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TS Garp said:
QuizGuy66 said:
I think I'm at 150.15 + Anderson - 9.95Looking bad :unsure: -QG
Hope you make it through -- your insights/analysis in this thread have been pretty amazing. If nothing else, FBG should hire you to officially go analysis on the contest next season.
Thanks :) Though if FBG hired me I wouldn't be able to win ;) I also (believe it or not) have work committments during the football season (particularly the first half) that would make me reluctant to officially do such an untertaking even if it was offered, but I appreciate your comments :)So the Turkomatic has me at 16.4% :scared: Probably need at 30-point effort from Derek Anderson to have a shot. Not impossible (heck I remember when he threw for like 9 TDs against my Bengals a few years ago) but not exactly the sort of thing I'd bet my house on happening. But ya never know :boxing:Here, so far as I can figure, are the ownership percentages for relevant players tonight. My lazy math says the average entry will have 1.287 players going.In no particular order, player then percentage:D Anderson 40.1Hightower 10.3Wells - nobody leftBreaston 0.3Doucet 1.1Fitzgerald 0.4Feely 2.3Ariz D 4.1Alex Smith 1.8Gore 16.5Ginn 2.0Westbrook 0.7J Morgan 1.4V Davis 6.7Crabtree 5.4Nedney 5.1SF D 30.5Good luck tonight everyone! Go Derek Anderson!!!-QG
 
Crazy thing is my superstud QB duo of Rivers/Ben is the one that did me in this week. Damn you Turk

Sitting at 161.40 with 49ers Def (-7) my only hope now. So here is to hoping for a San Diego type of performance.

Good Luck to everyone tonight. This thing has been a blast

 
Velveeta22 said:
Badm said:
Velveeta22 said:
Badm said:
ok, I dont get it. I am at like 520 in rankings, have noone else left to play, 165 points and I somehow have a 38% chance at surviving. What am I missing? Be nice...
The cut has a 38% chance per the sim to fall below 165.
f I look at the teams above, they have more than 165, or is that still using the sim numbers? That would explain it. Thanks for being patient with my dum###.
Depends on the column you are looking at. I believe the "AvScore" column is your expected production via the sim. "Min" is your current score. Ignore "Max" for the most part.
Actually I believe Min is technically the lowest score given to you in the sim.For example, let's say that you have 0 for QB and Derek Anderson left. Your "Min" would be your current score plus the lowest Derek Anderson sim.-QG
 
The fat lady is singing...............my squad is done. Great to have made it this far, especially with Ryan Mathews as my #1 RB (2nd highest salary on squad). Good luck to those moving on.........always one of my favorite contests.

 
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200. Team 111185 | 99.9 | 184

Barring something extremely unlucky, I should make it through.. I don't know how though, my RBs are terrible, save for Foster, but at this point he's pretty much a wash, since everyone left pretty much owns him.

 
I am at #587 now with an 18.9% chance of getting in.

What do you think the cut line will be 164-167ish?

I am thinking if I can get a 12 or 13 point night from the 49ers defense I could sneak in. hmmmmm not likely well I guess an 18.9% chance of that happening.

 
I am at #587 now with an 18.9% chance of getting in. What do you think the cut line will be 164-167ish? I am thinking if I can get a 12 or 13 point night from the 49ers defense I could sneak in. hmmmmm not likely well I guess an 18.9% chance of that happening.
Don't give up yet eaglezzz, FBG's has 49er defensive projections at 10.0, the sixth best play of the week.Cheatsheet for Team Defense - week 12 (Standard league)All our week 12 contentThese are David Dodds's projections Name Team Opp SCK FR INT TD YDallow PTallow FPT1 Cleveland Browns CLE vs CAR 3.3 1 1.3 0.2 307 13 11.92 Philadelphia Eagles PHI at CHI 4.1 0.6 1.4 0.3 328 20 11.33 Pittsburgh Steelers PIT at BUF 3.2 1.1 1.1 0.4 337 21 11.14 New York Jets NYJ vs CIN 2.2 1.1 1.2 0.4 324 18 10.95 New York Giants NYG vs JAX 2.8 1.3 1.3 0.3 347 20 10.96 San Francisco 49ers SF at ARI 3.6 1.2 1.1 0.1 342 20 10.07 Oakland Raiders OAK vs MIA 2.6 0.7 1.2 0.1 325 17 8.98 New Orleans Saints NO at DAL 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.4 348 20 8.69 Baltimore Ravens BAL vs TB 2 0.6 1 0.3 327 19 8.510 Green Bay Packers GB at ATL 2.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 355 24 8.3
 
I am at #587 now with an 18.9% chance of getting in. What do you think the cut line will be 164-167ish? I am thinking if I can get a 12 or 13 point night from the 49ers defense I could sneak in. hmmmmm not likely well I guess an 18.9% chance of that happening.
Don't give up yet eaglezzz, FBG's has 49er defensive projections at 10.0, the sixth best play of the week.Cheatsheet for Team Defense - week 12 (Standard league)All our week 12 contentThese are David Dodds's projections Name Team Opp SCK FR INT TD YDallow PTallow FPT1 Cleveland Browns CLE vs CAR 3.3 1 1.3 0.2 307 13 11.92 Philadelphia Eagles PHI at CHI 4.1 0.6 1.4 0.3 328 20 11.33 Pittsburgh Steelers PIT at BUF 3.2 1.1 1.1 0.4 337 21 11.14 New York Jets NYJ vs CIN 2.2 1.1 1.2 0.4 324 18 10.95 New York Giants NYG vs JAX 2.8 1.3 1.3 0.3 347 20 10.96 San Francisco 49ers SF at ARI 3.6 1.2 1.1 0.1 342 20 10.07 Oakland Raiders OAK vs MIA 2.6 0.7 1.2 0.1 325 17 8.98 New Orleans Saints NO at DAL 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.4 348 20 8.69 Baltimore Ravens BAL vs TB 2 0.6 1 0.3 327 19 8.510 Green Bay Packers GB at ATL 2.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 355 24 8.3
If the Defense could get a TD I think I would make it. 4 Turnovers and 4 sacks maybe make it as well. I am just glad I have at least one player going tonight just to have a chance. Now I can cheer for something while watching the game tonight.
 
7.2% survival chance. Better than being knocked out early for my first year, but disappointing. Dreading the turk tonight. Hoping for Anderson to Hightower TD followed by 49ers kickoff return TD. Repeated several times :sadbanana:

 
I'm done at 157 but have a 6% chance of advancing.

I figure that if Gore, Anderson, Breaston, Fitzgerald, Davis, SF Def, Ariz Def, Nedney, Feeley, Hightower, Wells, and Crabtree all score zero then I'm in.

 
Otis said:
KarmaPolice said:
Otis said:
Das Boot said:
Otis said:
Is there a link for figuring out your scores mid weekend, or are you guys doing this manually?
Someone :thumbup: earlier in this thread set up the below league - it's awesome for seeing your score virtually real time:http://www33.myfantasyleague.com/2010/home/66017#0

You'll have to go back a few pages to the discussion when it was set up to find the default password so you can commandeer one of the unused teams.

ETA - I think it was YellowDog that set up the league.
Sweet, thanks. :thumbup:

171, with Gore still to go (-7 points from LT2). :bowtie:
what was the password - couldn't find the post on first scan
abc123Took just a few minutes to set up.
no need to sign up just go here http://football33.myfantasyleague.com/2010...ints&TEAM=*

and see the scores ...you change offense positions

 
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Sitting at 159.6, but my only remaining player is Gore and he seems like he's taking the rest of the game off after ripping it up in the first quarter.

Tough beat. That's how it goes I guess.

 
Well, I only had Crabtree going. Since no other highly-owned players scored, what are the odds the cutline is low 160s?

I'm living on a prayer here.

 
Well, I only had Crabtree going. Since no other highly-owned players scored, what are the odds the cutline is low 160s?I'm living on a prayer here.
Seems like scoring by contest players was very light tonight... I doubt the game moved the cut line much.
 
Gore going out for the season probably means the end for many Gore owners (including myself) come next week. Was a good run gang...

 
According to the My FBG page the cut is 162.10
Looks like 162.10 to me as well.I'm out. :goodposting: Lost by less than 5. Would have been nice if one of my QB's showed up this week; Shaub (20.70), Flaco (25.25), and Roethlisberger (14.10). One more TD pass by Flaco would have done it.Good luck to those that remain.
 
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Code:
Size	Alive	Surv %18	82	 1.51%19	43	 2.26%20	47	 3.51%21	31	 3.23%22	44	 5.51%23	46	 7.48%24	34	 6.92%25	37	 9.20%26	27	 8.77%27	27	11.59%28	18	10.00%29	17	11.97%30	50	18.45%
 
me verses the cut line:1. +90.75 2. +248.60 3. +69.30 4. +71.30 5. +35.95 6. +40.20 7. +25.95 8. -4.05 :thumbup: 9. +9.75 10. +16.85 11. +15.0012. +3.85
updated... have to see if anyone pulled anything like this but still curious how many teams are out there like this that missed one cut but made all the others. I know there are 500 that missed the first cut this week but how many others that missed an earlier week are there that haven't missed since?
 
updated... have to see if anyone pulled anything like this but still curious how many teams are out there like this that missed one cut but made all the others. I know there are 500 that missed the first cut this week but how many others that missed an earlier week are there that haven't missed since?
Including the 500 that were eliminated this week, there are 1,239 teams that have missed only one cut all year. (This ignores the fact that if different teams had survived, then the cut lines would be different, so then they might not have survived, etc., but that's a minor point.)
 
Im at work and cannot access the query function. Can someone post % owned on players from the remaining 500 teams?

TIA

 
Congrats to the top 500... Here are the Top 10 owned players:

[*]Arian Foster ($13) - 99.0% (Almost 100%)

[*]Mike Williams ($8) - 58.3%

[*]Louis Murphy ($4) - 51.9%

[*]Derek Anderson ($6) - 41.4%

[*]Aaron Rodgers ($29) - 39.8%

[*]Ahmad Bradshaw ($18) - 37.2%

[*]Sebastian Janikowski ($2) - 36.8%

[*]Deion Branch ($3) - 34.8%

[*]Rob Gronkowski ($3) - 33.0%

[*]Pierre Garcon ($12) - 32.2%

I have 4 of the 10... Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing at this point!

 
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Im at work and cannot access the query function. Can someone post % owned on players from the remaining 500 teams?TIA
Code:
Pos	% live	PlayerQB	41.35%	Derek AndersonQB	39.76%	Aaron RodgersQB	26.24%	Ben RoethlisbergerQB	20.87%	Kyle OrtonQB	15.71%	Joe FlaccoQB	13.32%	Philip RiversQB	12.72%	Matthew StaffordQB	11.73%	Tom BradyQB	10.14%	Sam BradfordQB	7.75%	Carson PalmerQB	7.55%	Matt SchaubQB	7.36%	Matt RyanQB	4.97%	Michael VickQB	4.77%	Drew BreesQB	4.77%	Jake DelhommeQB	3.98%	Jason CampbellQB	3.78%	Matt CasselQB	2.58%	Peyton ManningQB	2.39%	Chad HenneQB	2.19%	Eli ManningQB	1.99%	Vince YoungQB	1.79%	Josh FreemanQB	1.79%	Tim TebowQB	1.59%	Alex SmithQB	1.39%	Brett FavreQB	1.19%	Trent EdwardsQB	0.99%	Matt HasselbeckQB	0.80%	Tony RomoQB	0.60%	Jay CutlerQB	0.40%	David GarrardQB	0.40%	Kevin KolbQB	0.40%	Mark SanchezQB	0.40%	Josh JohnsonQB	0.40%	Matt MooreQB	0.20%	Donovan McNabbRB	99.01%	Arian FosterRB	37.18%	Ahmad BradshawRB	27.83%	Thomas JonesRB	24.06%	Leon WashingtonRB	23.66%	C.J. SpillerRB	23.06%	LaDainian TomlinsonRB	19.09%	Michael TurnerRB	17.10%	Mike TolbertRB	14.91%	Tashard ChoiceRB	12.92%	Fred TaylorRB	12.52%	Frank GoreRB	11.93%	Adrian PetersonRB	11.93%	Matt ForteRB	11.93%	Tim HightowerRB	11.53%	Ray RiceRB	11.33%	Bernard ScottRB	10.34%	Chris JohnsonRB	9.54%	Cedric BensonRB	9.54%	Rashad JenningsRB	8.35%	Brandon JacksonRB	7.36%	Ronnie BrownRB	7.16%	Ryan MathewsRB	6.96%	Javon RingerRB	5.77%	Jahvid BestRB	5.57%	Jamaal CharlesRB	5.57%	Darren McFaddenRB	5.37%	Clinton PortisRB	5.17%	Willis McGaheeRB	4.97%	Marion BarberRB	4.77%	Jerome HarrisonRB	4.57%	Reggie BushRB	4.17%	Sammy MorrisRB	4.17%	Cadillac WilliamsRB	4.17%	DeAngelo WilliamsRB	3.78%	Larry JohnsonRB	3.58%	LeSean McCoyRB	3.58%	Donald BrownRB	2.98%	Marshawn LynchRB	2.98%	Mewelde MooreRB	2.78%	Maurice Jones-DrewRB	2.39%	Rashard MendenhallRB	2.19%	Mike BellRB	1.99%	Michael BushRB	1.59%	Jason SnellingRB	1.39%	Knowshon MorenoRB	1.39%	Justin ForsettRB	1.39%	Toby GerhartRB	0.99%	Pierre ThomasRB	0.99%	Ryan GrantRB	0.99%	Shonn GreeneRB	0.99%	Jonathan DwyerRB	0.99%	Leonard WeaverRB	0.80%	Brian WestbrookRB	0.80%	Felix JonesRB	0.80%	Kevin SmithRB	0.80%	Laurence MaroneyRB	0.80%	LeRon McClainRB	0.80%	Maurice MorrisRB	0.60%	Jerious NorwoodRB	0.60%	Chester TaylorRB	0.60%	Deji KarimRB	0.60%	Derrick WardRB	0.60%	James StarksRB	0.60%	Joseph AddaiRB	0.60%	Ricky WilliamsRB	0.40%	Julius JonesRB	0.40%	Correll BuckhalterRB	0.40%	Darren SprolesRB	0.40%	Steven JacksonRB	0.20%	Montario HardestyRB	0.20%	Ben TateRB	0.20%	Brian LeonardRB	0.20%	Kevin FaulkWR	58.25%	Mike WilliamsWR	51.89%	Louis MurphyWR	34.79%	Deion BranchWR	32.21%	Pierre GarconWR	30.02%	Laurent RobinsonWR	28.83%	Greg CamarilloWR	28.43%	Calvin JohnsonWR	26.64%	Bernard BerrianWR	26.04%	Wes WelkerWR	24.45%	Andre JohnsonWR	21.87%	Devery HendersonWR	20.68%	Patrick CraytonWR	13.52%	Roddy WhiteWR	13.52%	Dexter McClusterWR	13.32%	Terrell OwensWR	12.72%	Jacoby JonesWR	12.52%	Malcom FloydWR	11.33%	Dez BryantWR	11.13%	Jabar GaffneyWR	10.54%	Greg JenningsWR	10.54%	Lance MooreWR	10.34%	Johnny KnoxWR	10.34%	Jordan ShipleyWR	9.54%	Miles AustinWR	8.95%	Santana MossWR	8.95%	Davone BessWR	8.75%	Mark ClaytonWR	7.75%	Julian EdelmanWR	7.55%	Legedu NaaneeWR	6.96%	Harry DouglasWR	6.76%	James JonesWR	6.56%	Johnnie HigginsWR	6.56%	Justin GageWR	5.96%	Dwayne BoweWR	5.96%	Mike WallaceWR	5.77%	Santonio HolmesWR	5.57%	Brian FinneranWR	5.57%	Brian HartlineWR	4.57%	Michael CrabtreeWR	4.37%	Emmanuel SandersWR	4.37%	Steve JohnsonWR	4.37%	Sammie StroughterWR	3.98%	Deon ButlerWR	3.98%	Nate BurlesonWR	3.58%	Hakeem NicksWR	3.58%	Mike ThomasWR	2.98%	Marques ColstonWR	2.98%	Brandon MarshallWR	2.98%	Donald DriverWR	2.98%	Austin CollieWR	2.98%	Jason AvantWR	2.78%	Kevin WalterWR	2.78%	Dwayne JarrettWR	2.58%	Brian RobiskieWR	2.58%	Chris ChambersWR	2.39%	Antwaan Randle ElWR	2.39%	Braylon EdwardsWR	2.19%	Randy MossWR	2.19%	Jordy NelsonWR	2.19%	Mohamed MassaquoiWR	1.99%	Troy WilliamsonWR	1.99%	Devin AromashoduWR	1.99%	Eddie RoyalWR	1.99%	Mario ManninghamWR	1.99%	Mike Sims-WalkerWR	1.99%	Nate WashingtonWR	1.99%	Ted GinnWR	1.79%	Reggie WayneWR	1.79%	Anthony GonzalezWR	1.79%	Jeremy MaclinWR	1.79%	Roy WilliamsWR	1.59%	Hines WardWR	1.59%	Robert MeachemWR	1.59%	Derrick MasonWR	1.59%	Josh CribbsWR	1.39%	DeSean JacksonWR	1.39%	Eric DeckerWR	1.39%	Brandon TateWR	1.39%	Darrius Heyward-BeyWR	1.19%	Percy HarvinWR	1.19%	Earl BennettWR	1.19%	Josh MorganWR	0.99%	Brandon GibsonWR	0.99%	Early DoucetWR	0.80%	Anquan BoldinWR	0.80%	Michael JenkinsWR	0.60%	Demaryius ThomasWR	0.60%	Golden TateWR	0.60%	Jerricho CotcheryWR	0.60%	Lee EvansWR	0.60%	Steve Smith - CARWR	0.60%	Steve Smith - NYGWR	0.40%	Brandon LaFellWR	0.40%	Bryant JohnsonWR	0.40%	Craig DavisWR	0.40%	Kenny BrittWR	0.40%	Larry FitzgeraldWR	0.20%	Antonio BryantWR	0.20%	Chad OchocincoWR	0.20%	Chaz SchilensWR	0.20%	Donte StallworthWR	0.20%	Jarett DillardWR	0.20%	Maurice StovallWR	0.20%	Steve BreastonTE	33.60%	Rob GronkowskiTE	27.63%	Jermaine GreshamTE	24.85%	Aaron HernandezTE	21.67%	Jermichael FinleyTE	18.89%	Jason WittenTE	15.90%	Todd HeapTE	13.32%	Chris CooleyTE	13.12%	Zach Miller - OAKTE	8.55%	Visanthe ShiancoeTE	8.55%	Brandon PettigrewTE	7.55%	Dustin KellerTE	6.96%	Anthony FasanoTE	6.76%	Vernon DavisTE	6.16%	Kevin BossTE	5.77%	Ben WatsonTE	4.37%	John CarlsonTE	4.37%	Tony SchefflerTE	3.98%	Brent CelekTE	3.78%	Kellen WinslowTE	3.58%	Antonio GatesTE	3.38%	Tony MoeakiTE	2.58%	Owen DanielsTE	1.99%	Daniel GrahamTE	1.79%	Desmond ClarkTE	1.79%	Zach Miller - JAXTE	1.79%	Marcedes LewisTE	1.59%	Heath MillerTE	1.39%	Bo ScaifeTE	1.39%	Tony GonzalezTE	1.39%	Donald LeeTE	1.19%	Dallas ClarkTE	1.19%	Jared CookTE	1.19%	David ThomasTE	1.19%	Jeremy ShockeyTE	0.99%	Fred DavisTE	0.80%	Greg OlsenTE	0.80%	Martellus BennettTE	0.60%	Dante RosarioTE	0.40%	Fendi OnobunPK	42.74%	Sebastian JanikowskiPK	38.97%	Matt BryantPK	32.01%	Rob BironasPK	22.47%	Jason HansonPK	13.92%	Dan CarpenterPK	12.52%	Neil RackersPK	10.93%	Ryan SuccopPK	9.94%	Graham GanoPK	7.16%	David BuehlerPK	6.76%	Billy CundiffPK	6.56%	Olindo MarePK	6.16%	Rian LindellPK	5.37%	Joe NedneyPK	5.37%	Phil DawsonPK	4.57%	Mike NugentPK	4.17%	David AkersPK	3.98%	Garrett HartleyPK	3.38%	Jeff ReedPK	2.98%	Adam VinatieriPK	2.98%	Jay FeelyPK	2.78%	Nick FolkPK	2.19%	Lawrence TynesPK	1.99%	Nate KaedingPK	1.79%	Robbie GouldPK	1.59%	Mason CrosbyPK	1.59%	Matt PraterPK	1.19%	Ryan LongwellPK	0.99%	John KasayPK	0.99%	Josh ScobeePK	0.80%	Josh BrownPK	0.80%	Shayne GrahamPK	0.40%	Stephen GostkowskiPK	0.40%	Steve HauschkaTD	35.98%	San Francisco 49ersTD	27.24%	Detroit LionsTD	24.06%	New Orleans SaintsTD	14.71%	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTD	12.13%	Cleveland BrownsTD	11.13%	San Diego ChargersTD	10.34%	Chicago BearsTD	9.15%	Kansas City ChiefsTD	8.15%	New York JetsTD	7.95%	St. Louis RamsTD	6.96%	Tennessee TitansTD	6.76%	Denver BroncosTD	6.76%	Oakland RaidersTD	5.96%	Cincinnati BengalsTD	5.77%	Philadelphia EaglesTD	5.77%	Arizona CardinalsTD	5.77%	Seattle SeahawksTD	5.77%	New England PatriotsTD	4.97%	Dallas CowboysTD	4.77%	Carolina PanthersTD	3.18%	Washington RedskinsTD	3.18%	Houston TexansTD	2.78%	Green Bay PackersTD	2.78%	New York GiantsTD	2.78%	Pittsburgh SteelersTD	2.39%	Atlanta FalconsTD	2.19%	Minnesota VikingsTD	1.99%	Baltimore RavensTD	1.99%	Miami DolphinsTD	1.79%	Jacksonville JaguarsTD	0.99%	Indianapolis ColtsTD	0.60%	Buffalo Bills
 
Players used through Week 12:

QB - E Manning 6, Roethlisberger 3, Bradford 3

RB - Foster 10, Gore 9 :moneybag: , R Brown 5, Spiller 1, Choice 0

WR - C Johnson 9, Welker 8, Tampa Mike 7, Garcon 5, Shipley 5, Clayton 4, Murphy 3, Camarillo 2

TE - Hernandez 8, Z Miller 5, Gronk 3

K - Bryant 5, Lindell 4, Hanson 3

D - Raiders 5, Lions 4, 49ers 3

Wow, that Gore injury is a real kick in the gut. I went from having a team that had been ranked as high as #8 in the power rankings at one point (and currently around 50ish range) to likely out of the contest. Come on Ronnie Brown, ONE TIME!!!!!

Congrats to everyone who made the top 500 and good luck next week.

 
Congrats to the top 500... Here are the Top 10 owned players:

[*]Arian Foster ($13) - 99.0% (Almost 100%)

[*]Mike Williams ($8) - 58.3%

[*]Louis Murphy ($4) - 51.9%

[*]Derek Anderson ($6) - 41.4%

[*]Aaron Rodgers ($29) - 39.8%

[*]Ahmad Bradshaw ($18) - 37.2%

[*]Sebastian Janikowski ($2) - 36.8%

[*]Deion Branch ($3) - 34.8%

[*]Rob Gronkowski ($3) - 33.0%

[*]Pierre Garcon ($12) - 32.2%

I have 4 of the 10... Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing at this point!
Wow, I own 7 out of 10.Here's hoping my QBs will set me apart if I make the final 250. (Brady and Flacco)

 

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