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stud rb in prime goes to new team (1 Viewer)

G

greenheads

Footballguy
I have edge in a keeper league and was trying to come up with other RB's in their prime that made similar moves and to compare how their stats were effected.

Portis goes to Washington and had the following drop off.

2003 Denver Broncos attempts 290 yds 1591 ave 5.5 TD's 14

2004 Washington Redskins attempts 343 yds 1315 ave 3.8 TD's 5

Anybody predict a big drop off with edge this year? Any other similar RB moves that come to mind?

 
Jerome Bettis, Curtis Martin, Marshall Faulk all increased fantasy Production upon switching teams in their primes. Ricky Watters was always productive in switching teams.

 
Ricky Williams monster year was after switching teams

Miami went from Lamar under 1000 yards at 3.1 a carry to Ricky at 1800+ at 4.8 a carry..after Ricky had been a 4 ypc back with 1200 yards in New Orleans

 
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Also, Dillon has had some decent production in NE. Stephen Davis' best years were in Carolina, not Wahington.

Also, I think that Priest Holmes guy did ok after switching teams. He had a 1k yd season in Blatimore so it was not a total surprise what he did in KC, but very surprising none the less.

 
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I don't think they are valid comparisons at all.

You're talking about completely different systems/coaches/players etc. All it's going to validate is that the guy is a good football player. Wouldn't you already know that?

The problem with Edge is his lack of TD production. He's going to go from running 5 yards before he gets touched by defenders because there's only five guys in the box, to running 5 yards before he gets touched by defenders because of his 370lb linemen.

He'll also go from losing TDs near the goal-line to Peyton Manning to losing TDs near the goal-line to Neil Rackers. Rather than losing TDs because Manning passes instead, he'll be losing them because of the collective ineptness of Kurt Warner to put the ball in the endzone.

Now, will the numbers make a difference? Not likely. You'll still see Edge with a fat yardage total, and you'll still see Edge with very few TDs.

 
I think the Portis drop off when he moved to Washington was more the result of the season ending injury to RT Jon Jansen just prior to the start of the 04 season .... last season the Washington O-Line was healthy pretty much all season long and Portis numbers reflected that ... placing him 6th in RB scoring with 244 points

352,1516,4.3,11, 41,30,216,7.2,0, 244,6

 
Yep, I think the key is whether the RB is going into a good or bad situation.

Portis went from a team with a long established history of success running the ball to a team with a weaker offensive line.

Edge seems to be going into a similar situation.

 
Portis was a whole lot younger and fresher than Edge when he switched teams.

Dillon seems like a better comparison.

 
Besides the obvious Marshall Faulk comparisons I think Ricky Watters going from a Great 1994 Superbowl Champion all time type Offense of the 49ers to a less impressive offense of Philadelphia is a decent comparison. Both Edge and Ricky were good sized guys who can do it all Run,Catch, Pass protect etc. Both were coming from complete top notch offenses and going to offenses that had some flaws still. Ricky Watters went from 1600 yards from scrimmage with 11 TDs in SF to 1700 yards from scrimmage with 12 TDs with less potent Philadelphia talent around him.

Next year in Philly he raised the numbers a similar amount going to about 1800 yards from scrimmage with 13 TDs

 
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I did a semi study on this a few years ago.

The reality was the sample size was small. Very rarely did RBs of Edge's caliber switch teams in their prime. Any back worth keeping would've never hit the FA market up until the mid 90s. We'll have a better sample size in another 20-30 years.

The recent results have been good though (Faulk, Dickerson, Portis, Bettis).

For now I'd just say... Edge is a good player. Eventually his talent should shine through. That in no way precludes him from struggling this year.

 
Travis Henry would be a cautionary tale..but then again he never was a stud..just a productive guy without much competition until McGahee got healthy.
Click to expand...
Travis Henry statistically outproduced Willis McGahee in every relevant category...
 
I'm not sure I would describe Edge has being in his prime. He had a solid season last year but he's got a lot of wear on his tires. And he has lost some of his burst since the ACL.

 
I'm not sure I would describe Edge has being in his prime. He had a solid season last year but he's got a lot of wear on his tires. And he has lost some of his burst since the ACL.
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Like I said earlier... this is a case by case basis. it'd be like trying to lump all of the automobile-related search and seizure Supreme Court cases together.... sure there are similarities, butt they all have so many different factors going into them.I really don't think there's any value to this thread in determining Edge's potential fantasy output by looking empirically at other stud backs who changed teams.

More likely, taking a look at how he runs in different types of plays for IND, and how ARI's offensive package looks and taking into account the differences in scheme will be a much better indicator.

Should email KC Joyner (thefootballscientist.com I believe is his website). Sounds like something he'd probably write a cool article about.

 
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