Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

[zed2283]

Is there any way to see my previous years' results?

Sure, just take Doug's link and change the 2010 to 2009 in the address bar:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2009/week-5.php

Edit: If you don't remember what your number was last year, I'm not sure how to find it.

Yeah, I think that could be a problem...

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I finished with 126.6 this week and the cutoff was 127.1.

Injuries(Finley, Moreno)

Ineffective(Harrison, Anderson, F. Taylor)

That's what killed me this year.

 

[apalmer]

Every week I spend a long time trying to find the Contest Querier. I know I could bookmark it but I have a ton of bookmarks and it would probably take just as long to find it there.

Is there a way that Doug (or somebody else) can add a link on the results page? There's already some bullets listed at the beginning, shouldn't be too hard to add one more with a link to http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php

It's on the Subscriber Weekly Info page (same as the daily changes to projections, etc.)

 

[Utter Chaos]

Every week I spend a long time trying to find the Contest Querier. I know I could bookmark it but I have a ton of bookmarks and it would probably take just as long to find it there.

Is there a way that Doug (or somebody else) can add a link on the results page? There's already some bullets listed at the beginning, shouldn't be too hard to add one more with a link to http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php

It's on the Subscriber Weekly Info page (same as the daily changes to projections, etc.)

Thanks. I knew it was somewhere. I always forget to look there. I go through all of the tabls (articles, community, contests, free, etc) looking for it there. It seems like putting it on the results page as well wouldn't hurt though.

 

[CalBear]

Out by 1.05. P.Thomas injury combined with Washington/Taylor/Lynch on bye, Nannee/Robinson/Schilens injuries and benching of Aromashodu.

 

[Bruce Leroy]

The "lock" has been broken!!

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2010/101289.php

 

[Donsmith753]

Still alive thanks to a huge week from Gates and Folk.

 

[belljr]

put up 80 BYES and injurues were rough

 

[Yenrub]

Made the cut again. Not sure I will be around much longer. Week 8 is going to hurt my RB's. Do we have to have 2 RB's each week?

Rodgers

Big Ben

---------------

Michael Turner

Ahmad Bradshaw

Arian Foster

Thomas Jones

Larry Johnson

Tashard Choice

---------------

Andre Johnson

Hakeem Nicks

Terrell Owens

Mike Williams (TB)

Louis Murphy

----------------

J. Finley

A. Fasano

----------------

R. Bironas

M. Bryant

----------------

Chargers

Lions

 

[TheChairman]

Feeling a lot better about going 4 K and 4 TD. It's pretty much a 10-20 point bonus every week.

 

[atcdav]

Feeling a lot better about going 4 K and 4 TD. It's pretty much a 10-20 point bonus every week.

different stratetegy, never thought of it. I am trying the no TE method next week. Wish me luck

 

[Bruce Leroy]

Feeling a lot better about going 4 K and 4 TD. It's pretty much a 10-20 point bonus every week.

Don't like it. Waste of cap money since you can only use ONE score from each position each week. Would much rather use cap money on more WR's or RB's or TE'sSigned,2 K2 TD2 QB

 

[Utter Chaos]

Feeling a lot better about going 4 K and 4 TD. It's pretty much a 10-20 point bonus every week.

I agree. I used the same strategy myself (except I went with 5 defenses). I didn't think it made since to only take 1 or 2 kickers and defense and spend a lot of money to get a good one. I took all cheap ones (11$ for 4 K and 16$ for 5 D). The more you have to more likely at least one of them will put up good numbers. Just like what Arizona and Detroit did this week.I'm also glad I went with 3 QBs. An injury, benching, or bad week while your other QB is on a bye could be costly, especially down the road.However, because of this strategy my WR are not that impressive. Hopefully Laurent Robinson can step it up along with a change of scenery for Deion Branch.

 

[Utter Chaos]

Feeling a lot better about going 4 K and 4 TD. It's pretty much a 10-20 point bonus every week.

Don't like it. Waste of cap money since you can only use ONE score from each position each week. Would much rather use cap money on more WR's or RB's or TE'sSigned,2 K2 TD2 QB

Thus far the numbers don't support it.The overall survival % is 46.84Defense: one or two=45.04% / four or five=49.72%Kicker: one or two=44.62%, / four or five=48.61%QB: one or two=46.15%/ three or four=48.35%

 

[CalBear]

Feeling a lot better about going 4 K and 4 TD. It's pretty much a 10-20 point bonus every week.

Don't like it. Waste of cap money since you can only use ONE score from each position each week. Would much rather use cap money on more WR's or RB's or TE'sSigned,2 K2 TD2 QB

The cap money isn't very much. In five weeks my four K (total of $8) averaged 13.5 points and four D (total of $10) 15.5. That's probably 10-15 points above the the median 2-K and 2-D setup, and I didn't have a score below 10 points at either position. That's at a cost of only $2-$4; clearly great value for that little money. The biggest expense is in roster slots, but those are not rare in this version of the contest.

 

[gregjcross]

The "lock" has been broken!!

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2010/101289.php

Couldnt buy in on the "Lock" due to the lack of depth at QB and WR. Great team while it lasted though

 

[QuizGuy66]

Feeling a lot better about going 4 K and 4 TD. It's pretty much a 10-20 point bonus every week.

Don't like it. Waste of cap money since you can only use ONE score from each position each week. Would much rather use cap money on more WR's or RB's or TE'sSigned,2 K2 TD2 QB

Thus far the numbers don't support it.The overall survival % is 46.84Defense: one or two=45.04% / four or five=49.72%Kicker: one or two=44.62%, / four or five=48.61%QB: one or two=46.15%/ three or four=48.35%

The sweet spot appears to be 3 for kickers, 3 for defenses, 4 for tight ends.Look at the individual numbers at these positions and you'll see what I mean.-QG

 

[Exfireman_62]

Just made it....cutoff was 127.10 and I scored 127.30. First time i checked all season....Forgot about it actually. Now that I'll be paying attention my team will plummet.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Feeling a lot better about going 4 K and 4 TD. It's pretty much a 10-20 point bonus every week.

I went with four K and three D. Given how poorly my cheap WRs performed this year, the extra defense would have been a better investment.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Feeling a lot better about going 4 K and 4 TD. It's pretty much a 10-20 point bonus every week.

Don't like it. Waste of cap money since you can only use ONE score from each position each week. Would much rather use cap money on more WR's or RB's or TE'sSigned,2 K2 TD2 QB

Thus far the numbers don't support it.The overall survival % is 46.84Defense: one or two=45.04% / four or five=49.72%Kicker: one or two=44.62%, / four or five=48.61%QB: one or two=46.15%/ three or four=48.35%

The sweet spot appears to be 3 for kickers, 3 for defenses, 4 for tight ends.Look at the individual numbers at these positions and you'll see what I mean.-QG

That sounds right. My three TEs are killing every TE not named Gates, and my Ks are scoring about 15 points per week.

 

[rustycolts]

Made cut by 1 point I'll take it.Hopefully make week 6 and then you can stick a fork in me week 7 to many on bye.

 

[Fullback Fro]

Holy Crap. Just went to check my team

1. Entry 102915 258.35

 

[QuizGuy66]

Holy Crap. Just went to check my team1. Entry 102915 258.35

Way to go, Fro!Just don't get too cocky - the Turk doesn't it like it when punks start getting all cocky and stuff.-QG

 

[fightingillini]

Holy Crap. Just went to check my team1. Entry 102915 258.35

You have a really nice team.......just get through Rivers' bye and you could seriously contend.

 

[fightingillini]

Made it easily again this week.....I have been consiststently 23-50 points over the cutoff....great for making it far, but I need my WRs to step up if I want to contend for some cash.

 

[fightingillini]

Feeling a lot better about going 4 K and 4 TD. It's pretty much a 10-20 point bonus every week.

Don't like it. Waste of cap money since you can only use ONE score from each position each week. Would much rather use cap money on more WR's or RB's or TE'sSigned,2 K2 TD2 QB

Thus far the numbers don't support it.The overall survival % is 46.84Defense: one or two=45.04% / four or five=49.72%Kicker: one or two=44.62%, / four or five=48.61%QB: one or two=46.15%/ three or four=48.35%

The sweet spot appears to be 3 for kickers, 3 for defenses, 4 for tight ends.Look at the individual numbers at these positions and you'll see what I mean.-QG

That sounds right. My three TEs are killing every TE not named Gates, and my Ks are scoring about 15 points per week.

Agree, my TE committee of Witten, Pettigrew and Watson has been very solid and occasionally used for my flex score. With exception of Week 1, these three have a average top score of 20.6.....I will take that every time for only using $27 of my cap.

 

[bro1ncos]

Still alive for another week.

I have now used all my players except Derek Anderson and Laurent Robinson. Not much hope for Anderson with Orton and Rivers, but hopefully Robinson can get in the scoring act soon with a solid performance.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Flex theory: I've used my RBs 3 times and TEs twice as flex. I think this means my WRs stink.

 

[Gr00vus]

Somehow my team is still alive even though my only 2 QBs are Stafford and Roethlisberger. I'm sure now that I have an actual QB I'll miss the cut this week.

 

[Fullback Fro]

Holy Crap. Just went to check my team1. Entry 102915 258.35

You have a really nice team.......just get through Rivers' bye and you could seriously contend.

Someone's going to lucky. I'll have no qualms if that happens to be yours truly. Still, its a long shot at best.

 

[comfortably numb]

Holy Crap. Just went to check my team1. Entry 102915 258.35

You have a really nice team.......just get through Rivers' bye and you could seriously contend.

Someone's going to lucky. I'll have no qualms if that happens to be yours truly. Still, its a long shot at best.

You should sell your team to the highest bidder!

 

[jdoggydogg]

That sounds right. My three TEs are killing every TE not named Gates, and my Ks are scoring about 15 points per week.

Agree, my TE committee of Witten, Pettigrew and Watson has been very solid and occasionally used for my flex score. With exception of Week 1, these three have a average top score of 20.6.....I will take that every time for only using $27 of my cap.

Exactly. The PPG from these three has been outstanding, and one major injury still leaves me with two viable scoring options.Zach Miller $15 10.30 9.40 18.40 34.70 21.20 Visanthe Shiancoe $12 19.60 17.60 2.20 0.00 5.80 Ben Watson $5 6.00 12.20 18.20 15.00 12.00

 

[billyjohnson]

Anyone beat 218.9??

Tom Brady $24 30.90

Joe Flacco $17 11.60

Ronnie Brown $19 15.50

Ahmad Bradshaw $18 16.30

Arian Foster $13 42.30

LaDainian Tomlinson $12 8.80

Thomas Jones $7 3.90

Mike Tolbert $1 2.60

Miles Austin $27 30.60

Wes Welker $21 26.40

Dez Bryant $13 13.60

Mike Williams $8 14.00

Bernard Berrian $7 1.30

Louis Murphy $4 6.80

Deion Branch $3 10.10

Dwayne Jarrett $3 6.00

Mark Clayton $3 21.90

Johnnie Lee Higgins $1 1.25

Zach Miller $15 10.30

Chris Cooley $13 17.00

Aaron Hernandez $5 6.00

David Buehler $4 1.00

Dan Carpenter $3 10.00

San Francisco 49ers $5 3.00

Tennessee Titans $4 8.00

------------------------------------

TOTAL 218.90

CUTOFF 125.90

Entry 100291 This entry is still alive.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

Rivers/Floyd hook-up was a big help for me this week.

 

[B. Nugget]

I figured my average up after 5 weeks - 191.20 (with a high of 202.7 and low of 181.65.)

If only all of my teams were that consistent!

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Due to my not paying attention I grabbed the wrong Zach Miller (I mean he was 7 bucks? who would have thought the backup te oin jax would be worth 7 bucks) hell even marcedes woulda been great. but as such the planned bye week of Miller vs SD didn't work out so well and my gronk/hernandez TE platoon is off this week. so i'm gonna need BIG days everywhere elese. I think floyd will help a bit...

maybe I spoke too soonnot only did the other Zach Miller actualy get 4.8 alex smith, lions d, and seabass also helped180.45a mere 53 points above the cutoff...

 

[Dodge]

I'm in major trouble week 8. But I've been averaging 190 pts a week. If I can get passed week 8 with no major injuries I'll have a chance.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I figured my average up after 5 weeks - 191.20 (with a high of 202.7 and low of 181.65.)If only all of my teams were that consistent!

My team has been almost comically consistent too so far:170.10171.20187.75161.15171.05Berrian, Stafford, Derek Anderson, and Bernard Scott are the only 4 guys out of 26 that I haven't used yet. On the flip side, Rivers is the only guy I've used all 5 weeks. ADP has been used in all 4 weeks that he's played.Hopefully my diverse line-up continues to come through. Hopeful this week as Scott, Gresham, and Spiller are my only bye-week players but ya never know - nobody's ever a in this thing By the way congratulations to those who remaining for making the top 1/2 of all FBGs -QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

One of the interesting arguments that has been made by the 18-er crowd is that there were a higher proportion of "junk" entries amongst the 18-player entries at that this is part of the explanation for their lower survival rate to date in the contest. (They also impugned the honor of 21-kicker guy in the process). Anyhow I was curious what the week-to-week results showed. If their hypothesis is correct, at some point the "junk" entries should largely be filtered out and the difference in survival would presumably be greatly reduced if not disappear.

I've grouped the entries by size. 18 (18ers get their own category), 19-21, 22-24, 25-27, and 28-30

Here's the results by week along with the overall survival percentage

Week 1 - 92.07% survival rate:

18: 88.68%

19-21: 93.03%

22-24: 95.96%

25-27: 97.14%

28-30: 95.62%

Week 2 - 83.41% survival rate:

18: 82.32%

19-21: 83.46%

22-24: 83.64%

25-27: 87.23%

28-30: 85.36%

Week 3 - 84.96% survival rate:

18: 80.07%

19-21: 85.48%

22-24: 89.60%

25-27: 92.12%

28-30: 94.83%

Week 4 - 85.32% survival rate:

18: 79.31%

19-21: 85.48%

22-24: 91.46%

25-27: 93.48%

28-30: 94.34%

Week 5 - 84.15% survival rate:

18: 83.51%

19-21: 83.31%

22-24: 85.95%

25-27: 85.76%

28-30: 84.76%

Well that's pretty interesting. Perhaps week 5 is an anomaly and perhaps the bigger rosters had more of their pet guys off or underperforming this week (or the smaller rosters had less of their favorite studs off or underperforming) or perhaps week 4 was sort of a "great purge" of flawed smaller entries. It will be very interesting to see if week 5 proves the exception or the rule moving forward.

-QG

 

[Doug Drinen]

Preliminary week 6 sim

Updated power rankings

This here is a great-looking team. At least 30 points over the cut every week and is already past the byes of most of its top players (Brady, Peterson, Welker, Austin, Witten/Hernandez).

 

[QuizGuy66]

Preliminary week 6 sim

Updated power rankings

This here is a great-looking team. At least 30 points over the cut every week and is already past the byes of most of its top players (Brady, Peterson, Welker, Austin, Witten/Hernandez).

86.9% right in the middle of the pack.Is this the week for 21-kicker guy? The Turkomatic has him at only 26.2%

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

This here is a great-looking team. At least 30 points over the cut every week and is already past the byes of most of its top players (Brady, Peterson, Welker, Austin, Witten/Hernandez).

Now watch the Turk smack him down just for kicks -QG

 

[Bad_Mo]

Barely made the cut this week with some underperforming guys and my QB on a BYE. Should be headed towards week 10 where it will get dicey yet again. Alot of BYEs for me week 10.

Hey - .01 above the cut or 100 above it...all the same result.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

that last play was way close to maybe doing it for vbd. That woulda been crazy!I salute your bravery and bravado VBD!But long live the Turk! -QG

Missed it by THAT much!I turned the game off with 11 minutes left and didnt see the almost td. I would have woken the neighbors if i did.apparently i picked the wrong studs. good luck all 24 man and under rosters.lol, kidding. good luck everyone.

 

[H8fulHuck]

Just having Big Ben on your team for moral support seems to have been effective weeks 1-5

Big Ben entries still alive: 992 Survival rate for ALL teams: 46.84 percentSurvival rate for teams with these players: 48.48 percent
Ben AND Santonio, not so much...

Ben AND Santonio entries still alive:   47Survival rate for ALL teams: 46.84 percentSurvival rate for teams with these players: 38.21 percent

 

[Balco]

Here's hoping Deon Branch does well in New England. My receivers are a train wreck:

Pierre Garcon

Mike Thomas

Laurent Robinson

Sammie Stroughter

Mike Williams (TB)

Justin Gage

Louis Murphy

Deon Branch

I think I have about 5 tds between them.

 

[QuizGuy66]

that last play was way close to maybe doing it for vbd. That woulda been crazy!I salute your bravery and bravado VBD!But long live the Turk! -QG

Missed it by THAT much!I turned the game off with 11 minutes left and didnt see the almost td. I would have woken the neighbors if i did.apparently i picked the wrong studs. good luck all 24 man and under rosters.lol, kidding. good luck everyone.

Thanks for making it fun VBD I mean in a way this is all but a duck race now - there's nothing we can do with our teams - it's all in God's (and the Turk's) hands I got knocked out right out of the box last year with guys I thought who were values who all decided not to show up on the same day. Ya just never know.A good entry will win the title, for sure, but there'll be a heavy does of luck along the way too.-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Just having Big Ben on your team for moral support seems to have been effective weeks 1-5

Big Ben entries still alive:	992 	Survival rate for ALL teams: 46.84 percentSurvival rate for teams with these players: 48.48 percent

Ben AND Santonio, not so much...

Ben AND Santonio entries still alive:   47Survival rate for ALL teams: 46.84 percentSurvival rate for teams with these players: 38.21 percent

My favorite is the rate for all non-Arian Foster owners 1199 non-Foster owners remain out of 4785 that started. A survival rate of 25.06% -QG

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

IMO, the most important factor in this contest is player selection, not roster size.

Part of player selection is going with studs vs. no studs. IMO, that's the more relevant discussion than roster size.Assuming that the #1 player at each skill position is considered a "stud," here are the ownership survival rates for teams with each of those top studs:Survival Rate Overall Contest Survival RateAaron Rodgers:Still Alive 2152 72.31 65.24Chris Johnson:Still Alive 1282 69.33 65.24Andre Johnson:Still Alive 1994 69.82 65.24Antonio Gates:Still Alive 388 82.55 65.24All 4 combined:Still Alive 38 88.37 65.24So for each top player, the survival rate is higher than the overall rate, and highest when you combine all 4, even though the rosters with these players are likely shorter, and shorter rosters have a lower than average survival rate. Taking out the crappy rosters without any depth at all, these survival rates would be even higher.A larger % of teams with these players will get eliminated during their bye weeks (though I have 3 of these guys, and have used none of them every week), and of course if they get injured and miss time, but if they can survive until the finals, they likely will be able to outscore teams without studs, if weeks 14-16 are like weeks 1-3. Considering that only Gates has performed as the #1 at his position so far, there's also lots of upside for these studs.I think this type of analysis is much more effective in determining if a stud/smaller roster strategy is viable than just lumping all the smaller rosters together.

Updating the survival rates of the "top stud" Rodger/Chris Johnson/Andre Johnson/Gates strategy group, none of these guys was eliminated this week, meaning 33 of 43 are still alive (76.74% vs. 46.84% overall).With most-owned Foster added to this group, they still have a 100% survival rate (16 for 16).

1199 non-Foster owners remain out of 4785 that started. A survival rate of 25.06%

Interestingly, only 37.2% of the original "top stud" strategy group had Foster (16 out of 43), well below the contest average, making me think a good number of these rosters were put together fairly hastily. However, this non-Foster group has actually survived far better than average, at 62.96% (17 of 27) vs. 25.06% for all non-Foster owners.After starting out 76 for 76 surviving 3 weeks into the contest, we lost 11 Rodgers/Chris Johnson/Andre Johnson/Finley/Foster entries (those "top stud" strategists who believed the Finley hype as #1 TE over Gates) last week and another 5 this week, leaving 61 of 76 surviving (78.95% vs. 46.84% overall). This group has still beat the average elimination rate every week, but is in trouble this coming week if Rodgers is out, joining Finley. Unfortunately, my only 2 guys with byes this week are the backups for Rodgers and Finley, so if Rodgers is out, I'm toast (but at least I've outlasted the most vocal smaller-roster bashers).It will be interesting to see if the "top stud" strategy group continues to survive much better than most through the bye weeks, despite the fact that only Gates has performed at a #1 level. Those that do survive should be in great shape for the playoffs.

 

[pizzatyme]

I'm a firm believer in the 3 K, 3 D setup.

I also would have gone 4 TEs, but with Big Ben on my roster, I decided to go 4 QBs.

So far so good.

Orton/Stafford/D. Anderson/Big Ben

Cheapo Ds and mid level Ks.