Thanks for the heads up.... I like the 82% odds...hopefully it's rightI don't think it's been posted, but the link works.
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- Thread starter eaglezzz
- Start date
EFD
Footballguy
I'm usually not this dumb, but I've searched everywhere I can think to find a link to either the SIM, and/or how to figure out how many people have certain players left. I'm just not seeing it anywhere on the contest pages.Can anyone point a brother in the right direction?I don't think it's been posted, but the link works.
Go to the weekly content pages, and it's in the upper right hand corner of the releases for the week.I'm usually not this dumb, but I've searched everywhere I can think to find a link to either the SIM, and/or how to figure out how many people have certain players left. I'm just not seeing it anywhere on the contest pages.Can anyone point a brother in the right direction?I don't think it's been posted, but the link works.
TheChairman
Footballguy
Not is there not the sim, but where there is Sim week of the 11.
I couldn't find it either. I found the url for week 10 and changed the "10" to "11"Week 11 Sim
Power Rankings
Thank You.
Ranked 386 for the week with a 71.4% chance. This is going to be a tough week I can already tell.
EFD
Footballguy
Thanks. I'm the only team alive with Rodgers, Gore, Nicks and Andre Johnson. Not that it means much, but I was curious about that, so thanks.Go to the weekly content pages, and it's in the upper right hand corner of the releases for the week.I'm usually not this dumb, but I've searched everywhere I can think to find a link to either the SIM, and/or how to figure out how many people have certain players left. I'm just not seeing it anywhere on the contest pages.Can anyone point a brother in the right direction?I don't think it's been posted, but the link works.
Things do not look good for me. Less than 50% chance of moving on and I think that might be generous.
CalBear
Footballguy
This is actually a pretty good roster.18 WR Guy!!!Side note - this entry has had the most WRs the entire way.
STILL IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
H8fulHuck
Footballguy
del mar
Footballguy
Changing my team name to Plain Vanilla. We have good power (#809) and are likely to survive (#872 62.0%) but we are one of the least unique squads left in the contest (#1453). I take from this that my joys will be shared with many, but the rest of you will be reluctant to share your joys with me. So enjoy all your unique zeros and I will 
all the way to week 12. 
all the way to week 12. 
Das Boot
Footballguy
Yes it is...now imagine he had gone with Vick instead of DA...This is actually a pretty good roster.18 WR Guy!!!
STILL IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
and had done a little better at TE...
and had added one more K and one more D.
That would have been a very tough team.
bonesman
Footballguy
Most unique team:
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2010/112694.php
(only ranked 1383 though)
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2010/112694.php
(only ranked 1383 though)
seatownfavorite
Footballguy
#14 power ranking but just a 75% survival. Officially lost DWill but haven't used him anyways.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tom Brady $24
Derek Anderson $6
Michael Vick $3
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DeAngelo Williams $28
Ahmad Bradshaw $18
Arian Foster $13
Willis McGahee $8
Bernard Scott $6
Brandon Jackson $4
Mike Tolbert $1
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Andre Johnson $32
Roddy White $27
Dexter McCluster $7
Legedu Naanee $7
Julian Edelman $5
Deion Branch $3
Brandon Gibson $3
Patrick Crayton $3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brent Celek $17
Zach Miller $15
Rob Gronkowski $3
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Sebastian Janikowski $2
Olindo Mare $2
Matt Bryant $2
Jason Hanson $2
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San Francisco 49ers $5
Oakland Raiders $4
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tom Brady $24
Derek Anderson $6
Michael Vick $3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DeAngelo Williams $28
Ahmad Bradshaw $18
Arian Foster $13
Willis McGahee $8
Bernard Scott $6
Brandon Jackson $4
Mike Tolbert $1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Andre Johnson $32
Roddy White $27
Dexter McCluster $7
Legedu Naanee $7
Julian Edelman $5
Deion Branch $3
Brandon Gibson $3
Patrick Crayton $3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brent Celek $17
Zach Miller $15
Rob Gronkowski $3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sebastian Janikowski $2
Olindo Mare $2
Matt Bryant $2
Jason Hanson $2
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
San Francisco 49ers $5
Oakland Raiders $4
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
I have not been paying too much attention to the contest on purpose, and now I see that I'm in the top 10 of your power rankings.crap, things just got real.
H8fulHuck
Footballguy
You're just tempting the Turk to call for your playbook. Was nice to see you if only for a week.
My official prediction for breakdown of top 1000 teams, updated for recent injuries:
Size Predicted Current Pred Rate18 190 333 57.06%19 104 186 55.91%20 96 152 63.16%21 75 122 61.48%22 79 122 64.75%23 73 131 55.73%24 69 106 65.09%25 81 107 75.70%26 58 84 69.05%27 43 74 58.11%28 38 49 77.55%29 26 42 61.90%30 68 93 73.12%
Some predicted cut-line data (according to my sim):
Highest cut was at 207.95
Lowest cut line was at 149.95
Average Cut line 176.15
Last week the 1000th best score was 161.9, according to my sim only 12.4% of the sim's were at or below this score.
Size Predicted Current Pred Rate18 190 333 57.06%19 104 186 55.91%20 96 152 63.16%21 75 122 61.48%22 79 122 64.75%23 73 131 55.73%24 69 106 65.09%25 81 107 75.70%26 58 84 69.05%27 43 74 58.11%28 38 49 77.55%29 26 42 61.90%30 68 93 73.12%
Some predicted cut-line data (according to my sim):
Highest cut was at 207.95
Lowest cut line was at 149.95
Average Cut line 176.15
Last week the 1000th best score was 161.9, according to my sim only 12.4% of the sim's were at or below this score.
it seems like a reasonable guess to me. The 176 average above seems a bit high to me. (no statistical analysis done, just going off my hunch)My team hasn't been below 170 yet thus far, whch means I'm sure the cut will be above 170, and my team will not....
While that's certainly possible, I think thats definitely toward the low end of the spectrum considering the last 4 weeks the 1000th highest score has been 161.9, 180.25, 167.45 and 169.9.
I agree that it seemed high to me too, but I think its more likely to be closer to 176 than 155. My hunch is that it'll be in the 165-168 range.it seems like a reasonable guess to me. The 176 average above seems a bit high to me. (no statistical analysis done, just going off my hunch)My team hasn't been below 170 yet thus far, whch means I'm sure the cut will be above 170, and my team will not....
TheChairman
Footballguy
The cut line will go with Foster's score.
I think the correlation between cut line and Foster's score is much stronger when he does well compared to if he does poorly. Meaning a good score by Foster will move the cut line up move than an equally bad score by Foster would shift it downward.
Just because 1551 out of 1603 guys have him, doesn't mean it would move it much right? Since I don't anticipate a huge number for him against the Jets, that's why I thought the 176 was too high; my unscientific guess is 160.8
Ok lets just take the average of the 2 then. 165.5 it isI agree that it seemed high to me too, but I think its more likely to be closer to 176 than 155. My hunch is that it'll be in the 165-168 range.it seems like a reasonable guess to me. The 176 average above seems a bit high to me. (no statistical analysis done, just going off my hunch)My team hasn't been below 170 yet thus far, whch means I'm sure the cut will be above 170, and my team will not....
Ok lets just take the average of the 2 then. 165.5 it isI agree that it seemed high to me too, but I think its more likely to be closer to 176 than 155. My hunch is that it'll be in the 165-168 range.it seems like a reasonable guess to me. The 176 average above seems a bit high to me. (no statistical analysis done, just going off my hunch)My team hasn't been below 170 yet thus far, whch means I'm sure the cut will be above 170, and my team will not....
that's good with me as long as it's lower than my teams score.
Yeah I think this will be the first week I will be sweating to make the cut. This is a great contest FBG's put on and it is worth the price of subscription all by itself. I am almost more interesting in this contest then my $150 and $100 money leagues. If I can make it to the top 250 I would be thrilled!
Go DC Yourself
Footballguy
Last year's week 11 cut line at 1000 was 159.5. As far as 2010 goes, what are you looking for is not the top 1000 from other weeks, but the top 62.5 percent in that week, as that is the group that will be moving on (1000 our of 1600 remaining). If we look at the other 2010 non-3 byes weeks , weeks 1 to 3, the top 62.5 percent was at between 157 and 161. Yes we've flushed some weaker teams out since then, but we also have more roster spots occupied with important players out for the year. So while 155 is probably too low to expect, 170 is probably too high to expect.
TheChairman
Footballguy
I don't think losing Spiller and DeAngelo will be a dealbreaker for anyone still in it.
Back in weeks 1 -3, guys like Finley and Romo were still playing.
Go DC Yourself
Footballguy
I meant from the beginning of the year. Plenty of remaining rosters contain Finley, Clark, Stafford, Mark Clayton, etc., though probably not more than a couple each. BTW, the top 62.5 percent cut from last week was in the 149s.
TheChairman
Footballguy
There are over 400 Finley rosters left in the contest.
I hope you're right. Nevertheless, as mentioned with Foster above, as we get in the final weeks of elimination, the cut line becomes more of a function of how the most highly owned players performed that week.
Saint
Footballguy
I'm pretty happy to have made it to the 1600 team cutoff to be honest. Don't get me wrong, I want to move on to the 250, but I am still happy regardless.
Unfortunately, I seem to be moving in the wrong direction. Used to be at #64 in the power rankings, but now at #247 with a 78.8% chance to move.
Here's to hoping the Turk looks elsewhere this week!
Unfortunately, I seem to be moving in the wrong direction. Used to be at #64 in the power rankings, but now at #247 with a 78.8% chance to move.
Here's to hoping the Turk looks elsewhere this week!
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Everything has to go right for me to have a chance. This means that Vincent Jackson can ride the pine. LT can get a high ankle sprain, and Vick will decide to throw it to a white tight end.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
For fantasy purposes, Brandon Marshall is done for the year. 86 owners left with Marshall.
The Ref
Footballguy
wut? I wathed the game, I didn't think they said anything about out for the year...
He is saying that with the Dolphins QB situation he will not do much.
Utter Chaos
Footballguy
He was on pace for 6 catches for 82 yards tonight before getting hurt. I'd take those numbers for my WR in this contest.Nice to see Forte finally have a decent game. Losing DeAngelo at RB leaves me with Forte, Foster, Leon, and Thomas Jones so I really need Forte to step it up.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Nopers, just the 8.0, but that's at least okay to have as a floor at Defense to start off with.-QGnothing for a shutout?
Touchdown There
Footballguy
No, I am saying the hamstring pop is a bad one. He needed the cart to get to the locker room. If you have ever had a hammy pop, then you know what is going on right now with Marshall. If not, you are probably holding out some sort of hope that will be deflated soon.Most fantasy contests do not include week 17 and he popped it in week 11. I bet he could return in week 16 or 17, but probably will not if the season is out of reach.
Doesnt look like they're going to punish him for now. Unless the urine sample comes back not clean, I don't think he see's any punishment from the team or the league.
