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- Thread starter David Dodds
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Just so we're on record:
During this four-week run, scoring is final when posted on Tuesday morning of each week.
During this four-week run, scoring is final when posted on Tuesday morning of each week.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
you're on you own for now. no real need for complicated spreadsheets though unless you want to calculate bulk scores. Everyone should be able to pretty easily run the numbers right off the nfl.com stats pages. Only stat that isn't always easy is the Defense, as sacks don't always work quite right.
TAKE HEART NOT A HIGH SCORING WEEK:
ALL PLAYERS W/100+ OWNERS:
QB: PALMER-216-15.4/DELHOMME-132-?/KITNA-126-17.6
RB:GORE-434-11.8/PARKER-279-9.6/LT2-188-34.2/JACOBS-149-10.1/NORWOOD-135-16.7/BUSH-132-49.8
WR:GLENN-344-9.2/HOUSH-248-26.6/WILLIAMSOM-224-0/EVANS-203-9.5/EDWARDS-203-12.6/
JENNINGS-202-3.4/GABRIEL-140-2.2/ROY WILLIAMS-139-8.0/MI.CLAYTON125-10.0/WAYNE-125-8.7/
BRYANT-104-17.9
TE:WATSON-444-7.1
ANYONE WITH BUSH-LT2-HOUSH LOOKING REAL GOOD.
ALL #'S APPROXIMATE--OF COURSE.
ALL PLAYERS W/100+ OWNERS:
QB: PALMER-216-15.4/DELHOMME-132-?/KITNA-126-17.6
RB:GORE-434-11.8/PARKER-279-9.6/LT2-188-34.2/JACOBS-149-10.1/NORWOOD-135-16.7/BUSH-132-49.8
WR:GLENN-344-9.2/HOUSH-248-26.6/WILLIAMSOM-224-0/EVANS-203-9.5/EDWARDS-203-12.6/
JENNINGS-202-3.4/GABRIEL-140-2.2/ROY WILLIAMS-139-8.0/MI.CLAYTON125-10.0/WAYNE-125-8.7/
BRYANT-104-17.9
TE:WATSON-444-7.1
ANYONE WITH BUSH-LT2-HOUSH LOOKING REAL GOOD.
ALL #'S APPROXIMATE--OF COURSE.
I'm right with you. Looks like 164.25 if my math is correct. After finishing 15th last week, I hope I don't fall too far this week.
buckeye35
Footballguy
Man, heck of a week for my season-low! I'm at 129.5 with L.J. Smith and Reggie Brown still to play. Best case scenario puts me in the 140's.
I would imagine other Gore/Parker owners got beat up this week too. I have Norwood and Barber III, but I was looking for a big one out of one of those other two.
I would imagine other Gore/Parker owners got beat up this week too. I have Norwood and Barber III, but I was looking for a big one out of one of those other two.
pigskinliquors
Dr. Parrothead
I'm also a Gore/Parker owner, but R. Bush bailed me out. I'm still not doing great as I have 151 w/ Kasay (-2) and Keyshawn (-13.1) still alive.
go Delhomme!!! 
got me up to a somewhat respectable 125.45 points.
Delhomme (24.45), Norwood (16.7), Gore (11.8), Housh (26.6), Edwards (12.6), Glenn (9.2), Watson (7.1), J. Brown (11), Miami (6)
Not good by any means, but better than the 109 or so I was holding pre-Brown and Delhomme.
got me up to a somewhat respectable 125.45 points.
Delhomme (24.45), Norwood (16.7), Gore (11.8), Housh (26.6), Edwards (12.6), Glenn (9.2), Watson (7.1), J. Brown (11), Miami (6)
Not good by any means, but better than the 109 or so I was holding pre-Brown and Delhomme.
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Hate to say this, but this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500. I looked at many of the top lineups and they're stacked with the commonly held players. For example the guy below in the #1 spot has Gore, Bush, LT, Housh, Glenn, Jennings, ans Watson owners in a pickle. They most likely need to root against their own players. I've been stating that defense would be a huge determining factor in this contest and the 15 from Oakland has basically differentiate this guy from the others in the top 30.
Code:
Jake Delhomme $15 24.45 Peyton Manning $29 20.05 J.P. Losman $ 6 17.80 Reggie Bush $22 49.80 LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20 Marion Barber III $10 19.60 Frank Gore $10 11.80 Derrick Blaylock $ 1 0.00 T.J. Houshmandzadeh $23 26.60 Donte Stallworth $14 21.10 Marty Booker $ 2 17.10 Terry Glenn $13 9.20 Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40 Kevin Curtis $ 5 2.60 Troy Williamson $ 4 0.00 Ben Watson $ 9 7.10 Courtney Anderson $ 1 3.80 Stephen Gostkowski $ 1 8.00 Shayne Graham $ 3 7.00 Oakland Raiders $ 1 15.00 Carolina Panthers $ 8 1.00 ---------------------------------TOTAL 203.35
Gamblor
Footballguy
I would have had first place this week, but I didnt have LT, Bush, Gonzo, Housh, etc on my team. Always a day late and a dollar short.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I'm feelin' your pain - I woulda been #12 - by far my best showing of this contest :(Hmm, maybe adding up by post-boot scores isn't the greatest idea
-QG
David Dodds
Administrator
I predict that it will take over 680 points to win (averaging 170 per week). Some of these teams are clearly stacked.
Silverbacks
Footballguy
Sitting at #57 currently. 
ScoobySnack
Footballguy
Sitting at #76 atleast I am off to a good start and still have a shot
atleast I am off to a good start and still have a shot 
hove
Footballguy
#210. Better than I thought, but way too far from first. I'm guess I'm hoping to make the top 200.
pigskinliquors
Dr. Parrothead
I'm #112. 
Fruitbat
Footballguy
I don't know if this is necessarily true, and it isn't unexpected. the teams near the top should be very similar. it will come down to token players.I'm sitting #16BassNBrew said:
with LT/Bush/Gore/Glenn/Jennings/Watson in common with this team. But all I need is a big week from someone like Carson Palmer, Ahman Green, etc to move up. Matt Jones coming alive is helping!
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Raiders
Footballguy
PRICE WK13
----------------------------------
Peyton Manning $29 20.05
Matt Leinart $ 5 13.30
Alex Smith $ 7 9.55
Reggie Bush $22 49.80
LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20
Frank Gore $10 11.80
Vernand Morency $ 1 8.70
T.J. Duckett $ 2 0.90
Matt Jones $14 24.80
Antonio Bryant $ 9 17.90
Michael Clayton $ 9 10.00
Roy Williams $27 8.00
Laveranues Coles $19 5.80
Ernest Wilford $ 5 5.30
Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40
Courtney Anderson $ 1 3.80
L.J. Smith $10 0.00
Shayne Graham $ 3 7.00
Sebastian Janikowski $ 1 2.00
Arizona Cardinals $ 2 10.00
St. Louis Rams $ 1 1.00
---------------------------------
TOTAL 177.55
39th right now... Although there arent many ways to make up points on people. I need Alex Smith, L Coles, E Wilford, M Jones, C Anderson, and both mof my DF's to really step it up if I want to win this thing.
----------------------------------
Peyton Manning $29 20.05
Matt Leinart $ 5 13.30
Alex Smith $ 7 9.55
Reggie Bush $22 49.80
LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20
Frank Gore $10 11.80
Vernand Morency $ 1 8.70
T.J. Duckett $ 2 0.90
Matt Jones $14 24.80
Antonio Bryant $ 9 17.90
Michael Clayton $ 9 10.00
Roy Williams $27 8.00
Laveranues Coles $19 5.80
Ernest Wilford $ 5 5.30
Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40
Courtney Anderson $ 1 3.80
L.J. Smith $10 0.00
Shayne Graham $ 3 7.00
Sebastian Janikowski $ 1 2.00
Arizona Cardinals $ 2 10.00
St. Louis Rams $ 1 1.00
---------------------------------
TOTAL 177.55
39th right now... Although there arent many ways to make up points on people. I need Alex Smith, L Coles, E Wilford, M Jones, C Anderson, and both mof my DF's to really step it up if I want to win this thing.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
I can't complain. Have Dellhome-LT2-Parker-Bush-Jacobs-Housh-Bryant-Edwards-Glenn-Jennings and Watson like everyone else but I'm going to need one of my secret weapons (Maurice Jones Drew and Reche Caldwell) to put up a couple of nice 100 yard 2TD weeks in order to seperate myself from the pack. As long as Gore doesn't go nuts (or one of my RB's matches his production)....I'll be alright.
Yeah, I disagree, too, that "this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500." Each week, the teams at or near the top look very similar. But things can change a lot from week to week, and most of the teams at the top one week can find themselves in the middle or below in succeeding weeks. Look at the teams that were at or near the top in Week 10 -- 9 of the top-30 were eliminated from the final 500, and many others dropped a lot.Would you bet that the winner will come from among the top-10 (in Week 13) vs. the field? What about the top-25 vs. the field? Or the top-50? What odds would you give that the winner will come from the bottom 400 rosters according to Week 13 scoring? What about bottom 300, or lowest 50% in Week 13? I don't know how you could estimate where the 50% odds would be (top so many vs. the field), but I think I would take the field vs. the top-25 and maybe the top-50.I also disagree that "defense would be a huge determining factor in this contest." Each week a couple DST's score high, but I don't think DST's will be a large determining factor over the 4-week period from Week 13 to Week 16. If you looked at it using "value pts" like in VBD, I think K's would be least valuable, followed by DST. I don't know where QBs, RBs, WRs or TEs would rank according to value pts. given the characteristics of this contest.Fruitbat said:I don't know if this is necessarily true, and it isn't unexpected. the teams near the top should be very similar. it will come down to token players.I'm sitting #16BassNBrew said:
i think this is more true then one of the previous posters saying that the contest is essentially over or dependent upon DEF scoring....considering that those who replied after the final cut showed an average after byes of ~150, i suspect scoring a total of 650 or more should put you right near the top. it's all about consistency. one week i broke 200 and was #5 overall...the next i was sweating bullets to make the cut.
Gamblor
Footballguy
huh
Runaway Glory
Footballguy
Sitting at #1 for the First time and odds are I can't do it everyweek But hopefully a couple of my guys can get crazy hot for a few weeks to at least keep the Dream alive.. 
Anyways good luck everyone
marcel
Anyways good luck everyone
marcel
Army Eye
Footballguy
Do you mean actual members of the FBG staff? I don't think they're playing.
Kirby
Footballguy
That's what it's going to take... mine are McAllister and Holt.
Panzer
Footballguy
What I was trying to say was FBG subscribers, somebody who paid to access Joe and company's site. I ought to proof read my stuff a little bit more.
David Dodds
Administrator
I'm guessing almost all are subscribers. Approximately 12,000 people are in the contest. We did draw 300 names from the free mailing list that were invited to play. Not all of these people took us up on the offer. So roughly 11,800 of the 12,000 entries were subscribers. I don't really see the point in researching the final 500 (to find out how many are subscribers), but I would guess the percentages likely held about the same (meaning between 8 and 10 non-subscribers made the final cut)What I was trying to say was FBG subscribers, somebody who paid to access Joe and company's site. I ought to proof read my stuff a little bit more.
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I wouldn't use this as one of your reasons to subscribe.I'm guessing almost all are subscribers. Approximately 12,000 people are in the contest. We did draw 300 names from the free mailing list that were invited to play. Not all of these people took us up on the offer. So roughly 11,800 of the 12,000 entries were subscribers. I don't really see the point in researching the final 500 (to find out how many are subscribers), but I would guess the percentages likely held about the same (meaning between 8 and 10 non-subscribers made the final cut)What I was trying to say was FBG subscribers, somebody who paid to access Joe and company's site. I ought to proof read my stuff a little bit more.
I think you're supporting my point.Yeah, I disagree, too, that "this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500." Each week, the teams at or near the top look very similar. But things can change a lot from week to week, and most of the teams at the top one week can find themselves in the middle or below in succeeding weeks. Look at the teams that were at or near the top in Week 10 -- 9 of the top-30 were eliminated from the final 500, and many others dropped a lot.Would you bet that the winner will come from among the top-10 (in Week 13) vs. the field? What about the top-25 vs. the field? Or the top-50? What odds would you give that the winner will come from the bottom 400 rosters according to Week 13 scoring? What about bottom 300, or lowest 50% in Week 13? I don't know how you could estimate where the 50% odds would be (top so many vs. the field), but I think I would take the field vs. the top-25 and maybe the top-50.I also disagree that "defense would be a huge determining factor in this contest." Each week a couple DST's score high, but I don't think DST's will be a large determining factor over the 4-week period from Week 13 to Week 16. If you looked at it using "value pts" like in VBD, I think K's would be least valuable, followed by DST. I don't know where QBs, RBs, WRs or TEs would rank according to value pts. given the characteristics of this contest.I don't know if this is necessarily true, and it isn't unexpected. the teams near the top should be very similar. it will come down to token players.I'm sitting #16
Just for giggles, let's look at the #99 team v. the #1 team.
Carson Palmer $22 15.40
Chris Simms $10 0.00
Brad Johnson $10 -0.05
LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20 ditto
Corey Dillon $25 22.00
Jerious Norwood $ 2 16.70
Frank Gore $10 11.80 ditto
Brandon Jacobs $ 2 10.10
T.J. Houshmandzadeh $23 26.60 ditto
Chris Chambers $39 20.10
Braylon Edwards $ 2 12.60
Terry Glenn $13 9.20 ditto
Marcus Robinson $ 1 8.70
Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40 ditto
David Boston $ 1 0.00
Ben Watson $ 9 7.10 ditto
Marcedes Lewis $ 1 0.00
John Carney $ 1 10.00
Sebastian Janikowski $ 1 2.00
New England Patriots $ 3 15.00
Cincinnati Bengals $ 2 2.00
---------------------------------
TOTAL 163.00
Jake Delhomme $15 24.45
Peyton Manning $29 20.05
J.P. Losman $ 6 17.80
Reggie Bush $22 49.80
LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20
Marion Barber III $10 19.60
Frank Gore $10 11.80
Derrick Blaylock $ 1 0.00
T.J. Houshmandzadeh $23 26.60
Donte Stallworth $14 21.10
Marty Booker $ 2 17.10
Terry Glenn $13 9.20
Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40
Kevin Curtis $ 5 2.60
Troy Williamson $ 4 0.00
Ben Watson $ 9 7.10
Courtney Anderson $ 1 3.80
Stephen Gostkowski $ 1 8.00
Shayne Graham $ 3 7.00
Oakland Raiders $ 1 15.00
Carolina Panthers $ 8 1.00
#99 is roughly 50 points backs. Nothing is common at QB, but what can we expect to be gained here? 15 pts would be huge in a given week. LT and Gore cancel each other out. Actually #99 needs one of them to tank while Dillon/Norwood/Jacobs light it up and Barber and Bush lay an egg. My earlier point was that for teams to move up when they have so many players in common, they have to root against their own players which might leave the door open for a non-typical team. At WR Housh/Glenn/Jennings cancel each other out. Boston isn't playing so Chambers/Edwards/Robinson have to outperform the common WRs and surpass Stallworth. Once again the circumstances available to make up large chunks of ground aren't numerous. At TE after Watson we are left with Lewis v. Anderson...is Lewis playing? The defenses are unique and it took a huge week from #99 Pats just to place as well as they did. If #99 had the Panthers rather then the Pats last week they'd be sitting roughly at #180....hence my point that defenses will be huge players in the outcome of this contest.
Looks like only 5 of the top 50 don't have Bush on their team. In order to compete for the title, those lagging will need a Bush type performance from one of their not so common players. Yes it can happen, but it's looks like a 1 in 10 shot on an given week, hence my comment that many teams have effectively been eliminated.
Carson Palmer $22 15.40
Chris Simms $10 0.00
Brad Johnson $10 -0.05
LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20 ditto
Corey Dillon $25 22.00
Jerious Norwood $ 2 16.70
Frank Gore $10 11.80 ditto
Brandon Jacobs $ 2 10.10
T.J. Houshmandzadeh $23 26.60 ditto
Chris Chambers $39 20.10
Braylon Edwards $ 2 12.60
Terry Glenn $13 9.20 ditto
Marcus Robinson $ 1 8.70
Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40 ditto
David Boston $ 1 0.00
Ben Watson $ 9 7.10 ditto
Marcedes Lewis $ 1 0.00
John Carney $ 1 10.00
Sebastian Janikowski $ 1 2.00
New England Patriots $ 3 15.00
Cincinnati Bengals $ 2 2.00
---------------------------------
TOTAL 163.00
Jake Delhomme $15 24.45
Peyton Manning $29 20.05
J.P. Losman $ 6 17.80
Reggie Bush $22 49.80
LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20
Marion Barber III $10 19.60
Frank Gore $10 11.80
Derrick Blaylock $ 1 0.00
T.J. Houshmandzadeh $23 26.60
Donte Stallworth $14 21.10
Marty Booker $ 2 17.10
Terry Glenn $13 9.20
Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40
Kevin Curtis $ 5 2.60
Troy Williamson $ 4 0.00
Ben Watson $ 9 7.10
Courtney Anderson $ 1 3.80
Stephen Gostkowski $ 1 8.00
Shayne Graham $ 3 7.00
Oakland Raiders $ 1 15.00
Carolina Panthers $ 8 1.00
#99 is roughly 50 points backs. Nothing is common at QB, but what can we expect to be gained here? 15 pts would be huge in a given week. LT and Gore cancel each other out. Actually #99 needs one of them to tank while Dillon/Norwood/Jacobs light it up and Barber and Bush lay an egg. My earlier point was that for teams to move up when they have so many players in common, they have to root against their own players which might leave the door open for a non-typical team. At WR Housh/Glenn/Jennings cancel each other out. Boston isn't playing so Chambers/Edwards/Robinson have to outperform the common WRs and surpass Stallworth. Once again the circumstances available to make up large chunks of ground aren't numerous. At TE after Watson we are left with Lewis v. Anderson...is Lewis playing? The defenses are unique and it took a huge week from #99 Pats just to place as well as they did. If #99 had the Panthers rather then the Pats last week they'd be sitting roughly at #180....hence my point that defenses will be huge players in the outcome of this contest.
Looks like only 5 of the top 50 don't have Bush on their team. In order to compete for the title, those lagging will need a Bush type performance from one of their not so common players. Yes it can happen, but it's looks like a 1 in 10 shot on an given week, hence my comment that many teams have effectively been eliminated.
Army Eye
Footballguy
Ok. That's actually what I interpreted it as at first, but I didn't think the question made much sense. The game is only for subscribers after all - the handful of e-mail freebie entries being the only exception.What I was trying to say was FBG subscribers, somebody who paid to access Joe and company's site. I ought to proof read my stuff a little bit more.
Not sure exactly how to interpret your statement bolded above. If "this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500" means that most of the 501 rosters have a disproportionately low probability of winning the contest, given the Week 13 results, then I respectfully disagree. I agree that any of the highest scorers in Week 13 has a leg up and each of them has a better chance of winning the contest than any of the rosters that are not among the highest scorers. However, I assume your statement implies that the highest scorers in Week 13 have a disproportionate chance of winning, compared to the remaining rosters, and I disagree with this assessment.
For example, I'll give you the top-100 scorers based on Week 13 results. And I'll bet you $1.00 that the winner does not come from among the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
I'll wager you another dollar that more than half of the top-5 scorers in the contest (over Weeks 13-16) do not come from the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
I'll bet you a 3rd dollar that more than half of the top-25 scorers in the contest at the end of Week 16 are not from among the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
Each of these bets would be a test of your statement that "this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500." I may be wrong and you may be right -- I have no way of proving that any of the above bets is actually a good bet from my perspective. However, that's my gut feeling about the probabilities that are involved. I guess time will tell.
franks&beans
Footballguy
I hope he takes you up on that bet and that you win $3, since I am sitting at 501 after last week, I like your thinking.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
To illustrate the point of the stranglehold the top may already have, I think I can pull data on 4 week stretches of the top contenders for the earlier weeks of the contest. I tend to agree with the posters indicating if your not at or near the top already, it will be VERY hard to get there. I may be wrong on this but the data should tell us how easy/hard it is to make up ground. However, as generally similar as all of our rosters now are, the only real way I can see someone coming from behind is to have a 1-2% held guy on their team absolutely crush the popular players at his position on a given week. My only chance for this is Gates. Other than him, all my players are at least 15-20% held and several are over 50%. Fortunately, if almost ANY common player goes off I probably have him, so I shouldn't miss out on big points (except LT).
The analysis seems like a good day project as my wife finally got me to contribute to the family population control program.
You can only watch so much sportscenter in a day!
sitting in the top 80 here...GO GATES!
The analysis seems like a good day project as my wife finally got me to contribute to the family population control program.
You can only watch so much sportscenter in a day!sitting in the top 80 here...GO GATES!
C-Pod
Footballguy
You, me, and at least 100 other people with FWP and EdwardsMy math is probably flawed on that though
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ctriopelle
Footballguy
Rank Player RANK10 RANK11 RANK12 RANK13 4WEEK1 Lyle Reger 27 20 9 52 767.302 Travis Shaw 6 1 54 305 759.203 Justin Koneck 134 10 149 7 757.254 Mike Pontius 46 24 35 45 751.705 Ryan Hatton 3 47 199 81 748.606 Jeff Rivard 14 2 270 197 744.457 Bart Glenn 173 30 60 8 743.958 Mark Wallace 34 63 5 130 742.759 Adam Warshowsky 271 6 129 19 742.7010 Marc Dinerman 179 23 229 25 725.00sorry my formatting still stinks, but I stand corrected about the ability to come from behind. This is a list of players and their rank within the survivors since week 10 (first late week without byes). The leader had only one top ten week, and that was just ninth. So, its not over yet, but you'd better be consistent!I'll keep working on the format, but I wanted to get the analysis out here...
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ctriopelle
Footballguy
count me in that group as well! (except that I also have Gore, Bush, and Watson)
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