creating a poll to see where the pool stands.

 

[Tau837]

I think the poll is slightly flawed. Degree matters here.

I think SOS can be helpful, but only to a small degree, and typically on a case by case basis. I think most people who think it can be helpful overestimate by how much.

It also depends on the method. Just looking at last year's ranking is not as helpful as trying to gauge changes, like added players, lost players, players back from injury, coaching changes, change in scheduled opponents... but trying to do that is challenging. And, as with offensive players, it's hard to predict injuries that will affect defensive performance over the course of the season.

I am pretty sure studies have been done that show no strong correlation from season to season, and I'm pretty sure that is the basis of Wood's stance.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think the poll is slightly flawed. Degree matters here.I think SOS can be helpful, but only to a small degree, and typically on a case by case basis.

Totally agree.I think Jason's statement in the article is too absolute.

 

[MDSkinner]

Complete waste, definitely not.

A for instance to me is a WR like Steve Johnson...loads of promise last year and most expect him to keep up that momentum going into this year. But is it not wise to look at the schedule and realize the guy plays Asomugha once and Revis twice and shouldn't that have some bearing on his value? 3 games where the guy is not likely to produce at the WR2 he is being chosen at is certainly something to at least consider, I think.

Obviously that is a very extreme example but I think there are others like it. And no question things change through the early parts of the season and teams that we think will have good defenses will not be as good and ones that we thought would be will not but it still seems like a good thing to at least look at the most likely potential pitfalls, if nothing else. So not a complete waste.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

End of the 1st Q

Woody 8,,,LHucks 5

 

[LHUCKS]

End of the 1st QWoody 8,,,LHucks 5

Looks like it is 7 to 10

 

[Jason Wood]

I think the poll is slightly flawed. Degree matters here.I think SOS can be helpful, but only to a small degree, and typically on a case by case basis. I think most people who think it can be helpful overestimate by how much.It also depends on the method. Just looking at last year's ranking is not as helpful as trying to gauge changes, like added players, lost players, players back from injury, coaching changes, change in scheduled opponents... but trying to do that is challenging. And, as with offensive players, it's hard to predict injuries that will affect defensive performance over the course of the season.I am pretty sure studies have been done that show no strong correlation from season to season, and I'm pretty sure that is the basis of Wood's stance.

That is, indeed, my stand JWB In that article I also mention that I was once strongly on the other side of the camp, and only through years of doing detailed projections for the site did I come to the empirical conclusion that it's a fool's errand. I also mentioned that SOS for future weeks, after the first month or so of the season (i.e., projecting who has a good matchup in Week 7 based on what we've seen in Weeks 1-6) has more utility.

 

[Jason Wood]

I should also mention that it's not a consensus view among the staff. We have -- as many of you know -- a SOS factor that goes into the Draft Dominator as well as our forward 300. FWIW, I do put my money where my mouth is. When I draft using the DD, I disable the SOS function.

 

[LHUCKS]

I should also mention that it's not a consensus view among the staff. We have -- as many of you know -- a SOS factor that goes into the Draft Dominator as well as our forward 300. FWIW, I do put my money where my mouth is. When I draft using the DD, I disable the SOS function.

Do you take out of division schedule into account at all when compiling your projections?

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

The question is stated as a complete waste of time, no it's not. I think we can put too much emphasis on it but we haven't seen the Jets play this year.

Anybody loving the Tony Romo matchup, Miles Austin and Dez Bryant matchup? We haven't seen the Jets play D so maybe I should be bullish on the Cowboys offense in the matchup.........but I'll play the odds and say, no.

 

[LHUCKS]

The question is stated as a complete waste of time, no it's not. I think we can put too much emphasis on it but we haven't seen the Jets play this year.Anybody loving the Tony Romo matchup, Miles Austin and Dez Bryant matchup? We haven't seen the Jets play D so maybe I should be bullish on the Cowboys offense in the matchup.........but I'll play the odds and say, no.

I certainly wont like it when my WRs are squaring off against the Eagles.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Please don't remind me, I'm hoping I wake up and all of those Eagles signings are a bad dream.

 

[Tanner9919]

I voted no, I think it is useful to a certain extent..but injuries,familiarity ( coaches going against familiar opposing coaching staffs - see Gruden's Bucs vs. Raiders in the SB) ,inclement weather,etc can play a huge role in how offenses and defenses play..

as for individual players, SOS makes a LOT of sense..J. Charles plays perhaps the toughest schedule of any NFL RB during the final 5-6 weeks of the season. NE, Pitt, GB, Chicago, Jets. that all but eliminates him from my draft board because the last thing I want is a RB going up against the toughest defenses during the fantasy playoffs..

 

[cheese]

Over the course of the full season? I think I agree with Wood. However, a pretty huge percentage of us are in leagues where playoffs determine your ultimate fate. I think its pretty silly to not at least consider what matchups you might have in those few weeks that matter most. This is especially true if you're confident that you will be a perenial playoff team. In an "all-sharks" league where I'm just hoping to make the playoffs and get lucky, I'll value it less.

All that was to say, I care about playoff schedules in my valuing of players, but not full-season SOS.

 

[Chase Stuart]

It's ironic that the more important part of SOS analysis goes ignored by fantasy players. That's taking into account last year's SOS when figuring out who to draft this year. Whatever you think of SOS, I don't know anyone who doesn't think we can't analyze SOS looking backwards. If a player faced a really hard or easy SOS last year, that should be a decently-sized part of your conclusion of him as a fantasy player.

 

[Tau837]

It's ironic that the more important part of SOS analysis goes ignored by fantasy players. That's taking into account last year's SOS when figuring out who to draft this year. Whatever you think of SOS, I don't know anyone who doesn't think we can't analyze SOS looking backwards. If a player faced a really hard or easy SOS last year, that should be a decently-sized part of your conclusion of him as a fantasy player.

 

[gump]

Chase - that sounds like the makings of a great article!

 

[GregR]

It's ironic that the more important part of SOS analysis goes ignored by fantasy players. That's taking into account last year's SOS when figuring out who to draft this year. Whatever you think of SOS, I don't know anyone who doesn't think we can't analyze SOS looking backwards. If a player faced a really hard or easy SOS last year, that should be a decently-sized part of your conclusion of him as a fantasy player.

As I was reading this thread, this is what I was thinking too. My thoughts immediately went to the arguments a couple of years ago that Derek Anderson's pro bowl season was a product of his schedule and that the next year there was a good expectation his schedule would be much tougher and that he would regress a lot.Whatever you think of predicting what this year's defenses will be like, we surely can evaluate how a player did in light of the defenses he faced last year.

 

[Wadsworth]

I do use SoS and have for years as a minor adjustment or tie-breaker, but I still find it valuable. There are also some creative ways to use SoS. For example I've had some success in the past with identifying a RB(for example) with great match ups the first 3 weeks of the season. I might draft him slightly early with the plan being to ride him for 2-3 weeks and try and trade him while his value is high. Of course it can still blow up in your face, but when it works it can yield a nice advantage. SoS is not a major factor, just another tool in the toolbox that is useful form time to time in the right situation.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

and sometimes I think when people talk about SOS they blurr the line between dynasty and redraft when giving their opinion.....obviously in dynasty it should mean very little, but in redraft it should be more of a factor.....

I am a KC fan but avoiding all offensive players for the reasons listed above...

1. cake schedule last year inflated all of their stats....especially Bowe and Cassel..

2. Charles may be one of the top talents in the league, but that schedule starting in week 11 is unreal and I don't care what you say about defenses from year to year, that stretch of 5 games is not good....

3. in weeks 11-15 I don't want my first round pick (Charles) or my 2-3 round pick (Bowe) having that brutal of a schedule and me having to decide should I play them or not....usually you want your first 5 picks or so to be "start no matter what type of guys" but Bowe is staring at Revis Island in week 14 at NYJ....huge fantasy playoff week....you gonna start him...?....

4. while it's nice to say wait a few weeks and then we'll see how the defenses look and then you can make a better assessment and plan accordingly, I say ok, but it's not always easy to unload guys etc that have a tough stretch coming up....I know one of the first things I do during the season when I am offered a trade is I look to see what the rest of the schedule looks like for the guy I am getting....it matters big time then....

5. so I think there are certain things with SOS that you can and have to look at before the season starts.....KC's stretch being a perfect example....along the same lines, guys like Rice and Mendy have nice looking scedules right now (NFC west) and they are both done facing each others tough defenses by week 9...but get CLE twice after week 9....

 

[Rick James]

I never look at strength of schedule for the upcoming year when drafting. It's impossible to know which defenses are going to be good or bad.

Once the season starts you can start making judgments and looking at match-ups, but until then I stay away from SOS.

 

[NeverEnough]

Not very useful IMO.

Another 1 of the over the top things about fantasy football.

It's FANTASY people, it doesn't require this stuff.

 

[JuSt CuZ]

Another great LHucks thread!

 

[Grahamburn]

as for individual players, SOS makes a LOT of sense..J. Charles plays perhaps the toughest schedule of any NFL RB during the final 5-6 weeks of the season. NE, Pitt, GB, Chicago, Jets. that all but eliminates him from my draft board because the last thing I want is a RB going up against the toughest defenses during the fantasy playoffs..

Agree with this. If you're looking at separating two players with similar ADPs and projections it makes sense to look at their schedules. Take Larry Fitzgerald and Hakeem Nicks. Both are early 2nd round picks with similar projections, yet Nicks faces Nnamdi twice and Revis in week 16. I'd much rather go with Larry facing the 49ers, Browns, and Bengals during the playoffs.

2. Charles may be one of the top talents in the league, but that schedule starting in week 11 is unreal and I don't care what you say about defenses from year to year, that stretch of 5 games is not good....

3. in weeks 11-15 I don't want my first round pick (Charles) or my 2-3 round pick (Bowe) having that brutal of a schedule and me having to decide should I play them or not....usually you want your first 5 picks or so to be "start no matter what type of guys" but Bowe is staring at Revis Island in week 14 at NYJ....huge fantasy playoff week....you gonna start him...?....

5. so I think there are certain things with SOS that you can and have to look at before the season starts.....KC's stretch being a perfect example....along the same lines, guys like Rice and Mendy have nice looking scedules right now (NFC west) and they are both done facing each others tough defenses by week 9...but get CLE twice after week 9....

Exactly why I'll be taking Mendenhall over Charles in my draft. There are just some defenses that we know will be perrenially tough to score on.