Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

[PAO]

Top 10 in the pre-mnf sim... I had forgotten Patrick Crayton was on my roster.

 

[Lock]

Wow 139.35 Bironas (-11)

82.1 | 141 | 159 141 140 140 140 140

Going to be a long wait, but its fun

 

[jdoggydogg]

Love my team for the most part, but my RBs have been awful:

Arian Foster

Shonn Greene

Leon Washington

Kevin Faulk

Clinton Portis

CJ Spiller

I think I'll get knocked out this week without Foster unless by some miracle Buffalo realizes that Spiller is one of their only real weapons and gives him more than two touches.

 

[Lock]

1. Team 104732 | 100.0 | 209 | 253 215 208 204 203 203

2. Team 106041 | 100.0 | 206 | 258 208 204 204 204 204

3. Team 107459 | 100.0 | 205 | 243 203 203 203 203 203

4. Team 101741 | 100.0 | 204 | 252 211 204 200 196 196

5. Team 102491 | 100.0 | 204 | 204 204 204 204 204 204

6. Team 111031 | 100.0 | 204 | 204 204 204 204 204 204

7. Team 108377 | 100.0 | 202 | 202 202 202 202 202 202

8. Team 101293 | 100.0 | 202 | 258 207 202 199 196 190

9. Team 110012 | 100.0 | 201 | 241 205 202 199 197 192

10. Team 109328 | 100.0 | 201 | 245 207 201 197 193 191

Top 10 in the Sim

Id bet half of them out of this next week poor bye planning, and injuries.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

After doing some real work for a week or two, I've turned my attention back to my contest database. I now have a relatively painless way to bring in the player scores (retroactively, not live) and figure out which scores "count" for each roster, each week. This will be most useful at the end of the season - for example, we'll be able to actually calculate how every roster would have done for the whole season and answer questions like "Would 18-man rosters have actually performed better than larger rosters in weeks 14-16 if they were all still alive?" as well as identifying "hard luck awards" like teams who just barely missed the cut one week and otherwise would have won the whole contest had they survived, etc. We can also then answer questions like, "Which player was 'used' the most?" and "Which position was most often used as a flex?"

Fun fact for the afternoon: There are 35 teams that not only were eliminated in week 1, but would have missed the cut every single week this year so far.

 

[TheGrimReaper]

Im going to barely survive this week, but it's over soon for me

Having lost Finley last week, still waiting on R. Bush to return, and now w/Cooley poss/prob out from concussion, it's looking GRIM for the GRIM REAPER.....

In retrospect, I should have gone larger roster than 22, and should have had a 3rd TE.

Can I outrun the turk for another week?

We will see

 

[Touchdown There]

After 6 weeks, who are the top value plays?

In no order:

Big Ben - $14

Orton - $12

Arian Foster - $13

Mike Williams (TB) - $8

Brandon Jackson - $4

A. Hernandez - $5

Austin Collie - $8

Rosters with a combo of these players and 3-4 selections under Kickers and D are going to be tough.

 

[stlrams]

I have 3 - Big Ben, Foster and Hernandez plus 3 K and 3 defs. Add in D Branch for good measure.

 

[eurotrashman]

After 6 weeks, who are the top value plays?

In no order:

Big Ben - $14

Orton - $12

Arian Foster - $13

Mike Williams (TB) - $8

Brandon Jackson - $4

A. Hernandez - $5

Austin Collie - $8

Rosters with a combo of these players and 3-4 selections under Kickers and D are going to be tough.

D. Bess - $4??

 

[jdoggydogg]

After 6 weeks, who are the top value plays?

In no order:

Big Ben - $14

Orton - $12

Arian Foster - $13

Mike Williams (TB) - $8

Brandon Jackson - $4

A. Hernandez - $5

Austin Collie - $8

Rosters with a combo of these players and 3-4 selections under Kickers and D are going to be tough.

I believe Ben Watson was around $5, and that's a steal.

 

[Abrantes]

I need a big night from Rob Bironas!!!! Just anywhere in the 15+ range.

Still hanging on, but looking shaky. First week that I'm fretting the cut, and next week will be rough without Calvin, Best and Foster.

 

[QuizGuy66]

After doing some real work for a week or two, I've turned my attention back to my contest database. I now have a relatively painless way to bring in the player scores (retroactively, not live) and figure out which scores "count" for each roster, each week. This will be most useful at the end of the season - for example, we'll be able to actually calculate how every roster would have done for the whole season and answer questions like "Would 18-man rosters have actually performed better than larger rosters in weeks 14-16 if they were all still alive?" as well as identifying "hard luck awards" like teams who just barely missed the cut one week and otherwise would have won the whole contest had they survived, etc. We can also then answer questions like, "Which player was 'used' the most?" and "Which position was most often used as a flex?" Fun fact for the afternoon: There are 35 teams that not only were eliminated in week 1, but would have missed the cut every single week this year so far.

And at the 35 that would miss every cut. Should be some sort of prize if someone manages to go all the way Oh, um, how many of those 35 rostered only 18 guys? -QG

 

[Billy Costigan Jr]

I have 3 - Big Ben, Foster and Hernandez plus 3 K and 3 defs. Add in D Branch for good measure.

Me too...minus D.Branch...

 

[QuizGuy66]

After 6 weeks, who are the top value plays?

In no order:

Big Ben - $14

Orton - $12

Arian Foster - $13

Mike Williams (TB) - $8

Brandon Jackson - $4

A. Hernandez - $5

Austin Collie - $8

Rosters with a combo of these players and 3-4 selections under Kickers and D are going to be tough.

Louis Murphy should belong here.I think that Deion Branch will probably live here as well.

The Lions defense is another one - as well as Jason Hanson for that matter.

If Roethlisberger makes the list (and I think there's more than a couple roster carcasses that would like to take that one back right about now) you have to include Santonio as well.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

After doing some real work for a week or two, I've turned my attention back to my contest database. I now have a relatively painless way to bring in the player scores (retroactively, not live) and figure out which scores "count" for each roster, each week. This will be most useful at the end of the season - for example, we'll be able to actually calculate how every roster would have done for the whole season and answer questions like "Would 18-man rosters have actually performed better than larger rosters in weeks 14-16 if they were all still alive?" as well as identifying "hard luck awards" like teams who just barely missed the cut one week and otherwise would have won the whole contest had they survived, etc. We can also then answer questions like, "Which player was 'used' the most?" and "Which position was most often used as a flex?" Fun fact for the afternoon: There are 35 teams that not only were eliminated in week 1, but would have missed the cut every single week this year so far.

Iggy, do you have anything slick that will give a count of how many people have each of the bye-week players? Or that would give the "real" distribution of rosters in a given week (i.e. how many guys only have, say, 15 starters this week). That'd be awesome -QG

 

[jdoggydogg]

After 6 weeks, who are the top value plays?

In no order:

Big Ben - $14

Orton - $12

Arian Foster - $13

Mike Williams (TB) - $8

Brandon Jackson - $4

A. Hernandez - $5

Austin Collie - $8

Rosters with a combo of these players and 3-4 selections under Kickers and D are going to be tough.

Louis Murphy should belong here.I think that Deion Branch will probably live here as well.

The Lions defense is another one - as well as Jason Hanson for that matter.

If Roethlisberger makes the list (and I think there's more than a couple roster carcasses that would like to take that one back right about now) you have to include Santonio as well.

-QG

I own Branch, but yesterday may very well be a fluke. I don't think he'll come close to those numbers again this year.

 

[kylechoffman]

Id bet half of them out of this next week poor bye planning, and injuries.

I put up close to 200 this week but I said a few weeks back that I would be gone after week 7 (AJ, Foster, LT2, Best, Keller byes). Here's hoping Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, ADP pull me through week 7.

 

[Road Warriors]

After 6 weeks, who are the top value plays?

In no order:

Big Ben - $14

Orton - $12

Arian Foster - $13

Mike Williams (TB) - $8

Brandon Jackson - $4

A. Hernandez - $5

Austin Collie - $8

Rosters with a combo of these players and 3-4 selections under Kickers and D are going to be tough.

I have 5 of these players: Ben, Orton, Foster, Williams and Hernandez... to go with my 3 K & 3 D.

 

[QuizGuy66]

After 6 weeks, who are the top value plays?

In no order:

Big Ben - $14

Orton - $12

Arian Foster - $13

Mike Williams (TB) - $8

Brandon Jackson - $4

A. Hernandez - $5

Austin Collie - $8

Rosters with a combo of these players and 3-4 selections under Kickers and D are going to be tough.

Louis Murphy should belong here.I think that Deion Branch will probably live here as well.

The Lions defense is another one - as well as Jason Hanson for that matter.

If Roethlisberger makes the list (and I think there's more than a couple roster carcasses that would like to take that one back right about now) you have to include Santonio as well.

-QG

I own Branch, but yesterday may very well be a fluke. I don't think he'll come close to those numbers again this year.

I can see him sneaking in with a 20-spot a couple more times this year. Production in the low-10s (say 5-catches for 66 yards) is not unreasonable for him I don't think.-QG

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

After doing some real work for a week or two, I've turned my attention back to my contest database. I now have a relatively painless way to bring in the player scores (retroactively, not live) and figure out which scores "count" for each roster, each week. This will be most useful at the end of the season - for example, we'll be able to actually calculate how every roster would have done for the whole season and answer questions like "Would 18-man rosters have actually performed better than larger rosters in weeks 14-16 if they were all still alive?" as well as identifying "hard luck awards" like teams who just barely missed the cut one week and otherwise would have won the whole contest had they survived, etc. We can also then answer questions like, "Which player was 'used' the most?" and "Which position was most often used as a flex?" Fun fact for the afternoon: There are 35 teams that not only were eliminated in week 1, but would have missed the cut every single week this year so far.

And at the 35 that would miss every cut. Should be some sort of prize if someone manages to go all the way Oh, um, how many of those 35 rostered only 18 guys? -QG

19 of them were 18-man rosters. Another 7 were 19-man rosters. Then there was 1 20-man, 1 21-man, 2 24-man, 1 29-man, and 4 30-man rosters. Interestingly, of the 5 rosters that had 29-30 players, all five of them were "XX-kicker-guy" rosters. They had 12, 17, 18, 18, and 19 kickers, respectively. On the other hand, a surprisingly small number of the 18-man rosters were "junk" entries.

 

[jdoggydogg]

After 6 weeks, who are the top value plays?

In no order:

Big Ben - $14

Orton - $12

Arian Foster - $13

Mike Williams (TB) - $8

Brandon Jackson - $4

A. Hernandez - $5

Austin Collie - $8

Rosters with a combo of these players and 3-4 selections under Kickers and D are going to be tough.

Louis Murphy should belong here.I think that Deion Branch will probably live here as well.

The Lions defense is another one - as well as Jason Hanson for that matter.

If Roethlisberger makes the list (and I think there's more than a couple roster carcasses that would like to take that one back right about now) you have to include Santonio as well.

-QG

I own Branch, but yesterday may very well be a fluke. I don't think he'll come close to those numbers again this year.

I can see him sneaking in with a 20-spot a couple more times this year. Production in the low-10s (say 5-catches for 66 yards) is not unreasonable for him I don't think.-QG

Sure. I could see that.

 

[apalmer]

Id bet half of them out of this next week poor bye planning, and injuries.

I put up close to 200 this week but I said a few weeks back that I would be gone after week 7 (AJ, Foster, LT2, Best, Keller byes). Here's hoping Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, ADP pull me through week 7.

Entry 108828? Ouch--No TE, and your 3 WRs and flex will be Henderson, Camarillo, Crayton & James Jones? I've seen stranger things happen (like me surviving Week 4), but I can see why you'll be tense.

 

[eaglezzz]

After 6 weeks, who are the top value plays?

In no order:

Big Ben - $14

Orton - $12

Arian Foster - $13

Mike Williams (TB) - $8

Brandon Jackson - $4

A. Hernandez - $5

Austin Collie - $8

Rosters with a combo of these players and 3-4 selections under Kickers and D are going to be tough.

I have Big Ben $14, Rivers $19 (should be on your list above all QB's), Foster $13, Bradshaw $18, Tolbert $1, T. Jones $7, Williams $8, Murphy $4, Bess $4, Branch $3 - I feel I got some nice value plays along with the 3 Def/3 Kickers and Calvin Johnson and B. Marshall and Garcon as my star WR's. The only real mistake I feel like I made was only taking 3 TE's but if Finley never got injuried I would be alright. I only have Scheffler and Gronkowski the rest of the way.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

After doing some real work for a week or two, I've turned my attention back to my contest database. I now have a relatively painless way to bring in the player scores (retroactively, not live) and figure out which scores "count" for each roster, each week. This will be most useful at the end of the season - for example, we'll be able to actually calculate how every roster would have done for the whole season and answer questions like "Would 18-man rosters have actually performed better than larger rosters in weeks 14-16 if they were all still alive?" as well as identifying "hard luck awards" like teams who just barely missed the cut one week and otherwise would have won the whole contest had they survived, etc. We can also then answer questions like, "Which player was 'used' the most?" and "Which position was most often used as a flex?" Fun fact for the afternoon: There are 35 teams that not only were eliminated in week 1, but would have missed the cut every single week this year so far.

Iggy, do you have anything slick that will give a count of how many people have each of the bye-week players? Or that would give the "real" distribution of rosters in a given week (i.e. how many guys only have, say, 15 starters this week). That'd be awesome -QG

I can do this... I'm about to leave for the day, but I'll update the db tomorrow with the week 6 results and then put this together for week 7.

 

[Touchdown There]

Id bet half of them out of this next week poor bye planning, and injuries.

I put up close to 200 this week but I said a few weeks back that I would be gone after week 7 (AJ, Foster, LT2, Best, Keller byes). Here's hoping Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, ADP pull me through week 7.

I feel the same with Andre Johnson, Foster, Shonn Greene, Jacoby Jones, Lions D on bye week 7 in combo with all San Diego WRs with a pulled hammy. I decided not to be excited about my roster until after week 7. Not giving up hope though because there are 4,919 entries still alive with Foster and 1,593 entries left alive with Finley + Foster.

 

[apalmer]

Id bet half of them out of this next week poor bye planning, and injuries.

I put up close to 200 this week but I said a few weeks back that I would be gone after week 7 (AJ, Foster, LT2, Best, Keller byes). Here's hoping Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, ADP pull me through week 7.

I feel the same with Andre Johnson, Foster, Shonn Greene, Jacoby Jones, Lions D on bye week 7 in combo with all San Diego WRs with a pulled hammy. I decided not to be excited about my roster until after week 7. Not giving up hope though because there are 4,919 entries still alive with Foster and 1,593 entries left alive with Finley + Foster.

I haven't crunched any numbers (I'll leave that for QG and others much more qualified than I am), but my gut feeling is that next week's cut should be significantly lower than this weeks: Foster, Schaub, AJ, Peyton, Wayne, Clark, Garcon, Colie, Addai, LT2, Greene, Keller, Megatron, Pettigrew, Best,Hanson, and the Lions D all on byes, plus Finley, Gates, DeSean Jackson, Floyd, Heap, Portis and others all out (or probably out) with injuries HAS TO have a major impact on scoring.Edited to add Wayne to the list

 

[Touchdown There]

I agree with that. Just hoping it is in the 120's range...

 

[QuizGuy66]

After doing some real work for a week or two, I've turned my attention back to my contest database. I now have a relatively painless way to bring in the player scores (retroactively, not live) and figure out which scores "count" for each roster, each week. This will be most useful at the end of the season - for example, we'll be able to actually calculate how every roster would have done for the whole season and answer questions like "Would 18-man rosters have actually performed better than larger rosters in weeks 14-16 if they were all still alive?" as well as identifying "hard luck awards" like teams who just barely missed the cut one week and otherwise would have won the whole contest had they survived, etc. We can also then answer questions like, "Which player was 'used' the most?" and "Which position was most often used as a flex?" Fun fact for the afternoon: There are 35 teams that not only were eliminated in week 1, but would have missed the cut every single week this year so far.

Iggy, do you have anything slick that will give a count of how many people have each of the bye-week players? Or that would give the "real" distribution of rosters in a given week (i.e. how many guys only have, say, 15 starters this week). That'd be awesome -QG

I can do this... I'm about to leave for the day, but I'll update the db tomorrow with the week 6 results and then put this together for week 7.

-QG

 

[bonesman]

| 100.0 |

beautiful, beautiful thing

...next week will be scary though... got tons of byes and then M. Austin and Bradford going on MNF for me.

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

I own Branch, but yesterday may very well be a fluke. I don't think he'll come close to those numbers again this year.

It's kind of sad, but I've already had to use Branch 4 out of the 6 weeks, mostly covering injury/dud weeks from others, so he's been well worth the $3 already. He should serve well as a 5th or 6th WR from here on out...

 

[Balco]

After 6 weeks, who are the top value plays?

In no order:

Big Ben - $14

Orton - $12

Arian Foster - $13

Mike Williams (TB) - $8

Brandon Jackson - $4

A. Hernandez - $5

Austin Collie - $8

Rosters with a combo of these players and 3-4 selections under Kickers and D are going to be tough.

I believe Ben Watson was around $5, and that's a steal.

No question. My trio of Zach Miller, Ben Watson, and Aaron Hernandez at TE have been huge for me. Especially the last couple of weeks.

 

[HALtheCOW]

I have so enjoyed being part of this contest and reading this thread every week. I went with a large roster with 4 Kickers and 4 Defences--those extra K/TD have really paid dividends. But I also bought Stafford, DA, Portis, Larry Johnson, Leon Washington, Mark Clayton, and Finley. That is $77 down the drain. The only RBs that I have left are Foster and CJ Spiller. It would be a miracle if my team survived another 2 weeks.

But I scored about 180 this week and I happy to have made it this far. Maybe next year, I finally think that Clinton Portis is no longer a bargain.

 

[kevzilla]

I am averaging ~190 points per week, but the Turk will come for me unless the Titans D goes crazy in the second half. When I get the confirmation, I will remove my sig line, under the "what have you done for me lately" line of thinking.

 

[H8fulHuck]

I have so enjoyed being part of this contest and reading this thread every week. I went with a large roster with 4 Kickers and 4 Defences--those extra K/TD have really paid dividends. But I also bought Stafford, DA, Portis, Larry Johnson, Leon Washington, Mark Clayton, and Finley. That is $77 down the drain. The only RBs that I have left are Foster and CJ Spiller. It would be a miracle if my team survived another 2 weeks.But I scored about 180 this week and I happy to have made it this far. Maybe next year, I finally think that Clinton Portis is no longer a bargain.

I think Portis was on my roster last year too, but was able to resist rostering the dark side this season. Took Spiller instead. BRILLIANT!

 

[H8fulHuck]

I am averaging ~190 points per week, but the Turk will come for me unless the Titans D goes crazy in the second half. When I get the confirmation, I will remove my sig line, under the "what have you done for me lately" line of thinking.

Finalist, I only got a participant ribbon

 

[kevzilla]

I am averaging ~190 points per week, but the Turk will come for me unless the Titans D goes crazy in the second half. When I get the confirmation, I will remove my sig line, under the "what have you done for me lately" line of thinking.

Finalist, I only got a participant ribbon :(

Titans pic six ruled down by contact.C'mon, Man!

 

[rustycolts]

Lewis fumbles in red zone end of 2nd half need him to score.He stinks.I'm still tryin come on magic venting thread its worked for others.Need 5 points.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I own Branch, but yesterday may very well be a fluke. I don't think he'll come close to those numbers again this year.

It's kind of sad, but I've already had to use Branch 4 out of the 6 weeks, mostly covering injury/dud weeks from others, so he's been well worth the $3 already. He should serve well as a 5th or 6th WR from here on out...

Yeah. I've used him four times - including yesterday. But I take no shame in that, as my WR corps was intended to be an inexpensive co-op.Every single WR on this list has helped me:Santana Moss Pierre Garcon Nate Burleson Jacoby Jones Legedu Naanee Louis Murphy Deion Branch Greg Camarillo

 

[jdoggydogg]

After 6 weeks, who are the top value plays?

In no order:

Big Ben - $14

Orton - $12

Arian Foster - $13

Mike Williams (TB) - $8

Brandon Jackson - $4

A. Hernandez - $5

Austin Collie - $8

Rosters with a combo of these players and 3-4 selections under Kickers and D are going to be tough.

I believe Ben Watson was around $5, and that's a steal.

No question. My trio of Zach Miller, Ben Watson, and Aaron Hernandez at TE have been huge for me. Especially the last couple of weeks.

No doubt. Watson, Miller, and Shiancoe have been killing it for me.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I have so enjoyed being part of this contest and reading this thread every week. I went with a large roster with 4 Kickers and 4 Defences--those extra K/TD have really paid dividends. But I also bought Stafford, DA, Portis, Larry Johnson, Leon Washington, Mark Clayton, and Finley. That is $77 down the drain. The only RBs that I have left are Foster and CJ Spiller. It would be a miracle if my team survived another 2 weeks.But I scored about 180 this week and I happy to have made it this far. Maybe next year, I finally think that Clinton Portis is no longer a bargain.

I think Portis was on my roster last year too, but was able to resist rostering the dark side this season. Took Spiller instead. BRILLIANT!

They're both on my current team

 

[QuizGuy66]

ugh, sitting at 139... 25% chance of advancing according to the sim. Here's to a low-scoring game!

Looks like the game has been kind to the entries like yours so far. Most of the big guns haven't done that much (Bironas has had the biggest game of the highly but I'm not sure how much he'll really move the cut line.-QG

 

[kevzilla]

I'm gonna need a sack, fumble recovery and TD from the Titans. Now would be good.

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

I own Branch, but yesterday may very well be a fluke. I don't think he'll come close to those numbers again this year.

It's kind of sad, but I've already had to use Branch 4 out of the 6 weeks, mostly covering injury/dud weeks from others, so he's been well worth the $3 already. He should serve well as a 5th or 6th WR from here on out...

Yeah. I've used him four times - including yesterday. But I take no shame in that, as my WR corps was intended to be an inexpensive co-op.Every single WR on this list has helped me:Santana Moss Pierre Garcon Nate Burleson Jacoby Jones Legedu Naanee Louis Murphy Deion Branch Greg Camarillo

Just noticed that I used Branch the 3 weeks I didn't use Andre Johnson. Amazingly, before this week, that was 3 weeks for my $3 Branch and only 2 weeks for my $32 Andre Johnson, though AJ has scored much more. That should change the rest of the year, assuming AJ's fully healthy now. Hopefully I'll be using both each week, as I need a flex guy with Finley gone (that's probably Chris Johnson this week, after that late TD, with Rice and Foster at RB).

 

[bro1ncos]

Why do I fear that 138.75 isn't going to be quite enough. It would have been so nice in multiple leagues if Fisher would have let Bironas try a 52yd FG at the end instead of letting CJohnson bust off a 35yd TD run.

 

[Lock]

142.45 sweating the turk

 

[Maggot Brain]

142.45 sweating the turk

Same here 142.45.....:worried:

 

[QuizGuy66]

Not sure if this covers everyone, but here's a list of the guys who played tonight, their points, and ownership percentage:

Jacksonville Defense 0 points. 1.3%

Tennessee Defense 10 points. 4.9%

Scobee 4 points. 1.1%

Bironas 14 points. 27.6% <-----

Scaife 17.3 points. 1.2%

Marcedes 9.9 points. 1.3%

The other Zach Miller 4.8 points. 1.5%

Garrard 1.45 points 0.5%

Young 9.05 points 3.6%

Edwards 6.60 points 0.9%

R Jennings 0 points. 6.9% <----

J Ringer 5.5 points. 6.0% <----

Chris Johnson 20.1 points. 13.9% <------

MJD 7.5 points. 2.1%

N Washington 1.9 points. 2.1%

Mike Thomas 16.8 points. 2.7%

MSW 3.6 points. 2.5%

D Karim 2.2 points. 0.3%

K Britt 11.3 points. 1.2%

Johnson was one of the top RBs this week. Bironas put up one of the top PK numbers for the week. Depending on how they are distributed this could bump the line a decent amount.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

It's looking grim for our hero 21-kicker guy Right now, based on the FantasyStar stats he's at:76.35+ (Garrard - 28.05)+ Chris Johnson+ Mike Sims-Walker+ (Bironas or Scobee - 14.0)C'mon 21-kicker guy! -QG

Looks like 21-kicker guy is done with 100.05.21-kicker guy - I salute you!!!! -QG

 

[Doug Drinen]

Week 6 results

Updated ownership stats

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

IMO, the most important factor in this contest is player selection, not roster size.

Part of player selection is going with studs vs. no studs. IMO, that's the more relevant discussion than roster size.Assuming that the #1 player at each skill position is considered a "stud," here are the ownership survival rates for teams with each of those top studs:Survival Rate Overall Contest Survival RateAaron Rodgers:Still Alive 2152 72.31 65.24Chris Johnson:Still Alive 1282 69.33 65.24Andre Johnson:Still Alive 1994 69.82 65.24Antonio Gates:Still Alive 388 82.55 65.24All 4 combined:Still Alive 38 88.37 65.24So for each top player, the survival rate is higher than the overall rate, and highest when you combine all 4, even though the rosters with these players are likely shorter, and shorter rosters have a lower than average survival rate. Taking out the crappy rosters without any depth at all, these survival rates would be even higher.A larger % of teams with these players will get eliminated during their bye weeks (though I have 3 of these guys, and have used none of them every week), and of course if they get injured and miss time, but if they can survive until the finals, they likely will be able to outscore teams without studs, if weeks 14-16 are like weeks 1-3. Considering that only Gates has performed as the #1 at his position so far, there's also lots of upside for these studs.I think this type of analysis is much more effective in determining if a stud/smaller roster strategy is viable than just lumping all the smaller rosters together.

Updating the survival rates of the "top stud" Rodger/Chris Johnson/Andre Johnson/Gates strategy group, none of these guys was eliminated this week, meaning 33 of 43 are still alive (76.74% vs. 46.84% overall).With most-owned Foster added to this group, they still have a 100% survival rate (16 for 16).

1199 non-Foster owners remain out of 4785 that started. A survival rate of 25.06%

Interestingly, only 37.2% of the original "top stud" strategy group had Foster (16 out of 43), well below the contest average, making me think a good number of these rosters were put together fairly hastily. However, this non-Foster group has actually survived far better than average, at 62.96% (17 of 27) vs. 25.06% for all non-Foster owners.After starting out 76 for 76 surviving 3 weeks into the contest, we lost 11 Rodgers/Chris Johnson/Andre Johnson/Finley/Foster entries (those "top stud" strategists who believed the Finley hype as #1 TE over Gates) last week and another 5 this week, leaving 61 of 76 surviving (78.95% vs. 46.84% overall). This group has still beat the average elimination rate every week, but is in trouble this coming week if Rodgers is out, joining Finley. Unfortunately, my only 2 guys with byes this week are the backups for Rodgers and Finley, so if Rodgers is out, I'm toast (but at least I've outlasted the most vocal smaller-roster bashers).It will be interesting to see if the "top stud" strategy group continues to survive much better than most through the bye weeks, despite the fact that only Gates has performed at a #1 level. Those that do survive should be in great shape for the playoffs.

Updating the survival rates of the "top stud" Rodger/Chris Johnson/Andre Johnson/Gates strategy group, 5 of these guys was eliminated this week, meaning 28 of 43 are still alive (65.12% vs. 38.40% overall).With most-owned Foster added to this group, they still have a 100% survival rate (16 for 16). We lost 1 more Rodgers/Chris Johnson/Andre Johnson/Finley/Foster entry this week, leaving 59 of 76 surviving (77.63% vs. 38.40% overall). This group has still beat the average elimination rate every week.It will be interesting to see if the "top stud" strategy group continues to survive much better than most through the bye weeks.