Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter eaglezzz
- Start date
TheChairman
Footballguy
You're not hoping his touches don't get reduce?
Helps my cause of making the cut if A Bradshaw doesn't see the field..
Preliminary Week 12 sim. As is usual at this time of year, no one is safe. More than half the field is in the 40-60% range.
Updated power rankings
Updated power rankings
Donsmith753
Footballguy
50.6% percent chance. So it's a coinflip.
I think you should remove Foster from calculation of uniqueness.
This could be the week I exit.
Marshall probably out
Bradshaw back to #2
Spiller probably out
Only 1 TE this week and it is Gronkowski
I need Gronkowski to get me at least 10 points, and I need my Kickers and Defense by committees to each get me around 15 then I think my depth and core guys can do the rest. Pretty sad when you start relying on your Kickers and Defenses in FF, but I think with the cuts the next 2 weeks those positions will come more into play.
Here is my top lineup for week 12
Rivers
A. Foster
Bradshaw
Calvin
M. Williams
Branch
Flex - Garcon/Bess/Murphy/Tolbert/T.Jones
Gronkowski
Bironas (Succup/Janikowski)
49ers (Saints/Lions)
Good Luck to all this week!
Marshall probably out
Bradshaw back to #2
Spiller probably out
Only 1 TE this week and it is Gronkowski
I need Gronkowski to get me at least 10 points, and I need my Kickers and Defense by committees to each get me around 15 then I think my depth and core guys can do the rest. Pretty sad when you start relying on your Kickers and Defenses in FF, but I think with the cuts the next 2 weeks those positions will come more into play.
Here is my top lineup for week 12
Rivers
A. Foster
Bradshaw
Calvin
M. Williams
Branch
Flex - Garcon/Bess/Murphy/Tolbert/T.Jones
Gronkowski
Bironas (Succup/Janikowski)
49ers (Saints/Lions)
Good Luck to all this week!
Ouch. Ranked 991 in the sim this week. If it is my week to go, this will still be the best I've ever done in a FBG contest, though I've been entering them since the original playoffs-only one. (My good buddy scored a top 10 finish that year and still uses his lifetime FBG subscription, although I don't think he's ever entered the contest again.)I've learned a lot this year while reading all the posts from you folks. So thanks and good luck!
Last edited by a moderator:
apalmer
Footballguy
A few pages back, somebody decided that it's either you make the cut or you don't so it's always a 50% probablility. Since the sim puts me at 49.9% this week it looks like I have to agree.
On the bright side, becasue I'm under 50% I can use the "they don't respect us" card to motivate my team.
On the bright side, becasue I'm under 50% I can use the "they don't respect us" card to motivate my team.
a_rackowski
Footballguy
109578 looks like strong team. 
Utter Chaos
Footballguy
The 3 Jacobs owners left must be happy.
Northbound Train
Footballguy
Only team left with:
Brady
Forte
Bradshaw
L.T
McFadden
Also have Foster (but who doesn't) and Tolbert to round out a pretty good run game.
Calvin + Marshall are my big dogs at WR (need Brandon back and producing soooooon)
Dez, Jacoby Jones, JL HIggins + Super Steve Johnson to round out a solid WR corps
Witten, Scheff + Hernandez
Bironas, Janikowski + Bryant
Lions, Chiefs + Niners
Pretty decent depth throughout other than QB where I lost Stafford..hope he comes back in week 14
In hindsight I realize the importance of 3 QB's...oh how nice it would've been to have Vick instead of Dwayne Jarrett
Have used all my guys at least once except JL Higgins and Jarrett.
Need Brady to stay healthy for a shot
192 in Power Rankings + 79.3% chance of moving on
Brady
Forte
Bradshaw
L.T
McFadden
Also have Foster (but who doesn't) and Tolbert to round out a pretty good run game.
Calvin + Marshall are my big dogs at WR (need Brandon back and producing soooooon)
Dez, Jacoby Jones, JL HIggins + Super Steve Johnson to round out a solid WR corps
Witten, Scheff + Hernandez
Bironas, Janikowski + Bryant
Lions, Chiefs + Niners
Pretty decent depth throughout other than QB where I lost Stafford..hope he comes back in week 14
In hindsight I realize the importance of 3 QB's...oh how nice it would've been to have Vick instead of Dwayne Jarrett
Have used all my guys at least once except JL Higgins and Jarrett.
Need Brady to stay healthy for a shot
192 in Power Rankings + 79.3% chance of moving on
Last edited by a moderator:
TheChairman
Footballguy
So you're the one throwing off Jarrett's survival numbers.
radballs
Footballguy
Agree to a certain extent, but would qualify it by broadening the odds to more like 1:800 and 1:80 while truncating the top and bottom 2% out of that range. There will be a handful of really strong teams and really weak teams that may even fall out of those odds' ranges.Drunken Cowboy said:
For FBG's staff, 6 of 23 teams have survived through week 11 (26.09%). Overall, 1,006 out of 13,061 teams remain (7.70%). For 18-player rosters, 3.49% remain. For 30-player rosters, 26.94% remain. Thus, teams with 30-player rosters have a slightly better survival rate than the teams of FBG's staff members. And both of these sub-groups have substantially higher survival rates than average (7.70%), while 18-player teams have significantly lower survival rates (3.49%) than average.Why are the survival rates for FBG's staff members and teams with 30-player rosters substantially higher than average? One reason is that these teams were obviously "much better constructed" than the average team with: (1) better allocation of salary $'s to selected positions, (2) better selection of both higher-priced and lower-priced players, (3) more attention to coverage of bye weeks, (4) much larger roster sizes than the average team, (5) better use of value-priced players with upside, etc. IMO, these factors are why the teams with 30-player rosters (and the teams of FBG staff) are "bucking all statistical trends."
My statement was that, while it's certainly possible, the odds are heavily against a team with an 18-player roster winning the contest. Even though 41.5% of the original 13,061 teams had 18-player rosters, teams with 18-player rosters will constitute less than one-sixth of the final 250 teams. Even if they had as good a chance as the average final-250 team (which I doubt), the odds are heavily against a team with an 18-player roster winning the contest. Similarly, even with their inherent advantages, the odds of winning the contest are even less for teams with a 30-player roster (because less than 35 of these teams will remain in the final 250). Looked at another way, the odds are high (significantly greater than 50%, but less than 75%) that the contest will be won by a team with a roster size from 19 to 29.Ignoratio Elenchi said:
What 5 things do you need to happen for your team to have a shot at winning it all?
1) Need Gronkowski to become the #1 TE in NE (Scheffler to get back)
2) Need Tolbert to continue as the starting RB in SD
3) Need Bess to get back to his big games or get Marshall back ASAP
4) Need Rivers/Roethlisberger to continue to be a dynamite duo (avg 32.18 points a week at QB position)
5) Lots of luck and no more injuries.
1) Need Gronkowski to become the #1 TE in NE (Scheffler to get back)
2) Need Tolbert to continue as the starting RB in SD
3) Need Bess to get back to his big games or get Marshall back ASAP
4) Need Rivers/Roethlisberger to continue to be a dynamite duo (avg 32.18 points a week at QB position)
5) Lots of luck and no more injuries.
TheChairman
Footballguy
1-5) Steve Johnon to get turf toe
Last edited by a moderator:
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
You're not really saying anything here. The odds of any particular roster size winning the contest are small. Here are some final-250 projections I did a few weeks ago, just for reference:
I don't expect that it will work out exactly like this, of course, but let's just assume it's relatively close. You can arbitrarily say that there is a greater than 50% chance that the winner will have 19-29 players. You could also arbitrarily say that there is a greater than 50% chance that the winner will have 19-24 players, or 22-29 players, or an even number of players, and based on the above projection (assuming all else is equal) those are all true statements. Those statements don't really say anything meaningful, though.
Futeki
Footballguy
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
#1 - I need Jahvid Best to start lighting it up.#2 - Ah, crap, who am I kidding. #1 isn't going to happen and I have no shot.
TheChairman
Footballguy
Let's see your predictions, Kreskin!
Northbound Train
Footballguy
SOB did I miss the boat on Tampa Mike... 610 teams of 1000 with him 
One of 5 teams with Steve Johnson + Dez...too great values.
One of 5 teams with Steve Johnson + Dez...too great values.
Northbound Train
Footballguy
1) Need Brady to stay healthy and continue producing (only QB w/ Stafford on the shelf)2) Need Marshall to get healthy and produce like a true #1That's all I got
Futeki
Footballguy
The FBG predictions appear solid; I don't need to have a set of my own to be able to identify flaws in others.Perhaps he can take a closer look at his predictions and revise them, especially what he missed about the teams that FBG considered in the top half of the competition.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
1.) I need LT to get a high ankle sprain.2.) I need Vick to decide he likes throwing to Celek.3.) I need Floyd to retain the X wr position for the Chargers.4.) I need Chris Johnson to be arrested with no bail.5.) I need Bradshaw to stop fumbling so he does not lose his job permanently.
Das Boot
Footballguy
Good luck this week...If you do go out, at least you'll have all the advice and stats in this thread to help you out next year.
Das Boot
Footballguy
Besides injuries, this is a good example of the type of thing that can tip the balance of power.Jacobs will help the few surviving teams that own him, but more significantly it hurts the good sized group of Bradshaw owners.Another example that may or may not comes to pass: I really wanted to take Orton this year, but didn't because I was afraid Tebow would start eating into his playing time as the Broncos fell out of the playoff hunt and everyone (coaches, fans) wanted to see Tebow in there.
)
It will probably not go unnoticed that the r-o-s sim loves the small rosters. Legit, or flawed simulator?Definitely the latter to some extent. The primary issue with projecting forward past this week is that it's tough to take into account future injuries and situation changes. I have to believe that this particular failure to model reality will make stud-laden teams look better and deep teams look worse.
So take it for what it's worth: a fun way to get a very rough estimate of your team's chances, and to identify some of the strongest squads.
wollac
Footballguy
I have to concur that this new sim seems prejudiced against large rosters. According to this sim, my 30 man team has a 35.77% chance of making it past this week. According to the Week 12 sim, I'm at 59.1% But I appreciate Doug's efforts to keep us excited throughout this contest. Thanks!
Last edited by a moderator:
OK, now that's just a flat-out bug. The algorithm should be the same for Week 12. I'll investigate.
Yeah, I have the same issue. 59% of moving on in the Week 12 sim, but only 48% chance in the r-o-s sim.
fightingillini
Footballguy
I need1) Rivers/Orton to continue to be $$$$$$$$2) Need Bradshaw not to tail off3) Need Fitz to be the old Fitz.......I may be the only entry in the top 100 in power ranking to have Fitz.4) Need Aromashodu to start playing again5) Need incredible luck
Northbound Train
Footballguy
Not a good first half for me
Let's go Brady...light it up but fall just short as the Lions win
Let's go Brady...light it up but fall just short as the Lions win
Saint
Footballguy
Apparently, you were heard:3-2-NE 21(5:27) T.Brady pass deep left to D.Branch for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Not a good first half for meLet's go Brady...light it up but fall just short as the Lions win
wollac
Footballguy
...Make that 58.7 points...Thank you Brady for delivering the mail to Branch this week!
Bug fixed. I forgot to update the rest-of-season simulator for the expanded rosters. So it was cutting off everyone at 24 players, and therefore making the big rosters play without a kicker and/or defense.
I also re-ran a new week 12 simulator to account for projection changes. (Does not account for the already-played Thursday action).
The weekly sim should now match the weekly projection in the corrected rest-of-season sim.
The r-o-s sim now thinks large rosters are just dandy, by the way. And it likes this team as a far heavier favorite than anyone has a right to be at this point. Good team, sure, but I'm not sure the human Turk is feeling as much love as the more logical automated robo-Turk is.
I also re-ran a new week 12 simulator to account for projection changes. (Does not account for the already-played Thursday action).
The weekly sim should now match the weekly projection in the corrected rest-of-season sim.
The r-o-s sim now thinks large rosters are just dandy, by the way. And it likes this team as a far heavier favorite than anyone has a right to be at this point. Good team, sure, but I'm not sure the human Turk is feeling as much love as the more logical automated robo-Turk is.
Last edited by a moderator:
Saint
Footballguy
I like that a lot better Doug!!! as I have 27 rosters spots.... I like it when all of the positions contribute!
BTW... 15 of us with the Brady-Branch combo... whee!!!
I feel almost as special as the 13 with Brady-Welker combo....
But we are all jealous of these two lucky contestants: 100291 and 102605 .... as they are riding the Brady/Welker/Branch trio!
BTW... 15 of us with the Brady-Branch combo... whee!!!
I feel almost as special as the 13 with Brady-Welker combo....
But we are all jealous of these two lucky contestants: 100291 and 102605 .... as they are riding the Brady/Welker/Branch trio!
THHHHHHHHHHHHHEEEEEEE WINNER
18 man team
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2010/108047.php
18 man team
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2010/108047.php
Das Boot
Footballguy
That's a perfect example of a very dangerous small roster team if it makes it to the final 250...CJ, ADP, Andre Johnson...
Solid.
