I may be totally off base, but IMO who wins the contest depends most critically on how Reggie Bush performs over the next 2 weeks. Bush is on 132 of the remaining 501 rosters, and he was on 45 of the top-50 and about 85-90 of the top-100 Week 13 rosters. He was the biggest difference maker in Weeks 13 and 14 by far.If Bush scores 50+ pts over the next 2 weeks, I think the contest is effectively over for the bottom 401 rosters (based on Week 13 scores). However, if he scores less than 30 pts over the next 2 weeks (combined), then I think it opens things up very much for the bottom 401. Regardless of what Bush does over the next 2 weeks, several players will undoubtedly have very big weeks. If Bush does poorly, then there will be at least a few rosters among the bottom 401 that will bounce to the top-25 of the final rankings -- and a couple may jump into the top-5, and a lucky one may even win the contest. If Bush does well, then the winner (and most of the top-25) will definitely come from a roster with Bush that was among the top-100 in Week 13. I'm probably crazy, but I now think the whole contest depends on the performance of one player -- Reggie!
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- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Some good analysis there, but I think there's another important piece to the puzzle. Gore needs to #### the bed. With Gore on 80%+ of the rosters, even the Gore owner's need him to have a bad week in order to make up ground.As a side note, I hope Dodds looks into some of my earlier suggestions to make the great contest even better. More diverse rosters at this time would have kept this wide open until the end and this can easily be accomplished as I previously discussed.
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You're right (although I hate to admit it because it means that I'm no longer in contention, sitting around #250).
Bob N. Weaver
Footballguy
I have him too!Go Gore! I hope nobody else has him!
Coming back to the 3 bets to see if the contest was effectively over for most of the remaining rosters after Week 13.
As posted on Tuesday, 28 of the top-100 scorers in Week 13 fell out of the top-100 in Week 14, and 28 from the "bottom 401" jumped up and replaced them. The main contenders to win the contest from the bottom 401 are:Bell - jumped from #155 (Week 13) to #30 (Week 14 - combined pts for Weeks 13 and 14)Hurst - jumped from #116 to #31Jolitz - jumped from #103 to #34Abe - jumped from #125 to #36Portner - jumped from #132 to #39Pollak - jumped from #174 to #42Reckling - jumped from #114 to #45Sheere - jumped from #118 to #48Wallace - jumped from #131 to #54Kirby - jumped from #193 to #58Thoman - jumped from #113 to #62Lynch - jumped from #150 to #66Perez - jumped from #126 to #71Marr - jumped from #151 to #73Gaskill - jumped from #148 to #78Christian - jumped from #201 to #83Plum - jumped from #245 to #84Anderson - jumped from #134 to #85Hon - jumped from #145 to #87Fischer - jumped from #170 to #88Batson - jumped from #357 to #90Only 5 of these 21 rosters contain Bush. If Bush does poorly over the next 2 weeks and players on these 21 rosters do well, then I think they'll have a good chance to jump into the top-25, and maybe even the top-5, and possibly one of them could win the contest if they're very lucky. I guess time will tell.
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Gore putting up the 27.8 last night makes it near impossible for anyone to move up on the LT/Bush/Gore owners, unless both LT and Bush throw stinkers, which is unlikely. Oh well, it's been a great ride, but I doubt I have a lot of room i can make up, unless FWP and Rudi exceed Gore (somehow) by a wide margin. (can you say, not happening? Oh well... 
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David Dodds
Administrator
None of these are final, but here are the tweaks we are probably going to incorporate for next year's contest:- Cuts will go another week, narrowing the field to 200-250 teams before the finals.- Finals will be three weeks instead of four.- All TDs will be 6 points. This will elevate QB scoring.- Roster limits will be 22 players, but with no maximums on number at each position. This should provide a greater diversity of rosters as some teams have three defenses and 2 QBs, etc.- PPR will be changed to 0.5 PPR for RBs, 1 PPR for WRs and 2 PPR for TEs. This should elevate TE scoring so that position is a bigger factor. - FG scoring will be less than 40 yards = 3 pts, 40-49 = 4 and 50+ = 5 points. This will elevate kicker scoring so that position is a bigger factor.- Scoring will likely be 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex (highest RB/WR/TE remaining), 1 PK and 1 def each week. The addition of the flex position should also help seperate more rosters.
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The Jerminator
Footballguy
SWEET!I'm drooling already!!!Having been bounced a few weeks ago I've been absent from this thread for awhile. Looks like I ducked back in for some good news for next year. I like these proposed changes. Can't wait 'till next year...David Dodds said:
If you do this, I hope you'll considering increasing the cut numbers early in the season. It's a bit of a culture shock to go from a 12.5% cut in week 4 to a 50% cut in week 12. Of course, I'm a little biased, since I was among the group that got killed by that 50% cut...but here's an example:David Dodds said:
Code:
Week Current Alternative01 12,000 11,00002 10,000 9,00003 8,000 7,20004 7,000 5,70005 6,000 4,50006 5,000 3,50007 4,000 2,60008 3,000 1,90009 2,000 1,40010 1,500 1,00011 1,000 70012 500 45013 250
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Be good if you could allow for a little more roster flexibilty if all possible. Tons or roster spots for RB and WR but pretty slim at QB and TE with 3 and 2 respectively. I'd guess at this point there are a decent amount of team in the final 500 without a serviceable QB or TE due to injury.
Excellent changes IMO.The contest provides an interesting challenge to experienced FF participants. Looked at from a different perspective, this is a classic resource allocation problem (allocation of a fixed number of $'s across different positions and among players) subject to multiple constraints and objectives.The objectives include: (1) consistency, (2) balance, and (3) productivity/upside. A balanced roster with consistent production is necessary to get through the first 12 weeks (13 weeks next year) without suffering a low-scoring week that causes elimination. A high level of overall productivity is necessary to score the most pts for Weeks 13-16, and rosters containing players with good upside (Bush, etc.) are favored in the 2nd part of the contest.The goal is to maximize consistency, balance and productivity/upside (and hope your players don't get hurt).Bottom line -- a very interesting and challenging contest!David Dodds said:
My biggest contention with the changes, is that you should make sure everyone is required to have the same # of total players. This would make sure it's a level playing field, otherwise, someone will probably win because of a few more hits than misses at the $1-$2 home run chase type picks..... rather than making sure to allocate their $ rosterwide, and only sprinkling in a couple home run potentials.
Just my $.02
Just my $.02
read it more closely...he said 22 player rosters still, so your concern shouldn't be a problem.
It says limits, I read that to mean only on the maximum side. I was worried of a team doing like LT, Manning and LJ so to speak, and then filling in with 10 $1-$2 guys, or something along those lines. (I hope you follow my logic)But if the 22 guy roster is set, I'm all in line with it and looking forward to next year!
David Dodds
Administrator
All rosters would have to have 22 players to be legal. But a team could have 1, 2, 3 or more QBs for example. Distribution of those 22 spots can be any way a player wants to construct his team.
I also agree that we will look more at the cut lines and make them not quite as severe at the very end of the contest. The proposal above looks good, but we likely will leave the first cut at 12,000 teams (even though that likely means only a few get cut).
I also agree that we will look more at the cut lines and make them not quite as severe at the very end of the contest. The proposal above looks good, but we likely will leave the first cut at 12,000 teams (even though that likely means only a few get cut).
ctriopelle
Footballguy
OK, I'll start the train this week. After an OUTSTANDING 3rd place total last week, the team may be suffering a scoring hangover. Right around 122 so far this week, but I have yet to fire a shot at TE with Gates to go.
Also have:
Palmer -8.15
Wayne/Housh-17.7/14.6
Cinci-7
I hate having to wait so late in the day to get my points, I'm used to blowing my wad early! :X
Also have:
Palmer -8.15
Wayne/Housh-17.7/14.6
Cinci-7
I hate having to wait so late in the day to get my points, I'm used to blowing my wad early! :X
The Kerminator
Footballguy
So far this week the scores seem to be pretty low . . . but many popular players are going in tonight's game and Monday night's game (LT, Gates, L. Johnson, Palmer, Housh, R. Johnson, Manning, Wayne, etc.). Scores could jump significantly yet.
sinatravolta
Footballguy
I'm at 158.55, with Rudi - 19.2 and Housh - 14.6.
Vick and NE D helped. But I'm sure LT2 is helping a lot of people right now and not me. With Watson and Troupe, I'm taking a 0 at TE.
Vick and NE D helped. But I'm sure LT2 is helping a lot of people right now and not me. With Watson and Troupe, I'm taking a 0 at TE.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
I'm dead in the water. After ending week 13 in the top ten...I've seen my team take a mortal wound with the injury to Jake Dellhome. QB's were my achilles heel this year as I lost Sims, Culpepper and Dellhome. I took another shot with Watson going out ( for some reason I had Erron Kinney as my backup). I'd stack my RB's against anyone in the league (LT-Parker-Bush-Jones Drew, Jacobs) but unfortunately I cannot trade one of them for a much needed QB. Congrats to the eventual winner and a big thumbs up to FBG for an excellent game.
Is there going to be a playoff game in this format like there was a couple of years ago?
Is there going to be a playoff game in this format like there was a couple of years ago?
Ok, I'll bite. I am currently at 151.35 (pending final stats) with Manning (-4.65) and Rudy Johnson (-27.8) to go on Monday night. Scoring seem to be down quite a bit except for those who own WR Laveranues Coles (32.3) and TE Desmond Clark (31.5).
Edit: Adjustment for final player stats.
Edit: Adjustment for final player stats.
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Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
The_Borg said:
:( Desmond Clark owner here...........................cgcloutier
Footballguy
Looks like I am at 143.8 for the week pending Housh, which brings me to a total of 485
Raleigh Engineers
Footballguy
After two 180+ weeks, I was in the top-15. I only have 155 this week, so will likely drop out of contention (unless the scores are a lot lower this week).
Barry Jive and The Uptown Five
Footballguy
A couple of tweak suggestions in line with these:1. PPR goes 0.5/1.0/1.5 for RB/WR/TE - This work really well in the Gamebreakers league that many staffers are apart of. It really elevates the TEs but doesn't go out of the park...2. FG scoring... Zealots implemented decimal scoring for all FG over 30 yds. That's really cool and will help separate kickers. 37 yds = 3.7 pts, 41 yds 4.1 pts, 51 yds = 5.1 pts
Pending Manning's final stats, this week's score is 174.2. My three week total should be 524.35. It'll be interesting to see the scores for this week. The usual suspects will be the leading scorers (Manning, Tomlinson & Gore).
Edited: Scoring correction for Manning's final stats.
Edited: Scoring correction for Manning's final stats.
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Kirby
Footballguy
Finished with about 170. I'm guessing that will keep me at about the spot I'm already at.
I'm running a little late this morning. Should have the results posted in about an hour, though.
Some factoids I have handy based on the top 50 after week 13 (1st week of cummulative scoring).
36 of the top 50 are in the top 100.
The original top 50 now occupy spots 1-12 except for position 9.
Team 9 is 20 points down at 533 with this roster.
Peyton Manning $29 20.05 20.75 31.10
Chris Simms $10 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jay Fiedler $ 3 0.00 0.00 0.00
LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20 30.20 33.40
Frank Gore $10 11.80 25.80 27.80
Willie Parker $32 9.60 28.30 19.20
Dominic Rhodes $22 17.80 11.90 11.80
Jerious Norwood $ 2 16.70 4.60 0.00
Travis Taylor $ 2 2.90 4.00 20.10
Reggie Brown $13 19.00 10.30 17.70
Terry Glenn $13 9.20 23.00 14.60
Vincent Jackson $ 1 0.80 12.50 9.60
Antonio Bryant $ 9 17.90 4.90 3.60
Cedrick Wilson $ 5 4.60 0.00 1.05
Marty Booker $ 2 17.10 24.30 0.20
Tony Scheffler $ 1 2.50 21.60 8.80
Ben Watson $ 9 7.10 1.50 0.00
Stephen Gostkowski $ 1 8.00 0.00 16.00
Neil Rackers $ 4 10.00 9.00 8.00
Miami Dolphins $ 3 6.00 11.00 7.00
Chicago Bears $ 8 27.00 17.00 6.00
Team 1 is at 553 with this roster
Peyton Manning $29 20.05 20.75 31.10
Chad Pennington $ 7 19.15 13.00 21.05
Vince Young $ 4 21.95 24.50 4.65
LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20 30.20 33.40
Frank Gore $10 11.80 25.80 27.80
Willie Parker $32 9.60 28.30 19.20
Reggie Bush $22 49.80 28.20 8.30
Chris Brown $ 7 0.00 4.40 0.00
Joey Galloway $21 7.40 11.40 19.70
Braylon Edwards $ 2 12.60 18.60 17.80
Ronald Curry $ 1 6.60 23.90 17.70
Terry Glenn $13 9.20 23.00 14.60
Troy Williamson $ 4 0.00 5.30 13.40
Doug Gabriel $ 1 2.20 0.00 5.10
Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40 10.00 1.50
Tony Scheffler $ 1 2.50 21.60 8.80
Ben Watson $ 9 7.10 1.50 0.00
Shayne Graham $ 3 7.00 3.00 10.00
Jason Hanson $ 1 13.00 8.00 9.00
San Diego Chargers $ 2 11.00 6.00 10.00
Chicago Bears $ 8 27.00 17.00 6.00
------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 182.25 195.10 176.30
Team 9 can't gain ground at QB because they share Manning and Simms/Fiedler are out. They also share the Scheffler/Watson combo. Both have LT/Gore/Parker....leaving a hurt Norwood and Rhodes for team 9 v. Bush and Brown. Both teams also have Glenn and Chicago.
36 of the top 50 are in the top 100.
The original top 50 now occupy spots 1-12 except for position 9.
Team 9 is 20 points down at 533 with this roster.
Peyton Manning $29 20.05 20.75 31.10
Chris Simms $10 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jay Fiedler $ 3 0.00 0.00 0.00
LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20 30.20 33.40
Frank Gore $10 11.80 25.80 27.80
Willie Parker $32 9.60 28.30 19.20
Dominic Rhodes $22 17.80 11.90 11.80
Jerious Norwood $ 2 16.70 4.60 0.00
Travis Taylor $ 2 2.90 4.00 20.10
Reggie Brown $13 19.00 10.30 17.70
Terry Glenn $13 9.20 23.00 14.60
Vincent Jackson $ 1 0.80 12.50 9.60
Antonio Bryant $ 9 17.90 4.90 3.60
Cedrick Wilson $ 5 4.60 0.00 1.05
Marty Booker $ 2 17.10 24.30 0.20
Tony Scheffler $ 1 2.50 21.60 8.80
Ben Watson $ 9 7.10 1.50 0.00
Stephen Gostkowski $ 1 8.00 0.00 16.00
Neil Rackers $ 4 10.00 9.00 8.00
Miami Dolphins $ 3 6.00 11.00 7.00
Chicago Bears $ 8 27.00 17.00 6.00
Team 1 is at 553 with this roster
Peyton Manning $29 20.05 20.75 31.10
Chad Pennington $ 7 19.15 13.00 21.05
Vince Young $ 4 21.95 24.50 4.65
LaDainian Tomlinson $71 34.20 30.20 33.40
Frank Gore $10 11.80 25.80 27.80
Willie Parker $32 9.60 28.30 19.20
Reggie Bush $22 49.80 28.20 8.30
Chris Brown $ 7 0.00 4.40 0.00
Joey Galloway $21 7.40 11.40 19.70
Braylon Edwards $ 2 12.60 18.60 17.80
Ronald Curry $ 1 6.60 23.90 17.70
Terry Glenn $13 9.20 23.00 14.60
Troy Williamson $ 4 0.00 5.30 13.40
Doug Gabriel $ 1 2.20 0.00 5.10
Greg Jennings $ 2 3.40 10.00 1.50
Tony Scheffler $ 1 2.50 21.60 8.80
Ben Watson $ 9 7.10 1.50 0.00
Shayne Graham $ 3 7.00 3.00 10.00
Jason Hanson $ 1 13.00 8.00 9.00
San Diego Chargers $ 2 11.00 6.00 10.00
Chicago Bears $ 8 27.00 17.00 6.00
------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 182.25 195.10 176.30
Team 9 can't gain ground at QB because they share Manning and Simms/Fiedler are out. They also share the Scheffler/Watson combo. Both have LT/Gore/Parker....leaving a hurt Norwood and Rhodes for team 9 v. Bush and Brown. Both teams also have Glenn and Chicago.
buckeye35
Footballguy
I got a 175.15 this week (488.05 total), which moved me from #211 last week all the way up to #77. Vick, Barber III and Gostkowski helped and I think the 9.4 from L.J. Smith was nice this week too, with Watson out and Gates' no-show.
I don't have LT; if he sits for some of the game and McGahee goes nuts, maybe I'll get lucky and move up, but after last week's ranking, I can't complain about where my boys are stacking up through 3 weeks.
I don't have LT; if he sits for some of the game and McGahee goes nuts, maybe I'll get lucky and move up, but after last week's ranking, I can't complain about where my boys are stacking up through 3 weeks.
Results for Week 15
Code:
Table 1 - Top-25 after Week 15 (Total pts for Wks 13-15)Rank/roster – Week 13 – Week 14 –----- Week 15 --- Week 161. Callaway 20 3 1 (553.65)2. Gerousis 37 22 2 (544.20)3. Torreano 31 4 3 (541.50)4. Feszczyszyn 32 14 4 (541.30)5. Koneck 7 8 5 (537.95)6. Glenn 8 2 6 (537.60)7. Hermanson 38 13 7 (537.10)8. Karlovic 10 5 8 (534.05)9. Kennedy 71 20 9 (533.30)10. Williams 5 24 10 (529.70)11. Giordano 1 6 11 (527.20)12. Lorraine 14 1 12 (523.90)13. Jolitz 103 34 13 (523.35)14. Styckiewicz 96 33 14 (522.40)15. Ingellis 102 94 15 (519.80)16. Booth 21 50 16 (519.00)17. Gallimore 23 12 17 (518.45)18. Pontius 45 44 18 (513.85)19. Abe 125 36 19 (512.55)20. Kirby 193 58 20 (511.90)21. Jupinka 41 49 21 (511.70)22. Pollak 174 42 22 (510.80)23. Martich 11 9 23 (509.10)24. Sevigny 49 47 24 (509.10)25. Eaton 79 41 25 (508.95)******************************Potential candidates from bottom 401:26. Gaskill 148 78 2629. K.Thompson 156 139 2930. Laughlin 222 107 3035. J.Thompson 293 113 3540. Smith 117 99 4042. Nemeth 336 269 4243. Bell 155 30 4344. Lee 138 115 4446. Reckling 114 45 4648. Peeters 139 133 4849. Marr 151 73 4953. Perez 126 71 5361. Portner 132 39 6162. Sheere 118 48 6274. Hurst 116 31 7481. Wallace 131 54 8197. Plum 245 84 97104. Christian 201 83 104140. Batson 357 90 140
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Happily I can stop cursing what would've been now 
My virtual team (since it's eliminated) would be in 105th place at 477.00
Good luck to those still fighting
As a side note it looks like the Gore/Anti-Gore forces will have something to cheer for at the end. While only 2 of the top 10 do not have Gore on their roster, those two teams sit in 2nd and 4th place.
-QG
My virtual team (since it's eliminated) would be in 105th place at 477.00Good luck to those still fighting
As a side note it looks like the Gore/Anti-Gore forces will have something to cheer for at the end. While only 2 of the top 10 do not have Gore on their roster, those two teams sit in 2nd and 4th place.
-QG
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similar but different situation as ace...
being only 1 of 3 teams in the top 32 that has vick, and noting that most teams above me have gore and or FWP while i have wayne, it's essentially me (vick, LT, MB3, wayne, K/DEF) vs them (peyton, gore, FWP, K/DEF) if i'm going to make up some serious ground and get into the top 10
being only 1 of 3 teams in the top 32 that has vick, and noting that most teams above me have gore and or FWP while i have wayne, it's essentially me (vick, LT, MB3, wayne, K/DEF) vs them (peyton, gore, FWP, K/DEF) if i'm going to make up some serious ground and get into the top 10
ctriopelle
Footballguy
well, its game over for me, after a great week 2, its basically impossible for me to make up my now 50+ point hole. Great week to have palmer, housh, and gates take the week off... 
on an up note, looks like I'll make the top 100 and get my money back!
Thanks FBG for a great contest again. I really enjoy the format!
on an up note, looks like I'll make the top 100 and get my money back!
Thanks FBG for a great contest again. I really enjoy the format!
13. Jolitz 103 34 13 (523.35) 
I can't believe where I'm sitting at. I figured that the scoring would be low this week, but I'm suprised how much I moved up. After looking at the similiarities in the top 12 rosters, I realize that I'm too far from #1 to finish first. However, one more good week out of my team could land me in the top 10 and into the FF draft for the remaining $25,000. Thanks to FBG for a great contest. I'll be looking forward to playing again next year.On a side note, I also made it to my league's SuperBowl.
I can't believe where I'm sitting at. I figured that the scoring would be low this week, but I'm suprised how much I moved up. After looking at the similiarities in the top 12 rosters, I realize that I'm too far from #1 to finish first. However, one more good week out of my team could land me in the top 10 and into the FF draft for the remaining $25,000. Thanks to FBG for a great contest. I'll be looking forward to playing again next year.On a side note, I also made it to my league's SuperBowl.
The Kerminator
Footballguy
Hey Tom
CONGRATS! You put more time into that league than anybody else. Here's hoping your efforts are finally rewarded. Who's your opponent? Rick? And I'm pulling for you in the FBG contest. Drop me an e-mail if you get a chance.
Jim
CONGRATS! You put more time into that league than anybody else. Here's hoping your efforts are finally rewarded. Who's your opponent? Rick? And I'm pulling for you in the FBG contest. Drop me an e-mail if you get a chance.
Jim
Army Eye
Footballguy
Actually it's $10,000 up for grabs in the fantasy league for the top 12 finishers.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Yup. The other 15 K gets spread to almost half of the remaining partipants. If you're lucky enough to stay in the top 100 (all I'm really playing for now...), you get paid to be a FBG subscriber!Actually it's $10,000 up for grabs in the fantasy league for the top 12 finishers.I can't believe where I'm sitting at. I figured that the scoring would be low this week, but I'm suprised how much I moved up. After looking at the similiarities in the top 12 rosters, I realize that I'm too far from #1 to finish first. However, one more good week out of my team could land me in the top 10 and into the FF draft for the remaining $25,000. Thanks to FBG for a great contest. I'll be looking forward to playing again next year.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Nearly done at give or take 640. I'm hoping Glenn can pop for a big number (-5.7), as with Akers (-1) and Miami (-7). No chance at a win, but I'd really like to bust into the top 30. My week 14 dreams are officially over unless these three can get me 40 or more and thats REALLY unlikely...
Merry Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa/Festivus or whatever you celebrate this time of year, someone's gonna get a nice $25k Present!
Merry Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa/Festivus or whatever you celebrate this time of year, someone's gonna get a nice $25k Present!
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Well, it was a nice ride, but my team ran out of gas as well as WRs (Booker & M. Clayton (TB) out with injuries. Gabriel & Williamson disappeared). Braylon Edward's 2.7 points was a killer. I still have Glenn left, but at 125.45 point I'll need a monster of a game from him Monday night. I made it up to #13 so I still should get some money out of this contest. Thanks again FBG for a great contest. You can bet that I'll be back again next year.
On a brighter note, I still have a shot at my league championship. I'm currently 19 points behind my opponent with Jeff Garcia and Brian Westbrook remaining on Monday night. My opponent's players have all finished. Since our league uses the FBG scoring system, I like my chances.
On a brighter note, I still have a shot at my league championship. I'm currently 19 points behind my opponent with Jeff Garcia and Brian Westbrook remaining on Monday night. My opponent's players have all finished. Since our league uses the FBG scoring system, I like my chances.
