Subscriber Contest is LIVE (3 Viewers)

[jdoggydogg]

RB seems to have a lot of players between $10 and $20 that are way too pricey.

 

[Raback]

RB seems to have a lot of players between $10 and $20 that are way too pricey.

I've only had one RB from that price range on my roster. No value in that range IMO.

 

[Spin]

The most successful I've ever been in this contest but finished just out of money range, is the year I went cheap on RB, got studs at QB/Wr and cheap on TE/PK. I don't think TEs got the 1.5 points though, don't remember.

Anyhow, that was the year Foster blew up and everyone that had him went to the top 500 basically. Every other year I've gone with a few stud RBs and it just shows me how unpredictable the top tier of rbs is. So this year I've gone stud TE, stud WR, and 3 headed beast at QB targeting qbs I expect to get a lot of rushing yards/rds and then grabbing a bunch of mid tier rbs.

Which means I'm likely out in week 4 anyhow.

 

[matuski]

Weeks 9 and 11 are pissing me off.

 

[msudaisy26]

Weeks 9 and 11 are pissing me off.

Week 9 for me

 

[msudaisy26]

RB seems to have a lot of players between $10 and $20 that are way too pricey.

I see like 5 guys I wouldn't mind having as my rb 2 or 3 in that range.

 

[HairySasquatch]

I am liking a lot of week 5 guys....to the point I'm worried about making the cut if I take them all.

Anyone have the cutoff history for each week over the last couple of years?

 

[HairySasquatch]

I am liking a lot of week 5 guys....to the point I'm worried about making the cut if I take them all.

Anyone have the cutoff history for each week over the last couple of years?

ok....did a little research from last year's results. Here are weeks 4-12 for cut line totals:

4- 138

5- 140

6- 136

7- 131

8- 172

9- 144

10- 149

11- 160

12- 164

Not sure what happend week 9....

It will be interesting this year....week 7 (bears, packers, broncos, bengals), week 9 (seahawks, cheifs, lions, ravens, cardinals, texans), week 10 (49ers, chargers, colts, falcons) and week 11(steelers, giants, saints, browns)...there are a lot of points going to be on byes during those weeks.

 

[LittlePhatty]

RB seems to have a lot of players between $10 and $20 that are way too pricey.

I'm fairly settled on 3 RBs in that price range making my final roster (out of 6 total).

 

[Deamon]

Ugh I had my roster finally set.... but now every single person is gonna add adams.

And yes I don't like when people reveal sleepers on the wall either, but there's not a person out there who reads this that wasn't already going to add him in.

 

[(HULK)]

Shame only 3 GB wrs available in the first place.

 

[Deamon]

Shame only 3 GB wrs available in the first place.

Ya, couldn't find the other two guys in the list at all

 

[HairySasquatch]

Ugh I had my roster finally set.... but now every single person is gonna add adams.

And yes I don't like when people reveal sleepers on the wall either, but there's not a person out there who reads this that wasn't already going to add him in.

Yes....Adams will be one of the highest % owned now. I just did a re-shuffle of players, but I'm not sure I like it better. It gives me more depth though.

 

[Raback]

Ugh I had my roster finally set.... but now every single person is gonna add adams.

And yes I don't like when people reveal sleepers on the wall either, but there's not a person out there who reads this that wasn't already going to add him in.

Yea I liked my roster before but I had to shuffle some things around now because you can't afford to not have him.

 

[Foxer2373]

In my draft today Got Rodgers in the 4th and Adams went right after. Wheaton didn't even go till the 12th

 

[The Kerminator]

In my draft today Got Rodgers in the 4th and Adams went right after. Wheaton didn't even go till the 12th

Thanks for the update. What's the rest of your rooster look like and how is it relevant to the subscriber contest?

 

[matuski]

In my draft today Got Rodgers in the 4th and Adams went right after. Wheaton didn't even go till the 12th

The most relevant post to a subscriber contest thread ever.

 

[matuski]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

 

[The Kerminator]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

I am going to argue you HAVE to have him on your roster as this point.

Not having him will only give you a big disadvantage against the rest of the field

 

[Hybrid]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

Not sure about this. If his value plays out as expected, it will net you a -x point disadvantage compared to that 9 dollars spent elsewhere I would think.

 

[matuski]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

Not sure about this. If his value plays out as expected, it will net you a -x point disadvantage compared to that 9 dollars spent elsewhere I would think.

If everyone has him, you are playing for a net 0 gain.

If you gamble (which is th name of this game).. in the end you need a + net advantage. Per $ or no.

eta - that is to say he could be a disadvantage to not rostering all year long .. assuming you plan to win he gains you nothing at the end assuming all have him.

 

[bizkliz]

Obviously a huge thanks to Ignoratio Elenchi for previously posting this info...as a segue from Davante Adams discussion. The highest ownership numbers from 2010 & 2012 per position (I couldn't locate the others)...

2010

27.3% - $6 - Derek Anderson

63.4% - $13 - Arian Foster

27.7% - $8 - Mike Williams

26.2% - $21 - Jermichael Finley

2012

34.8% - $19 - Matt Ryan

51.8% - $3 - Cedric Benson

30.2% - $29 - Calvin Johnson

23.4% - $29 - Jimmy Graham

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/percentown.htm

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/percentown.htm

I love this contest.

-biz-

 

[matuski]

Obviously a huge thanks to Ignoratio Elenchi for previously posting this info...as a segue from Davante Adams discussion. The highest ownership numbers from 2010 & 2012 per position (I couldn't locate the others)...

2010

27.3% - $6 - Derek Anderson

63.4% - $13 - Arian Foster

27.7% - $8 - Mike Williams

26.2% - $21 - Jermichael Finley

2012

34.8% - $19 - Matt Ryan

51.8% - $3 - Cedric Benson

30.2% - $29 - Calvin Johnson

23.4% - $29 - Jimmy Graham

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/percentown.htm

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/percentown.htm

I love this contest.

-biz-

remember when handcuffs were a thing?

eta - i have 3 this year

 

[bizkliz]

I still wax poetic over the Priest Holmes-Larry Johnson handcuffs of yesteryear.

-biz-

 

[Foxer2373]

In my draft today Got Rodgers in the 4th and Adams went right after. Wheaton didn't even go till the 12th

The most relevant post to a subscriber contest thread ever.

Simply that Adams Value is through the roof and on par with a TY Hilton/mike Evans right now unless more comes out of pre season unless you don't read the rules or set your roster last week and forgot about it Adams will have a 90%+ ownership and its either take him and ride with everyone else or don't hope he gets hurt and use the 9 bucks to find an upgrade and a low rate gem. It is completely relevant that he is going that high in real money drafts and is 9$ on the craziness that is Subscriber contest.

 

[halebop78]

and with the injury to nelson we make change number 200 ughh so addicting

 

[HairySasquatch]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

I am going to argue you HAVE to have him on your roster as this point.

Not having him will only give you a big disadvantage against the rest of the field

Look....this is simple. If he has a good season and has a big final three weeks, you better hope Adams is on your team. If he gets hurt or under performs in the finals, it will hurt you, but not necessarily put the nail in your coffin.

Here is my example: You can draft Julio Jones for $26 or you can draft (pick one: Agholor $17, A. Robinson $17, C. Johnson $16, M. Bryant $16, or Landry $15) and Adams $9. If Adams under performs or gets injured, you still have the other player to earn points.

If you don't take Adams, and he goes off....you will have a lot of ground to make up on a lot of people.

If you do take Adams and he flops...you might have ground to make up depending on how you used the saved money. You might be fine...it all depends on how you spend the extra money.

I think you are crazy if you pass up on the low hanging fruit. There will be huge variance with the rest of your roster to be the difference maker.

 

[Dragon1952]

No Hillman?

I had to do a double take for him the other day. I was hoping to take a 5 dollar or so flier on him.

That had to be an oversight, right? I mean, why would you put Juwan Thompson, or any of those other guys on there $6 and under for that matter, but not Hillman?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

The Adams plus $15 justification is flawed. Adams plus $15 is only superior to $24 if you ASSUME Adams matches Nelsons projected performance which i can assure you he wont. The correct argument for Adams is higher best ball survivor probability which again is based on assumed performance. What you should be comparing is Adams plus $6 versus $15.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Adams ownership will likely correllate with roster size as there is elevated risk assuming he will deliver wr1 value and perceived value delivering wr2 value.

 

[The Kerminator]

In my draft today Got Rodgers in the 4th and Adams went right after. Wheaton didn't even go till the 12th

The most relevant post to a subscriber contest thread ever.

Simply that Adams Value is through the roof and on par with a TY Hilton/mike Evans right now unless more comes out of pre season unless you don't read the rules or set your roster last week and forgot about it Adams will have a 90%+ ownership and its either take him and ride with everyone else or don't hope he gets hurt and use the 9 bucks to find an upgrade and a low rate gem. It is completely relevant that he is going that high in real money drafts and is 9$ on the craziness that is Subscriber contest.

You do know this isn't a draft, right?

 

[LittlePhatty]

Look....this is simple. If he has a good season and has a big final three weeks, you better hope Adams is on your team. If he gets hurt or under performs in the finals, it will hurt you, but not necessarily put the nail in your coffin.

I tend to agree here.

Just going on memory from Arian Foster's breakout year when he was cheap, after the final cut was made going into the last 3 weeks of this contest, I think his ownership was around 65% or 70%. Those who didn't own him simply had to hope and pray that he didn't do well or else they would be sunk by the Foster Wave. I'd rather be part of that wave and hope my other players separate me.

The metagame here is the really fun part - trying to figure out what players will be highly owned, and deciding how similar you want your own roster to be compared to the pack, or do you want to be unique and count on those popular players not doing well?

 

[FUBAR]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

Not sure about this. If his value plays out as expected, it will net you a -x point disadvantage compared to that 9 dollars spent elsewhere I would think.

If everyone has him, you are playing for a net 0 gain.

If you gamble (which is th name of this game).. in the end you need a + net advantage. Per $ or no.

eta - that is to say he could be a disadvantage to not rostering all year long .. assuming you plan to win he gains you nothing at the end assuming all have him.

Maybe I'm underthinking this, but the only thing I care about right now is whether I think a player will score more (and count more often) relative to his price vs. others. I need to get to the final weeks and then hopefully the few players I have different than others will win it for me. But then, I've never come close to winning this contest so maybe I'm thinking of it wrong.

 

[matuski]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

Not sure about this. If his value plays out as expected, it will net you a -x point disadvantage compared to that 9 dollars spent elsewhere I would think.

If everyone has him, you are playing for a net 0 gain.

If you gamble (which is th name of this game).. in the end you need a + net advantage. Per $ or no.

eta - that is to say he could be a disadvantage to not rostering all year long .. assuming you plan to win he gains you nothing at the end assuming all have him.

Maybe I'm underthinking this, but the only thing I care about right now is whether I think a player will score more (and count more often) relative to his price vs. others. I need to get to the final weeks and then hopefully the few players I have different than others will win it for me. But then, I've never come close to winning this contest so maybe I'm thinking of it wrong.

For most of the season this matters. To win it it I'd argue it does not.

To win it you need the most points (net), not the best value to the dollar. And assuming everyone has him, your net advantage in having him is 0.. your $9 gained you nada.

Now that $9 elsewhere is a gamble, will it earn you more or less somewhere else is the question. The goal would be to find another roster spot to upgrade with the $9, or find another player at or below $9 to top Adams.

eta - perhaps I am over thinking it. I have pretty consistently done well in the contest but never in the money because I have a deep roster but not top talent, I am trying to figure out a different formula.

 

[gerome]

Here are some selections that are on teams with crappy (or unproven) QB's.

QB - Blake Bortles - JAX/8 - $7
QB - Marcus Mariota - TEN/4 - $7
QB - Brian Hoyer - HOU/9 - $5
QB - Kirk Cousins - WAS/8 - $3
QB - Ryan Fitzpatrick - NYJ/5 - $3
RB - LeSean McCoy - BUF/8 - $25
RB - Latavius Murray - OAK/6 - $21
RB - Carlos Hyde - SF/10 - $19
RB - Chris Ivory - NYJ/5 - $15
RB - Cameron Artis-Payne - CAR/5 - $4
WR - Mike Evans - TB/6 - $23
WR - Sammy Watkins - BUF/8 - $19
WR - Amari Cooper - OAK/6 - $19
WR - Allen Robinson - JAX/8 - $17
WR - Brian Hartline - CLE/11 - $5
TE - Vernon Davis - SF/10 - $7
TE - Rob Housler - CLE/11 - $5
TE - Jeff Cumberland - NYJ/5 - $3
PK - Randy Bullock - HOU/9 - $3
PK - Josh Scobee - JAX/8 - $2
PK - Ryan Succop - TEN/4 - $2
PK - Sebastian Janikowski - OAK/6 - $2
PK - Kai Forbath - WAS/8 - $2
TD - Buffalo Bills - BUF/8 - $11
TD - Houston Texans - HOU/9 - $9
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/5 - $8
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/8 - $4

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

At an 18 man roster right now and I don't see myself going much higher.

 

[LittlePhatty]

To win it you need the most points (net), not the best value to the dollar. And assuming everyone has him, your net advantage in having him is 0.. your $9 gained you nada.

True that dollar values are meaningless once the season begins.But if Adams lights it up in the final 3 weeks then your $9 bought you the right to hang in there with the rest of the herd and not get left behind. That's not nothing, to use a double negative. Don't think of it as a direct advantage, think of it as avoiding a potentially severe disadvantage.

If you don't take Adams you are essentially betting he has a bad season, and even more so a poor showing in the last few weeks, which is of course entirely possible.

 

[FUBAR]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

Not sure about this. If his value plays out as expected, it will net you a -x point disadvantage compared to that 9 dollars spent elsewhere I would think.

If everyone has him, you are playing for a net 0 gain.

If you gamble (which is th name of this game).. in the end you need a + net advantage. Per $ or no.

eta - that is to say he could be a disadvantage to not rostering all year long .. assuming you plan to win he gains you nothing at the end assuming all have him.

Maybe I'm underthinking this, but the only thing I care about right now is whether I think a player will score more (and count more often) relative to his price vs. others. I need to get to the final weeks and then hopefully the few players I have different than others will win it for me. But then, I've never come close to winning this contest so maybe I'm thinking of it wrong.

For most of the season this matters. To win it it I'd argue it does not.

To win it you need the most points (net), not the best value to the dollar. And assuming everyone has him, your net advantage in having him is 0.. your $9 gained you nada.

Now that $9 elsewhere is a gamble, will it earn you more or less somewhere else is the question. The goal would be to find another roster spot to upgrade with the $9, or find another player at or below $9 to top Adams.

eta - perhaps I am over thinking it. I have pretty consistently done well in the contest but never in the money because I have a deep roster but not top talent, I am trying to figure out a different formula.

ok. I'd like you to convince more people to not get him, so - You're absolutely right! We all should stay away.

 

[FF Ninja]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

Not sure about this. If his value plays out as expected, it will net you a -x point disadvantage compared to that 9 dollars spent elsewhere I would think.

If everyone has him, you are playing for a net 0 gain.

If you gamble (which is th name of this game).. in the end you need a + net advantage. Per $ or no.

eta - that is to say he could be a disadvantage to not rostering all year long .. assuming you plan to win he gains you nothing at the end assuming all have him.

Obviously a huge thanks to Ignoratio Elenchi for previously posting this info...as a segue from Davante Adams discussion. The highest ownership numbers from 2010 & 2012 per position (I couldn't locate the others)...

2010

27.3% - $6 - Derek Anderson

63.4% - $13 - Arian Foster

27.7% - $8 - Mike Williams

26.2% - $21 - Jermichael Finley

2012

34.8% - $19 - Matt Ryan

51.8% - $3 - Cedric Benson

30.2% - $29 - Calvin Johnson

23.4% - $29 - Jimmy Graham

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/percentown.htm

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/percentown.htm

I love this contest.

-biz-

remember when handcuffs were a thing?

eta - i have 3 this year

These two quotes directly contradict each other. If you are into risk you gamble that Adams is a bust and that your RBs stay healthy. If you play it safe, you grab the undervalued guy and handcuff your RBs. Avoiding Adams and handcuffing makes zero sense. You don't have a consistent strategy.

 

[HairySasquatch]

Here are some selections that are on teams with crappy (or unproven) QB's.

QB - Blake Bortles - JAX/8 - $7

QB - Marcus Mariota - TEN/4 - $7

QB - Brian Hoyer - HOU/9 - $5

QB - Kirk Cousins - WAS/8 - $3

QB - Ryan Fitzpatrick - NYJ/5 - $3

RB - LeSean McCoy - BUF/8 - $25

RB - Latavius Murray - OAK/6 - $21

RB - Carlos Hyde - SF/10 - $19

RB - Chris Ivory - NYJ/5 - $15

RB - Cameron Artis-Payne - CAR/5 - $4

WR - Mike Evans - TB/6 - $23

WR - Sammy Watkins - BUF/8 - $19

WR - Amari Cooper - OAK/6 - $19

WR - Allen Robinson - JAX/8 - $17

WR - Brian Hartline - CLE/11 - $5

TE - Vernon Davis - SF/10 - $7

TE - Rob Housler - CLE/11 - $5

TE - Jeff Cumberland - NYJ/5 - $3

PK - Randy Bullock - HOU/9 - $3

PK - Josh Scobee - JAX/8 - $2

PK - Ryan Succop - TEN/4 - $2

PK - Sebastian Janikowski - OAK/6 - $2

PK - Kai Forbath - WAS/8 - $2

TD - Buffalo Bills - BUF/8 - $11

TD - Houston Texans - HOU/9 - $9

TD - New York Jets - NYJ/5 - $8

TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/8 - $4

This is an example of a large roster team that could win it all or flame out after a deep run. You have a lot of bullets in the chamber, but I don't see a 200+ point team per week for 3 consecutive weeks (that's what it will take in the finals to have a shot at the money). I like a lot of the players and I think a lot of them will be fairly unique. The QB and TE position is what I would be worried about. It wouldn't take much to keep the large rosters and upgrade one guy at each of those positions.

 

[matuski]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

Not sure about this. If his value plays out as expected, it will net you a -x point disadvantage compared to that 9 dollars spent elsewhere I would think.

If everyone has him, you are playing for a net 0 gain.

If you gamble (which is th name of this game).. in the end you need a + net advantage. Per $ or no.

eta - that is to say he could be a disadvantage to not rostering all year long .. assuming you plan to win he gains you nothing at the end assuming all have him.

Obviously a huge thanks to Ignoratio Elenchi for previously posting this info...as a segue from Davante Adams discussion. The highest ownership numbers from 2010 & 2012 per position (I couldn't locate the others)...

2010

27.3% - $6 - Derek Anderson

63.4% - $13 - Arian Foster

27.7% - $8 - Mike Williams

26.2% - $21 - Jermichael Finley

2012

34.8% - $19 - Matt Ryan

51.8% - $3 - Cedric Benson

30.2% - $29 - Calvin Johnson

23.4% - $29 - Jimmy Graham

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/percentown.htm

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/percentown.htm

I love this contest.

-biz-

remember when handcuffs were a thing?

eta - i have 3 this year

These two quotes directly contradict each other. If you are into risk you gamble that Adams is a bust and that your RBs stay healthy. If you play it safe, you grab the undervalued guy and handcuff your RBs. Avoiding Adams and handcuffing makes zero sense. You don't have a consistent strategy.

Hard to contradict a strategy I haven't shared with you. I am speaking to Adams in particular. The strategy for him is unique... it is whether you want to play it safe and gain/lose nothing over the field or try to beat the field. Aren't many other guys that will be on nearly every roster.

The strategy in this game is different at the end of the season. You get through the season by surviving.. in which case Adams makes sense. You win/advance later/at the end not with a deep roster but by having those 10 spots scoring the highest. It will no longer matter that Adams is scoring in general, all that will matter is whether his score gives you an advantage over the best rosters.

Also.. I no longer have any handcuffs. Tomorrow I might again. I claimed consistent results (good but not good enough), my strategy/roster changes daily.

 

[fightingillini]

To win it you need the most points (net), not the best value to the dollar. And assuming everyone has him, your net advantage in having him is 0.. your $9 gained you nada.

True that dollar values are meaningless once the season begins.But if Adams lights it up in the final 3 weeks then your $9 bought you the right to hang in there with the rest of the herd and not get left behind. That's not nothing, to use a double negative. Don't think of it as a direct advantage, think of it as avoiding a potentially severe disadvantage.

If you don't take Adams you are essentially betting he has a bad season, and even more so a poor showing in the last few weeks, which is of course entirely possible.

This.

The way I see it is....with Adams, you're getting a WR2 value at $9. You would be dumb not to take it. To get a good WR2, you would need to spend $17-20. So now I have $8-11 to gamble with elsewhere. That is how my team is going to separate itself from the pack.

 

[HairySasquatch]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

Not sure about this. If his value plays out as expected, it will net you a -x point disadvantage compared to that 9 dollars spent elsewhere I would think.

If everyone has him, you are playing for a net 0 gain.

If you gamble (which is th name of this game).. in the end you need a + net advantage. Per $ or no.

eta - that is to say he could be a disadvantage to not rostering all year long .. assuming you plan to win he gains you nothing at the end assuming all have him.

Obviously a huge thanks to Ignoratio Elenchi for previously posting this info...as a segue from Davante Adams discussion. The highest ownership numbers from 2010 & 2012 per position (I couldn't locate the others)...

2010

27.3% - $6 - Derek Anderson

63.4% - $13 - Arian Foster

27.7% - $8 - Mike Williams

26.2% - $21 - Jermichael Finley

2012

34.8% - $19 - Matt Ryan

51.8% - $3 - Cedric Benson

30.2% - $29 - Calvin Johnson

23.4% - $29 - Jimmy Graham

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/percentown.htm

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/percentown.htm

I love this contest.

-biz-

remember when handcuffs were a thing?

eta - i have 3 this year

These two quotes directly contradict each other. If you are into risk you gamble that Adams is a bust and that your RBs stay healthy. If you play it safe, you grab the undervalued guy and handcuff your RBs. Avoiding Adams and handcuffing makes zero sense. You don't have a consistent strategy.

Hard to contradict a strategy I haven't shared with you. I am speaking to Adams in particular. The strategy for him is unique... it is a whether you want to play it safe and gain/lose nothing over the field or try to beat the field. Aren't many other guys that will be on nearly every roster.

But to expand - If I think Melvin Gordon won't finish the season, Brandon Oliver becomes a potential RB1/2 that few others will have.

Also.. I no longer have any handcuffs.

I think it is ok to have handcuffs....just not to the players on your roster.

 

[Warrior]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

I am going to argue you HAVE to have him on your roster as this point.

Not having him will only give you a big disadvantage against the rest of the field

####

 

[matuski]

To win it you need the most points (net), not the best value to the dollar. And assuming everyone has him, your net advantage in having him is 0.. your $9 gained you nada.

True that dollar values are meaningless once the season begins.But if Adams lights it up in the final 3 weeks then your $9 bought you the right to hang in there with the rest of the herd and not get left behind. That's not nothing, to use a double negative. Don't think of it as a direct advantage, think of it as avoiding a potentially severe disadvantage.

If you don't take Adams you are essentially betting he has a bad season, and even more so a poor showing in the last few weeks, which is of course entirely possible.

This.

The way I see it is....with Adams, you're getting a WR2 value at $9. You would be dumb not to take it. To get a good WR2, you would need to spend $17-20. So now I have $8-11 to gamble with elsewhere. That is how my team is going to separate itself from the pack.

This is where it gets fun. I would ask how far you are separated when they all have Adams as well?

This will help get through the first 2/3rds of the season where you only need to beat the bottom halfish of the pool... in the end, versus the top rosters, if Adams is everyone's WR2 you didn't really gain anything. It is obviously a gamble.

Again I may be over thinking it. It may also be that I am not so sure Adams is going to be that for sure WR2.

 

[matuski]

I am going to argue you CANNOT have Adams on your roster at this point.

Having him will only give you 0 advantage over the majority.

Not sure about this. If his value plays out as expected, it will net you a -x point disadvantage compared to that 9 dollars spent elsewhere I would think.

If everyone has him, you are playing for a net 0 gain.

If you gamble (which is th name of this game).. in the end you need a + net advantage. Per $ or no.

eta - that is to say he could be a disadvantage to not rostering all year long .. assuming you plan to win he gains you nothing at the end assuming all have him.

Obviously a huge thanks to Ignoratio Elenchi for previously posting this info...as a segue from Davante Adams discussion. The highest ownership numbers from 2010 & 2012 per position (I couldn't locate the others)...

2010

27.3% - $6 - Derek Anderson

63.4% - $13 - Arian Foster

27.7% - $8 - Mike Williams

26.2% - $21 - Jermichael Finley

2012

34.8% - $19 - Matt Ryan

51.8% - $3 - Cedric Benson

30.2% - $29 - Calvin Johnson

23.4% - $29 - Jimmy Graham

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/percentown.htm

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/percentown.htm

I love this contest.

-biz-

remember when handcuffs were a thing?

eta - i have 3 this year

These two quotes directly contradict each other. If you are into risk you gamble that Adams is a bust and that your RBs stay healthy. If you play it safe, you grab the undervalued guy and handcuff your RBs. Avoiding Adams and handcuffing makes zero sense. You don't have a consistent strategy.

Hard to contradict a strategy I haven't shared with you. I am speaking to Adams in particular. The strategy for him is unique... it is a whether you want to play it safe and gain/lose nothing over the field or try to beat the field. Aren't many other guys that will be on nearly every roster.

But to expand - If I think Melvin Gordon won't finish the season, Brandon Oliver becomes a potential RB1/2 that few others will have.

Also.. I no longer have any handcuffs.

I think it is ok to have handcuffs....just not to the players on your roster.

Yep.. if I thought I needed to handcuff Gordon I wouldn't have him.

 

[HairySasquatch]

This thread is heating up....I like it.

 

[Don Quixote]

To win it you need the most points (net), not the best value to the dollar. And assuming everyone has him, your net advantage in having him is 0.. your $9 gained you nada.

True that dollar values are meaningless once the season begins.But if Adams lights it up in the final 3 weeks then your $9 bought you the right to hang in there with the rest of the herd and not get left behind. That's not nothing, to use a double negative. Don't think of it as a direct advantage, think of it as avoiding a potentially severe disadvantage.

If you don't take Adams you are essentially betting he has a bad season, and even more so a poor showing in the last few weeks, which is of course entirely possible.

Yeah, I think it is similar to Benjamin last year. He was on a lot of teams and his owners hung in there better than those that did not.

 

[matuski]

To win it you need the most points (net), not the best value to the dollar. And assuming everyone has him, your net advantage in having him is 0.. your $9 gained you nada.

True that dollar values are meaningless once the season begins.But if Adams lights it up in the final 3 weeks then your $9 bought you the right to hang in there with the rest of the herd and not get left behind. That's not nothing, to use a double negative. Don't think of it as a direct advantage, think of it as avoiding a potentially severe disadvantage.

If you don't take Adams you are essentially betting he has a bad season, and even more so a poor showing in the last few weeks, which is of course entirely possible.

Yeah, I think it is similar to Benjamin last year. He was on a lot of teams and his owners hung in there better than those that did not.

Right. I would ask if this helped those that had him win in the end versus hanging in for the earlier parts of the season..or were other WR1s better to have to differentiate from all those who had him? More than likely helped as he had WR1 numbers for the season (I don't remember how he finished).

 

[HairySasquatch]

To win it you need the most points (net), not the best value to the dollar. And assuming everyone has him, your net advantage in having him is 0.. your $9 gained you nada.

True that dollar values are meaningless once the season begins.But if Adams lights it up in the final 3 weeks then your $9 bought you the right to hang in there with the rest of the herd and not get left behind. That's not nothing, to use a double negative. Don't think of it as a direct advantage, think of it as avoiding a potentially severe disadvantage.

If you don't take Adams you are essentially betting he has a bad season, and even more so a poor showing in the last few weeks, which is of course entirely possible.

Yeah, I think it is similar to Benjamin last year. He was on a lot of teams and his owners hung in there better than those that did not.

Right. I would ask if this helped those that had him win in the end versus hanging in for the earlier parts of the season..or were other WR1s better to have to differentiate from all those who had him? More than likely helped as he had WR1 numbers for the season (I don't remember how he finished).

Benjamin finished with 10.4, 18.4, and 9.7. He ended up not being a difference maker in the finals....but he defiantly helped get people to the dance.