I'll accept all three of your wagers in good fun if you track it here on a weekly basis.Not sure exactly how to interpret your statement bolded above. If "this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500" means that most of the 501 rosters have a disproportionately low probability of winning the contest, given the Week 13 results, then I respectfully disagree. I agree that any of the highest scorers in Week 13 has a leg up and each of them has a better chance of winning the contest than any of the rosters that are not among the highest scorers. However, I assume your statement implies that the highest scorers in Week 13 have a disproportionate chance of winning, compared to the remaining rosters, and I disagree with this assessment.Hate to say this, but this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500. I looked at many of the top lineups and they're stacked with the commonly held players. For example the guy below in the #1 spot has Gore, Bush, LT, Housh, Glenn, Jennings, ans Watson owners in a pickle. They most likely need to root against their own players. I've been stating that defense would be a huge determining factor in this contest and the 15 from Oakland has basically differentiate this guy from the others in the top 30.
Jake Delhomme $15 24.45 Peyton Manning $29 20.05 J.P. Losman $ 6 17.80 Reggie Bush $22 49.80 LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20 Marion Barber III $10 19.60 Frank Gore $10 11.80 Derrick Blaylock $ 1 0.00 T.J. Houshmandzadeh $23 26.60 Donte Stallworth $14 21.10 Marty Booker $ 2 17.10 Terry Glenn $13 9.20 Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40 Kevin Curtis $ 5 2.60 Troy Williamson $ 4 0.00 Ben Watson $ 9 7.10 Courtney Anderson $ 1 3.80 Stephen Gostkowski $ 1 8.00 Shayne Graham $ 3 7.00 Oakland Raiders $ 1 15.00 Carolina Panthers $ 8 1.00 ---------------------------------TOTAL 203.35
For example, I'll give you the top-100 scorers based on Week 13 results. And I'll bet you $1.00 that the winner does not come from among the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
I'll wager you another dollar that more than half of the top-5 scorers in the contest (over Weeks 13-16) do not come from the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
I'll bet you a 3rd dollar that more than half of the top-25 scorers in the contest at the end of Week 16 are not from among the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
Each of these bets would be a test of your statement that "this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500." I may be wrong and you may be right -- I have no way of proving that any of the above bets is actually a good bet from my perspective. However, that's my gut feeling about the probabilities that are involved. I guess time will tell.
Just my gut instinct here, but I think the ability to come from behind has been reduced as the season progresses. The deeper we've moved into the season, the more the top 500 have evolved into becoming more similiar. More similiarity equates to less ability to leap frog others.sorry my formatting still stinks, but I stand corrected about the ability to come from behind. This is a list of players and their rank within the survivors since week 10 (first late week without byes). The leader had only one top ten week, and that was just ninth. So, its not over yet, but you'd better be consistent!I'll keep working on the format, but I wanted to get the analysis out here...Code:Rank Player RANK10 RANK11 RANK12 RANK13 4WEEK1 Lyle Reger 27 20 9 52 767.302 Travis Shaw 6 1 54 305 759.203 Justin Koneck 134 10 149 7 757.254 Mike Pontius 46 24 35 45 751.705 Ryan Hatton 3 47 199 81 748.606 Jeff Rivard 14 2 270 197 744.457 Bart Glenn 173 30 60 8 743.958 Mark Wallace 34 63 5 130 742.759 Adam Warshowsky 271 6 129 19 742.7010 Marc Dinerman 179 23 229 25 725.00
interesting bets if you look at my analysis at the bottom of the last page (67). kinda depends on what type of week last week ends up being in the grand scheme. a couple of weeks end up where the top guys did very badly but for the most part the top scores are top 50's . I'd put odds on the original poster at about 2:1Also I think Dodds called the top guy needing at least 680. The last 4 weeks scoring (of just those still alive) had the top 10 scores over 725....better get your game on!I'll accept all three of your wagers in good fun if you track it here on a weekly basis.Not sure exactly how to interpret your statement bolded above. If "this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500" means that most of the 501 rosters have a disproportionately low probability of winning the contest, given the Week 13 results, then I respectfully disagree. I agree that any of the highest scorers in Week 13 has a leg up and each of them has a better chance of winning the contest than any of the rosters that are not among the highest scorers. However, I assume your statement implies that the highest scorers in Week 13 have a disproportionate chance of winning, compared to the remaining rosters, and I disagree with this assessment.Hate to say this, but this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500. I looked at many of the top lineups and they're stacked with the commonly held players. For example the guy below in the #1 spot has Gore, Bush, LT, Housh, Glenn, Jennings, ans Watson owners in a pickle. They most likely need to root against their own players. I've been stating that defense would be a huge determining factor in this contest and the 15 from Oakland has basically differentiate this guy from the others in the top 30.
For example, I'll give you the top-100 scorers based on Week 13 results. And I'll bet you $1.00 that the winner does not come from among the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
I'll wager you another dollar that more than half of the top-5 scorers in the contest (over Weeks 13-16) do not come from the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
I'll bet you a 3rd dollar that more than half of the top-25 scorers in the contest at the end of Week 16 are not from among the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
Each of these bets would be a test of your statement that "this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500." I may be wrong and you may be right -- I have no way of proving that any of the above bets is actually a good bet from my perspective. However, that's my gut feeling about the probabilities that are involved. I guess time will tell.
realize that the data presented represents the only the teams we have left. oddly enough, several teams in the top 10 has VERY bad weeks, as low as 300+ in one case. so it CAN be done, you just need several good weeks to overcome a bad week.Just my gut instinct here, but I think the ability to come from behind has been reduced as the season progresses. The deeper we've moved into the season, the more the top 500 have evolved into becoming more similiar. More similiarity equates to less ability to leap frog others.
Will do. I'm kind of interested to see what happens to the top-100 Week 13 scorers over the next 3 weeks. I expect there will be some dispersion week-by-week, as other players have big weeks. But I really have no idea how quickly, or to what extent, the dispersion (from the top-100, to be replaced by rosters in the lower 401) will occur. Or how many of the lower 401 will crack the top-5 or top-25 by the end of the contest.BassNBrew said:I'll accept all three of your wagers in good fun if you track it here on a weekly basis.Not sure exactly how to interpret your statement bolded above. If "this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500" means that most of the 501 rosters have a disproportionately low probability of winning the contest, given the Week 13 results, then I respectfully disagree. I agree that any of the highest scorers in Week 13 has a leg up and each of them has a better chance of winning the contest than any of the rosters that are not among the highest scorers. However, I assume your statement implies that the highest scorers in Week 13 have a disproportionate chance of winning, compared to the remaining rosters, and I disagree with this assessment.Hate to say this, but this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500. I looked at many of the top lineups and they're stacked with the commonly held players. For example the guy below in the #1 spot has Gore, Bush, LT, Housh, Glenn, Jennings, ans Watson owners in a pickle. They most likely need to root against their own players. I've been stating that defense would be a huge determining factor in this contest and the 15 from Oakland has basically differentiate this guy from the others in the top 30.
Jake Delhomme $15 24.45 Peyton Manning $29 20.05 J.P. Losman $ 6 17.80 Reggie Bush $22 49.80 LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20 Marion Barber III $10 19.60 Frank Gore $10 11.80 Derrick Blaylock $ 1 0.00 T.J. Houshmandzadeh $23 26.60 Donte Stallworth $14 21.10 Marty Booker $ 2 17.10 Terry Glenn $13 9.20 Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40 Kevin Curtis $ 5 2.60 Troy Williamson $ 4 0.00 Ben Watson $ 9 7.10 Courtney Anderson $ 1 3.80 Stephen Gostkowski $ 1 8.00 Shayne Graham $ 3 7.00 Oakland Raiders $ 1 15.00 Carolina Panthers $ 8 1.00 ---------------------------------TOTAL 203.35
For example, I'll give you the top-100 scorers based on Week 13 results. And I'll bet you $1.00 that the winner does not come from among the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
I'll wager you another dollar that more than half of the top-5 scorers in the contest (over Weeks 13-16) do not come from the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
I'll bet you a 3rd dollar that more than half of the top-25 scorers in the contest at the end of Week 16 are not from among the top-100 Week 13 scorers.
Each of these bets would be a test of your statement that "this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500." I may be wrong and you may be right -- I have no way of proving that any of the above bets is actually a good bet from my perspective. However, that's my gut feeling about the probabilities that are involved. I guess time will tell.
Thanks for the data! If you look at the rank in the 1st week, 3 were in the top-10, 1 was in the 20's, 1 was in the 30's, 1 was in the 40's, 2 came from 101-200, and the final one came from 201-300. Only 1 of the rosters ranked 101+ in the 1st week cracked the top-5 (over the 4-week period), and only 3 of the 101+ cracked the top-10.This is kind of what I expected. Looks like I'm a definite underdog regarding the 3 bets. But I've got a fighting chance, so it could be worse.ctriopelle said:sorry my formatting still stinks, but I stand corrected about the ability to come from behind. This is a list of players and their rank within the survivors since week 10 (first late week without byes). The leader had only one top ten week, and that was just ninth. So, its not over yet, but you'd better be consistent!I'll keep working on the format, but I wanted to get the analysis out here...Code:Rank Player RANK10 RANK11 RANK12 RANK13 4WEEK1 Lyle Reger 27 20 9 52 767.302 Travis Shaw 6 1 54 305 759.203 Justin Koneck 134 10 149 7 757.254 Mike Pontius 46 24 35 45 751.705 Ryan Hatton 3 47 199 81 748.606 Jeff Rivard 14 2 270 197 744.457 Bart Glenn 173 30 60 8 743.958 Mark Wallace 34 63 5 130 742.759 Adam Warshowsky 271 6 129 19 742.7010 Marc Dinerman 179 23 229 25 725.00
Incredible. Just when you think Tomlinson is going to finally have a subpar game.. look what happens
I own LT2 and since I already had Jones Drew and Parker, this will probably be the only week that I'm rooting for him to have a bad game.
how about us watson/gates owners?Good, keep posting some high numbers so my eliminated crew doesn't look so goodI'd be at 164.7 + (Bush - 25.2), for a cumulative of 351.15 if Bush doesn't pass him.Congrats to the Watson/Scheffler owners who finally got something out of their #2
-QG
Sure will be, that said I'm sticking to my theory that defense and TE2 will be the key difference maker. You can substitute in TE1 for the small number of non-Watson owners.Nice week by the way.193.05how'd I do that?!??!! Something tells me that is going to be a very good score this week based on the scoring so far.everyone can stop scoring now this week...except the FG the Bears need to win on MNF...
edited to add that I can't add today....
Thanks. Just need Glenn and Bush to be only mediocre tonight (but a nice score by Bush would definitely help my money league playoff chances this week!).2 week total is at about 358 as of now, but if Bush and Glenn can top Gore and Wayne I'll be moving up...Sure will be, that said I'm sticking to my theory that defense and TE2 will be the key difference maker. You can substitute in TE1 for the small number of non-Watson owners.Nice week by the way.
My 283.7 sure looks piss poor compared to you2 week total is at about 358 as of now, but if Bush and Glenn can top Gore and Wayne I'll be moving up...
Okay, okay, just because Gates is keepin' me on life support in my regular fantasy football playoffsctriopelle said:how about us watson/gates owners?QuizGuy66 said:Good, keep posting some high numbers so my eliminated crew doesn't look so goodI'd be at 164.7 + (Bush - 25.2), for a cumulative of 351.15 if Bush doesn't pass him.Congrats to the Watson/Scheffler owners who finally got something out of their #2
-QG
As for Scheffler, this is the first time all year that he would used over Watson, hence the note.Please somebody post a 2-week total higher than 355.15. Maybe keepin' track post-elimination wasn't the brightest of ideas...-QG
This is what I kind of suspected after last week...people are going to have to root against their own players.Decent rebound week, but with two runningbacks not used both scoring over 25 points, it seems like a waste. Too little too late for me.
If these top 9 stay near or at the top, then my 350.15 two week total should keep me within striking distance of the top 12.I totaled up the top 9 from week one plus my own (originally #381) to get some perspective. Here are the tabulations:I apologize for not writing down the names and for the lack of formatting1. 203.35 + 165.45 = 368.80 (+ K Curtis -23)2. 199.45 + 152.10 = 351.553. 198.45 + 156.50 = 354.954. 197.35 + 130.75 = 328.10 (+ I Bruce -7.3)5. 196.85 + 157.65 = 354.50 6. 196.25 + 144.20 = 340.457. 193.05 + 172.30 = 365.358. 190.25 + 164.40 = 354.659. 189.80 + 173.15 = 362.95Me 125.45 + 160.45 = 285.90all I can say is it doesn't look pretty for me at this point.... :(

Hate to say this, but this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500. I looked at many of the top lineups and they're stacked with the commonly held players. For example the guy below in the #1 spot has Gore, Bush, LT, Housh, Glenn, Jennings, ans Watson owners in a pickle. They most likely need to root against their own players. I've been stating that defense would be a huge determining factor in this contest and the 15 from Oakland has basically differentiate this guy from the others in the top 30.
Code:Jake Delhomme $15 24.45 Peyton Manning $29 20.05 J.P. Losman $ 6 17.80 Reggie Bush $22 49.80 LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20 Marion Barber III $10 19.60 Frank Gore $10 11.80 Derrick Blaylock $ 1 0.00 T.J. Houshmandzadeh $23 26.60 Donte Stallworth $14 21.10 Marty Booker $ 2 17.10 Terry Glenn $13 9.20 Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40 Kevin Curtis $ 5 2.60 Troy Williamson $ 4 0.00 Ben Watson $ 9 7.10 Courtney Anderson $ 1 3.80 Stephen Gostkowski $ 1 8.00 Shayne Graham $ 3 7.00 Oakland Raiders $ 1 15.00 Carolina Panthers $ 8 1.00 ---------------------------------TOTAL 203.35
Bass,I would not be too sure about your prediction. I just jumped from #103 to #34 in one week. With two weeks still remaining anything can happen. Table 2 – Summary of Dispersion of Top-100 (from Week 13)Rank – Week 13 – Week 14 – Week 15 – Week 161-10 10 911-20 10 821-30 10 1031-40 10 741-50 10 951-60 10 861-70 10 571-80 10 781-90 10 491-100 10 5101-125 0 9126-150 0 8151-175 0 5176-200 0 2201-250 0 2251-300 0 1301-400 0 1401-501 0 0
Difference Makers (weeks 13 & 14) – [QB/RB/WR/TE]Pts Value Player [Week 13, Week 14]78.0 51.6 Reggie Bush [49.8, 28.2]51.4 39.4 A. Gates [22.0, 29.4]64.2 37.8 L. Tomlinson [34.2, 30.2]52.4 37.4 TJ Houshmanzadeh [26.6, 25.8]61.4 35.0 S. Jackson [25.5, 35.9]50.0 35.0 T. Holt [24.5, 25.5]46.3 30.3 M. Harrison [30.2, 16.1]44.7 29.3 M. Furrey [27.3, 17.4]43.5 28.5 D. Driver [13.1, 30.4]41.4 26.4 M. Booker [17.1, 24.3]35.6 23.6 T. Gonzalez [29.5, 6.1]35.4 23.4 J. Shockey [18.5, 16.9]36.5 21.5 L. Fitzgerald [15.6, 20.9]46.8 20.4 L. Betts [26.3, 20.5]53.3 19.7 D. Brees [14.7, 38.6]**********************QB Difference Makers (weeks 13 & 14)Pts Value Player [Week 13, Week 14]53.3 19.7 D. Brees [14.7, 38.6]49.5 15.9 M. Bulger [20.7, 28.8]47.5 13.9 V. Young [22.0, 25.5]43.5 9.9 E. Manning [22.2, 21.3]41.9 8.3 T. Green [30.0, 11.9]41.9 8.3 P. Manning [20.1, 21.8]38.8 5.2 B. Roethlisberger [17.1, 21.7]38.4 4.8 B. Favre [16.0, 22.4]37.5 3.9 S. McNair [18.1, 19.4]35.3 1.7 C. Palmer [15.4, 19.9]**********************RB Difference Makers (weeks 13 & 14)Pts Value Player [Week 13, Week 14]78.0 51.6 Reggie Bush [49.8, 28.2]64.2 37.8 L. Tomlinson [34.2, 30.2]61.4 35.0 S. Jackson [25.5, 35.9]46.8 20.4 L. Betts [26.3, 20.5]41.7 15.3 M. Jones-Drew [10.6, 31.1]40.0 13.6 B. Westbrook [24.4, 15.6]39.1 12.7 D. Williams [30.5, 8.6]38.9 12.5 W. Parker [9.6, 29.3]38.7 12.3 T. Henry [13.2, 23.5]37.6 11.2 K. Jones [19.2, 18.4]37.6 11.2 F. Gore [11.8, 25.8]**********************WR Difference Makers (weeks 13 & 14)Pts Value Player [Week 13, Week 14]52.4 37.4 TJ Houshmanzadeh [26.6, 25.8]50.0 35.0 T. Holt [24.5, 25.5]46.3 31.3 M. Harrison [30.2, 16.1]44.7 29.3 M. Furrey [27.3, 17.4]43.5 28.5 D. Driver [13.1, 30.4]41.4 26.4 M. Booker [17.1, 24.3]36.5 21.5 L. Fitzgerald [15.6, 20.9]34.0 19.0 P. Burress [16.3, 17.7]33.8 18.8 D. Mason [22.0, 11.8]33.6 18.6 J. Cotchery [24.9, 8.7]33.2 18.2 D. Stallworth [21.1, 12.1]32.2 17.2 T. Glenn [9.2, 23.0]31.2 16.2 B. Edwards [12.6, 18.6]**********************TE Difference Makers (weeks 13 & 14)Pts Value Player [Week 13, Week 14]51.4 39.4 A. Gates [22.0, 29.4]35.6 23.6 T. Gonzalez [29.5, 6.1]35.4 23.4 J. Shockey [18.5, 16.9]24.1 12.1 T. Scheffler [2.5, 21.6]20.4 8.4 A. Crumpler [14.4, 6.0]20.4 8.4 V. Davis [3.1, 17.3]
I said "most", not "all" as I obviously wasn't including your team. GL the rest of the way!!!Hate to say this, but this contest is effectively over for most of the remaining 500. I looked at many of the top lineups and they're stacked with the commonly held players. For example the guy below in the #1 spot has Gore, Bush, LT, Housh, Glenn, Jennings, ans Watson owners in a pickle. They most likely need to root against their own players. I've been stating that defense would be a huge determining factor in this contest and the 15 from Oakland has basically differentiate this guy from the others in the top 30.
Code:Jake Delhomme $15 24.45 Peyton Manning $29 20.05 J.P. Losman $ 6 17.80 Reggie Bush $22 49.80 LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20 Marion Barber III $10 19.60 Frank Gore $10 11.80 Derrick Blaylock $ 1 0.00 T.J. Houshmandzadeh $23 26.60 Donte Stallworth $14 21.10 Marty Booker $ 2 17.10 Terry Glenn $13 9.20 Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40 Kevin Curtis $ 5 2.60 Troy Williamson $ 4 0.00 Ben Watson $ 9 7.10 Courtney Anderson $ 1 3.80 Stephen Gostkowski $ 1 8.00 Shayne Graham $ 3 7.00 Oakland Raiders $ 1 15.00 Carolina Panthers $ 8 1.00 ---------------------------------TOTAL 203.35Bass,I would not be too sure about your prediction. I just jumped from #103 to #34 in one week. With two weeks still remaining anything can happen.
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