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- Thread starter David Dodds
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bigfishboy
Footballguy
I think the cut will be higher than before, but everyone is overreacting. 68% of teams DO NOT have Tomlinson, 76% DO NOT have Parker, 84% DO NOT have Gore, 82% DO NOT have Evans, and 92% DO NOT have Chad.With a cut of 33%, there has to be teams without these players that will make it.That's very true. As I mentioned above, if you don't have 2 or even 3 of that combo, it might be exit time. I went over 200, and wouldn't be suprised at all if I don't crack the top 100.With the %held of LT/Evans/Gore relative to the 1500 left, I think its almost a lock EVEYONE has at least 1 dog in that race. I just have Gore, and still feel very confident at 178 points, but as a previous poster said this week's cut line may be SICK!
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WisWolvrns
Footballguy
I would beg to differ. Since Oakland will probably not be a competitive game or a game in which SD falls behind 21+ points... LT won't be needed much. I would bet he gets a good dose of rest against Oakland and Turner carries a bunch of the load. It's not like it hasn't happened before, with LT not playing much in 2nd halves of games which are blowouts... it is Marty's M.O. This last stretch of games were all competitive and SD was playing from behind, so LT had to keep playing and scoring for SD to win.
Nugget
Footballguy
Well over 70% have Gore, I think Parker is over 60%. Evans is around 30%. It's on page 54.Edit to add exact #'sWillie Parker 32 64.6Frank Gore 10 78.1Lee Evans 14 30.6I think the cut will be higher than before, but everyone is overreacting. 68% of teams DO NOT have Tomlinson, 76% DO NOT have Parker, 84% DO NOT have Gore, 82% DO NOT have Evans, and 96% DO NOT have Chad.With a cut of 33%, there has to be teams without these players that will make it.That's very true. As I mentioned above, if you don't have 2 or even 3 of that combo, it might be exit time. I went over 200, and wouldn't be suprised at all if I don't crack the top 100.With the %held of LT/Evans/Gore relative to the 1500 left, I think its almost a lock EVEYONE has at least 1 dog in that race. I just have Gore, and still feel very confident at 178 points, but as a previous poster said this week's cut line may be SICK!
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C
CrossEyed
Guest
Hmmmm, good point. Let's hope for an early blowout (without too many LT TDs) and lots of Michael Turner.
Lucky to report that I have 3 of those 5 + Palmer...reporting in at 202 with the Giants Def. -5 on MNF...also have Jacobs, but there's no way I think he tops LT, or Gore's #s...good luck to the rest of you, I think I'm in the last 1,000.....With the %held of LT/Evans/Gore relative to the 1500 left, I think its almost a lock EVEYONE has at least 1 dog in that race. I just have Gore, and still feel very confident at 178 points, but as a previous poster said this week's cut line may be SICK!
bigfishboy
Footballguy
I was looking at page 54. I misunderstood this description "%OWN = percentage of still-alive rosters that have the given player. %LIVE = percentage of all rosters with the given player that are still alive." I read it as %OWN= percent that owned him at start, %LIVE= Percent still alive.I read that at least 6 times before posting because I didn't want to post false info. I read it 6 more times after you posted before I finally think I understand. Obviously, I reported numbers from the wrong column. I think I am an educated man, that description is difficult to figure. To add to your list:Tomlinson 24%Chad 3.6%Well over 70% have Gore, I think Parker is over 60%. Evans is around 30%. It's on page 54.Edit to add exact #'sWillie Parker 32 64.6Frank Gore 10 78.1Lee Evans 14 30.6I think the cut will be higher than before, but everyone is overreacting. 68% of teams DO NOT have Tomlinson, 76% DO NOT have Parker, 84% DO NOT have Gore, 82% DO NOT have Evans, and 96% DO NOT have Chad.With a cut of 33%, there has to be teams without these players that will make it.That's very true. As I mentioned above, if you don't have 2 or even 3 of that combo, it might be exit time. I went over 200, and wouldn't be suprised at all if I don't crack the top 100.With the %held of LT/Evans/Gore relative to the 1500 left, I think its almost a lock EVEYONE has at least 1 dog in that race. I just have Gore, and still feel very confident at 178 points, but as a previous poster said this week's cut line may be SICK!
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WisWolvrns
Footballguy
You're not the only one not catching the logic of the description...
Not clear to me. Oakland's D is actually looking pretty good. Lately, they have been in close, low scoring games. Not sure if they can stop LT too.
I have 1 of the 5 (Evans). It's getting even more amazing that my team is still in this.Lucky to report that I have 3 of those 5 + Palmer...reporting in at 202 with the Giants Def. -5 on MNF...also have Jacobs, but there's no way I think he tops LT, or Gore's #s...good luck to the rest of you, I think I'm in the last 1,000.....With the %held of LT/Evans/Gore relative to the 1500 left, I think its almost a lock EVEYONE has at least 1 dog in that race. I just have Gore, and still feel very confident at 178 points, but as a previous poster said this week's cut line may be SICK!
The Grizzly One
Footballguy
I guess I can wait until Tuesday morning to slit my wrists. Or tomorrow after Drinnen posts. Sitting at 150.4 and done. Doesn't look good, but I'll not give up yet. Although much associating with my old pal Jack Daniels and Mr. Smirnoff tonight.
Unofficial and preliminary pre-MNF cut is 148.3
Staggering.
Riffraff
Footballguy
Looks like I may play limbo this week. And under the cut is a bad thing.
Mapmaker
Footballguy
In with 200+
David Dodds
Administrator
This is getting nuts. I knew the cut line was going to be high with Tomlinson, Gore, Evans and Watson all having huge games. Next week will be interesting as the cut is 1/2 of the remaining rosters. And half from this group of survivors is going to be rough.
Is this better:You're not the only one not catching the logic of the description...
Code:
N = total number of entries.n = total number of live entries.NP = total number of entries that contain the given player.np = total number of live entries that contain the given player.n / N = 0.126%OWN = 100 * np / n.%LIVE = 100 * np / NP.WisWolvrns
Footballguy
Thx for the clarification! 
Otis
Footballguy
Once again, mathematical notation proves itself to be superior to English when it comes to describing mathematical quantities.Thx for the clarification!
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
152.8 with Wilford tonight, who needs to beat a 5.5 to bump my 3rd WR
Koya
Footballguy
Not looking good. I need a 20 point night from the Giants D so it looks like I am finally heading home. Needed a huge game from Javon Walker but it was not to be.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Bonzai
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
173.4 with Feely (-5.0) tonight. Onward and upward !
sinatravolta
Footballguy
Looks like the cut won't move much tonight:
Eli Manning 21 1.0 4.7
David Garrard 4 0.4 9.2
Maurice Jones-Drew 2 5.1 15.4
Brandon Jacobs 2 24.8 14.5
Fred Taylor 17 12.1 11.5
Tiki Barber 61 1.4 4.5
Ernest Wilford 5 16.1 13.1
Matt Jones 14 12.3 9.3
Reggie Williams 5 0.3 3.4
Plaxico Burress 30 2.5 8.1
Sinorice Moss 2 0.9 3.6
George Wrighster 1 0.0 0.0
Marcedes Lewis 1 2.4 10.7
Jeremy Shockey 22 0.9 8.8
Jay Feely 2 18.7 15.9
Josh Scobee 2 0.5 13.8
Jacksonville Jaguars 4 6.5 13.4
New York Giants 3 14.6 13.3
Only players who can make much of an impact are Jacobs, Feely, Wilford, Giants D, Taylor, Jones. And given the big days already by many commonly held RBs - Jacobs' chance of influencing the score of many rosters are slim.
Eli Manning 21 1.0 4.7
David Garrard 4 0.4 9.2
Maurice Jones-Drew 2 5.1 15.4
Brandon Jacobs 2 24.8 14.5
Fred Taylor 17 12.1 11.5
Tiki Barber 61 1.4 4.5
Ernest Wilford 5 16.1 13.1
Matt Jones 14 12.3 9.3
Reggie Williams 5 0.3 3.4
Plaxico Burress 30 2.5 8.1
Sinorice Moss 2 0.9 3.6
George Wrighster 1 0.0 0.0
Marcedes Lewis 1 2.4 10.7
Jeremy Shockey 22 0.9 8.8
Jay Feely 2 18.7 15.9
Josh Scobee 2 0.5 13.8
Jacksonville Jaguars 4 6.5 13.4
New York Giants 3 14.6 13.3
Only players who can make much of an impact are Jacobs, Feely, Wilford, Giants D, Taylor, Jones. And given the big days already by many commonly held RBs - Jacobs' chance of influencing the score of many rosters are slim.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
Did the staff partake in this contest separately like they did last time?I'm actually surprised the cut is so low, I was ready to punch my card this week.
videoguy505
Footballguy
Sigh. My math has me at 147 even. Only a big game by Tiki will probably push me over and keep me ahead of the cut line.
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Donny Loved Bowling
Footballguy
shuke said:God bless you, Miami defense.
The Grizzly One
Footballguy
Oh man, what a tease. I'm at 150.4 whichs looks like a sure exit. I don't think I could have dreamed up a more brutal way to exit this contest than what's happened this week. Of course there yet remains a slim (miricle needed) chance of staying in.
PlayaHata
Footballguy
I'm in the clubhouse at 166.7 for this week based on my calculations, which should be enough to move on. I seem to have many of the commonly held players on my roster - I can't tell if that's a good thing or a bad thing...
Code:
PRICE WK 1 WK 2 WK 3 WK 4 WK 5 WK 6 WK 7 WK 8 WK 9 WK10 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Brett Favre $14 6.5 28.0 28.5 8.2 15.0 0.0 19.7 18.5 16.4 25.2 Michael Vick $17 19.8 26.3 12.6 16.8 0.0 19.5 30.7 32.0 18.1 19.2 Peyton Manning $29 16.8 32.2 20.9 20.9 16.1 0.0 33.0 29.1 23.0 15.6 Willie Parker $32 15.8 5.6 27.6 0.0 17.3 22.8 4.7 19.1 32.7 36.5 Frank Gore $10 35.0 21.7 13.4 9.9 20.2 14.0 0.0 14.0 12.7 25.3 Warrick Dunn $33 15.2 13.4 6.6 7.5 0.0 20.6 12.9 9.3 16.1 14.8 Laurence Maroney $11 8.6 12.5 12.9 27.0 3.8 0.0 4.0 8.7 7.2 3.7 Jerious Norwood $ 2 6.6 6.7 0.0 16.6 0.0 2.1 7.9 10.0 4.9 0.0 Muhsin Muhammad $15 16.2 9.9 20.8 15.5 3.0 1.2 0.0 17.5 12.2 25.3 Lee Evans $14 4.5 3.9 18.7 16.0 24.4 16.2 2.1 0.0 13.8 12.0 Greg Jennings $ 2 1.5 18.7 19.1 13.6 21.5 0.0 2.4 0.0 11.9 6.8 Antonio Bryant $ 9 15.4 23.1 7.6 4.9 5.7 11.8 0.0 16.8 4.4 6.2 Reggie Brown $13 10.0 9.3 15.6 10.1 17.9 31.6 17.7 2.3 0.0 5.8 Terry Glenn $13 12.1 21.4 0.0 24.6 11.1 9.7 8.1 8.9 10.8 0.0 Nate Burleson $ 6 4.6 1.7 14.2 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 Heath Miller $ 7 19.1 2.1 6.4 0.0 4.2 2.6 8.4 3.0 8.4 12.0 Ben Watson $ 9 8.0 6.9 12.6 4.5 7.3 0.0 11.0 22.5 9.4 3.6 Josh Brown $ 2 9.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 0.0 12.0 7.0 4.0 10.0 6.0 Stephen Gostkowski $ 1 5.0 6.0 1.0 8.0 8.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 8.0 6.0 Chicago Bears $ 8 15.0 12.0 5.0 9.0 13.0 23.0 0.0 12.0 4.0 14.0 New England Patriots $ 3 5.0 6.0 0.0 8.0 7.0 0.0 8.0 12.0 7.0 3.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL 157.4 155.4 151.7 142.1 145.7 160.1 108.0 149.8 136.1 163.1 CUTOFF 0.0 123.7 125.3 106.8 102.0 109.5 101.2 121.5 129.8 136.4
C-Pod
Footballguy
With 171.3 - I'm in to the next week.
However, I get the sense that I'm gone after next week or I have no chance to win anything unless Tomlinson gets abducted by aliens.
The 50% cut next week will be brutal for non-LT2 owners if Tomlinson continues this pace. And I see little reason for the LT2 RB History Tour to stop when Oakland visits San Diego next week.
Going into week 11, there were approximately 360 LT2 owners.
Going into week 12, there will probably be about 350 LT2 owners.
60-63% of the final 500 could easily be LT2 owners.
However, I get the sense that I'm gone after next week or I have no chance to win anything unless Tomlinson gets abducted by aliens.
The 50% cut next week will be brutal for non-LT2 owners if Tomlinson continues this pace. And I see little reason for the LT2 RB History Tour to stop when Oakland visits San Diego next week.
Going into week 11, there were approximately 360 LT2 owners.
Going into week 12, there will probably be about 350 LT2 owners.
60-63% of the final 500 could easily be LT2 owners.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Doing okLT has been enzone magic, I just hope he keeps it going. With his help I should be over 200 pts this week.Losman, LT, FWP, Evans, Wayne, Edwards, Watson, Graham, Dallas DQuizGuy66 said:Hmm, wonder how my fellow LT2 owners are makin' out this week-QG
sinatravolta
Footballguy
I think you've got a good squad here. Yes - lots of common players, but you have guys that set you apart at QB and D and K. You need the common guys like Gore/Parker/Glenn/Evans to perform well, AND then to get some huge games at QB and on D. Biggest problem is not having LT2 which as everyone is talking about seems to be a must. Biggest plus is especially if Favre is ok that your QBs are way better than most people have left - with Simms/Warner/McNabb/Culpepper and others all gone for the year.
jamny
Footballguy
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Looks like the "cut-o-meter" was reasonably well calibrated last night. Felt like the cut would be 150-160 guessing in the dark and it looks very much like that is where it will land when the dust settles. Reviewing the post with potential cut influences tonight I'd worry most about Wilford, Jones, Feeley, and the Giants D. With just that as potent ammo, I'd doubt it moves much more than 5 points.Hoping LT bombs in weeks 13-16, since I will be one of the very few who may make it without him....Doug Drinen said:
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nashua55
Footballguy
amen!!! i am another LT2less owner. without the point machine, the 25000 shacks is a pipedreamHoping LT bombs in weeks 13-16, since I will be one of the very few who may make it without him....Doug Drinen said:
LT owner here who turned on LT last night. I went into the game with 187 in the bag and was hoping he'd have bad game and thin out the ranks of LT owners. Except for this event I've never had LT on any fantasy team before so I guess I should enjoy him while this, and my team, lasts.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
So this could help you. If LT2 were to have a down week, those people might suffer greatly.
nashua55
Footballguy
very good point, but not being an LT2 owner, i dont like my chances. these days an off week for LT would be 2td, 80yds rush, and 4 catches for 30 yds
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Bad thing is that after week 12, one bad week by LT isnt a big deal, given that he has a bit of history in thowing up other weeks that are huge. If you spend the cash on him in something like this, the risk is that you won't have the depth to run for 12 weeks. One you make it, you are in an awfully good spot to do something big. Whats surprising is just how many look like they will make it. Myself relying on FWP/Gore/Bush isn't very comforting, as I'd think that many of the LT2 owners will also have a part of that combo too. I'm just hoping my WR and TE depth can set me apart from the crowd...
