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Doug Drinen said:
Bug fixed. I forgot to update the rest-of-season simulator for the expanded rosters. So it was cutting off everyone at 24 players, and therefore making the big rosters play without a kicker and/or defense.

I also re-ran a new week 12 simulator to account for projection changes. (Does not account for the already-played Thursday action).

The weekly sim should now match the weekly projection in the corrected rest-of-season sim.

The r-o-s sim now thinks large rosters are just dandy, by the way. And it likes this team as a far heavier favorite than anyone has a right to be at this point. Good team, sure, but I'm not sure the human Turk is feeling as much love as the more logical automated robo-Turk is.
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Did anybody else notice that 18-WR guy is ranked #2 in the Rest Of Season Sim?
 
wollac said:
Doug Drinen said:
Bug fixed. I forgot to update the rest-of-season simulator for the expanded rosters. So it was cutting off everyone at 24 players, and therefore making the big rosters play without a kicker and/or defense.I also re-ran a new week 12 simulator to account for projection changes. (Does not account for the already-played Thursday action). The weekly sim should now match the weekly projection in the corrected rest-of-season sim.The r-o-s sim now thinks large rosters are just dandy, by the way. And it likes this team as a far heavier favorite than anyone has a right to be at this point. Good team, sure, but I'm not sure the human Turk is feeling as much love as the more logical automated robo-Turk is.
Click to expand...
Did anybody else notice that 18-WR guy is ranked #2 in the Rest Of Season Sim?
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I did not notice that!55.30 through the early games which I felt good about until I saw these other postings :bag:Still the only disappointment was Detroit D getting only 1 point. Scott's Was expected as was Stafford's. Branch and Calvin start me off good at WR and Gresham's 8.4 at least gives me a decent floor at TE.Go Rivers!!!!!-QG
 
66.6 from Holmes, Branch & Witten is a good start. Even Barber's 9.2 is a nice safety net, although I sure wish he hadn't come up short on that 2nd TD try.

 
apalmer said:
66.6 from Holmes, Branch & Witten is a good start. Even Barber's 9.2 is a nice safety net, although I sure wish he hadn't come up short on that 2nd TD try.
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Even better than I thought: Post Thursday sim bumped me from #503 with a 49.9% probablility of surviving to #61 with a 90.3% chance. Not that I'm gloating, Turk, honest! Just paying homage. :hophead:
 
up to 72.2, so at least I'm heading in the right direction :lmao: Still a long way to go though :goodposting:

Pretty amazing that a couple of guys hit 100% survival rate already :lmao:

Hardest part this Sunday will be driving home from down south while all this plays out!

-QG

 
84.2 % chance now. Good game from Calvin, Branch, Gronkowski, Saints Defense, and even Choice with a 1yd TD. I am at 73 points right now. Still need my other guys to put up some big points to make sure I get in.

 
TheChairman said:
KarmaPolice said:
Oof. horrible start with Dez and TO combining for about 5 points. :coffee:
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Brady evens it out a little bit.
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Brady's 40+ points helps, and I think Keller was 9-10 points. Just don't like the WRs getting shut down, esp. with Johnson going against Pitt. this week. Need M.Will and M.Thomas to step up this week, or get some bench points from E.Sanders.
 
I know it's way to early to do anything more than make an educated guess... But anyone have an estimation as to what the cut will be this week?

If I'm looking at the turk's updated weekly projections correctly, the 500th team's average score is ~172.

Does that mean Drinen's projecting a cutline in the low 170's?

Does anyone else have a good handle on projecting this thing? If so where would you put the over/under on this thing if you were a sportsbook?

 
geoff8695 said:
I know it's way to early to do anything more than make an educated guess... But anyone have an estimation as to what the cut will be this week?If I'm looking at the turk's updated weekly projections correctly, the 500th team's average score is ~172.Does that mean Drinen's projecting a cutline in the low 170's? Does anyone else have a good handle on projecting this thing? If so where would you put the over/under on this thing if you were a sportsbook?
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Look at the historical number of the 50 percent cut in other non-bye weeks. Low 170s seems reasonable. He bumped it up from 170 based on yesterday's games with 5 out of 6 teams scoring above average.
 
geoff8695 said:
I know it's way to early to do anything more than make an educated guess... But anyone have an estimation as to what the cut will be this week?

If I'm looking at the turk's updated weekly projections correctly, the 500th team's average score is ~172.

Does that mean Drinen's projecting a cutline in the low 170's?

Does anyone else have a good handle on projecting this thing? If so where would you put the over/under on this thing if you were a sportsbook?
Click to expand...
Check out the top line of the weekly sim.
Code: 
--------  Percentiles --------	   Team		   Surv%   AvScore   MAX   80   60   40   20  MIN--------------------+--------+-------+-------------------------------------- CUT LINES ------------------>  233  183  173  166  160  144  --------------------+--------+-------+------------------------------
This means: in 80% of the sims, the cut line was 183 or less. In 60% of the sims, the cut was 173 or less. In 40% of the sims, it was 166 or less, and so on. If I were a sportsbook, I'd put the O/U around 169.
 
Wow!

As many times as I've looked at the weekly simulation projections, can't believe I missed the "CUTOFF" percentages at the top.

Thanks Doug! :thumbup:

 
Got off to a nice start with Welker getting 29, Witten 24.9 and Pettigrew 14.3.......so I have a decent flex score in the bank. Chances of advancing increased from 71% to 92%.

 
The 50% Cut lines for non-bye weeks have ranged from 164.85 to 171. Rough SWAG estimate is 0.2415 * total points scored in all NFL games.

 
Slow start for my team in these early sunday games. Ben no TD's at half. looks like I will need Rivers to put up some big numbers tonight.

 
Hopefully I'll be fine.

Sitting around 150 with my D haven't played yet and Mike Williams out there to improve on the 4.7 I am having to take from TO/E.Sanders. Also have T.Jones and V.Davis out there able to improve on scores.

:crossesfingers:

 
At 152 with Rivers (-14.10), Tolbert (-10.3), Garcon (-11.30), and 49ers Def (-7).

Not sure if I can pull out another week might be a close call.

 
Sitting at 184.25 with Nedney (-12) and SF D (-4) to go. Hoping that the cut stays lower!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Currently at 180.8 with room for improvement from Gore (-8.5), Garcon (-11.3) and 49ers D (-11).

If it's enough, credit to Slingin' Sammy Bradford, stepping up big when Big Ben was bad and Eli was meh.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
126.4 with Rivers/Anderson (-14.10), Hightower/Tolbert (-9.7, -10.3), Garcon (-9), 49ers (-7)

Not sure if Nicks, Best, or Finley would have even helped me out this week. Need a few guys to pull some huge games out of their behinds to avoid the turk :unsure:

 
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